Derby Week 2022

 May 3 - May 7

What a great week it turned out to be!  As the week began I was in Ohio and had flights booked home on both Monday May 2 and Tuesday May 3 because I wasn't sure when the Florida Panthers NHL Playoffs were going to start.  When it was announced early Saturday that it would be on Tuesday I cancelled the flight for Monday and headed back to Fort Lauderdale Tuesday afternoon.  I arrived in town at about 3:30 pm which relates to the racing for the week because Churchill Downs had an extended "Derby Week" of racing that kicked off with races carded on Tuesday.  I looked at the entries for Tue-Wed-Thur on Monday while in Ohio and because I was standing at a win total of 9,995 I wasn't going to play more than a couple of races.  I didn't see anything that interested me with the exception of the featured race on Tuesday, the Issac Murphy Marathon going a mile and a half on the dirt.  For nearly a year now Lone Rock has dominated the marathon distances on the dirt and sure enough he was the short-priced morning line choice.  I made the bet before I left for the airport and they left the gate as we were flying over the Ohio border by my estimate.  As soon as we touched down I opened the replays on my phone and watched as he went wire to wire, drawing off through the lane!

Thursday afternoon my oldest son Jeff and his family arrived and the four boys headed out to the arena for Game Two of the Stanley Cup playoffs.  We'd lost Tuesday and needed to have a solid performance.  Got it with a decisive 5-1 victory and had some great photo memories as well.

Kentucky Oaks Day

Friday was the BIG Kentucky Oaks Day and I had eleven selections on the card.  I passed on the opener and had the 3/5 favorite in the second.  Looked like a winner until mid-stretch before finishing second.  But if you recall, all week you get your money back for running second or third....so I "WON!"  Whoooo hooooo!

Passed on the third and in the fourth it was a second level allowance going a mile and a sixteenth on the main track.  There were "reasons" to go against Juju's Map who was trained by Brad Cox but not for me.  She'd not been seen since early November and this would be the 3yo filly's first try against older.  But of the combined 121 Beyers earned by the rest of the field only ONE would beat one of her last two and that was earned by a rival who'd never before, or since, run that well.  Meanwhile Juju's Map had run those last two figures AT this distance in her most recent starts.  The first was a decisive win in the Grade 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland and the second was a best-of-the-rest 2nd in the Grade 1 BC Juvenile Fillies behind champion Echo Zulu.  Oh.  Right to the front and LONG gone under cruise control as MUCH the best!

The fifth was the Grade 3 Modesty and before even looking at the field I was in a bad mood!  Why's that you say?  Well, you see, Churchill Downs, Inc. owned Calder Race Course - my "hometown track," and they closed it because it was more profitable to only operate the casino.  They also owned Arlington Race Course - my all-time most favorite race track.  And every spring Arlington would host a series of turf races that would serve as preps for their signature Arlington Million Day turf events.  The prep for the Gr 1 Beverly D was the Grade 3 Modesty.  Wait - but this is at Churchill right?  YES - that's the problem!  Last summer Churchill Downs, Inc. sold Arlington for it's real estate value and "absorbed" some of the traditional stakes races for their own track.  Just not right.  But, back to handicapping the race.  It was difficult to look past Chad Brown's Bleecker Street who was unbeaten and had ripped off back-to-back graded wins at Tampa.  IF you wanted to take a shot, that would be the angle.....that she'd not seen top notch rivals in Oldsmar this past winter.  Turning for home she was well back and rallying wide, which was impressive because they'd crawled the opening segments through a :50 and 1:14 pace.  Her stablemate, Fluffy Socks had rallied to the front and began to drift out.  'Street's rider dove down between rivals, surged and was UP IN TIME!  HORRAY!

