Kentucky Derby Week

 May 2 - May 6

What an A-M-A-Z-I-N-G week.....in racing for sure, but overall when you consider the Florida Panthers stunning playoff run that continued in "unbelievable" (my new most favorite and most-used word!) fashion.  Two weeks ago today we were coming off two straight losses to the best team in the history of the regular season and found ourselves down 1-3 in the first round of the playoffs, on the brink of elimination.  Won in Boston in overtime, then a week ago Friday we had THE MOST STUNNING win at home in front of an insanely loud crowd to force a decisive Game 7.  And a week ago, on the Sunday that led into Derby Week we again found a way to win in overtime, in Boston to move into Round 2.  Didn't even return to So Fla as Game 1 of Round 2 was in Toronto who were almost as good as Boston, and ironically after they won THEIR first round series - their first win in a Stanley Cup Playoff Series in 19 years, their fans chanted "WE WANT FLORIDA!" - well you got us.  We dominated Game 1 in Toronto Tue; fell behind 2-0 in Game 2 on Thur then clawed our way back to WIN 3-2.  Came home and again fell behind 1-0, but tied it, lost the lead and then 3 min and change into overtime WON to take a stranglehold 3-0 lead in the series.  The pics below are pre-Game 3 and the moment following the stunning overtime winner, followed by my self-pic this Monday morning!  Oh it's great to be a Florida Panther fan!

On a side note....this morning after posting this photo of me enjoying my coffee, I thought of my gal-pal, CBS-4 Evening Anchor Lauren Pastrana.  We'd had a "conversation" once via Twitter about how much we both enjoy coffee, hot coffee regardless of the outside temperature - AND from Wawa once.  So I thought of her and "tweeted" this out to her.  Shortly afterwards she replied back showing her support of both our 'Cats and of course coffee :)

And all of this doesn't event take into account what a great week it was in my racing world!  With the hockey games on the road until the weekend I really had little on my agenda for the week so I decided I'd play the races at Churchill all week thinking that maybe I'd have a better "feel" for the way the track was playing going into the big weekend.  So here's how my racing week unfolded......

May 2

In looking at today's races on "502'sDay" as it was called at the Downs, I found six of the nine races "worthy" of betting.  Ran a good 4th at a big 8/1 with the first bet and then a disappointing fifth at 8/5 with the next.  The fifth was the first turf event of the day and it was a 2-lifetime allowance.  Fuente Ovajuna looked oh-so-obvious to me, yet the three public handicappers virtually ignored her chances.  Trained by sharp trainer Brendon Walsh, ridden by 6x leading rider Tyler Gaffalione, going third off the shelf and has three straight top figures that all put her as fastest in the field.  Was in the back half of the field through the turn as the 9/5 second choice, swept to engage the leaders in mid-stretch and kicked clear to score with my double investment on board.

Passed on the sixth, then in Race 7, a MSW sprint for older it looked like a wild scramble of "go figure" picks.  But when I looked at the selection page I saw an angle that I picked up many years at a Las Vegas Handicapping seminar.  There, in a workshop for longshot angles, the "Lone Pick" angle had been explained.  In it you look at the public handicappers selection of three horses....if ONE handicapper puts a horse on top and the others do not list the horse at all, that's the pick.  I've used this before - doesn't happen often - and often get a good price.  Well, as you see in the photo below, Sweet Azteca was the pick on this angle.  Right to the front, set sizzling fractions while under pressure (:20.4, 44.1) - so fast that I thought she'd never last, but drew off through the lane, AND at a near 5/1 price enabling me to cash for nearly $30!

Missed in a turf event in the eighth before arriving at the finale, a MSW going the Derby distance of a mile and a quarter.  With a field full of maidens, none of whom who'd gone the classic distance and few if any who'd raced here in Louisville, it was really a reach to find a legitimate bet.  But I liked Todd Pletcher's Prove Worthy enough for the wager.  He was stretching out for his third start today - typically a top performance - after going a mile-40 yards twice at Tampa.  But what was significant was that when running second in his most recent, the winner had come back to win Laurel's Fedirico Tesio Stakes which is the local Maryland prep for the Grade 1 Preakness.  Good enough for me.  Was near the back approaching the turn while saving ground.  Slide off the rail and split rivals to swing four-wide into the lane.  Got to the front nearing the furlong pole then drew off as much the best.  Again I got a nice price, more than $9 and collected over $20 to make 502'sday a winning day!

May 3

The Wednesday card had the first two stakes races of the week, and while I did not hit either of them it was another good day at the track.  The opener was yet another mile-and-a-quarter dirt test, and as I remarked in my analysis, this was the third day of racing under the Twin Spires (Opening Night last Saturday being the first) and all three cards had a classic distance race....unusual.  In this short field I liked Allege.  I, again, was amazed that my choice was NOT the public pick.  "They" all liked a runner who had seven wins - but from twice as many starts.  The "other" horse had won for the first time since August to now have two wins in his last ten while Allege was on a four-race win streak and had won five of his last nine.  While jockey Julian Leparoux is a good rider - on the favorite - he was 7-for-126 in all of 2023.  My rider, 6x top rider here of late Tyler Gaffalione was sporting 85 wins from 485 mounts - that's 16% compared to Leparoux's 6% - that clearly gives him the edge.  What was I missing?  Nothing as it turns out as Allege was up in time while the popular choice was a distant third.  Collected over $35 for my "expert analysis!"  

