Following the amazing Derby weekend two weeks ago, it would be unrealistic to believe I could have another such amazing run. But with the way the spring is going I was expecting to have another successful weekend. And as I near the end of the first two months of the Spring-Summer Racing Season I really think one of the keys to my success to date has been my willingness to be very selective with my races that I bet on. And to be fair, I've also had a good share of price play winners. So here's how the weekend played out.
Friday: Black-Eyed Susan Day
The late morning first race brought me the first of three winners on Friday. I'd had Brad Cox's Verifire in his debut on the Virginia Derby weekend undercard when he was a flashy winner earning a stakes worth Beyer figure of 92. Even a regression of several lengths would still put him in the winner's circle today. But first of a maiden win, at Colonial no less, I planned on a minimum play. But he was not only being pounded on the board but the analysts were saying he might be the shortest price and most likely winner of the weekend. So I doubled the bet. Broke on top, rated kindly and when the other thought they had a chance at the top of the lane he let out a notch and drew off by more than half a dozen without being asked. Very talented.
Races 2-3-4 and 6 were all "PASS" races for me, but I was patient. And in Race 5 I was the prohibitive 1/5 favorite, only to run 2nd; then in R7 I was the 4/5 favorite and was second again. Not the kind of day I had hoped for.....at this point. Next up was the Allaire DuPont Stakes going nine furlongs for older fillies and mares. Clearly Todd Pletcher's Candied was the class of the field. Since her debut win she'd run nine times, eight of them in graded events. The lone listed stakes was last summer's Lady's Secret and she was a runaway winner. If you bought in that she was just a cut below the best graded runners, then her resume looked a lot better. That was my view and I made her the "best" of the Friday picks with a triple investment. Tracked along the rail in third to the top of the lane, swung into the clear and ran off very impressively. Cashed for almost $40.
When I wrote my analysis for R9, the Hilltop Stakes for 3yo on the turf, I thought that Play With Fire could be the "Day Maker" bet of the day. Listed at 6/1 in the program I was hopeful to get maybe 5/1. You had to be a bit creative interpreting his past performances, but I thought he was a lot better than he looked on paper under Flavian Prat for trainer Brendon Walsh. Last into the far turn he unleashed a furious rally and just blew by the stunned field to win going away in dramatic fashion. Got late money to go off at 7/2 odds, but still cashed for $45 sealing a winning day. The last three bets, all stakes, were all wide open and I bet the minimum - two fourth place finishes and a 3rd. 37% wins on the day and a clear profit, I'm ok with that! Patience rewarded!!!
Saturday: Preakness 150 Day
Preakness Saturday began an hour earlier that the Friday card, and it wasn't until about ten minutes before the first race that I realized that. Missed at 7/2 when fourth. No bet in the second, but in R3 it was very similar to Friday's opener. Bob Baffert's lightly raced Varney was stretching out to two turns for the first time with two Beyer figures that said he should be the easiest of winners, IF he could get the added ground. Flavian Prat took him right to the front, controlled his speed nicely and let him set sail for home in the lane as he drew off impressively.
Came right back in the fourth which was the first graded stakes, the Grade 3 Maryland Sprint where I liked Steve Asmussen's Booth. Much like yesterday's Verifire race the analysts all said he could the the shortest priced stakes winner of the weekend based on his three race winning streak, including back to back Gr 3 wins like this making him the ONLY graded winner in the line-up. My concern was I'd had him in his last as the 2/5 favorite at Oaklawn. And he'd had to fight the entire length of the stretch to get the win, and his Beyer dropped. Was he starting to regress or would he improve off having to fight for one? I liked him enough to double the bet. Took command immediately and was well handled by the trainer's son to the top of the lane where he cut loose and drew off in an impressive final time.
I had also handicapped the Saturday card on the Jersey Shore and it presented very few runners that I thought were worth the gamble. In fact on the nine race card I had but three bets. Two of them won for me sandwiching three stakes losses at Pimlico. Persistent Danger was a surging winner at the wire paying a generous $6.40, and then Layered was a runaway winner paying an even better $6.80.
