Summer 25: Week 2

 Belmont Festival Weekend

June 4 - 8

It was an extended five day racing week as the Belmont Stakes Festival was held at historic Saratoga from Wednesday through Sunday with stakes races on every card.  The weekend was highlighted by my visit to Orlando where I got to see both my grandson and son play hockey and went to a lecture on Ancient Egypt with my daughter Julie.  Just a wonderful weekend from start to finish.  Racing kicked off on Wednesday which was largely devoted to NY-breds.  The day started off with a bang as I won two of the first three bets of the day.  In the Mike Lee Stakes, a 3yo seven furlong test I preferred Train the Trainer who was coming off of his MSW win in his second start.  He'd changed barns after running second on debut in So Cal where FIVE horses exited to win next time out.  He looked like he might be the speed of the speed.  Right to the front and never looked back.

The next bet was a MSW turf sprint where I was a distant ninth at 3/1.  Next up was the nine furlong Commentator Stakes.  The big question for me (and for handicappers in general) was if anyone would run with Mama's Gold who had the rail and looked loose on the lead.  He'd upset my pick, Bank Frenzy in this event at 40/1 but today I didn't think that would be the case.  But the race played out as expected with 'Mama shot right to the front.  Bank Frenzy caught her turning for home but 'Mama would not let go and re-took the lead inside the 16th pole before 'Frenzy edged clear late.

Unfortunately in last five races I ran second three times, one of which with the "BEST" of the day, which would become a theme for the week....and third in the other two races.  So we moved on to Thursday where two of the first three races were two-year-old stakes races.  In the opener, the Tremont for the colts I found it VERY intriguing that (a) trainer Jorge Delgado would ship from Gulfstream to Monmouth and on to Saratoga to run his FILLY against the boys when he could have entered her in R3 which is the companion 2yo stakes for the girls.  But Mythical looked to be the quickest of the quick and if he thought this was her best shot, I was on board.  Rocketed out of the gate and was clear by daylight before the boys could get out of the gate and never looked back, drawing off through the final 16th impressively.

My selection in the MSW second scratched so the next wager came in the Astoria where a field of 2yo fillies would race for top prize money.  Much like the angle in R1, Sassy CW looked to be quickest early.  I commented in my analysis that perhaps in the long run 'Sassy may not prove as talented as one or two of the other fillies in this field, but it was all about TODAY's match up.  I also thought it very interesting that in twenty years of handicapping races regularly I don't think I've E-V-E-R seen a horse earn the comment "Rocket ship" to describe how they left the gate.  I was watching the races from Churchill the day Sassy C W debuted for Larry Rivelli and that description was no exaggeration.  Expected much the same today and sure enough the gates opened and as the other fillies took their first two strides Sassy C W was a bit slow into stride and there wasn't a clear leader.  That didn't last long as by the time they'd cleared the opening quarter she had put a daylight lead on the field and never looked back.  Two-for-two to start the day!

Ran 4th at 9/5 in an entry level turf event before betting on Velvet Vortex in R6.  This was a mile race and Saratoga a couple years ago built a chute at the bottom of the clubhouse turn so that mile races are now 1 1/2 turns - very unique and it doesn't favor one-turn mile runners or two-turn mile runners.  But I thought she fit the profile of an entry level allowance like this - a lightly raced maiden winner who'd shown ability against winners.  And it was top rider Flavian Prat for top trainer Brad Cox.  Broke from post eight so she was wide to the back stretch but then cleared the field and drew off as much the best as the 4/5 favorite with my double investment on board.  3-for-4 to start the day!

