Belmont Stakes Week

June 17 - 21:  Let The Triple Crown Begin!

It was an interesting week of handicapping, but certainly, CERTAINLY the highlight of the week was the big day Saturday as the Triple Crown kicked off.  And with the pandemic created chaos in every aspect of life, this year the Belmont would be run at nine furlongs and be the FIRST leg of the Triple Crown rather than the final leg.  The "most interesting" take from the week as a whole was the up-and-down nature of the results, but note at the end of the week (as always) I hit my regular numbers:

Let's see how the week played out......

Wednesday June 17

Today I didn't like the looks of the Gulfstream card, especially with so many turf races and lots of rain in the area.  I looked around and found that both Delaware - which was opening today (and WITH fans allowed on site) and Canterbury (also allowing fans, limited to specific players) both had stakes races today.  So I decided to play them both.  Was 4th as the 3/2 favorite in the opener at Delaware, passed the second, then in the third I went wire to photo finish in the third with LaBabia.....

WIN!  OK, here we go for the week.  But that was it.  Short priced favorites couldn't get it done (5th at even money in the 7th, 3rd at 4/5 in the featured Obeah Stakes, and 2nd at 1/9 in the first of the Canterbury stakes).  A very disappointing start to the week.

Thursday June 18

Today I only played the Belmont card and how ironic how the results turned out compared to yesterday.  I was sixth at 3/1 in the Thursday opener at New York and I have to admit the thought of "here we go again, just like yesterday" ran through my mind.  But in the 2nd I liked Invest in a non-winners of two lifetime going a one-turn mile.  It was a lot like the analysis for race on - IF he ran back to his best races, Invest would wire the field.  If he didn't like the pick in the opener, he'd be a vulnerable pick.  Right to the front, set wicked splits and held on to score as the prohibitive 3/5 favorite.

Passed the third and fourth.  The fifth was a 7 furlong turf event for non-winners of three lifetime.  The only time Shiraz had run in a restricted race it was washed off to the main track, so I felt confident in tossing that one.  TWICE in her past performances she'd run well at this unique, elongated turf sprint distance - a sharp runner-up effort in a second level allowance and a close third in an open entry level allowance.  Big numbers, a good post and experience at the trip.  Duh.  Pressed the leader into the turn and took over willingly.  A late closer made a belated run but it was far too late.

I'd tripled the bet so I cashed for over $40 on my second win of the day.  Didn't like anything in the sixth.  The seventh was a second level allowance going a one-turn mile and a sixteenth on the main track.  It's All Relevant had already won a second level allowance so he was running for the required $62.5K tag.  Got a weight break with the bug boy up who'd been on board for the most recent win going a one-turn nine furlongs.  Right to the front as the 7/5 favorite and drew off in near course record time.

Three for four heading into the featured 9th, the Critical Eye Stakes after passing again in the eighth.  After scanning the field's past performances it seemed very obvious - to me at least - that the winner would be one of the two favorites.  Either Chad Brown's improving filly More Mischief or Graham Motion's established runner Ratajowski.  And it was the latter that looked difficult to go past.  She had won at four different distances, had a stakes win in a spot like this, was dropping out of a pace-setting fourth in a Grade 2 around two turns to cut back to today's one-turn mile and MOST especially was 4/3-0-1 here at Belmont.  Right to the front and dueled with the even money favorite through every quick splits.  But opened up into the lane then led off the closer who came too little too late.

FOUR - for - FIVE on the day and more than $50 profit.  Now THAT is more like it.

Friday June 19

It was "Belmont Eve" and I played Churchill Downs and Gulfstream Park today.  And as the day opened I thought to myself, "now we're rolling..." because the first race at Gulfstream was an off-the-turf sprint and Dark Ages was my main track selection.  He was 2/1 as they loaded into the gate, but was 1/1 as he crossed the wire.  Patiently handled in fifth, ridden confidently by Paco Lopez blew by in the stretch.  Only had the minimum wager on board.

Passed the next two, then in the fourth I thought the two favorites would decide it.  I liked USS Colton who'd been on the front end, dueling in fast fractions vs. better last time.  Right to the front, wire to wire comfortably.