The 9th at Pimlico was the Jim McKay Turf Sprint going a short five furlongs on the turf. Witty had run second in this spot last year as a dead closer at 7/2 odds and for some reason was listed at 10/1 in the program. He'd used the same prep race as last year, and ran 2nd like last year again this year in the prep. Last by more than ten into the turn he came flying through the field to the top of the lane, got into the clear and ran by them all like they were tied to the rail. Cashed for almost $20 on the minimum bet.
Brad and Oliver were visiting over the weekend thru Sat evening and he'd asked me if I had a "BET of the Day" on the Preakness card. I told him that all the really good horses had run two weeks ago, so no, but the "best" today was in the 11th, the JW Murphy on the turf for 3yo's with Regan's Wit. So put a small wager down. After the Witty win I ran 3rd twice at odds on leading up to the Murphy. Regan's Wit was indeed best as he blew by to win going away as easily best :)
I topped off the Saturday by naming the upset winner of the Grade 3 Dinner Party in Shug McGaughey's Fort Washington. Much like Witty, he came from well off of it and ran off impressively paying $12 for a $2 wager. The Preakness was one of the most dramatic races I've seen as the favorite had all kinds of trouble in the stretch and then ran down the loose on the lead front runner who seemed long gone. Impressive.
Sunday at the Jersey Shore
Much like the Saturday program at Monmouth it was hard to find any horses worth betting on. At the end of the day I did find three on the nine race card. After running third at 8/5 in the first of the three wagers, I scored in the Sunday feature, the JJ Reily Handicap for New-Jersey breds. While you could make a case for several in this sprint, especially off recent form, I thought it was really hard to look past the past performances of Speaking. He showed five NJ-bred races, all stakes. Easy to toss the lone turf sprint experiment. The other four....two wins in the NJ Breeders here - a six furlong handicap. And wins in the 2023 and 2024 JJ Reily. OH. Somehow the crowd let him go off at better than 5/2 odds - what were they thinking? Right the front and never in doubt. Ran second in the final bet of the day but another day of clear profits!
Panthers Playoffs: This week we were working our way through the second round of the playoffs. After rallying from an 0-2 deficit with back-to-back wins last weekend the series shifted to Toronto for a pivotal Game 5. A win in Toronto would send the series back here for a Friday game that could wrap the series. Unlike the first four games we just blasted them out of the rink 6-1 sending their fans into a "boo-bird" frenzy, throwing jerseys on the ice, and leaving early in what the Toronto media called one of the worst losses in Maple Leafs history. So excited for Game 6 at home to wrap it up with a big celebration. Brad brought Oliver down - left school after a half day and we all were in the front row of Section 317 to enjoy the celebratory win.....
Only Toronto played well and we didn't have the same push. Lost 0-2 and now the game would be decided in a winner-take-all decisive Game 7. We were anxious for sure, but I've said from about mid-season on that we are REALLY good and while any of the good teams in the NHL might beat us on any given night, I honestly didn't think anyone had a good chance in a best-of-seven series. I also thought it worked against the Maple Leafs that they were under the intense scrutiny of the home town fans and media. They had to feel the pressure. Our guys, to a man, talked before the game about "enjoying the opportunity....something every kid hockey player dreams of, to play in a playoff Game 7." We came out on fire but didn't score. They responded and our goalie BOBBY made miraculous saves. 0-0 after one. And then the roof caved in on them as we rattled off three straight and the boo-birds were out again. Early in the third they scored, the crowd came alive and we have a ball game! For 45 seconds....we quickly scored again and put them away with two more goals for a decisive 6-1 victory! The Eastern Conference Finals kick off Tuesday in Carolina.
Social Media this week.....
Teri Hornstein was out in the rain early in the week and I felt badly for her.....wished for her to be on the desk and she replied to the same. And then later in the week she enjoyed the photo of me with former student at the Panthers game and she told me she was 36 years old, which I'd never have guessed.