But much like Wednesday, that proved to be the end of the cashed tickets as in the last three races I ran 2nd twice and third in the other race.  I was really excited about Friday because it was as big a day as any day in racing with six graded stakes, the last three of which were all Grade 1 events.  Started the day running second at 4/5 in a MSW race before Works For Me got me my first cashed ticket.  This race was a turf sprint for second level allowance runners.  His last two Beyers were the best on the page, and for me it was a plus that the first of the pair was earned in a stakes last November, then the latter came off the bench in a just-miss try.  Flavian Prat was on board.  As the field turned for home there were literally seven lined up across the track but Prat cleverly had stuck to the rail and shot through a narrow opening saving all the ground.  Burst through at the 16th pole and edged clear late.  Had been 8/5 in the program but the crowd let him go off at a juicy $6.60 price so I cashed for over $30!

Ran second at 2/1 in another second level allowance before the graded stakes action started.  As I've often said, there are many "tools" in your box when handicapping and it's all about figuring out which "tool" is the right fit for today.  In the Grade 2 Bed O'Roses Chad Brown's Ways and Means was my pick.  Several in here COULD win but 'Ways had run 3rd on Derby Day behind the division leader to set her up for this.  Had fired a best-of-45 bullet for this, but the KEY was she had run HUGE over this track last year winning the Grade 1 Test.  She loves it at Saratoga and when she was asked for her best turning for home she put on a show drawing off effortlessly.  In fact the "America's Day At The Races" analysts remarked that that may have been THE performance of the week.  So, SOOOO much the best.  The rain began to fall but R8 stayed on the grass and Asbury Park circled the field and drew off like a graded stakes winners facing maidens in a MSW turf test to give me my third winner on the day.

Wasn't surprised when I lost the Gr 1 Ogden Phipps which looked wide open (ran 6th at 5/1) but I have to admit I was surprised and very disappointed in the result of the Grade 1 Acorn for 3yo fillies.  Good Cheer was unbeaten and had won the Gr 1 Kentucky Oaks by daylight earning another speed figure that "paired" with her two back number beat 40 of the combined 41 Beyers earned by the rest of the fillies in the field.  Never picked up her feet as my BEST BET and was a dismal fifth.  Not to be dissuaded I was "all in" with a "prime time" play on She Feels Pretty in the Grade 1 New York going nine and a half furlongs on the turf.  She had to work a little harder than usual but drew clear late to get me back on track.  Thought I'd close the day with two in a row when Excellent Truth was flying late inside the 16th pole in the Gr 1 Just A Game but came up just short behind the 10/1 upset winner.

Saturday:  Belmont Stakes Day

I'd been looking forward to today for a LONG time as today I was spending the day with my daughter Julie and we were attending a lecture by the leading Egyptian archeologist at a hotel near Universal Studios.  Unfortunately from a racing perspective the skies open up to torrential downpours early in the day that washed all the turf races off to the main track, and it was so bad that the two big turf races late in the card were cancelled completely and moved to Sunday.  Missed in the second after passing the opener as the 3/5 favorite when caught late to be 2nd.  Scratched in the third, passed the fourth and fifth.  The sixth was the Grade 2 Wonder Again scheduled on the turf for 3yo.  Mark Casse's Nitrogen has been so, SO much the best 3yo turf filly that she was a prime time bet for me.  But after the rain the field was reduced to only three running the unique mile trip.  I was surprised that Casse left his star filly in the field, so I thought "who am I to question how good she is on dirt?"  She pressed the leader to the far turn, took over effortlessly and drew off in what announcer Frank Mirahmadi called "nothing more than a public workout."  That I got paid at all was amazing considering how much better she was than her rivals.

Came right back in the Grade 3 True North with Book'em Danno.  I thought the race set up for someone who could finish and sure enough the pace was hot.  Collared the surviving front runner at the furlong pole and drew clear as I cashed for a generous more than $30 on the 2/1 price.

