Welcome Back To National Racing!
You can't find anyone more grateful than I to Gulfstream Park for keeping the racing alive during the pandemic, but you also won't find anyone more delighted to have racing on a national stage than me as I got to play race selections from all over the country this week. And it was an excellent week of results with my selections scoring at a near-40% clip. And I know you can make numbers say anything, but the facts are these.....take away the "off day" I had Friday (1-for-9) and the other three days saw my picks hit at a 44% clip. WHOOOO HOOOOO. Here's how the first week of summer played out for me.
Wednesday June 3
The new summer schedule has racing from Gulfstream on Wednesday, Friday-Sunday. And with the "big tracks" opening up the "big names" of the sport have largely moved out of town. So, I'll spend a lot less time playing the local races and a lot more traveling around the country, virtually. And today was opening day at Belmont Park. I enjoy playing the NYRA circuit and today was an excellent way to return to New York for thoroughbred handicapping selections. I was surprised when the first pick of the week, an off-the-turf selection from Gulfstream was a lame 7th at 5/2 odds. But in the second pick of the day I scored in a two-turn claiming event where War Giant was much the best. To be fair he was 3/5 in the program so it wasn't any great handicapping insights that brought him to the page, but he was plunging out of much better races so it was a bit of a "gamble" to play him. Because of that I had him listed as a double bet. But the pre-race analysis and the betting led me to up the investment to a triple level bet. Had to work late after running a very fast middle segment, but a daylight winner.
Got my first win at Belmont in their third which was a maiden special for two-year-olds. As soon as I saw the race conditions I considered just moving on, but then I saw the Wesley Ward runner and I knew that one would be vulnerable. And there was a Todd Pletcher 2yo with Irad Ortiz up and running in the colors of top NY owner and Pletcher client Michael Repole. The two dueled into the lane before Prisoner drew off leaving the odds-on Fauci (yes, just like the "guru" for the pandemic) languishing as a well-beaten second.
Missed with the 3/5 favorite in GP's 6th but came right back with a nice score in my second bet at Belmont. Business Cycle showed one of my favorite angles in claiming races, the "re-claim." Gary Gullo had claimed this guy in December and ran an improved figure in his first start, then scored in his next under jockey Manny Franco. But he was claimed away. Ran second for the new connections but Gullo took him right back and put Franco up. Four works since his last start. Raced mid-pack in seventh/eighth some eight off the lead then split horses on the turn, moved five wide into the lane and drew off. The $8.30 payoff led to a return of over $40 and I was clearly in the black for the day.
Again a loss at Gulfstream with a short-priced favorite (fifth and last at 3/2) but then nailed the front running winner in a six furlong turf sprint in New York. Strongerthanuknow streaked right to the front and never was challenged winning easily as I cashed for almost $30.
Finally missed a pick in NY at 9/5 when third and another at Gulfstream (4th at 9/5). Then in the eighth at Belmont we were going a mile on the turf in a second level allowance event. As I looked over the past performances I was struck with how contentious the field was and that you could go any one of several ways with some degree of confidence. For me I thought the potential ability of Chad Brown's Value Proposition out-weighed the form that was proven by the other contenders. He was lightly raced, ran in the powerful Klaravich Stable silks and had Irad Ortiz up. Sat mid-pack to the top of the stretch then mounted a strong rally. Collared the new leader at the sixteenth pole and edged clear in the final fifty yards. The best part......went off at 9/2 and paid $11.20 so I cashed for almost $60 to seal a winning day.
Next up was the Opening Day feature, the Grade 3 Beaugay going a mile on the turf. Chad Brown sent out multiple Grade 1 winning Rushing Fall in here and right away when I read that story online I knew she'd be the bet. But when I opened the program there was Got Stormy who had won the Gr 2 Barauch at Saratoga against the boys and was 2nd best in the Gr 1 BC Mile against the boys. She'd been hot and cold since then and the questions were.... (a) would her having raced recently give her an edge over the return-for-a-layoff Rushing Fall and (b) was Got Stormy a little dull today. The answers were no and yes. Rushing Fall hadn't seen Gr 3 company in a LONG time and had fired fresh every time. AND she looked like the lone speed if Javier Castellano got her away cleanly. And I'd seen Got Stormy in all three starts in 2020 and just didn't look the same. I did think that the connections must have had some confidence because she would have been odds-on in a $100K listed event at Gulfstream two weeks ago but she scratched to run here. They ran 1-2 to the top of the lane with Rushing Fall dictating terms in a good but not too fast pace. We'd see now as Tyler Gaffalione asked Got Stormy to accelerate. She moved within a half length but then Castellano let Rushing Fall go and she drew off very impressively as the BEST BET of the Day.
