Opening Night At Churchill Downs

 Saturday April 24

Thursday morning Kim left for a Girls' Getaway Weekend in Daytona and so I was left to myself.  Luckily for me I had a hockey game with my buddy on Thursday evening; would spend all day handicapping on Friday (literally didn't finish until 5 pm); and then spent all day Saturday at the track - both physically and virtually as I had bets from about noon until nearly 11 pm!  AND had a hockey game to watch from 7 pm to 10:30 pm.  WHAT a day.  Here's how it all panned out......

For the day I had picks from Gulfstream.....was surprised at the number I had for a spring day, but was happy since my seats were outside in the grandstand; from Pimlico for their "Spring Stakes Spectacular" - which had been moved from Laurel due to track surface issues; Belmont, which had opened for the spring/summer this week; Oaklawn, which is about to wrap up their winter-spring meet; Golden Gate in San Francisco because it was their "Gold Rush" weekend of stakes; and a couple of stakes from Santa Anita as well.  The day started with me running fourth with the favorite on the turf at Gulfstream as my second choice wired the field at 4/1.  Then I ran 2nd at Belmont at 6/5 and second at Gulfstream at 5/2.  At Belmont and Gulfstream I was clear with a furlong to go and JUST got caught.  Next up was the opener at Oaklawn.  On paper Purda Vita looked to be L-O-N-G gone on the front end.  My question was that she'd been facing far richer in So Cal before coming here for this near the bottom level $16K maiden claimer.  Still, SHOULD be clear.  Right to the front, opened up by half a dozen early and the others just said, "go ahead you can have it, we'll never catch you."  Wire to wire at 1-2 odds.  When the betting was so solid I doubled my initial minimum bet.  AND as a side note, my favorite tellers to bet with are twins Kim and Karen, but the few times I was out there this winter I never saw them.  Today I found the girls.  Nice to see them.

About ten minutes later the runners were in the gate for the fourth at Gulfstream and again, I liked what looked to be the LONE speed in Beeboo.  He was dropping in sales price, going turf to dirt and clearly was the quickest early.  Add in that this dirt sprint was only 5 1/2 furlongs and he too looked long gone.  Easily, in hand at 6/5.  Suddenly I'm 2-for-4 and having a very nice start to the day!

Ran fifth in the next at Gulfstream and then at Belmont my 6/5 favorite choice rallied to late to catch the winner, second again - for the third time today.  This would become a common theme to the day as you are about to see.  The sixth at Gulfstream was interesting as the two public handicappers had different top choices and NEITHER had the others' top pick in their top three.  Ron Nicoletti and I agreed on Creative Cloud who was dropping in class for Saffie Joseph and going turf to dirt.  The race was really exciting as at the top of the stretch Announcer Pete called, "SIX across the track, WHO DO YOU LIKE HERE!"  But it was Creative Cloud who surged to the front and was clear under the wire as the favorite.  And less than twenty minutes later Earner wired the fourth at Oaklawn.  AND again, at about 3:30 in the afternoon I was swinging at better than 40$ clip having won four of nine on the day.

Then it happened.  And thanks to my many years of experience I just "went with it" and stuck to my picks because I know how this works.  My "Best" of the Day at Pimlico was in the Dahlia with Crystal Cliffs.  Sat the perfect trip, surged to the front, opened up and was nailed on the line.  Seventh at GP at 6/5, the eight at 4/5 in the Frank Whiteley at Pimlico.  SECOND at 4/5 in the Crystal Waters at Santa Anita; SECOND at 3/1 at Belmont; SECOND at Golden Gate at 4/5; SECOND in the Henry Clark at Pimlico (another photo); SECOND at Golden Gate at 5/2; SECOND in a Belmont Stakes at 6/5 (in another photo); SECOND in another stakes at Pimlico; third at 4/5 at Golden Gate; SECOND at Gulfstream at 7/2 - that would have helped; and in the first race once I got home, SECOND in the Churchill Downs opener; and finally SECOND in the 9th at Oaklawn at 2/5 odds.  Let me tell you something....you HAVE to have some patience and faith in your selections and handicapping ability to endure that stretch which ran from 3:30 pm to 6:00 pm over a span of fourteen races without a win!

Crystal Cliffs SECOND (inside) in Dahlia Stakes (left) / Pixelate SECOND (inside) in Henry Clark Stakes

By now I'd reached home and was playing online and I was excited for opening night at Churchill Downs to get underway.  After running second in the opener I had a pick in Golden Gate's sixth, a claiming spring for three-year-old fillies.  IF you were willing to dismiss the last from Island Life she was obvious.  And I was - that came first time winners, too fast on the front end, and against much richer.  On the drop, with the top rider and barn.  Tracked into the stretch and wore down the leader in the final sixteenth to score as the 3/2 favorite.  The tenth at Oaklawn was their featured Bachelor Stakes for three-year-olds.  And looking over the past performances it looked like a near virtual repeat of the March 20th Gazebo Stakes.  On that day Jaxon Traveler was the 3/2 favorite on the basis of back to back front running wins in Maryland.  But on that March afternoon a 20/1 outsider quarter-horsed to the lead.  'Traveler sat off the pace, came with a late run and just, JUST failed to catch the winner, Sir Wellington who'd been closer to the pace that day, and was entered back today.  I thought that 'Traveler would be sharper on the front end today.  Sure enough he went right to the front, opened up by daylight and no one got within a couple lengths throughout the trip.  Wire to wire at 8/5 and I had won two in a row, virtually.

