Fall-Stars Weekend At Keeneland
Back from the epic adventure in SE Asia I found myself all alone at the house as Kim drove to the west coast of Florida to visit her family who were in town for a week. I had plenty to do as I was planning the opening weekend at Keeneland, as well as other Breeders' Cup prep races from New York and California. I also spent a great deal of time going thru all the stakes races horse-by-horse, which I've done before but this time I specifically did it for a "project" I'm partnering with my son Brad on for the Breeders' Cup. He had gone to a workshop for work about statistical probabilities and the use of AI. So he wanted to see if we could "teach" an AI to handicap like me. We began with the races while I was traveling and started with just giving her my analysis of the races. Moved up to sending her the Daily Racing Form along with my analysis and finally to letting "her" (because when she talks it's in a female voice!) pick on her own and THEN sending her my picks. She became more and more "like me" culminating with Sunday's picks where she noted, She said when we sent her my picks after she was done picking “blind”…….“Perfect, that’s actually really valuable feedback. I can see where my “Mark emulation” is still missing the mark, pun intended 😊 — here’s a clean side-by-side ledger for Keeneland, Sunday October 5, showing both my blind handicaps (done before seeing Mark’s notes) and his official selections. I’ve marked where we aligned or diverged and summarized the reasoning differences where they matter most. Improved Alignment: You can see the progression — by Oct 5, I’m syncing with Mark’s logic in 5 of 7 betting races, including all major stakes (R4, R7, R8, R9). Where we split: Race 1: I still lean too much on pace/fig over intent clues. Mark skips when intent/form is unclear. Race 6: I stay conservative with “known” turf types; Mark leans on high-variance Euro shippers with proven trainers/riders. Race 10: I sought value/angles; Mark prioritizes certainty and class superiority late in the card. “ It's been a fascinating adventure, and somewhat scary as she not only can handicap on her own, but her picks closely mirror my own and even more intriguing, her logic is the same as mine, oh my! Here's how my human handicapping played out this weekend!
On Friday Brad and I were playing together and our first race choice scratched out and then we passed the second. Ready to bet the third, scratched again. WOW. Finally in R4 our horse was live. It was a 2-lifetime sprint for juvenile fillies. I liked Kingsolver who's lone win came with today's rider, Flavian Prat on board. And her "maiden win" had come when she scored in Saratoga's Schuyllerville Stakes on their Opening Day program. Tracked the longshot while saving ground along the rail to the top of the stretch. Then Kingsolver split rivals and caught the leader in the final strides to score at 8/5 odds.
Right back in the fifth race, a Maiden Special going the unique "about seven furlongs distance" where I thought Brad Cox's second time starter, Divine Justice would relish the added ground. The son of Triple Crown winner Justify had chased a runaway winner, who'd drawn off by eight lengths at Ellis Park going six furlongs. He was two clear of the show runner, and Cox scores at nearly 30% with his second time starters. Pressed the 6/1 front runner into the lane. Collared him at the furlong pole but he would not go away. Stretch duel, head up and head down to the wire.....PHOTO FINISH. I wasn't sure but in the end I got the official bob.
Missed on the next two before it was time for the featured Grade 1 Alcibiades for 2yo fillies. This is a Breeders' Cup "Win and You're In" race. Todd Pletcher's Tommy Jo looked so much the best on paper, but like the others it would be her first time around two turns. The only filly who MIGHT have a chance was the filly who chased her home in the Grade 1 Spinaway. That one went right to the front and Tommy Jo pressed her comfortable and made her move into the lane. But she wasn't getting to her. Finally at about the furlong pole she was nearly even with her when the other rider went to a left handed stick and her rival veered out and there was some bumping and Tommy Jo was knocked off stride. She regrouped but never made a serious bid. As the analysts on FanDuel TV pointed out, the question for the stewards was first, probably Tommy Jo would have never gone by. But secondly, that kind of interference can't go without a DQ. Took several minutes but finally they took her down for interference and put up my BET of the Weekend .
