April 12 - 13
It just goes to show, again, that ANY day you go racing you can cash tickets. Might be a two-lifetime claiming event over sloppy going on a Friday or a Grade 1 $1.25 Million stakes. If you've got the winner, you get paid regardless! I stayed away from the races until Friday when Keeneland ran a couple of stakes races, and then I played on Saturday at Keeneland, Laurel, and Oaklawn where all three had stakes including the national feature, the Gr 1 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn. The Wednesday and Thursday cards at Keeneland had not appealed to me, no big races on the schedule but on Friday there were two stakes events, and I opted to handicap the card and play. Especially because Kim was taking her Mom to Orlando to visit the grandson and his parents. In the opener it looked wide open but I thougth Figuereti had a good enough chance to win. Second best at 9/5. In the second race I liked Sharp Shot in a maiden claiming sprint. He was the only MSW class dropper and I noted in my analysis to "watch the board for clues." When he was getting a LOT of attention I upped the bet. Right to the front, appeared to be collared at the top of the lane, but rebroke and widened the margin to the wire!
The third was a nine furlong, second level allowance. I thought only one of the seven would be a surprise but I did like Pyrenees who was lightly raced and improving. He'd come off a year layoff to win at the FG with a career best 80 Beyer, then upped that with an 88 beating an allowance field. Off for three months to recover he'd posted six solid works including a bullet move. Much like Sharp Shot he went right to the front, was challenged turning for home and drew clear through the lane. Two in a row!
The fourth was a 2-lifetime claiming event going seven furlongs. And were it NOT a 2L claiming event, albeit an $80K - not $8K claimer - I might have made Harrodsburg a "prime time" play if not a "BET of the Day" kind of wager. He was lightly raced and his last three figures were 87-99-87. He was dropping in for a first time tag and his ten rivals lifetime best figures saw eight a pole slower and the two that had "competitive" figures had been earned last June and last February. Not a good chance those figures get reproduced today. Cleared the field in the first few jumps by daylight and was long, LONG gone. Never in doubt with my triple investment on board.....three in a row with the BEST Bet of the Weekend coming up!
Races 5 and 7 came off the turf and not only did my selections scratch but on the off-going I didn't like anyone. Races 6 and 8 were already "PASS" events for me, so that brought us to Race 9, the featured Grade 1 Maker's Mark Mile. You COULD debate if Master of The Seas was a vulnerable favorite, but for me he was a MOST legitimate favorite. He'd not been seen since November so there was the layoff and he was based in Europe so he had to make the trip. But that's about it. As I noted, I would find it REALLY hard to believe that international trainer Charlie Appleby would pick a Grade 1, $600K race across the ocean as a "get one him in" kind of prep race. Right? On top of that the last FOUR times he'd run fresh he'd won. On top of THAT....the last four times regular Euro rider William Buick had ridden him at a mile, he'd won - including the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile and the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Mile. Buick had the champion perfectly positioned along the rail into the far turn and it was clear to me watching the race that the horse was ready to go, but had no place to run. Decision time as heads turned for home and the leader drifted off the rail as they often do and Buick shot the champ through. Like a shot he accelerated to the front and widened through the final furlong as a much the best winner. That he went off at 3/5 odds I though was immensely generous as I cashed for over $50 to close out a wonderful 4-for-5 afternoon of handicapping!
Saturday's racing included three venues holding stakes events on my selection sheet. Not only was Keeneland running a series of stakes, but Laurel had multiple listed stakes for the local upper echelon of runners, but the highlight - to me - was the Apple Blossom card at Oaklawn. I've been lucky enough to visit Oaklawn twice, and in those seasons the Apple Blossom was run on Friday with the Arkansas Derby run on Saturday. I'd made both Apple Blossom selections the "Bet of the Day" and they'd both won! In 2015 Untappable - who would go on to win the Kentucky Oaks with my biggest win bet ever ($200) and in 2017 with Stellar Wind.
The day started with a 4th and a 3rd at 5/2 odds, but with minimum plays. A two-lifetime claiming event at Oaklawn was their opening event and I liked Savage Darling. First he was lightly raced with only four starts. The par for this level of racing was a mediocre 60 BSF, but he was the ONLY runner in the field who'd met that standard. Two back he "refused to start" and didn't run, the other three produced Beyers of 71, 63, and 63. Good enough for me! After getting away slowly he tracked the pace on the rail while fifth turning for home. Jockey Cristian Torres was looking for a seam when the rail opened, he ducked inside and shot through to the wire.