Next up was the Golden Poppy from Golden Gate the first of the stakes events on the Golden Gate "Gold Rush" card.  This mile and a sixteenth turf test featured two runners who had last seen each other in a graded event at Santa Anita.  That day Red Lark, today's favorite, had run down Altea - who was the 5/2 second choice in the program.  But I liked Altea.  She had run at one time for Chad Brown and run well.  Since moving out west she was under the care of Mike McCarthy.  She exited four straight graded stakes and what led me to liking her here was that when Red Lark caught her, they were going a mile and a quarter.  And from looking at the two past performance records, 'Lark looked to be much more effective going longer.  Spinning out of the turn Altea swooped up three wide and got the lead.  At the sixteenth pole Red Lark began her move.  With each stride she was gaining, but she was too late!  Best news of all.....the crowd had let Altea float up to 5/1 and she paid a nice $12.80 as I collected on my third win.  I'm enjoying the racing at home!

The third from Churchill was next.  It was a mid-level claimer and the question of the race was, why was Relentless Dancer in for this tag?  Since winning his MSW debut he'd run in THIRTEEN straight stakes, winning three of them.  After briefly trying the Derby trail - his early success had been in La-bred events - he'd backed off.  He was coming in here off four straight dull efforts and I thought that this was meant to get him back into the winner's circle and get some confidence.  I also thought that if they were giving up on him he'd have been dropped another couple of notches.  He tracked the 9/5 second choice into the lane and then the match race was on.  Edged clear late and I had my FOURTH consecutive win!

In Golden Gate's California Derby my pick was the 4/5 favorite.  Parnelli pressed the leaders into the turn, made a bid then weakened to be third.  The eight at Santa Anita was my BET of the Day.  Bob Baffert not typically known for his fillies and mares has a budding superstar in As Time Goes By.  Last time out she'd faced Swiss Skydiver and was a best of the rest second.  While 'Skydiver had failed to fire in her next, the Gr 1 Apple Blossom, I thought front running 'Time was way WAY the best here.  Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith took her to the front and she was tracked intently by the 2/1 second choice into the far turn.  Smith flicked his wrists and As Time Goes By lengthened her stride without even asking.  Glided home by a pole.  The 3/5 price was a handicapper's gift - cashed for over $30 as I notched my fifth win since coming home.

Mixed feelings in Churchill's fourth as Launch Pad had been a solid fourth in a maiden claimer for the same price he was in for tonight at Keeneland.  That had been at 35/1 odds - wouldn't get that tonight.  I gave him extra credit for the effort as his first two had been over the Turfway synthetic.  If he continued to improve, as he had in each start to date, he was a likely winner.  He made his move on the turn, and it was not an acceleration just a steady grinding effort that eventually got to the tiring front runner in deep stretch.  ANOTHER WIN for Mr. Mark!  In the feature at Golden Gate, the Grade 3 San Francisco Mile I went with the 5yo mare, Keeper Ofthe Stars who was a perfect 3-for-3 in San Francisco.  She was NOT going to be the favorite facing the boys but I thought she had a real shot.  Sent off at a generous 5/1 she took the lead into the lane, was clear by a length with a furlong to go with the favorite bearing down.....WHERE'S THE WIRE.  JUST failed to last - good handicapping, no reward.  At this point I was watching the hockey game on one channel and had two live streaming windows open on the computer as I followed the rest of the Golden Gate program and Churchill Downs.  For the next two hours I had five picks and won with only one of them while I ran SECOND in two more - both as short priced favorites at 3/5 and 6/5.  The one win came under the Twin Spires in their sixth, a non-winners of two lifetime claiming event going six and a half furlongs.  But, while it was a restricted race it was also for a very rich $50K price tag so there was some quality to this group.  The two most likely were Convection and Extreme Force.  The good news about the former was he exited a win at Keeneland, in his debut with a sharp 76 Beyer.  BUT, that was for a $35K tag.  The latter exited a win in Maiden Special company which would typically give him the edge.  But hold on a tic.....not only did it come at second tier Sam Houston, but came in his NINTH career start - oh.  I went with the former.  Convection tracked the two leaders into the stretch, made his move....stretch duel to the final 16th and edged clear for the win as the 7/5  choice.

As we approached the Churchill feature, the William Walker Stakes, a turf sprint for three-year-olds, my top choice had been scratched.  And oh, by the way, the Florida Panthers had fallen behind 1-3 in the third to their division rivals the Carolina Panthers.  But scored two goals, one short-handed, to tie it and then won in overtime in an exciting finish.  I looked over the field again and didn't have a firm opinion so I wanted to see what the two on-air analysts had to say.  When both agreed that Field Day was a solid favorite I thought they were right so I invested in the race.  Was away last, and in a turf sprint, that's never good.  Into the far turn, STILL dead last.  Sigh, well, so it goes.  But then he began gathering momentum.  He caught the eye of announcer Travis Stone as he began to pick off horses at the top of the stretch and in the final 100 yards he surged by.  WOW - very exciting and as the 9/5 mild favorite he was my TWELFTH winner of the long day.  One race to go.

In the Churchill Downs finale it was a second level allowance sprint going six furlongs.  On the surface it seemed wide open but Bayerness caught my eye.  First, she was exiting four straight stakes tries.  Prior to that she'd won her first two career starts - a MSW debut at Keeneland and then an entry level allowance HERE in Louisville.  It sealed the deal when I noted the filly she beat in her debut was none other than multiple graded stakes winning filly Swiss Skydiver.  Into the far turn Bayerness was tracking the leaders and moved four wide.  The front runner cut the corner smartly and was clear at the furlong marker but my pick had all the momentum and ran by through the final two hundred yards.

Seventeen - count them - wow

So despite the FOURTEEN race skid and a day's total of a remarkable SEVENTEEN second place finishes, I concluded the day 13-for-39, a sharp 33% win rate.  Well done my friend!

April 24 Highlights

Social Media

So this week I had exchanges with two of "my news girls."  Loved that Lauren laughed at my comment and was particularly pleased that Karli not only responded to my comment while on the air, but used the glasses emoji - which fit the comment exchange - "playing along" with me.  Love my girls.  Also exchanged comments with the cute Coach Kelly from Oasis High.

