The Keeneland Fall Meet opened with "FallStars Weekend" and the host of big stakes events which nearly all serve as preps for the Breeders' Cup. And so before heading over to Cape Coral to see one of our oldest son's high school games I handicapped the Saturday card and had eight picks on the day. In the opener I liked Golden Bear in a two-turn maiden claimer. Pressed the pace in third to the far turn and stopped to finish ninth at 6/1. In the second, a 2yo MSW sprint I was torn between a Steve Asmussen first timer and a Brad Cox second time starter. That one, Kaely's Brother had finished a nondescript 6th beaten a little more than nine lengths as the tepid 3/1 choice in an Ellis Park debut. None of that is material worth recommendation my friend. But hang on a tic.....he was "bounced around at the start" and ran evenly during the race. Second, the top two in the field finished SEVEN clear of everyone else so Kaely was only two lengths out of hitting the board, with trouble. And finally, since then he'd worked a bullet over the Keeneland strip. With second start improvement I thought he looked best and wanted to see how the crowd played the Asmussen runner. BUT, we were in the car heading back home with the race went off so I had to go with the initial bet. He was stalking in fourth around the far turn, made a 4-wide bid to the front, cleared and then held off the closers to score as the 3/2 choice.
Ran third in back-to-back races at 9/2 and then 7/1 before the stakes action started. The 6th at Keeneland was the Grade 2 Woodford Stakes, a five and a half furlong turf sprint. Golden Pal was the 4/5 morning line favorite and I'd tabbed him at Saratoga. While watching the pre-race analysis on America's Day At The Races they had interviewed trainer Wesley Ward and he commented that this guy was "the best horse" he'd ever trained. WOW. And he looked the part that day. Off of that win in a Gr 3 he'd been sent to Europe for a Group race and finished close, but out of the money. IF that trip did not take too much out of him he looked much the best in here. The bullet work over the turf here last week eased any qualms about readiness and I made him the BET of the Day. Right to the front, and appeared to be in hand under Johnny Velazquez to the far turn, but entering the stretch he was collared by the third choice and I had that "Uh oh" moment. But Velazquez had saved something and when asked, Golden Pal spurted away to draw off handily.
The $3 payoff was generous I thought and I cashed for $30. Next up was the Grade 2 TCA Stakes for older female sprinters. Belle's The One is a Churchill Downs sprint specialist, though to be fair, she's also won a couple of races outside of Louisville. But last time out I'd bet her and she'd just missed there while closing quickly. I noted that at this six furlong trip, she was at her best. And with the open-air outside box draw I thought she'd have a clean trip. The field broke away and quickly three of them went to the front setting the table for my top choice. She was quickly multiple lengths behind, more so than I expected, but as the field neared the far turn she noticeably quickened. She glided up to challenge for the lead into the lane and got her head in front with a furlong to go. It had seemed to me that she moved too early and with a sixteenth to go the 14/1 longshot began to gobble up ground. But the wire came first and I had my third winner on the day.
Missed on the last two, both Grade 1 events, but both minimum investments. In the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity for 2yo going a mile and a sixteenth my pick, Todd Pletcher's Double Thunder was a sharp second at a big 7/1 - oh that would have been nice. And then Order of Australia - who'd upset the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Mile last fall here at a big price, ran like a big price instead of the 6/5 favorite he was today when 12th of 12 in the Grade 1 Keeneland Turf Mile. Sunday there was more racing action from Keeneland but I didn't want to handicap for the day and honestly didn't have time. But I had read that current Breeders' Cup Distaff favorite Latruska was running in the Grade 1 Spinster on this day. I read hottie handicapper Gabby Gaudet's analysis of the race and Latruska seemed even more formidable when Gabby noted she was the lone speed. I have NEVER felt like she was nearly as good as she is given credit for. I bet with her in a win at Churchill this summer and that race, like this one seemed light for the level of competition. As she skipped away to the easiest of leads while watching the race I said to my buddy Keith (who's staying with us now for a while), "She's going to win today but the best part is she'll be way too short a price in the Breeders' Cup and we'll get good value on someone else because I WON'T be betting her that day." She won by four lengths officially but if you watch the replay that was an awfully "close" four lengths and she seemed to be working hard to hold the lead over these overmatched foes. Still, got the win and finished a nice 4-for-9 for the weekend.
This week's other news and photos.....
Ready for our ELEVENTH Viking cruise in Eastern Europe in a month!
