Arlington Million Weekend

 August 9 - 11

Oh how I miss racing at Arlington Park....but it is what it is.  The racing weekend started at Monmouth on Friday and then after I originally thought Saturday would be a big day of graded stakes on the turf Saturday, they got moved to Sunday due to the after effects of Hurricane Debby.  Here's how the weekend played out.....On Friday, playing just the Jersey Shore races I had five selections from the eight races.  I ran third at even money with the first bet but then scored back-to-back victories.  In Race 3, a MSW for older going two turns on the grass, it looked to me like Giant James would be the top choice regardless of the surface.  And sure enough all the rain earlier forced the races to the main track today.  'James took a lot of early money so I upped the wager to a triple investment.  He tracked the leaders into the turn, then got shuffled back.  That can't be good, and he appeared to be spinning his wheels.  Suddenly top rider Paco Lopez got him into high gear, dove to the rail and rallied through the final 16th to pull clear at an "inflated" 6/5 price enabling me to cash for over $30.

Came right back in the next bet with Natural Star.  The race was a $7.5K "beaten" sprint on the main track.  'Star had won for fun when dropped out of a $16K spot to this level.  Claimed that day he was again moved up to the $16K level on the turf last time without results.  Now the identical pattern just looked way too obvious.  Tracked the longshots into the turn, took over willingly and was long gone.  Was off the board in the final two bets, but I'll take a 40% winning day any time.

Saturday turned out to be a good day in spite of the fact that I had to do some late minute handicapping juggling as the Colonial card - which I'd completed handicapping on Wednesday - was moved in it's entirety to Sunday.  And the Saratoga card I was going to play was an all off-the-turf event with the big races moved to Sunday.  So I handicapped - as usual - Monmouth, and added in Gulfstream.  It was also "Made In Minnesota Night" at Canterbury so I handicapped their twilight card and finally had some picks from Del Mar.  I missed with the first two selections, both minimum plays before the horses were into the gate for Race 3 at Monmouth.  It was a MSW six furlong sprint and I really liked See The Truth who was exiting a nose loss at this level and distance.  Even more impressive was that this effort had come off of a nearly one-year layoff!  The race played out in a nearly identical fashion to the first win of the week.....dueled three wide into the turn, fell back, dove to the inside, re-rallied and cleared off late.  It was a great ride by Paco Lopez and at even money I cashed for over $30 to suddenly be in the black for the day.

I missed at 3/5 at Monmouth in Race 4 before scoring with Mr. Georgie in Race 5.  Paco, of course, on a lightly raced maiden who'd been out twice for a $40K tag and twice for a $20K tag - all on the tougher NYRA circuit.  Today down to $10K on the Jersey Shore.  Was near the back early, YIKES, then began rolling five wide around the turn and into the lane with all the maiden.  By the 1/8th pole he was home free and won wrapped up.

Back-to-back races at Gulfstream followed.  In the fifth I was fourth as the 3/2 favorite before scoring in the featured Sharp Susan Stakes for 2yo fillies.  Win N Your In looked an oh-so-obvious favorite for several reasons.  First, three of the seven fillies competing for stakes honors were still maidens.  Then the last out Beyer earned by 'Win was a huge 79 figure.  While juveniles can suddenly improve it would be hard to bet on any of the others improving their last out Beyer by nearly a dozen points.  The second choice at 2/1 led the favorite into the far turn before she blew by and ran away earning Announcer Pete's patented, "....EEEEEAAAAASSSSSY money...." call.  I thought the $3 payoff was generous considering the big edge she held over her rivals.

Less than fifteen minutes later Festinate was a handy winner in a Monmouth $7.5K "beaten" sprint.  Two back he ran away at this level by nearly a pole.  Claimed away he was moved up into a $20K optional allowance race.  Outrun he was dropped back down again to this level again.  In retrospect I probably should have upped the wager but because it was such a cheap event I was reluctant to go in for more than the minimum.  Was third into the turn before taking full flight to the wire as easily best.