The sixth was the Grade 1 La Troienne and was my BEST Bet of the Day with Brad Cox's Shedaresthedevil.  She was a multiple graded stakes winner that was 7-for-11 at the trip, but more importantly was a perfect 5-for-5 at Churchill Downs which is often a tricky surface for horses.  AND she looked to be the lone speed.  Right to the front, opened up turning for home but was caught in the shadow of the wire.  STILL - because of the promotion I got $20 back.

The seventh was the Grade 2 Alysheba for older handicap horses.  During the winter Bill Mott's Olympiad had won an allowance at Gulfstream then shipped to the Fair Grounds for a graded event.  At the time I thought he was a rising star and he proved me right by winning.  Came back on the La Derby Day card and won again in the Grade 2 New Orleans in decisive fashion.  I thought he looked very strong in here.  He pressed the pace to the far turn, took over but was headed turning for home.  At the furlong marker you could see that the horse was not about to let this happen.  He battled back and not only got back in front but drew off impressively through the final yards.  A quality score!

In the Grade 3 Edgewood - a 3yo turf event - which was next, I thought it was a fairly wide-open affair.  But I went with Chad Brown's Dolce Zel.  Made a good late run but too little too late.  Still, again, hit the board in third so I got my money back AGAIN!

Next up was the Grade 2 Eight Belles for 3yo fillies going seven furlongs.  Brad Cox's Matayera showed a pattern that's very typical of three-year-olds.  In her first several races she'd won a single race and had earned Beyers in the upper 70's to low 80's.  But two back in a Fair Grounds nw2L allowance she'd exploded with a big win earning a career top 91 Beyer figure.  Recognizing that she'd suddenly found herself Cox entered her in Keeneland's Grade 2 Beaumont at this same 7f.  She ran off as TONS the best with another new lifetime top figure of 95.  If she was legitimately as good as these last two figures - which made her a "Double Advantage Horse" because they were BOTH better than the combined thirty-eight figures earned by the rest of the field - she would win for fun.  She dropped over to the rail from the eight slot down the backstretch and sat mid-pack.  Moved into the clear turning for home and drew off handily to score, my fourth winner on the day!

Ran a disappointing fifth in the Kentucky Oaks and was third in the finale, but again got my money back in this MSW sprint.  So for the day I'd bet ten races and cashed in EIGHT of them!  We're off to a great start to the weekend!

Kentucky Derby Day

By mid-morning our youngest son Brad and our grandson Oliver had arrived along with our daughter Julie.  What a great way to spend the weekend - the Kentucky Derby, my three "kids" and all three of my grandsons!  And to make the day even better, BOTH of my sons were playing the races from the "Sunrise Simulcast Center" with me!

I kicked off the day by running a good second at a nice price of 7/2 and got my money back.  I like this promotion :)

I passed the 2nd, and was a non-threatening 7th at 5/2 in the third before passing on the fourth.  I'd be less than honest that I wasn't a little apprehensive at this point for two reasons......I'd had a good Oaks Day and I was hoping NOT to disappoint today, and more importantly the first win on the card would be the milestone 10,000th of my handicapping career.  In the fifth, the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile and like nearly every other graded stakes on the turf in North America, all you have to do is find the Chad Brown runner....AND like nearly every other graded stakes on the turf in North America there is more than one.  Same here.  But Speak of the Devil got a big endorsement from me.  First, as a Euro import she immediately classes up with these Gr 2 rivals.  Second she had SIX races that earned a TimeForm figure that would translate into a triple digit Beyer and there were NONE of those in the rest of the field.  Next, she showed not one but three photo finish losses in Euro Group 1 races, far more competitive that this Grade 2.  Add in that at all other distances Speak of the Devil was 1-for-5, but at the mile trip 4-for-9.  Oh.  Finally, Chad Brown was a big 39% with Euro imports making their first start in North America at a wickedly good $2.37 ROI for every $2 wagered.  Was an added bonus that she was owned by one of Brown's long-time Clients Peter Brandt who OFTEN brought Euro imports to the States and won graded events.  Had to be worried when she was last on the far turn, but as announcer Larry Colmus called it, she BLITZED right by the field to quickly assume command and drew off for my first win of the day!

