Spring 2020: Week 1

April 2 - 5

The Spring/Summer Meet Begins

Welcome to the 2020 version of spring thoroughbred racing in a world of very strange times indeed.  I hope at some point when you - or I - read this in the future we'll be able to say, "Yeah, that was really something but we all came out of it ok."  This would, under normal circumstances been Opening Week of the Spring Keeneland Meet and Saturday would have been a HUGE day on the trail to the Kentucky Derby with major preps - and undercard stakes - at Santa Anita (the Santa Anita Derby and Oaks), at Aqueduct (the Wood Memorial and Gazelle Stakes), and at Keeneland (the Bluegrass and Ashland Stakes).  But instead there are only a handful of tracks running, none of those mentioned above included in them.  And at this point on the racing calendar nearly all the "big name" trainers, jockeys, and horses would have left So Florida.  But as we're one of the few venues still conducting live racing, the spring season has become a hybrid of Gulfstream Spring & Keeneland Spring.  As a racing fan in So Fla, that's a good thing for me.  Finally, normally during this point in the racing season, after having been a daily handicapper since the beginning of December I would play sporadically during the week and focus most of my attention on weekend racing until we got to the first weekend in May when Monmouth opens and I handicap their daily cards - but that's only a three or four day racing week at most.  But, with the covid-19 pandemic keeping us at home and knocking out all our travel plans and planning I decided I'd begin by handicapping daily at Gulfstream during their Thur - to - Sunday season.  And so here's how the first week played out.

Pre-Racing Days
As the Gulfstream Winter/Championship Meet ended Kim and I headed to Orlando to help watch our grandson Oliver for a few days.  One of the highlights was he wanted to watch the races with me and some of my videos.  He's just so adorable and the best part was during the live race we watched he leaned in and said, "Is that you Grandpa?"  Yes.  "Go Grandpa, go faster!" he cheered :)  While we were there and then on the Wednesday when we returned I went through all the various categories of my handicapping to try and see if my results revealed anything meaningful and/or useful for future handicapping....

The first thing I'll point out are the highlighted big figures.  Prior to compiling these statistics if you'd ask me for some general thoughts on what I do well and what is challenging for me with handicapping I would have offered these thoughts...... (1) Turf sprints are THE most difficult kind of race for me; (2) the most difficult class of racing to decipher is an entry level allowance.  (3) I probably do best with the better races - i.e. stakes & upper level allowance - and worse with maiden events, especially maiden claiming events.  And finally, I think I do much better with turf racing than with dirt.  Well, toss all those assumptions!  Although I will make these remarks about the numbers that "disprove" my theories.  The dirt vs. turf, can't explain that.  Will be anxious to run more numbers.  For turf sprints.  I would say that probably since I believe those are more difficult I bet them only when I have a CLEAR advantage in my mind.  Maiden claiming events, I would imagine if you went through and looked at an analysis of the winning maiden claiming picks, the vast majority of them were class dropping and probably a lot of those were MSW to MC for the first time.  And finally, as for the high rate of success with the entry level allowance, I'd say that much like the turf sprints I am especially wary of those so I bet only when I have a strong advantage.  Regardless of the reasons it was an interesting exercise :)  On to racing for the first week.....

Thursday April 2
Well, the spring could not have started off any better.  In the opener I again went to the "the rule in handicapping is there are NO rules" theory when supporting sixth time maiden Living Vicariously.  My reasoning was that only three of his starts had been on the turf, and you could toss the one in MSW company.  He'd twice run for this same $50K tag and he'd been a stalking third two back, then set a blistering pace of :21 flat and :43.4 before being run down by the 8/5 favorite AND holding on for second.  With the "Minister of Speed," Emisael Jaramillo in the irons and an inside draw I thought he'd be LONG gone on the front end.  Right to the front and though the fractions may seem very similar (:21.3 and :44..0) the difference in lengths was enormous - three lengths slower in the opening quarter and a full length slower at the half mile mark.  So it was no surprise he was the winner, to me at least.  What was a surprise was that he paid a big $7.60 and that basically paid for the fact that I didn't cash any more tickets in the other four races.

Friday April 3 - THE DAY of the Pick 3
I can't honestly remember when I've had as big of a day, certainly not in the last year or so.  As I said to Kim at the end of the racing day (and several times there after!), one of the many great things about this game is that you never know.  As I said in an example, when you go to Walt Disney World and get on the Haunted Mansion attraction you "know" you are going to have a good time and have a good idea of what is about to happen.  You begin a day at the races and you just don't know what stories are about to unfold.  When I handicapped the card on Thursday morning, as I went through the card I had the feeling that this was a very strong card, very "Keeneland like," and I felt pretty confident about my picks as I made them.  So much so that I decided to play some multi-race wagers, which is something I next to never do.  I passed the opener and then ran seventh at 5/1 in the second.  In the third race I liked Not Now Rand.  His two back race at six furlongs saw him set the pace and was in front after 5 1/2 furlongs - today's distance - only to be caught late and finish a best-of-the-rest second.  AND that was against $25K rivals.  Today he was in for half that price.  Toss the last when bobbled at the start.  The only reservation I had was that today was his eighth career start.  Still, to me he looked to have a real pace advantage and on the class drop, so I doubled the bet.  And after I'd looked at the next two races I thought he was a worthy single for a small Pick-3 bet.  Up until about three minutes to post time Not Now Rand was the short-priced favorite but the closer they got to going in the gate, the more the betting evened out and he left as a tepid 2/1 favorite.  Surprisingly to me jockey Luis Saez had him a stalking position in fourth and then made his move into the clear as they turned for home.  Opened up as much, MUCH the best.

