April 2 - 5
The Spring/Summer Meet Begins
Welcome to the 2020 version of spring thoroughbred racing in a world of very strange times indeed. I hope at some point when you - or I - read this in the future we'll be able to say, "Yeah, that was really something but we all came out of it ok." This would, under normal circumstances been Opening Week of the Spring Keeneland Meet and Saturday would have been a HUGE day on the trail to the Kentucky Derby with major preps - and undercard stakes - at Santa Anita (the Santa Anita Derby and Oaks), at Aqueduct (the Wood Memorial and Gazelle Stakes), and at Keeneland (the Bluegrass and Ashland Stakes). But instead there are only a handful of tracks running, none of those mentioned above included in them. And at this point on the racing calendar nearly all the "big name" trainers, jockeys, and horses would have left So Florida. But as we're one of the few venues still conducting live racing, the spring season has become a hybrid of Gulfstream Spring & Keeneland Spring. As a racing fan in So Fla, that's a good thing for me. Finally, normally during this point in the racing season, after having been a daily handicapper since the beginning of December I would play sporadically during the week and focus most of my attention on weekend racing until we got to the first weekend in May when Monmouth opens and I handicap their daily cards - but that's only a three or four day racing week at most. But, with the covid-19 pandemic keeping us at home and knocking out all our travel plans and planning I decided I'd begin by handicapping daily at Gulfstream during their Thur - to - Sunday season. And so here's how the first week played out.
Pre-Racing Days
As the Gulfstream Winter/Championship Meet ended Kim and I headed to Orlando to help watch our grandson Oliver for a few days. One of the highlights was he wanted to watch the races with me and some of my videos. He's just so adorable and the best part was during the live race we watched he leaned in and said, "Is that you Grandpa?" Yes. "Go Grandpa, go faster!" he cheered :) While we were there and then on the Wednesday when we returned I went through all the various categories of my handicapping to try and see if my results revealed anything meaningful and/or useful for future handicapping....
The first thing I'll point out are the highlighted big figures. Prior to compiling these statistics if you'd ask me for some general thoughts on what I do well and what is challenging for me with handicapping I would have offered these thoughts...... (1) Turf sprints are THE most difficult kind of race for me; (2) the most difficult class of racing to decipher is an entry level allowance. (3) I probably do best with the better races - i.e. stakes & upper level allowance - and worse with maiden events, especially maiden claiming events. And finally, I think I do much better with turf racing than with dirt. Well, toss all those assumptions! Although I will make these remarks about the numbers that "disprove" my theories. The dirt vs. turf, can't explain that. Will be anxious to run more numbers. For turf sprints. I would say that probably since I believe those are more difficult I bet them only when I have a CLEAR advantage in my mind. Maiden claiming events, I would imagine if you went through and looked at an analysis of the winning maiden claiming picks, the vast majority of them were class dropping and probably a lot of those were MSW to MC for the first time. And finally, as for the high rate of success with the entry level allowance, I'd say that much like the turf sprints I am especially wary of those so I bet only when I have a strong advantage. Regardless of the reasons it was an interesting exercise :) On to racing for the first week.....
Thursday April 2
Well, the spring could not have started off any better. In the opener I again went to the "the rule in handicapping is there are NO rules" theory when supporting sixth time maiden Living Vicariously. My reasoning was that only three of his starts had been on the turf, and you could toss the one in MSW company. He'd twice run for this same $50K tag and he'd been a stalking third two back, then set a blistering pace of :21 flat and :43.4 before being run down by the 8/5 favorite AND holding on for second. With the "Minister of Speed," Emisael Jaramillo in the irons and an inside draw I thought he'd be LONG gone on the front end. Right to the front and though the fractions may seem very similar (:21.3 and :44..0) the difference in lengths was enormous - three lengths slower in the opening quarter and a full length slower at the half mile mark. So it was no surprise he was the winner, to me at least. What was a surprise was that he paid a big $7.60 and that basically paid for the fact that I didn't cash any more tickets in the other four races.