For the day I finished 6-for-11 and won nearly $100. It was a VERY good Wednesday.
Thursday / Friday June 4 - 5
I didn't like the looks of the Thur card at Belmont and was in a quandary, so I handicapped the Charles Town races for Thursday night. But once I was finished I didn't think I had any real advantage so I didn't play. Friday was a huge disappointment after the way Wednesday went. A lowly 1-for-9 with the winner being a 1/5 shot at Belmont. Moving on.
Saturday June 6
Now I should list today as "Santa Anita Derby Day," and I DID win three races there. But NONE of them were any of the multiple stakes events on the card. Still, for the day I won ten times and it was a very good day of racing. I missed at Woodbine - like playing there with their synthetic track but in the third at Gulfstream I liked the obvious odds-on favorite, Combination. He'd won five of his last six starts AND did it for four different trainers. Today he was first off the claim again today and I did think it was a valid point brought up by the on-air analysts as to how long he could keep good form while changing barns. But, I didn't think today would be the day he went south. Ranged up under a patented Paco ride, including the look back under the arm turning for home and jogged home as much, MUCH the best. I'd originally planned to play the minimum but upped it to a triple investment and collected nearly $25 on the first win of the day.
Not all that uncommon to up the bet but from minimum to triple investment is pretty rare. Nice to be right, obviously. After a miss at Belmont I had the first of three "big time" bets, this one at Churchill Downs in their third, a marathon turf event in a no conditions allowance race. Gentle Ruler looked REALLY hard to go past. She'd won five of her last seven, all at this eleven furlong trip or longer. And she posted Beyer figures of 92 in all of them - which would win here. And the last three came in stakes races, two of them graded. She had a recent race, unlike many of today's rivals when second behind loose on the lead Mean Mary in the Gr 3 Orchid. She was bottled up to the top of the stretch when finally getting into the clear. She was grinding away on the leaders, caught the front runner at the 16th pole but that one would not give in. A thrilling duel, PHOTO FINISH.
WIN! With the prime time play I got back almost $40, nice. Back-to-back-to-back 2nd place finishes with odds-on favorites before it was time for the first of the three stakes on the Gulfstream Park Card, the Soldier's Dancer. As I said to Kim later in the day, it's interesting to me that when I first started following thoroughbred racing seriously the majority of stakes were named after legendary stars of the sport. And while that's still true today, so many of them NOW carry the names of horses I have seen run. I'm NOT getting old :) This one is named after one of my favorite Calder Race Course turf stars. He won so many races for me, including a big graded event at Santa Anita that he made my "Wall of Fame" when I had more than twenty large framed photos on my "office" wall (photo at left). But back to today's race. It was a short field that seemed evenly matched. But I liked the chances of Muggsamatic who I'd had on Sunshine Millions Day. He was a good fit for this level of competition and he could stalk the pace without getting into trouble. The first sign of trouble came when the field was heading down the backstretch and I was in last (of five) behind very slow fractions and announcer Pete Aiello called out jockey Paco Lopez on another horse. Wait, what? Did I miss that? Apparently. As they turned for home Paco was challenging and I was spinning my wheels, buried inside and with no apparent interest in running. But at the furlong marker it was almost like 'Muggsy woke up and said, "Oh hey, we're racing?" because he switched into the clear and sprinted right past the entire field to win going away.
WHOOO HOOOO. And he paid a generous $7.40 allowing me to cash for nearly $40. About an hour until the next race where I was 2nd at Churchill and then it was time for the co-featured Ginger Brew Stakes at Gulfstream going the same mile and a sixteenth as the Soldier's Dancer had gone, also on the turf. While I was confident in Muggsamatic in the first turf feature, I was even more confident with Kelsey's Cross in this one for fillies & mares. In her last five straight races she'd faced graded stakes runners and today was in a restricted stakes for $100K. She had traffic trouble being caught between and behind runners to the far turn, but once she got clear she came flying down the center of the course and ran away as much, MUCH the best.