About fifteen minutes later it was a MSW for 2yo at Gulfstream and Saffie Joseph sent out Neoequos for the second time.  In his debut three weeks ago he was bumped right out of the gate and lost the rider so in my mind this was a "do over" of a debut with the important experience under his belt.  Blinkers on today could help I thought.  I had mistakenly listed him as the #8 on my selection sheet and the #8 was taking all the early money.  But as they walked up to the gate I caught my mistake and quickly cancelled the bet on the 8 and put it on Neoequos who was the #9.  Tracked the 4/5 favorite to the turn, collared the leader turning for home and surged to the front in the final 16th.  Cashed for over $30 on my fifth winner of the day.

Back to back 3rd place finishes before getting the next winner, this one at Del Mar.  Trainer John Sadler was sending For All Mankind out off of a SIXTEEN MONTH LAYOFF - oh my.  Not only that, but he was trying dirt for the first time!  But he'd won off long layoffs previously and his works were sharp on the main track.  Burst out of the gate and was quickly clear by daylight.  Never threatened and long gone at even money with my double investment on board.  

In the Grade 3 Sorrento for 2yo fillies at Del Mar all five had won last out in wire-to-wire fashion to break their maiden.  Bob Baffert's Nooni was the "obvious" choice for me, and I thought she'd relax off the pace.  But jockey Juan Hernandez quickly broke on top and dueled for about 200 yards.  Disposed of that one and it was all over.

I missed at Canterbury in the first of their stakes when Xtreme Diva was only 2nd best as the prohibitive 1/9 favorite!  But I came right back to win the Minnesota Derby when Street Warrior dominated his fellow 3yo colts.

Next up was the feature in So Cal with the BET of the Weekend in the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon at Del Mar.  Anisette boasted a 7/5-2-0 lifetime resume including TWO Gr 1 wins and was a perfect 2-for-2 at Del Mar.  Jockey Umberto Rispolli tracked the leaders in third through the far turn, then instead of swinging wide into the stretch and losing valuable ground he patiently waited.  A seam opened and Ansinette shot through and drew off without taking a deep breath.  

Closed out the day with my tenth winner - from nineteen selections - in the 6th at Canterbury.  Found Jordan was racing for a first time tag, but he'd taken ELEVEN tries to break his maiden.  Enough of an edge to bet the minimum.  Caught the leader in mid-stretch, dueled and edged clear in the final strides.  WHOOOO HOOOO - a great way to end the day.

Sunday:  Arlington Million Day

The day started off oddly as Colonial Downs was nearly 40 minutes late getting their signal up and running causing my selection sheet needing to be modified by post times.  For the day I only had five wins, but they were all in stakes action.  Ironically two of the five were races where I bet because I knew the horse and he was a short-priced ML favorite AND I did not handicap the race!

Social Media this week.....

Nearly all my social media interactions this week were with my CBS girls, but I did get a reaction from gal-pal Chloe after she posted about her cute dog Millie.....

I had posed the question to Teri Hornstein recently if she wanted to follow along on our previews and trips and she seemed enthusiastic about that so I began sending them to her personally via Instagram.  Her reaction to our Belfast food tour was cool and she has "liked" every one since then, almost always responding within the hour, even when she's working the morning shift.

Long time pal Lauren Pastrana has been regularly "liking" the posts as well about the trip.....

But the nearly-every-day "conversations with Lauren continued this week.  First when I watched her via the live stream from my Mom's house and she did a story about metal detectors in the high schools locally we exchanged comments.  The day I landed back in Fort Lauderdale, I literally walked in the door and turned on the news and there she was doing a remote story about a fund raiser.  I reached out to Lauren and she replied about how happy she looked.  When Lauren posted some pics from her recent family trip to Hawaii I sent her a message that I would like to follow her trip and she wrote back that she and her husband were debating between Alaska & Greece.  Been to both - both amazing, and I told her so.  And finally she "liked" my comment about her being a "baseball Mom."