Much like Friday I thought that Fierceness was the BEST of the day in the Grade 1 Met Mile.  Was right on the hip of the front runner into the lane and looked ready to roll then never got by.  ALMOST as surprising as Good Cheer not winning the Acorn.  Off the board in the Gr 1 Woody Stephens before it was time for the Belmont.  While this was running Julie & I were at the Egypt lecture.  After the presentation there was an open Q&A session and I told Julie I wouldn't mind staying for a few minutes, largely because I wanted to watch the Belmont.  Sovereignty was my pick and I told the several people who asked who I liked that I thought the Derby winner would run even bigger today.  Sat closer to the pace to the far turn when he waited and let the favored (false favorite I thought, ever since the Derby) Journalism take off and assume command.  Jockey Junior Alvarado swung into the clear with dead aim on his rival and it appeared briefly like we were in for a real showdown between the Derby and Preakness winners.  But Sovereignty never broke stride and drew off to a decisive and emphatic score.  As the 5/2 second choice I was rewarded with a nice $70 payoff to ensure a winning Saturday at the races in spite of the weather and changes :)

Sunday wrapped the week.  I had two wins at Monmouth - both triple investments; had an impressive 2yo debut winner in Angel Gift at Saratoga; and won the Soaring Softly Stakes which had been scheduled for five and a half on the turf but was run on the main track.

Belmont Festival Weekend Highlights

The Orlando Weekend - Had such a good time in Orlando.  Got to see my grandson Oliver play in his ice hockey league and was so proud of how hard he competed.  Got to watch the dramatic double overtime win by our Florida Panthers with Brad & Lauren which ended at about 12:30am.  Then Saturday the Egypt lecture and day with my daughter Julie.  Topped the weekend by watching Brad play in his Sunday night playoff game before driving home and arriving at 10pm......so I'd be rested for Monday night's Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs at our arena!

Social Media this week.....

I had more than the usual "conversations" this week.  Early in the week it was my "Disney Girl" Amanda's birthday.  Despite being in her late 30's and with three "kids" (one in HS), she is still a huge Disney fan.  So for her FB birthday wish I looked up what happened in the Disney trivia on this date.  When I messaged her it was the day that the animated film "Atlantis: The Lost Empire" debuted she wrote back and said she'd have to watch it.  Then that evening she sent me a photo of their living room TV with the movie on :)  Love my Mandy - what a great gal-pal.

At Cypress Bay High, the principal's personal assistant Sha and I worked closely every year on Graduation.  We've stayed close friends ever since, though we've only gotten together once in person.  When it was the FB Memory of the Day about our epic graduation at Marlins' Stadium where we hosted then Vice President Joe Biden, Sha and I had a conversation.  She asked if I'd be interested in meeting for lunch  I of course said I was so very interested and so we made a date for two weeks down the line.

Jennifer was one of my teacher pals and I congratulated her on finishing another year of teaching.  She's been talking about retirement for several years and I "offered" her the position of assistant track player :)  But she plans on going back in August.

I was so very proud of my gal-pal Chloe who's a successful Country DJ in Orlando this week.  She was offered to host a TV commercial for a local car dealership.  And when I saw the video on YouTube I had to immediately reach out and tell her what a natural she is.  

Finally, as usual I had several interactions with Lauren.  She was amused at how ironic it was that Oliver's team was the Oilers - who we are playing in the Stanley Cup Final.  And she reacted when I complimented her on yet another community project she took part in.

Finally, I so SOOO very much enjoyed "chatting" with my girl Petra who you may recall we met on our Nile River Cruise.  I sent her a photo of my daughter and I at the Egypt lecture and the next day we chatted for almost half an hour.  She's such a pretty girl but so sweet and Kim and I are both glad we've stayed in touch.