Doubled the bet and cashed for nearly $30.  But that was it for the day - two second place finishes through the final eight picks on the day.  Sigh.....

Saturday June 20:  Belmont Stakes Day

I considered originally playing several different tracks, but Belmont had such a big card and I had quite a few selections that I limited my play today to four racing venues:  Belmont, Churchill, Santa Anita, and Woodbine.  Because Kim was out of town (left yesterday morning for ten days) I was happy to have racing from before noon until after 9 pm!  I missed in the first pick of the day, the Gr 1 Woody Stephens.  Went back and forth between my pick and No Parole.  No Parole was going to be in front but he was really stepping up in class and I thought there was other pace.  Nope, no one went with him and he wired the field at 3/1.  In the third at Belmont everyone remarked that the top two favorites - both 3yo fillies - were bound for graded stakes as they were ultra-talented.  And everyone seemed to believe as I did that Indian Pride looked much more primed for a big effort today for Chad Brown while Mrs. Danvers would probably need one.  Indian Pride dueled to the top of the stretch then took over willingly and ran away as much the best.

Came right back and picked up my only win of the day at Woodbine when Pink Lemonade wired the field as much the best.  Up next was the Grade 2 Pennine Ridge at Belmont which featured Decorated Invader.  He'd just missed in his 2yo debut, then won for fun.  In his first try vs. winners he won the Grade 1 Summer at Woodbine.  Had a miserable trip in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, then came back to begin his 3yo year to close down the Cutler Bay Stakes on Florida Derby Day from well off the pace as MUCH the best.  My only question today was would he get the pace to run into?  Jockey Joel Rosario placed him up close in third on the rail and as they came out of the far turn he was pinned along the rail, but Joel asked and Decorated Invader bulled his way through the narrow opening.  Got to the front and once clear he accelerated to win impressively.

I'd tripled the bet and was now on a three race winning streak.  But that came to a skidding stop as I ran 10th and 6th with my next two before getting third at Churchill.  Then another dull effort when fifth at 8/5 at Woodbine.  Next up was the fifth at Churchill where I had a minimum bet on Diamond Crazy.  Sent off as the 9/5 favorite he was taken near the back to the top of the stretch.  Tried to find room, blocked.....found a seam, shut off.  Shifted back inside, got room, split horses and in the final 100 yards got clear sailing and he drew off for fun.

The Grade 3 Wonder Again going a mile on the turf at Belmont was next.  Todd Pletcher's Sweet Melania looked very strong to me.  The concern was, if as a front runner she was forced to go too fast and/or duel.  But in here she looked loose on a lonely lead.  Sure enough, right to the front in control by about a length to the top of the lane.  It appeared to me that jockey Jose Ortiz had a ton of horse underneath him and as her head straightened for home he asked for run.  The response was immediate and she accelerated away to draw off as MUCH the best.

Cashed for nearly $25 on my fifth winner of the day and second graded stakes win of the afternoon.  Churchill Downs had two stakes events on their program and the first one was up next, the Audubon Stakes for 3yo going a mile and an eighth on the turf.  I liked Field Pass in here while acknowledging that the field was wide open.  What was puzzling was the pace flow.  But I felt like Field Pass would be up close today.  He'd been well back last time out for the first time in many starts last time out when he had a two race winning streak - in stakes - snapped.  Tyler Gaffalione surely could read the Form the way I was, right?  Indeed.  Right to the front and never looked back drawing off as an easy winner.

Cashed for $25.  Next was the first from Santa Anita.  It's not uncommon, but it's not typical either that a race/win unfolds like this one did.  Last time out in a Maiden Special turf sprint like this, Count Alexi went right to the front, opened up and was clear into the lane.  Today she was coming back after being caught late as Brad Free's BEST BET.  I typically do NOT like to go against Mr. Free.  But in that race Utalknboutpractice was more than 20/1 and walked out of the gate.  But then he came flying to be fourth of ten beaten less than three lengths.  Top rider Flavian Prat was taking over and I saw her as sitting just off the lead and running by late for a barn that wins with 2nd time starters at a 27% clip.  Right out of the gate Count Alexi broke sharply as did Utalknboutpractice.  But Prat let her go and immediately she was daylight in front!  WHAT??!!!  Never looked back as much the best.

