Opening Weekend At Keeneland
April 2 - 3
It was Easter weekend and both my boys and their families were in town for the holiday as the new racing season began. Last year's Keeneland Spring Meet was canceled by the pandemic and they ran an abbreviated five day meet in July before going back to their normal Fall Meet last October. It was announced about a month ago that they would allow limited fans but you had to enter a lottery. Keith and I tried to get in for the second weekend but to no avail. I originally planned only to plan on Saturday, but it was Opening Day on Friday instead of on Wednesday and I was done with all my wrap-up from the Gulfstream Championship Meet by Wednesday morning so I decided to play. the card. The first story of the spring concerns a loss. Every spring when Gulfstream moves to their Spring/Summer Meet and the "big horses" move out, at the Keeneland meet trainer Wesley Ward unveils his two-year-olds and they nearly all win. So last year when there wasn't a Keeneland spring, they ran at Gulfstream and he didn't have nearly the same kind of success. So I was a bit leery about what would happen this spring. But in the opener it was a MSW for two-year-olds and the favorite was a Ward firster. The stats provided by the Keeneland analyst showed that since Keeneland has returned to dirt several years ago there have been 51 2yo maiden sprints and Ward has won TWENTY-NINE of them. One guy has seven wins and no one else has more than two. Dream Fly had not one but two bullet works and had lured excellent speed rider Joel Rosario. As they loaded into the gate the TVG analysts remarked about the difficulty of the rail draw - uh, oh....I'd missed that with there being an entry. Well, trust in Ward and Rosario, right. Broke slowly and rallied for second behind the 9/5 second choice who wired the field for the trainer who had seven 2yo wins. Sigh....Ran third, sixth and second again in my next three picks before coming to the featured Grade 3 Transylvania for 3yo colts. I preferred Shug McGaughey's Scarlett Sky over the post-time favorite who'd won the BC Juvenile Turf here last fall. 'Sky had made his 3yo debut at Gulfstream in an allowance event and had won with a figure faster than his 2yo top. That's always a good sign. In his next, his most recent, he ran in the Palm Beach Stakes and that was the key for me. First, the race had been oddly run as the front runner sped off by more than a dozen into the far turn forcing the pressers, like Scarlett Sky to move earlier to reel him in. Caught the leader but was nailed on the wire. A more conventional pace scenario and maybe he wins. Second, the winner of the race was the highly regarded Bill Mott colt who was coming in off a maiden win and still was the favorite in the Palm Beach. And then Annex had come back to win the Cutler Bay last Saturday on the Florida Derby Day undercard as my BET of the Day. All these things pointed out Scarlett Sky to be my top choice. Was wondering if it was just "that kind of day" as the field hit the far turn and he was dead last, separated from the field by open lengths, and the BC winner had taken the front. He began to gather momentum but was forced widest of all and as the field hit the furlong pole he was still so wide and far back that even his shadow wasn't in the television screen. But inside the final 16th he came roaring down the middle of the course to win going away!
Cashed for well over $50 and I finished the day nearly even. I'm ok with that! Meanwhile Jeff had played all day and after being up early finished the day down a bit.
Super Stakes Saturday - April 3rd
Jeff had given me $100 to play at the Sunrise Simulcast Center on Friday and he used his remaining funds as a deposit to play today. While he and I played and watched on Friday Brad had hung out with us with some interest, which is typical of his interest in the racing game. But this morning he asked me about the races and I told him I felt pretty good about my picks today and he asked, "If I give you $100 can you spread the money around on your picks?" I told him yes, but that I preferred to explain my picks and he choose where to put his money and how much. After a quick run through he decided to play $10 each on my three big bets. Then he'd play only $2 on my three minimum plays. And $5 on all the rest. That put him at $111 and I told him that he was nearly certain to win the "extra" $11 somewhere during the day. He transferred the money over, I deposited it and made all his bets. As the day started we posed for a "Three Boys" photo .....
I ran 2nd at 2/1 in the first race at Keeneland. In the third at Aqueduct it was a Maiden Special for 3yo and I liked Todd Pletcher's Great Workout. He actually had great workouts for his debut and he had lured Irad Ortiz who was now in New York. On Friday as we watched I remarked to the boys on more than one occasion that until about a year and a half ago NEVER was leaving the gate an issue with any of my runners. But since then I could not tell them how many times the gates opened and I was immediately at the rear of the field. And so it was with the favored Great Workout. Ortiz moved him up on the far turn, swung wide into the lane but with a furlong to go he still was about half a dozen behind but beginning to run on. Running out of time the front runner began to noticeably tire.....closing, PHOTO FINISH. Oh so close but I was pretty sure I'd won - and I did.