Missed in the 2nd, 4th, and 6th, running second in the first two events before getting back on the board in Race 7.  Again, I was bewildered at the public choices and how the crowd was betting.  Particularly so because so many times what I see is what most everyone else sees.  But again I was in the distinct minority as I broke down this entry level allowance going the unusual 7 1/2 furlong distance.  To me it was not "rocket science" and just seemed so obvious.  Six of the seven rivals lined up inside of my pick, Grey's The Boy, ALL liked to me on or pressing the lead.  Especially at this extended one-turn trip that just seemed like a neon sign saying "PICK THE HORSE WHO FINISHES BEST" - and that was 'Grey who had, again, leading rider Tyler Gaffalione, who in this case was a 30% winner for this barn.  Sat seventh of the eight into the far turn while a trio of runners knocked heads.  Moved five wide through the turn picking off horses, angled seven wide into the lane and ran by them all to draw off by more than two open lengths.  Stunned to see the payoff listed at more than $12 so I cashed for over $60 to assure yet another winning day.

And to add to the winnings, TwinSpires had offered a "Bet Back" promotion for the entire week if your horse ran 2nd or 3rd, you'd get back up to $10 in wagering money back.  Well those two 2nd place finishes earlier and in the finale - when I was a good third at a HUGE 19/1 price, that would have been nice - added another $25 to the bankroll!  WHOOOO HOOOOO, thank you TwinSpires!

May 3

Thursday of Derby week is traditionally the "day for the locals."  With all the huge stakes races with nationally known runners on Friday, Kentucky Oaks day and Saturday, Kentucky Derby day residents of "The Ville" like the "smaller crowd" - though hardly "small" by comparison to what other race tracks lure on a Thursday - of what is affectionately known as "Thurby" (get it - Thursday+Derby LOL).  Every so often I have one of "those days" where it's one for the books.....just seem to hit winners right and left and at the end of the day you look back and just say WOW, that was fun.  At the end of the racing week I posted on Facebook that it's a "thing" about handicapping.  Difficult to beat the individual race.....difficult to win on any given day.....but if you're "good" at it and play consistently, then I've found over the long run you'll do quite well.  Just have to stick with it and play consistently.  This is unfortunate for anyone who "follows" me but plays on just random days.  And I found this to be true way back when if I used someone else's selections.  They may win at a big percentage (like me) but on THIS day are they going to win?  And unfortunately so many people who follow me on social media checked in on Derby Day instead of today.  Just have to hope that MAYBE some of them checked in on Florida Derby Day when I had a big day, like today.  So, after passing the first I liked Academic Honor in the second, another elongated 7 1/2 furlong dirt test under entry level allowance conditions.  'Honor was the very definition of an entry level win candidate - won early, and ran well against winners as a lightly raced thoroughbred.  It was appealing that she'd won with a solid Beyer two back, but in Feb 2022 and then when last seen about a month ago she ran FASTER than that maiden score at this same allowance level when third.  Not one but two sizzling works topped the choice.  Tracked the leading trio to the top of the lane, inched to the front under confident handling and proved best with my triple investment on board.  Cashed for over $30 on the first win of the day.

Right back in the third, a starter allowance sprint where Caramel Chip looked tempting to me.  He'd lost two in a row to the second choice before beating him last time out.  But today I thought he looked much better because that rival would have company on the front end.  When that rival scratched out the result seemed inevitable.  Pressed the pace to through the turn then set sail for the wire and an emphatic score for my second win of the day.

Race 4 was the first of the stakes events today, the Kentucky Juvenile for 2-year-olds.  I'd seen the filly Youalmosthadme win her debut at Keeneland.  She'd been a low-priced second choice behind a highly regarded Wesley Ward firster and I'd thought at the time that any horse taking that kind of money with a Ward 2yo at Keeneland had to have some talent.  But she ran off the screen as MUCH the best.  Today she was facing another Ward runner but the field looked pretty light, even for a spring 2yo stakes.  When the Ward runner scratched she looked MUCH the best - even as a filly against the boys.  There seemed to be few scenarios that wouldn't see her win, but it IS horse racing.  Right to the front, skipped clear by almost half a dozen turning for home and coasted home by almost nine widening lengths.  Very impressive!  And I'd upped the bet on my third winner as she was pounded at the windows.

The fifth was a MSW going two turns over the inner grass course.  It looked wide open, but I was willing to trust Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher's judgement on his 3yo Hard Spun colt, Hidden Path, who'd been a sharp 2nd on debut, but over the Gulfstream synthetic surface....there's "that track" again, STILL throwing a monkey wrench into handicapping races long after the Winter Meet is over! 'Path stalked the pace, moved to a clear lead turning for home and held off all challengers for my FOURTH WIN of the day.  I've now won four straight and am having a VERY good day :)

The sixth was one of the most (of many) exciting races of the week.  This was a seven furlong sprint under nw3x allowance conditions.  Now this class of race is not commonly carded because most runners go either into stakes after a second level allowance, or high priced claiming events.  So when you DO get these kinds of races the most likely winner is a runner who's run well in stakes company.  And that made Run Classic very interesting to me.  First, I thought maybe he'd be a somewhat "fair" price coming off a fading third in Keeneland's Grade 3 Commonwealth at this trip.  But for me, looking down his pp's you'd note he'd been effective sprinting - not routing as he'd done prior to the Commonwealth - when stalking the leaders.  But in that Keeneland Gr 3 he'd dueled on the front.  I thought today he'd revert to those tactics.  I made the bet a triple investment because I really didn't think the main rival, Strava would win.  The horse, yes - he stood every chance and was 3/2-0-1 at Churchill.  But his trainer, Dallas Stewart was just 7-for-67 in all of 2023 and with horses coming off the bench like this one he was a paltry 2-for-his-last 41.  The race played out ALMOST like I thought.  Run Classic stalked Strava, was coming to him as they swung for home but then 'Run drifted wide off the turn while Strava hugged the rail and cut the corner to be back in front.  Run Classic would narrow the gap then wandered inside, back outside and with a sixteenth to go I was resigned to the fact I was not scoring.  But suddenly he found himself, surged.....PHOTO FINISH.  Oh it was so close.  At first glance I felt pretty sure I lost, but then the slow-mo replay, wait a minute I might have had the right bob at the right time....just where EXACTLY is the wire?  The camera kept focusing on Strava - not a good sign for me - until the tote board flashed....DEAD HEAT and while I didn't get a full payoff I DID cash my ticket on my FIFTH WIN in a row.  WOW.