Missed at Woodbine before coming right back to So Cal where they had two stakes events, and the first of them was the Grade 3 Wilshire in the 2nd race.  This one mile turf looked to be a difficult task to separate Toinette and Keeper Ofthe Stars with the latter having recency over the former.  But Toinette was a perfect 4-for-4 at Santa Anita, 4-for-5 at the distance and had Flavian Pratt.  And while 'Stars looked good, her two recent wins in graded stakes had come at 36/1 and 7/1.  Outran her odds?  I went with Toinette as did the crowd.  Tracked a longshot to the top of the lane and took off while 'Stars struggled to keep up.  Toinette drew of in a zip code all to herself.

Collected over $25 on my fourth stakes winner of the day.  Today I had two BIG TIME bets and the first of which came in the 8th at Belmont, the Grade 1 Acorn for 3yo fillies.  On March 7th - the last time I was actually able to go to the track, I'd seen something I'd never witnessed before.  In the program at Santa Anita a horse was 3/5 as a first-time starting maiden.  YOWZA.  Gamine had been a $1.8 Million sales grad and was blistering the track in the morning.  She blitzed the competition as much the best.  She showed up next time out in an allowance at Oaklawn going a mile and a sixteenth and her main rival today was a proven stakes runner.  Shipping and two turns for the first time, she set out on the lead, was challenged but repelled that filly to hold on gamely.  You COULD have looked at that and said she didn't want a distance of ground.  I however felt like this was the kind of race that would move her forward and today's one-turn mile seemed idea.  Right to the front under Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez she seemed to go too fast when the opening half mile stopped the clock at :45 and change.  But as they turned for home she accelerated to a double-digit length lead and drew off with each and every stride.

Geared down in the final 16th as she crossed the wire announcer John Imbriale called out she was FIFTEEN clear of the field.  Then noted it was the FASTEST running of the Acorn since it's inception in 1931, and the biggest margin of victory.  This filly is ultra special.  There was even a little chatter following the race that MAYBE she'd be seen on the first Saturday in September in the Kentucky Derby rather on Friday in the Kentucky Oaks.  "Prime Time" play got me back nearly $35.

Missed at Woodbine, again.  In the 8th at Churchill it was a maiden special going a one-turn mile and I really thought Chad Brown's Union Maiden would show dramatic improvement here.  Debuted at 4/5 at Gulfstream and hit the gate while away last under Javier Castellano.  Hmmmm.  Off for three months he was AGAIN away at the back (10th of 12) under Castellano and closed.  With new rider Tyler Gaffalione sure to get him out better I thought the added ground would play well.  Tracked the leaders up close in third - good job Tyler G - made his move at the top of the lane.  Dueled, JUST up in a three-way photo finish.

Missed with enigmatic Hidden Scroll in the Grade 1 Jaipur, a six furlong turf sprint at Belmont, then off to Louisville for their featured Grade 2 Wise Dan at a mile and a sixteenth.  And in here I looked, I really did for someone to beat the favorite.  But simply put no one in the line-up looked to be able to put pressure on the favorite Factor This.  And if he was loose, as he was last time out wiring a stakes field, he'd be tough to beat.  Ironically from the get go he was under pressure today.  But once he put away the early challengers, in the final 16th of a mile he would NOT let anyone by and he won in a gutsy effort as the even money favorite.

