Summer 25: Week 8

 July 18-20

I know, and you should know, that playing the races for me is NOT a money-making endeavor.  In fact I've often said if I had to choose between a high winning percentage and a small loss vs. a low winning percentage and a profit, I'd rather have the former because it is all about the handicapping and picking the winners for me.  To make money (or come close to breaking even) is just a bonus.  So with that in mind, I'll say that I was "satisfied" with the big Saturday which was "Haskell Day" at Monmouth Park.  Considering that I lost the first seven bets and the first six of those didn't even hit the board; that I had NINE seconds including four at odds-on (and two of those were "prime time" bets).....the fact that I rallied to post eight wins, hit the national race of the day, the Haskell, two Saratoga stakes AND my BET of the Day, I was "satisfied."  And IF - I get it, you can always rationalize - but IF just three of the nine 2nd place finishes, let's pick the lowest odds runners, had won....I'd have had a profit on the day.  But Sunday was a "return to normal" kind of day.  Here's how the week played out......

Friday's abbreviated nine-race program found five selections ready for me.  But when I opened up Xpressbet I discovered that three of the five had scratched.  So the first selection of the day came in the feature, the Jersey Shore for 3yo's sprinting six furlongs.  Only three went to post and I was a best-of-the-rest second behind the odds-on choice.  But in the 8th I liked Bingo's Birkin to take an entry level allowance.  In retrospect I should have put more money on her considering her drop from an open turf stakes and that she already had won twice sprinting on the grass.  Paco was on board and she was an easy winner as the short priced favorite, so 1-for-2 on the day.

Saturday:  Haskell Day at Monmouth

The day could not have started slower as I missed on the first SEVEN wagers.  Sort of a "no surprise" as none of them were favorites and I only upped the bet on two of them.  The last of the seven was the only one to hit the board when Sacred Wish looked like she'd win the Grade 3 Matchmaker on the Monmouth turf heading for home but could never get by the favored winner.  Finally got on the board in the fourth at Saratoga.  As I noted in my analysis, I've never discovered what the "fine print" is that must occur in situations like this, which I've seen over the years on occasion.  Strong State was entered in an AOC with conditions that read, "....for 3 and up who've never won $20K other than...."  In his last, he was a winner in a first lever allowance at Churchill Downs with a $50K purse, meaning he'd earned $30K in an allowance win.  Yet, he got to run.  I was hoping for a fair price and he left the gate at a nice 3/1.  Breaking from the outside he quickly ducked in behind the leaders, got to the two path and saved ground to the top of the lane.  Split rivals, got clear and rallied by to score at $8.30.

I looked LONG GONE in the Grade 3 Monmouth Cup when the talented Just A Touch was on the lead at a paltry 1/9 price.  A challenger came to him turning for home and he got a head in front.  'Touch fought back at the 1/8th pole, but the upset was on and I was second best.  WOW.  After handicapping the Monmouth, Del Mar, and Saratoga cards I decided I wanted "more action" so I handicapped Colonial where they were running two minor stakes.  Lost money on the proposition but I did score in their fifth when Disco Rules rallied from near the back to draw off by nearly a pole.  Followed that up with a win as the favorite in a Saratoga 2nd level allowance on the turf.  I'd won three of four, but unfortunately the last two were BOTH short price favorites and all three had only had a minimum bet on them :(

The outcome for the day was sealed in the next sequence of races.  Over the next two hours I lost seven straight again, six of them in added money wagering events.  And here's the kicker....FIVE of them saw me run second.  Thoroughbred racing.....the ups and the downs.  Finally cracked the winner's circle in Saratoga's Grade 3 Caress Stakes, a five and a half furlong turf sprint.  Future Is Now had been upset by one of today's rivals in her last, but I thought today she had a much better draw and race flow.  Jockey Paco Lopez - who's the king of Monmouth but was not at Monmouth on their biggest day! - put his mare right on the hip of the 17/1 front runner and at the 16th pole let her loose and she ran off as easily best.

Lost two and put another short winning streak together with three in a row.  The first was the national race of the day, the $1 Million Grade 1 Haskell Invitational.  Were it not for Bill Mott's Sovereignty, who I'd had in both his Kentucky Derby and Belmont wins, Journalism would be unbeaten as a 3yo and probably be a leading candidate for Horse of the Year as he'd won two big graded stakes at Santa Anita; was 2nd in the Derby, closed with an amazing rush to win the Gr 1 Preakness and then was 2nd in the Belmont.  He looked MUCH the best on paper against a less than stellar field today.  Right out of the gate, trouble as he bobbled and was near the back.  He moved steadily on the turn and looked poised to go by at the top of the stretch but spun his wheels without making up any ground.  I had two thoughts simultaneously - first, he's not going to get there, but second in the back of my mind I did have the thought run through my head that he DID rocket home in the Preakness under similar circumstances.  And suddenly he seemed to realize he was losing and shot to the front in the final strides.  WOW.  Cashed the BEST of the Day at Monmouth, even though it didn't pay a lot.

Came back about fifteen minutes later with the first win of the summer at Del Mar when Arrakis took control in a maiden turf sprint and drew off in hand.  Every time I watch a race from Del Mar this summer I'll be thinking about this fall when my youngest son Brad and I will fly to San Diego and be at Del Mar for the 2025 Breeders' Cup World Championships!

Topped the trifecta of wins in the Grade 2 Vanderbilt at Saratoga.  Really the only question for me was the six furlong distance because my top choice had been one of the best sprinters in the country going seven furlongs and six and a half furlongs.  But I felt like THIS was the reason that Paco Lopez gave up all his mounts on the big Haskell Day card at his home track to retain his mount on the multiple stakes winning Book'em Danno. Tracked in third while saving ground on the rail to the top of the stretch, split rivals to get into the clear and collared the 9/5 second choice at the furlong pole.  Paco barely moved as Book'em Danno drew off handily to score!