Cashed for $30 on my first winner of the day and had the first leg of the P-3 in the bank.  In the fourth, I used a combination of a tried and true handicapping angle to pick the winner and a negative angle to go against the most likely win candidate.  Two runners were taking BIG drops in class and you had to decide if the barns were wanting to get rid of them or were finding the right level for them.  In my mind Threshold was the latter for Mark Casse.  A long time ago I'd read a paperback handicapping book about betting speed.  And among the many angles it provided insight into was the "Early Speed, Class Drop" angle.  And they said, the further the runner got beat the better because the key was the speed through the pace call at a higher class level was often a sign of an impending big effort.  Such was the case with Threshold.  He'd been close to the pace through six furlongs - the pace call in a two-turn turf event like this - for a $50K tag and then faded.  Today he was in for half that price.  And the negative angle was in regards to Starship Bubba.  That one was first off the claim for Mike Maker and "everyone" just seems to think those are automatic winners.  But for several months now the numbers show it's a 15% win angle.  As they turned for home 'Bubba was the slight favorite and took the lead on the rail; Threshold tracked the leaders to the top of the lane, switched out about three wide, got his feet under him and hit another gear to catch the leader in the final 200 yards and then edge clear.  The best news, (a) I'd also singled him in the P3 and (b) he left the gate at 5/1.

"Only" cashed for $25 but was alive with two options in the final leg of my bet, the fifth race which was also on the turf.  I noted in my analysis that it's not uncommon for my top three picks to match those of the public handicappers but it is somewhat unusual that when I write up my analysis it's very nearly the same as one of them, in this case Mike Welsch of the DRF.  My top choice was High Noon Rider who was a generous 6/1 in the program.  He'd lost twice in a row to the red-hot Dalarna, who I'd had last time out, but I thought there were real reasons to think that today he'd turn the tables.  Backing up in time, 'Rider had come off a try in a Gr 3 on the synthetic at Woodbine to run in a starter allowance like this and closed down the race from off the pace in spite of the pace being moderate at good odds of 3/1.  Then two back, facing Dalarna in the Little Magician Stakes High Noon Rider had clipped heels on the back stretch and lost all chance.  Then last time out he'd closed belatedly into a very slow pace for third.  Today there looked to be much more speed and while Dalarna looked to be in the garden spot tracking them, he'd have to run much faster early and just might be vulnerable to the late kick of 'Rider.  I also thought that the fact that the likely favorite was coming back on short rest, twenty days, AND had declining Beyers made him vulnerable.  But just to be sure I played him along with my top choice in the Pick-3.  Could not have played out more like I'd forseen it!  As they spun out of the turn Dalarna made his move on the leaders who'd gone too fast to win and he took over.  Meanwhile hot-riding Tyler Gaffalione had used a rail skimming ride to rally High Noon Rider into striking position and he swung into the clear with a full head of momentum.  Even track announcer Pete Aiello was caught off guard as he called, "...High Noon Rider rallies to try and get into second, and oh, he's got his eye on getting the win!...."  He blew right on by to score.  I'd doubled the bet and his payoff of $11.20 triggered a $56 payoff on the straight win ticket and with a $1 Pick 3 I cashed for over $140.  Oh I'm having a GREAT DAY!

But I wasn't done!  Cleverly I'd not only hooked High Noon Rider (and Dalarna) into a Pick 3 as the anchor leg, but I also used them as a lead-in to the next Pick-3 sequence.  And I used them as the first half of a Daily Double with Candy Machine in the sixth race, a Maiden Special going a mile and a sixteenth using the first finish line.  There were two Todd Pletcher runners in here, and I'd had them both in their debut when they failed to score.  But my pick was Chad Brown's Candy Machine.  His debut had been a good effort against Pletcher's highly talented I'll Fight Dempsey.  And he'd earned a Beyer of 78 for his third place finish, which equaled the par for this class level.  None of the others had run that fast.  Brown is an excellent 35% with second time starters AND an even better 37% with stretch out runners like this.  AND he was the DRF Best Bet.  The others would have to not only handle the two turns BUT also improve by double digit lengths to beat the likely favorite.  Gaffalione was on board again and he was in command of the race through the turn when the third choice tried to race up inside him along the rail.  Watching it live Announcer Pete called, "...Joe Bravo tried to thread the needle but Tyler just said NOPE...." but Bravo looked like he checked and steadied the horse.  After Candy Machine crossed the wire there was an objection and INQUIRY.  First, the camera angle could not capture an exact head-on view - front or back - at the exact moment of the "incident" but in watching it over and over it seemed clear to me that Gaffalione was about three off the rail before and after the incident and that the other horse seemed to want to get out as they came out of the turn and that was where the contact occurred.  The stewards ruled no change to the order and I was through on the second leg of my second Pick 3 but more importantly had the double with the nice-priced High Noon Rider on top!

AND I had the triple investment win ticket on Candy Machine for nearly $30.  What a day.  But again, I was not done.  I also liked Interest in the next race and the following race was my personal BEST of the Day so I had linked Candy Machine into a Daily Double with the next and played another Pick 3.  I thought I had an excellent chance to win both races and cash both multi-race tickets.  But I did think, what are the chances I can cash ALL these tickets today?  This was a claiming event for sophomore fillies going a mile on the turf.  Claiming events for 3yo at this time of the year are tricky I think but in here you could make a real case for Saffie Joseph's filly Interest.  She'd won with a nice figure three back for $25K.  Today she was in a $12.5K claimer - which I've found is about right when a runner wins a maiden claiming event, their next win is for about half that price against winners.  In her first start for Joseph it got rained off and she was wide.  Then last time out she stumbled badly at the start and lost all chance.  Interest stalked the leaders, moved into the clear in the lane and was inching clear when a closer came with a rush.....PHOTO FINISH.  As I watched the replay it's always difficult from the camera angle at Gulfstream and the fact that the finish line pole for the main track is situated at nearly the exact point where you would see who had their nose first on the wire on the turf.  But from the pan angle that the race had been broadcast live I really thought I'd finished first.....and so it came up as Interest the winner.  Not only did I cash the triple investment win bet, but I also had the Pick 3 AND the Daily Double....again!