Friday April 3 - THE DAY of the Pick 3
I can't honestly remember when I've had as big of a day, certainly not in the last year or so. As I said to Kim at the end of the racing day (and several times there after!), one of the many great things about this game is that you never know. As I said in an example, when you go to Walt Disney World and get on the Haunted Mansion attraction you "know" you are going to have a good time and have a good idea of what is about to happen. You begin a day at the races and you just don't know what stories are about to unfold. When I handicapped the card on Thursday morning, as I went through the card I had the feeling that this was a very strong card, very "Keeneland like," and I felt pretty confident about my picks as I made them. So much so that I decided to play some multi-race wagers, which is something I next to never do. I passed the opener and then ran seventh at 5/1 in the second. In the third race I liked Not Now Rand. His two back race at six furlongs saw him set the pace and was in front after 5 1/2 furlongs - today's distance - only to be caught late and finish a best-of-the-rest second. AND that was against $25K rivals. Today he was in for half that price. Toss the last when bobbled at the start. The only reservation I had was that today was his eighth career start. Still, to me he looked to have a real pace advantage and on the class drop, so I doubled the bet. And after I'd looked at the next two races I thought he was a worthy single for a small Pick-3 bet. Up until about three minutes to post time Not Now Rand was the short-priced favorite but the closer they got to going in the gate, the more the betting evened out and he left as a tepid 2/1 favorite. Surprisingly to me jockey Luis Saez had him a stalking position in fourth and then made his move into the clear as they turned for home. Opened up as much, MUCH the best.
Cashed for $30 on my first winner of the day and had the first leg of the P-3 in the bank. In the fourth, I used a combination of a tried and true handicapping angle to pick the winner and a negative angle to go against the most likely win candidate. Two runners were taking BIG drops in class and you had to decide if the barns were wanting to get rid of them or were finding the right level for them. In my mind Threshold was the latter for Mark Casse. A long time ago I'd read a paperback handicapping book about betting speed. And among the many angles it provided insight into was the "Early Speed, Class Drop" angle. And they said, the further the runner got beat the better because the key was the speed through the pace call at a higher class level was often a sign of an impending big effort. Such was the case with Threshold. He'd been close to the pace through six furlongs - the pace call in a two-turn turf event like this - for a $50K tag and then faded. Today he was in for half that price. And the negative angle was in regards to Starship Bubba. That one was first off the claim for Mike Maker and "everyone" just seems to think those are automatic winners. But for several months now the numbers show it's a 15% win angle. As they turned for home 'Bubba was the slight favorite and took the lead on the rail; Threshold tracked the leaders to the top of the lane, switched out about three wide, got his feet under him and hit another gear to catch the leader in the final 200 yards and then edge clear. The best news, (a) I'd also singled him in the P3 and (b) he left the gate at 5/1.
"Only" cashed for $25 but was alive with two options in the final leg of my bet, the fifth race which was also on the turf. I noted in my analysis that it's not uncommon for my top three picks to match those of the public handicappers but it is somewhat unusual that when I write up my analysis it's very nearly the same as one of them, in this case Mike Welsch of the DRF. My top choice was High Noon Rider who was a generous 6/1 in the program. He'd lost twice in a row to the red-hot Dalarna, who I'd had last time out, but I thought there were real reasons to think that today he'd turn the tables. Backing up in time, 'Rider had come off a try in a Gr 3 on the synthetic at Woodbine to run in a starter allowance like this and closed down the race from off the pace in spite of the pace being moderate at good odds of 3/1. Then two back, facing Dalarna in the Little Magician Stakes High Noon Rider had clipped heels on the back stretch and lost all chance. Then last time out he'd closed belatedly into a very slow pace for third. Today there looked to be much more speed and while Dalarna looked to be in the garden spot tracking them, he'd have to run much faster early and just might be vulnerable to the late kick of 'Rider. I also thought that the fact that the likely favorite was coming back on short rest, twenty days, AND had declining Beyers made him vulnerable. But just to be sure I played him along with my top choice in the Pick-3. Could not have played out more like I'd forseen it! As they spun out of the turn Dalarna made his move on the leaders who'd gone too fast to win and he took over. Meanwhile hot-riding Tyler Gaffalione had used a rail skimming ride to rally High Noon Rider into striking position and he swung into the clear with a full head of momentum. Even track announcer Pete Aiello was caught off guard as he called, "...High Noon Rider rallies to try and get into second, and oh, he's got his eye on getting the win!...." He blew right on by to score. I'd doubled the bet and his payoff of $11.20 triggered a $56 payoff on the straight win ticket and with a $1 Pick 3 I cashed for over $140. Oh I'm having a GREAT DAY!
