An Afternoon at Gulfstream
Saturday: Jim Dandy Day
The opener on the big day at Saratoga - which featured Derby/Belmont winner Sovereignty in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy - was a $40K claiming sprint. Otto the Conqueror was the 8/5 favorite in the early DRF program and I thought he was a legitimate favorite. In the dozen starts since his debut win for trainer Steve Asmussen, he'd run in eight stakes races, four of them graded. He'd proven he was NOT a route runner, so I thought he'd run back to one of his top sprint races as he dropped out of a Gr 3 event to be tagged for the first time. Stumbled to his knees out of the gate - WOW - and was pushed by jockey Ricardo Santana to keep up while mid-pack into the turn. Didn't have a lot of hope, but 'Otto kept trying. Circled four wide into the lane, found another gear and surged by to score. Best of all, he was NOT the post time favorite and paid $7 for a $2 bet. And that, my friends, was the only winner of the eleven I had on the day that paid more than $4....so you can see why I didn't make a profit.
Missed with the next two, and then they were headed to the gate for the second at Saratoga, a six furlong MSW for two-year-olds. I thought the race had the look of "one of those" juvenile events that makes Saratoga what Saratoga is - a race that probably will eventually produce multiple stakes winners. So I wrote in my analysis to watch the board. But based on what I saw in the Form, Steve Asmussen's Soldier N Diplomat got my vote. The connections had paid a whopping $950K for the colt and jockey Jose Ortiz was up. He was hammered to 4/5 favoritism and looked every bit the part as he stalked the leaders, circled them to a clear lead turning for home. But he appeared to get tired as the late runners were flying, but he had enough to hold on!
I picked up my third win of the day at Gulfstream. Look at the photo above of the winning ticket from Saratoga....now look at the ticket below on the Gulfstream winner, Chaina. Do you see it? The logo for the betting platform. So here's the story....... after Monmouth had cancelled races on Friday I was afraid of a similar happening on this Saturday. I had only handicapped Saratoga, Del Mar & Monmouth and I didn't want to be left with just Saratoga races during the afternoon. So I reverted back to an old practice that I used many years ago. Back in the "old days," there wasn't a digital racing form and you had to get the Form at the bookstore and it was only available the day before. So my typical practice for a big Saturday like today would have been to pick up the Form on the way home from work and handicap all afternoon/evening. Go to the track all day Saturday and that was that. Obviously, since I was at the races playing multiple tracks I couldn't handicap for Sunday so often what I'd do is Sunday morning I'd go online and read what the public handicappers had to say about the races. There were at least a half dozen that I read regularly and I felt (then) that I'd become pretty adept at reading between the lines. So often on Sundays I'd "Handicap the Handicappers" and come up with a string of selections on the day. Typically won about the same percentage as when I did all the work. So with the situation today I decided to follow a similar pattern. Unfortunately these days, very few tracks have free public analysis and I wasn't going to buy the Racing Form just for the analysis. So I went on my Brisnet site and looked at the morning line odds, first for Gulfstream. I decided that IF there were some - what looked to be - short priced favorites and IF they coincided with what the GP handicappers posted, I'd play those. Ironically today there were six morning line favorites at 8/5 or lower. I opened the Gulfstream web site - one of the few which still post free analysis - and checked what long time handicapper Ron Nicoletti had. He used to have a full paragraph on each race, but it's now reduced to just a list of top three picks. Still, over the years - and during the winter - I've found that his and my picks are very often the same. All six of the favorite listed were also his top picks. Because I had not done the handicapping, I decided I'd play these races as part of my betting day, but rather than use my Xpressbet funds, I'd use the money that was sitting in my Twin Spires account. THUS....the different logo on the ticket. And wouldn't you know it, I'd picked an excellent day to use this old practice of mine as over the six GP races I won five and was a photo-finish 2nd! I also played two races from Woodbine but lost both of those when finishing 2nd and 3rd. Was a nice way to have more "action" and boost the winning stats for the weekend!
And it was a good thing that I'd opted for this additional set of selections because from the Soldier N Diplomat race in Saratoga's 2nd at a little after 1pm, until the opener at Del Mar with a post time of 5pm, I went 0-for-8 with a single second and two third place finishes. During that time span I scored with two wire-to-wire winners in Hallandale when Big Amadeus was a handy winner in the fifth and Timely Reward opened up a big lead then had just enough left to hold on in the sixth.