Missed at Woodbine, yet again.  And now it was finally time for the Grade 1 Belmont and the beginning of the 2020 Triple Crown.  I'd seen Tiz the Law run in Gulfstream's Grade 2 Holy Bull and thought that day that maybe I'd just seen the Kentucky Derby winner.  I thought also he was a play against in the Florida Derby because he was skipping the Fountain of Youth and thought that with enough points to make the Derby the Florida Derby wouldn't be a "full out must win" kind of effort.  So I went against him there and he was ULTRA impressive that day.  With the changes in schedules and the three-year-old contingent heading to the Triple Crown I thought before looking at the pp's he would be best here.  Looked carefully at the field and no one, and I mean NO ONE was good enough to beat him.  I told Jeff (who was driving from California to Floria) and my buddy Jeff Nelson who both asked via text that I'd looked and someone else COULD win because it was horse racing.  But there wasn't anyone in here you could make a case for, at all.  My son Jeff and his buddy from Kansas, David Beatty both had me place a big bet on him.  Mr. Nelson - always looking for a price - asked me, who did I like second best.  Again, I told him.  No one.  It's Tiz the Law, period.  And told him that one was my BET of the Day.  He sent me money and had me go $50 across the board on a 25/1 runner.  I asked him if he had a "reason?" He said his golf swing is always left, so he wanted to bet "Fore Left."  OK, it's your money I said.  That one pressed the second choice Tap It To Win to the top of the stretch but then Tiz the Law took over willingly and ran away as TONS the best.  He's clearly the top three-year-old in the country at this point.

Tiz the Law's Belmont win led to a collection of over $50 and was my 7th stakes win of the day, my 12th winner overall.  I'm having a great day.  I briefly thought about passing on the late Santa Anita races.....how many more could I win?  But then I decided, no....I handicapped the races, I'm betting them.  Really thought Digital Age for Chad Brown would win the 11th, an allowance at Belmont but was pace compromised off the layoff and was a good second.  In the seventh at Santa Anita, stakes winner Ax Man was coming back for Bob Baffert after dueling in a sprint stake to this route allowance.  Looked like the speed of the race.  Led into the lane, was collared by the second choice who put his head in front with a sixteenth to go but Mike Smith and Ax Man would not surrender.  Came back....PHOTO FINISH....

Got the nose down first....whooo hoooo.  In the eighth at Santa Anita at first I didn't have a solid opinion.  But DRF analyst Brad Free pointed out that last time out when Brickyard Ride won on the main track, his half mile split of :43.4 was the fastest half mile in a 6f sprint in five years at Santa Anita.  Looked loose on the lead and long gone.  Sure enough, burst out of the gate and was long, long gone, sizzling the opening half mile in :44 and change then holding the field safely at bay late.

The ninth was the featured Grade 3 Laz Barrera for three-year-olds going six and a half furlongs.  And as I said in my analysis, you could make the case that Bob Baffert's speedy Ragtime Blues MIGHT wire the field, but I thought Collusion Illusion would run him down and be very tough to deny today.  The race played out the way I thought, but when they turned for home Ragtime Blues was on an open lead and cruising.  But then Flavian Prat asked Collusion Illusion to run and in a matter of a 16th of a mile he'd collared the leader and then ran away like like that one was tied to the rail.  BIG time win - the announcer commented, "he's a SERIOUS race horse."

That was my EIGHTH stakes win today.  WOW.  The race left the gate at about 7:30 and my last bet wasn't until  a little after 9 pm so I went into the living room and continued re-watching the Jennifer Garner series, "Alias" for an hour before watching the replay of the finale from So Cal.

The 12th was a starter optional claimer and I really didn't have high expectations - not because I didn't think my selection of Shadow Sphinx wouldn't win.  But honestly, I'd won 15 of 25 races today.  Come on... get real.  But nope.  Shadow Sphinx was a tepid 9/5 favorite under Flavian Prat; sat just off the leader until they turned for home then took off and won as easy as you please.

For the day.....

Belmont Stakes Day Highlights

Just an amazing day.

Sunday June 21
Well you had to figure that the numbers would "balance out" but even I didn't figure to go 0-for-14 to start the day.  The lone win came in the final play of the day (good for me to "keep firing!") when Bob Baffert's first time starter, Provocation was tons, TONS the best.  The $350K daughter of Into Mischief had been entered for a STAKES RACE last week - as a first time starter.  WOW, Baffert must be really high on her.  And she went right to the front, opened up by daylight.  Mike Smith never moved a muscle as she aired by nearly a pole.  BIG TIME future.

So ended the week.  I'll take a 36% week any day of the week.  Of course I loved Saturday and if it came at the expense of the "slow days" then so be it.