While in SW Florida, after the game Keith and I joined Jeff to re-hash the game at the local bar which we'd frequented many times last fall, the Big 10 Tavern. We caught up with "our girl" Morgan who always remembered us (and still does to this day) and met a new cutie - Bailey - as we stayed up way too late for our age :)
Hottie Bailey (blonde) on left, "our girl" Morgan (brunette) on the far right
During the week I had several "conversations" with my Twitter gal-pal, CBS weekend anchor Karli Barnett. The most fun of which was when Texas A&M kicked a field goal as time expired to knock Alabama out of the top spot and make room for her alma mater, the Georgia Bulldogs to assume the top spot. Note that I messaged her as the ball sailed through the uprights at 11:49 and she immediately replied from the anchor desk at 11:50 :)
Karli on the anchor desk early in the week
Karli's Dawgs win as she preps for the Saturday late night sting
The upset was on - somebody's a happy Georgia Bulldog fan
And on Sunday, Karli posted regarding mental health, and I commented and she responded. An important issue to be sure.
Check out our online cruise page to see all the photos and read the stories of our trip HERE
On Friday September 24 Kim and I flew out of Fort Lauderdale International bound for Seattle to meet our great friends Mary Pat & Tom and Pam & Bob for an American Cruise Lines sailing adventure through the Pacific Northwest in the Puget Sound. While we were on our trip two big racing Saturdays came and went. The day we were in Seattle and boarded our ship it was Pennsylvania Derby Day. Prior to our departure from home I'd handicapped the card and had selections all day at Parx and one "gimme" pick from Belmont. The winning action started off in the third in Philadelphia in a starter allowance where Sevier was the 4/5 choice in the program. Left the gate as a deserving 2/5 favorite and waltzed home for victory number one on the afternoon.
The only race NOT from Parx I played was the Grade 2 Kelso Handicap going a one-turn mile at Belmont. Here Life Is Good was the prohibitive 1/5 program choice in a short field of four and he went off at 1/9. The Bob Baffert 3yo had suffered his first defeat last time out going 7f at Saratoga in the Grade 1 Allen Jerkens to current 3yo sprint champion Jackie's Warrior in an epic stretch duel. He went right to the front under Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith and was easily, EASILY the best.
Race 6 from Parx was the Plum Pretty Stakes around two turns and Chub Wagon was trying a two turn route for the first time today. IF she could handle the trip she would be the winner. It was close but she held on to score.
Silver State looked clear and gone in the stretch in the Parx Dirt Mile only to be caught on the line. Missed in the next two stakes at Parx before it was time for my BET of the Day in the Grade 2 Gallant Bob, a six furlong sprint for sophomores. And here the aforementioned Jackie's Warrior was the deserving short priced favorite. He made very short work of the field and scored without taking a deep breath.
Closed out the first racing Saturday of the cruise adventure when You Must Chill surged through the final furlong over the Parx turf to capture the Alphabet Soup Stakes. On Saturday October 2 we were scheduled to depart the ship at 8 am and our flight was at 12:50 pm. Of course these were Pacific Standard Time, so it was only an hour from first post on the east coast. I'd looked over the entries for all the major stakes races that would serve as final preps for many Breeders' Cup races and at first glance came up with eight horses I thought were very likely winners. Because I anticipated being in the air and unable to watch and wager at the time of the races I made the decision to only play the horses I was CONVINCED would win. I made the three bets before we left for the airport in Seattle and I was pretty certain - because we had a narrow time window between flights in Dallas - that I'd watch the three replays once we returned home late that night. We landed in Dallas about twenty minutes early so as we taxied towards the gate I opened up my Xpressbet.com app and watched the replay of the Grade 3 Lucas Classic from Churchill Downs. Multiple Grade 1 winning Knicks Go was EASILY the best horse on paper, but unfortunately for everyone else he was also the LONE SPEED. Right to the front and went wire-to-wire without breaking a sweat.
By now the plane SHOULD have been at the gate but we were told there was another plane at our gate and we'd have to wait on the tarmac for "less than ten minutes." OK - I've heard this before!!! When we landed in Seattle they'd said that and we waited nearly an hour. Good thing we were early because with each passing moment it became more and more anxious for us to catch our connecting flight home. But from a racing perspective I now had time to open up Race 3 from Santa Anita, the Grade 2 City of Hope Mile where Mo Forza looked to earn a trip to the Breeders' Cup Mile on the grass. As they hit the far turn he was still towards the back, but I know he's a late runner and NEVER wins by a big margin. In a perfectly timed ride he struck the front less than 50 yards out and edged to victory on the wire. Whoooo hoooo, two for two.
Had we moved towards the gate yet? NOPE. It was nine minutes to post time for Race 9 at Santa Anita, the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive going a mile and a quarter on the grass. This was a KEY race for MY horse Going To Vegas. When she'd won the Grade 2 John Mabee a month ago I - and my fellow owners - were told that the target next was this Grade 1 which was a Breeders' Cup "Win and You're In" event with the hopes of getting Going To Vegas into the World Championships. If she didn't win or the managers felt it wasn't a good fit, they'd disburse the winnings from both races to the shareholders. BUT if she won both, the plan was to utilize the winnings to get into the field.