The "professional" handicappers would tell you that if you play horses like Broski in the Del Mar opener, you're going to lose money in the long run. FOR ME, I don't think you can make a blanket statement like that. To me, if you think that the short price favorite is vulnerable you look for an alternative or pass the race. But if he's indeed legitimate then you play the race and determine how much risk vs. reward you think is fair on the betting amount. And I'd argue that while if you play short priced favorites as a blanket you will lose money, if you discriminate to those you think are legitimate - and if you're a good handicapper you won't lose money. And my $1.99 ROI over 30,000 races over the last twenty years would be my supporting evidence! Broski had earned Beyer figures in his last six, all in the money finishes, which SHOULD win here. But that was the problem, he'd already gone down to defeat NINE times. But, nearly every thoroughbred will eventually find the field he can beat and I thought this two turn mile on the turf under MSW conditions was the one for Broski. Right to the front and never looked back and I cashed for nearly $20. What I found interesting as well was on Sunday there was an article about the big winners on Saturday and even with the two national highlight races seeing stars of the sport post emphatic scores, the best speed figure of the day went to......Broski!
After a non-threatening fourth in the Gr 3 Lake George at Saratoga I got my first stakes winner of the day at Gulfstream. I had made the decision to simply bet the same amount all day on the "handicapping the handicapper" selections but with the build up and betting on Scarlet Sands in the Miss Grace locally I upped the bet to a triple investment. Right to the front, opened a clear lead and lasted to the wire for my seventh winning ticket on the day.
Ran 2nd at Del Mar with DRF analyst Brad Free's Best Bet at even money and then it was time for the Grade 2 Jim Dandy at Saratoga. It was a short field of five including Derby and Belmont winner Sovereignty. My sister texted me and I told her the same thing I explained to Kim as she sat down to wat the feature race with me. I had mixed feelings. On the one hand, clearly the goal for trainer Bill Mott was next month's $1 Million Grade 1 Travers. And Mott has long been known to point his horses for a peak race. This is significant because after Sovereignty was a dazzling winner of Gulfstream's Gr 2 Fountain of Youth I thought he would be easily best in the Gr 1 Florida Derby then win the Gr 1 Kentucky Derby. He was a "good" 2nd in the Florida Derby and afterwards I could read between the lines that the goal was the first Saturday in May and the Florida Derby was a "bridge" to get to the Kentucky Derby. Could this Gr 2 Jim Dandy see the same kind of effort as another "bridge" to the Travers? But conversely, after his sensational success in Louisville, Sovereignty came back to beat the same 2nd & 3rd place runners in the Belmont - HERE at Saratoga. So was he simply just the best horse and even with a "B" effort would win today? I leaned to the latter. I told Kim and my sister that unless someone was a runaway leader in the stretch and the only way to win was to ask for an all-out effort, then I thought Sovereignty would prove best - and I backed it up with a "prime time" investment. He was a close up third into the far turn, then when the other three chasing the longshot front runner began to run, he dropped back while three wide and I had the thought, " it IS just a bridge race." But as heads began to turn for home jockey Junior Alvarado gave Sovereignty the cue and without being pushed to the max he began gobbling up ground and wore down the leaders before they hit the 16th pole and then coasted on home. Truly - he'd won for fun without being asked for his best. He will be ultra, ULTRA tough in the Travers, mark my words!
I closed out the Gulfstream plays by scoring with Hottakejake in the finale to go 5-for-6 locally. That was truly fun! The fourth at Del Mar was "one of those" 2yo MSW races where I thought more than a couple would prove talented. But as I wrote in my analysis, I didn't think Hall of Fame trainer would have entered his $3 Million OBS sales purchase, son of champion Gun Runner here - especially with a stable mate in the line-up - unless today was THE day. Brant had all the hype and wow did he deliver. Tracked the dueling leaders to the top of the lane, swung into the clear and drew off powerfully like a $3M horse and favorite should. How he paid 4/5 odds is beyond me, and on Sunday when the FanDuel analysts were discussing the races from Saturday they talked about how the connections of Brant were already mapping out a strategy towards the first Saturday in May and the Kentucky Derby.