Finally missed in the 8th when running fourth at 2/1.  The last two races on the card were both stakes events.  The first was the St. Matthews Stakes and again, as had happened several times this week, I just shook my head at what "everyone else" was seeing.  I was hoping that bettors would scan his pp's and be dissuaded by the fact he'd finished THREE TIMES behind one of today's rivals and once behind another of the runners in today's field.  But for ME I was noting that these losses had come out of town and that he was only 2-for-13 over other tracks but CLEARLY did his best running here, scoring in a whopping NINE of sixteen.  And in the pre-race analysis on air, it was noted that with a win he'd tie for the most wins by any single horse over the track....ever.

Now also note that Tyler G was on board.  Duh....hello.  The crowd saw the race as a toss-up, wow, and allowed him to go off at better than 2/1 odds.  Pressed the pace through the opening quarter and then drew off as much, MUCH the best providing me with my SIXTH WIN on today's card.  WOW I am having a REALLY good day, and my Best Bet is yet to come!

Yes, it was in the featured Opening Verse Stakes that my Best Bet of the Day was running.  Todd Pletcher's talented turf runner Annapolis was a multiple graded stakes winner, and as a 3yo in his first start against older last fall in Keeneland's Grade 1 Turf Mile, he'd beaten older.  Toss the last, the Breeders' Cup Mile where he lost all chance at the start.  Now, ok, coming off a layoff, and OK obviously with bigger targets ahead.  But (a) facing listed foes for the first time since a decisive score in career start number four and (b) Pletcher never "runs them into shape" - if a Pletcher runner is in the gate, he's ready to run and you can count on them being spotted where they can win.  Was a little farther back than I would have liked, and through an awfully slow pace - I was thinking he'd better be every bit as good as I think he is - before launching his rally.  He came running late and while the margin was narrow you could tell that jockey Irad Ortiz did not ask him for his best and he DID have his rivals measured as he won for my astounding SEVENTH WIN on the day.  Just a W-O-W kind of day.

Derby Week Racing Highlights - Part 1

May 5

Kentucky Oaks - "Pink Out" Day - is a day I have often enjoyed success on.  I debated about going out to Gulfstream as I'd done several times in the past.  But I just couldn't get past the fact that I'd be driving 40 plus minutes to watch on small TV screens, from a distance without hearing the commentary or the race call....and then have to drive 40 minutes back home through traffic..... OR ..... I could watch in the comforts of the "Sunrise Simulcast Center" on a 55" wide-screen TV, get up close if I wanted AND hear the entire broadcast AND race call.  So that was my choice, but as you see above I still dressed up in my "Oaks finest!"  Well, obviously I didn't get to "cash in" on any of the "Bet Back" promotions on Thurby since I was W-I-N-N-I-N-G all those races :)  But I benefitted again today and on Saturday.  I have to admit that today was not at all like I thought it would be.  At first, I wondered, "will I ever lose another race?" as I rattled off not one, not two, but three consecutive winners to start the day off.  In the opener I didn't bet but my top horse scratched and my second choice wired the field - wishing now I'd bet at least a little.  In the second I DID bet and it looked to me like a two-horse race between Vahva, who'd won on debut here and finished second in the Fair Grounds' Untappable Stakes in December behind what turned out to be today's Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks winner.  The rival that looked almost as good was Undervalued Asset who'd run in a GP stakes but that race had been "weirdly run" with a longshot winner prevailing.  The two dueled through the stretch with Vahva just edging clear in the shadow of the wire.

The third was a one-mile turf race under 2nd level allowance conditions.  I thought "cases" could be made for almost half a dozen but for me Smokin' T was the clear bet.  Jockey John Velazquez had won four on the Tuesday card so he was in top form.  'T had "paired" Beyer figures for trainer Shug McGaughey and I really liked he'd run strongly in both the Grade 2 American HERE last spring and the Audubon Stakes, also here - both under Velazquez.  AND he had a bullet work.  Saved ground through the far turn, shifted into the clear an drove home by daylight.  Much like Vahva in the first bet of the day, Smokin' T paid over $6 and I cashed here for over $30.

Next up it was another second level allowance, this one going a one-turn mile on the main track.   I felt pretty comfortable about Heartyconstitution because I did NOT care for most of the others.  Two sprint starts to begin her career then tried the Gr 3 Fantasy in her first try against winners.  Outrun she came here and was a best-of-the-rest 2nd leading to a try in the Tepin Stakes here at this same mile trip.  Again second, but the winner went on to win multiple graded events, so I thought 'Hearty was the class of the field.  Well, WELL back early she began making up ground while weaving between runners on the turn.  Angled out into the clear once heads turned for home and accelerated past the others to score comfortably with my triple investment wager on her.