WOW - and with the BEST BET coming up I felt pretty good I'd cash all of my tickets.  My only concern was that already this week two Todd Pletcher runners who looked SO much better than their rivals had failed to score.  And so it was with Off Topic in the eighth race, finishing an off-the-board fourth at 4/5.  But what a day....hit nine of twelve bets including not one but two Daily Doubles and two Pick 3 plays.  Kim fixed me a frozen mud slide to celebrate the day.  Check out the video recap of this big day......

Friday April 3:  Pick 3 Day Recap

Saturday April 4
Well, hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney said it best in a tweet late Saturday afternoon....

I played both Gulfstream and Oaklawn today and while I knew I couldn't possibly replicate the amazing results of Friday I was surprised that I was shut out at Gulfstream and the only win I had at Oaklawn was when my pick scratched leaving me with the odds-on favorite who won for fun.  I will say that I ran second and if half of those had won I'd have had an OK day.  But so it goes.

Sunday April 5
I decided I'd had enough success with the multi-race wagers on Friday to risk a few more.  I had more originally listed to play but decided I was stretching it.  Paid for that when I would have had one late P3 but decided to save a couple dollars and narrowed my two-horse play in the third leg to just one, and of course the other won.  But still, it was an excellent day of handicapping as I had FIVE winners on the day.  After missing in the opener with a Saffie Joseph runner that looked CLEARLY best, ran seventh at even money, I had the winner in the second.  Swirling Candy was facing nw2L turf sprinters after wiring a $25K maiden field two back and then dueling on the lead against winners last time out before dead-heating for third.  With the outside draw I thought the hot-riding Tyler Gaffalione might stalk the pace to win here, but she broke sharply and went right to the front and scored wire-to-wire.

In the third, an open claiming sprint going 6 1/2 furlongs I thought we'd know before the opening quarter mile was over if Kiffle would be winning or not because she'd won four times in wire-to-wire fashion in sprints.  Then coming off a November to late February break she was sent out in a two-turn mile turf event.  Showed speed into the lane then weakened to fifth, but only beaten two lengths.  It just seemed to me that this was the perfect foundation to take this group, on the big drop down to $10K, wire to wire if no one else showed speed.  She did get pressure in the opening quarter mile but as they approached the far turn Tyler G hadn't moved a muscle and the others close to the front were vigorously asking their horses for run.  Shook the reins turning for home and kissed the field a pleasant good bye by a widening seven plus lengths.

I was alive with a Pick 3 and a Daily Double heading into the 4th, an entry level allowance going five furlongs on the turf and Cryogenics looked formidable.  Of the 139 combined speed figures of the rivals facing him only three would be competitive with his "paired" last two figures.  One had been earned by a horse that was 0-for-16 at Gulfstream and had earned the number in 2017, and the other was earned by a horse that 1-for-17 and hadn't earned a number like that in two years.  While neither the Double or the P3 would pay alot, still I'd have them.  If only they didn't actually RUN the races I'd have had it.  Cryogenics was steadied at the start and again at the 3/8th pole and finished strongly to be third.  The winner had set the pace last time out against Cryogenics who ran by him to win by a widening two plus lengths.  In the sixth I really thought Gotta Go Moe had an excellent chance to wire this MSW turf sprint in her sixth start.  In her last three she'd draw out wide and had to battle on the lead while giving up ground.  Today she had the rail and if she ran back to her previous she'd be LONG gone under Luis Saez.  Indeed she was sharp out of the gate and was easily clear, opened up by daylight in the lane then wasn't asked for everything as she held off the field to score as the 4/5 favorite.

In the seventh it was a nw3L event going six furlongs.  Typically in a 3-lifetime event I like a runner who's never been in such a conditioned event, but there weren't any of those.  But I thought Sky Chaser looked solid in here.  She'd been in stakes company and was a best-of-the-rest 2nd for $35K 3L behind Flat Awesome Jenny who had won three in a row until she hopped at the break and lost all chance in her most recent.  Today Sky Chaser was dropping down to $20K.  She was wide all the way under one of the low-percentage riders, but as they turned for home her better ability and class carried her to the front as she ground out the win and edged clear by a little more than a length.

We were heading into one of my most confident selections and Ron Nicoletti's BEST BET of the Day in the 8th.  And I was alive in a P3 with Gotta Go Mo/Sky Chaser and in a Daily Double with the latter.  Even though it wouldn't pay much with both of those horses going off at even money, it was two winning tickets I thought I "had."  Voodoo Zip was the only one in the field who'd run better than the par figure for the race, ever, and she'd done it in her last.  Trainer Danny Gargan won at a big 39% clip at the tough Championship Meet, and he had hot-riding Tyler Gaffalione in the irons - he'd won TEN races through the first three days of the spring and had two already today.  Gaffalione had her sitting in third behind the front runner who while pressured somewhat was going easily up front.  It's always easy to second guess but I thought he moved too late on Voodoo and she fell a neck shy of getting me the win, double, and P3 ticket.  Sigh.....  In the ninth I liked Proven Strategies from the Chad Brown barn but decided in her first try against winners I'd watch.  Wire to wire at even money.  Wow.  The next race wasn't the "bet of the day" but in my mind was the "race of the day."  On March fifth Up In Smoke was exiting a very impressive win in state-bred maiden special company to try state-bred entry level allowance foes with John Velazquez in the saddle.  She pressed the pace through the opening quarter but didn't seem comfortable with the kick back of dirt and gradually began dropping back until she disappeared off the screen prompting Announcer Pete to say, "....the favorite is literally up in smoke...."  But as the field swung into the lane there was a blur of a horse from the back who was swinging wide.  Then at the 1/8th pole she was fifth and on the move.  What the????  Blew by to win emphatically.  The most unusual and impressive race I've seen in a long time.  So how would she run today.  Adding to the intrigue she was moving from state-bred to OPEN allowance foes here.  She broke cleanly but dropped back quickly to trail almost ten off the leaders.  But Luis Saez got her moving on the turn and was within a couple lengths and flying as they came into the stretch.  Blew by just like last time and I had my fifth winner on the day.