The final winning score was my BET of the Weekend in the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap at Del Mar. Bob Baffert's Nysos had won his 2023 debut in the late fall and then cruised to a daylight score in the Grade 3 Bob Hope here at Del Mar. Began his 2024 Derby campaign with his first try around two turns and was a winner by a pole in the Grade 3 Robert Lewis, earning a massive 105 Beyer. But something went amiss and he wasn't seen again until Derby Day when he was in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs - a fifteen month layoff. He was second in a photo finish with Todd Pletcher's superstar, Mindframe who came back to dominate the Grade 2 Foster Handicap. Last month Nysos made his second start of the year in the Gr 3 Triple Bend and earned a career best 108 when drawing off for fun. How good is this guy? I thought he was/is a superstar in the making, maybe.....dare I say it out loud, as good as the OMG superstar Flightline was? Apparently everyone who was betting the race agreed with me as he was hammered to 1/9 in the early betting, but unlike most horses who are bet like that, the closer to post time it got Nysos' odds did NOT float up, even a single click. As a stretch-out sprinter and based on his one route race as a 3yo the talk was he'd probably want the lead. But Baffert had entered another horse who is a "need to lead" and would be totally committed to the front end. So now we had to determine would he duel, was he just too fast, or would today be his "learning day" to rate. That was my thought as I'd seen Baffert do this many times with his really good horses. Sure enough Nysos sat off the pace in fourth on the rail under Flavian Prat through the far turn, but two rivals kept him pinned in chasing the front running stablemate. At the top of the lane a small seam opened and Nysos shot through and drew off justifying my BIG $50 BET OF THE WEEKEND investment to win going away and geared down. So, SO very excited that if all goes well he'll be running on Breeders' Cup weekend in the Classic against likely 3yo champion Sovereignty!
Sunday on the Jersey Shore
As I've said before, you never know how Sunday is going to play out: anti-climatic to Saturday's big day, a surprisingly good day, or "just another day" at the races. On at Monmouth I had five selections on their nine race program. The day turned out to be a "surprisingly good day" BUT could have been a great day if I'd changed to decisions I made. The first came in the opener where I thought it came down to either Surf's Up for NY-based trainer George Weaver or Navy Chief. The latter had been training at Saratoga and I thought either they don't think he's good enough to win at first asking at the Spa and/or it's an either spot here. Surf's Up was the 3/5 favorite and led to the final strides before Navy Chief split rivals to win at 5/2 odds. But I came right back to score with my next selection in R3, a claiming, five and a half furlong turf sprint. I thought Speed Figures might sit just off the pace with his wide draw under Paco Lopez rather than try to duel and win the pace battle but lose the race war. To be fair I DID say that if he shot out of the gate and got the lead, all the better. Broke like a rocket and was a daylight leader before the others had taken their second stride. Paco is so "condescending" in his style, he sat chilly thru the turn as the field closed in and you KNOW he was toying with them. "We've got a chance" the other riders thought turning for home, but then he opened up and drew off for fun. Right back in R4 with Margarita Daze trained by Jamie Ness and ridden by Paco Lopez. Right to the front, looked to be in control turning for home, but was collared. Stretch duel, found enough to push his head in front in the shadow of the wire. AND was a generous 2/1 price for only the second winner of the weekend that paid more than $4. In the eighth race I wanted to bet against Unsolved Mystery on the class rise but on paper he just looked hard to beat. Right to the front under Paco Lopez. All the way to the almost-wire, then PHOTO FINISH. I thought, and the FanDuel analysts also commented that it looked like "the 2" (Unsolved Mystery) held on, but the photo showed differently (photo at right). Sigh. But in the finale Paco rode Turf Rocket to a decisive win and I finished 3-for-5 with a profit on the day!
Social Media this week.....
This week I had "real" human contact when I went to Gulfstream on Friday, though my favorite teller wasn't working but I still saw an old friend/teller. And my online contacts were highlighted by two of my former students....both of which are my all-time favorites. First, I reach out to Kimmy on a regular basis of sorts. This week I was watching TV in the family room and I "saw her peeking" over my Churchill Downs paddock brick at me. So I took a photo and texted her. I didn't need a message back, but the "heart/love" emoji was enough to bring a big smile to my face. I miss seeing that girl.
Another former student, my first WISE student that I was a mentor to, Amber is "recently" divorced and trying to get her life back on track. She posted this week she'd bought a house. Big time congrats to her and got a nice reply.
My other "heart-warming" contact came from my longest running "all time favorite," Mandy who I met when she was a sophomore in my Western High World History class. We have remained very good friends and of all my former students, we text the most often and the most frequently. So we were looking at a time to get together a couple weeks ago and she told me she and her family were going on vacation. So what really made me feel good was that, on her own, Mandy reached out to share pics with me on several days :) She is a sweet girl - and her one son - who I "met" when she was pregnant with him - is now taller than she is as he enters his high school years!
My gal-pal Karli was off from her Atlanta news anchor position for a getaway to celebrate a girlfriend's birthday. When she posted pics and I commented, she replied.
Lauren Pastrana almost always leads the way with social media contact but this week I got a couple of likes and that was it. She is usually all over social media on a daily basis, but this week hardly anything. So I didn't take the lack of contact personally - though I wouldn't/shouldn't anyway :)
It continues to be an "interesting" relationship I have with former CBS weekend anchor Teri. Went from nearly every weekend, on both days - while on the air - we would have a conversation - to just a smattering of "likes," to now two weeks in a row we've had "conversations" again.