I knew Lauren Pastrana wouldn't see it on Mother's Day but I sent her a virtual card anyway and when she did see it she thanked me. She did a "Walk & Talk" with the subject being to "share your gifts" with others and I chipped in saying what I do "best" is I'm the trip planner. I also shared how I had gotten a free re-order of flowers for Kim after hers seemed "aged" for the holiday. Lauren gave me a local florist she uses. Thursday she & Elliot were in the new "News-Verse" studio and I asked about the standing vs. being at the desk and how the graphics worked. She replied right back that she likes the standing and that their iPads are only their scripts. Finally, the best exchange was when Lauren reacted to my game photo with Kim, Brad & Oliver and then she reached out to me to help her by "liking" and commenting on a CBS-Miami post about the evening team. She expressed her appreciation for how I am also so supportive of her. And when I did post she was again very appreciative.
You never would have been able to convince me that after the amazing week I had on last week's Derby week programs, that I could have as good of a week again this weekend. But the Friday-thru-Sunday time frame was nearly as good! Started on Friday when our Florida Panthers - down 0-2 in their 2nd round Stanley Cup Playoffs with Toronto. Our oldest son Jeff was able to be in town so Kim gave up her tickets so it could be a Father-Son night. As we walked in we met Emma, our Panthers Ticket Manager so we posed for a pic. Then it was an EPIC game. Fell behind 2-0 and 3-1....roared back to tie it, then took the lead. They tied us.....went to overtime. Played for 15 minutes before our newly acquired star player threw the puck to the net and it ricocheted around and into the net sending the home town fans, including Jeff & I into a frenzy! What a start to the weekend!
Panthers Game 3 Epic OT WIN
So Saturday dawned as Opening Day at Monmouth Park. I play all their live races over the summer. But it's not as "intense" and/or time consuming as the winter at Gulfstream because from Opening Day through mid-June they only run on Saturday & Sunday. Then through Labor Day they run Friday thru Sundays. One of the things that appeals to me about Monmouth is that most of the races are either pretty clear as to who should win, or a complete "go figure." So I tend to do pretty well there. And of course jockey Paco Lopez is king at Monmouth, he seems to win four or five every day. The first race of the meet was scheduled to be run over the turf course but rains had forced the grass races to the main track. When I'd handicapped the race I liked Paco on a turf horse, but he was also listed on Concrete Faze who was a "Main Track Only" runner. The plan was to bet the minimum but Paco was taking money so I upped the bet. Pressed the longshot front runner into the turn, took over willingly and drew off as much the best. Paco - wow, so typical at Monmouth. And I was amazed at the bettors because 'Concrete had hovered at 4/5 from the opening bell but as they hit the far turn his odds showed up at a very generous 7/5 so I cashed for nearly $25. Well worth a photo op!
Paco at Monmouth....How hard is THAT to figure out?
Missed in the opener in New York at the "Belmont at Aqueduct" meet, where it was Belmont Stakes Preview Day, before I had a bet in the second race at Churchill Downs. Goldentown looked like a legitimate play to me in this $30K non-winners of two sprint as he was dropping out of a good third place finish in a $50K nw2L sprint. The only question was his form was over the synthetic and obviously at Churchill the main track is dirt. So I went for a minimum play. Broke sharply to the front, but was quickly joined by two others who surrounded him. Dueled to the top of the lane before edging clear then opening up triggering track announcer Travis Stone to call out, "....he's going, going, GONE..."
Missed in both the 2nd and 3rd on the Jersey Shore, fortunately it was NOT because I'd failed to bet on Paco's horse! That brought us to the second race at BAQ. This was the Grade 2 Man O'War going eleven furlongs on the turf as the first of multiple graded stakes in New York today. My pick was Christophe Clement's Far Bridge who had been a "prime time" play for me when winning the Grade 3 Pan American on the Florida Derby Day card. That day he'd been a very narrow winner coming off a layoff so I figured he'd be much fitter today. Just a five horse field let Joel Rosario sit patiently down the backside. Saw an opening along the rail approaching the far turn and shot thru to the front. Opened up under a hand ride turning for home and was long gone! Ironically, later in the day at Churchill Downs the horse who'd nearly upset him at Gulfstream was running in a Churchill turf allowance. Made me feel more confident in that pick.