Ran fourth at Keeneland before it was time for the first stakes event at Laurel, the Heavenly Cause Stakes going a one-turn mile. Intrepid Dreamer was the pick, and as I noted, at some point she won't deliver but in her six career starts she's won five times, including last time out (as my pick) off a sixteen month layoff at even money at this same one-turn mile here. Tracked the 9/5 leader into the turn and it looked to me like the rider was having to ask her to be interested. But once they straightened away she began to gain on the leader. Caught her in mid-stretch and edged clear through the final 16th of a mile.
Over the next 90 minutes I missed five races, running second, third twice and off the board twice, two of which with short odds favorites. In Oaklawn's sixth, Corporal was looking to break his maiden in his second start. The expensive, $1.15 Million colt has been 3/5 on debut at the Fair Grounds. The son of champion Gun Runner broke slowly and just jogged around the track. Today he'd try two turns. It was all about his promise, not what he'd shown. Tracked the leader into the far turn, cruised to the front and looked long gone but the closers were coming! Dug down and held on gamely.
The final race before I needed to head out was the Primonetta Stakes at Laurel. Disco Ebo, I thought, would clear the field and was going to wire this group. She'd battled from the gate last time out in the much deeper Grade 3 Barbara Fritchie into the lane, emerged with the lead to win the battle. But she got closed down by the late runners on a day where the track played to closers. IF she got loose today, I thought it was all over but the shouting. Right to the front, they came after her in the lane but she would not yield and was clear by a length on the wire with my triple investment on my second straight stakes winner in Maryland.
At this point in the afternoon it was time to head out to the Panthers hockey game. With Kim gone to Orlando I was meeting up with my buddy Enzo and his family. He was able to bring two of his boys while he sat with me in Kim's regular seat. We'd also shared our lower bowl tickets (courtesy of Brad and Lauren) on Tuesday with Enzo and his crew. It was a significant game because if we won (or lost in overtime we'd seal home-ice advantage for the first round of the playoffs). It was an exciting finish as we won in overtime on Sam Rinehart's amazing 55th goal of the year with just 1:02 left in the additional period.
As I'd left for the game I set the DVR to record the FanDuel racing broadcast so I could watch the remaining eight races on my selection sheet run on the big screen. In Keeneland's Grade 3 Giant's Causeway, going five and a half furlongs on the turf, and I thought Christophe Clement's Roses For Debra was a likely winner. Eleven career starts had produced seven wins! But wait.....filter out the non-turf starts, and filter the last two graded tries against the boys. You're left with four turf sprints against fillies & mares: a nw2x allowance at Pimlico: WIN / a nw3x allowance at Belmont: WIN / Saratoga's Grade 3 Caress Stakes: WIN / and Saratoga's Smart N Fancy Stakes: WIN. Oh. Patiently sat in fifth behind a very quick pace through the far turn. Swung into the clear and blew by the field to win going away for WIN #5 on the day.
After a nondescript 7th, at 7/1 at Laurel - which I had to watch on the computer because FanDuel had stopped broadcasting the Maryland card, go figure, it was time for the Grade 3 Count Fleet sprint at Oaklawn. At first glance there looked to be multiple front runners in the field which would set the race up for a closer like, multiple stakes winner Tejano Twist. But Skelly looked to be way too fast for the other front runners, and that he was listed as the prohibitive even money favorite here was a testament as to how good he probably was. He'd won seven in a row, including two in a row here - as my top choice - before shipping to Saudi Arabia to run on Saudi Cup Night in the $1.5 Million Group 3 Riyad Dirt Sprint where he was a sharp second. The layoff and the long trip were a concern, especially if he got pressure early, but still, looked way too good for these. The gates opened and he broke near the back. Hustled to the front and when the teletimer clicked off at :21 and change you know with that start he'd run about a :20 opening quarter. Almost certain to tire late, right? Held a daylight lead into the lane and when the stalkers and closers kicked in, he kicked away to win as a much the best favorite carrying my triple investment on board.
