Opening Weekend at Keeneland
With the Gulfstream winter meet concluding last weekend on Florida Derby Day it's time to turn our attention to the Spring Classics and the racing leading up to that before heading into the summer season where our main attention is on the Monmouth Summer Season.
Friday April 5
After passing the opener, the second race of the day, and the first bet of the spring for me was a 2yo MSW sprint going four and a half furlongs. If you follow Keeneland, and/or my adventures you know that these races nearly always go through trainer Wesley Ward who scores with nearly every first time starting 2yo at the Keeneland Spring Meet. And like is often the case, in this event there were TWO Ward runners. I preferred Bostonian who was working bullets. The "other" Ward runner was Shoot It True who'd I'd be all over IF that was the only Ward runner. But as a filly facing colts and the wide draw I preferred Bostonian. As the day started and I checked the scratches, Ward had scratched Bostonian. And the crowd was pounding 'True. OK - I'd noted in my analysis to watch the board and I'd be on the one taking the money. Well, now there's only one and she's getting hammered so I not only made the wager but tripled the original planned bet. RIGHT to the front, clear by daylight in the first half dozen jumps and widened through the lane. Easy-peasy-pie! And we're on the board to start off the new racing season.
There had been a lot of rain and I expected the third, a turf sprint, to come off the grass but it didn't - kudos to Keeneland management (unlike Gulfstream's who move to the all-weather if it rained last week!). My selection was thinking it would come off, but he stayed in so I stayed on. No threat in sixth at a big price. Next up, another maiden special sprint going seven furlongs. Roman Grace was my choice. In her debut she'd drawn the rail and from the top of the turn to the 1/8th pole she was blocked. When finally clear she had no shot to catch the runaway winner but was five clear of the rest of the field. With a clean trip I thought she'd prove best in a highly competitive field of 3yo fillies. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione - who seems to rule the Kentucky circuit these days - broke sharply, went right to the front and drew off by daylight through the stretch. Went off at nearly 3/1 and I cashed for nearly $40.
Saturday April 6
I had high hopes as the day started as it was Bluegrass Day at Keeneland, Wood Memorial Day at Aqueduct, and Santa Anita Derby Day out west. The first comment I'll share is that in watching the racing from these tracks I was amazed at the crowds, especially compared to last week's Florida Derby. I mean, these are THE big days of the season. At Keeneland, much like at GP last Saturday it was packed. But when the camera would pan from the infield and you could see the grandstands in New York and Arcadia....it was a ghost town. Sad. As sad, I missed on all the big races despite having bet on one of the top two betting choices in all the races. The day started off smoothly as I scored with three of my first six selections. I was feeling pretty good about myself if the truth be told. Then from about 3pm until 7pm I went on a 13-race skid - FIVE of which saw me finish 2nd (and two thirds). But let's review the winners..... In the first graded stakes of the day, the Grade 2 Carter Handicap at Aqueduct my choice Post Time was the winner. I'd be the first to admit that the field wasn't the strongest Gr 2 event of the year, but Maryland-based trainer Brittany Russell's colt is talented. He sat fourth into the turn and made his move. The leader was former Gulfstream-based Super Chow. ALWAYS when running thru the stretch he drifts out some 8-9 paths. So as Post Time closed in on him he was running two strides forward and one stride sideways to keep from running this guy over. But he was up in time despite the "trouble" with my triple investment on board.
After finishing second and third twice I scored with Discreet Mischief in Keeneland's third, a MSW going seven furlongs for three-year-olds. His huge 89 Beyer on debut would win for fun if able to reproduce it here. Pressed the leader into the turn then blew by and drew off as tons the best.
The seventh at Aqueduct (which had started with an early 11:30 am first post) was a first level allowance going a one-turn mile. Typically these kinds of races are very difficult to predict. But Bill Mott had entered Bendoog who had been in the running to compete in the $12 Million Group 1 Dubai World Cup. In Dubai they run a series of races to prep for this big event and Bendoog had run second in both challenge rounds before being outrun in the big event. On the enormous drop to allowance company I thought he'd prove best. Near the back early he swooped up six wide into the lane and quickly cleared the field. Had to dig down deep to hold on, but he was first on the line at better than 2/1 odds allowing me to cash for more than thirty beans.