I'm A Horseowner! Apple Blossom Weekend

 April 16 - 17

This time of year is a "slow down and regroup/recharge" time of the year as we are heading first into the five week Triple Crown Season and then into the summer racing season.  And so I play sporadically and mostly on the weekend.  The highlight race this weekend was the Apple Blossom, a Grade 1 worth a million dollars that was billed as the showdown between Monomoy Girl and Swiss Skydiver.  Kim and I were heading to the west coast of Florida for the weekend so I handicapped first the Friday card at Keeneland and then the Saturday card at Oaklawn.  I know, right, seems odd that I'd (a) only be playing two days, and (b) that both days only a single track.  But trying to get my handicapping batteries built back up for the next big season!  

On Friday the Keeneland card had ten races and I had six plays on the day.  After passing on the initial race I went in for a small amount on Bye Bye Bertie in the second, a starter allowance going seven furlongs.  I noted that Keep Your Distance was a deserving favorite but that off a tough race/win last time out I thought she might be vulnerable.  'Bertie tracked the front runner and the favorite into the turn and was in perfect position to make the winning move, but the favorite was too good and my pick ran evenly to be third.  Passed the third and then, against my better judgement I went with Javier Castellano on a short priced favorite, Deferred Taxes for Chad Brown.  I reasoned that in a short six horse field CERTAINLY he could not get into trouble here.  But, while he didn't get into trouble he was not close enough to the loose-on-the-lead 17/1 leader and left himself too much to do late, second at odds-on.  WOW.  Passed the sixth and finally got my first winner of the weekend with Master Piece in the 7th.  The Chad Brown South-American import made his run at odds of 1-2 and just edged clear late.  I had tripled the bet so I scored for nearly $25.

Missed in the 7th and passed the eighth before it was time for the featured Grade 3 Doubledogdare.  I had seen the likely favorite, Speech run before.  And while it was true she'd won HERE and with a big number I really thought she was overrated.  The other one who looked a likely win candidate was Chad Brown's Royal Flag.  What I didn't like was that she never ran super - always, "good."  If no one else fired she could win.  But I thought today that Bonny South, who was listed at 3/1 in the program, had an opportunity to run well.  Looked to be sitting on a big effort off a blistering bullet workout and had Florent Geroux riding for Brad Cox.  Speech stopped after a half and turning for home it was Royal Flag and Bonny South.  It was close on the wire, but I got up to win at a nice 7/2 price and cashed for nearly $25 again.

One of the cool things that happened during the week was that I got my opportunity to become a race horse owner/investor when after signing up with MyRacehorse.com I was able to purchase two shares in Monomoy Girl.  And I got a notice from my "ownership group" about what my potential payoffs would be if she were to win the Grade 1 Apple Blossom on Saturday.  We were visiting Kim's mom and twin sister in Englewood as I watched.  I hit two winners during the undercard and cashed on them for a combined $20 and change - both with minimum bets - before the big race.  

Monomoy Girl completely dominated the other headliner, Swiss Skydiver, but the Irad Ortiz "lone speedster" was more difficult.  As they spun out of the turn Monomoy Girl had her dead to rights and accelerated to join her and then put a head in front.  But Ortiz had saved something and the ultimate winner battled back.  It was an intense and epic stretch duel......

Oh so close.  Seventeen starts for Monomoy Girl and this was only the second time she had not crossed the line first.  But, as you can see I still cashed out with my share of the winnings!  As an added bonus to the week I heard from my gal-pal and newscaster, Lauren Pastrana :)

Arkansas Derby Weekend

 April 9 - 11

On Wednesday I left Fort Lauderdale after lunch and flew to visit my Mom, sister and niece in Columbus, Ohio.  The plan for the week was to enjoy family time, play the races over the weekend and to visit with friends in the area.  The flights to Ohio went smoothly and I tried to begin handicapping for the big day Saturday but was too crowded.  Put the laptop away, then realized I could use it as a TV to watch some inflight entertainment.  Got it out but the computer was dead.  Uh oh, that's not good for the week.  Hopefully it's just an issue with battery life?  First thing I did when I got to my Mom's was to plug in the computer and fire it up.....yep, that's it - battery not holding a charge.  So on Thursday I finished all my handicapping for the weekend.  Friday morning I added in the Keeneland races to my handicapping selection sheet for Saturday.  Then at about noon I headed out for Hebron, Kentucky just across the Ohio River in the greater Cincinnati area.  When we were on the Viking Portugal River cruise in November 2019 Kim  an I had arranged to sail with our friends Dennis & Mary whom we'd met on a Rhine River Cruise the previous spring.  But the first night we met Mary Pat & Tom, and Pam & Bob.  We found it interesting that Mary Pat had gone to Miami (Oh) at about the same time I'd gone and Pam & Bob lived very close to Kansas University where our son Jeff had worked for several years.  See our Portugal Adventure HERE.

And the end of the cruise I'd asked everyone if they were interested in traveling together and when they all said yes, enthusiastically I might add, I stopped them and told them that they had better tell me now if they were not serious because I would NOT let this go until we'd traveled together again.  The following January we agreed to meet for nearly a week in the Smoky Mountains in a big log cabin.  But as the time approached and the pandemic was limiting travel the numbers were reduced to just Mary Pat, Tom, Kim and I....and Keith joined us.  See our adventure HERE

Dennis & Mary had his brother's wedding that weekend and Pam's mother fell and needed their help.  So while we were in Gatlinbug  we booked a future cruise for this coming November (2021) to Eastern Europe.  In the end it was only Pam & Bob that will be joining Kim and I .... IF that trip goes.  But one major goal I had for this visit was MP and Tom was to pursue a potential fall trip because just before I left for Ohio my Viking River Cruise to Russia was cancelled.  I had seen that American Cruise Lines were sailing now and was hopeful that we could find something in the late August to September time frame that we could all go.  Dennis & Mary have pretty much backed out of travel (mostly Mary), so when Mary Pat and I settled on a trip to the Pacific Northwest in late September, over Kim's birthday - which will give the six of is something to really celebrate - everyone was very excited to sign on.  While I was with Mary Pat & Tom I talked with Pam & Bob on the phone and immediately the six of us were hooked into my travel agent Nancy Nelson and deposits were made.  We all got a bonus $800 discount for booking so quickly and Kim and I received $500 off for each couple we brought on since we were past guests.  Check out our trip HERE.  Had a wonderful grilled chicken dinner (with vegetables) on the deck with the Cincy couple and then headed back to my Mom's.