And like Muggsamatic, somehow she left the gate at better than 5/2 odds so I cashed for nearly $40 again. YOWZA. Four straight misses, including the "BEST" of the day in the featured Game Face at Gulfstream where Boerne didn't make the lead and finished second at even money. It's a humbling game that requires you to be even keeled through the highs and the lows....not only for a season, a month, or a week, but even more so during the course of a single day at the races. I was following the live racing via Xpressbet online but I was also watching the TVG broadcast. As I was awaiting the next race TVG analyst Christina Blacker - who's an excellent handicapper - said on air that in the second race at Santa Anita she'd be shocked if Herd Immunity wasn't the winner at a short price. My ears perked up and I started paying attention. She said, "....and here's why...." On Friday a first time starting 2yo named Bolden had absolutely galloped as tons the best in a maiden special race. Herd Immunity had worked with that one for the same trainer and they worked in tandem with identical work times. "No one in this field has that kind of talent displayed by Bolden" she commented. In all the years I've followed TVG I don't ever remember hearing Blacker being so definitive. Good enough for me. I put a double investment on the colt. He didn't break cleanly and the idea that he'd wire the field in hand as his stablemate had done Friday was out the window. But he raced professionally between horses, surged to the front. Was challenged from the outside, but put that one away and opened up to win going away. Collected over $15 on the "freebie" selection - THANKS Christina! As I told Kim when telling her the story on this winner, you have to be willing to use any resource at your disposal when trying to pick winners in this game. And that includes when someone "knows" something and shares it with you, even on national television :)
This kicked off a string of winners for me. In the next race at Santa Anita Kneedeepinsnow was pointed out by DRF analyst Brad Free. 'Snow had come back off a five month layoff, moving synthetic to real dirt and dueled gate to wire through sizzling fractions only to lose by a head. He was the LONE front runner in the field and looked to get loose on the easiest of leads. Right to the front and LONG GONE. Another near-$25 to the winnings. Just as Kneedeepinsnow was crossing the line they were in the gate at Belmont for the Grade 3 Westchester. Last summer's Travers winner Code of Honor was making his 4yo debut today and he was clearly the class of the field. While I'd say "you have a point" if you went against on the basis that today's the day to beat him as he goes off the shelf with obviously bigger fish to fry down the road. But I'd counter with the fact that Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey doesn't run his horses to "get one in them;" - if they're running, they are trying. Was a bit concerned as a big rain storm hit New York and it was so hard that seeing the distant gate for this one-turn mile and a sixteenth test was a challenge. One of the other favorites slipped up the rail to the front turning for home as Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez got Code of Honor underway three wide into the lane. He swooped up with all the momentum, caught the leader and they dueled for a sixteenth of a mile before he edged clear late.
My seventh win of the day and third in a row. The next race on the sheet was the Grade 3 Aristides at Churchill Downs, a six furlong sprint. When I analyzed the race I put Honor Mischief on top who could take advantage of the speed to run late. But as I watched the pre-race analysis prior to the start of the racing program both analysts talked about how "obvious" Volatile was in this spot. I looked back at what I'd written and I'd made him third choice. He was an improving type and had run huge last time out. My initial thought was he might bounce today. But they were so convinced in their opinion - and part of my thinking was that NEITHER of these two guys like to go with the favorite - that I reconsidered and changed the pick and upped the bet. Volatile pressed a sharp pace while three wide. As they turned for home Honor Mischief slipped through on the rail and I briefly thought, "uh oh," but then Violence opened up and widened to more than half a dozen clear by the furlong pole. He was geared down through the final sixteenth and that's important because the teletimer flashed 1:07.5 just two clicks off the track record. WOW. Trainer Steve Asmussen and jockey Ricardo Santana had teamed up to win the Breeders' Cup Sprint last fall and this may be their champion this year. THAT was impressive.
In the next race on the sheet I openly wrote in my analysis and told Kim as the horses walked to the gate that I more HOPED that this horse would win than I thought she would. At the 2018 Breeders' Cup held at Churchill Downs, on "Future Stars Friday" the most sensational, eye-catching and "WOW" moment of the day, arguably one of the top two for the weekend, came when the 2yo filly Newspaperofrecord romped in the Grade 1 Juvenile Filly Turf.
But when she ran last year as a 3yo she went winless. She ran credibly in her first two - a poorly judged ride I thought in the first start, and in the second just didn't have enough to hold on. Her third start was dismal and she went to the bench. So today I was hopeful she'd return to form for trainer Chad Brown. I couldn't imagine that he'd bring back such a talent in this Grade 3, seven furlong turf event, the Intercontinental Stakes, if he didn't believe she was "back." So I was hoping for a big effort that would lead everyone to say, "she's back!" She has such speed and I wondered about the softness in the turf after the big rain storm, but I also remembered that on Breeders' Cup Friday it had been gloomy, overcast and there'd been rain. The latch sprung and Newspaperofrecord went right to the front. She went fast through the opening half mile and as she led them into the stretch I had the thought, "...the 'old Newspaper of record would spurt away / the 3yo version would give it up...." and I held my breath. Jockey Irad Ortiz gave her the "GO" sign and she kicked into another gear and ran away. YES!
