Monday, April 12, 2021

Arkansas Derby Weekend

 April 9 - 11

On Wednesday I left Fort Lauderdale after lunch and flew to visit my Mom, sister and niece in Columbus, Ohio.  The plan for the week was to enjoy family time, play the races over the weekend and to visit with friends in the area.  The flights to Ohio went smoothly and I tried to begin handicapping for the big day Saturday but was too crowded.  Put the laptop away, then realized I could use it as a TV to watch some inflight entertainment.  Got it out but the computer was dead.  Uh oh, that's not good for the week.  Hopefully it's just an issue with battery life?  First thing I did when I got to my Mom's was to plug in the computer and fire it up.....yep, that's it - battery not holding a charge.  So on Thursday I finished all my handicapping for the weekend.  Friday morning I added in the Keeneland races to my handicapping selection sheet for Saturday.  Then at about noon I headed out for Hebron, Kentucky just across the Ohio River in the greater Cincinnati area.  When we were on the Viking Portugal River cruise in November 2019 Kim  an I had arranged to sail with our friends Dennis & Mary whom we'd met on a Rhine River Cruise the previous spring.  But the first night we met Mary Pat & Tom, and Pam & Bob.  We found it interesting that Mary Pat had gone to Miami (Oh) at about the same time I'd gone and Pam & Bob lived very close to Kansas University where our son Jeff had worked for several years.  See our Portugal Adventure HERE.

And the end of the cruise I'd asked everyone if they were interested in traveling together and when they all said yes, enthusiastically I might add, I stopped them and told them that they had better tell me now if they were not serious because I would NOT let this go until we'd traveled together again.  The following January we agreed to meet for nearly a week in the Smoky Mountains in a big log cabin.  But as the time approached and the pandemic was limiting travel the numbers were reduced to just Mary Pat, Tom, Kim and I....and Keith joined us.  See our adventure HERE

Dennis & Mary had his brother's wedding that weekend and Pam's mother fell and needed their help.  So while we were in Gatlinbug  we booked a future cruise for this coming November (2021) to Eastern Europe.  In the end it was only Pam & Bob that will be joining Kim and I .... IF that trip goes.  But one major goal I had for this visit was MP and Tom was to pursue a potential fall trip because just before I left for Ohio my Viking River Cruise to Russia was cancelled.  I had seen that American Cruise Lines were sailing now and was hopeful that we could find something in the late August to September time frame that we could all go.  Dennis & Mary have pretty much backed out of travel (mostly Mary), so when Mary Pat and I settled on a trip to the Pacific Northwest in late September, over Kim's birthday - which will give the six of is something to really celebrate - everyone was very excited to sign on.  While I was with Mary Pat & Tom I talked with Pam & Bob on the phone and immediately the six of us were hooked into my travel agent Nancy Nelson and deposits were made.  We all got a bonus $800 discount for booking so quickly and Kim and I received $500 off for each couple we brought on since we were past guests.  Check out our trip HERE.  Had a wonderful grilled chicken dinner (with vegetables) on the deck with the Cincy couple and then headed back to my Mom's.


When I returned I checked out the racing results for the first day of the weekend.  My pick in the Friday opener scratched.  In the second my runner was a fair 3/1 but ran around the track in sixth the entire trip.  I had a Shug McGaughey runner who promised to be a big price in the third and he was 18/1.  Up close in fourth most of the way, enough to give me a glimmer of hope before finishing 6th as well.  THe fifth was an entry level allowance and I liked a Chad Brown trained, Peter Brant owned, Irad Ortiz ridden filly.  So did everyone else.....but was a fading sixth at 1-2 odds after swooping up to second at the top of the stretch.  WOW.  In the sixth I recognized the Todd Pletcher filly Spice Is Nice.  Last winter the $1 Million sales grad had been sensational in her debut and I made her my top pick in both the Grade 2 Davona Dale and Grade 2 GP Oaks, but she didn't run to her favored odds.  Later in the summer she won an allowance event, like this and at this distance of a mile and a sixteenth - albeit around one turn at Belmont - then was sent to the Grade 1 Alabama where she was outrun.  Back to allowance company and if she ran to her non-stakes tries she'd win.  Got a perfect tracking trip to the top of the short stretch, briefly dueled with the front runner and then pulled clear late in the shadow of the first finish line.

And I had the first winner of the week.  Two stakes races remained on the card and in the first, a 3yo turf sprint, my pick scratched and in the Grade 1 Maker's Mark Mile I was fifth at 5/2 when Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz DID score for Peter Brant, and at a nice 7/2 price.  Sigh....zigging when I should have been zagging.  That's ok, I got many picks tomorrow!