All I had left were four races at Del Mar.  Bob Baffert's Cherry Cider was a first time starter and he went off at 4/5.  Blitzed out of the gate and took some pressure to the turn but opened up in what looked like a stellar debut.  But in the final strides he was run down to JUST miss.  It was over an hour until the next two races so I retired to the living room to watch TV with Kim.  The replays saw me run 7th and 4th at big prices.  But in the Del Mar feature, the Grade 2 San Clemente on the turf, my bet of the Day, Thought Process was oh-so-much the best and I cashed for nearly $60 on my $40 big bet.

Sunday is always, for me, a big "what's going to transpire today" kind of day because I nearly always have a full slate of races on Saturday with multiple stakes and then Sunday I am playing a few races from the track I handicap daily: Gulfstream in the winter, Monmouth in the summer.  But today turned out to be a solid day that made me feel very good about my handicapping!  I won two of five and both wins were when I went with an assumption and projection, not on what was obvious to the crowd.  In the third at Monmouth it was a two-turn mile for conditioned allowance runners.  Protected had the best figures and was lightly raced AND had Paco Lopez on board.  BUT, he'd never gone beyond a sprint distance.  At a short price I'd probably not advise betting here, and I even noted that I would be surprised if he won by a pole or didn't hit the board.  Well neither came true.  Right to the front and through the far turn was in complete control under a hand ride.  As the field started to close in Paco asked for his best and it seemed obvious to me that the distance was getting to him.  Had just, JUST enough left to survive the photo finish for the win.  WHEW!

Missed in the feature with Paco on board the "obvious" choice who didn't fire.  Then in Race 6, an entry level allowance I thought I might have something the crowd would miss in See The Truth.  Check out my analysis below.  Tracked the front three while sitting mid-pack on the rail into the lane.  Squeezed through the narrowest of openings to get to the front as a closer rallied between horses.....PHOTO FINISH, again!  And again I was on top.  The generous payout allowed me to clear a $25 profit on the day while going 40% on the day.

 

Social Media this week....
I have to say that since I've kept track of my interaction with my online pals, this HAD to be one of the most "active" weeks and made me feel like I still have a lot of friends :)  I reached out to Nancy - who Khloe & I became friends with on our Christmas Markets cruise to see how she, and her pal Amy were doing.  She messaged me back that they had just taken Amy out for her birthday.  Recently Nancy had said she & Amy were going to pick dates to come to So Fla but she's not given me any more info.  Khloe is all in to come down if the girls visit.

Kim and I have kept close tabs with our gal-pal Shelly who moved with her husband and two kids to North Carolina about ten years ago.  When I posted a photo of me enjoying morning coffee on the pool deck with our new waterfall feature, Shelly reached out to ask about the feature and said how cool it was.

My Florida Derby girl, Chloe (daughter of great pal Jeff Nelson who I worked with at Cypress Bay High) was in another local car dealership commercial that was on social media.  Chloe is SUCH a natural in these spots.  I told her that I wouldn't be surprised if she becomes the national spokesperson for the company!

I've become good friends with out Panthers Account manager Emma, but she reached out last week to tell us she has been promoted.  This week our new gal, Sophie reached out.  When I wrote back to welcome her and give her some background she replied and was nice enough to tell us that Emma had had a lot of nice things to say about us :)

I have to say, and I've said it before, how very pleased I am that our "Egyptian girl" Petra is a regular follower of nearly everything I post on FaceBook.  I reach out to her on a regular basis and it's not uncommon, like this week, for us to have a "conversation" of several message exchanges.  Such a sweet girl, I'd be so happy if she'd come to visit us.

This week was the All-Star baseball game, not that I follow baseball but it was in Atlanta.  So my gal-pal Karli, former local CBS anchor/reporter, posted about this and twice we exchanged messages about that.

I've been pleased that despite former weekend morning news anchor Teri moving to Washington D.C. with her new husband that we've stayed in touch.  I felt bad when she told me in one of our message exchanges this week that she was still looking for a job and was "going through a bit of a dark moment."  So I reached out to her every morning encouraging her to have a good day.  Seemed like she was on a girls weekend in Miami from her posts over the weekend.  Glad she seems happier.

Late in the day Saturday, gal-pal handicapper & racing analyst Acacia Courtney-Clement posted about the Saratoga races.  I happened to see it shortly after she posted it and I agreed with her and congratulated her husband on his multiple winning day.  Within fifteen minutes she'd reacted to it.  I still miss her at Gulfstream so much.

As is almost always the case, my most "contact" with online pals comes with gal-pal Lauren Pastrana.  Even for us this was an "active" week.  Over the seven days, my personal Facebook friend - yes, she's a Facebook friend from her personal page, not her professional page, we connected twenty different times.  I know most people will not think much of that, but the fact that a local TV personality and I have become such good friends that we have multiple contacts nearly every day of the week is cool to me.  Early in the week we "talked" about her prestigious 2nd place finish in a national awards contest and her latest "investigative piece."  But I was very pleased that when I sent her a morning coffee pic she sent me a heart on my pic :)

But Lauren and I had several exchanges about a fun thing she did with co-anchor Elliot Rodriguez.  They were invited to the Marlins baseball game to throw out the ceremonial first pitch.  Lauren posted videos of her son & husband coaching her and her practicing in the back yard; and of the event itself.  Looked like a fun night and I was proud of my friend for her walking out there with NO baseball or softball experience to take part in the event.  Well done Lauren!