Again, like earlier.....the highs and lows. Four straight big wins, including the "emotional" score in with the filly. Now came not one, not two, but three straight second place finishes. I got another win at Santa Anita to snap the streak when I had my third and final BIG BET. Most uncharacteristic, but I was willing to go "all in" on a first time starter. WHAT??? Bob Baffert trained $3.65 million sales grad Cezanne and his works were sensational. He was so heralded that they were saying on the TVG broadcast that in the Kentucky Derby Future Wagers he was 16/1 - and he'd never even run a race yet (note the favorite at this early juncture is just 6/1). I will say it was a jaw-dropping, "WOW" performance, but he raced professionally inside, was taken back off the pace, then was between runners. And when asked to kick on he did and opened up willingly. All of those things are NOT typical of first time starters, so I'll be most anxious to see his next start.
Ended the day with three losses, including in the featured Santa Anita Derby where I "knew" that the second choice would probably beat me, but I couldn't go against Authentic, who I still think is the better horse. Finished with ten wins - nice - and had a good day.
Sunday June 7
I considered not playing today. But when I went to see the free Churchill Downs past performances it was BOTH Churchill and Belmont so I decided to look at both. I spent a LOT longer handicapping for today than I typically would a Sunday, but in the end I had a dozen selections. I was watching the races on Fox Sports, "America's Day At The Races" with Gulfstream hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney in her new digs because the telecast carried both these tracks. In waiting for the races I listened to the Churchill pre-race day analysis and both guys remarked about the "key scratch" in the opener - MY HORSE! And they both agreed (and neither like to play favorites) that Have No Fear would be odds on and would win for fun as the lone speed. Right to the front and never in danger.
In the second pick of the day, the second at Belmont we were on the turf for an entry level allowance. And here's a great example of how great thoroughbred racing is! It's the second race on a Sunday and I've just got a minimum bet but it was one of THE most "WOW" races I've seen and maybe will lead to some big stakes wins down the line. You have to watch the replay video for the week to truly appreciate what Domestic Spending did. This was a last out Tampa maiden winner for Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz running in the Klaravich colors. It was the "Tampa thing" coupled with being a last out maiden that made me hesitate on betting more. But the field looked evenly matched and the connections were good so I was on board. Left the gate as no secret being the 3/2 favorite but trailed turning for home. Then Domestic Spending began to accelerate noticeably picking off runners. But in mid-stretch he ducked in sharply which cost him multiple lengths. Too late to get to the emerging leader, but in the final two hundred yards he truly kicked in the afterburners and just blew by. Visually a WOW race.
When Acacia and her NY partner came back on the air her first words were, "Pardon us for a moment as Andy and I pick our jaws off the ground after that performance." Just really something. And I completed a perfect 3-for-3 start to the day with one of the two "best" bets of the day. Right after the win I told Kim the story of this race because while I enjoy EVERY win, some have better stories than others, and this one had a good story. Quiet Company was the favorite in a Churchill Downs maiden event going a mile on the turf. The problem was she was already an eight-time maiden. Over my "limit" for maidens normally, but "there are no rules in handicapping!" Looking more closely you discovered that five of the eight were on the main track, toss. And the three turf races netted a 2nd and a 3rd place finish. So now the 3/0-1-1 resume is a lot more appealing. Now look more carefully at the turf races.....the first two were in sprints and ONLY the last one was going two turns - at this one mile distance and she was a just-miss second.
She tracked the 12/1 front runner from third into the stretch, accelerated to the front and drew clear late at a generous (I thought all things considered) 7/5 allowing me to cash for nearly $40. I'm having a very good day.
Missed on three in a row, ironically all third place finishes at short prices before I had another "great story" winner. The seventh at Churchill was an entry level turf sprint and to me that was a mixed bag of runners. But by the numbers only five Beyers from the combined 42 career starts of the rivals facing Lead Guitar, my pick (and the post time favorite) could match ALL FOUR BEYERS she'd run. And three of those competitive figures had been earned on the main track. I don't often use the Brisnet past performances, but when I do one stat that points out a lot of winners is when their "Prime Power" number is significantly better than the rest of the field. In this case Lead Guitar had a 141.7 and the next highest was 126.2....normally there MIGHT be a three point spread with a decisive favorite - oh. But when the gates opened she was left standing there spotting the field at least five lengths if not more. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione was smart and didn't try to rush her. Let her get into stride and as they hit the far turn he was within shouting range and moving. Turning for home she was among runners and had work to do when he got her clear on the outside. Then in much the same fashion as Domestic Spending, but trust me not the same "oh my" burst of speed, but still an amazing kick she inhaled the field and won going away.