Birthday Weekend

 August 1 - 4

As I told my wife Kim the day after my birthday, if you'd listed the 300 some Facebook friends and asked me who would I want and/or expect to wish me a happy birthday, I think the list of almost 75 greetings would have hit them all, or nearly so.  It was a good day.  And the racing went well this weekend as well as I played the races Friday-Saturday-and-Sunday.  The weekend's racing started on Friday where I'd handicapped the Monmouth and Saratoga cards.  I added Saratoga after I saw they were running a couple of graded stakes races.  I got online a little after noon to make the bets for the day because I was headed to the airport for a flight to Ohio with my family and I was surprised to see that Monmouth had cancelled all racing because of the heat.  That left me with just four plays on the day, all from the Spa.  Watching the replays later I saw Tricky Temper run in the fourth.  This was a state-bred, 2nd level allowance.  She was going third off the shelf and exiting a much tougher OPEN entry level allowance.  She'd cleared the first state-bred level by winning a restricted stakes.  Pressed the 5/2 second choice into the stretch, dueled to the furlong pole and drew clear late for the first win of the week.

I didn't have another bet until the 8th which was the Grade 2 Saratoga Oaks going nine and half furlongs on the turf for 3yo fillies.  Cinderella's Dream had suffered her first career loss in Dubai two back when the saddle slipped.  Came to North America and won the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks by daylight.  Looked to be a very similar field today and I couldn't find any logical reason for her not to win, even with some regression.  I was a bit concerned when heading into the final turn she was still at the rear of the field, but did note that the rider was very confident.  Asked for run and she immediately inched up to mid-pack.  Swung wide into the stretch to get clear run and took off under a hand ride to score impressively.

Cinderella's Dream had been the "best" of the day and I thought that would be the highlight of the day.  But in the Grade 2 Hall of Fame I got a big surprise.  Again, my pick, Neat, sat at the back of the field.  And because he was not in the top four and I was watching on replay I had no idea what the final odds had been.  On the early morning line he was the tepid 5/2 choice based on his two Gr 3 wins.  But his figures were NOT the best in the field.  I went with the adage, "class on grass."  He inched up to mid-pack on the turn, swung at least six-wide into the stretch and launched a furious rally.  Looked like he was too late, but in the final 200 yards he found another gear, accelerated and was JUST up in time.  I was excited for the win, but then checked the payouts.....he'd left the gate at a big 7/2 price and the $9 payout meant I'd cash for $45 - the "Day Maker" of this Friday!  In the finale, Geopolitics ran 2nd - again - as the 4/5 favorite after controlling the race from the opening bell to mid-stretch.  But the day's totals read 3-for-4 with a healthy profit!  WHOOOO HOOOOO.

Saturday I was able to watch most of the races during the first half of the day on my Mom's TV with the "America's Day at the Races" broadcast on the Fox networks.  I was playing Monmouth and Saratoga in the afternoon and then the late races at Del Mar.  Apparently there'd been a lot of rain overnight in upstate New York and they ended up not only taking the races off the turf, but the two big stakes races on the inner turf course were completely cancelled and moved to next weekend.  After failing to hit the board in the first two races my pick in the third, a starter-optional claimer going the unique 1 1/2 turn mile distance, I looked at the remaining runners.  Deck of Cards had won five in a row and was the apparent lone speed of the race.  Added her to the list AND upped the bet.  Right to the front and was never threatened.  A wise choice my friend!  The second at Monmouth was a 2yo maiden event and I'd landed on Ellinger strictly by the connections.  The $200K colt was working for NY-based trainer George Weaver at Saratoga, but he shipped here and got top rider Paco Lopez to ride.  In the early wagering he was the short priced favorite so I upped the bet.  At post time he went off at a "fair" 8/5 price.  Right to the front and held them all off to the wire.  Back-to-back wins, horray for me!

Missed on the next two bets - both 2yo maiden races - before it was time for the Jersey Shore feature, the Tyro Stakes going five furlongs on the turf for juveniles.  Governor Sam had made his debut for trainer George Weaver - yes, the same trainer who sent out Ellinger earlier on the card - in a Gulfstream stakes event.  Dueled through insanely fast fractions (:21.1 and :43.4) before giving way.  Made his second start at Saratoga where only the best of 2yo's run and he'd scored by daylight as the prohibitive 3/5 favorite.  While these were all lightly raced, one-win 2yo's, that seemed to give him a big edge.  He tracked the leaders while being handled VERY confidently.  Swung into the clear collared the leaders and battled to the wire.  Seemed TO ME that Paco was ultra-confident as he continued to hand ride him in spite of it being a one head up, one head down battle to the shadow of the wire.  But in the end he edged clear by about a head.  But hey....a win is a WIN.