Phipps Week: June 10 - 14

What An AMAZING Week Of Handicapping

"You can't win them all."  Every sport says that, and there's no place where it's more true than in thoroughbred racing.  But I don't think you could envision a better five day week of handicapping and racing than this past week - which DID include a day where I DID win them all :)  Let's just get the big, gaudy numbers out of the way.....

How astounding is that?  Especially for a guy that plays for fun and doesn't invest big dollars?  Just one big day after the other.  Here's how it all played out.....

Wednesday June 10:  Gulfstream Park
Last week the racing re-opened in New York with racing at Belmont, but this week their first card of the week was on Thursday.  So if I was playing today - which was "eye-injection day" - it would be strictly at Gulfstream.  They had a feature race for three-year-olds that could easily have passed for a graded stakes as it attracted the winners of the Gr 2 Fountain of Youth, the Gr 3 Sam Davis, the Hutcheson Stakes, the Limehouse Stakes and the Smooth Air Stakes.  For the day I had five selections from the ten race card.  Missed in the opener then passed four in a row.  The last four picks took place while I was waiting to have my eye treated.  In the sixth it was a two-lifetime claiming event on the turf going five furlongs.  And I thought Remaster was a legitimate DRF Best Bet.  Two of her last three were vs. better and the three identical Beyer figures beat all but four of the combined 66 numbers on the page.  Surged in mid-stretch to edge clear late to score as the first winner of the week.

Dueled to the stretch before fading to 4th at 6/1 in the next.  Then in the eighth I thought I had a legitimate alternative to the favorite.  Heir Ball was sent to the front and dueled through wicked splits last time before weakening to be a best of the rest 2nd as the prohibitive favorite for $16K.  Today she was in an AOC with a $25K tag, which she carried having already won an entry level allowance.  But she was first off the claim for David Carlos who wins at a 37% clip with those.  Oh my.  Doubled the bet.  Right to the front and scored a wire-to-wire win.  But check the price out....

The morning line on Heir Ball was 7/2 and she floated all the way up to 5/1 and change - whooo hoooo.  This helped offset the fact that in the 3yo feature my worst fears came true when my top pick, the 6/5 favorite got caught in a speed duel and set up the late close from the legitimate closer in the field.  Still, I went 2-for-5 on the day and made over $40.  No complaints about that my friends!

Thursday June 12:  Belmont Park
For today I gave a cursory glance at the entries for Gulfstream and Churchill but like the looks of the Belmont card more, especially because they had a featured stakes event today.  Missed in both the second and the third before arriving at race four which was a maiden claiming event going a one-turn mile and a sixteenth.  There figured to be a heavy favorite, but I didn't like him despite the fact that it was a Chad Brown runner who'd been narrowly beaten in second twice.  I went with Creed, sent out by Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey.  Long known for NOT having them ready at first asking, you have to be paying attention when they DO run well first out.  Creed had debuted at the demanding seven furlong distance over the deep, sandy surface at Tampa Bay and closed strongly to be a good second in debut.  This stretch out off a solid beginning was ideal I thought.  Four horses dueled to the top of the stretch, included in them was the favorite.  Meanwhile Jockey Jose Ortiz waited patiently then blew by to win going away.  Creed paid a generous $7.60 so I cashed for nearly $40.

Had the obvious 6/5 favorite in the fifth, but he blew the turn into the lane and went at least ten wide, second.  Fourth in the 8th and then in the featured Flat Out Stakes going a mile and 3/8th I was against the Belmont winner Sir Winston.  He'd won the mile and a half Belmont as a big longshot and suddenly he's a "good" horse?  AND making his first start off the shelf and against older?  Nope.  I went with Todd Pletcher's Moretti.  Besides some other positives what appealed most was that no one and I mean N-O O-N-E in here would want the lead and Moretti was the ONLY one who'd EVER raced close to the front.  Now if jockey Javier Castellano could just see this.  Sure enough.  Right to the front, never took any pressure and took them easily wire-to-wire at a big 4/1.

Closed the day 2-for-6 but with two nice priced winners to score a $20+ profit for the day.