But I wasn't done! Cleverly I'd not only hooked High Noon Rider (and Dalarna) into a Pick 3 as the anchor leg, but I also used them as a lead-in to the next Pick-3 sequence. And I used them as the first half of a Daily Double with Candy Machine in the sixth race, a Maiden Special going a mile and a sixteenth using the first finish line. There were two Todd Pletcher runners in here, and I'd had them both in their debut when they failed to score. But my pick was Chad Brown's Candy Machine. His debut had been a good effort against Pletcher's highly talented I'll Fight Dempsey. And he'd earned a Beyer of 78 for his third place finish, which equaled the par for this class level. None of the others had run that fast. Brown is an excellent 35% with second time starters AND an even better 37% with stretch out runners like this. AND he was the DRF Best Bet. The others would have to not only handle the two turns BUT also improve by double digit lengths to beat the likely favorite. Gaffalione was on board again and he was in command of the race through the turn when the third choice tried to race up inside him along the rail. Watching it live Announcer Pete called, "...Joe Bravo tried to thread the needle but Tyler just said NOPE...." but Bravo looked like he checked and steadied the horse. After Candy Machine crossed the wire there was an objection and INQUIRY. First, the camera angle could not capture an exact head-on view - front or back - at the exact moment of the "incident" but in watching it over and over it seemed clear to me that Gaffalione was about three off the rail before and after the incident and that the other horse seemed to want to get out as they came out of the turn and that was where the contact occurred. The stewards ruled no change to the order and I was through on the second leg of my second Pick 3 but more importantly had the double with the nice-priced High Noon Rider on top!
AND I had the triple investment win ticket on Candy Machine for nearly $30. What a day. But again, I was not done. I also liked Interest in the next race and the following race was my personal BEST of the Day so I had linked Candy Machine into a Daily Double with the next and played another Pick 3. I thought I had an excellent chance to win both races and cash both multi-race tickets. But I did think, what are the chances I can cash ALL these tickets today? This was a claiming event for sophomore fillies going a mile on the turf. Claiming events for 3yo at this time of the year are tricky I think but in here you could make a real case for Saffie Joseph's filly Interest. She'd won with a nice figure three back for $25K. Today she was in a $12.5K claimer - which I've found is about right when a runner wins a maiden claiming event, their next win is for about half that price against winners. In her first start for Joseph it got rained off and she was wide. Then last time out she stumbled badly at the start and lost all chance. Interest stalked the leaders, moved into the clear in the lane and was inching clear when a closer came with a rush.....PHOTO FINISH. As I watched the replay it's always difficult from the camera angle at Gulfstream and the fact that the finish line pole for the main track is situated at nearly the exact point where you would see who had their nose first on the wire on the turf. But from the pan angle that the race had been broadcast live I really thought I'd finished first.....and so it came up as Interest the winner. Not only did I cash the triple investment win bet, but I also had the Pick 3 AND the Daily Double....again!
WOW - and with the BEST BET coming up I felt pretty good I'd cash all of my tickets. My only concern was that already this week two Todd Pletcher runners who looked SO much better than their rivals had failed to score. And so it was with Off Topic in the eighth race, finishing an off-the-board fourth at 4/5. But what a day....hit nine of twelve bets including not one but two Daily Doubles and two Pick 3 plays. Kim fixed me a frozen mud slide to celebrate the day. Check out the video recap of this big day......
Saturday April 4
Well, hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney said it best in a tweet late Saturday afternoon....
I played both Gulfstream and Oaklawn today and while I knew I couldn't possibly replicate the amazing results of Friday I was surprised that I was shut out at Gulfstream and the only win I had at Oaklawn was when my pick scratched leaving me with the odds-on favorite who won for fun. I will say that I ran second and if half of those had won I'd have had an OK day. But so it goes.