One word about the investments for the week.  Held my winning percentage that I'm usually at, but because of the multi-race wagers I turned what would have been a pretty good loss for the week into a nearly $100 profit for the first week of the meet.  If I can win at my usual pace and payoffs I'll recoup a lot of the money I lost from that big Friday and that should carry me through several weeks.  We'll be back at it on Thursday!

Fall Stars Weekend

Racing Towards The Breeders' Cup

This weekend was Opening Weekend at Keeneland and the "Fall Stars Weekend" featured multiple graded stakes on all three days!  I handicapped the full card for each day and here's the results.....

Friday October 7

I had five races where I had a selection from the ten race card on Opening Day.  I passed the first two races and it was a good thing as both winners ($16.60 and $8.20) were not even mentioned in my analysis of the top contenders.  In the third I liked Scarly Charly who was sent off at 5/2 in a seven furlong, third level allowance.  Trailed from the get-go and showed nothing.  In the fourth I passed, writing it was a "wild and wide-open maiden claimer for two-year-olds."  The winner was a $26.00 upset runner.  Good decisions on the races I've passed so far!  In the fourth we were sprinting six furlongs in a non-winner of two-lifetime claiming event.  It's rare that top North American trainer Todd Pletcher has a claiming horse, much less one entered in a 2-lifetime event.  But that was the case with Sir Alfred.  The Beyer figures he'd earned in his last four were easily, EASILY the best of these and he'd never seen a tag or a 2-lifetime event.  But after a dominant win at Gulfstream to break his maiden at odds-on by fifteen lengths he'd faded in each subsequent try and today would be his sixth consecutive different rider.  No problems today however as he tracked the leaders four wide into the lane, engaged the leader and dueled to the wire, forging ahead narrowly in the shadow of the wire!  

My first win of the Fall Keeneland meet!  Right back into the winner's circle in the sixth - a MSW race going 8 1/2 furlongs with a "first finish line" in the short stretch.  Valadorna looked much the best to me.  When I handicapped the race and typed up my selection sheet I had indicated I would triple the bet.  But when I printed it out I missed that - for some reason my printer when I print a word doc of my selections, it cuts off 1/2 of the icon I use to indicate an increased wager.  This isn't a problem for double investments because the icon is still visible.  But when I add an asterisk, which is my sign for a triple bet, the asterisk is often so close to the icon that I miss it - such was the case here.  Valadorna was wide throughout, but when swung out five wide off the far turn she accelerated to the wire and won going away under a hand ride by at least half a dozen lengths.  

Cashed for nearly $20 (should have been nearly $30, but what are you going to do?).  I passed on the 7th where I had no clue on anyone to even mention with a chance - the winner was a Ramsey horse on the turf which had caught my eye, but the 1-for-17 record was really hard to swallow, especially at a short price.  The 8th was the Grade 2 Phoenix and the prohibitive favorite was AP Indian who was working on a five race win streak, including back-to-back Grade 1 victories at Saratoga most recently.  I had never been a fan and I was eager to go against him.  I liked Ami's Flatter who was a nice 9/2 price.  In all five of his one-turn events he'd won or been close and his biggest speed figure had come in a Grade 3 win, HERE.  AP Indian was being hammered early at 1/9 and I considered switching my bet.  But as I came close to doing that I was reminded that he'd been pointed for the Grade 1 Vosburgh last weekend but had passed due to the off-going.  I never like to bet horses who have last minute changes in planned outings.  My pick came flying late, without being a serious threat to be third at a nice 9/2 price while AP Indian was life-and-death at 2/5 in an oh-so-close photo finish, but he won.  Definitely one to bet against in the Breeders' Cup Sprint.  I had a minimum bet on Diadurda in the 9th, the Grade 1 Alcibiades for two-year-old fillies but she was a distant 10th at 7/2 while a $26.60 upsetter scored.  In the finale I had no inkling, so I passed.  Two-for-five on the day, I'll take it.

Saturday October 8

Today was a big day of racing and I had picks from not only Keeneland but a few from both Belmont and Santa Anita.  As I went through my analysis I wrote very detailed descriptions of not only my choices, but why and a little about the race conditions because my nephew Eric, who lives in Cincinnati, had messaged me that he and some friends were headed to Keeneland for a day at the races.  I was hopeful that I could provide him some winners.  I was at home watching online while I watched college football all day as I would not get to see any games for the next two weeks due to my upcoming river cruise in western France.....ooooh la la!  I lost the first bet when Data Room was a fading eighth in the 2nd at Belmont.  But I bounced back with Bella Bailar in the opener at Keeneland.  This was a non-winners of two lifetime and she was the only one who had never seen a tag or a 2L condition.  She went wire to wire handily.  

And best of all she paid a generous $7.20.  I only had the minimum because I'd been very conscious of trying to structure my bets around my BET of the Day on Tepin in the Grade 1 First Lady later in the day.  I didn't know how Eric was planning to make his bets, but it had to be a positive that we'd won the opener, and I was hoping he'd would impress his new girlfriend.  I texted him but he replied that they had arrived too late and he'd missed making the bet.  Bummer.  I passed the 2nd at Keeneland and ran 5th at 7/2 in the Grade 1 Frizette for two-year-old fillies at Belmont.  I liked Whateverybodywants in the third at Keeneland and he was 7/2 in the early program.  But everyone saw what I did and hammered him down to 7/5 due to him being lightly raced and with a big upside.  He bobbled at the break and then was in traffic throughout the entire race.  A non-eventful fourth.  Boooo.  In the fifth at Belmont Todd Pletcher had two runners and I liked Tommy Macho who was 6/1 in the early program but a tepid favorite at 2/1 at post time.  His stablemate went wire to wire to give Pletcher the win (as the "other 2/1" favorite) while Tommy was a non-threatening fifth.  No bet in Keeneland's fourth and then it was time for my BEST of the day at Belmont, the Grade 1 Flower Bowl for older fillies & mares going a mile and a quarter on the turf.  Lady Eli had been a sensational juvenile and Breeders' Cup Champ and then had a great start to her sophomore season before coming down with what is almost always a fatal disease.  But after a year off she was remarkably back on the track and just missed in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa last time out.  With one under her belt I thought she'd be really hard to beat today.  She made her winning move on the far turn and while it was as sensational as her first six wins had been, the fact that she'd won a Grade 1 event after being off a year with an ailment that many anticipated would not only end her career but take her life made this a remarkable fairy-tale ending.  

