Phipps Week: June 10 - 14

What An AMAZING Week Of Handicapping

"You can't win them all."  Every sport says that, and there's no place where it's more true than in thoroughbred racing.  But I don't think you could envision a better five day week of handicapping and racing than this past week - which DID include a day where I DID win them all :)  Let's just get the big, gaudy numbers out of the way.....

How astounding is that?  Especially for a guy that plays for fun and doesn't invest big dollars?  Just one big day after the other.  Here's how it all played out.....

Wednesday June 10:  Gulfstream Park
Last week the racing re-opened in New York with racing at Belmont, but this week their first card of the week was on Thursday.  So if I was playing today - which was "eye-injection day" - it would be strictly at Gulfstream.  They had a feature race for three-year-olds that could easily have passed for a graded stakes as it attracted the winners of the Gr 2 Fountain of Youth, the Gr 3 Sam Davis, the Hutcheson Stakes, the Limehouse Stakes and the Smooth Air Stakes.  For the day I had five selections from the ten race card.  Missed in the opener then passed four in a row.  The last four picks took place while I was waiting to have my eye treated.  In the sixth it was a two-lifetime claiming event on the turf going five furlongs.  And I thought Remaster was a legitimate DRF Best Bet.  Two of her last three were vs. better and the three identical Beyer figures beat all but four of the combined 66 numbers on the page.  Surged in mid-stretch to edge clear late to score as the first winner of the week.

Dueled to the stretch before fading to 4th at 6/1 in the next.  Then in the eighth I thought I had a legitimate alternative to the favorite.  Heir Ball was sent to the front and dueled through wicked splits last time before weakening to be a best of the rest 2nd as the prohibitive favorite for $16K.  Today she was in an AOC with a $25K tag, which she carried having already won an entry level allowance.  But she was first off the claim for David Carlos who wins at a 37% clip with those.  Oh my.  Doubled the bet.  Right to the front and scored a wire-to-wire win.  But check the price out....

The morning line on Heir Ball was 7/2 and she floated all the way up to 5/1 and change - whooo hoooo.  This helped offset the fact that in the 3yo feature my worst fears came true when my top pick, the 6/5 favorite got caught in a speed duel and set up the late close from the legitimate closer in the field.  Still, I went 2-for-5 on the day and made over $40.  No complaints about that my friends!

Thursday June 12:  Belmont Park
For today I gave a cursory glance at the entries for Gulfstream and Churchill but like the looks of the Belmont card more, especially because they had a featured stakes event today.  Missed in both the second and the third before arriving at race four which was a maiden claiming event going a one-turn mile and a sixteenth.  There figured to be a heavy favorite, but I didn't like him despite the fact that it was a Chad Brown runner who'd been narrowly beaten in second twice.  I went with Creed, sent out by Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey.  Long known for NOT having them ready at first asking, you have to be paying attention when they DO run well first out.  Creed had debuted at the demanding seven furlong distance over the deep, sandy surface at Tampa Bay and closed strongly to be a good second in debut.  This stretch out off a solid beginning was ideal I thought.  Four horses dueled to the top of the stretch, included in them was the favorite.  Meanwhile Jockey Jose Ortiz waited patiently then blew by to win going away.  Creed paid a generous $7.60 so I cashed for nearly $40.

Had the obvious 6/5 favorite in the fifth, but he blew the turn into the lane and went at least ten wide, second.  Fourth in the 8th and then in the featured Flat Out Stakes going a mile and 3/8th I was against the Belmont winner Sir Winston.  He'd won the mile and a half Belmont as a big longshot and suddenly he's a "good" horse?  AND making his first start off the shelf and against older?  Nope.  I went with Todd Pletcher's Moretti.  Besides some other positives what appealed most was that no one and I mean N-O O-N-E in here would want the lead and Moretti was the ONLY one who'd EVER raced close to the front.  Now if jockey Javier Castellano could just see this.  Sure enough.  Right to the front, never took any pressure and took them easily wire-to-wire at a big 4/1.

Closed the day 2-for-6 but with two nice priced winners to score a $20+ profit for the day.

Friday June 13:  Churchill Downs
Again, shopped around for what card looked best.  And one thing that I was aware of was that today we'd be driving to Orlando so there'd be little time for handicapping and decision making.  I settled on the card from Louisville and had only four picks on the day.  Figured it would be a light day of racing generally and obviously a small number of winners.  But as is often the case, it's days like this where I have a big, winning day.  It's one of the things I love about racing.....you just never know when and where you're going to be a winning player!  The opener under the iconic Twin Spires was a pick that if you follow my handicapping, you'd NEVER have guessed I'd have been betting on.  The opener was a 6 1/2 furlong maiden claimer.  And while I often say there are "no rules" in handicapping, it's rare that I'll even consider a maiden who's already had six or more chances as a legitimate bet.  Much less one with double digit losses, MUCH LESS with fifteen, that's right - 15 losses.  But as I remarked in my analysis, "every horse has his day," and today looked to be THE day for Drop Dead Gorgeous.  While certainly concerned about the many defeats, but I liked the fact that in her TWELFTH loss she was claimed by trainer Steve Asmussen, for himself!  You know that a top conditioner is NOT going to spend his own money on a long-time maiden like that unless they have some ability.  First off the claim 'Gorgeous moved up to $40K and was a good third.  Dropped in for $30K she was a best-of-the-rest 2nd.  Third off the claim she made her next start here at a one-turn mile and was a photo finish 2nd while four clear of everyone else.  Three sharp efforts for a top trainer, and today dropping in for $10K she looked long gone.  She drew alongside the leaders at the top of the stretch and ran away, winning by nearly a pole as the 1/2 favorite.