After running second as the 3/2 favorite in Louisville I went on a three race streak, winning a race at Monmouth, Churchill, and Belmont. The fifth at Monmouth was a starter allowance requiring a start for a $6.25K tag or less. He's In Charge was a 7yo who'd raced at this level six times last year and won three of them while running a good second in two others. Off a short, three month break he'd resurfaced at Laurel in a starter for twice the price. Fired a four furlong bullet ahead of the race and then won! Now dropped back to this level, with another four furlong bullet - uh oh. AND got Paco Lopez. UH OH. Tracked the leaders up close to the far turn, slipped up the rail while well in hand. Dueled to the top of the lane before Paco let him go and it was all over. Tripled the bet to get a return of nearly $30 on my fourth winner of the day.
The fifth at Churchill Downs was a maiden special on the turf where NONE of the runners had run fas enough to reach par. Typically that's a "PASS" for me but in this case, Brian Lynch's Wedding Mood was coming off her first North American start. In that race at Keeneland she closed from off the pace to take the lead in the lane but was run down late. I felt that perhaps she'd been moved a bit prematurely there AND with one under her belt she could score here. The FanDuel analysts were all against her, but I stuck with my bet. Next-to-last down the backside before beginning to pick off horses through the far turn. Six wide into the lane with all the momentum she blew by the leaders and drew off by daylight! The 2/1-plus odds enabled my ticket to bring in nearly $35 to the growing bankroll. Less than ten minutes later they were in the gate in New York for an entry level allowance going a one-turn mile. I thought Quick to Accuse would not be favored with a Chad Brown runner in the line-up here. But what I DID like was that 'Accuse had twice before stretched from an elongated sprint to a one-turn mile - like today - and WON both times. Add that to the fact that he was 1-for-9 at all other distances and 3-for-7 at this one-turn mile. Tracked the leaders to the stretch, glided up and took flight for the wire, drawing off by daylight with my triple investment on board. When official I cashed for over $30 again running my three race winning streak cash total to almost $95! WHOOOO HOOOOO,
Two thirds and a sixth led to the 8th at Churchill Downs, a nine-furlong, second level allowance. It was here that I had found the horse, Corruption, who had given Far Bridge such a run for his money last time out in the Grade 3 Pan American. On his own merits the lightly raced Mark Casse runner probably would have warranted a "Prime Time" play. But the "other horse," son Norm Casse trainee, was a "Horse for the Course" and I was afraid that might trump my horses chances. So I went with a triple investment. Corruption shot right to the front when after the opening 16th no one else wanted the lead. Jockey Jose Ortiz held a daylight lead without asking his mount to the top of the lane. Confronted by two challengers he shrugged them off and drew off for the win. The 9/5 price led to a payoff of nearly $45. I'm having a very good day!
Fifteen minutes after the Corruption score, the horses were going into line for the Grade 3 John A Nerud at BAQ, the second of their graded stakes. The NY-bred Whatchatalkinabout had whistled home with a graded stakes worthy 106 Beyer in his last this past January. The question was, could he do that facing open company.....open Gr 3 company, and off a layoff. Trainer Wesley Ward had seen him blister two morning works in a sizzling :59.4 on April 22nd and then just nine days ago another bullet in an even faster :59.3. Dueled right out of the gate while in between runners. That kind of race flow will do in even the most seasoned of speedy runners, but Whatchatalkinabout gamely pushed to the front in the final 16th and as the three of them hit the wire nearly simultaneously it was him who won the bob. Was sent off as an underlaid even money choice I got back $20.