The day before, on Friday, I'd received an email from MyRacehorse.com with a video analysis of the race and both of the analysts agreed, with her natural speed Going To Vegas - who liked to be up front and pressing the leader - probably would be loose on the lead. That made me up the bet from a double to a triple investment. Sure enough, jockey Umberto Rispoli sent the mare right to the front and she settled into an easy gait with a daylight lead. She was clear into the lane when her stablemate, a Euro import making her second North American start with top So Cal rider Flavian Prat on board began to make her move. Going to Vegas had enough to hold on, and now we're Breeders' Cup bound! While on the cruising adventure I'd bet fifteen races and won EIGHT of them :) That's 53% for those of you without a calculator handy!
Puget Sound Cruise Racing Highlights
When we returned from the trip, it was about 10 pm and I reached out to normal CBS-4 weekend anchor Karli Barnett and asked if she'd be on tonight, I'd missed seeing her while away on a trip. As it turns out she too had been away. This marked the first time one of my "anchor girls" and I had had an online "conversation" that was NOT based off of a posting they had sent out. It made me happy :)
It's a limited season - in terms of days played and races handicapped, but the Fall Championship Racing Season is always highlighted by the Breeders' Cup World Championships in early November. Typically I try to attend, and had every intention of going this year, back to Del Mar. But travel is resuming and we are booked on an Eastern European river cruise just days following. I'd fly back from San Diego, have a day to unpack and re-pack, then fly across the Atlantic AND across the European continent....decided that was NOT how I wanted to start that two week adventure. So, after a complete weekend off last weekend (Saturday September 11) - which I think was the first Saturday since last November I did NOT play the races - I was at it today. It was DeFrancis Dash Day at Laurel with multiple stakes on the card, Jockey Club Invitational Day at Belmont with three big added money turf events and a big marathon stakes, Woodbine Mile Day in Toronto with several supporting stakes on the undercard, and finally it was "Downs After Dark" at Churchill with four stakes on the card with the highlight being the Grade 3 Locust Grove. My buddy Keith was there for the festivities and we texted all night long. The day was a frenzy of activity.....College Game Day came on at 9 am, kickoff for the first game was at noon; the first post for the Laurel opener was at 12:40 and I had racing selections until 10:45 pm, just before the final whistle of the last college game I watched. Literally had three streaming videos going with the big screen showing the games - ALL simultaneously. It was nuts but I loved it!
Started off my first bet at Belmont was a Todd Pletcher 2yo who was 3/1 in the morning line and left the gate at an overinflated 8/1. Second best.....would have been a good way to start the day for sure. Missed with the 4/5 favorite at Woodbine before I claimed my first winner at Laurel. In the second, it was a Starter Optional Claiming sprint going six furlongs. Princess Kokachin had debuted for another barn in a high priced maiden claiming event, moved to another barn to break her maiden in MSW company had not seen a tag - besides that debut, with one exception.....a Starter Optional Claiming for $25K, like today, which she'd won! Uh oh. Went right to the front from the rail draw, dueled through the opening quarter, edged clear heading into the far turn and drew off by more than half a dozen lengths. And the best part....went off at better than 4/1 odds. Oh I wish THAT one had been a double investment. Still, cashed for nearly $30.
The next bet was also from Maryland. My original plan was to bet Brittany Russell's first time starter, Click To Confirm with a minimum play because I did NOT like the prohibitive 7/5 morning line choice. But when that one scratched everyone joined my selection and so I upped the bet. Tracked the leaders through the far turn, drew on even terms at the top of the lane and edged clear in the final 100 yards for the win at 4/5. The double investment got me back almost $20.
The fourth at Laurel was my BET of the Day in the Weathervane Stakes. As I said in my analysis, the bet is strictly Hello Beautiful, period. Toss her fading try in the OPEN Grade 3 Barbara Fritchie and the other five races dating back to October 2020 earned figures that would beat EVERY LIFETIME number earned by today's rivals except one. And that mare had faced Hello Beautiful and was soundly beaten head to head. 'Beautiful boasted a 7-for-8 mark over the track and a 6/4-1-0 record at today's six furlong distance. Add in she was the LONE SPEED - long gone. The gates opened and literally in two jumps she was four in front. Maintained that under a motionless hand ride to the top of the lane. Rider asked for a spurt and quickly the margin was a pole before he geared her down. Somehow she went off at a payoff of $2.40 and I cashed for almost $50 on the BEST OF THE DAY!