Sunday April 5
I decided I'd had enough success with the multi-race wagers on Friday to risk a few more. I had more originally listed to play but decided I was stretching it. Paid for that when I would have had one late P3 but decided to save a couple dollars and narrowed my two-horse play in the third leg to just one, and of course the other won. But still, it was an excellent day of handicapping as I had FIVE winners on the day. After missing in the opener with a Saffie Joseph runner that looked CLEARLY best, ran seventh at even money, I had the winner in the second. Swirling Candy was facing nw2L turf sprinters after wiring a $25K maiden field two back and then dueling on the lead against winners last time out before dead-heating for third. With the outside draw I thought the hot-riding Tyler Gaffalione might stalk the pace to win here, but she broke sharply and went right to the front and scored wire-to-wire.
In the third, an open claiming sprint going 6 1/2 furlongs I thought we'd know before the opening quarter mile was over if Kiffle would be winning or not because she'd won four times in wire-to-wire fashion in sprints. Then coming off a November to late February break she was sent out in a two-turn mile turf event. Showed speed into the lane then weakened to fifth, but only beaten two lengths. It just seemed to me that this was the perfect foundation to take this group, on the big drop down to $10K, wire to wire if no one else showed speed. She did get pressure in the opening quarter mile but as they approached the far turn Tyler G hadn't moved a muscle and the others close to the front were vigorously asking their horses for run. Shook the reins turning for home and kissed the field a pleasant good bye by a widening seven plus lengths.
I was alive with a Pick 3 and a Daily Double heading into the 4th, an entry level allowance going five furlongs on the turf and Cryogenics looked formidable. Of the 139 combined speed figures of the rivals facing him only three would be competitive with his "paired" last two figures. One had been earned by a horse that was 0-for-16 at Gulfstream and had earned the number in 2017, and the other was earned by a horse that 1-for-17 and hadn't earned a number like that in two years. While neither the Double or the P3 would pay alot, still I'd have them. If only they didn't actually RUN the races I'd have had it. Cryogenics was steadied at the start and again at the 3/8th pole and finished strongly to be third. The winner had set the pace last time out against Cryogenics who ran by him to win by a widening two plus lengths. In the sixth I really thought Gotta Go Moe had an excellent chance to wire this MSW turf sprint in her sixth start. In her last three she'd draw out wide and had to battle on the lead while giving up ground. Today she had the rail and if she ran back to her previous she'd be LONG gone under Luis Saez. Indeed she was sharp out of the gate and was easily clear, opened up by daylight in the lane then wasn't asked for everything as she held off the field to score as the 4/5 favorite.
In the seventh it was a nw3L event going six furlongs. Typically in a 3-lifetime event I like a runner who's never been in such a conditioned event, but there weren't any of those. But I thought Sky Chaser looked solid in here. She'd been in stakes company and was a best-of-the-rest 2nd for $35K 3L behind Flat Awesome Jenny who had won three in a row until she hopped at the break and lost all chance in her most recent. Today Sky Chaser was dropping down to $20K. She was wide all the way under one of the low-percentage riders, but as they turned for home her better ability and class carried her to the front as she ground out the win and edged clear by a little more than a length.
We were heading into one of my most confident selections and Ron Nicoletti's BEST BET of the Day in the 8th. And I was alive in a P3 with Gotta Go Mo/Sky Chaser and in a Daily Double with the latter. Even though it wouldn't pay much with both of those horses going off at even money, it was two winning tickets I thought I "had." Voodoo Zip was the only one in the field who'd run better than the par figure for the race, ever, and she'd done it in her last. Trainer Danny Gargan won at a big 39% clip at the tough Championship Meet, and he had hot-riding Tyler Gaffalione in the irons - he'd won TEN races through the first three days of the spring and had two already today. Gaffalione had her sitting in third behind the front runner who while pressured somewhat was going easily up front. It's always easy to second guess but I thought he moved too late on Voodoo and she fell a neck shy of getting me the win, double, and P3 ticket. Sigh..... In the ninth I liked Proven Strategies from the Chad Brown barn but decided in her first try against winners I'd watch. Wire to wire at even money. Wow. The next race wasn't the "bet of the day" but in my mind was the "race of the day." On March fifth Up In Smoke was exiting a very impressive win in state-bred maiden special company to try state-bred entry level allowance foes with John Velazquez in the saddle. She pressed the pace through the opening quarter but didn't seem comfortable with the kick back of dirt and gradually began dropping back until she disappeared off the screen prompting Announcer Pete to say, "....the favorite is literally up in smoke...." But as the field swung into the lane there was a blur of a horse from the back who was swinging wide. Then at the 1/8th pole she was fifth and on the move. What the???? Blew by to win emphatically. The most unusual and impressive race I've seen in a long time. So how would she run today. Adding to the intrigue she was moving from state-bred to OPEN allowance foes here. She broke cleanly but dropped back quickly to trail almost ten off the leaders. But Luis Saez got her moving on the turn and was within a couple lengths and flying as they came into the stretch. Blew by just like last time and I had my fifth winner on the day.