When I returned I checked out the racing results for the first day of the weekend.  My pick in the Friday opener scratched.  In the second my runner was a fair 3/1 but ran around the track in sixth the entire trip.  I had a Shug McGaughey runner who promised to be a big price in the third and he was 18/1.  Up close in fourth most of the way, enough to give me a glimmer of hope before finishing 6th as well.  THe fifth was an entry level allowance and I liked a Chad Brown trained, Peter Brant owned, Irad Ortiz ridden filly.  So did everyone else.....but was a fading sixth at 1-2 odds after swooping up to second at the top of the stretch.  WOW.  In the sixth I recognized the Todd Pletcher filly Spice Is Nice.  Last winter the $1 Million sales grad had been sensational in her debut and I made her my top pick in both the Grade 2 Davona Dale and Grade 2 GP Oaks, but she didn't run to her favored odds.  Later in the summer she won an allowance event, like this and at this distance of a mile and a sixteenth - albeit around one turn at Belmont - then was sent to the Grade 1 Alabama where she was outrun.  Back to allowance company and if she ran to her non-stakes tries she'd win.  Got a perfect tracking trip to the top of the short stretch, briefly dueled with the front runner and then pulled clear late in the shadow of the first finish line.

And I had the first winner of the week.  Two stakes races remained on the card and in the first, a 3yo turf sprint, my pick scratched and in the Grade 1 Maker's Mark Mile I was fifth at 5/2 when Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz DID score for Peter Brant, and at a nice 7/2 price.  Sigh....zigging when I should have been zagging.  That's ok, I got many picks tomorrow!

Saturday April 10:  Arkansas Derby Day

Today I needed to make the first several plays online because we were headed up to Delaware and the campus of Ohio Wesleyan where my most favorite niece was throwing the hammer and discus in a competition against three other colleges.  Ended up being out of the house, away from the races for the majority of the day.  But not to worry, through the wonder of technology I was able to watch and wager on my phone using the 1stBet/Xpressbet app.  My first selection was a maiden sprint from Oaklawn.  I went off as the 2/1 second choice...pressed the pace to the top of the far turn and faded away to the back of the pack.  Next up was the Keeneland opener and I asked the rhetorical question, "when have you seem me put a horse on top that earned a last-out Beyer of 2, yes TWO, and was beaten by 45 lengths in their last.  But today Got Hammered was coming off a long layoff for trainer Larry Rivelli - a specialty of his; Irad Ortiz was up; and on his "good day" Got Hammered would win.  Sent off as the short priced 3/2 favorite he led to the far turn, then stopped and faded to a well-beaten fifth.  Next up was second from Hot Springs and Box of Chocolates had been 4/1 in the program for this starter allowance.  I mentioned in my analysis that MAYBE we should bet win-place-show because he'd not won in almost two years and during that 19 race skid he'd hit the board in ten of them.  The crowd took a very optimistic view and sent him off as the even money favorite.  Made a bid through the turn, but then hung.  I chuckled out loud as I watch him fail to want to win and remembered my comments, and told myself, "I KNEW I should have bet across the board!"  But even if I'd bet $2 across the board the $6 investment would have only returned $5.  I passed the second at Keeneland and when I saw who the winner was I shook my head because I "SHOULD" have made a hunch bet.  On paper Zanesville was my second choice.  This was "significant" because I AM in Ohio this weekend I'd noted in my analysis, and my first real serious girlfriend had lived in Zanesville.  The Horse Racing gods trying to tell me something?  I ignored the opportunity and Zanesville won and paid $7.60.  Sigh...... I really thought I had my first winner in the next at Oakland.  Sianara was making her third career start and the two Beyers she'd earned in her first two starts were a pole faster than what anyone else had earned....though noting these were lightly raced three-year-olds.  Easily cleared from the rail and was in front my two lengths heading into the turn as the prohibitive 2/5 favorite.  The lead was down to less than a length as heads turned for home and I "knew" she'd spurt away to win for fun now.....but no.  Faded to fourth.  WOW.  The day is NOT going the way I'd envisioned it.  BUT I told myself as we all got in the car to grab some lunch,   I had one more runner heading to the post before a break of about an hour where I had back-to-back "PASS" races, so the timing for lunch was ideal.  This was a MSW event for 3 and up and Turnagain Tide had debuted in what had turned out to be a KEY race.  The winner had come back to win vs. winners and was the favorite in a Grade 2 where he was third, then most recently won Grade 1 Santa Anita Big 'Cap.  The runner-up from the race had come back to win, then took an allowance at Aqueduct before winning again at Oaklawn as my BET of the Day.  Would 'Tide be ready off the shelf for trainer Brad Cox?  The 2nd best of 104 works told me YES in a big way, and jockey Irad Ortiz on today sealed the deal.  Dueled into the lane from the gate but edged clear in the final stages of the stretch.

Tripled the bet so I was able to cash for nearly $25 and suddenly I almost even on the day!  Gotta love racing.  Got back from lunch and in the fifth at Oaklawn Impossible Task went off at 2/1.  Right to the front and looked long gone first off the claim for John Sadler, but on the far turn was collared and faded to the back of the field.  Conversely, minutest later West Will Power sat just off the pace in Keeneland's sixth.  Took over willingly entering the far turn and ran away as TONS the best.  He was, as I'd hoped in my analysis the "good version" of 'Will Power.  Only had the minimum as I wasn't convinced he was consistent AND Javier Castellano was on board.  But hey....a win is a win.