The second at Churchill was a 2yo maiden special sprint.  I've struggled with juvenile races to this point but in here Hulen looked best - another Asmussen trainee.  He was making his debut today, but Asmussen does good work with those.  He had an outside draw which would mean a clean trip.  He had sharp works, so I knew he'd be ready to run.  As important the others in the field either had been badly outrun in their races where they had experience or came from barns that had little success with debut runners.  Hulen was fourth turning for home, but split horses, wore down the leaders and edged clear late.  Two for two :)

Passed the next three.  In the sixth I thought it was pretty obvious that the winner would be one of the two program favorites, but which one?  Ballagh Rocks was a multiple turf winner and showed a series of races with triple digit Beyers in his pp's.  But those races had come months ago and his last FIVE were sketchy.  True, he was dropping today, but I preferred Euro import Set Piece.  Brad Cox was taking over the Euro who'd fired a bullet work for today's first North American start.  Thought maybe I had the wrong one as they spun out of the turn and Ballagh Rocks was third, making a move into the clear while Set Piece was dead last.  But Florent Geroux asked and the response was immediate.  Circled the field and caught 'Rocks at the furlong marker.  They dueled for a sixteenth of a mile and then my top choice pulled clear to win going away.

THREE for THREE!  And the final selection of the day was my "best bet."  The ninth was a maiden special event going a mile on the turf.  Two Chad Browns in the line-up and of the two I liked Greyes Creek.  He had experience - the other was a first timer - and what I thought was key was that leading rider Tyler Gaffalione probably had his choice of the two and landed on 'Creek.  In his last he was coming off a SIXTEEN month layoff and despite being forced to steady he was only beaten 3 1/2 lengths.  That his connections didn't give up on him and/or put him in for a tag off such a long layoff were positives.  He tracked the field confidently in fifth the the far turn.  Split horses to swing into the clear and blew by quickly.  Suddenly more than half a dozen clear in a sixteenth of a mile, he won geared down as TONS the best, wrapped up under the wire.

FOUR - for - FOUR, what a day.  Collected a profit of over SIXTY dollars.  What a week I'm having :)

Saturday June 13:  Ogden Phipps Day at Belmont
Today I was playing both Belmont and Santa Anita.  I handicapped the card on Thursday and knowing we'd be with the grandson (and his parents) I was cognizant that I didn't want to have a "full day" or racing.  So I only looked at the two venues and was fairly conservative in my selections.  Passed the first two in NY and in the third Primacy was going to be odds-on.  Listed at 2/5 in the program you know he would not be a "money maker."  He was being pounded early and so I re-examined the options and decided to raise the wager a click, from a double to a triple investment.  Broke slowly, but when asked to run on the far turn he swooped by and scored by daylight, in hand and under wraps.

From that race at 2:20 until the third at Santa Anita at 5 pm I had two bets.  Ran eighth at nearly 30/1 in New York and then 4th at 6/5 in the second at Santa Anita.  In the fifth out west Marenesa looked quite similar to Primacy.  Listed at 4/5 in the program she looked much the best here.  In her most recent the winner had been a dozen clear and the runner up eleven and change clear of Marenesa who was open lengths clear of the rest of the field.  She stalked a 50/1 leader to the top of the lane, then blew by as easily best.

Two for four, but losing money.  At this point as I turned to the second page of selections I'd have had a hard time believing today was going to be a big day.  Especially after running a dismal 10th in the next at Belmont at 5/2 odds.  Then I went on a tear.  At Santa Anita Worthy Turk was pounded down to 1/5 favoritism in a two-lifetime one mile turf event.  She'd been off since 2018 before her three back race where she ran sharply in a turf sprint here; then ran well in a Golden Gates sprint.  Returned to Arcadia and was a best-of-the-rest second while four clear of the show at this level and distance despite being wide.  Flavian Prat had the call.  She was third into the lane behind multiple runners.  Found a seam, hit high gear and close with a rush to be just up in time.

Next was the featured Grade 1 Ogden Phipps.  As I looked over the field, and I said this in my analysis, I thought this was a fairly mediocre edition of what's typically a strong event.  The first conclusion I came to when I looked over the field was that I did not like either of the top two favorites, at all.  Ollie's Candy - who it was difficult to bet against being with my grandson Oliver for the weekend! - was a So Cal shipper with speed.  But, she'd run in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom and had been two lengths clear in the stretch, only to be run down.  And that was going two turns, which was "her deal."  I thought (a) that had to be a taxing effort, (b) the one-turn mile and a sixteenth trip would NOT play into her wheel house, (c) there would be other speed and (d) she'd be overbet.  Toss.  The likely alternative was Point of Honor.  As a 3yo last year she'd won two stakes for me.  But when she returned in a light allowance event this winter at Tampa she was beaten.  Maybe you say she could move forward, but she'd been soundly beaten in the aforementioned Apple Blossom.  No again.  I could easily toss several others, but one that made me pause was Steve Asmussen's She's A Julie.  First, the name - my daughter's - has led to her being a favorite of mine.  Second, she is a Gr 1 winner and a talented runner.  She'd run without much interest, though to be fair she broke slowly, in a stakes at Churchill a month ago behind Chad Brown's Dunbar Road.  But, she's had her best success there in Louisville and you KNOW there are races on their schedule that would fit her.  Why is she shipping here?  And even more intriguing, why was regular rider Ricardo Santana coming along and forfeiting all his mounts at Churchill Downs?  At 8/1 in the program she was my "Upset Special."  As I watched the pre-race analysis show, NYRA analyst Andy Serling announced, with disdain that She's A Julie didn't have a chance.  I've never been a fan of his, and particularly disliked the was he treated Acacia Courtney one winter when he was wintering at Gulfstream (interestingly he wasn't invited back).  His whole "thing" is to be caustic and if you don't agree with him, you're stupid and he'll say so rudely on air.  Just made me all the more wanting She's A Julie to win.  As the field swung into the far turn a long shot with no chance led, but Ollie's Candy took over.  She's A Julie and Point of Honor began to move at the same time and I thought, "she's got a real chance here."  With a sixteenth to go Ollie's Candy was two clear but She's A Julie was surging and Point of Honor was closing......three-way photo but I was pretty certain, I WON!  And the post time odds - a HUGE 14/1!

The payoff of $31 and change led to a return of nearly $80.  WHAT A DAY....take that Mr. Serling :)  Next was another maiden event at Santa Anita going seven furlongs on the main track.  Blazing Charm had debuted last time out and hesitated at the start, spotting the field multiple lengths.  Closed with a rush to be second and two behind her have already returned to win.  Tripled the bet.  As they began to come out of the turn jockey Flavian Pratt was saving ground but behind a wall of four horses.  He waited patiently - had no way to swing wide - and a seam appeared to open, so he asked for run, but the outside horse veered in and the hole shut.  He took a hold of her as the rail horse was drifting off the barrier.  Dove inside and accelerated just as one of the late runners was surging on the outside.  Got through and JUST UP in the nick of time, my third in a row at Santa Anita!