Of course Brad enjoyed winning his first bet as well! The next race from New York was the first of their many stakes on Wood Memorial Day, the NY version of the Florida Derby. This was the Grade 3 Bayshore at seven furlongs for three-year-olds. The only question for me was would Saffie Joseph's Drain The Clock be at full strength after stretching out last time in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth. He'd made the lead, was clear into mid-stretch before then-Kentucky Derby favorite Greatest Honour came flying by from the back to catch him late, 'Clock was well clear of the field for 2nd. Irad Ortiz was up and if right, this colt would be an easy, odds-on winner. Right away I knew I had the right one. He burst out of the gate and then the fractions went up, only :47.4 for the half....wow, if he'd run a :45 half he'd have won for fun. I knew he would have plenty for the stretch and he lengthened his margin to the sixteenth pole before Irad wrapped up on him.
Tripled the bet on my second win of the day, both from New York. Missed the next three - in a Keeneland allowance I was pinned inside thru the turn and didn't have anywhere to run until too late when fourth at 3/1. Then off slowly and showed little when 9th at 2/1. Then in my first bet at Santa Anita - where it is THEIR Santa Anita Derby Day - in the second, a starter allowance I led every step of the way to the final jump when 2nd at 9/5. The sixth at Aqueduct was the Grade 1 $300K Carter Handicap going seven furlongs. I made the remark in my analysis that it just goes to show how much the NYRA circuit has fallen when a Grade 1 on a big Saturday, with a purse of $300 could only lure five runners. And honestly, none of them are superstars. And I also wrote in my analysis that I could easily make a case for all five in here. BUT rather than pass the race I was going with the "what have you done for me lately" approach. While all five had run big numbers and won stakes races, only Mischievous Alex had recent big numbers and stakes wins. His two big wins, which I'd seen at Gulfstream - and I'd bet him both days - had been visually impressive victories that both earned big numbers (103-99). And while you could legitimately ask, "but who did he beat," if he ran back to either of those figures, then someone would have to pop up with a monster back-figure effort that did not seem likely here today. Tracked the pace to the top of the stretch, moved effortlessly to the lead under, you guessed it - Irad Ortiz - then ran away as much, MUCH the best. Three wins from seven races and ironically ALL in New York.
Ran third in the Grade 2 Appalachian for three-year-olds at Keeneland when nobody ran with the Pletcher front runner and he wired the field in hand. The seventh at Aqueduct was the second of my two "best bets" on the card, and this was an allowance on the turf (yes, grass racing has returned to New York!) for older, a non-winners of one. When I handicapped the NY card I used the DRF early morning line, and it's almost always way out of line. So I began my analysis with a rhetorical question..... "Raise your hand if anyone, ANYONE out there believes that a Chad Brown Euro import from the barn of international owner Peter Brant, will make her first start in North America at the listed 12/1 odds after earning a second and two thirds in Group 3 races and a third in a Group 1? Anyone?" Interestingly no one answered or raised their hand. When the program odds came out for Flightly Lady she was the 7/5 morning line choice. Irad, yes Irad again, had her fourth saving ground while under patient handling to the top of the lane. Got her into the clear, asked for run and she ran by the leaders to give me my fourth winner of the day - ALL from the Empire State!
Missed three in a row following that nice win. Hidden Scroll has always been an enigma since his scintillating win in his debut on the undercard of the 2019 Pegasus World Cup. Had moved to the Brad Cox barn and won first time for him in allowance company, so I went with the promise he'd once held. Seventh at 2/1. A Bob Baffert firster was a "buzz horse" and went off at 1/2, only to be outrun by his stable mate under jockey John Velazquez. And in the third race of the sequence, in the Grade 2 Shakertown, a turf sprint at Keeneland, my top choice, Imprimis (who's scored my 9,000th win on January 1) got the perfect trip, hit the front but was nailed in a nail-biting photo finish. Interesting after the race his trainer was livid with the new rules disallowing Lasix for horses in stakes events as this veteran winner was visibly bleeding out of both nostrils. Sad. Speaking of Santa Anita.....in the previous race Jeff was watching the Santa Anita board and saw Johnny V was on a horse that was 17/1 Without any handicapping he put $10 across the board.......
