November 6 - 9
Because there were not a lot of "big" races on the weekend, and it being the final week of the Fall Season (for me), I opted to play the week day cards at Churchill on Wednesday thru Friday before playing three tracks on Saturday. On Wednesday I had the best day of the week-day racing. Passed the opener and ran 2nd at 3/5 in the next. But in R3, a maiden claimer, I thought Rando might be a fair price. He'd only been out twice and was off the board in both. But his Beyers were as good as anyone else's and with the first time tagged today I thought he could run well. Dueled early then smartly took back into the turn. Launched a rally in the stretch and drew off late at a nice $9.40 payoff for the first win of the week!
My pick in R5 was 3/1 and in contention into the far turn before pulling up and not finishing the race. But R6 was a solid pick in Benedetta. Her last two figures beat 61 of the 62 career numbers of the rest of the field, but she was exiting a win against entry level allowance rivals and moving into a tougher, 2nd level allowance race today. She was the pick, but what about a wagering amount? Looked at the public handicappers and she was the top choice across the board making her the "Consensus Best of the Day." Went with a double investment. But when she took a lot of money I followed along. She tracked a trio of leaders through the far turn then swung four-wide into the lane to catch them. Edged clear late to give me another win, this one with a triple investment so I collected nearly $30.
Passed the next two before scoring with Brad Cox's Liberal Arts who as a 2yo had won the Grade 3 Street Sense over this track. Would he be ready to fire off the layoff? Most Cox horses are. Tracked the leaders, swung into the clear and took command. Inside the final 16th he was tiring, but the wire came first and I had my third winner of the day, and cashed for over $30. Missed on the finale, but still a 3-for-6 day with a clear profit was an excellent start to the week!
Thursday I only had four bets, spread out over four hours. Started fifth at 2/1 odds and then had no bets in races 2-3-4. In the fifth I liked Mr. Wireless should the race come off the turf, but it did not. The "best" pick on the grass was Brad Cox's Wadsworth, but he was coming back off a long layoff, having not run since 2023 (when he ran 1-2 in four races). He was being well bet and I went with him. Took the lead in the lane by daylight and looked gone, but not quite in full condition and he was nailed in the final strides. No bet in the 6th but then ran 6th at 8/5 in the 7th.....wow. One last chance to score, in the 9th and finale....a maiden special for 2yo's going a one-turn mile. Admiral Dennis had been checked at the start, then had traffic trouble and still ran third. Looked pretty formidable in here. Tracked the dueling leaders three-wide into the turn, then cruised by to take command. Battle with a longshot to the 1/8th pole and cleared off to score.
Friday was much the same as Thursday. Five of the nine races found me without being able to find anyone with an angle to bet on. In the 2nd and 4th I ran 4th at 2/1 and 2nd as the prohibitive 3/5 favorite. The fifth was a non-winners of two lifetime turf route for 2yo's. Giocoso had finished second first time around two turns then drew off by half a dozen. That led to back-to-back graded stakes tries. Now the drop into a restricted allowance I thought he would find these rivals very manageable. Mid-pack to the turn, then split rivals into the lane....surged late and was JUST up in time! Finished the day by running third at 9/5 in the 7th. But the good news was that through three days I had won at nearly 40% and still had a clear profit.
Saturday I had not only the selections from Churchill Downs, but I'd also looked at both Aqueduct and Laurel which both had stakes races on the menu. Missed the NY opener but in the second I doubled the bet on Illuminaire in what would be, for those who follow me, a surprising pick. I'm nearly always a big fan of the Beyer figures and while I don't think they are the end-all, if a runner is not one of the top Beyer figure runners it's rare he'll get my bet. But in this case the lightly raced Todd Pletcher colt looked to be the class of the field and I believed his numbers, post race, would reflect that. In a textbook "how to ride a racehorse" trip, he tracked the leader into the far turn, all the while saving ground on the rail. Swung into the clear, collared the leader and ran home as a daylight winner.
After second at 9/5 with my first bet in Maryland it was time for the Grade 3 Hill Prince Stakes for 3yo colts on the turf in New York. As I noted in my analysis, one of the problems in this spot was that despite it's graded status, all the top tier 3yo turf runners were no shows after having run at Keeneland or the Breeders' Cup. But I did believe that Christophe Clement's Deterministic who'd won a dirt stakes in the spring on the early Derby trail, but his future seemed to lie on the grass. He had a nearly identical resume to his main rival, except that one was exiting a dismal try and Deterministic was dropping out of a good 4th vs. Gr 1 company. In a near identical race to the first winner, Deterministic was close to the pace while tracking inside. Swung out into the clear turning for home, collared the leader, pushed by and gradually edged clear for the win.
After missing in the first of the Laurel stakes, I had my first winner in Louisville. Brad Cox had two in the lineup but jockey Florent Geroux stuck with Instant Replay who was making his third start. While at this time of the year there's not a lot of difference between a high-priced $150K maiden event and today's $100K maiden claimer, it IS a drop. And he was exiting a best of the rest second behind a runaway winner in his second career start. Kept in the clear four-wide throughout he stalked the leaders to the turn and when asked blew by for a decisive win.
Missed at Aqueduct, and scored my first winner at Laurel with She Is Wisky who was the 6/5 favorite before hitting the skids on five straight picks. Snapped out of it though......
Vinobella edged clear in the final 100 yards at Churchill and then minutes later I scored in a Laurel Stakes, the Thirty-Eight Go Go when Foxy Junior was way too good for his rivals.
The national "feature" was the Grade 2 Red Smith, a marathon turf race at Aqueduct. I'd seen Shug McGaughey's Integration run in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf and on THAT day I thought he was overrated as a co-favorite (didn't hit the board). But today - in my mind - would be different. Why? First of all, in his nine career starts he'd gone winless in four Grade 1 races. In the other five he'd won FOUR of them, and was 4th over the quirky Kentucky Downs turf course. But what sealed the deal was that top rider Flavian Prat agreed to ride for the first time. In fourth while saving ground thru the far turn, he found a seam and got clear in the lane. But for about 16th of a mile he just seemed to be "running on." Suddenly he switched gears and in the blink of an eye he blew by to win going away. I closed out the day with another win at Churchill Downs when Kinetic was a 3/1 winner to give me my eighth win on the day and a profit of nearly $30.
I'll be taking next week off to gear up for the winter, and then have a weekend of "pre-season" racing when the Fair Grounds opens in two weeks. Gulfstream's Opening Day is Thanksgiving Day!
Monday was the launch of the Viking TV episode I'd filmed in late August on the Viking Neptune anchored in the Thames River in London. It was such a slick presentation and I got a lot of positive feedback. You can read the story behind the episode and watch the video replay on my "Viking TV 2" web page HERE.
Social Media this week......
CBS-Miami anchors Teri Hornstein & Lauren Pastrana provided the few social interactions of the week. Teri, in our usual weekend morning coffee exchange "talked" about my upcoming Viking TV episode, the creamers we use in our coffee and she was enthusiastic about wanting to follow my next trip.
Lauren and I exchanged comments about the election and I shared my good news about my eye injections.
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