WHOOO HOOO - cashed for nearly $20. Fifteen minutes later I was heading to the winner's circle with another impressive winner. The seventh at Belmont was another entry level allowance on the turf. The first clue in a very evenly matched field was the connections - Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz, Klaravich Stables. Secondly, in five of her six races she'd been on the board and the only "off the board" finish came when fifth beaten 2 1/2 lengths with the trouble comment, "....stymied in the stretched, steadied repeatedly...." - I think we can forgive that one. With a legitimate pace and clean trip I thought she looked much better than her form might indicate. She was a tepid 9/5 favorite as they headed down the backstretch and as I watched I was curious why Ortiz didn't seem to be asking anything at all of her as she sat in the back half of the field. Then on the turn he flicked his wrists and she moved freely, picking off horses one by one. Swept up five wide into the lane, got to the front and before you could say "Aunt Jemimah's Pancakes" she was six in front and long gone. YOWZA.
Cashed for nearly $30. STILL having a very nice day. Missed in the last three picks of the afternoon and was left with one late race. I went back and forth about betting the national feature race, the Grade 1 Malibu at seven furlongs at Santa Anita. Without even looking at the past performances, CLEARLY Bob Baffert's McKenzie was the most talented in the field as a multiple Grade 1 winner. But he is typically a two-turn horse. Today was his "let's get started" race. And watching the TVG pre-race analysis they talked about how the immediate target was the Grade 1 Met Mile at Belmont where he'd been a troubled 2nd last year. The analysts debated was this a prep or a "for real" run. And the consensus, especially from Christina Blacker (see above for Saturday's helpful tip) was that Baffert would want him to run well and win as a confidence booster and a stepping stone to the Met Mile, not "just get a race in him." The crowd pounded him at 1/5 early but as post time approached he floated up to a more than generous 1/2 price. Sat confidently on the outside under Mike Smith - who'd been removed from McKenzie after the Met Mile debacle last year but earned the mount back today. Glided up into the lane and when asked, kicked away with authority under a hand ride.
Finished the day 6-for-12 and I was very, VERY delighted I'd played today :)
Got my first win at Belmont in their third which was a maiden special for two-year-olds. As soon as I saw the race conditions I considered just moving on, but then I saw the Wesley Ward runner and I knew that one would be vulnerable. And there was a Todd Pletcher 2yo with Irad Ortiz up and running in the colors of top NY owner and Pletcher client Michael Repole. The two dueled into the lane before Prisoner drew off leaving the odds-on Fauci (yes, just like the "guru" for the pandemic) languishing as a well-beaten second.
Missed with the 3/5 favorite in GP's 6th but came right back with a nice score in my second bet at Belmont. Business Cycle showed one of my favorite angles in claiming races, the "re-claim." Gary Gullo had claimed this guy in December and ran an improved figure in his first start, then scored in his next under jockey Manny Franco. But he was claimed away. Ran second for the new connections but Gullo took him right back and put Franco up. Four works since his last start. Raced mid-pack in seventh/eighth some eight off the lead then split horses on the turn, moved five wide into the lane and drew off. The $8.30 payoff led to a return of over $40 and I was clearly in the black for the day.
Again a loss at Gulfstream with a short-priced favorite (fifth and last at 3/2) but then nailed the front running winner in a six furlong turf sprint in New York. Strongerthanuknow streaked right to the front and never was challenged winning easily as I cashed for almost $30.
Finally missed a pick in NY at 9/5 when third and another at Gulfstream (4th at 9/5). Then in the eighth at Belmont we were going a mile on the turf in a second level allowance event. As I looked over the past performances I was struck with how contentious the field was and that you could go any one of several ways with some degree of confidence. For me I thought the potential ability of Chad Brown's Value Proposition out-weighed the form that was proven by the other contenders. He was lightly raced, ran in the powerful Klaravich Stable silks and had Irad Ortiz up. Sat mid-pack to the top of the stretch then mounted a strong rally. Collared the new leader at the sixteenth pole and edged clear in the final fifty yards. The best part......went off at 9/2 and paid $11.20 so I cashed for almost $60 to seal a winning day.