Was disappointed when Frank's Rockette was only 2nd best in Oaklawn's Carousel Stakes.  Next on the list was the Grade 3 Ben Ali going nine furlongs at Keeneland.  There were several reasons I not only went with Silver Dust, who was listed as the second choice in the program, but I did NOT trust the favorite.  The one question I wondered about was why off the layoff trainer Brett Calhoun had run him on the turf, but I dismissed that as a prep for today.  Prior to that you could toss his try in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile where Knicks Go had buried the field.  And prior to that he ran very well in graded company behind multiple stakes winners By My Standards, Owendale, and Tom's d'Etat.  Now the four prior to that had been three wins and a neck 2nd - ALL in graded events.  He looked a LOT more trustworthy than Night Ops who I thought was overrated, but got Castellano up.  Silver Dust pressed the leader from the opening bell to the top of the lane, put his head in front and within a couple of strides all five of the runners were lined up across the track within a neck of each other.  But Silver Dust never gave in nor was he headed.  And when the prices were announced he became, officially, the "DAY MAKER" of the day.  Paid a whopping $11.20 and with my triple investment I cashed for over $80, making today a profitable day regardless of how the rest of the afternoon's events turned out.  WHOOO HOOOOO.

I was nearly certain I had a winner in Keeneland's Giant Causeway Stakes, a five furlong turf sprint.  Into Mystic was clear on an easy lead into the stretch until a nearly 9/1 off-the-pace runner blew by.  Second again.  Sigh.....The next stakes at Keeneland was the co-featured Lexington which offered Kentucky Derby points.  On paper Proxy just looked so much the best horse.  His last three starts had earned Beyer figures that beat all thirty-six combined lifetime starts of today's rivals.  And as I wrote, I'd grant you that they MIGHT be suspicious since none were earned in victory.  But he'd been a close second in BOTH the Grade 3 Lecomte three back and the Gr 2 Risen Star two back before running a solid fourth in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby....and remember that figure also beat all the rest of the numbers on the page.  But on the far turn he was just going nowhere and ended up an even fourth while the winner paid a whopping $38.40.  With the 20/1 underneath the exacta returned $438.20 for a two dollar bet.  WOW.  The next race at Oaklawn was an allowance event that carried a huge $105K purse.  I'll be the first to admit that one of the reasons I liked my top pick was his name.  When I worked at Cypress Bay, one of my best gal-pals was the very attractive office manager, Shasha Hilbon.  We worked together for nine years on every graduation and she was always a great friend to me.  She was the one that helped me find my current sports car which I love to death.  Well, the top choice in this six furlong sprint was named Shashashakemeup!  I'd bet him before and he'd won for me.  So on name alone I wanted to bet him but he looked best on paper as well.  As the field swung into the far turn the leader, who was the 2/1 second choice was cruising on a daylight lead and he truly had not gone overly fast.  But Shasha was sitting near the back entering the turn.  But then you could see my top pick was gathering momentum while picking off horses through the turn.  At about the furlong marker you could tell the front runner was tiring and Shasha was running two strides for every one of the leader.  Just a matter of time as he blew by to score!  I'd tripled my bet as I scored with Shasha again!

The next at Oaklawn was the $400K Oaklawn Mile.  I felt that if By My Standards ran his top race he would be a clear winner.  He'd won six of eight last year with his two losses being best-of-the-rest 2nd behind two multiple graded stakes winner in a Gr 1 and a Gr 2.  But his last two, in the Gr 1 BC Classic and Gr 1 Clark were nothing to write home about.  Coming off the bench he had sharp works.  My main question was the one mile distance as I thought he'd be better at 8 1/2 furlong or the full mile and an eighth.  He was in fifth into the turn while the favorite was trapped behind horses on the rail.  Swung out for a clear run and then the rail opened like the parting of the Red Sea.  Still, By My Standards was inching closer and closer.....oh this is going to be CLOSE......PHOTO FINISH!  Honestly at first glance live I thought "maybe" I MIGHT have won.  The replay, oh I might have lost....I'd be happy with a dead heat.  Then the picture came up......

#6 By My Standards gets the nose down first!

OH BOY that was close, but I'm cashing for nearly $35 on another stakes winner.  I missed in the featured Grade 1 Jenny Wiley on the turf at Keeneland when the winner went wire to wire and I chased in second all the way around.  Disappointed when both Whitmore in the Grade 3 Count Fleet at Oaklawn and then Concert Tour in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby failed to score, the latter as the prohibitive 2/5 favorite.    The final win of the day came in the Keeneland finale when Triple Crown winner Justify's half brother, Stage Raider was much, MUCH the best as he drew off by a whopping near eleven lengths.  Cashed for nearly $30 on my sixth winner of the afternoon.

Arkansas Derby Weekend Racing Highlights

On Sunday I worked on the video highlights and then looked at the entries for today.  Did I see anyone who just looked by name and odds as a clear cut winner to end the week with a winning score.  That came in the fourth where Todd Pletcher's Champagne Salute was exiting a race where the winner had come back to run 2nd in the Grade 1 Ashland.  The field was scratched down to four runners and he looked like an easy winner into the lane but then the longest priced runner came to him and the stretch duel was on.....but he was good enough and I ended the week with another victory.

Then on Monday to top off the weekend I met with one of my most very favorite high school gal-pals, Gayla.  Had a long lunch and a big glass of wine as we shared stories about what we'd been going through over the last year and change.  A great trip, great family time, great friends, and good racing!