On to the Breeders' Cup for Lady Eli! My pick in the Grade 3 Woodford at Keeneland, a 5 1/2 furlong turf sprint was Front Pocket Money who was 30/1 in the DRF program.  I knew he would not be those odds but I did think he'd be a big price.  He was a huge 19/1 at post time and he was a close third - have to be happy with the pick even though he didn't win.  But it was a big disappointment when Stonetastic looked to be the lone speed in the Grade 2 TCA Stakes in Keeneland's 6th and was sent off at even money, but gave way in the final 16th after being loose on the lead throughout.  Just not good enough.  I was second again, and again at a short price when Fantasy Luck was 2nd best at 4/5 in the 2nd at Santa ANita.  At Belmont Favorable Outcome- who had been one of the most impressive 2yo maiden winners of the Saratoga meet - was my pick in the Grade 1 Champagne.  I'd been smart enough to make Favorable Outcome a prime-time play in his debut and he'd paid a huge $9.40 so I cashed for nearly $100 that day.  He was a good 5/2 price and tracked a sizzling pace into the lane before weakening to be third.  Now it was time for the Tepin race.  I KNEW she'd win - after beating the best European males at Royal Ascot two back and then a sharp group of North American males in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile last time out, today she faced fellow fillies and mares.  Of the 135 combined races run by her rivals today ONE number could match her last FIVE numbers.  Even if not at her best I KNEW she'd win.  But when 30/1 Photo Call, a Todd Pletcher mare bolted to front.  No worries because Tepin likes to have a target.  But despite average pace splits Photo Call was eight lengths ahead and I was concerned.  She would have to have a complete collapse to not hold on, even if Tepin were at her best.  Tepin made "a move" on the turn but it was far too late.  Easily best of the rest but there was no catching Photo Call who paid over $60 to win on a $2 ticket.  Eric texted me his surprise and I was equally so.  This probably will cost me any chance of a profitable weekend I thought.  Some of the sting was taken out when less than a half hour later Lord Nelson won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Sprint but the 1/2 price did little for the bottom line.  The eighth at Keeneland was the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity for 2yo colts with a ticket to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile on the line.  I liked Classic Empire who had been the favorite in his most recent when he tossed his rider out of the gate.  The crowd wasn't fooled nor dissuaded by the eleven post.  He made a bold move on the turn and ran away as much the best - impressive as the 8/5 favorite.  

I was happy that Eric should have that one, even if it was a short price.  In the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont I thought Effinex looked much the best and he was the 6/5 favorite.  But he was caught in the shadow of the wire by Bob Baffert's Hoppertunity.  Second for me, again.  The 9th at Keeneland was the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile.  I had thought this was where Tepin would run today and she would have been a prohibitive favorite, as this was not a strong field of milers.  But with her in the First Lady, trainer Graham Motion sent his filly, Miss Temple City here to take on the boys rather than face Tepin.  Ironically, he'd done the same thing in the spring when Tepin ran in, and won, the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley, and Miss Temple City had upset the boys in the Grade 1 Makers' Mark Mile.  In fact that race had earned her a lifetime best speed figure.  She was coming in her off of back to back troubled trips and with the field being far from formidable I thought she had a good chance to upset the field.  She immediately was in a good stalking position and as they went down the backside I could tell that the rider had plenty of horse under him.  I began to get excited because I knew I had a very real chance of getting the upset.  Out of the turn she was let loose and she opened up by four lengths.  She seemed home free when here came a late running closer just FLYING on the outside.  Too little, too late - Miss Temple City had sprung the upset!  And check out the price!  

Even better, I'd doubled the bet so I would be cashing for $87 - that took a lot of the sting out of the Tepin loss and I was excited to think that Eric would have the upset winner.  In the finale at Keeneland Commandeering was second as the 9/5 favorite end my day at Keeneland with a record of three for eight and a two dollar bet on them would have cost $16 and returned nearly $30.  I texted Eric and told him I hoped he had stuck with the picks and was rewarded.  He texted back how disappointed he was because he had planned to bet $40 and $60 on those two winners but his friends had wanted to leave early so he didn't get to make the bets - cost him over $500 and he'd missed the earlier winner on the day.  What a disappointment, but a great track story!  My day ended late that evening when Om was second best in the Grade 2 City of Hope Mile on the turf.

Sunday October 9

The final day of the weekend and I was at first undecided about playing just the single race I was interested in or the entire card.  And then it was decided when I recalled that the deal with my new online account, Xpressbet.com is that any DRF card of past performances I download is FREE if I make at least one $2 investment.  Well, I knew that was going to happen so I got the past performances Saturday morning prior to the start of GameDay on ESPN and handicapped the card.  Nothing in either the first or the third and my pick in the 2nd, Winkadatdawat was fourth at 3/1.  In the fourth we were traveling seven furlongs on the main track in a Maiden Special for two-year-olds.  I liked both of the two runners who formed a powerful entry for Mark Casse, but it appeared that only one would run with one stuck on the also eligible list.  And fortunately for me I liked Speedmeister the best of the two  He had been purchased by owner John Oxley for a huge $650K at the Fasig-Tipton sales and had a sizzling work over the Churchill Downs main track going a wicked :59.3 in a best-of-26 move.  With Julian Leparoux riding, who seems to always do his best work here (except for the Tepin ride yesterday, grrrrrrr) I thought I had a good chance to score.  He tracked the pace four wide (being an entry he was NOT in the 1-slot, but instead posted in gate #9) into the turn and when Leparoux let him loose he took off as TONS the best!