Next up was the Opening Day feature, the Grade 3 Beaugay going a mile on the turf. Chad Brown sent out multiple Grade 1 winning Rushing Fall in here and right away when I read that story online I knew she'd be the bet. But when I opened the program there was Got Stormy who had won the Gr 2 Barauch at Saratoga against the boys and was 2nd best in the Gr 1 BC Mile against the boys. She'd been hot and cold since then and the questions were.... (a) would her having raced recently give her an edge over the return-for-a-layoff Rushing Fall and (b) was Got Stormy a little dull today. The answers were no and yes. Rushing Fall hadn't seen Gr 3 company in a LONG time and had fired fresh every time. AND she looked like the lone speed if Javier Castellano got her away cleanly. And I'd seen Got Stormy in all three starts in 2020 and just didn't look the same. I did think that the connections must have had some confidence because she would have been odds-on in a $100K listed event at Gulfstream two weeks ago but she scratched to run here. They ran 1-2 to the top of the lane with Rushing Fall dictating terms in a good but not too fast pace. We'd see now as Tyler Gaffalione asked Got Stormy to accelerate. She moved within a half length but then Castellano let Rushing Fall go and she drew off very impressively as the BEST BET of the Day.
For the day I finished 6-for-11 and won nearly $100. It was a VERY good Wednesday.
Thursday / Friday June 4 - 5
I didn't like the looks of the Thur card at Belmont and was in a quandary, so I handicapped the Charles Town races for Thursday night. But once I was finished I didn't think I had any real advantage so I didn't play. Friday was a huge disappointment after the way Wednesday went. A lowly 1-for-9 with the winner being a 1/5 shot at Belmont. Moving on.
Saturday June 6
Now I should list today as "Santa Anita Derby Day," and I DID win three races there. But NONE of them were any of the multiple stakes events on the card. Still, for the day I won ten times and it was a very good day of racing. I missed at Woodbine - like playing there with their synthetic track but in the third at Gulfstream I liked the obvious odds-on favorite, Combination. He'd won five of his last six starts AND did it for four different trainers. Today he was first off the claim again today and I did think it was a valid point brought up by the on-air analysts as to how long he could keep good form while changing barns. But, I didn't think today would be the day he went south. Ranged up under a patented Paco ride, including the look back under the arm turning for home and jogged home as much, MUCH the best. I'd originally planned to play the minimum but upped it to a triple investment and collected nearly $25 on the first win of the day.
Not all that uncommon to up the bet but from minimum to triple investment is pretty rare. Nice to be right, obviously. After a miss at Belmont I had the first of three "big time" bets, this one at Churchill Downs in their third, a marathon turf event in a no conditions allowance race. Gentle Ruler looked REALLY hard to go past. She'd won five of her last seven, all at this eleven furlong trip or longer. And she posted Beyer figures of 92 in all of them - which would win here. And the last three came in stakes races, two of them graded. She had a recent race, unlike many of today's rivals when second behind loose on the lead Mean Mary in the Gr 3 Orchid. She was bottled up to the top of the stretch when finally getting into the clear. She was grinding away on the leaders, caught the front runner at the 16th pole but that one would not give in. A thrilling duel, PHOTO FINISH.
PHOTO FINISH - Gentle Rule (#4) Outside
WHOOO HOOOO. And he paid a generous $7.40 allowing me to cash for nearly $40. About an hour until the next race where I was 2nd at Churchill and then it was time for the co-featured Ginger Brew Stakes at Gulfstream going the same mile and a sixteenth as the Soldier's Dancer had gone, also on the turf. While I was confident in Muggsamatic in the first turf feature, I was even more confident with Kelsey's Cross in this one for fillies & mares. In her last five straight races she'd faced graded stakes runners and today was in a restricted stakes for $100K. She had traffic trouble being caught between and behind runners to the far turn, but once she got clear she came flying down the center of the course and ran away as much, MUCH the best.