Am I going to have another one of "those days?"  As much as I thought maybe, the big stakes races which usually provide me with multiple winners saw me lose six of the seven.  In the Grade 2 Alysheba West Will Power was everyone's pick at 3/5 but after being loose on the lead faded to third.  I really liked Chad Brown's Shantisara in the Grade 3 Modesty, and bet her "big," but she was a disappointing fourth at 2/1 odds.  The Grade 3 Eight Belles at seven furlongs for 3yo was one of the most intriguing races as Todd Pletcher sent out undefeated, but untested Munnys Gold into open and graded company for the first time.  Except for that "knock" she looked LONG gone on the front end.  But instead of being loose she was pressed, the collared and then it looked like she was done.  But she rallied back bravely while in tight on the rail - two things she'd never had to do before - and was a JUST miss 2nd.  In the eighth it was the ungraded, Unbridled Sydney going 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf.  In retrospect I should have gone in deeper here, and honestly I think I just missed one small, but important detail.  Caravel looked much the best of these fillies and mares and was exiting back-to-back wins in graded turf sprints - one being the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint.  Looked to be loose on the lead or with the wide draw she could press the leaders.  What I failed to note was that the BC Turf Sprint and the Grade 2 Shakertown that she won last time out off the bench were BOTH AGAINST THE BOYS.  And now she was facing fillies & mares.  Right to the front, never asked, never threatened.  At least I'd gone in for a triple investment as I picked up my fourth winner on the day and I thought, "I'll finish the day strong now."

In the Grade 1 La Trioenne I didn't have a strong opinion and was fourth.  In the Grade 2 Edgewood I thought I had a viable longshot in last out maiden debut winner Preliminary for Todd Pletcher.  But the crowd made her the favorite.  Boosted my confidence but she faded through the lane instead of kicking for home.  In the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks I was strongly in favor of Brad Cox's Wet Paint in spite of the fact that she rallied from far back.  For some reason today she sat only four or five lengths off the leaders and I thought (as well as the TV analysts) that this hurt her late punch - 4th at 8/5.  And topped the day off by running 6th as the 2/1 favorite in a 3yo allowance.  Fast start, only one stakes win but at least I had a "Bet Back" on Munnys Gold to help the bankroll.  Tomorrow, Derby Day will certainly be better I thought.

May 6

Derby Day and typically Kim and I go out to Gulfstream, have lunch...bet a couple races and I make my bets for the big races later in the day.  But with her Mom still visiting, neither of the girls were interested in leaving home.  So I donned my "Derby outfit" and again played at the Sunrise Simulcast Center.  I got a very pleasant and unexpected surprise in the morning when gal-pal Jen Cook, who Kim and I were good friends with at Cypress Bay messaged me and wanted to play along today.  She and I have "agreed" that once she retires she'll become my "track assistant," which she seems to be seriously interested in.  And so she sent me money and I made the same bets for her that I made for myself.  The first on Derby Day was a six furlong entry level allowance sprint for 3yo and I narrowed it to two colts.  I had even money favorite who chased the other one, at 8/5 all the way around and finished 2nd.  The second saw me run 2nd again, this time in a two-turn MSW on the main track.  In the third I didn't like anyone.  The fourth I was 99.9% certain that Chad Brown's 2-Goodnight Olive - who won the BC F&M Sprint and last time out won the Grade 1 Madison at Keeneland - would win.  I noted, ironically that with her inside draw the ONLY foreseeable problem would be if the other riders simply pinned her in to prevent her from winning.  Exactly what happened as from the top of the far turn all the way to the wire she never, ever had a chance to run.  I'd argue the winner ran a fair race while the runner-up simply wanted to pin 'Olive in and win if she could.  It was good race-riding but frustrating.  The fifth was the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile and my pick Spendarella loomed boldly into the lane but could not get by, second again.  Four straight where I didn't hit the board, the "best" of which was in the Grade 2 American on the turf for 3yo I really liked Carl Spackler off a sparkling maiden win at GP.  Looked every bit the winner spinning off the turn, then hit a wall and faded badly.  The one bright spot in this long stretch of races came from a maiden event at Horseshoe Indiana - why am I playing her?  Because one of the horses I am part owner in through MyRacehorse, Classic Cut was running.  He'd drawn the rail in a one mile affair, and it wasn't until they approached the gate that I realized trainer Brad Cox had entered him on the turf.  Right to the front, clear into the lane....I'm a winner....wait, here comes a closer, flying....where's the wire.....PHOTO FINISH!

WHEW that was oh-so-close!  At this point, with 'Cut being the only winner so far I felt so bad for Jen.  But got some relief in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs when the ultra talented Cody's Wish, winner of the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile looked to outclass this field.  My concern was he comes from way off the pace, and coming off the layoff would he fire.  Sure enough, well....WELL back into the turn and just as I was about to become concerned he effortlessly began picking off horses.  Leveled off at the top of the lane and ran away as easily best.  FINALLY a winner, and with a big bet.

In the Grade 1 Turf Classic I took last year's winner Santin who prompted the pace at 7/2 through the turn and looked ready to take off.  Didn't fire and backed up, off the board.  At around 9 am this morning the morning line favorite for the Kentucky Derby, unbeaten 2yo champion Forte was scratched due to Churchill Downs being ultra nervous about a minor bruise because multiple horses had died this week and like this would make things better?  I told Kim that I thought any one of the 18 could win and I wouldn't be surprised.  Then as they loaded I said I would be surprised if Mage won.....he went from a 6 furlong maiden win at Gulfstream to the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth and ran 4th.  Came right back in his 3rd career start and was a just-miss 2nd to Forte in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.  I really thought he was (a) overrated and (b) would bounce off that big effort.  And he had Hall of Fame jockey Javier Castellano who had the most mounts by a jockey in Derby history without a win!  Yes, of course he won at 15/1 odds.  I had two late races - ran 2nd in the first one and finally in the fourteenth race, the finale - which didn't go off until after 9 pm due to weather delay, Everso Mischievous altered course when blocked in the lane, dove to the rail and surged to win for only my third winner on the day.