And yes, that was the BIG ONE - number 10,000!  Congrats to ME!

I ran fourth at 5/1 in the sixth, the inaugural Knicks Go Stakes.  Race 7 was the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile for three-year-olds and here was my BEST Bet of the Day.  Which brings up an interesting point I often try to share with people who know me and reach out on Kentucky Derby Day.  The card for Derby Day HAS to be viewed like any other day at the track.  Yes it's a big day with a huge crowd and lots of stakes races.  But just because it's a big event and especially just because it's the Derby does NOT mean that's the "best" bet on the day.  Here Jack Christopher, a lightly raced colt trained by Chad Brown was a stand out.  He'd been one of the star juveniles last year and had finished the year winning the Grade 1 Champagne at this same one-turn mile trip.  His debut maiden win would beat all combined 73 figures earned by today's rivals, and then the even better Champagne figure was tons better.  As long as he wasn't a 2yo one-hit wonder he looked TONS best.  Pressed the pace to the far turn, glided up while still in hand and ran off a much, MUCH the best!

One of the most exciting things that happened on Derby Weekend 2021 came with my "UPSET Special" choice in the Grade 2 Eight Belles.  That day I'd picked Obligatory to run them all down in that seven furlong event, and she'd done so at a huge 16/1 price - chased for over $170!  I had her again when she won the Grade 3 Chiluki here under the Twin Spires, and a third time when she won at Gulfstream towards the end of the meet.  As I looked over the field for today's 8th, the Grade 1 Derby City Distaff there looked to be a lot of speed which would set her up for her big closing kick again.  I wasn't nearly as confident as with Jack Christopher, but I was willing to go in at a double investment, especially at the morning line number of 7/1.  She left the gate at 7/2 and things were looking grim when they hit the far turn and Larry Colmus called out that she was trailing the field by some fourteen lengths.  Instantaneously I had the thought that she was too far back, but immediately thought....I've seen her do this before!  She began to move and was making up ground quickly.  Jose Ortiz had her in the clear turning for home some six or seven wide and the pace had been hot.  But could she get there.  Suddenly inside the final furlong she seemed to find yet another gear and accelerated past to win going away at a generous $9.60 payout, allowing me to cash for nearly $50!

Oh I'm having a good day!  The Grade 2 American Turf for 3yo was next.  Sy Dog had won at Keeneland at a fair price last time out to remain unbeaten and he was the tepid 9/5 favorite today.  Came on through the lane, but too late - third.  Again, cashed out the refund :)

The tenth was the Grade 1 Churchill Downs going seven furlongs and IF Jackie's Warrior ran to his best races he would wire this field for fun.  The only thing that kept me from making HIM the BEST Bet of the Day was his defeat in the Breeders' Cup Sprint last fall when he stopped unexpectantly and was beaten by Aloha West who was in today's field.  Still, Jackie's Warrior looked not only like the lone speed but NO ONE could run the opening quarter as fast as he could.  So I figured he would not only be loose on the lead but in a slower pace than he needed, giving him plenty for the stretch run.  Oh I was SO RIGHT!  Right to the front in a pokey :23 and change.  "He's long gone" I told the boys and he drew off in an awesome display of speed and class.  Jeff made us Mint Juleps and I broke out the souvenir Derby glasses as we toasted our success!

Led into the stretch at 71 in my "UPSET Special" on the turf before fading the fifth and then the Derby winner was at 80/1 in an complete shocker - made for great stories.  Passed the thirteenth but in the finale, another maiden event Brad and I had the winner to cap off a five win afternoon! 

For the weekend I had won at over 40% and cleared almost $100 profit.  Brad also won, netting a profit of just over $60 and Jeff finished in the black as well.  Just a GREAT weekend!

Derby Week Highlights

Derby Fashion

Social Media

My first day back gal-pal anchor Lauren Pastrana dazzled on the air in a greet outfit.