This kicked off a string of winners for me. In the next race at Santa Anita Kneedeepinsnow was pointed out by DRF analyst Brad Free. 'Snow had come back off a five month layoff, moving synthetic to real dirt and dueled gate to wire through sizzling fractions only to lose by a head. He was the LONE front runner in the field and looked to get loose on the easiest of leads. Right to the front and LONG GONE. Another near-$25 to the winnings. Just as Kneedeepinsnow was crossing the line they were in the gate at Belmont for the Grade 3 Westchester. Last summer's Travers winner Code of Honor was making his 4yo debut today and he was clearly the class of the field. While I'd say "you have a point" if you went against on the basis that today's the day to beat him as he goes off the shelf with obviously bigger fish to fry down the road. But I'd counter with the fact that Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey doesn't run his horses to "get one in them;" - if they're running, they are trying. Was a bit concerned as a big rain storm hit New York and it was so hard that seeing the distant gate for this one-turn mile and a sixteenth test was a challenge. One of the other favorites slipped up the rail to the front turning for home as Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez got Code of Honor underway three wide into the lane. He swooped up with all the momentum, caught the leader and they dueled for a sixteenth of a mile before he edged clear late.
My seventh win of the day and third in a row. The next race on the sheet was the Grade 3 Aristides at Churchill Downs, a six furlong sprint. When I analyzed the race I put Honor Mischief on top who could take advantage of the speed to run late. But as I watched the pre-race analysis prior to the start of the racing program both analysts talked about how "obvious" Volatile was in this spot. I looked back at what I'd written and I'd made him third choice. He was an improving type and had run huge last time out. My initial thought was he might bounce today. But they were so convinced in their opinion - and part of my thinking was that NEITHER of these two guys like to go with the favorite - that I reconsidered and changed the pick and upped the bet. Volatile pressed a sharp pace while three wide. As they turned for home Honor Mischief slipped through on the rail and I briefly thought, "uh oh," but then Violence opened up and widened to more than half a dozen clear by the furlong pole. He was geared down through the final sixteenth and that's important because the teletimer flashed 1:07.5 just two clicks off the track record. WOW. Trainer Steve Asmussen and jockey Ricardo Santana had teamed up to win the Breeders' Cup Sprint last fall and this may be their champion this year. THAT was impressive.
In the next race on the sheet I openly wrote in my analysis and told Kim as the horses walked to the gate that I more HOPED that this horse would win than I thought she would. At the 2018 Breeders' Cup held at Churchill Downs, on "Future Stars Friday" the most sensational, eye-catching and "WOW" moment of the day, arguably one of the top two for the weekend, came when the 2yo filly Newspaperofrecord romped in the Grade 1 Juvenile Filly Turf.
Again, like earlier.....the highs and lows. Four straight big wins, including the "emotional" score in with the filly. Now came not one, not two, but three straight second place finishes. I got another win at Santa Anita to snap the streak when I had my third and final BIG BET. Most uncharacteristic, but I was willing to go "all in" on a first time starter. WHAT??? Bob Baffert trained $3.65 million sales grad Cezanne and his works were sensational. He was so heralded that they were saying on the TVG broadcast that in the Kentucky Derby Future Wagers he was 16/1 - and he'd never even run a race yet (note the favorite at this early juncture is just 6/1). I will say it was a jaw-dropping, "WOW" performance, but he raced professionally inside, was taken back off the pace, then was between runners. And when asked to kick on he did and opened up willingly. All of those things are NOT typical of first time starters, so I'll be most anxious to see his next start.
Ended the day with three losses, including in the featured Santa Anita Derby where I "knew" that the second choice would probably beat me, but I couldn't go against Authentic, who I still think is the better horse. Finished with ten wins - nice - and had a good day.
Sunday June 7
I considered not playing today. But when I went to see the free Churchill Downs past performances it was BOTH Churchill and Belmont so I decided to look at both. I spent a LOT longer handicapping for today than I typically would a Sunday, but in the end I had a dozen selections. I was watching the races on Fox Sports, "America's Day At The Races" with Gulfstream hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney in her new digs because the telecast carried both these tracks. In waiting for the races I listened to the Churchill pre-race day analysis and both guys remarked about the "key scratch" in the opener - MY HORSE! And they both agreed (and neither like to play favorites) that Have No Fear would be odds on and would win for fun as the lone speed. Right to the front and never in danger.
In the second pick of the day, the second at Belmont we were on the turf for an entry level allowance. And here's a great example of how great thoroughbred racing is! It's the second race on a Sunday and I've just got a minimum bet but it was one of THE most "WOW" races I've seen and maybe will lead to some big stakes wins down the line. You have to watch the replay video for the week to truly appreciate what Domestic Spending did. This was a last out Tampa maiden winner for Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz running in the Klaravich colors. It was the "Tampa thing" coupled with being a last out maiden that made me hesitate on betting more. But the field looked evenly matched and the connections were good so I was on board. Left the gate as no secret being the 3/2 favorite but trailed turning for home. Then Domestic Spending began to accelerate noticeably picking off runners. But in mid-stretch he ducked in sharply which cost him multiple lengths. Too late to get to the emerging leader, but in the final two hundred yards he truly kicked in the afterburners and just blew by. Visually a WOW race.