Friday June 13:  Churchill Downs
Again, shopped around for what card looked best.  And one thing that I was aware of was that today we'd be driving to Orlando so there'd be little time for handicapping and decision making.  I settled on the card from Louisville and had only four picks on the day.  Figured it would be a light day of racing generally and obviously a small number of winners.  But as is often the case, it's days like this where I have a big, winning day.  It's one of the things I love about racing.....you just never know when and where you're going to be a winning player!  The opener under the iconic Twin Spires was a pick that if you follow my handicapping, you'd NEVER have guessed I'd have been betting on.  The opener was a 6 1/2 furlong maiden claimer.  And while I often say there are "no rules" in handicapping, it's rare that I'll even consider a maiden who's already had six or more chances as a legitimate bet.  Much less one with double digit losses, MUCH LESS with fifteen, that's right - 15 losses.  But as I remarked in my analysis, "every horse has his day," and today looked to be THE day for Drop Dead Gorgeous.  While certainly concerned about the many defeats, but I liked the fact that in her TWELFTH loss she was claimed by trainer Steve Asmussen, for himself!  You know that a top conditioner is NOT going to spend his own money on a long-time maiden like that unless they have some ability.  First off the claim 'Gorgeous moved up to $40K and was a good third.  Dropped in for $30K she was a best-of-the-rest 2nd.  Third off the claim she made her next start here at a one-turn mile and was a photo finish 2nd while four clear of everyone else.  Three sharp efforts for a top trainer, and today dropping in for $10K she looked long gone.  She drew alongside the leaders at the top of the stretch and ran away, winning by nearly a pole as the 1/2 favorite.

The second at Churchill was a 2yo maiden special sprint.  I've struggled with juvenile races to this point but in here Hulen looked best - another Asmussen trainee.  He was making his debut today, but Asmussen does good work with those.  He had an outside draw which would mean a clean trip.  He had sharp works, so I knew he'd be ready to run.  As important the others in the field either had been badly outrun in their races where they had experience or came from barns that had little success with debut runners.  Hulen was fourth turning for home, but split horses, wore down the leaders and edged clear late.  Two for two :)

Passed the next three.  In the sixth I thought it was pretty obvious that the winner would be one of the two program favorites, but which one?  Ballagh Rocks was a multiple turf winner and showed a series of races with triple digit Beyers in his pp's.  But those races had come months ago and his last FIVE were sketchy.  True, he was dropping today, but I preferred Euro import Set Piece.  Brad Cox was taking over the Euro who'd fired a bullet work for today's first North American start.  Thought maybe I had the wrong one as they spun out of the turn and Ballagh Rocks was third, making a move into the clear while Set Piece was dead last.  But Florent Geroux asked and the response was immediate.  Circled the field and caught 'Rocks at the furlong marker.  They dueled for a sixteenth of a mile and then my top choice pulled clear to win going away.

THREE for THREE!  And the final selection of the day was my "best bet."  The ninth was a maiden special event going a mile on the turf.  Two Chad Browns in the line-up and of the two I liked Greyes Creek.  He had experience - the other was a first timer - and what I thought was key was that leading rider Tyler Gaffalione probably had his choice of the two and landed on 'Creek.  In his last he was coming off a SIXTEEN month layoff and despite being forced to steady he was only beaten 3 1/2 lengths.  That his connections didn't give up on him and/or put him in for a tag off such a long layoff were positives.  He tracked the field confidently in fifth the the far turn.  Split horses to swing into the clear and blew by quickly.  Suddenly more than half a dozen clear in a sixteenth of a mile, he won geared down as TONS the best, wrapped up under the wire.

FOUR - for - FOUR, what a day.  Collected a profit of over SIXTY dollars.  What a week I'm having :)

Saturday June 13:  Ogden Phipps Day at Belmont
Today I was playing both Belmont and Santa Anita.  I handicapped the card on Thursday and knowing we'd be with the grandson (and his parents) I was cognizant that I didn't want to have a "full day" or racing.  So I only looked at the two venues and was fairly conservative in my selections.  Passed the first two in NY and in the third Primacy was going to be odds-on.  Listed at 2/5 in the program you know he would not be a "money maker."  He was being pounded early and so I re-examined the options and decided to raise the wager a click, from a double to a triple investment.  Broke slowly, but when asked to run on the far turn he swooped by and scored by daylight, in hand and under wraps.