One word about the investments for the week. Held my winning percentage that I'm usually at, but because of the multi-race wagers I turned what would have been a pretty good loss for the week into a nearly $100 profit for the first week of the meet. If I can win at my usual pace and payoffs I'll recoup a lot of the money I lost from that big Friday and that should carry me through several weeks. We'll be back at it on Thursday!
Pre-Racing Days
As the Gulfstream Winter/Championship Meet ended Kim and I headed to Orlando to help watch our grandson Oliver for a few days. One of the highlights was he wanted to watch the races with me and some of my videos. He's just so adorable and the best part was during the live race we watched he leaned in and said, "Is that you Grandpa?" Yes. "Go Grandpa, go faster!" he cheered :) While we were there and then on the Wednesday when we returned I went through all the various categories of my handicapping to try and see if my results revealed anything meaningful and/or useful for future handicapping....
Thursday April 2
Well, the spring could not have started off any better. In the opener I again went to the "the rule in handicapping is there are NO rules" theory when supporting sixth time maiden Living Vicariously. My reasoning was that only three of his starts had been on the turf, and you could toss the one in MSW company. He'd twice run for this same $50K tag and he'd been a stalking third two back, then set a blistering pace of :21 flat and :43.4 before being run down by the 8/5 favorite AND holding on for second. With the "Minister of Speed," Emisael Jaramillo in the irons and an inside draw I thought he'd be LONG gone on the front end. Right to the front and though the fractions may seem very similar (:21.3 and :44..0) the difference in lengths was enormous - three lengths slower in the opening quarter and a full length slower at the half mile mark. So it was no surprise he was the winner, to me at least. What was a surprise was that he paid a big $7.60 and that basically paid for the fact that I didn't cash any more tickets in the other four races.
Friday April 3 - THE DAY of the Pick 3
I can't honestly remember when I've had as big of a day, certainly not in the last year or so. As I said to Kim at the end of the racing day (and several times there after!), one of the many great things about this game is that you never know. As I said in an example, when you go to Walt Disney World and get on the Haunted Mansion attraction you "know" you are going to have a good time and have a good idea of what is about to happen. You begin a day at the races and you just don't know what stories are about to unfold. When I handicapped the card on Thursday morning, as I went through the card I had the feeling that this was a very strong card, very "Keeneland like," and I felt pretty confident about my picks as I made them. So much so that I decided to play some multi-race wagers, which is something I next to never do. I passed the opener and then ran seventh at 5/1 in the second. In the third race I liked Not Now Rand. His two back race at six furlongs saw him set the pace and was in front after 5 1/2 furlongs - today's distance - only to be caught late and finish a best-of-the-rest second. AND that was against $25K rivals. Today he was in for half that price. Toss the last when bobbled at the start. The only reservation I had was that today was his eighth career start. Still, to me he looked to have a real pace advantage and on the class drop, so I doubled the bet. And after I'd looked at the next two races I thought he was a worthy single for a small Pick-3 bet. Up until about three minutes to post time Not Now Rand was the short-priced favorite but the closer they got to going in the gate, the more the betting evened out and he left as a tepid 2/1 favorite. Surprisingly to me jockey Luis Saez had him a stalking position in fourth and then made his move into the clear as they turned for home. Opened up as much, MUCH the best.