And on the social media front....welcomed back "my girl" Lauren Pastrana to the anchor desk :)

Triple Crown Season 2021 Kicks Off

 Opening Weekend At Keeneland

April 2 - 3 

It was Easter weekend and both my boys and their families were in town for the holiday as the new racing season began.  Last year's Keeneland Spring Meet was canceled by the pandemic and they ran an abbreviated five day meet in July before going back to their normal Fall Meet last October.  It was announced about a month ago that they would allow limited fans but you had to enter a lottery.  Keith and I tried to get in for the second weekend but to no avail.  I originally planned only to plan on Saturday, but it was Opening Day on Friday instead of on Wednesday and I was done with all my wrap-up from the Gulfstream Championship Meet by Wednesday morning so I decided to play. the card.  The first story of the spring concerns a loss.  Every spring when Gulfstream moves to their Spring/Summer Meet and the "big horses" move out, at the Keeneland meet trainer Wesley Ward unveils his two-year-olds and they nearly all win.  So last year when there wasn't a Keeneland spring, they ran at Gulfstream and he didn't have nearly the same kind of success.  So I was a bit leery about what would happen this spring.  But in the opener it was a MSW for two-year-olds and the favorite was a Ward firster.  The stats provided by the Keeneland analyst showed that since Keeneland has returned to dirt several years ago there have been 51 2yo maiden sprints and Ward has won TWENTY-NINE of them.  One guy has seven wins and no one else has more than two.  Dream Fly had not one but two bullet works and had lured excellent speed rider Joel Rosario.  As they loaded into the gate the TVG analysts remarked about the difficulty of the rail draw - uh, oh....I'd missed that with there being an entry.  Well, trust in Ward and Rosario, right.  Broke slowly and rallied for second behind the 9/5 second choice who wired the field for the trainer who had seven 2yo wins.  Sigh....Ran third, sixth and second again in my next three picks before coming to the featured Grade 3 Transylvania for 3yo colts.  I preferred Shug McGaughey's Scarlett Sky over the post-time favorite who'd won the BC Juvenile Turf here last fall.  'Sky had made his 3yo debut at Gulfstream in an allowance event and had won with a figure faster than his 2yo top.  That's always a good sign.  In his next, his most recent, he ran in the Palm Beach Stakes and that was the key for me.  First, the race had been oddly run as the front runner sped off by more than a dozen into the far turn forcing the pressers, like Scarlett Sky to move earlier to reel him in.  Caught the leader but was nailed on the wire.  A more conventional pace scenario and maybe he wins.  Second, the winner of the race was the highly regarded Bill Mott colt who was coming in off a maiden win and still was the favorite in the Palm Beach.  And then Annex had come back to win the Cutler Bay last Saturday on the Florida Derby Day undercard as my BET of the Day.  All these things pointed out Scarlett Sky to be my top choice.  Was wondering if it was just "that kind of day" as the field hit the far turn and he was dead last, separated from the field by open lengths, and the BC winner had taken the front.  He began to gather momentum but was forced widest of all and as the field hit the furlong pole he was still so wide and far back that even his shadow wasn't in the television screen.  But inside the final 16th he came roaring down the middle of the course to win going away!

Cashed for well over $50 and I finished the day nearly even.  I'm ok with that!  Meanwhile Jeff had played all day and after being up early finished the day down a bit.

Super Stakes Saturday - April 3rd

Jeff had given me $100 to play at the Sunrise Simulcast Center on Friday and he used his remaining funds as a deposit to play today.  While he and I played and watched on Friday Brad had hung out with us with some interest, which is typical of his interest in the racing game.  But this morning he asked me about the races and I told him I felt pretty good about my picks today and he asked, "If I give you $100 can you spread the money around on your picks?"  I told him yes, but that I preferred to explain my picks and he choose where to put his money and how much.  After a quick run through he decided to play $10 each on my three big bets.  Then he'd play only $2 on my three minimum plays.  And $5 on all the rest.  That put him at $111 and I told him that he was nearly certain to win the "extra" $11 somewhere during the day.  He transferred the money over, I deposited it and made all his bets.  As the day started we posed for a "Three Boys" photo .....

I ran 2nd at 2/1 in the first race at Keeneland.  In the third at Aqueduct it was a Maiden Special for 3yo and I liked Todd Pletcher's Great Workout.  He actually had great workouts for his debut and he had lured Irad Ortiz who was now in New York.  On Friday as we watched I remarked to the boys on more than one occasion that until about a year and a half ago NEVER was leaving the gate an issue with any of my runners.  But since then I could not tell them how many times the gates opened and I was immediately at the rear of the field.  And so it was with the favored Great Workout.  Ortiz moved him up on the far turn, swung wide into the lane but with a furlong to go he still was about half a dozen behind but beginning to run on.  Running out of time the front runner began to noticeably tire.....closing, PHOTO FINISH.  Oh so close but I was pretty sure I'd won - and I did.  

Of course Brad enjoyed winning his first bet as well! The next race from New York was the first of their many stakes on Wood Memorial Day, the NY version of the Florida Derby.  This was the Grade 3 Bayshore at seven furlongs for three-year-olds.  The only question for me was would Saffie Joseph's Drain The Clock be at full strength after stretching out last time in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth.  He'd made the lead, was clear into mid-stretch before then-Kentucky Derby favorite Greatest Honour came flying by from the back to catch him late, 'Clock was well clear of the field for 2nd.  Irad Ortiz was up and if right, this colt would be an easy, odds-on winner.  Right away I knew I had the right one.  He burst out of the gate and then the fractions went up, only :47.4 for the half....wow, if he'd run a :45 half he'd have won for fun.  I knew he would have plenty for the stretch and he lengthened his margin to the sixteenth pole before Irad wrapped up on him.  

Tripled the bet on my second win of the day, both from New York.  Missed the next three - in a Keeneland allowance I was pinned inside thru the turn and didn't have anywhere to run until too late when fourth at 3/1.  Then off slowly and showed little when 9th at 2/1.  Then in my first bet at Santa Anita - where it is THEIR Santa Anita Derby Day - in the second, a starter allowance I led every step of the way to the final jump when 2nd at 9/5.  The sixth at Aqueduct was the Grade 1 $300K Carter Handicap going seven furlongs.  I made the remark in my analysis that it just goes to show how much the NYRA circuit has fallen when a Grade 1 on a big Saturday, with a purse of $300 could only lure five runners.  And honestly, none of them are superstars.  And I also wrote in my analysis that I could easily make a case for all five in here.  BUT rather than pass the race I was going with the "what have you done for me lately" approach.  While all five had run big numbers and won stakes races, only Mischievous Alex had recent big numbers and stakes wins.  His two big wins, which I'd seen at Gulfstream - and I'd bet him both days - had been visually impressive victories that both earned big numbers (103-99).  And while you could legitimately ask, "but who did he beat," if he ran back to either of those figures, then someone would have to pop up with a monster back-figure effort that did not seem likely here today.  Tracked the pace to the top of the stretch, moved effortlessly to the lead under, you guessed it - Irad Ortiz - then ran away as much, MUCH the best.  Three wins from seven races and ironically ALL in New York.