Our adorable manager/videographer/drone flyer from Oasis had her prom so I reached out to Madi.

Gal-pal, weekend news-anchor Karli Barnett posted she was hosting a high school students' awards for future broadcasters and I reached out to her.

And on Derby Day I watched some of the races on the "America's Day At The Races" where I reached out to "my girl" Acacia Courtney-Clement

Opening Night at Churchill Downs

 April 29-30

Saturday night was Opening Night at Churchill Downs under the lights, "Downs After Dark."  And as I continued my quest to reach WIN #10,000 I was visiting in Ohio for the week.  I arrived in Columbus on Wednesday evening and after hitting Win #9,993 last weekend I decided I really did NOT want to hit the magic figure while away from home where I could pose for a photo op in front of the big screen.  So my plan was to only play the Opening Night card at Churchill Downs on Saturday.  But on Thursday I saw where one of my favorite older turf fillies, War Like Goddess was the favorite for Friday's Closing Day feature at Keeneland, the Grade 3 Bewitch Stakes going a mile and a half.  Her record spoke for itself as she'd won all but one race last season and that was a just-miss third in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf.  Might be a bit of an issue to return off the layoff in her 4yo seasonal debut going a mile and a half here, but she towered over the field with even her "B" race.  She sat closer to the front in third through a moderate pace and with only a field of five.  Made the decisive move on the turn, split horses and drew off as MUCH the best - chalk up another "W" for Mr. Mark!

Win #9,993

On Saturday morning I visited our friends MP & Tom in Cincinnati and I asked them if they minded if I had the Opening Night races on my computer running during/after dinner as I was approaching the milestone win mark.  MP asked "What do you get for winning that many races?"  I smiled, extended my arms and said, "Whoooo hooo, I've won 10,000 races" and we all chuckled.  On the ten race card I only had five selections.  In the opener I was the short-priced 4/5 favorite.  Right to the front and clear into the lane, then stopped like he was shot to finish sixth and last.  Hmmmm.  Passed the second.  In the third I liked Frills in what looked a virtual rematch of race from opening week at Keeneland between her and Delta Gamma Cats who'd bet that day.  The latter went off as the even money favorite and my pick was 8/5 at post time.  The 9/2 third choice set the pace to the top of the lane where Frills took dead aim on her and collared her at the 16th pole and edged clear to score.  The nearly $27 put me into the black for the early part of the evening.

Win #9,994

I ran an even fifth in the next race then passed the 5th, 6th and 7th before we came to a turf sprint.  The probable favorite looked much the best IF you were willing to overlook her last against several of these same rivals.  Bay Storm went off as the 4/5 favorite, tracked the leader into the lane and seemed to be poised to go by when 10/1 longshot blew by to win the race, I finished second.  BUT I'd opted in on a Twin Spires promotion which was good for the ENTIRE week - if your WIN bet runner finishes second or third you get your bet back, up to $20.  So I "WON" the bet :)  WHOOOO HOOOOO!

The featured Roxelana Stakes was a six furlong sprint and my BET of the Night was unbeaten Caribbean Caper.  But Saturday morning when I went to make my bets before driving to Cincy I saw that she had scratched out.  Hmmmm.  I re-read my analysis and was reminded that Horse-for-the-Course Bayerness was a legitimate contender even with the unbeaten favorite in the line-up.  So I scaled down the play and made her the pick.  I was trying to stay up until the 10:30 post time but right after the eighth there was a weather delay.  This went on for over fifteen minutes so I went to bed.  In the morning I watched the replay and the field that went to post was a very short three in number.  Bayerness tracked the "longshot" into the turn, drew alongside and then ran off to score handily!

Win #9,995

With the money-back promotion I finished 2-for-5, a solid 40%, and profited ten dollars!  Now I'm set to hit the 10,000 plateau on either Oaks or Derby Day!

My Social Butterfly Week....