Cashed for $30 on my first winner of the day and had the first leg of the P-3 in the bank. In the fourth, I used a combination of a tried and true handicapping angle to pick the winner and a negative angle to go against the most likely win candidate. Two runners were taking BIG drops in class and you had to decide if the barns were wanting to get rid of them or were finding the right level for them. In my mind Threshold was the latter for Mark Casse. A long time ago I'd read a paperback handicapping book about betting speed. And among the many angles it provided insight into was the "Early Speed, Class Drop" angle. And they said, the further the runner got beat the better because the key was the speed through the pace call at a higher class level was often a sign of an impending big effort. Such was the case with Threshold. He'd been close to the pace through six furlongs - the pace call in a two-turn turf event like this - for a $50K tag and then faded. Today he was in for half that price. And the negative angle was in regards to Starship Bubba. That one was first off the claim for Mike Maker and "everyone" just seems to think those are automatic winners. But for several months now the numbers show it's a 15% win angle. As they turned for home 'Bubba was the slight favorite and took the lead on the rail; Threshold tracked the leaders to the top of the lane, switched out about three wide, got his feet under him and hit another gear to catch the leader in the final 200 yards and then edge clear. The best news, (a) I'd also singled him in the P3 and (b) he left the gate at 5/1.
"Only" cashed for $25 but was alive with two options in the final leg of my bet, the fifth race which was also on the turf. I noted in my analysis that it's not uncommon for my top three picks to match those of the public handicappers but it is somewhat unusual that when I write up my analysis it's very nearly the same as one of them, in this case Mike Welsch of the DRF. My top choice was High Noon Rider who was a generous 6/1 in the program. He'd lost twice in a row to the red-hot Dalarna, who I'd had last time out, but I thought there were real reasons to think that today he'd turn the tables. Backing up in time, 'Rider had come off a try in a Gr 3 on the synthetic at Woodbine to run in a starter allowance like this and closed down the race from off the pace in spite of the pace being moderate at good odds of 3/1. Then two back, facing Dalarna in the Little Magician Stakes High Noon Rider had clipped heels on the back stretch and lost all chance. Then last time out he'd closed belatedly into a very slow pace for third. Today there looked to be much more speed and while Dalarna looked to be in the garden spot tracking them, he'd have to run much faster early and just might be vulnerable to the late kick of 'Rider. I also thought that the fact that the likely favorite was coming back on short rest, twenty days, AND had declining Beyers made him vulnerable. But just to be sure I played him along with my top choice in the Pick-3. Could not have played out more like I'd forseen it! As they spun out of the turn Dalarna made his move on the leaders who'd gone too fast to win and he took over. Meanwhile hot-riding Tyler Gaffalione had used a rail skimming ride to rally High Noon Rider into striking position and he swung into the clear with a full head of momentum. Even track announcer Pete Aiello was caught off guard as he called, "...High Noon Rider rallies to try and get into second, and oh, he's got his eye on getting the win!...." He blew right on by to score. I'd doubled the bet and his payoff of $11.20 triggered a $56 payoff on the straight win ticket and with a $1 Pick 3 I cashed for over $140. Oh I'm having a GREAT DAY!
Friday April 3: Pick 3 Day Recap
Saturday April 4
Well, hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney said it best in a tweet late Saturday afternoon....
I played both Gulfstream and Oaklawn today and while I knew I couldn't possibly replicate the amazing results of Friday I was surprised that I was shut out at Gulfstream and the only win I had at Oaklawn was when my pick scratched leaving me with the odds-on favorite who won for fun. I will say that I ran second and if half of those had won I'd have had an OK day. But so it goes.
Sunday April 5
I decided I'd had enough success with the multi-race wagers on Friday to risk a few more. I had more originally listed to play but decided I was stretching it. Paid for that when I would have had one late P3 but decided to save a couple dollars and narrowed my two-horse play in the third leg to just one, and of course the other won. But still, it was an excellent day of handicapping as I had FIVE winners on the day. After missing in the opener with a Saffie Joseph runner that looked CLEARLY best, ran seventh at even money, I had the winner in the second. Swirling Candy was facing nw2L turf sprinters after wiring a $25K maiden field two back and then dueling on the lead against winners last time out before dead-heating for third. With the outside draw I thought the hot-riding Tyler Gaffalione might stalk the pace to win here, but she broke sharply and went right to the front and scored wire-to-wire.
In the third, an open claiming sprint going 6 1/2 furlongs I thought we'd know before the opening quarter mile was over if Kiffle would be winning or not because she'd won four times in wire-to-wire fashion in sprints. Then coming off a November to late February break she was sent out in a two-turn mile turf event. Showed speed into the lane then weakened to fifth, but only beaten two lengths. It just seemed to me that this was the perfect foundation to take this group, on the big drop down to $10K, wire to wire if no one else showed speed. She did get pressure in the opening quarter mile but as they approached the far turn Tyler G hadn't moved a muscle and the others close to the front were vigorously asking their horses for run. Shook the reins turning for home and kissed the field a pleasant good bye by a widening seven plus lengths.