Saturday April 10:  Arkansas Derby Day

Today I needed to make the first several plays online because we were headed up to Delaware and the campus of Ohio Wesleyan where my most favorite niece was throwing the hammer and discus in a competition against three other colleges.  Ended up being out of the house, away from the races for the majority of the day.  But not to worry, through the wonder of technology I was able to watch and wager on my phone using the 1stBet/Xpressbet app.  My first selection was a maiden sprint from Oaklawn.  I went off as the 2/1 second choice...pressed the pace to the top of the far turn and faded away to the back of the pack.  Next up was the Keeneland opener and I asked the rhetorical question, "when have you seem me put a horse on top that earned a last-out Beyer of 2, yes TWO, and was beaten by 45 lengths in their last.  But today Got Hammered was coming off a long layoff for trainer Larry Rivelli - a specialty of his; Irad Ortiz was up; and on his "good day" Got Hammered would win.  Sent off as the short priced 3/2 favorite he led to the far turn, then stopped and faded to a well-beaten fifth.  Next up was second from Hot Springs and Box of Chocolates had been 4/1 in the program for this starter allowance.  I mentioned in my analysis that MAYBE we should bet win-place-show because he'd not won in almost two years and during that 19 race skid he'd hit the board in ten of them.  The crowd took a very optimistic view and sent him off as the even money favorite.  Made a bid through the turn, but then hung.  I chuckled out loud as I watch him fail to want to win and remembered my comments, and told myself, "I KNEW I should have bet across the board!"  But even if I'd bet $2 across the board the $6 investment would have only returned $5.  I passed the second at Keeneland and when I saw who the winner was I shook my head because I "SHOULD" have made a hunch bet.  On paper Zanesville was my second choice.  This was "significant" because I AM in Ohio this weekend I'd noted in my analysis, and my first real serious girlfriend had lived in Zanesville.  The Horse Racing gods trying to tell me something?  I ignored the opportunity and Zanesville won and paid $7.60.  Sigh...... I really thought I had my first winner in the next at Oakland.  Sianara was making her third career start and the two Beyers she'd earned in her first two starts were a pole faster than what anyone else had earned....though noting these were lightly raced three-year-olds.  Easily cleared from the rail and was in front my two lengths heading into the turn as the prohibitive 2/5 favorite.  The lead was down to less than a length as heads turned for home and I "knew" she'd spurt away to win for fun now.....but no.  Faded to fourth.  WOW.  The day is NOT going the way I'd envisioned it.  BUT I told myself as we all got in the car to grab some lunch,   I had one more runner heading to the post before a break of about an hour where I had back-to-back "PASS" races, so the timing for lunch was ideal.  This was a MSW event for 3 and up and Turnagain Tide had debuted in what had turned out to be a KEY race.  The winner had come back to win vs. winners and was the favorite in a Grade 2 where he was third, then most recently won Grade 1 Santa Anita Big 'Cap.  The runner-up from the race had come back to win, then took an allowance at Aqueduct before winning again at Oaklawn as my BET of the Day.  Would 'Tide be ready off the shelf for trainer Brad Cox?  The 2nd best of 104 works told me YES in a big way, and jockey Irad Ortiz on today sealed the deal.  Dueled into the lane from the gate but edged clear in the final stages of the stretch.

Tripled the bet so I was able to cash for nearly $25 and suddenly I almost even on the day!  Gotta love racing.  Got back from lunch and in the fifth at Oaklawn Impossible Task went off at 2/1.  Right to the front and looked long gone first off the claim for John Sadler, but on the far turn was collared and faded to the back of the field.  Conversely, minutest later West Will Power sat just off the pace in Keeneland's sixth.  Took over willingly entering the far turn and ran away as TONS the best.  He was, as I'd hoped in my analysis the "good version" of 'Will Power.  Only had the minimum as I wasn't convinced he was consistent AND Javier Castellano was on board.  But hey....a win is a win.

Was disappointed when Frank's Rockette was only 2nd best in Oaklawn's Carousel Stakes.  Next on the list was the Grade 3 Ben Ali going nine furlongs at Keeneland.  There were several reasons I not only went with Silver Dust, who was listed as the second choice in the program, but I did NOT trust the favorite.  The one question I wondered about was why off the layoff trainer Brett Calhoun had run him on the turf, but I dismissed that as a prep for today.  Prior to that you could toss his try in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile where Knicks Go had buried the field.  And prior to that he ran very well in graded company behind multiple stakes winners By My Standards, Owendale, and Tom's d'Etat.  Now the four prior to that had been three wins and a neck 2nd - ALL in graded events.  He looked a LOT more trustworthy than Night Ops who I thought was overrated, but got Castellano up.  Silver Dust pressed the leader from the opening bell to the top of the lane, put his head in front and within a couple of strides all five of the runners were lined up across the track within a neck of each other.  But Silver Dust never gave in nor was he headed.  And when the prices were announced he became, officially, the "DAY MAKER" of the day.  Paid a whopping $11.20 and with my triple investment I cashed for over $80, making today a profitable day regardless of how the rest of the afternoon's events turned out.  WHOOO HOOOOO.