Missed at 4/5 in the Laurel final stakes event of the day (6th) and ran 2nd as the 8/5 favorite in Keeneland's Grade 1 Jenny Wiley behind a longshot wire-to-wire winner. The Grade 3 Lexington at Keeneland was the last chance to earn Kentucky Derby points and I liked The Wine Steward to win. Made a threatening move on the front runner turning into the short stretch, but was only second best. BUT.....TwinSpires had offered a "Bet Back" if you ran 2nd or 3rd in today's Grade 3 Giant's Causeway and this race, so I "cashed" my ticket :) The Keeneland finale was an entry level allowance on the turf. Royal Majesty was a Euro import under the care of Bill Mott. First start in North America, like so many Euros, produced a WIN. For his first try against winners he again tried to rally but came up short. I was more than willing to draw a line through that race, why? First, it was in stakes company. And second the splits had been GLACIAL: :25.2 for the opening quarter and :50.2 for the half. No chance for a closer. In spite that he finished with a rush in a field best :21.9 final fraction. That kind of time for a quarter mile would be regarded as sizzling in an OPENING quarter of a SPRINT, much less the final fraction of a route race. Sat in the back third to the final turn, moved up the rail, split rivals and rallied down the outside to win going away at a more than generous 3/1 price. Wish I'd had more on board that one!
The last race on my sheet was the national feature, the Grade 1 Apple Blossom. Much like the early Gr 3 Count Fleet there appeared on paper to be multiple front runners. But Bob Baffert is just ultra-deadly shipping into Hot Springs and he was sending multiple Gr 1 winner Adare Manor here today. If she ran to her numbers I thought she'd be the "speed of the speed." Right to the front out of the gate and by the time they hit the first turn she was multiple lengths in front. For all intents and purposes the race was over. In hand all the way around the track to close out the day in a big way!
For the two days, my Weekend's Totals were: 12-for-25....that's a 48% WIN average my friends, and a flat bet profit resulting in a $2.44 ROI. You can't ask for much better than that!
Social Media this week......
I have to say starting off here, first having my social media pals is important to me because I don't have hardly any "real life" friends that I interact with frequently. And if you were asking ME I would say that Lauren Pastrana of CBS-Miami and I have moved into more of a friendship mode and less of a social media friends mode. This week we went back and forth in some form or fashion a dozen times, six of the seven days of the week. To be fair a lot of those she just "liked" what I sent her, but that she "notices" me - and on the day she and I didn't exchange anything she "saw" my preview post from our trip. I've been very happy that she seems to like my sharing these, and I was also very pleased that twice she responded within minutes of me reaching out to her. The week started off with the amazing Eclipse. If you remember last week Lauren and I had exchanged messages that she would be hosting the live stream coverage. I did watch and she "liked" my message to her about the coverage. Lauren also posted on both FB and Twitter about their coverage and "liked" both my responses on those platforms, and she replied to my twitter message. Later in the day she saw my private message to her about the first day's preview of the upcoming Greece adventure and she "liked" that message.
My preview message to Lauren on Tuesday was "seen" but she didn't react to it, but on Wednesday she "liked" the message....made me feel better that I wasn't "bothering" her with my messages :)
The same was true Thursday morning when Lauren liked that preview message.
The Day 4 Preview got another like :) That evening when the news came on I immediately noticed that Lauren had "done" her hair. Now in the past I'd often make note of this - girl's like it when you notice things like this of course - but since just last week we'd had a "conversation" about this and she'd remarked to me that her "curly look" would be a "Fun Friday" look, so I messaged her that it was a "Fun Friday/Curly Hair" look on a Wednesday. She replied back ten minutes later, while on the anchor desk :) that she felt we needed a "Wacky Wednesday" to get through the week! LOL. I replied to that and she immediately "liked" that message as well.
Another "like" to my Friday preview private message and on FB that afternoon Lauren posted about her work in the community. I complimented her on that - it IS cool that despite a full time job, two little ones, and a husband she still finds time to give back in a leadership way in her community. And then that evening on the news she did a story on new findings in Pompeii. I messaged her that we'd seen similar remarkable preserved paintings and she wrote right back, while on the air just ten minutes later!
During the Friday evening news Lauren had remarked to Ivan the weather guy about the cool morning on Saturday as she had a T-ball game to go to. That evening while I was at the hockey game I opened Instagram and Lauren had posted a reel about her daughter's game. So cute...so I replied to the video and less than five minutes later she "liked" my reply.
My all-time favorite former and now adult gal-pal Kimmy posted the best family pic of her, her husband ("Mr. Kimmy") and her two little ones. She liked my remark about how good looking they were.
And finally, former Western High student and fellow Miami (Oh) grad Jen had liked the Florida Derby pic of Kim and I so I messaged her how cool it would be if she would come to the Derby next year and she replied back.
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