Summer 25: Week 1

 Penn Mile Weekend - NOT

Friday at Penn National was their signature "Penn Mile" card and it's the only day of the year that I play the races there as they have multiple turf stakes, featuring the Penn Oaks and the Grade 3 Penn Mile.  As they were heading to the post for R2 it was announced that because of the weather ALL of the turf stakes for the evening's card were cancelled and postponed to Friday June 20.  Disappointing.  But Saturday was a big day at Churchill Downs featuring multiple stakes races on the Stephen Foster Preview card.  The day started off as I continued my recent roll as six of the first nine handicapping selections I made won.  But from that point in the day, about 3pm, until the end of the races for me, about 6pm, I had only one more winner.  I have to say that at some point I knew that my near 50% wins had to slow down.  But I don't think there were many handicappers who had good days on Saturday.  Here were just a sampling of the winning prices vs. the price of my picks:

6/5 - $20.40 / 8/5 - $16.70 / 4/5 - $68.44 / 6/5 - $25.20 / 2/1 - $28.78 / 5/2 - $143.30 / 3/1 - $28.60

As you can see, I was on the "right" horse from handicapping logic, but the upsets were on!  To be perfectly transparent there were five races on the day - including both of the day's BEST at Churchill that scratched out and I made five "fun bets" that I won't count against my handicapping since they were not my handicapping selections.  You may not think that's right....but it's my journal, they are my records and that's how I keep them :)  The first race on my sheet was a nine furlong maiden special weight on the main track at Churchill Downs.  Bill Mott was stretching out Excite in his second dirt try with Irad Ortiz up.  Mott had another runner initially but that one (who I also liked) scratched out.  Excite pressed the co-favorite into the far turn, then readily took over and drew off impressively through the stretch.

After dropping the opener on the Jersey Shore, the second race was a cheap $5K with conditions that read, "have not won two races since November 30th."  On paper Magical Warrior looked very tough, even in a cheap spot like this as he dropped out of an OPEN $8K where he was 2nd beaten less than a length, and he looked loose on the lead.  Dueled to the far turn, edged clear and when confronted by the closers into the lane responded and drew off in hand.

I played the Woodbine card and won the only race of the six I bet on when Fighter In The Wind scored as the 6/5 favorite.  Missed the next two before we were headed into the gate for Race 4 at Churchill.  It was a MSW going seven furlongs and I started my analysis by noting that it would be a "post time decision" who I liked.  There was a Brad Cox firster that I liked, but Bill Mott was sending out Kapoor for his third try after back-to-back show finishes.  He had strong 73 "paired" figures and was fastest on paper.  As the wagering opened and I listened to the analysis from the FanDuel "experts" I switched to the experienced Mott runner.  Broke like a shot and quickly was daylight clear.  Never looked back and drew off impressively at 6/5.  Came right back in the fifth at Churchill when Clicquot drew off at a healthy 2/1 price to give me my fifth winner.  And I made it a trifecta of three straight winners when English Painter drew off as the prohibitive favorite at Monmouth as the "best" of the day on the Jersey Shore for me.

That was that as I lost the next four (three as short priced favorites).  Got the 6/1 upset winner of Churchill's Audubon Stakes on the turf with World Beater who was flying down the lane to be JUST up in time.  And with that win and five graded events of the next eight selections I thought I was about to take off for another winning day.  But instead I had ONE second and two thirds to show for those eight races.  Sigh.....not good.

Sunday I had only the Monmouth card but I was watching the FanDuel telecast.  And early on in the program they talked about how in Race 7 it was an "interesting" situation as Brad Cox's Most Wanted had scratched out of Saturday's Grade 3 Blame Stakes going two turns at nine furlongs to run in this fourth level one-turn mile allowance.  That was of particular interest to me because he had been one of my "BEST Bets" of the Day in the Blame.  With this field I believed that he'd be a decisive winner so I added him to my selection sheet.  Passed the Jersey Shore opener and in R2 it was the first juvenile tilt of the season.  All firsters and I had a "post time decision" on my hands.  The field of seven had six with trainers that were a combined 3-for-45 with debut runners but Dee's On Dow came from a 21% first time starter barn.  BUT the rider was 1-for-16 at the meet and Paco was on the other top choice - but his barn was 0-for-7 with starters.  What to do.  Initially the Paco runner was well bet, but the more I looked at it the more I was convinced to go with the trainer numbers, and I did.  'Dee proved easily, EASILY best!