And at a generous $6.40 price I was cashing for over $30 on my first winner of this Sunday afternoon.  I was disappointed in the fifth when Imperia looked easily best on paper and was the DRF Byron King's Best Bet of the afternoon.  This was an entry level allowance going 9 1/2 furlongs on the turf.  His last two figures were better than any of the 59 numbers run by his rivals.  But the rider kept him inside in a bulky field and he was trapped behind horses through the turn, but found room into the stretch; then when given a chance he took off, only to have to slam on the brakes, and then check sharply a second time in deep stretch.  Remarkable he was third as the 3/2 favorite considering all the traffic issues.  In the sixth I couldn't find any 2yo in this 2-lifetime allowance that caught my fancy.  The 7th was a third level allowance-optional claiming and I liked Kathballu who appeared to be a sister or daughter to multiple graded stakes winning Kathmandu who had been a favorite filly of mine several years ago.  She had experience over the track and though she'd not won, both were sharp efforts including a near-miss in the Grade 2 Raven's Run last fall.  She was sent off as the 8/5 favorite and stalked the pace in fourth to the turn.  She glided up easily three wide, and then despite being fanned five wide into the lane she accelerated past her rivals and drew off with authority!  WHOOO HOOOO - two wins and again, at a fair price. 

I had doubled the bet, so the $5.20 payoff generated a return to me of nearly $30!  The eighth was the Grade 3 Bourbon Stakes going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf for juvenile colts.  Ticonderoga was my pick and he was the 4/5 favorite for Chad Brown and Javier Castellano.  But while making what looked like a winning move into the stretch he began weaving around and was gawking at the grandstand.  Castellano tried to straighten the colt out but he continued to run greenly the length of the stretch and it cost him the race as he was a fast closing second when he finally got into gear.  The final play of the day was the BET of the Day - in the featured Grade 1 Spinster.  This race is typically a big prep for the Breeders' Cup Distaff, but this year while the winner would have to be considered, it's clear that undefeated three-year-old sensation Songbird WILL be the odds-on favorite in the Distaff and either Beholder or Stellar Wind will be the second choice with the other most likely being the third choice.  But today belonged to I'm A Chatterbox.  I did not want to see her on the lead and as they hit the first turn she was trying to make the lead, but jockey Florent Geroux smartly kept her outside, letting her drift into the three path so the speed horse on the rail would get to the front.  Chatterbox tracked her while full of run to the far turn and when allowed to run she sprinted clear under a hand ride as T-O-N-S the best.  Easy-peasy-pie!

I cashed for over $40 on my final win of the day.  For the day I finished an outstanding 6/3-1-1 and a nice profit.  For the weekend I was 10-for-28, an excellent 38% on the weekend.

And now it's off to France and my solo Viking River Cruise!  See ya' later!

Click here to follow my river cruise adventure

Chateaux, Rivers and Wine

October 1

Breeders' Cup Preview Day

A Day at the Downs

When Keith and I were at the Breeders' Cup last fall in Lexington at Keeneland, Keith remarked to me that he had never been to Churchill Downs.  He asked how close we were and I explained that he had passed Churchill on the way to Keeneland, so we agreed we'd have a racing adventure this fall.  After going through a variety of dates we finally came up with this weekend.  As part of my visit to Ohio this fall, we would meet for a quick adventure in the middle of my family visit.  Three quick stories, which you can read more details on my travel journal for this adventure (click here) were.....(a) when I booked the hotel I got it for free through my Expedia rewards!  (b) the car rental for the week was going to be $250 but I was able to get a car for just the three days and got it down to less than $75!  And, (c) the night before the day at the races we went out to eat at what used to be the original Galt House (very famous and expensive hotel/restaurant in Louisville) in the Troll Pub Under the Bridge.....  

Saturday morning we got up and went to the Derby Museum and by 11:30 we were at Churchill Downs for a day of racing.......After getting reserved seats right on the finish line, under cover (in anticipation of in-climate weather during the afternoon) I had Keith take a photo of me to post on my Facebook page and then we went down to the rail for a photo of the two of us......

When Keith had sat down with the Daily Racing Form last night at the hotel he remarked how much the card seemed like a "Calder card" with very few solid plays.  One of the things which was certainly an amazing thing to see, live, because I'd obviously seen it on broadcasts of the races, but it was new since I'd last been here, was the GIGANTIC jumbotron.  It's mounted over 90 feet in the air and you can fit not one, not two, but THREE NBA basketball courts on the screen.  Now THAT is big!  And it is such a high quality high definition picture, amazing.

I had selections in seven of the eleven races, but with the recent weather two of those scratched out when the races came off the turf.  The opener at Churchill was a mile and a sixteenth claiming event and I liked Compass Stone who left the gate as a tepid 2/1 favorite.  He was in an excellent stalking position three wide into the far turn and stopped once the sprint to the wire started, sixth.  I passed the second.  At Belmont in their third Todd Pletcher's debuting colt Gotta Curlin was 20/1 in the DRF morning program - I wrote in my analysis, "...show of hands, who thinks a Pletcher FTS for Stonestreet Stables with John Velazquez on board will be 20/1...." Sure enough, 5/2 at post time.  Pressed the pace to the stretch and stopped, fifth.  The third at Churchill was a maiden special on the turf.  Now it was off and my horse was scratched.  I made an initial second choice, but then decided against it.  Good thing as he did set the pace as the lone speed, as I thought.  But then stopped like he was shot and was last under the wire at 6/1.  The fourth was an interesting race - it was a maiden special weight going a one-turn mile, and I liked Ma Can Do It - see if you can see my concern:

She obviously has talent, as is obvious from her third place finish in the Grade 1 Alcibiades as a 2yo followed by a fifth in the Breeders' Cup; then a sharp second in the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan this year.  But she was odds-on in the June 18th Churchill race, I know I bet her and she was a badly beaten fourth; then in the turf event she again faded as the favorite.  But, as I said to Kim, today I thought she might be a fair price BECAUSE of the nine losses (track psychology that she'd win today) and I thought that going a one-turn mile might be the ideal trip for her.  She was 8/5 as they approached the gate but was hammered late to be 3/5 as they hit the far turn.  She swooped by on the turn, opened up and won as much the best.