Unbelievable - cashed for $260 and he'd hit several exactas to put him well into the profit zone for the day as we hit the mid-way point of the day. Next up for me was the NY-version of the prep for the Kentucky Oaks, the Grade 3 Gazelle. Two things struck me right away - first, Chad Brown's filly, Search Results, was unbeaten with Irad Ortiz up and would OBVIOUSLY be the favorite. Second, the remainder of the field was hardly "Kentucky Oaks-worthy" on paper at least. Three in the field had raced strictly on turf prior to this nine furlong dirt test; another had raced exclusively on synthetic. And the other three had no stakes experience. Search Results had been ridden by Irad Ortiz in her debut and he handled her patiently off the speed, then blew by to win going away. Last time out under Javier Castellano - who is simply difficult to figure these days - Search Results went a one-turn mile in the Busher Stakes, the prep for this. Maybe it was because she was coming off a layoff and stretching out, or maybe not, but regardless, Castellano put her on the lead and she just held on to wire the field. Back to Ortiz was ideal in my mind as I figured she'd sit off the pace as she stretched around two turns and to this additional furlong distance. She broke sharply and sat just off the front runner while well in hand to the far turn. Ortiz didn't ask her but she glided up to put a head in front on the turn and when they hit the top of the lane he did ask and she took off. Quickly in front by four or five she strode out evenly to the lane without having to give her absolute best to win as the prohibitive favorite. FIVE WINS, and ALL FIVE in New York! What are the odds?
On the Keeneland stakes-laden card I had two picks that I felt very strongly about. In the Bluegrass, the featured event for the Kentucky Derby hopefuls I "knew" who was going to win barring a major problem. But in the Grade 1 Ashland, next up for me, it was more about what I BELIEVED to be the talent and potential of Todd Pletcher's filly, Malathaat. She had lured a $1 Million sales bid from Shadwell Stables at the sales ring and that spoke volumes to me. Shadwell is an international racing operation with breeding facilities all over the world where they can breed their OWN BEST to their OWN BEST. No need to go to the sales, ring, but here they did. Also, when she'd stretched out to nine furlongs in her third start as a 2yo in December in the Grade 2 Demoiselle I had made her the Best of the Day on that Claiming Crown Saturday. As I watched TVG that afternoon, all the on-air handicappers talked about how with the rail she looked to not only be the best filly, but the lone speed. But then the gates opened and she was off slowly and then shut off by not one but two rivals. On the far turn she was spinning her wheels and not gaining at all. But once clear in the lane she closed with a fury and won going away. I'd been duly impressed. Going this 8 1/2 furlong distance I thought she'd sit an up close trip, if not on the lead, and then accelerate to the wire. Also, I believed - without any evidence - that the connections had pointed her for the Kentucky Oaks and thought she'd be talented enough to win this lone prep race to get enough points to get in for the BIG Dance. I made her a "prime time play," one of only two on the day. Breaking from post five of six, with a fairly quick run to the first turn, she broke cleanly but not quickly. Joel Rosario on board today let her settle in fourth, in the clear about four off the leaders and she remained there to the far turn. With the short stretch to the first finish line he asked for run on the turn and she began to inhale the runners in front of her. As they hit the top of the lane a stalker had burst to the front and was four in front. But Malathaat was in full stride and going two for every one of the leader. In a nine furlong race and/or with a full stretch to work with she wins for fun, but with the short stretch Rosario timed it perfectly to be JUST up in the shadow of the wire.
Paid a solid $5.00 so I cashed for fifty big ones! Next up on my list was my "Day Maker" play of the day in the Santa Anita Oaks. In 2017 conservative Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella had taken a debut sprint winning filly, Paradise Woods and entered her for her second start in the mile and a sixteenth Grade 2 Santa Anita Oaks. She was dazzling that day and went on to be a multiple stakes winner. Fast forward to today's big race. Mandella had entered Southsay who ALSO was exiting a debut sprint win. Seen this movie and in my opinion I thought she had an excellent chance to repeat history. It was a short four-horse field and the filly found herself in fourth behind horses. But the Claiborne Farm filly was kept on the rail by top rider Flavian Prat. Into the turn the rail opened and he shot her through. She burst to the front and was clear. Bob Baffert's 6/5 favorite launched her rally, but it was too late and the upset was on! She paid a generous $10.40 and I was cashing for $52!