Ran fifth, followed by back-to-back 2nd place finishes - the latter of which saw Paco beat my choice in the stakes race feature and pay an unbelievable $13.20.  When will people - including me - learn?  Next on my list was the "audible" bet at Churchill Downs.  They interviewed trainer Brad Cox and asked why he opted to scratch out of the stakes to run here and and cut back in distance.  His reply made me even more confident as they were thinking he might be more effective at mid-distance races and could point for the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile if he ran well today.  He was a prohibitive 1/9 until close to post time before floating up to a more "fair" 1/5 price.  Cashed for over sixty dollars in his runaway performance with my "BET of the WEEKEND" $50 wager!  WHOOOO HOOOOO.

Shortly after the race Kim and I headed to Cooper's Hawk for a belated Mothers' Day dinner courtesy of our oldest son Jeff and his wife Trista.  When we returned home I had two late races to watch.  In the ninth race, a claiming sprint for a cheap $12.5K price tag, Paco was riding Don't Listen.  While the horse was a mere 1-for-9 in his career, he'd been running in $40K and $50K races.  Was let go at a remarkable 6/5 price.  Pressed the 8/1 front runner then glided by effortlessly and drew off in hand.  In the 11th and final race I wrote, "....you either take the short price on Paco or you're just guessing...."  I Believe In Magic had come off the shelf in an OPEN $6.25K race and faded to fourth.  Dropped into an OPEN $5K race and won.  Last out up again to $6.25K and faded to fourth.  Today, drop back down to $5K and a restricted one at that.  Tracked the 4/1 front runner to the turn and blew by without being asked, cantering under the wire for Paco's remarkable SIXTH win on the day, WOW.

For the weekend, I was officially 29 / 11 - 3 - 5 .....that's an ok 38% win percentage.  I'm ok with that, and as I told Kim - while I'd like to make a profit it's more about (a) winning / being right and (b) hitting the BEST Bets.  So on those counts, I am content with the weekend's results.  next week it's a full five days of racing for the Belmont at Saratoga Racing Festival!

Social Media this week......

I have found it interesting that my gal-pal Teri - the weekend anchor and weekday reporter - just "likes" my messages & photos these days.  Especially on the weekend I'd message her with a photo and that would trigger a multi-message conversation while she was on the air.  And if she wasn't on air we'd typically exchange several messages, not just about the photo.  But now it's just been "likes."  Still that we're connected is good enough for me at this point.  We'll see how she is once we begin traveling again.

Kimmy reacted to my message following our Panthers win in the Eastern Conference Finals.  I so very much miss having her local where we can get together and exchange stories.

Lauren Pastrana & I had multiple "conversations" this week.  Early in the week I told her about how I'd lined up two couples to join us on our 2027 "In Search Of The Northern Lights" trip because last week she'd done a "walk & talk" about sharing your "gifts" and I said my "gift" was getting people to travel with us.  Then the next morning I gave my feedback about their new "News-Verse" which has panoramic screens.  It's really cool and we've "talked" about Lauren liking to stand during the news cast, but I remarked I miss the close ups.  She replied back that they are working on that :)  This week she did another "Walk & Talk" where she shared concerns about kids in general over the upcoming summer break.  I commented to her that they were all very real concerns but let her know that once your kids grow up, the concern never goes away.  She quickly wrote back to tell me her Mom is always saying that to HER.  It brought a big smile to my face when I sent her the overview preview pic for our upcoming Alaska trip and she wrote back with a "Happy Friday" greeting and told me she'd be solo that evening - she knows how much I like seeing an "all-Lauren" newscast.  The next two days when I sent Day 1 & Day 2 Alaska previews I got "likes."  But we closed out the week Sunday when she posted a reel that she was trying to get over the anxiousness of going back to work and that she's "just that girl" from when she was growing up.  I gave her my heartfelt comment that she will always be "just that girl" that she remembers from her early years inside herself, but that she's a very special person to all of us that know her now.  She quickly wrote back, thanking me by name :)