Ran third in the Grade 2 Appalachian for three-year-olds at Keeneland when nobody ran with the Pletcher front runner and he wired the field in hand.  The seventh at Aqueduct was the second of my two "best bets" on the card, and this was an allowance on the turf (yes, grass racing has returned to New York!) for older, a non-winners of one.  When I handicapped the NY card I used the DRF early morning line, and it's almost always way out of line.  So I began my analysis with a rhetorical question..... "Raise your hand if anyone, ANYONE out there believes that a Chad Brown Euro import from the barn of international owner Peter Brant, will make her first start in North America at the listed 12/1 odds after earning a second and two thirds in Group 3 races and a third in a Group 1?  Anyone?"  Interestingly no one answered or raised their hand.  When the program odds came out for Flightly Lady she was the 7/5 morning line choice.  Irad, yes Irad again, had her fourth saving ground while under patient handling to the top of the lane.  Got her into the clear, asked for run and she ran by the leaders to give me my fourth winner of the day - ALL from the Empire State!

Missed three in a row following that nice win.  Hidden Scroll has always been an enigma since his scintillating win in his debut on the undercard of the 2019 Pegasus World Cup.  Had moved to the Brad Cox barn and won first time for him in allowance company, so I went with the promise he'd once held.  Seventh at 2/1.  A Bob Baffert firster was a "buzz horse" and went off at 1/2, only to be outrun by his stable mate under jockey John Velazquez.  And in the third race of the sequence, in the Grade 2 Shakertown, a turf sprint at Keeneland, my top choice, Imprimis (who's scored my 9,000th win on January 1) got the perfect trip, hit the front but was nailed in a nail-biting photo finish.  Interesting after the race his trainer was livid with the new rules disallowing Lasix for horses in stakes events as this veteran winner was visibly bleeding out of both nostrils.  Sad.  Speaking of Santa Anita.....in the previous race Jeff was watching the Santa Anita board and saw Johnny V was on a horse that was 17/1   Without any handicapping he put $10 across the board.......

Unbelievable - cashed for $260 and he'd hit several exactas to put him well into the profit zone for the day as we hit the mid-way point of the day.  Next up for me was the NY-version of the prep for the Kentucky Oaks, the Grade 3 Gazelle.  Two things struck me right away - first, Chad Brown's filly, Search Results, was unbeaten with Irad Ortiz up and would OBVIOUSLY be the favorite.  Second, the remainder of the field was hardly "Kentucky Oaks-worthy" on paper at least.  Three in the field had raced strictly on turf prior to this nine furlong dirt test; another had raced exclusively on synthetic.  And the other three had no stakes experience.  Search Results had been ridden by Irad Ortiz in her debut and he handled her patiently off the speed, then blew by to win going away.  Last time out under Javier Castellano - who is simply difficult to figure these days - Search Results went a one-turn mile in the Busher Stakes, the prep for this.  Maybe it was because she was coming off a layoff and stretching out, or maybe not, but regardless, Castellano put her on the lead and she just held on to wire the field.  Back to Ortiz was ideal in my mind as I figured she'd sit off the pace as she stretched around two turns and to this additional furlong distance.  She broke sharply and sat just off the front runner while well in hand to the far turn.  Ortiz didn't ask her but she glided up to put a head in front on the turn and when they hit the top of the lane he did ask and she took off.  Quickly in front by four or five she strode out evenly to the lane without having to give her absolute best to win as the prohibitive favorite.  FIVE WINS, and ALL FIVE in New York!  What are the odds?

On the Keeneland stakes-laden card I had two picks that I felt very strongly about.  In the Bluegrass, the featured event for the Kentucky Derby hopefuls I "knew" who was going to win barring a major problem.  But in the Grade 1 Ashland, next up for me, it was more about what I BELIEVED to be the talent and potential of Todd Pletcher's filly, Malathaat.  She had lured a $1 Million sales bid from Shadwell Stables at the sales ring and that spoke volumes to me.  Shadwell is an international racing operation with breeding facilities all over the world where they can breed their OWN BEST to their OWN BEST.  No need to go to the sales, ring, but here they did.  Also, when she'd stretched out to nine furlongs in her third start as a 2yo in December in the Grade 2 Demoiselle I had made her the Best of the Day on that Claiming Crown Saturday.  As I watched TVG that afternoon, all the on-air handicappers talked about how with the rail she looked to not only be the best filly, but the lone speed.  But then the gates opened and she was off slowly and then shut off by not one but two rivals.  On the far turn she was spinning her wheels and not gaining at all.  But once clear in the lane she closed with a fury and won going away.  I'd been duly impressed.  Going this 8 1/2 furlong distance I thought she'd sit an up close trip, if not on the lead, and then accelerate to the wire.  Also, I believed - without any evidence - that the connections had pointed her for the Kentucky Oaks and thought she'd be talented enough to win this lone prep race to get enough points to get in for the BIG Dance.  I made her a "prime time play," one of only two on the day.  Breaking from post five of six, with a fairly quick run to the first turn, she broke cleanly but not quickly.  Joel Rosario on board today let her settle in fourth, in the clear about four off the leaders and she remained there to the far turn.  With the short stretch to the first finish line he asked for run on the turn and she began to inhale the runners in front of her.  As they hit the top of the lane a stalker had burst to the front and was four in front.  But Malathaat was in full stride and going two for every one of the leader.  In a nine furlong race and/or with a full stretch to work with she wins for fun, but with the short stretch Rosario timed it perfectly to be JUST up in the shadow of the wire.  