When Acacia and her NY partner came back on the air her first words were, "Pardon us for a moment as Andy and I pick our jaws off the ground after that performance." Just really something. And I completed a perfect 3-for-3 start to the day with one of the two "best" bets of the day. Right after the win I told Kim the story of this race because while I enjoy EVERY win, some have better stories than others, and this one had a good story. Quiet Company was the favorite in a Churchill Downs maiden event going a mile on the turf. The problem was she was already an eight-time maiden. Over my "limit" for maidens normally, but "there are no rules in handicapping!" Looking more closely you discovered that five of the eight were on the main track, toss. And the three turf races netted a 2nd and a 3rd place finish. So now the 3/0-1-1 resume is a lot more appealing. Now look more carefully at the turf races.....the first two were in sprints and ONLY the last one was going two turns - at this one mile distance and she was a just-miss second.
She tracked the 12/1 front runner from third into the stretch, accelerated to the front and drew clear late at a generous (I thought all things considered) 7/5 allowing me to cash for nearly $40. I'm having a very good day.
Missed on three in a row, ironically all third place finishes at short prices before I had another "great story" winner. The seventh at Churchill was an entry level turf sprint and to me that was a mixed bag of runners. But by the numbers only five Beyers from the combined 42 career starts of the rivals facing Lead Guitar, my pick (and the post time favorite) could match ALL FOUR BEYERS she'd run. And three of those competitive figures had been earned on the main track. I don't often use the Brisnet past performances, but when I do one stat that points out a lot of winners is when their "Prime Power" number is significantly better than the rest of the field. In this case Lead Guitar had a 141.7 and the next highest was 126.2....normally there MIGHT be a three point spread with a decisive favorite - oh. But when the gates opened she was left standing there spotting the field at least five lengths if not more. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione was smart and didn't try to rush her. Let her get into stride and as they hit the far turn he was within shouting range and moving. Turning for home she was among runners and had work to do when he got her clear on the outside. Then in much the same fashion as Domestic Spending, but trust me not the same "oh my" burst of speed, but still an amazing kick she inhaled the field and won going away.
WHOOO HOOO - cashed for nearly $20. Fifteen minutes later I was heading to the winner's circle with another impressive winner. The seventh at Belmont was another entry level allowance on the turf. The first clue in a very evenly matched field was the connections - Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz, Klaravich Stables. Secondly, in five of her six races she'd been on the board and the only "off the board" finish came when fifth beaten 2 1/2 lengths with the trouble comment, "....stymied in the stretched, steadied repeatedly...." - I think we can forgive that one. With a legitimate pace and clean trip I thought she looked much better than her form might indicate. She was a tepid 9/5 favorite as they headed down the backstretch and as I watched I was curious why Ortiz didn't seem to be asking anything at all of her as she sat in the back half of the field. Then on the turn he flicked his wrists and she moved freely, picking off horses one by one. Swept up five wide into the lane, got to the front and before you could say "Aunt Jemimah's Pancakes" she was six in front and long gone. YOWZA.
Cashed for nearly $30. STILL having a very nice day. Missed in the last three picks of the afternoon and was left with one late race. I went back and forth about betting the national feature race, the Grade 1 Malibu at seven furlongs at Santa Anita. Without even looking at the past performances, CLEARLY Bob Baffert's McKenzie was the most talented in the field as a multiple Grade 1 winner. But he is typically a two-turn horse. Today was his "let's get started" race. And watching the TVG pre-race analysis they talked about how the immediate target was the Grade 1 Met Mile at Belmont where he'd been a troubled 2nd last year. The analysts debated was this a prep or a "for real" run. And the consensus, especially from Christina Blacker (see above for Saturday's helpful tip) was that Baffert would want him to run well and win as a confidence booster and a stepping stone to the Met Mile, not "just get a race in him." The crowd pounded him at 1/5 early but as post time approached he floated up to a more than generous 1/2 price. Sat confidently on the outside under Mike Smith - who'd been removed from McKenzie after the Met Mile debacle last year but earned the mount back today. Glided up into the lane and when asked, kicked away with authority under a hand ride.
Finished the day 6-for-12 and I was very, VERY delighted I'd played today :)
Summer Racing: Week One Highlights
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