The sixth at Saratoga was the fourth 2yo maiden event of the day and for the fourth time my bet on a Todd Pletcher juvenile did not pan out.  The 7th was scheduled to be the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby on the turf, but it was cancelled, so we moved on to Race 8, the Grade 1 Test for 3yo fillies.  All of the fillies in the line-up looked talented, but the one that I believed had the most promise was Chad Brown's Ways and Means.  She'd yet to win a stakes event but had been 2nd in the Gr 2 GP Oaks and 4th in the Gr 1 Kentucky Oaks.  She'd run here over the Belmont Festival weekend in an allowance event and she was simply dazzling, earning a massive 104 Beyer.  Could she do that against top competition?  Pressed the leader into the turn, and then took off in full flight for the wire turning for home.  Drew off in a scintillating performance that was a clear indication she'd run to her natural ability today.

The restricted Lure Stakes was scheduled to be run at a mile & a sixteenth on the grass, but it was kept on the card as an off-the-turf, one mile event.  The $100K listed stakes was reduced to a short field of turf runners and the "Main Track Only" entry, Film Star.  I thought she held enough of an edge to add her onto the selection sheet, so I bet the minimum.  Well played Mr. Mark!  Pressed the leader to the turn and then ran off by daylight.

It was right around this time that we all headed out to dinner where we met my brother and his oldest son.  Eric (my nephew) had just welcomed in a baby boy to the house with his finance Joyclyn and they were coming as well.  The baby was adorable and we had a great meal together.  On the ride home I wanted to see how MY HORSE, 2yo filly Seismic Beauty had run for trainer Bob Baffert.  She tracked the leaders professionally through the first five and a half furlongs, took the lead turning for home and was JUST caught in the shadow of the wire by a filly who was the favorite and had experience, in fact was exiting a KEY race.  It was a solid effort and we should move forward in the next start.  When I watched the replays after we got home, this race was the third in a sequence of four straight Del Mar races where I ran second or third.  That's significant because TODAY TwinSpires was offering another "Money Back" promotion if you ran 2nd or third, so I "cashed" on all four of the events.

The final bet of the day was the "BET of the Day" and the weekend in the featured Grade 1 Clement Hirsch.  Post time of 9:35 pm EST saw champion and multiple graded stakes winner Adare Manor heading to the post as the prohibitive favorite for trainer Bob Baffert.  She was 1/9 until about five minutes out then crept up to 1/5 which I thought was more than fair.  The bettors were apparently made up in large part by a lot of "value players" who poured money in on the lightly raced Bill Mott filly, Scylla.  I'd seen her run, and had cashed on her, but she was no Adare Manor.  I was surprised as the gates sprung open that Adare Manor sat off the pace, and when Scylla opened up the lead turning for home I did have a moment of concern.  But then 'Manor seemed to say, "enough of this" and just blew by under a hand ride.  How the crowd let her go off at a very generous 3=5 price I'll never know but I gladly accepted their ill-advised bets and collected eighty big ones on my $50 wager.  For the day I won with 6-of-20 bets, but "cashed" on ten of twenty.

Sunday I limited my play to Monmouth, but I saw in racing headlines that the amazing marathon runner, Next was the prohibitive favorite in the Birdstone Stakes at Saratoga, so I added him as a "statistic pad" pick.  He'd won seven of his last eight starts including six in a row, all in races longer than nine furlongs on the main track.  It was scheduled to be a short field of five, but one scratched out before the racing began.  As they turned into the home stretch the first time, another was pulled up.  Not that it would have made a difference as his winning margins have averaged a dozen lengths and change!  He tracked the 5/2 front runner into the far turn and easily took command.  The closer rallied furiously and very briefly it looked like it might be a race.  But jockey Ramon Vasquez shook the reins and Next took off, lengthening the final margin to well over a dozen while never being asked for his best.  While I only collected a $0.75 profit, it was another WIN for the weekend.  I won back-to-back races at Monmouth with my first two selections as In The End edged clear lane in a 2-lifetime turf sprint in Race 3.  And then right back in Race 4 when 2yo Nostalgia's Smile cleared off late in a maiden claiming sprint of five and a half furlongs.