We now come to the Belmont finale and what was my BEST of the day, Todd Pletcher's Bean Counter.  It was a starter allowance going a mile over the New York turf.  And to be sure, the fact that she'd compiled a 7/1-3-1 lifetime record was a concern.  She was exiting back-to-back near misses at this distance - another concern.  And today she was moving from a $40K starter to a $50K starter, again - cause for concern.  BUT three of her last four Beyers, which have been ascending, beat ALL 94 numbers compiled by the rest of the field.  Again, we go to the curmudgeon Mr. Serling.  In the preshow he was quoted as saying, "Bean Counter is a dunce cap horse - has no chance.  If she wins I'll take the dunce cap out of my office and put it on for tomorrow's show."  Man the guy is outspoken and has such a high opinion of his own opinions.  As they turned for home Bean Counter was sitting in fourth waiting for room to run.  A seam opened at the sixteenth pole and she shot through at just the right moment to SCORE!

My sixth win - lost the last bet at Santa Anita - but with the big day of wins I had a 60% win rate and had made over $100 for the day.  YOWZA!!!

Sunday:  June 14 - Texas Champions Day
I went back and forth about what to do today.  Because we'd be in Orlando I thought I didn't want to spend time handicapping when I could be with the family.  But I knew I'd probably have some windows of "down time" to handicap.  But looking over the entries I wasn't interested in any of the "major" tracks.  But Saturday morning I looked at Lone Star Park in Texas.  They were hosted the Texas-bred "Texas Day of Champions" Day which had previously been run at Sam Houston Park.  But this year there'd been a transformer blown that cancelled the racing that night so they'd been rescheduled for this afternoon/evening at Lone Star.  Decided to look them over and try to find some good plays.  And it was a bonus that the first post wasn't until after 4 pm so none of my picks would go off until we had made the return trip to Fort Lauderdale.  Worked out nicely that way as I passed the first two, which were both non-stakes events.  In the third She's Out Fastest looked very strong and was bet to 3/5 favoritism in the 6f Yellow Rose of Texas Stakes.  But from the get-go she was four wide and never saved an inch of ground.  An even fifth without every picking up her feet.  The fourth featured last year's winner of the Spirit of Texas trying to defend his title, albeit at a different track.  Direct Dial had won last year's event off a third place finish in an OPEN stakes.  Followed the same pattern this year, but with the delay in running trainer Steve Asmussen used a allowance at Will Rogers Downs.  Ran third also but two exited that race to come back and win.  Direct Dial circled the field, every bit as wide as the pick in the previous race but when he hit the top of the lane he accelerated off.  Cleared the field and won going away.

The fifth was a nine furlong turf event, the Richard King Turf.  Very little experience at the extended trip but last year's winner, Redatory was back.  DRF analyst Mary Rampellini noted he was, "...one of the marquee names on the card...." and he put on a show.  Pressed the 5/2 second choice to the top of the lane, moved on even terms and the two laid it down the length of the stretch before finally Redatory edged clear in the shadow of the wire to win a tight photo.

Missed in the Groovy Stakes for 3yo with what I labeled the one pick I had the least confidence in.  Gold Pilot was a closing 2nd with a big late kick at 9/5.  In the seventh, the filly companion race, the Bara Lass, Always Inthe Munny looked MUCH stronger despite relatively similar running lines.  I just thought that her last out 83 Beyer, best in the field was just a harbinger of a move forward.  Right to the front and when the pressers were asked her jockey flicked his wrists and she was gone by more than a pole.  Immensely impressive.

Closed the night with a 3rd at 2/1 to finish 3-for-6, with a second and a third, and a profit for the night.  But for the week - an amazing SEVENTEEN wins and well over $300 in profit.

Phipps Week Racing Highlights

Summer Racing: June 3 - 7

Welcome Back To National Racing!

You can't find anyone more grateful than I to Gulfstream Park for keeping the racing alive during the pandemic, but you also won't find anyone more delighted to have racing on a national stage than me as I got to play race selections from all over the country this week.  And it was an excellent week of results with my selections scoring at a near-40% clip.  And I know you can make numbers say anything, but the facts are these.....take away the "off day" I had Friday (1-for-9) and the other three days saw my picks hit at a 44% clip.  WHOOOO HOOOOO.  Here's how the first week of summer played out for me.

Wednesday June 3

The new summer schedule has racing from Gulfstream on Wednesday, Friday-Sunday.  And with the "big tracks" opening up the "big names" of the sport have largely moved out of town.  So, I'll spend a lot less time playing the local races and a lot more traveling around the country, virtually.  And today was opening day at Belmont Park.  I enjoy playing the NYRA circuit and today was an excellent way to return to New York for thoroughbred handicapping selections.  I was surprised when the first pick of the week, an off-the-turf selection from Gulfstream was a lame 7th at 5/2 odds.  But in the second pick of the day I scored in a two-turn claiming event where War Giant was much the best.  To be fair he was 3/5 in the program so it wasn't any great handicapping insights that brought him to the page, but he was plunging out of much better races so it was a bit of a "gamble" to play him.  Because of that I had him listed as a double bet.  But the pre-race analysis and the betting led me to up the investment to a triple level bet.  Had to work late after running a very fast middle segment, but a daylight winner.

Got my first win at Belmont in their third which was a maiden special for two-year-olds.  As soon as I saw the race conditions I considered just moving on, but then I saw the Wesley Ward runner and I knew that one would be vulnerable.  And there was a Todd Pletcher 2yo with Irad Ortiz up and running in the colors of top NY owner and Pletcher client Michael Repole.  The two dueled into the lane before Prisoner drew off leaving the odds-on Fauci (yes, just like the "guru" for the pandemic) languishing as a well-beaten second.