Saturday was a full day, and I had a Panthers pre-season hockey game to go to in the evening. The first post for the day in New York was at 12:10 but I didn't have anyone I liked, so my first bet was in their second, the first stakes of the day.....The Discovery for 3yo's. A few years ago I went out to Gulfstream to watch the final leg of the Florida Sire Stakes and bet on an unbeaten colt who went off at 1/5. Led into the lane first time going two turns and stopped, finishing a distant second. Fast forward to last fall and it was very similar when I went out and bet on Rated By Merit. But he ran away with that final leg proving he could sprint and route. BUT those were against Florida-breds. Today he would race against OPEN stakes rivals, but cut back to a one-turn mile. I thought he looked like the lone speed to accompany his speed figures which were much better than the rest of the short field. Broke a beat slowly but quickly recovered and took a clear lead. Looked in hand to the 1/8th pole when the late runners began to close in but he had enough left and a big enough cushion to win comfortably.
About fifteen minutes after cashing the first ticket, they were headed into the gate at Keeneland for the opner. This was a 7f MSW dash and I liked Get Back Loretta who'd made her debut in a shorter turf sprint. Had a compromised trip and I thought that was probably just a prep for today's targeted race. Loved the best-of-56 bullet on the main track in preparation for start number two. Pressed a longshot front runner to the lane, edged to the front and was immediately confronted on the outside by two rivals, (she's on the rail in the photo below) but she dug in and held on determinedly to score as the 7/5 favorite. Two-for-two baby!
Ran fourth at 9/2 in a graded stakes in NY before another 2-lifetime 2yo event went to post at Keeneland. In what looked on paper to be a two-horse affair, Wesley Ward's Outfielder looked much the best to me. As I noted, probably not a "smart bet" since she was moving to the main track after running on the turf, but clearly they'd had high expectations after being a runaway winner in the spring here on the turf and then shipping to Europe to run in a Group event. Dueled to the far turn, took the lead and was soon confronted by the 9/5 second choice, but she would not let her past and I had my third winner of the day.
The fifth at Belmont was next on my sheet. This was a 2yo Maiden Optional Claiming race with a big $75K price tag. Devilish Grin looked to be a daylight winner on paper. After running in two turf sprints she was entered in the PG Johnson Stakes around two turns at Saratoga and ran a sharp third. Doubled the bet on the 8/5 favorite. Ran mid-pack, comfortably to the top of the lane, blew by horses and was in the clear turning for home. Collared the leader but that one had something in reserve! Head bobbing stretch duel......OH SO CLOSE, PHOTO FINISH! JUST up on the wire, whew!
Won right back on at Keeneland where Tenacious Leader got to the front with 200 yards to go and held off the late runners at a generous 9/2 price allowing me to cash for nearly $60 on my minimum bet - whooooo hooooo. Ran 3rd with a 4/1 price play in Belmont's Grade 1 Frizette and then scored yet again in another "about 7 furlongs" event at Keeneland under AOC nw2x conditions with Tap Into This. He also paid a nice price, $7.82 for a $2 bet.
At this point it was about 3pm and I'd won with six of seven bets. I'm having a very good day. But "back to reality" as I missed on the next five, three in graded stakes. In the Grade 1 Champagne at Belmont, It's Our Time looked so tough and was the 2/5 choice on the board but struggled to hold fourth. You never know, even when you know! Got back on track when I bet on layoff returning, former graded stakes winner Tamara at Santa Anita in the Grade 3 Chillingworth going six and a half on the main track. That very conservative conditioner Richard Mandella brought her back in a stakes was convincing evidence for me that she'd run back to her form from a year ago. Tracked the leaders to the far turn, then glided by without being asked and drew off in hand by a pole. Sheeeeee's back! Maybe goes to the Breeders' Cup next!
Missed on the next three, including the Grade 1 American Pharoah for 2yo's at Santa Anita when Bob Baffert's Desert Gate went right to the front as the 4/5 favorite and just failed to last finishing 2nd. The Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity to 2yo colts, a "Win & You're In" Breeders' Cup event for the BC Juveniles was next at Keeneland. And like Friday, the clear favorite appeared to be Spendthrift Farm's Todd Pletcher runner. Ted Noffey - like Tommy Jo yesterday - had never been two turns, but the way he'd run and won those graded stakes at Saratoga he looked really strong. Sent off at 4/5 he pressed the 9/1 front runner while looking to be full of run to the turn. Edged to the front without even trying and once heads turned for home he exploded in a scintillating performance. Drew off with commanding authority to stamp himself the clear favorite on the Future Stars Friday card at the end of the month. Just a WOW run through the lane.