I was off the board at 3/1 in Race 5 before waiting for Race 9 and my final bet of the day.  It was the Sunday "feature," an entry level turf sprint and it looked to me like Independenceavenue would be an obvious, short-priced winner.  She had won her first two career starts, both turf sprints before trying a couple of route races without success.  She dueled over six furlongs in the Grade 3 Soaring Softly in New York before missing by just a length then was 2nd beaten a neck here in a race like this one.  Had "paired" Beyers that were the top figures on the page.  An easy filly to like.  Sent off as the favorite she pressed the 15/1 front runner to the turn, shot to an open length lead into the lane and drew off as a clear winner completing a very successful 4-for-5 Sunday at the races.

For the 3-day weekend my totals were:

29 / 13 - 5 - 6     44% WINS     $2.24 ROI

AND with the "Money Back" promotion as well as the "15% Bonus" promotion my bottom line showed a profit of over $40 for the three days of handicapping.  It was an excellent "Birthday Weekend!"

Social Media this week

I made this collage to reflect back on all the wonderful experiences I / we've had over the last 365 days.  Truly a great year full of amazing adventures.  Looking forward to another year full of good times!

Kimmy was the first of "my girls to wish me a Happy Birthday, and I'll admit that I reached out to her with the photo from Jaxson's because I know from the past she just is so busy and/or doesn't remember to reach out.  And in those times when she's remembered too late she always feels bad so I don't mind initiating the conversation with the ice cream pic.  We had a nice conversation as well about the trip.

The best part about Chloe's birthday wishes was that she reached out to me personally via text and initiated the conversation and then we continued talking for several minutes.  Just so very sweet.

Sunday evening while at my Mom's my gal-pal Karli hosted another Facebook LIVE chat.  I was able to chime in several times and she and I exchanged several comments.  The best ones were when she talked about my travels to everyone.  Was pretty clear (at least to me) that she and I know each other much better than the other names who popped on with a quick comment :)

Lauren Pastrana was back from her amazing Hawaiian vacation on Monday and I reached out to welcome her back, and she promptly replied on both Twitter and Instagram.  The next night Lauren was solo on the anchor desk for the 7pm segment, and having just watched Nora O'Donnell anchoring the national news I thought how good Lauren would be at that job.  Told her so and she promptly replied what a dream that would be.  As I began the new set of previews for the upcoming British Isles Lauren replied back when I sent it to her Instagram page.  And she commented as to her confidence that I'd do well on the Viking TV spot.  And then she sent me birthday wishes :)  On Wednesday Lauren wore a pretty pink outfit.  And when I tuned in Thursday she appeared to be wearing the same thing.  That can't be I thought, so I opened the DVR and noted they were similar but not exact.  I put the two pics together and sent them to her and she immediately responded (while on air!) that they were very similar and by the same designer/maker!  Sunday morning Lauren posted pics from her Hawaii trip and I messaged her how much fun it looked like her kids were having and that her smile showed she too was having a great time.  She liked both that message and the preview for the Br Isles, then return a message saying how much fun they DID have and what made me smile was when she said she was excited for our next adventure :)

My new-found frequent gal-pal Teri posted how hot it was, and I replied that's why we travel in the summer.  She replied to take her with us (OH Doctor!).  I said she could stowaway - which trip would she prefer, and she said BOTH :)  I had asked her earlier if she wanted me to reach out with pics and previews from our trips and she'd said "Yes" so I sent her the first preview and she enjoyed it.  She was very appreciative when I posted a pic of her on the weekend anchor desk as I watched from Ohio on both Saturday and Sunday.  And she reacted with a "WOW so cool" reply shortly after I sent her the second preview pic.

Happy Birthday To ME

I'm so fortunate to have so many friends, and as a "regular guy" I have to say that I'm very fortunate that I have a large number of very attractive women who are my gal-pals.  I'll take my wife any day over all of them, but this group are all certainly well worth labeling "eye candy" in my book!