I upped the bet on her and Keith pounded her - winner, winner, chicken dinner!  I didn't like anyone in the fifth - we took advantage of the break and had lunch.  Next up, another maiden event, this time 8 1/2 furlongs for two-year-olds and I liked Silent Degree who had improved in each of her three starts.  She also stalked the pace to the stretch, opened up and looked long gone.  But if you watch the highlight video you'll see how in mid-stretch she ran erratically and I thought she had lost the race.  But she found her best stride in deep stretch and held on!  There was an objection and Keith and I were concerned.  But without a steward's inquiry I felt pretty comfortable.

She stayed up - but only paid $4.80, and I only got $12 back on the minimum play.  We headed down to the paddock to check out the horses before the 7th, but I had no bet because it was an off-the-turf event.  I wanted to bet because it was a stakes race, but in the end I couldn't find anyone I liked.  Again a good decision as the horse I liked was a beaten nearly a dozen lengths when fourth at 9/2.  The biggest setback of the day came in the 6th at Belmont when Flintshire was the prohibitive 1/5 favorite in the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch going 12 furlongs on the turf.  He was the overwhelming favorite for next month's Breeders' Cup Turf and has been so impressive in three straight wins here in North America.  Today he faced only three rivals and it looked like a foregone conclusion.  Instead a Todd Pletcher runner, who had moved into his barn this year and was WINLESS since 2014 went wire to wire and paid $20 IN A FOUR HORSE FIELD no less, while Flintshire was a dull second.  He will probably not get my vote in the BC Turf after that effort.  The $50 BEST BET investment lost here ended up costing me a profitable day when all the numbers were counted despite some good scores still to come.  I was fifth in Belmont's Grade 2 Gallant Bloom after Wonder Gal made a middle move at 2/1 and then hung; I was a badly beaten 7th with Scurry in Churchill's eighth at 2/1.  Then in the "best" of the day at Churchill Downs Breeders' Cup Sprint Champion came back for his first race since December and stretched out to a one-turn mile in the Grade 3 Ack Ack.  I questioned the trainer who'd only started two horses in all of 2016 - does she know what she's doing? - and the stretch out.  But even if he ran five or six clicks behind his last several Beyers he would win.  He was 1/9 until right before post time when he went up to 1/5.  I thought that was fair.  He pressed the pace but looked from the beginning like he wasn't comfortable.  No response through the lane as we watched from the rail, fourth.  He is another that won't get a dollar of my money on BC weekend.  In the Grade 1 Vosburgh, a six furlong sprint at Belmont I liked AP Indian, but with the wet conditions he scratched.  My first indication was to pass the race - but I'd had many of these already!  My second thought was to go with the horse that initially had been my pick, XY Jet who was shipping up from South Florida.  But like Runhappy he had not run since the spring and was coming off an injury.  As I told Keith, if it was a Gr 3 maybe - but at this level, on the sloppy Belmont track?  As the favorite to boot?  No way.  So I thought I'd pass.  Then I noticed that Joking was on a two race win streak, with numbers good enough to win.  AND best of all, if XY Jet faded after setting fast fractions, which I thought was a very likely scenario, Joking would be running late.  And the VERY BEST of all, on off tracks he was 4/3-1-0.  Well, XY Jet set a rapid :44 flat pace to the stretch and like I thought, stopped as the 6/5 favorite.  But if you'd offered to buy my ticket at this point I'd have sold it to you as Joking was next to last and coming VERY wide.  But through the lane he was F-L-Y-I-N-G and was up in time!  WHOOO HOOO!  And best of all was his price -

Yes, that's right he was 4/1 and I had doubled the bet so I was cashing for $50!  The third stakes of the day at Churchill Downs was the Lucas Classic and I thought that Breaking Lucky would be closing into a contested pace at a nice price.  I told Keith as they were approaching the gate that my pick was overbet as the mild 2/1 favorite and that if either Noble Bird - who'd wired the Grade 1 Clark two years ago or Bradester, who'd wired the Grade 1 Clark this past year, got loose on the lead it was all over.  Noble Bird wired the field at 9/2 while Breaking Lucky showed little.  As they left the gate in Louisville they were running the Grade 1 Beldame at Belmont where Forever Unbridled was my top choice as a prime-time play.  As we walked into the simulcast area we could see on the far wall the slo-mo replay of the winner crossing the wire in New York and Keith said, "....it looks like a white saddle cloth...." (which would me it was #2, which was our number).

Sure enough, she'd been TONS the best and I'd be cashing for over $30!  TWO big wins at Belmont, so that's a photo op!  In the finale my pick was Missile Bomb and Keith took the vast majority of his profits for the day and put it on him - he was 16/1 with ten minutes to go, then dropped to 8/1 and finally 4/1.  As they turned for home and he made his move for the lead I really thought Keith was about to cash for nearly $1000, but Missile Bomb could not get by - third.  We headed to the car and I dropped Keith off at his auto at the hotel and we headed out.  I was home by 9:30 - it was a great drive with it staying light until after 7:30 as I drove through the northern Kentucky hills.  First thing once I got home was I watched the replays from Santa Anita.  In the 2yo race, the Grade 1 Forerunner my pick Klimt was grossly overbet to 1/5 and trailed to the far turn.  FLYING late, but way too late, second.  In the Grade 1 Awesome Again, the prep for the Breeders' Cup Classic, the best horse in the world currently, California Chrome, romped under a hand ride.  You know if a 2yo was 1/5 he had to be 1/9, right?