Missed with the 3/5 favorite in GP's 6th but came right back with a nice score in my second bet at Belmont.  Business Cycle showed one of my favorite angles in claiming races, the "re-claim."  Gary Gullo had claimed this guy in December and ran an improved figure in his first start, then scored in his next under jockey Manny Franco.  But he was claimed away.  Ran second for the new connections but Gullo took him right back and put Franco up.  Four works since his last start.  Raced mid-pack in seventh/eighth some eight off the lead then split horses on the turn, moved five wide into the lane and drew off.  The $8.30 payoff led to a return of over $40 and I was clearly in the black for the day.

Again a loss at Gulfstream with a short-priced favorite (fifth and last at 3/2) but then nailed the front running winner in a six furlong turf sprint in New York.  Strongerthanuknow streaked right to the front and never was challenged winning easily as I cashed for almost $30.

Finally missed a pick in NY at 9/5 when third and another at Gulfstream (4th at 9/5).  Then in the eighth at Belmont we were going a mile on the turf in a second level allowance event.  As I looked over the past performances I was struck with how contentious the field was and that you could go any one of several ways with some degree of confidence.  For me I thought the potential ability of Chad Brown's Value Proposition out-weighed the form that was proven by the other contenders.  He was lightly raced, ran in the powerful Klaravich Stable silks and had Irad Ortiz up.  Sat mid-pack to the top of the stretch then mounted a strong rally.  Collared the new leader at the sixteenth pole and edged clear in the final fifty yards.  The best part......went off at 9/2 and paid $11.20 so I cashed for almost $60 to seal a winning day.

Next up was the Opening Day feature, the Grade 3 Beaugay going a mile on the turf.  Chad Brown sent out multiple Grade 1 winning Rushing Fall in here and right away when I read that story online I knew she'd be the bet.  But when I opened the program there was Got Stormy who had won the Gr 2 Barauch at Saratoga against the boys and was 2nd best in the Gr 1 BC Mile against the boys.  She'd been hot and cold since then and the questions were.... (a) would her having raced recently give her an edge over the return-for-a-layoff Rushing Fall and (b) was Got Stormy a little dull today.  The answers were no and yes.  Rushing Fall hadn't seen Gr 3 company in a LONG time and had fired fresh every time.  AND she looked like the lone speed if Javier Castellano got her away cleanly.  And I'd seen Got Stormy in all three starts in 2020 and just didn't look the same.  I did think that the connections must have had some confidence because she would have been odds-on in a $100K listed event at Gulfstream two weeks ago but she scratched to run here.  They ran 1-2 to the top of the lane with Rushing Fall dictating terms in a good but not too fast pace.  We'd see now as Tyler Gaffalione asked Got Stormy to accelerate.  She moved within a half length but then Castellano let Rushing Fall go and she drew off very impressively as the BEST BET of the Day.

For the day I finished 6-for-11 and won nearly $100.  It was a VERY good Wednesday.

Thursday / Friday June 4 - 5
I didn't like the looks of the Thur card at Belmont and was in a quandary, so I handicapped the Charles Town races for Thursday night.  But once I was finished I didn't think I had any real advantage so I didn't play.  Friday was a huge disappointment after the way Wednesday went.  A lowly 1-for-9 with the winner being a 1/5 shot at Belmont.  Moving on.

Saturday June 6
Now I should list today as "Santa Anita Derby Day," and I DID win three races there.  But NONE of them were any of the multiple stakes events on the card.  Still, for the day I won ten times and it was a very good day of racing.  I missed at Woodbine - like playing there with their synthetic track but in the third at Gulfstream I liked the obvious odds-on favorite, Combination.  He'd won five of his last six starts AND did it for four different trainers.  Today he was first off the claim again today and I did think it was a valid point brought up by the on-air analysts as to how long he could keep good form while changing barns.  But, I didn't think today would be the day he went south.  Ranged up under a patented Paco ride, including the look back under the arm turning for home and jogged home as much, MUCH the best.  I'd originally planned to play the minimum but upped it to a triple investment and collected nearly $25 on the first win of the day.

Not all that uncommon to up the bet but from minimum to triple investment is pretty rare.  Nice to be right, obviously.  After a miss at Belmont I had the first of three "big time" bets, this one at Churchill Downs in their third, a marathon turf event in a no conditions allowance race.  Gentle Ruler looked REALLY hard to go past.  She'd won five of her last seven, all at this eleven furlong trip or longer.  And she posted Beyer figures of 92 in all of them - which would win here.  And the last three came in stakes races, two of them graded.  She had a recent race, unlike many of today's rivals when second  behind loose on the lead Mean Mary in the Gr 3 Orchid.  She was bottled up to the top of the stretch when finally getting into the clear.  She was grinding away on the leaders, caught the front runner at the 16th pole but that one would not give in.  A thrilling duel, PHOTO FINISH.

PHOTO FINISH - Gentle Rule (#4) Outside

WIN!  With the prime time play I got back almost $40, nice.  Back-to-back-to-back 2nd place finishes with odds-on favorites before it was time for the first of the three stakes on the Gulfstream Park Card, the Soldier's Dancer.  As I said to Kim later in the day, it's interesting to me that when I first started following thoroughbred racing seriously the majority of stakes were named after legendary stars of the sport.  And while that's still true today, so many of them NOW carry the names of horses I have seen run.  I'm NOT getting old :)  This one is named after one of my favorite Calder Race Course turf stars.  He won so many races for me, including a big graded event at Santa Anita that he made my "Wall of Fame" when I had more than twenty large framed photos on my "office" wall (photo at left).  But back to today's race.  It was a short field that seemed evenly matched.  But I liked the chances of Muggsamatic who I'd had on Sunshine Millions Day.  He was a good fit for this level of competition and he could stalk the pace without getting into trouble.  The first sign of trouble came when the field was heading down the backstretch and I was in last (of five) behind very slow fractions and announcer Pete Aiello called out jockey Paco Lopez on another horse.  Wait, what?  Did I miss that?  Apparently.  As they turned for home Paco was challenging and I was spinning my wheels, buried inside and with no apparent interest in running.  But at the furlong marker it was almost like 'Muggsy woke up and said, "Oh hey, we're racing?" because he switched into the clear and sprinted right past the entire field to win going away.