Next up was the first of the graded stakes at Woodbine, the Grade 2 Canadian. The locals all looked evenly matched and that made Chad Brown's shipper, La Dragontea even more appealing. She'd improved with each start in North America save one and in that one she'd had significant trouble. Jockey Joel Rosario sat just off the front runner, never moved all the way into the stretch and when the others began to really run he shook the reins and she scored by more than a length without being asked for her very best. Went off at a generous 6/5 so another $20 and change went into the Xpressbet account.
The first of the big stakes at Belmont was up next, the marathon mile and 5/8 Grand Prix Jockey Club Invitational on the main track. Lone Rock is tons THE marathon dirt horse in North America so no surprise he left the gate at 1/9. Before the race I reached out to hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney who was broadcasting live on "America's Day At The Races" on FX1 and said, "obviously the most likely winner of the day" to which she replied minutes later - YES, WHILE ON THE AIR - that she agreed (see photo below). I could tell as they came out of the far turn he wasn't going to run away with it but I was certain he had the measure of the front runner. Floated about five wide off the turn - which I thought interesting at best - which allowed the horse from last (in a five horse field) at 18/1 to shoot through up the rail. "INTERESTINGLY" this horse had the same owner as Lone Rock and won by about a quarter of a length. Was the fix in? I'd like to think not because the trainer was hottie handicapper Maggie Wolfendale's husband. The fifth at Laurel was another starter event, but this was a nine furlong turf race. Gator Bite shipped in from NY off a 4th in a state-bred stakes. Looked good enough to me for the minimum. Went off at 4/1 but was third. BUT.....Xpressbet was running another of their "money-back" promotions and so by hitting the board I got my money back. I "win" and "cash" even though I ran third. WHOOOO HOOOO. My pick in Laurel's 6th scratched and I went back and forth about making a play on my second choice, but opted not to in the end. Good thing, I'd have lost. In the fifth at Woodbine I liked the 9/5 favorite in a 7f turf dash. Rated right off the leaders to the stretch, got a head in front with a furlong to go and then was swallowed up by the late runners, eighth. Next up was the featured event in Maryland, the Grade 3 DeFrancis Dash. The question was, which Jalen Journey would we get today. In spring/summer 2019 he ran well enough to head out to Southern California in big graded stakes and ran well without winning. Off for more than a year trainer Steve Asmussen sent him out in an Oaklawn $40K event and he ran away....came right back and dusted $50K claimers. Asmussen MUST have seen something because he sent him to Dubai for the $1.5 Million Golden Shaheen. Didn't show up. He returned second off that trip to beat-up second level Belmont allowance runners and last time out blasted the field in Saratoga's Tale of the Cat. Good enough for me to gamble he was headed back to his best. He tracked the leader into the lane while third, was gaining as they hit the furlong pole, and the winner drifted out. Now to be fair, my horse never had to check, but he did have to run wider throughout the final furlong. After the race I waited for maybe an announcement, nothing.....but as the winner got close to the winner's circle the announcement came that there would be a steward's inquiry and there was an objection with the focus being on the run through the stretch and it involved the unofficial winner and the runner-up.
They looked at it for the LONGEST time, so much so that I told Kim when she walked by, that any time there is this long of a delay it almost always results in a DQ and that would mean I'd win....and I did cashing for nearly $35 instead of losing $15 - that's a $50 swing for those of you without a calculator!
Missed at Woodbine and then in the 9th at Laurel my triple investment on Phat Man in The Polynesian Stakes saw him run third, but again, I "cashed" for $10 to minimize the loss.