Fortunately for me, and for my "partner" Jen four of the losses qualified for money back.  So even though we only actually "won" twice, we cashed six times - seven for me because of Classic Cut.  So Jen "cashed" on almost half the races and got back almost 2/3 of her money.  

Derby Week Racing Highlights - Part 2

So enjoyed sharing the day with gal-pal from Cypress Bay Jen Cook who has agreed to be my "track assistant" upon her retirement!  Felt bad that of the five days I played the races, with all the overall success I had that the one day Jen played along was the slowest day for winners....but she did "cash" on 6-of-14 and she seemed happy with the results.

I'm excited that next week the "real summer season" kicks off as Monmouth Park begins live racing.  I enjoy handicapping every Monmouth live card because (a) it gives me a weekly interest in racing, but (b) unlike Gulfstream they only run on the weekends.  The first two weeks just Saturday and Sunday, then at the end of the month they begin their regular Friday-thru-Sunday schedule.  So not too much effort involved, but enough to keep me interested until Saratoga & Del Mar open and then the Fall Championship Season begins.

Social Media this week.....I don't mention it often, but it bears repeating on occasion, since retiring I have very little "in person" interaction with "real people" other than family.  And so my "human contact" is largely through social media.  It's one of the many reasons I love to travel so much - I get to have contact with people :)  And as the photos almost always show, like when I was in the "real world," for some reason nearly all of my friends seemed to be females.  

The week started off with Oasis gal-pal "Coach Kelly" enjoying her birthday.  Such a cutie and she worked so hard for us.

Twice interacted with CBS-4 evening news anchor Lauren Pastrana in regards to our Panthers :)

While watching the races on "America's Day At The Races," handicapper Maggie Wolfendale looked so adorable in her cute hat that I had to compliment her and ask her opinion on my "BET of the Day" on the Thurby card.

Two more interactions with local news anchors - first, again with Lauren, and then with fashion "icon" Jacey Birch who looked the picture in pink for Kentucky Oaks Day.

I had another "America's Day At The Races" interaction with Acacia Courtney, wishing her a "Happy Oaks Day."  She later picked the upset winner of the race - I didn't follow her advice :(

I felt so "rewarded" I guess is the word when I exchanged comments with weather girl Jennifer Correa, not so much for the "chat" but that she began following me on Twitter :)

I always try to keep in touch with gal-pal Kimmy

As I mentioned above, Kim and I had been great friends with Jennifer Cook and she surprised me by reaching out to ask if she could "play along" on Derby Day.

Another gal-pal from school for Kim and I, Mishelle has turned her life around since getting divorced and seems so happy with her new man.  She posted pics from her high school prom which she chaperoned.

And finally, I had interaction with my favorite gal-pal anchor, Karli Barnett as well.

Opening Night at Churchill Downs

 April 28 - 29

Closing Day at Keeneland / Opening Night at Churchill

The Kentucky Derby is fast approaching and this Friday was closing day at the Spring Meet at Keeneland.  When I saw that Bill Mott's War Like Goddess was entered in the Friday feature I knew I had to play this final day of racing in Lexington.  For the day, I had six selections with two "big ones," including the featured event.  I won both of those and finished ahead for the day, which got me off to a good start to the weekend.  In Keeneland's fifth, a nine furlong dirt allowance the likely winner was the very talented We The People who was a graded stakes winner in 2022 and making his return to the races for 2023.  Even though trainer Todd Pletcher obviously has bigger targets ahead, layoff runners for this Hall of Fame barn nearly always fire and 'People was no exception.  Right to the front, toyed with the field and won for fun.

The closing day featured stakes was the Grade 3 Bewitch Stakes going a mile and a half on the turf.  War Like Goddess was trying to do something no horse had done in nearly 30 years.....repeating in a stakes race for the third time at Keeneland.  She'd won this race in 2021 and 2022 and I thought she looked as good or better today.  Of the combined 88 lifetime races run by the rivals trying to beat her today, NONE of those races had earned a triple digit Beyer.  'Goddess had earned four, including in her last two starts.  At this mile and a half trip, War Like Goddess had compiled a 6/5-0-1 resume with the lone blemish coming against the best turf males in the world last fall in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf.  She had proven to be adaptable to any pace scenario and had won multiple times off the bench.  With a small field and only one real front runner jockey Joel Rosario kept her within striking range to the far turn.  Swept up and by to the front.  The front runner had gone at a moderate pace and was able to hold on to be second and had fought courageously enough to make the stretch run "interesting," but never in doubt.  That the crowd let her go off at 1-2 odds in a short field was giving money away I thought as I cashed on the BET of the Weekend for $75.

The day got even better when that evening Kim, Jeff and I all headed to the arena to see our Panthers try to keep their playoff hopes alive against the mighty, #1 seeded Boston Bruins.  On Wednesday night, in Boston down 3 games to 1 we'd battled them to a regulation standoff and then won in overtime.  Tonight we carried a 3-2 lead into the third but gave up two goals....tied it...gave up a short handed goal, but got it right back on the same power play 30 seconds later....then got the game winner with four minutes to go.  Our goalie made an OMG heroic save with less than 30 seconds left and one of our best players cleared the puck to the boards where it ricocheted down the ice and into the empty net for an astounding 7-5 win in front of the very loudest and electric crowd we've ever seen there.  What a way to top off the day!

Before the big game

Celebrating the huge win!