Somehow he got away at 2/5 and my BET of the DAY investment got me back $140!  I had told Keith that the day's profit would be determined by Beholder's performance in the Grade 1 Zenyatta where she looked to get revenge on Stellar Wind who upset her in their last meeting.  I was certain she'd win because today she would NOT be forced to be on the front end and I think she's much more effective from off the pace.  Instead she went right to the front - Stellar Wind came to her at the top of the lane and they dueled to deep stretch before Stellar Wind edged clear, again.  For the day a solid 5-for-15, but lost a little money on the day.

It was a great racing adventure and yet another great trip to add to my collection of retirement trips!  Next up in two weeks, the solo cruise in France!

A Day at the Downs

October 1, 2016

Day at the Downs

While visiting my family in Ohio Keith and I met at Churchill Downs for a quick 36 hours and spent the day Saturday at Churchill Downs.  Like ALL racing adventures, multiple stories worth telling - just adds to the continuing fascinating adventures I am so fortunate to enjoy during my retirement! Two excellent tales to tell ..... for the detailed racing day, CLICK HERE

When I booked the trip I went to Expedia to find a hotel close to Churchill Downs and the Interstate for convenience.  Found a Howard Johnsons Express Inn and when I went to pay for it my Expedia account popped up a window saying, "Congratulations, you have earned enough points to pay for your hotel stay!"  So the hotel was FREE!  Next I needed to get a car for transportation from my Mom's home in Columbus to Louisville.  I tried adding on a car to my flight on Southwest airlines but when I went through the purchase process the total price was going to be $250 and change for a week's rental.  I don't think so.  I then googled car rental agencies close to the house and found one for about $110.  I'll take it!  Then when my Mom picked me up at the airport and I asked her about taking me to the car rental place late on Thursday she asked which agency it was.  When I said Enterprise she reminded me they would pick me up!  So I called them and arranged that, which also allowed me to cut a day off of the rental.  The Enterprise people picked me up about 10 am on Friday and I returned the car Sunday morning.  What could have been about a $400 weekend expense for hotel and car turned out to be less than $75!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!  The next great story to tell was about the first evening in Louisville.  Before leaving Columbus I asked my Mom if she could think of any good restaurants from when we used to visit Louisville that we could go to.  She said the only one she could think of off the top of her head was the Galt House - which is a VERY nice (and expensive) restaurant.  I knew we wouldn't want to spent that much money so I figured I'd ask at the hotel.  When we arrived Keith told me he had a place he wanted to try that was recommended to him from a guy he works with in Illinois who graduated from the University of Louisville.  The name of the restaurant is the "Troll Pub Under the Bridge."  Keith told me he was told it was right under a bridge, across the street from the basketball arena in downtown Louisville.  Because Keith had never been to Churchill Downs we decided to head over to the track and check it out.  This would enable Keith to get a Racing Form to handicap the races and get a quick tour of the iconic facility before the big race day.  As soon as we walked in I checked out the gift shop because for over five years I've been looking for a Churchill Downs polo shirt, but all they have had is Kentucky Derby shirts.  Even when we visited here in 2011 for the Breeders' Cup and 2013 for "Downs After Dark."  I'd looked many times online but to no avail.  But today, lo and behold a full selection and so I purchased one and a lapel pin!  We walked around and I showed Keith the "biggest jumbotron in the universe," the iconic twin spires, and where we'd sat for the Breeders' Cup (right on the rail at the 16th pole; where we had seats for the 2012 Kentucky Derby; and where we were - and planned to be tomorrow - for Downs After Dark in 2013.  We then headed over to the Derby Museum to check out the hours for tomorrow morning prior to our day at the races.  After finding out they opened at 8 am - plenty of time to see it all before racing began, we set out for dinner.  We found the pub using the GPS but as we "arrived at your destination" we could not see the pub until it was too late and we passed it.  Unfortunately we were on "the bridge" from the name of the place and this carried us across the river to Indiana!  We made a U-turn and found a parking lot right across the street.  We descended the stairs - a la "Cheers" and found a really cool pub with a unique menu.  But here's the best part....when we asked the waitress about what the building had originally been she told us that it was the ORIGINAL GALT HOUSE!  How ironic.....we were going to eat at the Galt House and in fact we did!  When we left the pub and looked, not only was it genuinely across the street from the arena, you literally could walk out of the arena after a U of L basketball game and within fifty yards be in the pub - after walking, as the name implies, under the bridge!  A very unique experience as you can tell from the photos below. 

We were both tired from a long day of driving and were asleep early.  Saturday morning we awoke, checked out and asked for a close by breakfast spot.  So happy to discover that within two blocks of us was one of my favorite breakfast restaurants, a Cracker Barrel!  By about 8:45 we were at Churchill Downs to check out the museum.  An added benefit was we had arrived before it cost to park and found a spot right on a side street, saving us $10.  Got inside the museum in time to see the next showing of their featured film, "The Greatest Day In Racing" followed by a half-hour tour of the Churchill Downs track which included a walk around the paddock and out to the track while learning several things about the history of Churchill Downs!  Didn't know we'd get to do that and it was very interesting, even to me who has been here several times and seen most of these things.  Pics from the morning's walk:  

We then headed into the museum and looked around for about an hour.  We had about an hour before the gates opened so we walked across the street, got a soft drink and chatted out in the car before goin inside.  We got box seats right on the finish line and found a table in the simulcast area to "hunker down" for the day.  I won two races on track and scored with three simulcast races from today's "Breeders' Cup Preview" programs at Belmont and Santa Anita, including my BET of the Day at Santa Anita with California Chrome.  More photos of the day and race-by-race analysis and stories can be found on my racing journal, click here.  Right after the final race we headed back to the hotel to pick up Keith's car, say good-bye and head out on our separate journeys.  The weather for the drive back was gorgeous and I made great time, arriving back in Columbus about 9:30 pm.  The end to another great adventure of my retirement!

A Day at the Downs

Recap Video