Dismal effort in the 8th at Woodbine and in Belmont's Jockey Club Oaks Invitational I thought Creative Flair was the LONE front runner. The Euro rider had another idea and sat third from start to finish. The ninth at Woodbine was the co-featured Grade 1 Pattison Canadian International going a mile and a half on the turf. Trainer Charlie Appleby had brought over two top-notch Shadwell Stables runners to a late spring Grade 1 at Belmont and ran 1st-2nd. Kept the two here and they ran 1st-2nd in a Saratoga Grade 1. Now he had Walton Street for the same outfit. Immediately he rated the nod for me over the locals. There was another Euro invader who...for what ever reason....the DRF morning line made HIM the program favorite despite the fact he was a 9yo who'd not won a race since 2019. Oh my. Finally, international superstar Frankie Dettori had made the trip "across the pond" to ride. This guy had won four in a row before missing in the Group 1 Dubai Sheema Classic to superstar Mishriff and then last time out ran erd behind an exceptional filly in a German Group event. Unless he didn't fire, he'd win for fun. Frankie had him in second some half dozen lengths behind a runaway longshot. Cut into the margin as they approached the turn, caught him and ran by without taking a deep breath. When Dettori cut him loose the response was instantaneous and the route was on. Won by a pole. After the winner's circle photo it was time for Dettori's patented leap from the saddle - ALWAYS a highlight event :)
Less than ten minutes later they were in the gate at Belmont for the $1 Million Jockey Club Derby Invitational. Much like the Woodbine Grade 1 event, the best runners in the field looked to be the Europeans and like Woodbine, the one I liked best was another Charlie Appleby/Godolphin runner, Yibir. Comparing his TimeForm figures to the other Euros he was clearly better. And all week I'd seen his name in the headlines as the one to beat. Heading into the far turn of the mile and a half contest I was thinking that, "well, it's difficult to judge Euro form based on the Racing Form" as he had been dead last from the get-go. But as the field entered the turn the runner gave him the "GO" sign and immediately he began to accelerate. Picked off horses one by one while running at least five wide. They straightened into the lane they were five across the track, ever-so-briefly, as Yibir was, as today's race announcer Chris Griffith (in from Parx) said, "Yibir is MOWING THEM DOWN" as he blew by and won going away. Best of all, somehow the "obvious winner" was let go at better than 5/2 odds and paid $7.30 allowing me to cash for well over $35. BINGO BANGO BONGO.
Less than ten minutes after that it was the finale at Laurel in a money allowance for turf sprinters going five and a half furlongs. Sky's Not Falling had no where to go turning for home, but found a seam, split rivals and burst through to win going away at 7/5 for my FIFTH win in Maryland. You NEVER know where you're going to get your winners. And that's particularly ironic because today I wanted to play the races because of the "Downs After Dark" card and multiple stakes at Churchill Downs. And there, I only cashed one ticket (but it was the big one)....while at Laurel, a "late minute addition to the program" produced more than half the winning tickets on the day.
Went on an eight race skid, the last six at Churchill - where four of the six were either second or third, but no money back specials, that's a shame. Probably was if I'd bet with Twin Spires. Keep an eye out for that next time Mr. Mark! And that win came in the Churchill Best Bet in the featured Grade 3 Locust Grove. Last year's Kentucky Oaks winner and multiple graded stakes winner Shedaresthedevil was the obvious choice. She was here off a trip out west where she rolled to victory in the Grade 1 Clement Hirsch. These gals should pose little problem I thought. The gates opened and from her widest-of-all post 7 she was in front and on the rail within three jumps as she outjumped the field easily. Cruised around to the top of the lane, but instead of running away she had to work hard to maintain the margin, but she did and I had my ninth winner on the day as I cashed for almost $50 to close out a most amazing day.
Saturday September 18
Racing Highlights
Social Media
It was a pretty "busy" week for my social media with the "celebrities" I am glad to call my friends. It started off on Thursday when my top anchor girl Lauren Pastrana was back from a brief vacation....that same day on a video she posted she posed a question about what her followers thought about the state of Florida dropping the end-of-year test for high school graduation.
Then on Friday Lauren posted a "shameless selfie" which I commented on and asked her about the previous day's question and the responses.....
Then on the evening news she was partnered with my other favorite CBS girl, Karli Barnett, so I reached out to them and like the first two posts this week, BOTH girls replied to me while on the air. I don't know but I just think that's super cool.
And then Saturday during the racing I was watching - as I watching college football - I reached out to hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney who agreed with my top pick of the day at Belmont. Ironically that was the 1/9 favorite that lost - wow.
And Saturday Lauren posted about her Mom telling her she wasn't a good oral reader, but now she's a news anchor. I reached out to remind her how much we appreciated her and got a response within minutes :)
Lastly, one of my former students, who I have been close with for years - and her story is one day right out of college she decided to change her life and left for Hawaii to become a Delta Airline attendant - posted that she was in Amsterdam. I reached out and told her how envious I was and that we were about to resume traveling....got right back to me. Such a sweetie.
The week began early and was extended late due to the Labor Day Holiday. The first win of the week came with the first pick of the week on Tuesday. That's right, we once again began the week early, and it was at Parx in Philadelphia. That's because last week on Smarty Jones Day the scheduled Grade 3 Parx Dash was washed off the grass. Management made the decision to cancel the race and move it to this week. MOST of the field remained intact and I still liked my top choice from last week, The Critical Way enough to be a "prime time" play. He seemed to have his front-running rival in his sights as they hit the top of the lane but a HUGE longshot burst through on the rail and opened up with a clear lead while The Critical Way was wide into the lane. Began eating into the margin but the wire was coming fast....PHOTO FINISH! Was nearly certain I'd won, but that was a lot closer than I'd have thought it would be. Still - cashed!