WHOOO HOOOO.  And he paid a generous $7.40 allowing me to cash for nearly $40.  About an hour until the next race where I was 2nd at Churchill and then it was time for the co-featured Ginger Brew Stakes at Gulfstream going the same mile and a sixteenth as the Soldier's Dancer had gone, also on the turf.  While I was confident in Muggsamatic in the first turf feature, I was even more confident with Kelsey's Cross in this one for fillies & mares.  In her last five straight races she'd faced graded stakes runners and today was in a restricted stakes for $100K.  She had traffic trouble being caught between and behind runners to the far turn, but once she got clear she came flying down the center of the course and ran away as much, MUCH the best.

And like Muggsamatic, somehow she left the gate at better than 5/2 odds so I cashed for nearly $40 again.  YOWZA.  Four straight misses, including the "BEST" of the day in the featured Game Face at Gulfstream where Boerne didn't make the lead and finished second at even money.  It's a humbling game that requires you to be even keeled through the highs and the lows....not only for a season, a month, or a week, but even more so during the course of a single day at the races.  I was following the live racing via Xpressbet online but I was also watching the TVG broadcast.  As I was awaiting the next race TVG analyst Christina Blacker - who's an excellent handicapper - said on air that in the second race at Santa Anita she'd be shocked if Herd Immunity wasn't the winner at a short price.  My ears perked up and I started paying attention.  She said, "....and here's why...."  On Friday a first time starting 2yo named Bolden had absolutely galloped as tons the best in a maiden special race.  Herd Immunity had worked with that one for the same trainer and they worked in tandem with identical work times.  "No one in this field has that kind of talent displayed by Bolden" she commented.  In all the years I've followed TVG I don't ever remember hearing Blacker being so definitive.  Good enough for me.  I put a double investment on the colt.  He didn't break cleanly and the idea that he'd wire the field in hand as his stablemate had done Friday was out the window.  But he raced professionally between horses, surged to the front.  Was challenged from the outside, but put that one away and opened up to win going away.  Collected over $15 on the "freebie" selection - THANKS Christina!  As I told Kim when telling her the story on this winner, you have to be willing to use any resource at your disposal when trying to pick winners in this game.  And that includes when someone "knows" something and shares it with you, even on national television :)

This kicked off a string of winners for me.  In the next race at Santa Anita Kneedeepinsnow was pointed out by DRF analyst Brad Free.  'Snow had come back off a five month layoff, moving synthetic to real dirt and dueled gate to wire through sizzling fractions only to lose by a head.  He was the LONE front runner in the field and looked to get loose on the easiest of leads.  Right to the front and LONG GONE.  Another near-$25 to the winnings.  Just as Kneedeepinsnow was crossing the line they were in the gate at Belmont for the Grade 3 Westchester.  Last summer's Travers winner Code of Honor was making his 4yo debut today and he was clearly the class of the field.  While I'd say "you have a point" if you went against on the basis that today's the day to beat him as he goes off the shelf with obviously bigger fish to fry down the road.  But I'd counter with the fact that Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey doesn't run his horses to "get one in them;" - if they're running, they are trying.  Was a bit concerned as a big rain storm hit New York and it was so hard that seeing the distant gate for this one-turn mile and a sixteenth test was a challenge.  One of the other favorites slipped up the rail to the front turning for home as Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez got Code of Honor underway three wide into the lane.  He swooped up with all the momentum, caught the leader and they dueled for a sixteenth of a mile before he edged clear late.

My seventh win of the day and third in a row.  The next race on the sheet was the Grade 3 Aristides at Churchill Downs, a six furlong sprint.  When I analyzed the race I put Honor Mischief on top who could take advantage of the speed to run late.  But as I watched the pre-race analysis prior to the start of the racing program both analysts talked about how "obvious" Volatile was in this spot.  I looked back at what I'd written and I'd made him third choice.  He was an improving type and had run huge last time out.  My initial thought was he might bounce today.  But they were so convinced in their opinion - and part of my thinking was that NEITHER of these two guys like to go with the favorite - that I reconsidered and changed the pick and upped the bet.  Volatile pressed a sharp pace while three wide.  As they turned for home Honor Mischief slipped through on the rail and I briefly thought, "uh oh," but then Violence opened up and widened to more than half a dozen clear by the furlong pole.  He was geared down through the final sixteenth and that's important because the teletimer flashed 1:07.5 just two clicks off the track record.  WOW.  Trainer Steve Asmussen and jockey Ricardo Santana had teamed up to win the Breeders' Cup Sprint last fall and this may be their champion this year.  THAT was impressive.

In the next race on the sheet I openly wrote in my analysis and told Kim as the horses walked to the gate that I more HOPED that this horse would win than I thought she would.  At the 2018 Breeders' Cup held at Churchill Downs, on "Future Stars Friday" the most sensational, eye-catching and "WOW" moment of the day, arguably one of the top two for the weekend, came when the 2yo filly Newspaperofrecord romped in the Grade 1 Juvenile Filly Turf.

But when she ran last year as a 3yo she went winless.  She ran credibly in her first two - a poorly judged ride I thought in the first start, and in the second just didn't have enough to hold on.  Her third start was dismal and she went to the bench.  So today I was hopeful she'd return to form for trainer Chad Brown.  I couldn't imagine that he'd bring back such a talent in this Grade 3, seven furlong turf event, the Intercontinental Stakes, if he didn't believe she was "back."  So I was hoping for a big effort that would lead everyone to say, "she's back!"  She has such speed and I wondered about the softness in the turf after the big rain storm, but I also remembered that on Breeders' Cup Friday it had been gloomy, overcast and there'd been rain.  The latch sprung and Newspaperofrecord went right to the front.  She went fast through the opening half mile and as she led them into the stretch I had the thought, "...the 'old Newspaper of record would spurt away / the 3yo version would give it up...." and I held my breath.  Jockey Irad Ortiz gave her the "GO" sign and she kicked into another gear and ran away.  YES!

Again, like earlier.....the highs and lows.  Four straight big wins, including the "emotional" score in with the filly.  Now came not one, not two, but three straight second place finishes.  I got another win at Santa Anita to snap the streak when I had my third and final BIG BET.  Most uncharacteristic, but I was willing to go "all in" on a first time starter.  WHAT???  Bob Baffert trained $3.65 million sales grad Cezanne and his works were sensational.  He was so heralded that they were saying on the TVG broadcast that in the Kentucky Derby Future Wagers he was 16/1 - and he'd never even run a race yet (note the favorite at this early juncture is just 6/1).  I will say it was a jaw-dropping, "WOW" performance, but he raced professionally inside, was taken back off the pace, then was between runners.  And when asked to kick on he did and opened up willingly.  All of those things are NOT typical of first time starters, so I'll be most anxious to see his next start.