Paid a solid $5.00 so I cashed for fifty big ones!  Next up on my list was my "Day Maker" play of the day in the Santa Anita Oaks.  In 2017 conservative Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella had taken a debut sprint winning filly, Paradise Woods and entered her for her second start in the mile and a sixteenth Grade 2 Santa Anita Oaks.  She was dazzling that day and went on to be a multiple stakes winner.  Fast forward to today's big race.  Mandella had entered Southsay who ALSO was exiting a debut sprint win.  Seen this movie and in my opinion I thought she had an excellent chance to repeat history.  It was a short four-horse field and the filly found herself in fourth behind horses.  But the Claiborne Farm filly was kept on the rail by top rider Flavian Prat.  Into the turn the rail opened and he shot her through.  She burst to the front and was clear.  Bob Baffert's 6/5 favorite launched her rally, but it was too late and the upset was on!  She paid a generous $10.40 and I was cashing for $52!

Back-to-back-to-back wins and the last two at nice payoffs.  I'm having a very good day!  I WANTED Prevalence to be as good as they hype in the Grade 2 Wood in New York, but was not.  Instead it was a Todd Pletcher colt who came flying to nail his stable mate on the wire.  Not all that surprising except the winner went off at odds of 72-1....YOWZA!  In the Grade 1 Madison at Keeneland there was no speed, and I made Mundaye Call the upset call.  Loose on the lead but pressured enough that turning for home she didn't have any response - 4th at 7/2.  Then in the Santa Anita Derby Bob Baffert's "other colt," Medina Spirit was only second best.  Now it was time for the BIG RACE - the Grade 2 Bluegrass at Keeneland where the star attraction of the day was the juvenile champion, unbeaten Essential Quality.  I'd seen him win his 3yo debut in the Gr 3 Southwest and I thought the Brad Cox colt was destined to win and be a probable Kentucky Derby winner.  I made him the BET of the DAY and laid down fifty big ones on him.  All the pundits on air talked about him being a very likely winner BUT if someone were to upset him it would be the speedy Chad Brown colt, Highly Motivated who won a sprint stakes here on BC Saturday.  Sure enough that Into Mischief colt went to the front with the champ tracking him in second.  The second quarter was a slow :25 and change so when heads turned for home the front runner had something left.  Essential Quality was asked to finish the job and the two of them laid it down for a furlong before in the final one hundred yards the juvenile Eclipse Award winner finally edged clear.  He was allowed to go off at more-than-fair 1/2 odds so I cashed for $75 on my bet.

By this time the Florida Panthers game was starting.  Jeff and his family headed back for the west coast and Brad and I - after originally planning to go to the game but had stayed to spend more time with the family, decided to watch the first period of the game before watching the replays.  The final two races on the selection sheet were both from Santa Anita.  In the 9th race, the Grade 2 Royal Heroine going a mile on the turf I liked Charmaine's Mia.  Much like the Aqueduct card, when I'd downloaded the past performances I had to use the DRF morning line odds.  And like the Flightly Lady race, I asked the rhetorical question again here, "How could any form of handicapping ever make this filly 12/1?"  She'd won back to back graded stakes and earned the two best Beyers in the field with matching 99 numbers.  Of the combined 79 lifetime races run by her rivals NONE of them could match those figs.  AND you got top So Cal rider Flavian Prat.  Go figure.  Right to the front and never looked back.  I'd tripled the bet so I cashed for nearly $25 on my ninth win of the day.

After the Panthers sealed their 5-2 win over Columbus it was time to watch the final race of the day, the Echo Eddie Stakes going six and a half furlongs on the main track.  The obvious choice in this state-bred sprint was The Chosen Vron.  He'd debuted in a state-bred MSW at today's 6 1/2 furlongs.  He won for fun that day and earned a Beyer of 86.  Off that Cal-bred maiden score he entered the OPEN Grade 2 San Vicente and chased Bob Baffert's Concert Tour going seven furlongs.  Concert Tour won and came back to win the Grade 2 Rebel and will be a short-priced favorite in next weekend's Grade 1 Arkansas Derby for a million dollars.  The Chosen Vron earned a Beyer of 88, better than his debut figure.  Those two numbers topped all forty-four Beyers earned by his rivals.  And in fact, 41 of the 44 numbers posted by today's other colts had not even hit the 80 plateau on the Beyer scale.  With Santa Anita having a mandatory payout of their Pick-6 today, and this being the closing leg, I was sure most bettors had made 'Vron a single.  I must admit I was a bit concerned when he sat fourth into the turn as Santa Anita almost always plays to speed.  But into the turn he moved up willingly, blew by and finished under Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith as a wrapped up winner.

My second of two "prime time" bets brought back well over $30 as I closed the day a gigantic 10-for-21, which as you saw in the collage at the head of the article is nearly a 50% winning average!

Bluegrass Day Racing Highlights

Sunday April 3rd

I had contemplated if I wanted to handicap the Sunday Keeneland card, but that option was taken away when I looked up the entries to see who was running.....NO ONE!  The track was closed for Easter Sunday.  But in checking the racing headlines I saw that Breeders' Cup Champion Filly & Mare Sprinter, and one of my most favorite fillies, Gamine was running in the Grade 3 Las Flores.  The race was set to go off at 4:35 pm eastern and Kim and I would be at the Panthers hockey game with a 5 pm puck drop.  So I made my bet and we headed to the game.  In the first intermission Kim and I shared a chocolate chip cookie and a diet coke.  When I returned to my seat with the snack I opened the race and watched as Gamine was quickly daylight in front and wired the field as much, MUCH the best.  Didn't make much money, but as I told Kim, "Santa Anita was giving away free money today" and I had added my twelfth winner of the weekend to the record books.