Ran second and fifth in the next two and then I had to leave for the Panthers game. The good news was we won convincingly 7-0. The bad news was the game went a lengthy 45 minutes longer than usual because our arch rival Tampa had called up half a dozen minor leaguers to try and intimidate us by starting a fight at every turn. SOOOOO many whistles and penalties....
I missed out on an additional winner while at the game because I'd noted that IF Strong Melodee were to break his maiden in R5 then I'd be even more inclined to wager on Ocean Bear in a 2yo allowance in R7. But because I had to make my bets and leave I only made the first one. When I got home and watched the replays I saw 'Melodee win narrowly. So I PROBABLY would have bet, and Ocean Bear won at a nice 2/1 price. So it goes.
Of the final three races on my selection sheet, only Wesley Ward's 2yo Heartily was an added money bet. He was a first timer for Ward who'd been working lights out. Added bonus points when the DRF analyst who I know rarely to pick the favorite heaped praise on the debuting youngster. Right to the front and drew off by the length of the stretch to cap an amazing 10-for-24 day. YOWZA.
Sunday, as is often the case after a successful Saturday, I wondered how the picks would play out to impact what had been a solid weekend so far. And with seven bets in ten races I wondered if I was too lenient in playing. Not that it really would have made a difference, but the improving AI program went through the Daily Racing Form and had three pass races - the same ones I passed - and five of the seven races we agreed on the selection! After passing the opening two races I liked an upset pick in the third. The rider - in my opinion - waited to long to commence the rally and was a belated third at 4/1. The fourth was a maiden two-year-old turf mile event and for me, Patrol Squad Six was the clear choice. Typically - not always - but with young horses if they suddenly run a big figure, you're going to get that again. And when he was 2nd last out he earned a figure that would win most 2yo maiden races at Keeneland by open lengths. Doubled the bet. Was mid-pack to the turn then began picking off horses to reach contention into the lane. But instead of running by with a burst of acceleration he was gradually gaining....oh this will be close, JUST up in time!
Passed the fifth before we came to a conditioned allowance in a five and a half turf sprint for R6. I didn't think anyone stood out and debated about passing the race. But Kuwaitya was a Euro import and almost always the Euros are better than the North Americans. But her TimeForm figures seemed to show she was about the same level of competition. The key for me was top rider Flavian Prat was on today. And as I said, in these kind of races it's about trip and racing luck and I'll trust Prat any day. Listed at 5/1 in the program I was taken aback when she opened at 8/1 and drifted even higher. With about five minutes to post I hesitated on pulling the trigger. Cold on the board because she really IS too slow? Or do I have better insight than others? I went with the bet. Immediately when she broke sharply and sat third on the rail in a perfect spot I knew I had a chance. The odds floated to 9/1 as they hit the far turn, and up another click when they turned for home. The leaders drifted off the rail and Prat had smartly stayed up. Shot through the opening and drew clear. OH MY......the giant payoff meant I'd be a big winner for the day regardless! WHOOOO HOOOOO squared :)
The seventh was a 2yo MSW sprint where NINE of the eleven were first time starters. It's funny because several years ago in my handicapping, if I turned the page and it was a 2yo race, especially a maiden 2yo race I'd just turn the page and move on. Not any more. Sneaky Good was a $450K sales grade with sharp works for Brad Cox with Irad Ortiz on. I noted to watch the board. From the opening she was the favorite, but what I liked was she was not the prohibitive favorite as she hovered between 8/5 and 9/5. Bet the minimum. Broke on top and quickly was engaged by the 5/2 second choice all the way to the top of the lane. Set down by Ortiz she quickly burst clear and won by open lengths as her price floated up to a generous 2/1 allowing me to cash my third winning ticket of the day for nearly $20.