From that race at 2:20 until the third at Santa Anita at 5 pm I had two bets.  Ran eighth at nearly 30/1 in New York and then 4th at 6/5 in the second at Santa Anita.  In the fifth out west Marenesa looked quite similar to Primacy.  Listed at 4/5 in the program she looked much the best here.  In her most recent the winner had been a dozen clear and the runner up eleven and change clear of Marenesa who was open lengths clear of the rest of the field.  She stalked a 50/1 leader to the top of the lane, then blew by as easily best.

Two for four, but losing money.  At this point as I turned to the second page of selections I'd have had a hard time believing today was going to be a big day.  Especially after running a dismal 10th in the next at Belmont at 5/2 odds.  Then I went on a tear.  At Santa Anita Worthy Turk was pounded down to 1/5 favoritism in a two-lifetime one mile turf event.  She'd been off since 2018 before her three back race where she ran sharply in a turf sprint here; then ran well in a Golden Gates sprint.  Returned to Arcadia and was a best-of-the-rest second while four clear of the show at this level and distance despite being wide.  Flavian Prat had the call.  She was third into the lane behind multiple runners.  Found a seam, hit high gear and close with a rush to be just up in time.

Next was the featured Grade 1 Ogden Phipps.  As I looked over the field, and I said this in my analysis, I thought this was a fairly mediocre edition of what's typically a strong event.  The first conclusion I came to when I looked over the field was that I did not like either of the top two favorites, at all.  Ollie's Candy - who it was difficult to bet against being with my grandson Oliver for the weekend! - was a So Cal shipper with speed.  But, she'd run in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom and had been two lengths clear in the stretch, only to be run down.  And that was going two turns, which was "her deal."  I thought (a) that had to be a taxing effort, (b) the one-turn mile and a sixteenth trip would NOT play into her wheel house, (c) there would be other speed and (d) she'd be overbet.  Toss.  The likely alternative was Point of Honor.  As a 3yo last year she'd won two stakes for me.  But when she returned in a light allowance event this winter at Tampa she was beaten.  Maybe you say she could move forward, but she'd been soundly beaten in the aforementioned Apple Blossom.  No again.  I could easily toss several others, but one that made me pause was Steve Asmussen's She's A Julie.  First, the name - my daughter's - has led to her being a favorite of mine.  Second, she is a Gr 1 winner and a talented runner.  She'd run without much interest, though to be fair she broke slowly, in a stakes at Churchill a month ago behind Chad Brown's Dunbar Road.  But, she's had her best success there in Louisville and you KNOW there are races on their schedule that would fit her.  Why is she shipping here?  And even more intriguing, why was regular rider Ricardo Santana coming along and forfeiting all his mounts at Churchill Downs?  At 8/1 in the program she was my "Upset Special."  As I watched the pre-race analysis show, NYRA analyst Andy Serling announced, with disdain that She's A Julie didn't have a chance.  I've never been a fan of his, and particularly disliked the was he treated Acacia Courtney one winter when he was wintering at Gulfstream (interestingly he wasn't invited back).  His whole "thing" is to be caustic and if you don't agree with him, you're stupid and he'll say so rudely on air.  Just made me all the more wanting She's A Julie to win.  As the field swung into the far turn a long shot with no chance led, but Ollie's Candy took over.  She's A Julie and Point of Honor began to move at the same time and I thought, "she's got a real chance here."  With a sixteenth to go Ollie's Candy was two clear but She's A Julie was surging and Point of Honor was closing......three-way photo but I was pretty certain, I WON!  And the post time odds - a HUGE 14/1!

The payoff of $31 and change led to a return of nearly $80.  WHAT A DAY....take that Mr. Serling :)  Next was another maiden event at Santa Anita going seven furlongs on the main track.  Blazing Charm had debuted last time out and hesitated at the start, spotting the field multiple lengths.  Closed with a rush to be second and two behind her have already returned to win.  Tripled the bet.  As they began to come out of the turn jockey Flavian Pratt was saving ground but behind a wall of four horses.  He waited patiently - had no way to swing wide - and a seam appeared to open, so he asked for run, but the outside horse veered in and the hole shut.  He took a hold of her as the rail horse was drifting off the barrier.  Dove inside and accelerated just as one of the late runners was surging on the outside.  Got through and JUST UP in the nick of time, my third in a row at Santa Anita!