I was alive with a Pick 3 and a Daily Double heading into the 4th, an entry level allowance going five furlongs on the turf and Cryogenics looked formidable. Of the 139 combined speed figures of the rivals facing him only three would be competitive with his "paired" last two figures. One had been earned by a horse that was 0-for-16 at Gulfstream and had earned the number in 2017, and the other was earned by a horse that 1-for-17 and hadn't earned a number like that in two years. While neither the Double or the P3 would pay alot, still I'd have them. If only they didn't actually RUN the races I'd have had it. Cryogenics was steadied at the start and again at the 3/8th pole and finished strongly to be third. The winner had set the pace last time out against Cryogenics who ran by him to win by a widening two plus lengths. In the sixth I really thought Gotta Go Moe had an excellent chance to wire this MSW turf sprint in her sixth start. In her last three she'd draw out wide and had to battle on the lead while giving up ground. Today she had the rail and if she ran back to her previous she'd be LONG gone under Luis Saez. Indeed she was sharp out of the gate and was easily clear, opened up by daylight in the lane then wasn't asked for everything as she held off the field to score as the 4/5 favorite.
In the seventh it was a nw3L event going six furlongs. Typically in a 3-lifetime event I like a runner who's never been in such a conditioned event, but there weren't any of those. But I thought Sky Chaser looked solid in here. She'd been in stakes company and was a best-of-the-rest 2nd for $35K 3L behind Flat Awesome Jenny who had won three in a row until she hopped at the break and lost all chance in her most recent. Today Sky Chaser was dropping down to $20K. She was wide all the way under one of the low-percentage riders, but as they turned for home her better ability and class carried her to the front as she ground out the win and edged clear by a little more than a length.
We were heading into one of my most confident selections and Ron Nicoletti's BEST BET of the Day in the 8th. And I was alive in a P3 with Gotta Go Mo/Sky Chaser and in a Daily Double with the latter. Even though it wouldn't pay much with both of those horses going off at even money, it was two winning tickets I thought I "had." Voodoo Zip was the only one in the field who'd run better than the par figure for the race, ever, and she'd done it in her last. Trainer Danny Gargan won at a big 39% clip at the tough Championship Meet, and he had hot-riding Tyler Gaffalione in the irons - he'd won TEN races through the first three days of the spring and had two already today. Gaffalione had her sitting in third behind the front runner who while pressured somewhat was going easily up front. It's always easy to second guess but I thought he moved too late on Voodoo and she fell a neck shy of getting me the win, double, and P3 ticket. Sigh..... In the ninth I liked Proven Strategies from the Chad Brown barn but decided in her first try against winners I'd watch. Wire to wire at even money. Wow. The next race wasn't the "bet of the day" but in my mind was the "race of the day." On March fifth Up In Smoke was exiting a very impressive win in state-bred maiden special company to try state-bred entry level allowance foes with John Velazquez in the saddle. She pressed the pace through the opening quarter but didn't seem comfortable with the kick back of dirt and gradually began dropping back until she disappeared off the screen prompting Announcer Pete to say, "....the favorite is literally up in smoke...." But as the field swung into the lane there was a blur of a horse from the back who was swinging wide. Then at the 1/8th pole she was fifth and on the move. What the???? Blew by to win emphatically. The most unusual and impressive race I've seen in a long time. So how would she run today. Adding to the intrigue she was moving from state-bred to OPEN allowance foes here. She broke cleanly but dropped back quickly to trail almost ten off the leaders. But Luis Saez got her moving on the turn and was within a couple lengths and flying as they came into the stretch. Blew by just like last time and I had my fifth winner on the day.
One word about the investments for the week. Held my winning percentage that I'm usually at, but because of the multi-race wagers I turned what would have been a pretty good loss for the week into a nearly $100 profit for the first week of the meet. If I can win at my usual pace and payoffs I'll recoup a lot of the money I lost from that big Friday and that should carry me through several weeks. We'll be back at it on Thursday!
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