When I arrived in Ohio, the first big social event was to go to my niece Khloe's track meet.  She is a star thrower in the discus and hammer for Ohio Wesleyan University.  In the discus I believe that most people thought she would win - who knew what was going on.  But it was exciting none-the-less as she hit a new personal best in her winning throw which was also the best throw in the collegiate conference her university is part of.  Then in the hammer, she's good but it's only her second year doing it.  And there is the girl who's the best in the conference that she's never beaten.  On her second throw Khloe hit a new personal best and was just 15 CENTIMETERS from the lead.  In her third and final throw she set another new personal best and bested the reigning leader to win the hammer throw as well.  GO KHLOE!

Saturday I drove to Cincinnati to visit our great friends Tom & Mary Pat who we met on our Portugal Viking River cruise.  I've visited them four times now and we went to Gatlinburg with them, sailed the Puget Sound with them, and will go on a Viking Great Lakes Expedition in July.  I got there around 11 am on Saturday and spent the night.  A great time, especially on Saturday when we visited a winery and walked around the shops of Lawrenceburg on the Ohio River.

Last week my gal-pal anchor on CBS-4 Lauren Pastrana returned from a week's vacation and when I welcomed her back she responded to me while on the air.

Saturday night my other gal-pal weekend anchor Karli Barnett hosted another of her live chats and I joined in briefly.  Got a very cheery hello to my greeting and asked how I was doing :)

With our Florida Panthers about to host the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, hottie sideline host Katie Gaus posted an "Are You Ready" photo that was hot in many ways.  She liked my comment.

And finally, after getting to see cutie Kelly Colwell at my older son's Jeff's house last weekend, Sunday was her birthday.  So I sent her a message thanking her for "saving me" when I was "injured" on the sideline when we were both part of the Oasis Football staff.

Apple Blossom Weekend

 April 22 - 23

If you thought last weekend was an abbreviated weekend of racing, this one was even more so.  And it was made that way because I only played the Friday card at Keeneland and then very limited selections for Saturday, which was Apple Blossom Day at Oaklawn, because Kim and I would be in Cape Coral for our eldest grandson's first communion ceremony.  Here's how the abbreviated racing weekend played out.......I'd looked at the entries for the early part of the week and it did not look like there was anything really of interest to me.  But then I read online that the Friday feature at Keeneland was the Grade 3 Doubledogdare and in the entries was 3yo champion filly, Malathaat.  She'd won the Grade 1 Ashland here at Keeneland for me last spring and then won the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks and the Grade 1 Alabama for me last spring and summer.  I didn't think she needed her absolute best to win here so I decided to handicap the Friday card.  I ran third with my first bet but I got my first win of the week in the fourth, a starter allowance going a mile and a sixteenth to the first finish line.  Jump Into The Fire qualified for this $10K starter based on his maiden win three back at Churchill for that price tag.  I was hopeful that handicappers would somewhat overlook him as he exited two races at "minor league" Mahoning Valley.  But the crowd was too sharp and sent him off as the 7/5 favorite.  Right to the front and never was threatened, drawing off by daylight.

WIN #9,987

Passed the fifth then had a triple investment in the sixth, an entry level allowance for 3yo going seven furlongs.  I thought there was a lot to like about Jonathan Thomas' filly, Mouffy.  She'd made her debut on the Gulfstream Tapeta surface and had scored impressively with a big 81 Beyer figure.  In her second, and most recent start she'd run in an allowance on the "real dirt."  That day she faced a winner who was scoring for the third time, the second time under allowance conditions, and who would run next time out in a Tampa stakes.  That Mouffy was running in just her second career start, while switching surfaces, AND winners for the first time - then was 2nd beaten a head while almost half a dozen clear of the field made her very appealing.  The second out improved Beyer of 85 sealed the deal.  The crowd thought the same and sent her off at 3/5.  She was handled patiently, saving all the ground into the far turn while a close fifth.  Rather than swinging wide the rider waited and sure enough the rail opened up - big enough to drive a Mack truck through!  She shot through and ran away to score handily.