Wednesday and Thursday were pretty unproductive. Only Saratoga KEY Plays on Wednesday. The first one scratched; ran 2nd in the 4th - won with the 9/5 favorite Freudian Fate in the 8th and missed at 4/5 in the Grade 3 With Anticipation for 2yo runners to close the day. On Thursday Kim and I headed over to Cape Coral to see the grandsons and to watch our older son (Jeff) coach the Riverdale Raiders football team in their home opener against North Fort Myers. Went winless with five selections from the Saratoga & Del Mar. Friday wasn't much better - but Kim and I did enjoy lunch with our great pal Anya and her husband Jack at our favorite Cape Coral restaurant, Ford's Garage. I had picks from Monmouth, Saratoga & Del Mar on Friday and won with the first one and the next to last one - that was it. But if I had to trade that for a win by the Riverdale football team, I'm ok with that. And we did hang on to score a 13-6 victory. Mid-morning Saturday Kim and I were back on the road to return home. I divided my time between watching the college football games and my limited selections from Monmouth, Saratoga & Del Mar. Well, let's be up-front and honest here....there was more attention to the football because from the first post for me at 12:15 pm until almost 5 pm I had two, count them....2 winners from 13 selections. WOW. But, the good news was I closed the day by winning six of the last nine, including the two BIG Bets - AND the most anticipated race of the day. Here's how the latter part of the afternoon and evening played out.....
In the eleventh at Monmouth I "kind of" liked Friendly Fella in this starter event. I was a big leery because she'd just won two weeks ago, and that was in a starter who had run for $8K or less, or a $16K price tag. And today she was in under conditions that required you to have raced for $6.25K or in for a $12.5K tag. Dropping off a win and right back on short rest? Hmmmm. Decided to go ahead for the minimum. Rated to the far turn, took over and drew off as the 8/5 favorite.
Right back in Del Mar's third, a six and a half furlong sprint under starter allowance conditions! Took Charge looked best, but I was edgy about him being caught in a speed duel. Top rider Flavian Prat got her loose on the lead and she held off the competition to give me back-to-back wins.
I had a "Club play" at Saratoga and was a whopping 29/1 in Saratoga's 10th. Rad to his odds, twelfth. Then it was time for the feature at Monmouth, The Red Bank and my pick here - Chad Brown's Value Proposition - was my BET of the Weekend. This Klaravich runner had been my top pick in the Lure Stakes at Saratoga a month ago, but as the field began to load into the gate jockey Irad Ortiz began gesturing animatedly to the gate crew. Value Proposition had lost a shoe. After some deliberation she was allowed to run, but for purse money only. Now back with what I thought was softer company, and with all four shoes on (duh), I thought he'd run big for Paco Lopez. EASILY for Paco's remarkable seventh win on the day. WOW.
Less than a half an hour later it was time for the Saratoga feature, the Grade 1 Flower Bowl. Bill Mott had unveiled a monster turf marathon female in War Like Goddess earlier in the summer. I had her last time when she dominated the Grade 2 Glen Falls here. Looked even more formidable today. The only concern - on paper - was no pace to set up her late kick. But she seems so talented that this probably would not batter. Didn't - blew bay as tons the horse with a "prime time" bet on board for me :)
Missed two and then it was the "story of the day." If you recall - if you follow my racing adventures - three weeks ago one of MY horses, Got Stormy, was running in the Grade 1 Fourstardave. I went back and forth about betting on her and in the end decided to go with my handicapping selection and I'd be content if she won with the owner's share of the payout. She DID win and I missed a generous payday. So the feature at Del Mar on this Saturday afternoon was the Grade 2 John Mabee on the turf. MY horse, Going To Vegas was entered and was a contending 4/1 in the program. I was encouraged that the DRF's Brad Free made her his top choice. I said to myself, I'm NOT making the same mistake again and I too made her my betting selection. She sat THE most ideal trip under new rider Flavian Prat - the top So Cal jockey - as our regular rider went with the program favorite. Not sure what the crowd saw, but they made our filly the favorite and Prat delivered. Sat right off the leader from the moment the gate latch sprung, then blew by and held off the closing rival with our regular rider. I tripled the bet and cashed for well over $40!
Found it interesting that for the time being we owners will NOT be paid as our managers are considering a start in the Breeders' Cup. Since Going To Vegas is NOT Breeders' Cup nominated we'd have to pay the entry fee which is not cheap. We all received a message that with this win and if we win our next start in the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive then there would be enough winnings to pay the fee and we would seriously consider running in that prestigious event. If we don't run for what ever reason our share of the winnings will be distributed later on. The last race of the day saw Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert unveil a first time 2yo, Corniche who'd brought $1.5 Million at the sales ring. He ran like a superstar in his easy win as I scored for the eighth time today.