Ended the day with three losses, including in the featured Santa Anita Derby where I "knew" that the second choice would probably beat me, but I couldn't go against Authentic, who I still think is the better horse.  Finished with ten wins - nice - and had a good day.

Sunday June 7
I considered not playing today. But when I went to see the free Churchill Downs past performances it was BOTH Churchill and Belmont so I decided to look at both.  I spent a LOT longer handicapping for today than I typically would a Sunday, but in the end I had a dozen selections.  I was watching the races on Fox Sports, "America's Day At The Races" with Gulfstream hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney in her new digs because the telecast carried both these tracks.  In waiting for the races I listened to the Churchill pre-race day analysis and both guys remarked about the "key scratch" in the opener - MY HORSE!  And they both agreed (and neither like to play favorites) that Have No Fear would be odds on and would win for fun as the lone speed.  Right to the front and never in danger.

In the second pick of the day, the second at Belmont we were on the turf for an entry level allowance.  And here's a great example of how great thoroughbred racing is!  It's the second race on a Sunday and I've just got a minimum bet but it was one of THE most "WOW" races I've seen and maybe will lead to some big stakes wins down the line.  You have to watch the replay video for the week to truly appreciate what Domestic Spending did.  This was a last out Tampa maiden winner for Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz running in the Klaravich colors.  It was the "Tampa thing" coupled with being a last out maiden that made me hesitate on betting more.  But the field looked evenly matched and the connections were good so I was on board.  Left the gate as no secret being the 3/2 favorite but trailed turning for home.  Then Domestic Spending began to accelerate noticeably picking off runners.  But in mid-stretch he ducked in sharply which cost him multiple lengths.  Too late to get to the emerging leader, but in the final two hundred yards he truly kicked in the afterburners and just blew by.  Visually a WOW race.

When Acacia and her NY partner came back on the air her first words were, "Pardon us for a moment as Andy and I pick our jaws off the ground after that performance."  Just really something.  And I completed a perfect 3-for-3 start to the day with one of the two "best" bets of the day.  Right after the win I told Kim the story of this race because while I enjoy EVERY win, some have better stories than others, and this one had a good story.  Quiet Company was the favorite in a Churchill Downs maiden event going a mile on the turf.  The problem was she was already an eight-time maiden.  Over my "limit" for maidens normally, but "there are no rules in handicapping!"  Looking more closely you discovered that five of the eight were on the main track, toss.  And the three turf races netted a 2nd and a 3rd place finish.  So now the 3/0-1-1 resume is a lot more appealing.  Now look more carefully at the turf races.....the first two were in sprints and ONLY the last one was going two turns - at this one mile distance and she was a just-miss second.

She tracked the 12/1 front runner from third into the stretch, accelerated to the front and drew clear late at a generous (I thought all things considered) 7/5 allowing me to cash for nearly $40.  I'm having a very good day.

Missed on three in a row, ironically all third place finishes at short prices before I had another "great story" winner.  The seventh at Churchill was an entry level turf sprint and to me that was a mixed bag of runners.  But by the numbers only five Beyers from the combined 42 career starts of the rivals facing Lead Guitar, my pick (and the post time favorite) could match ALL FOUR BEYERS she'd run.  And three of those competitive figures had been earned on the main track.  I don't often use the Brisnet past performances, but when I do one stat that points out a lot of winners is when their "Prime Power" number is significantly better than the rest of the field.  In this case Lead Guitar had a 141.7 and the next highest was 126.2....normally there MIGHT be a three point spread with a decisive favorite - oh.  But when the gates opened she was left standing there spotting the field at least five lengths if not more.  Jockey Tyler Gaffalione was smart and didn't try to rush her.  Let her get into stride and as they hit the far turn he was within shouting range and moving.  Turning for home she was among runners and had work to do when he got her clear on the outside.  Then in much the same fashion as Domestic Spending, but trust me not the same "oh my" burst of speed, but still an amazing kick she inhaled the field and won going away.

WHOOO HOOO - cashed for nearly $20.  Fifteen minutes later I was heading to the winner's circle with another impressive winner.  The seventh at Belmont was another entry level allowance on the turf.  The first clue in a very evenly matched field was the connections - Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz, Klaravich Stables.  Secondly, in five of her six races she'd been on the board and the only "off the board" finish came when fifth beaten 2 1/2 lengths with the trouble comment, "....stymied in the stretched, steadied repeatedly...." - I think we can forgive that one.  With a legitimate pace and clean trip I thought she looked much better than her form might indicate.  She was a tepid 9/5 favorite as they headed down the backstretch and as I watched I was curious why Ortiz didn't seem to be asking anything at all of her as she sat in the back half of the field.  Then on the turn he flicked his wrists and she moved freely, picking off horses one by one.  Swept up five wide into the lane, got to the front and before you could say "Aunt Jemimah's Pancakes" she was six in front and long gone.  YOWZA.

Cashed for nearly $30.  STILL having a very nice day.  Missed in the last three picks of the afternoon and was left with one late race.  I went back and forth about betting the national feature race, the Grade 1 Malibu at seven furlongs at Santa Anita.  Without even looking at the past performances, CLEARLY Bob Baffert's McKenzie was the most talented in the field as a multiple Grade 1 winner.  But he is typically a two-turn horse.  Today was his "let's get started" race.  And watching the TVG pre-race analysis they talked about how the immediate target was the Grade 1 Met Mile at Belmont where he'd been a troubled 2nd last year.  The analysts debated was this a prep or a "for real" run.  And the consensus, especially from Christina Blacker (see above for Saturday's helpful tip) was that Baffert would want him to run well and win as a confidence booster and a stepping stone to the Met Mile, not "just get a race in him."  The crowd pounded him at 1/5 early but as post time approached he floated up to a more than generous 1/2 price.  Sat confidently on the outside under Mike Smith - who'd been removed from McKenzie after the Met Mile debacle last year but earned the mount back today.  Glided up into the lane and when asked, kicked away with authority under a hand ride.