WIN #9,988

Passed the next two before it was time for the big one.  Anyone who did NOT want to wager on Malathaat at a short price would not get any kind of argument from me as she was coming off of a layoff and obviously had bigger targets in mind through the season leading up to the Breeders' Cup.  But with that said, I WOULD have issue with anyone who tried to convince me that they had a lot of confidence in BETTING AGAINST her.  She'd been out eight times and won six with a second and a third.  That show finish came facing older, at Del Mar in the Gr 1 BC Distaff.  And she'd only lost by 3/4 of a length.  Anything close to her "B" game would be good enough I thought - and it was an added plus she'd won the Ashland here last year - and off a layoff - at this same distance.  Two longshots sped off to open up a big lead while John Velazquez sat chilly on the favorite in fourth to the far turn.  Began eating up ground through the turn and collared the front runner at the top of the lane.  She had to be driven out but she was clear by daylight and should move forward off the race.  Malathaat was the BEST Bet of the Weekend for me and while I didn't make money, I was rewarded for my confidence in her as a top notch WIN bet.

WIN #9,989

Saturday we were leaving in the morning for the west coast of Florida.  Not sure how the day would play out I made all my bets before we left for the drive across the state.  The day got off to a good start as Writeitontheice won at Laurel paying $7.60, so I cashed for $19.00 on my minimum bet.  

WIN #9,990

Ran fifth and second twice before I took the Grade 1 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn.  I've never been a fan of Latruska, well not so much not a fan, just I don't believe she's nearly as good as everyone thinks.  But she seems to ALWAYS find herself in a graded stakes where the field is suspect at best and/or she is loose on the lead.  A short field of five was all the racing secretary's office could come up to contest this $1 Million feature.  Perhaps it was due to the new schedule at Oaklawn.  In years past Oaklawn opened at the end of January and the racing season ended the week following the Santa Anita Derby/Wood Memorial/Bluegrass Stakes weekend with the Gr 1 Apple Blossom on Friday and the Gr 1 Arkansas Derby on Saturday, closing day.  This year Oaklawn opened in early December and will be running through the first of May.  The Arkansas Derby came on Florida Derby Day and today's placing of the Apple Blossom put it just two weeks away from the Kentucky Oaks & Derby weekend cards which have plenty of big money races.  Regardless, Latruska AGAIN found herself the lone front runner.  I just could not go more than a double investment because there were two other quality graded stakes runners that I thought COULD beat her.  But as is almost always the case, lone speed rules the racing world and she went wire to wire.

WIN #9,991

So I was off to a 2-for-5 start and in the black.  But I had four seconds, two thirds, and a fourth over the span of the next eleven races with only a single winner - Eastside Cool in a second level allowance at Oaklawn.

WIN #9,992

Next week I'll be in Ohio and unless I find some spot plays I'll be passing on the week's races and looking to get wins #9,994-10,000 over Derby weekend!  And oh yes, we were oh-so-proud of our grandson Cameron at his first communion!  Truly he IS "Cam the Man!!!"

Social Media This Week....

First, on Wednesday my former student and current Delta Airline Attendant Michelle posted a photo remarking about it being a good day to fly and her red lipstick.  It marked the first day that flights were going to go without a mask mandate so I remarked it was a good thing so people could see her pretty smile, which resulted in several smiles of appreciation.

Second, the Thursday night CBS-4 news featured my gal-pal Karli Barnett on the anchor desk and as per usual we exchanged messages WHILE she was on the air :)  Never gets old for me!

And finally, Saturday at our son's house one of my favorite peeps from the Oasis football experience came to join the celebration, "Coach Kelly."  Just out of college when Kelly joined the Oasis staff she quickly became a favorite of all the coaches.  So sweet, so cute and very personable.  Was great to see her again!