The first of the three stakes races was next, this one the Indian Summer for 2yo's sprinting on the turf with intentions of getting into the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. I was intrigued by Wesley Ward's Schwarzenegger here. He was still a maiden but his lone start I thought pointed out the highly regarded colt. He'd been sent off at miniscule 3/5 odds and in spite of having no company on the front end he broke like a rocket and blistered the opening quarter in :21.2 and half in :44.4. Way too fast and he drifted out. I thought with one under his belt he'd be much more professional under jockey John Velazquez who had won FIVE races yesterday. Broke a half step slowly but quickly went to the front and you could tell Johnny V was rationing his speed. Got clear into the stretch, opened up and had plenty left to last to the wire. I'd doubled the bet so I cashed AGAIN, this time for another $30 plus beans. I'm having a day.....again!
The only disappointment of the day came in the featured Grade 1 Spinster where I had some reservations about 2024 Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna. IF she ran her race she would be a daylight winner. But twice this year she'd run "well" but not sparkling efforts. She'd been life and death to hold on in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign and I thought there was the chance she wouldn't fire. I bet $20 instead of going all in, and felt even more comfortable about that considering how the races had gone so far. Pressed the leader into the far turn but when asked, no response. The winner was an 18/1 wire-to-wire winner in a short five-horse field. Racing.....you never know :) The weekend's finale was another 2yo stakes, the Grade 2 Bourbon, a "Win & You're In" for the BC Juvenile Turf. And like the early 2yo races of the weekend, it was Todd Pletcher & Spendthrift Farm's runner. Final Score was unbeaten and had gone wire-to-wire in his previous wins. I completely agreed with the FanDuel analysts who were against on the premise that he wouldn't have a "loose on the lead" trip today. But I also thought he was simply the better colt. Burst to the front but was immediately confronted by two longshots. Often the front runner is compromised not by how fast they are going but by being under pressure. It seemed to me that Irad Ortiz was riding him like he was indeed all alone in front of the "real runners." Burst clear when they turned for home and drew off with authority capping an amazing 5-for-7 day as I cashed this ticket for another nearly $40.
For the weekend I'd put together back-to-back-to-back big win pct days with clear profit on each of the three days. Oh I love the racing game and often it likes me as well :)
Social media this week.....
First and foremost - this week was our youngest son Brad's birthday on Sunday!
I am eternally grateful that our girl Petra and I have stayed close friends since our time together on the Nile River two years ago. She and I connected over dessert servings and when I asked if she'd help me with a video she met me on the top deck. Her heart-felt hug and saying she was sorry the trip and our time had ended comment has stayed with me as we connected on Facebook. And because of our connection it's not uncommon that on a somewhat regular basis we'll catch one another online and have a five or ten minute conversation. I am so very hopeful she will one day travel to Florida and she's said she wants to do that. This week we chatted about her trip to Istanbul.....so proud that she travels on her own and is seeing the world.
Over our nearly three week trip to SE Asia I enjoyed very much sharing "best of pictures" with Teri. Since leaving So Fla where she was the CBS Weekend Morning News anchor we've stayed connected and I'm glad she still wants to come along virtually on our trips. This past adventure NINETEEN times she "liked" and/or commented on my pics & messages. This week I sent her "our traditional coffee" photo (because we both enjoy Wawa with Italian Cream) and told her truthfully I won't ever go for coffee without thinking of her :) Got two hearts back on that :)
It's funny, to me, my online "relationship" with Lauren. Sometimes we'll message back and forth multiple times in a week. Other times all I'm rewarded with is the "heart" that she liked my message; and on some limited occasions she somehow doesn't see them. This week was one of being "liked" a lot. But (a) I'm happy that we are friends and she recognizes our relationship, and (b) I truly believe that I'm not just one of many she sees on her Instagram feed - and that's because it's very common, such as this week when messaged her, that I get a "heart" within minutes so I know I'm not one of several messages she's scrolling through clicking the "like" button over and over again. Lauren did an important story this week about one of her co-workers (who've I've watched for years) and her battle with breast cancer. I'm proud of my friend that she does such stories and it's rare that I see any of the other anchors do these kind of stories.
Trip flash-back......I am so appreciative that so many people followed our trip. And for me personally, that so many of my good friends, that I keep in touch with online, are nice looking girls - that is a nice ego boost for me :)
No comments:
Post a Comment