Ran second in the Monmouth feature, the Long Branch. I was irritated because after I made the choice I looked at who Paco Lopez was on and thought, "he SHOULDN'T win, but he might" and considered making the change. Even told Kim about it after he won the opener. But didn't make the change and lost. Sigh......Was almost 40 minutes later before Shisospicy went into the gate for the Grade 3 Mamzelle at Churchill, a five and a half furlong turf sprint. After running on the main track until two back, the filly had rattled off two straight turf sprint wins. At first glance I did NOT like that she was among the SEVEN horses exiting an April Keeneland turf sprint stakes, and liked it even less that she had won that race. But of the 90 combined races run by the fifteen on the page, none of those numbers would beat ANY of the LAST THREE figures she'd earned. I tripled the bet! Broke sharply from her wide draw up on the 6/1 front runner through wicked splits of :21.3 and :44 flat. And today they were traveling an extra 16th of a mile...can she hang on I thought? Took the lead and drew off impressively by daylight.
Missed the next three (off the board in two straight and then 2nd) before it was time for the Grade 3 Peter Pan at BAQ, the last race on my sheet. I thought the field was pretty evenly matched, but I was intrigued that Flavian Prat was riding for Chad Brown on Hill Road. He'd won at first asking in his native Ireland, then was outrun in a Group 1. Came to the US and was a flying third in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile to finish his 2yo season. Made his 3yo debut in the Gr 3 Tampa Bay Derby and again closed ground to finish third (again) behind loose on the lead Owen Almighty who finished 4th in last week's Kentucky Derby. I thought he had a good chance today. Was well back into the turn before he came flying on the turn picking off one horse after another. Five wide into the lane he kept coming and caught the leaders in the final 100 yards before edging away late.
The big day saw me with an impressive win percentage and a BIG profit on the day!
Before going further, I have to share very sad news......sigh. When Kim and I first arrived in Fort Lauderdale and began teaching at Piper High School we met Sue Reynolds. Quickly she and Kim became the best of friends and "the girls" became a close knit group of five ladies. When everyone would get together, there were only three husbands and Sue's spouse, Dan and I had little in common. But within a few years we found common ground and became THE BEST of friends. He and Sue loved to join us every year for the Florida Derby and they were our most special travel pals. In fact it was at Sue & Dan's request in 2016 for me to find a "big trip" for us that led to us going on our first Viking adventure and has paved the way for so SO many trips. Just fourteen months ago Sue & Dan were going on our Mediterranean trip featuring several stops in Greece before ending on the Italian Lakes and we'd had a FaceTime call to review excursion choices. Then Sue got the news no one wants, she was diagnosed with lung cancer. She battled bravely until a couple months ago when it was determined the treatment was not working. Saturday morning Sue passed away quietly. We so loved her (and Dan) and I can hardly wrap my head around her being gone. Won't ever take a trip without thinking of Sue, and most especially won't be able to go to a Florida Derby without thinking of them. Sigh.....
The "Fearsome Foursome"
Sue & Dan at the 2023 Florida Derby / Viking Oceans 2019 "Mediterranean Odyssey"
2018 Breeders' Cup at Churchill Downs / Our last trip - Hawaii in Oct 2022
Sunday I played only the Monmouth card. I often say that one of the things I like most about having the racing game as my interest/passion is that there's a story EVERY day. So today's story came in the third race. After passing the opener and finishing 5th in R2 we were on the turf for the first time this summer. It was a $16K "beaten" turf sprint and I liked My Boy Rocky for Jorge Delgado. The first thing that caught my eye was one of my favorite jockeys, Chantal Sutherland was on board. Noting that she was riding for regular partner trainer Jorge Delgado from when she rode regularly in So Fla I was more intrigued. The lightly raced 3yo had only been out four times. Three turf tries, two on the turf darkened the fact that his lone win came in a 5 1/2 furlong sprint over the GP Tapeta which often plays like turf. Went off at a fair 7/2 price and broke sharply. Chantal had him pressing into the lane, set him down and wore down the leader in the final jumps. I'll be the first to admit that one thing appealing about Chantal is she is super good looking - is, or was a model in years past. And I've followed her career and been a Twitter "friend" for several years. Had made arrangements to hopefully meet her when she was riding at the Fair Grounds a few years ago but then COVID hit. So after she won for the first time on the Jersey Shore I grabbed the photo of her in the winner's circle and during the trophy presentation and sent her a message. See the results of that further below :)
Ran third with my "BET of the Day" in the feature but bounced back with another win in the 7th, a turf route for $12.5K claimers. Yes, Paco was up on Gogo Chanel who drew off as the 4/5 favorite. Finished the day 2-for-5 and was nearly even.