Sunday turned out to be the winningest day of the week as I piled on another TEN wins to the total. Right off the bat we were in the winner's circle at Monmouth as V.I.P. Who as he dropped in class and went two turns. Looking in his past performances he had mixed form UNLESS you filtered out only the two-turn trips like today. Looked strong. Everyone else say that as he went from 1/2 as they left the gate to 1/5 as they hit the back stretch. Easy-peasy-pie. Right back in the second, a maiden claiming turf sprint where I liked Adele Kat. Trainer Jimmy Ryerson shipped her down from Saratoga and dropped her in price. Sent off at a generous 2/1 and change under Paco Lopez she was trapped behind horses at the 16th pole. A seam opened and she exploded through.....PHOTO FINISH! Oh, so close, but another winner :)
Two-tof-two on the Jersey Shore to start the day, whoooo hooooo. Next pick on the selection sheet was a maiden event on the turf from Saratoga. Chad Brown was sending out Coalition Building on the class drop from a near-MSW ($75K) to this modest $40K spot. Tracked from the back half of the field to the turn, moved up while saving ground, then switched out into the clear heading for home and sprinted to the front to win by daylight.
Ran 6th at 13/1 in the fourth at the Spa with another Club play and then had yet another Chad Brown class dropper on the turf. There were two Klaravich runners in here, coupled in the betting. I preferred the class dropping Milestone Payment, who was trained by Brown and fit the Club criteria. But trainer Jorge Abreau was sending out first-time starter Party Line Vote. They shot out of the gate for the 5 1/2 furlong journey and right away things did not look good for "the pick" as 'Milestone was well out of it. But the entry-mate was right up on the pace, opened up turning for home and ran away. YAY - gotta love entries when the "other" one wins :)
Off the board at 5/2 on the Shore before winning my third race of the day at Saratoga, and another maiden event. This one however was NOT a club play, but rather an expensive Todd Pletcher 2yo debuting runner. First, the field was very un-Spa like in terms of apparent quality; second, Classy Edition had drawn a $550K bid at the sales ring, so SOMEBODY thought he could run; and finally, Irad was up on the program favorite. Swung up to join the trio of leaders four wide turning for home and then took off in a strong run to the wire - maybe the field wasn't very deep, but he was impressive in victory today.
Minutes later two-year-olds were filing into the gate at Monmouth for their feature - the Sapling Stakes, also for two-year-olds. But these colts would be going two turns and a mile in distance for the first time. I felt like Double Thunder had an edge as he was the only one who'd defeated winners when he came back off his maiden win to take Churchill's Bashford Manor. Was a non-threatening fourth in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special last time out. The question was the distance. As the field turned for home he sat fourth and seemed to be traveling evenly as another colt surged to the front. But once his head was turned for home he found another gear and blew by to score going away.
Had a big 7/1 price on an Asmussen first time 2yo, second to the favorite. Good bet, no payoff. The tenth at Monmouth was a one-mile turf event for non-winners of two lifetime. Why Not Tonight had shown little in her first three starts, all one-turn dirt events. Moved to the inner around two turns and won for fun with a new career top some 20+ points above her previous best. Her next two saw her run fourth, with similar numbers, against BETTER and OPEN company. Today dropping in class from a starter allowance to a modest $16K nw2L - uh oh. Had no where to go turning for home, dcked to the inside and found a seam....blew by to win going away. WIN #7!
Somehow my pick in the 11th at Monmouth, the 3/5 favorite could do no better than second before it was time for the BEST Bet of the Day. On Opening Day at Saratoga the first Progressive Handicapping angle winner came home early in the day with Steve Asmussen's first time two-year-old filly, Echo Zulu. She was really sensational that day. And because I had plays every day I watched the "Saratoga Live" broadcast every day. At some point every week, and on most days....especially the last two weeks, conversation at some point turned to this filly and how special she had seemed to be. And that everyone was looking forward to seeing her run back in the Grade 1 Spinaway on Closing Weekend. Well, here we were. She was the solid 8/5 favorite in the program and was heavily bet as soon as the wagering opened. I felt fortunate that she went off at 3/5. Went right to the front, took heat through quick fractions (:22 - :44) - especially going seven furlongs, but at the top of the lane jockey Ricardo Santana gave the filly the cue and it was all over but the partying. Ran up the score by daylight and without being asked for her absolute best.