Back-to-back-to-back wins and the last two at nice payoffs. I'm having a very good day! I WANTED Prevalence to be as good as they hype in the Grade 2 Wood in New York, but was not. Instead it was a Todd Pletcher colt who came flying to nail his stable mate on the wire. Not all that surprising except the winner went off at odds of 72-1....YOWZA! In the Grade 1 Madison at Keeneland there was no speed, and I made Mundaye Call the upset call. Loose on the lead but pressured enough that turning for home she didn't have any response - 4th at 7/2. Then in the Santa Anita Derby Bob Baffert's "other colt," Medina Spirit was only second best. Now it was time for the BIG RACE - the Grade 2 Bluegrass at Keeneland where the star attraction of the day was the juvenile champion, unbeaten Essential Quality. I'd seen him win his 3yo debut in the Gr 3 Southwest and I thought the Brad Cox colt was destined to win and be a probable Kentucky Derby winner. I made him the BET of the DAY and laid down fifty big ones on him. All the pundits on air talked about him being a very likely winner BUT if someone were to upset him it would be the speedy Chad Brown colt, Highly Motivated who won a sprint stakes here on BC Saturday. Sure enough that Into Mischief colt went to the front with the champ tracking him in second. The second quarter was a slow :25 and change so when heads turned for home the front runner had something left. Essential Quality was asked to finish the job and the two of them laid it down for a furlong before in the final one hundred yards the juvenile Eclipse Award winner finally edged clear. He was allowed to go off at more-than-fair 1/2 odds so I cashed for $75 on my bet.
By this time the Florida Panthers game was starting. Jeff and his family headed back for the west coast and Brad and I - after originally planning to go to the game but had stayed to spend more time with the family, decided to watch the first period of the game before watching the replays. The final two races on the selection sheet were both from Santa Anita. In the 9th race, the Grade 2 Royal Heroine going a mile on the turf I liked Charmaine's Mia. Much like the Aqueduct card, when I'd downloaded the past performances I had to use the DRF morning line odds. And like the Flightly Lady race, I asked the rhetorical question again here, "How could any form of handicapping ever make this filly 12/1?" She'd won back to back graded stakes and earned the two best Beyers in the field with matching 99 numbers. Of the combined 79 lifetime races run by her rivals NONE of them could match those figs. AND you got top So Cal rider Flavian Prat. Go figure. Right to the front and never looked back. I'd tripled the bet so I cashed for nearly $25 on my ninth win of the day.
After the Panthers sealed their 5-2 win over Columbus it was time to watch the final race of the day, the Echo Eddie Stakes going six and a half furlongs on the main track. The obvious choice in this state-bred sprint was The Chosen Vron. He'd debuted in a state-bred MSW at today's 6 1/2 furlongs. He won for fun that day and earned a Beyer of 86. Off that Cal-bred maiden score he entered the OPEN Grade 2 San Vicente and chased Bob Baffert's Concert Tour going seven furlongs. Concert Tour won and came back to win the Grade 2 Rebel and will be a short-priced favorite in next weekend's Grade 1 Arkansas Derby for a million dollars. The Chosen Vron earned a Beyer of 88, better than his debut figure. Those two numbers topped all forty-four Beyers earned by his rivals. And in fact, 41 of the 44 numbers posted by today's other colts had not even hit the 80 plateau on the Beyer scale. With Santa Anita having a mandatory payout of their Pick-6 today, and this being the closing leg, I was sure most bettors had made 'Vron a single. I must admit I was a bit concerned when he sat fourth into the turn as Santa Anita almost always plays to speed. But into the turn he moved up willingly, blew by and finished under Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith as a wrapped up winner.
My second of two "prime time" bets brought back well over $30 as I closed the day a gigantic 10-for-21, which as you saw in the collage at the head of the article is nearly a 50% winning average!
Bluegrass Day Racing Highlights
Sunday April 3rd
I had contemplated if I wanted to handicap the Sunday Keeneland card, but that option was taken away when I looked up the entries to see who was running.....NO ONE! The track was closed for Easter Sunday. But in checking the racing headlines I saw that Breeders' Cup Champion Filly & Mare Sprinter, and one of my most favorite fillies, Gamine was running in the Grade 3 Las Flores. The race was set to go off at 4:35 pm eastern and Kim and I would be at the Panthers hockey game with a 5 pm puck drop. So I made my bet and we headed to the game. In the first intermission Kim and I shared a chocolate chip cookie and a diet coke. When I returned to my seat with the snack I opened the race and watched as Gamine was quickly daylight in front and wired the field as much, MUCH the best. Didn't make much money, but as I told Kim, "Santa Anita was giving away free money today" and I had added my twelfth winner of the weekend to the record books.
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