Saturday:  Opening Night at Churchill Downs
Last weekend the multi-stakes Laurel card had been cancelled but the races were re-drawn with mostly the same fields, so I re-handicapped that card to play today.  I also handicapped Oaklawn, Aqueduct, and then because first post in Louisville was at 6pm I played the later cards out west.  It was "Gold Rush" weekend at Golden Gate Fields in San Francisco and there were two stakes races at Santa Anita.  I'd finished the hours of handicapping and had more than 30 selections on my sheet for Saturday when I saw online Friday that Laurel had announced they were off the turf, so that reduced my number of plays and changed a few picks.  The first race I had an investment on was at 1 pm and I started the day off with a third, a fifth and back-to-back 2nd place finishes.  Having this similar start last Saturday provided me with even more confidence that I was nearly certain I would "get my share" of winners by the end of the day.  Sure enough, I began the big winning day with one of the two best bets of the racing on this Saturday.  The 4th at Laurel was the nine furlong Native Dancer Stakes and by nearly any angle you approached the race, other than price, Nimitz Class was a standout.  He was facing five rivals today, and he'd recently beat four of them.  In addition, of the sixty running lines showing on the page for these rivals, one and one only would be good enough to beat the WORST of his last three figures.  He also had shown he could be on the lead, pressing the lead or stalking so the pace flow was of no concern.  I will admit that I was just a smidge concerned when the rider elected to dual with a longshot through the clubhouse turn, down the backstretch and into the far turn.  But he eased to the front without really being asked and he was comfortably in front despite the deep closers making up some ground belatedly.

The fifth at Laurel was the Henry Clark, originally scheduled for the grass.  Now instead of a two turn turf race, it was a one-turn dirt race.  I narrowed the runners to two that I thought had a good chance and I preferred Classier.  But I was only going to play if the wagering supported my pick.  When the wagering opened the two I'd been considering were the top two choices in the early WIN wagering, but my top choice was the second choice.  That surprised me honestly so I checked the multi-race payoffs and found that I seemed destined to be the favorite.  Sure enough by post time Classier was odds-on and the other horse was a big price.  He allowed a longshot to take control early but shortly after they'd gone the opening quarter of a mile he'd had enough of that one.  Easily went by, opened up and was the easiest kind of winner.  WHOOO HOOO - two stakes wins.

I missed at Oaklawn before getting what turned out to be the lone win in New York.  I'd originally had five picks from Aqueduct but they were off the turf and my best of the day there scratched out due to the off-going.  That left me with only three bets.  I tripled the bet on Angelique in this, the fourth race on the card.  This was a MSW sprint and it was appealing that Todd Pletcher's debut runner was listed as the morning line chalk.  Three of her last four works at Pletcher's So Fla Palm Beach Downs base had been bullet moves and the DRF's Mike Beer, who next to never picks the favorite, tabbed her his top choice.  She tracked the leader into the lane, looked ready to roll by for the win and took over.  But in the final 200 yards she was all out to hang on.  At first glance both live and in slow-motion I thought I'd lost the head bob.  But the up-close, on-the-wire view showed that inches before and inches after I was not the winner, but at the exact moment that the line came up, I was the narrowest of winners.  WHEW that was close, but I will gladly cash my ticket for nearly $25.

My pick at Oaklawn stopped like she was shot on the turn so I quickly turned to the seventh at Laurel which was not a stakes event.  This was an entry level allowance for 3yo going seven furlongs and the question was, how good was Brittany Russell's Goodgirl Badhabits?  She'd debuted as no secret when blowing the doors off the competition at even money in her debut.  But that was at five and a half furlongs.  Her Beyer was faster than anything on the page and she was taking a lot of money.  She was taking so much money that I upped the bet from the original double investment to a "prime time" play.  Right to the front and she was clear by two or more within the first five jumps.  The margin widened the farther they went as she put on a dazzling display of speed.  Stakes action is almost certainly next in her future.

When I noted that it was "Gold Rush" weekend at Golden Gate Fields in San Francisco I was anxious to play here.  To the best of my knowledge I'd only played her once last year, and it was on this card and I had done relatively well.  So up next was a starter allowance from here going six furlongs.  The lightly raced and unbeaten filly She's Resilient was hard to look past in this $50K starter.  She'd won at first asking over the Tapeta track here then shipped to the "big track," at Santa Anita and won again.  Her two Beyers were the best on the page and So Cal top rider Umberto Rispoli had the call.  She burst out of the gate and was quickly clear by daylight.  The late runners made a move into the lane and Rispoli asked her for another gear and she immediately re-broke and drew off impressively.  

Less than ten minutes later the 3yo fillies were walking into the gate at Santa Anita for the nine furlong, Grade 3 Providencia Stakes.  It quickly was apparent to my thinking that the race boiled down to the top two favorites.  I went with Paris Secret despite the fact that the logical, short-priced favorite Ancient Peace looked to be loose on the lead.  But for my money - and I only went in for the minimum - I thought that since both had never been beyond a mile that the former would have a much better chance to get the additional full furlong.  The first thing that helped my cause was that 'Peace was NOT loose on an easy lead.  But as they hit the far turn it was clear to me that regardless of the pace, 'Paris was loving the additional ground.  She swept up, blew by and was long gone at a nice 3/1 price.  I was wishing I'd bet more, but still, I was content to collect over $20 on the minimum bet.

The race had hardly been official and prices posted before they were headed into the gate at Oaklawn for the eighth, and allowance sprint.  On the entire Arkansas card I'd only found four races of interest to me.  And as it turned out, though this was the only winner of the four, I profited on the day here!  Even though it was an entry level allowance, the conditions read, ".....for 3yo and up who've never won $23K other than maiden, claiming or starter...."  Well, I've learned over the years that when Chicago-based trainer Larry Rivelli ships somewhere - even to high class Saratoga - you need to look carefully.  Here his entry, Tape to Tape had ALREADY won an allowance event, but at Hawthorne the purse structure was such that it did NOT meet the conditions of this race, so he was still eligible.  Add in that the top rider of the meet took the call and I liked his chances.  Right to the front and never looked back.  But the best news, he left the gate at 7/2 odds.  I was particularly gratified because on the "America's Day at the Races" analysts all agreed that the 4/5 favorite in here was a "confident single" in the multi-race wagers.  When they said that I was like, "Ummm, think you're wrong here!"  For my convictions, with a double investment, I cashed for almost $50!  WHOOOOO HOOOOO - go me, go me.