Finished the day 6-for-12 and I was very, VERY delighted I'd played today :)

Summer Racing:  Week One Highlights

Final Week Of Spring Racing Season

Slow Week / Photo Finish Saturday

With the turn of the page to June we move into Summer Racing Season and I'm so thankful that in the past couple of weeks we've seen the racing community grow as Santa Anita, Laurel and Churchill Downs all opened.  Keeneland announced a special, stakes-filled five-day meet in mid-July.  Belmont opens this coming week and next Saturday is Santa Anita Derby Day.  And the best news of all..... every Friday I listen to the Defoe show on the radio and they typically broadcast from the breezeway at Gulfstream as he's a "degenerate gambler" as he refers to himself....loves the ponies.  Well, obviously he's been unable to be on site and has been broadcasting from home.  But this Friday he announced next Friday he will be at Gulfstream Park and that plans are in the works, maybe even for THIS WEEK to have fans back at Gulfstream Park!  Oh how cool would that be!  Here's how the slow week played out.

Thursday - Friday
Well, honestly there isn't much to discuss about these two days.  And I should have known better with my selections/bets.  As I handicapped the Thursday card I had two thoughts.  One, I really didn't think we'd be on the turf which often makes the race a completely new dynamic of runners and two, by and large the card "felt" like a typical Gulfstream spring/summer card where there is really very little to hang your hat on.  I've found during the Championship Season I'll have six to ten bets a day on a Gulfstream card and the rest of the year two or three tops.  Well, both of my assumptions proved to be true.  Off the turf so my first bet wasn't until Race 4 (6th at 3/1).  And late in the day two odds-on, "everybody knows they'll win" picks did not win.  Genghis was 2/5 and finished second after a horrific trip from start to finish in the 7th and in the 9th and finale (which was odd in and of itself that there were only nine races today) Shez Stuck Up, a MTO who laid over the field was wide throughout and no match for the inside front-running second choice - 2nd at 4/5 odds.  And so we went to Friday's card still looking for the first win of the week.  On Friday the first and third were off the turf and I had a pick in both.  But after listening to the analysis and looking at the board for the opener I decided to forego the bet.  Good thing....the horse I put on top ran fifth while my second choice scored.  In the 2nd I was the 7/5 favorite in a 2yo maiden event....took the lead, but ran greenly and got collared late, second.  In the third, off the turf led to MTO Combination who looked MUCH the best on paper.  And despite being wide from his post from the start, through the turn, and into the lane he galloped out under mild urging as TONS the best to give me my first winner of the week.

In the 4th I was wide throughout and 7th at 3/1 on the grass.  Led into the lane in a 5f turf sprint in the 7th at 7/2 but weakened to be third after going :21.1 for the opening quarter.  I had what I thought was the inside speed in another turf sprint in the ninth but was out-quicked to the front and then was steadied on the turn.  Sixth at 2/1.  And in the finale I was the 6/5 favorite, "everyone's single" and was way, WAY too far back in a one-turn mile.  Rallied for a non-threatening second place finish.

Saturday May 30th
My plan was to play Gulfstream, Santa Anita and Churchill Downs.  But on Thursday it was announced that Laurel was opening and so I decided to play there.  And then when I got the free Brisnet pp's for Churchill they came with the pp's for Tampa so I played there as well.  Should have stuck with my original plan because I even said to Kim, today was "just a day" where it would be hard to find horses at any venue who had a true advantage.  Sure I could find bets, but not like I normally would find on a Saturday.  In the opener at Laurel where all day, every horse was coming off of extended layoffs, I ran 12th at 3/1 after stumbling to my nose out of the gate to lose all chance.  Ran third as the 3/2 favorite in the opener at Churchill.  At Tampa I was concerned when I'm A G Six was taken to the back in a six horse field going a mile-40, but top rider Antonio Gallardo (who was a 42% winner for this barn) handled him confidently and he blew by late to score.

I went against the favorite in Gulfstream's third, even though he was my first inclination to make my win bet on.  Took Nothins Free as the "loose on the lead" type.  Right call as he led into the lane and opened up going a one-turn mile.  But the :45 half was too quick and he was reeled in late, finishing third.  The "highlight" of the Saturday card came in the third at Churchill Downs.  It was a maiden special going nine furlongs on the turf.  I liked Elle M'a Souri who'd already gone down to defeat in six starts with three very close seconds and a third.  Either she just didn't have the will to win or had been really unlucky.  I thought the distance would help and I also believed she'd run well despite excuses.  Today was the day (or it would be time to give up on her).  As the field spun out of the far turn into the long Churchill stretch she found herself daylight behind the second choice in the betting with work to do.  But she accelerated and was gaining ground with every stride.  The two fillies hit the wire together (see the photo at the top of the page, the middle photo).  I thought but was not sure that she'd won.  The numbers came up and it was the #4, I'm a winner!  Went off at a generous - I thought - 9/5 and with my triple investment yielded a return of over $40.  With two wins from my first five picks I thought I was about to have a big day.  Not so fast Webby.

Ran 4th at Tampa at 3/5 and third at 8/5 at Laurel before we came to the fourth at Gulfstream.  I thought there two very legitimate and evenly matched runners in this MSW turf event going a mile.  To me what separated Ocean Air from North Broadway was that jockey Irad Ortiz who often rides the best Chad Brown runners, had opted for Ocean Air over the Brown filly, North Broadway.  But for what ever reason, that one scratched.  So I re-read my analysis and looked at the pp's and thought, well, without the "other" top choice, North Broadway is the play.  Got a great ride and proved much, MUCH too good for this field to win as the 3/2 favorite.

By now it's about 2:30 in the afternoon and I've only had eight picks, but won with three of them so I'm STILL thinking I'm going to have a really good day.  Little did I know that I would only get to the winner's circle three more times over the next four hours of racing.  Over the next eight races and hour and a half on the clock I had eight selections and finished second four times and third four times.  And at odds from 6/1 to 2/5.  My trip comments:  "way too far back; led, caught; wide throughout; five wide in a five horse field; late bid; 3-to-5 wide into stretch; bid,, flat; edged to the front, caught on the wire."  Frustrating to say the least.  This brought me to the eighth at Gulfstream, another "logical single" as the analysts said in Venezuelan Hug going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf.  Sent off as the prohibitive 1/2 favorite he was far, FAR back through a dawdling pace and looked out of it as they turned for home.  But once in the clear he was running two strides to one on the leader and they hit the wire together - PHOTO FINISH (see top banner pic, photo on the left).  Again, I thought I'd won but it was way too close to have any confidence in.  The numbers came up and I had my fourth winner today.