The weekend wrapped with the second Panthers playoff game Sunday evening. During the first intermission Kim and I met up with one of my former students who'd brought her son to the game. And we won the game to top off a GREAT weekend! Next week is Preakness weekend so I'll have picks on Friday, Saturday and Sunday!
Social Media this week.......
I had a lot of "contact" with my online pals making me feel like I had a lot of friends :) but I didn't have a lot of "conversations. Without question the most "heart warming" exchange of the week came early in the week when I was just watching the screen saver run through pictures from our trips over the last few years. And as I did so, which often happens, I glanced down at the bookcase filled with memorabilia from trips and my teaching career and some significant photos. And the photography of my most favorite former student and adult gal-pal now, Kimmy caught my eye. I snapped a photo and texted it to her telling her I "see her" often and it always makes me smile. Within minutes the reply came back, "This makes me smile always" with a love emoji. Such a sweet girl. This is a collage of the several times we got together when she still lived here in So Fla.....
I saw on FB that my Florida Derby gal-pal Chloe and her radio-DJ partners were launching a podcast. I listened to it and enjoyed it a lot. Texted her and she replied back.
Thursday afternoon it was so pleasant on the back deck that Kim and I sat out there with a drink and I sent a pic of my wine to several pals, one of which was my "Disney-Girl" Amanda. Remarked to her that with the announcement by Disney of their plans to build a new theme park in Abu Dhabi we needed to make our plans to go there :)
Our oldest son Jeff seems to know "everybody" and you can't go anywhere, or so it seems without him running into people he knows. So when he and I went to the aforementioned Panther game it was no surprise to me that even though I communicate with our ticket manager Emma often, but we never see one another at the games, that we WOULD see her when Jeff (who shares her as his ticket manager) was along. Not only is Emma the cutest Panther ticket manager we've had, she's also the best one!
Continuing with the Panthers "theme" - two weeks ago I saw a photo on FB of former student Heather (see above) at the game with her son. Reached out to her and she excitedly was all in for getting together. We missed connecting at the start of Sunday's game but Heather messaged me to tell me they would come to us. How sweet. Look at her - can you even believe she graduated in 2005, which would make her 38yo? I told her she looks oh-so-much just like she did as an 18yo senior!
As I was watching the races on Saturday I watched the NY races on the "America's Day at the Races" telecast which is a NYRA affiliated broadcast. That means I almost always see my former Gulfstream analyst and gal-pal Acacia. Sure enough she was hosting early in the show when my BEST Bet of the Day won. I reached out to her because her husband is the assistant trainer to his Dad for this horse and she "liked" the pic/post.
When jockey Chantal Sutherland scored in the Sunday race at Monmouth, I clipped the pic from the live feed of her in the winners' circle and sent her a message via Twitter since I follow her. Wasn't right away, but she did "like" the message and sent me a heart :) You can see why she's noted as the "World's Sexiest Jockey!"
Tuesday of this week I had MOSE surgery on my shoulder. When I woke up Wednesday morning my gal-pal, weekend anchor Teri was sharing the weekday desk. I reached out to her and she was very sympathetic about my procedure. Also exchanged messages following the epic hockey win.
Of course, as per usual, the most communication came with CBS-Miami evening anchor Lauren Pastrana. She too, very sweetly I might add, wished me well on my shoulder. I was also very impressed when early in the week they did a story about removing floride out of the drinking water in the state and I reached out to ask what she knew....within minutes she messaged me back with her thoughts. I sent her highlight pics from Derby weekend on Monday - as I do with all our trips - and she messaged me back as to how good those were.