I was nearly certain I had a winner in Keeneland's Giant Causeway Stakes, a five furlong turf sprint.  Into Mystic was clear on an easy lead into the stretch until a nearly 9/1 off-the-pace runner blew by.  Second again.  Sigh.....The next stakes at Keeneland was the co-featured Lexington which offered Kentucky Derby points.  On paper Proxy just looked so much the best horse.  His last three starts had earned Beyer figures that beat all thirty-six combined lifetime starts of today's rivals.  And as I wrote, I'd grant you that they MIGHT be suspicious since none were earned in victory.  But he'd been a close second in BOTH the Grade 3 Lecomte three back and the Gr 2 Risen Star two back before running a solid fourth in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby....and remember that figure also beat all the rest of the numbers on the page.  But on the far turn he was just going nowhere and ended up an even fourth while the winner paid a whopping $38.40.  With the 20/1 underneath the exacta returned $438.20 for a two dollar bet.  WOW.  The next race at Oaklawn was an allowance event that carried a huge $105K purse.  I'll be the first to admit that one of the reasons I liked my top pick was his name.  When I worked at Cypress Bay, one of my best gal-pals was the very attractive office manager, Shasha Hilbon.  We worked together for nine years on every graduation and she was always a great friend to me.  She was the one that helped me find my current sports car which I love to death.  Well, the top choice in this six furlong sprint was named Shashashakemeup!  I'd bet him before and he'd won for me.  So on name alone I wanted to bet him but he looked best on paper as well.  As the field swung into the far turn the leader, who was the 2/1 second choice was cruising on a daylight lead and he truly had not gone overly fast.  But Shasha was sitting near the back entering the turn.  But then you could see my top pick was gathering momentum while picking off horses through the turn.  At about the furlong marker you could tell the front runner was tiring and Shasha was running two strides for every one of the leader.  Just a matter of time as he blew by to score!  I'd tripled my bet as I scored with Shasha again!

The next at Oaklawn was the $400K Oaklawn Mile.  I felt that if By My Standards ran his top race he would be a clear winner.  He'd won six of eight last year with his two losses being best-of-the-rest 2nd behind two multiple graded stakes winner in a Gr 1 and a Gr 2.  But his last two, in the Gr 1 BC Classic and Gr 1 Clark were nothing to write home about.  Coming off the bench he had sharp works.  My main question was the one mile distance as I thought he'd be better at 8 1/2 furlong or the full mile and an eighth.  He was in fifth into the turn while the favorite was trapped behind horses on the rail.  Swung out for a clear run and then the rail opened like the parting of the Red Sea.  Still, By My Standards was inching closer and closer.....oh this is going to be CLOSE......PHOTO FINISH!  Honestly at first glance live I thought "maybe" I MIGHT have won.  The replay, oh I might have lost....I'd be happy with a dead heat.  Then the picture came up......

#6 By My Standards gets the nose down first!

OH BOY that was close, but I'm cashing for nearly $35 on another stakes winner.  I missed in the featured Grade 1 Jenny Wiley on the turf at Keeneland when the winner went wire to wire and I chased in second all the way around.  Disappointed when both Whitmore in the Grade 3 Count Fleet at Oaklawn and then Concert Tour in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby failed to score, the latter as the prohibitive 2/5 favorite.    The final win of the day came in the Keeneland finale when Triple Crown winner Justify's half brother, Stage Raider was much, MUCH the best as he drew off by a whopping near eleven lengths.  Cashed for nearly $30 on my sixth winner of the afternoon.


Arkansas Derby Weekend Racing Highlights

On Sunday I worked on the video highlights and then looked at the entries for today.  Did I see anyone who just looked by name and odds as a clear cut winner to end the week with a winning score.  That came in the fourth where Todd Pletcher's Champagne Salute was exiting a race where the winner had come back to run 2nd in the Grade 1 Ashland.  The field was scratched down to four runners and he looked like an easy winner into the lane but then the longest priced runner came to him and the stretch duel was on.....but he was good enough and I ended the week with another victory.

Then on Monday to top off the weekend I met with one of my most very favorite high school gal-pals, Gayla.  Had a long lunch and a big glass of wine as we shared stories about what we'd been going through over the last year and change.  A great trip, great family time, great friends, and good racing!


And on the social media front....welcomed back "my girl" Lauren Pastrana to the anchor desk :)



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