It was now about 5:20 pm and we were less than 45 minutes from the opener in Louisville.  And I'd just gone on a 7-for-9 streak over the nearly three and a half hours of watching races.  So I was "ok" to watch as the next FIVE runners failed to score.  And of those, only one hit the board - YIKES.  The sixth at Golden Gate was the race that got me back to the winner's circle - the California Oaks for 3yo fillies going a mile and a synthetic over the synthetic main track.  It looked to me like a "pace makes the race" kind of affair, much like the earlier Santa Anita stakes, but I thought there was a good chance that the class of So Cal shipper Lily Poo would tell.  She tracked the loose-on-the-lead front runner to the top of the lane, moved willingly to engage her then edged clear through the stretch to provide me with my EIGHTH win of the day and first stakes at Golden Gate.

I'd passed the Churchill opener as the sun was setting and ran 6th as the 8/5 favorite in Race 2.  In the third race it had next to nothing to do with the horse and everything to do with the connections.  Over the last several Churchill meets, jockey Tyler Gaffalione had been the leading rider.  And trainer Dale Romans is "known" - by those who follow such things closely - for NOT winning during the winter in So Fla, but when back home in his native Louisville, he's much more effective.  And so these two paired up on Secret Pocket in a cheap $10K maiden event.  It helped my confidence level that the likely favorite and DRF Best had (a) never been on dirt, (b) went from MSW to $30K MC to $15K MC and never showed improvement, and (c) had been claimed from a 26% winning barn to run tonight for a barn that was ONE-for-seventeen on the year.  Ouch.  Stalked the pace from fourth on the turn while in the clear, was passed on the outside nearing the top of the lane, but split rivals and accelerated to the front in the final 16th to give me my first winner under the Twin Spires.

Missed at Santa Anita when fifth as the prohibitive 1-2 choice, wow, before it was time for the Camilla Urso Stakes at Golden Gate Fields - a five furlong turf dash.  The on-air analysts agreed that Alice Marble was the "best horse" in the field, but the question was, could she be close enough without falling too far out of it to be able to show her late run in time.  I thought so and made her my Golden Gate BEST Bet of the evening.  While often "pace makes the race" is the key, in my mind the fact that she'd run seven races - from eight starts - since January 2022 - that would take a lifetime best number from any of her rivals to beat her.  AND she had a best of 75 bullet work for today.  I was concerned that jockey Umberto Rispoli sat next to last turning for home, but got in the clear and just exploded to fly home  and be up JUST IN TIME.  She'd been 4/5 entering the gate but late money went elsewhere allowing her price to float up to 6/5 which meant I cashed for an additional ten bucks.  WHOOO HOOO.

We were no sooner official and prices posted in San Francisco than the field was going into the gate for Race 4 at Churchill Downs.  This was a non-winners of two lifetime claiming event going a mile and a sixteenth on the main track.  The first thing that jumped off the page was that the seven entered for the mere $10K had lost 120 plus times to go with their seven maiden wins.  And nearly all of them had lost for a cheap tag like this.  But Nordic Light had "only" been out ten times and had shown some run against $15K Turfway rivals first time winners, then had been a "within range" fourth for $20K at Keeneland last time out.  On the drop with the best figures he was worth a bet.  Tracked in fourth through the turn, moved to third turning for home behind the dueling front runners.  Let loose in the final furlong he made the lead with 100 yards to go to edge under the wire the winner at a nice 2/1 price for my second Churchill winner.

Made a bold move in the Lost In The Fog Stakes at Golden Gates before my horse went down and was 2nd at 8/5 in the next at Churchill before finding the winner's circle again.  It was the featured Grade 2 Santa Maria from Santa Anita going a mile and a sixteenth and CLEARLY it boiled down to either Bob Baffert's Adare Manor or her nemesis Big Switch as they'd been a head-bobbing 1-2 last time out.  But for me, even though they both looked like they wanted the front, I thought Adare Manor was simply better.  Broke sharply, got to the front without issue and ran around the track to score with authority.

After running 7th in a GG grass stakes it was time to test the new turf course in Louisville.  Last spring and fall the course had been closed for all kinds of reasons when it just wasn't right.  But it looked lush tonight as they headed to the gate for a 2-lifetime allowance going a mile and a sixteenth.  Despite the fact it was a restricted event, I thought Chasing The Crown was worthy of a near Best Bet of the Night endorsement.  He'd won over THIS turf course last May then wasn't seen until January at GP where he matched that Beyer when a good third off the bench vs. first time winners - in a race where the winner came right back to score.  In his second start he was an even better 2nd, again behind a repeat winner who then ran third in the Grade 1 Makers Mark Mile at Keeneland.  The new lifetime best figure and going third off the shelf for trainer Mike Maker and jockey Luis Saez sealed the deal for me.  Put down the "big bet" and then sweated it out as he was trapped near the back, behind horses AND between rivals to the far turn.  Split rivals to burst into the clear and then it was all over as he swept by as much, MUCH the best.  It wasn't so much about the payoff at short odds as I'd been spot on in my analysis that he was indeed worthy of the play.