Prevalance was the next winner for me in Keeneland's fourth - and he's an interesting story. As a 3yo in 2021 he'd been an exciting winner on debut at Gulfstream and immediately there was some Derby talk. He came back in a one-turn mile and was much the best - looked to be the real deal. But disappointed in the Wood Memorial and the Pat Day Mile and his 3yo campaign ended with that effort on the first Saturday in May. Was an even fifth returning off the shelf at Gulfstream but came back to score in a one-turn mile allowance and followed that with a big win in the Grade 2 Commonwealth here at KEE. But since that early April victory in 2022 he'd missed in eight straight. He'd returned from a layoff this past winter and was entered in a synthetic sprint which I felt was odd. But I thought trainer Brendon Walsh was looking to reboot his career and I bet him. Nothing. Came back in a turf sprint and I was on him again. Distanced badly. Now he shows up here in a conditioned allowance. As I looked over the past performances I noted in my analysis, one of two things.......EITHER he just wasn't the same horse he once was as evidenced by his two "no-show" races in South Florida. OR....maybe, just MAYBE that had been the plan - have two "public workouts" and then be primed for a big effort here today. That he'd won that Gr 2 here and with Irad Ortiz taking the call I was on board. Was allowed to go off at a big 5/1 price - which I understand not everyone would dig as deep as I did or be as familiar as I was with this guy's history. He pressed the 20/1 front runner into the turn and the two of them were several lengths clear of the rest of the field leading me to think, "I'm winning this race!" Drew off impressively and when he paid nearly $13 for a $2 play I'd had my "bet of the day" to carry my bottom line.
Now came the long drought but got back into the swing of things by winning two of the last three, all in stakes at Santa Anita. The Grade 3 Monrovia was a six-and-a-half turf dash down the unique hillside and I liked Ag Bullet a lot. Pressed the leader into the lane and then opened up to win his third race over the SA turf. Ran second to a longshot with the short-priced Bob Baffert favorite in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby - the winner being the "other Baffert" who's Beyers were a pole slower than those of the top two betting choices. Sigh....racing! Closed the day out with a runaway winner, Shady Tiger, in the Echo Eddie Stakes on the main track.
Sunday April 7
Two good stories from the weekend finale card at Keeneland. Sidmara had been second best in his debut for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, which would make you take him seriously. But as I noted in my analysis, I don't think in the 17 plus years I've been handicapping seriously I've ever seen a running line like his. Not only 2nd....not only a "best-of-the-rest" second.....but had finished second by more than TWENTY-FOUR lengths. Yes, 24. Thought for sure he'd be 3/5 or less as I made him the BET of the Weekend. Somehow, go figure, the crowd let him go off at 6/5. Was shuffled back to near the back early - sigh, really? But moved up readily down the backside, got into contention on the turn, then blew by to win as easily best. Cashed for over $65 to seal a winning day.
In the race immediately after the BIG WIN, I picked Mansa Mousa to win the Palisades Stakes going five and a half furlongs on the turf. I knew he was a longshot in the program, but really thought he'd take some betting action, especially because he was the DRF Best Bet. He was making his first North American start for Team Valor and Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. In his last three Euro starts he'd scored a win and then two seconds in stakes company. As they left the gate he was an amazing 15/1. Was well back, but got a perfect trip up the rail. As the moved through the turn I thought, "I have a real chance here....." Inside the final 200 yards he surged to the front and I thought, "OH MY, I'm going to cash for nearly $801" But then on the wire he was nailed. WOW....you gotta love racing!
Finally - worth noting that three weeks from today (Sunday) Kim and I kick off our 2024 adventures. I'm so very excited that we have FIVE big trips over the final eight months of the year.
Social Media this week.....
Especially now that we're into the spring-summer-fall racing and I won't have much "human contact" (except on our travels) the interactions with my social media friends becomes more "important" to me. And I think it's fair for me to say that CBS-Miami anchor Lauren Pastrana can be considered a "friend" and not just a social media person I have contact with. That - for me - is because after having a half dozen contacts with her last week, we interacted SEVEN different times this week, including a three-exchange "conversation" one evening which was the highlight of the social media week. Our first two interactions came when Lauren posted about her hair style. Going back over a year I had once commented about her "new do" and she was appreciative of the notice, and since then I've often commented when she curls it. So this week she asked for opinions on curly vs. straight and then posted about covering up her gray hairs. Can't even imagine that's true. The next exchange came when I asked her, following her posting about the solar eclipse if she'd be on air or if she'd still be on vacation because in spite of all our interactions, she wasn't on the anchor desk all week. Lauren replied nearly right away that she'd be co-hosting with the weather guy, Ivan, on a special streaming feature. I continued that conversation by sharing that the Viking TV people had replied regarding my "script" and she asked about my presentation - it was the kind of specific question that you'd ask only if you truly had been interested in previous conversations we'd had about this. I also got a reaction to my message when I sent her a photo of me on a chilly Monday morning with coffee. And finally I decided I'd share our trip previews with her, and asked her to let me know if she did not want these sent to her or if she was already seeing them on Facebook. She reacted and replied without telling me not to continue, so I will.
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