Three evening races from Del Mar remained on my sheet as I began watching the Florida Gators take on FAU in their season opener. Ran 2nd at 5/2 in the first of the trio before in the 8th I knew I had a M-O-S-T probable winner, but wouldn't make any money. Flightline was a 3yo who had debuted in April at Santa Anita for John Sadler. He'd WALKED with the race earning a stakes-worthy Beyer of 105 while stopping the six furlong teletimer at 1:08 and change. This turned out to be THE FASTEST six furlong time of any class for the entire meet. WOW. That he left the gate above 1/9 was a generous gift. Right to the front. Effortlessly widened with each stride in 1:08 and change again. YOWZA.
The last race of the day was in the finale of the card. Big Coupe had reached the "end of the line" as far as my handicapping was concerned. The 5x maiden (I just don't trust any runner who's failed six time to score, unless it's highly unusual circumstances) had earned the field's best figure when coming off the bench last time out and he got Flavian Prat today. If ever he would score it would be today. That he had two seconds and three thirds from his five starts made you question his desire to pose for pictures. But today, right to the front, managed perfectly by Prat, opened up in the lane and ran away to the easiest of wins for the big TENTH win of the day. Within the hour the Gators closed out the win and the 24-hour sports sweep was complete.....Riverdale Football - WIN / Going To Vegas - WIN / Florida Gators - WIN!!!
The final day of the summer season - although Monmouth continues to run for another month, I've found that the better horses and trainers have long since left, and I conclude my daily handicapping over the Labor Day weekend. The first play at Monmouth came in the 2nd, an allowance sprint where I thought Bronx Beauty deserved another chance. She had been in nothing but stakes all summer for her, and her last win was HERE last September in the Regret. It was of interest that her three losses this summer here were the first times she'd ever run here without winning. If you watch the highlight video below, inside the furlong pole she's wide, and apparently running evenly while at least three plus off the winner. But something kicked in and she blew by to get the victory at a generous 3/1 price.
Ran third at 3/5 and 8/5 in the next two on the sheet - the first the Gr 2 Bernard Baruch with a four horse field at Saratoga. Before in the fifth at Monmouth The Predicament was the pick. You have to use all the tools in the handicapping tool box and this one had nothing, really to do with the horse. Trainer Andrew Simoff is based at Delaware Park. He's brought six horses to Monmouth and won with FOUR while running second with another one. He knows how to spot them. Patiently handled in fifth along the inside to the top of the lane. Shot through an opening and burst through to score - again at a generous 3/1 price.
Missed in two before I got what turned out to be the final win of the Saratoga meet with Chad Brown's Consumer Spending in the 8th, a MSW for 2yo on the turf. On August 8th he'd run second to his entry mate - who'd been my top pick and now it was his turn. Drew off late at 3/2 for the win.
In the featured Grade 1 Hopeful EVERYBODY liked Todd Pletcher's Wit - sent off at 3/5 he made his big move into the lane, but instead of blowing by the leader he ran evenly to be second. Missed with the first play at Del Mar as the day wound down and then in the 7th Bob Baffert had two runners in a one mile allowance. I liked Leading Score to wire the field from the rail, but he scratched. Wasn't sure if I liked the uncoupled entry, Laurel River who'd never been two turns before. But Flavian Prat was up and he was being well bet. Moved the money to him. Wire to wire impressively!
And that did it for the day. But for the extended week, it was a good six days of handicapping:
Began totaling the numbers and check out how well Monmouth was.....
How about this for consistency.....the last time Monmouth had a full summer of racing and I played every day from Opening Day through Labor Day was the summer of 2019. That summer I played a total of 276 races and won 114 of them for a 41.4% win average - WOW.
Closing Week Highlights
Summer Handicapping Totals
Social Media Action So this week saw me in touch with a few of my social media friends. One of my best gal-pals at Cypress Bay when I worked there was Shari Bush. Her daughter Danielle had her 24th birthday this week. And the significance of Danielle to me is this - ever watch the CBS show "FBI?" The two partners that are featured are a guy and an attractive brunette girl. Well, Danielle is an FBI agent - and looking at her photos you'd NEVER guess that this attractive young woman is in "real life" the same kind of character portrayed on television every week - but she is!
I also reached out to my favorite television anchor Lauren Pastrana as she brightened the afternoon early in the week.
And I was in touch with my other most-fav anchor, Karli Barnett who - sadly - is a big Georgia Bulldog fan. I (as well as Lauren Pastrana) am a huge Florida Gator fan - big time rivals :) And then the first of the week Karli was in for Lauren on the evening anchor dress, in a "Gator Blue" dress. Had to reach out. She's such a good sport :)
Later, after the weekend LAUREN was in Gator Blue, so I reached out to her as well.....love playing with the girls :)
And lastly, my hottie-handicapper pal Acacia Courtney responded when I reached out to her on closing day at Saratoga.