We now come to the Belmont finale and what was my BEST of the day, Todd Pletcher's Bean Counter.  It was a starter allowance going a mile over the New York turf.  And to be sure, the fact that she'd compiled a 7/1-3-1 lifetime record was a concern.  She was exiting back-to-back near misses at this distance - another concern.  And today she was moving from a $40K starter to a $50K starter, again - cause for concern.  BUT three of her last four Beyers, which have been ascending, beat ALL 94 numbers compiled by the rest of the field.  Again, we go to the curmudgeon Mr. Serling.  In the preshow he was quoted as saying, "Bean Counter is a dunce cap horse - has no chance.  If she wins I'll take the dunce cap out of my office and put it on for tomorrow's show."  Man the guy is outspoken and has such a high opinion of his own opinions.  As they turned for home Bean Counter was sitting in fourth waiting for room to run.  A seam opened at the sixteenth pole and she shot through at just the right moment to SCORE!

My sixth win - lost the last bet at Santa Anita - but with the big day of wins I had a 60% win rate and had made over $100 for the day.  YOWZA!!!

Sunday:  June 14 - Texas Champions Day
I went back and forth about what to do today.  Because we'd be in Orlando I thought I didn't want to spend time handicapping when I could be with the family.  But I knew I'd probably have some windows of "down time" to handicap.  But looking over the entries I wasn't interested in any of the "major" tracks.  But Saturday morning I looked at Lone Star Park in Texas.  They were hosted the Texas-bred "Texas Day of Champions" Day which had previously been run at Sam Houston Park.  But this year there'd been a transformer blown that cancelled the racing that night so they'd been rescheduled for this afternoon/evening at Lone Star.  Decided to look them over and try to find some good plays.  And it was a bonus that the first post wasn't until after 4 pm so none of my picks would go off until we had made the return trip to Fort Lauderdale.  Worked out nicely that way as I passed the first two, which were both non-stakes events.  In the third She's Out Fastest looked very strong and was bet to 3/5 favoritism in the 6f Yellow Rose of Texas Stakes.  But from the get-go she was four wide and never saved an inch of ground.  An even fifth without every picking up her feet.  The fourth featured last year's winner of the Spirit of Texas trying to defend his title, albeit at a different track.  Direct Dial had won last year's event off a third place finish in an OPEN stakes.  Followed the same pattern this year, but with the delay in running trainer Steve Asmussen used a allowance at Will Rogers Downs.  Ran third also but two exited that race to come back and win.  Direct Dial circled the field, every bit as wide as the pick in the previous race but when he hit the top of the lane he accelerated off.  Cleared the field and won going away.

The fifth was a nine furlong turf event, the Richard King Turf.  Very little experience at the extended trip but last year's winner, Redatory was back.  DRF analyst Mary Rampellini noted he was, "...one of the marquee names on the card...." and he put on a show.  Pressed the 5/2 second choice to the top of the lane, moved on even terms and the two laid it down the length of the stretch before finally Redatory edged clear in the shadow of the wire to win a tight photo.

Missed in the Groovy Stakes for 3yo with what I labeled the one pick I had the least confidence in.  Gold Pilot was a closing 2nd with a big late kick at 9/5.  In the seventh, the filly companion race, the Bara Lass, Always Inthe Munny looked MUCH stronger despite relatively similar running lines.  I just thought that her last out 83 Beyer, best in the field was just a harbinger of a move forward.  Right to the front and when the pressers were asked her jockey flicked his wrists and she was gone by more than a pole.  Immensely impressive.

Closed the night with a 3rd at 2/1 to finish 3-for-6, with a second and a third, and a profit for the night.  But for the week - an amazing SEVENTEEN wins and well over $300 in profit.

Phipps Week Racing Highlights