Missed on three more before scoring in a maiden event at Santa Anita.  Brix had already been out nine times but this looked like the right spot with top rider Flavian Prat on board.  Much like Venezeulan Hug, she looked beaten at the top of the lane but was FLYING late and it was again, too close to call - PHOTO finish.  (See top banner, pic on the far right).  Got the head bob again.  Can't tell you the last time I had three photos go my way on the same day.

The last win of the day was one of the most authoritative.  Fearless had won his debut at Gulfstream for Todd Pletcher this winter - no surprise.  Came right back to win at a very generous 3/1 price on Holy Bull Day when I had him in an entry level allowance.  His next start was in the Grade 2 New Orleans Handicap and while he might not have won he was interfered with in the stretch leading to the DQ of another runner.  So when he came back last time out at Oaklawn in allowance company I thought he was the winner.  But he was so very far back that day that his late close was to little, too late.  Today at Churchill Downs if he was kept a little closer I thought he was clearly the best horse.  The crowd thought so also making him the even money favorite.  But again he lagged far back to the top of the lane.  But he came flying and blew by to win by daylight.

I was disappointed when my top choice in two Grade 3 events in the final two selections of the day both failed as the favorite.  But walked away with six more wins for the spring.

Sunday March 31
I thought to myself as the day began that either (a) the card was much like the rest of the GP cards this week, without many clear-cut winners or (b) the numbers should start to balance out for the week.  But that's not the way it played out.  In the opener I took a shot with a price play from the Saffie Joseph barn.  Ran really well at 6/1 but was only third.  Passed the next three (see the kind of card I'm talking about?).  The fifth was a turf sprint and my top choice was an also-eligible.  But despite a couple scratches he too scratched.  Went with my top in-the-field pick who was 2/1 but was completely outrun to finish 9th.  Wow.  Was 2/1 with a Chad Brown firster on the rail in a dirt MSW sprint.  Squeezed back to last at the break....sigh....and then in the 7th my pick, the co-2/1 favorite got a terrible ride.  In a short field was way back despite a slow pace, then in a small field the rider came up the inside, in obvious traffic from the backstretch on.  And surprise, surprise had no where to run.  When finally free she closed willingly but too late, second.  Is it another one of "those" days?  In the eighth it looked on paper very wide open.  But of the favorites I thought two of them were clear "play against" types.  Frosted Grace had been my BEST of the day last time and had just not run well until the final 16th when she blew by everyone but the winner, and he was WAY back of that one.  OK, maybe it was the off-going, but I didn't think so.  And First Deal had been white-hot last summer winning three straight including two stakes for trainer Jorge Navarro.  But since moved out of that one's barn he'd run two dull races.  By contrast Royal Squeeze was the class of the field, but as I scanned through the pp's I dismissed him at first because two back he raced at this level and was a well beaten third.  But after going all through the field I looked again.  That third - in only his 2nd non-stakes start in a year - had come behind two runners who both would be odds-on here.  Give him a pass and then toss in the 2nd best of 62 workers for this (ahhh, 62!) and he looks good to me now.  Tracked the leaders four wide and appeared to have little interest to the furlong pole but then he kicked into a whole other gear and was JUST up to win.

And at a generous 2/1 and change.  Suddenly I'm 1-for-4 and almost even on the day.  In the next, a five furlong turf race, trainer Louie Roussell III had already won once with one of his ship-ins from New Orleans and he's quickly appearing to have some quality runners.  If Overnight Success was ready to roll he would be easily best.  The only time he'd dropped into a level like this 3-lifetime event on his form was in an optional $20K event at Hawthorne and he won for fun.  He was confidently handled by Hall of Fame rider Edgar Prado while pressing the leader into the lane.  When asked to run under mild urging he was tons and I mean TONS the best.

Two in a row and now it was time for the BET of the Day.  Entry level allowance races are always difficult because they draw such an eclectic group of runners.  The "best" bet is typically a lightly raced runner who's faced winners only once or twice and has run as good or better vs. them as they did in their maiden win.  And so we come to Whiskey Sunrise.  In his 2yo debut he was a just-miss 2nd.  Off a year-long layoff he returned as a DOMINANT winner in a state-bred MSW.  In an entry level sprint like this he dueled and put away a highly regarded Todd Pletcher colt, only to be caught late, second but six clear of the rest of the field with a Beyer figure TEN points higher than his maiden win.  Any thing close to that and he's long gone.  Made him a prime time bet.  Chased a pricey front runner who ran way, way too fast while opening up six to the far turn.  Without being asked Whiskey Sunrise inhaled him and drew off as much MUCH the best.

Finished the day a nice three-for-seven and on a nice little roll.



And so as we closed out the spring season I went through and added up my numbers.  I was happy all things considered - playing every day at a "lower quality" Gulfstream meet - that they turned out like they did:  363 / 123 - 77-45 ..... that's a 34% win average and a 2-out-of-3 66.6% in the money number.  And two final notes from the week.  First, with the new Gulfstream schedule and with NYRA racing returning, hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney is leaving South Florida until this fall.  So after she announced that on Sunday I tweeted her out a message and minutes later got a response, that was cool.

And I just had to share this.  One of my buddies from Cypress Bay, assistant principal Jeff Nelson has a daughter that I've known since she came to Cypress Bay High as a freshman and we've been friends for years.  As she graduated from college and became a young adult we are now Facebook friends.  She's started a blog and she's shared many personal thoughts and I told her when she first announced she was doing this that I too blogged and not many people read it, but I promised I would read every entry.  And when she wrote about how she had low self-esteem we exchanged several messages where I assured her she was a very cute girl and any male would agree with that.  She's looked very good in many FB photos, but the one she posted this weekend was just too good not to post for me to look back on through the years.  Here's the very adorable Chloe Nelson...