Missed in the California Derby at GG before they went into the gate for the 7th at Churchill.  It was a MSW event going the Derby distance of the classic mile and a quarter trip.  NO ONE had ever been that far so you had to think creatively! I thought it was a fair play to take Klaravich Stables and Chad Brown trained Peak Popularity based on the connections and the bloodlines.  He was a son of Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf winner and UAE Derby winner Mendelssohn - who'd been my bet in the Kentucky Derby that year....paired figures and run well in both of his career starts.  He was fifth on the turn while a bit wide, fourth into the lane.  Just kept grinding away making up ground and was J-U-S-T up in time for my fourth win under the lights in Louisville.

Missed at Santa Anita before it was time for the big race at Golden Gate Fields, the Grade 3 San Francisco Mile on the turf.  To me I thought So Cal shipper Balnikhov was a likely winner.  As I noted, he was "far from a mortal lock and likely to be a shorter price than his chances warranted," but I bet the horse most likely to win in my opinion and with jockey Umberto Rispoli enjoying a banner day I was even more inclined to bet this guy.  If you were willing, as I was, to toss the last out Gr 1 miss then his last four tries at this mile trip had been in a listed stakes and Gr 2 & Gr 3 company which resulted in two wins and two 2nd place finishes by a nose.  He was dead last into the turn, began to make up ground on the turn.  Split rivals, got clear in the lane, accelerated to the front and then it was a head-bobbing finish - AGAIN - where I truly was uncertain until the result was posted.....WINNER!

I'm having just a remarkable day!  At Santa Anita there had been a few turf sprints and when they USED to card them they were all down the hillside,   But today they'd been on the flat course until the finale.  I didn't see anyone that's a standout but I put a lot of stock in DRF analyst Brad Free's opinions.  And he made Carmen Miranda his BEST Bet of the Day.  Good enough for me.  Pinned on the inside behind the front runners as they swept down the hill to the top of the lane before the front runner drifted six or seven wide opening a gigantic seam for 'Carmen.  Shot through and won for fun.  And best of all, the price was $8.60 enabling me to cash for nearly $45.

Missed in the 8th at Churchill before it was time to close out the marathon day with my BET of the Day in the Churchill feature, the Roxelana Stakes.  Twice over the winter Bill Mott's filly, Frank's Rockette had dominated graded stakes sprinters.  Tonight she was the prohibitive 3/5 morning line favorite and it appeared she was WELL worth the low number.  Of the combined 83 lifetime numbers earned by the rest of the field there were two figures in the low 90's.  By contrast 'Frank had earned Beyers of 101, 105, 104, 103, and 100 in five of her last six starts.  I was watching the broadcast on "America's Day at the Races" with host Acacia Courtney, a social media gal-pal of mine that I've followed and had a "relationship" with for several years while she was the analyst here during the winter.  I had reached out to her earlier in the day and asked if she'd be on air tonight and she'd written back, yes she would.  So with about fifteen minutes to post I reached out to her again and asked if she, like me, thought that Frank's Rockette was just too good for these.  She replied within a minute or too, that yes she thought so as well.  Made my biggest wager of the day as they were approaching the gate.  She sat third, pinned on the rail to the turn before jockey Junior Alvarado let her loose.  Split rivals got to the front and drove home.  Wasn't a runaway "oh my" kind of win, but a never in doubt one as I cashed for the SEVENTEENTH time on the day.  Just WOW.

And now we're on to Derby week.  My plan is to play all the live races this week from Churchill to get "in the groove" for the big weekend!

Social Media this week.......
Much like last week I had multiple interactions with my online peeps.  The first of which came during the week when former Gulfstream handicapping hottie Acacia Courtney announced her Twitter account was back up and running, and I replied to which she reacted to my post.

Next, former student Jen posted a photo of her with her girls at Girl Scout camp and she too reacted to my comment.

My good gal-pal at school and hopefully my "track assistant" Jen and I exchanged comments as I know she's anxious to retire.

There's been quite a bit of rain of late and I reached out to new gal-pal buddy Jen Correa and asked her to "work her magic" to which she replied back to me :)

My really good gal-pal Karli Barnett messaged me back after I shared the news that I'd been asked to deliver an online presentation for Viking cruises.

On Friday I was scrolling through Twitter and saw that a race at Gulfstream had been won by a horse named Chloe's Toy which made for the perfect opportunity to reach out to cutie Chloe Nelson and she replied back to me.

Friday before we left for the arena the local CBS-4 Evening news did a story about our Panthers and I reached out to my girl Lauren who reacted to my comment.

Morning hottie anchor Jayce Birch reacted to my comment about her very cute outfit....she does always wear the most adorable outfits.

After the big win on Friday I watched the post game and I've become a really big fan of Panthers' analyst Jessica Blaylock.  She is so sincere in her passion for the boys and her reaction to the big win Friday was nearly as cool as watching the game itself.

While at the game Friday I reached out to my best-ever gal-pal Kimmy and sent her the pic of us at the game.  She replied minutes later.  Do miss having her around.

Several years ago Kim's assistant volleyball coach was our pal Michelle.  She and her family have since moved to North Carolina but we have stayed in touch.  She's always been so sweet and is quite attractive as well.

Saturday afternoon as I watched the races on Fanduel TV and America's Day at the Races I noticed that Acacia Courtney had not been on throughout the afternoon so I reached out to her and asked if she would be on air during the "Downs After Dark" races from Churchill.  She replied that she would.  I told her I'd be watching from the "Sunrise Simulcast Center" and before the big race, my BEST Bet of the Day I asked if she too thought the filly was just way too good for this field.  And minutes later - while on the air - she replied back to me.

Finally, on Sunday there were terrible storms north of us, including a tornado sighted near the weather station where gal-pal Jen works.  I reached out to her and she replied back.