Slow Week / Photo Finish Saturday
With the turn of the page to June we move into Summer Racing Season and I'm so thankful that in the past couple of weeks we've seen the racing community grow as Santa Anita, Laurel and Churchill Downs all opened. Keeneland announced a special, stakes-filled five-day meet in mid-July. Belmont opens this coming week and next Saturday is Santa Anita Derby Day. And the best news of all..... every Friday I listen to the Defoe show on the radio and they typically broadcast from the breezeway at Gulfstream as he's a "degenerate gambler" as he refers to himself....loves the ponies. Well, obviously he's been unable to be on site and has been broadcasting from home. But this Friday he announced next Friday he will be at Gulfstream Park and that plans are in the works, maybe even for THIS WEEK to have fans back at Gulfstream Park! Oh how cool would that be! Here's how the slow week played out.
Thursday - Friday
Well, honestly there isn't much to discuss about these two days. And I should have known better with my selections/bets. As I handicapped the Thursday card I had two thoughts. One, I really didn't think we'd be on the turf which often makes the race a completely new dynamic of runners and two, by and large the card "felt" like a typical Gulfstream spring/summer card where there is really very little to hang your hat on. I've found during the Championship Season I'll have six to ten bets a day on a Gulfstream card and the rest of the year two or three tops. Well, both of my assumptions proved to be true. Off the turf so my first bet wasn't until Race 4 (6th at 3/1). And late in the day two odds-on, "everybody knows they'll win" picks did not win. Genghis was 2/5 and finished second after a horrific trip from start to finish in the 7th and in the 9th and finale (which was odd in and of itself that there were only nine races today) Shez Stuck Up, a MTO who laid over the field was wide throughout and no match for the inside front-running second choice - 2nd at 4/5 odds. And so we went to Friday's card still looking for the first win of the week. On Friday the first and third were off the turf and I had a pick in both. But after listening to the analysis and looking at the board for the opener I decided to forego the bet. Good thing....the horse I put on top ran fifth while my second choice scored. In the 2nd I was the 7/5 favorite in a 2yo maiden event....took the lead, but ran greenly and got collared late, second. In the third, off the turf led to MTO Combination who looked MUCH the best on paper. And despite being wide from his post from the start, through the turn, and into the lane he galloped out under mild urging as TONS the best to give me my first winner of the week.
In the 4th I was wide throughout and 7th at 3/1 on the grass. Led into the lane in a 5f turf sprint in the 7th at 7/2 but weakened to be third after going :21.1 for the opening quarter. I had what I thought was the inside speed in another turf sprint in the ninth but was out-quicked to the front and then was steadied on the turn. Sixth at 2/1. And in the finale I was the 6/5 favorite, "everyone's single" and was way, WAY too far back in a one-turn mile. Rallied for a non-threatening second place finish.
Saturday May 30th
My plan was to play Gulfstream, Santa Anita and Churchill Downs. But on Thursday it was announced that Laurel was opening and so I decided to play there. And then when I got the free Brisnet pp's for Churchill they came with the pp's for Tampa so I played there as well. Should have stuck with my original plan because I even said to Kim, today was "just a day" where it would be hard to find horses at any venue who had a true advantage. Sure I could find bets, but not like I normally would find on a Saturday. In the opener at Laurel where all day, every horse was coming off of extended layoffs, I ran 12th at 3/1 after stumbling to my nose out of the gate to lose all chance. Ran third as the 3/2 favorite in the opener at Churchill. At Tampa I was concerned when I'm A G Six was taken to the back in a six horse field going a mile-40, but top rider Antonio Gallardo (who was a 42% winner for this barn) handled him confidently and he blew by late to score.
I went against the favorite in Gulfstream's third, even though he was my first inclination to make my win bet on. Took Nothins Free as the "loose on the lead" type. Right call as he led into the lane and opened up going a one-turn mile. But the :45 half was too quick and he was reeled in late, finishing third. The "highlight" of the Saturday card came in the third at Churchill Downs. It was a maiden special going nine furlongs on the turf. I liked Elle M'a Souri who'd already gone down to defeat in six starts with three very close seconds and a third. Either she just didn't have the will to win or had been really unlucky. I thought the distance would help and I also believed she'd run well despite excuses. Today was the day (or it would be time to give up on her). As the field spun out of the far turn into the long Churchill stretch she found herself daylight behind the second choice in the betting with work to do. But she accelerated and was gaining ground with every stride. The two fillies hit the wire together (see the photo at the top of the page, the middle photo). I thought but was not sure that she'd won. The numbers came up and it was the #4, I'm a winner! Went off at a generous - I thought - 9/5 and with my triple investment yielded a return of over $40. With two wins from my first five picks I thought I was about to have a big day. Not so fast Webby.
Ran 4th at Tampa at 3/5 and third at 8/5 at Laurel before we came to the fourth at Gulfstream. I thought there two very legitimate and evenly matched runners in this MSW turf event going a mile. To me what separated Ocean Air from North Broadway was that jockey Irad Ortiz who often rides the best Chad Brown runners, had opted for Ocean Air over the Brown filly, North Broadway. But for what ever reason, that one scratched. So I re-read my analysis and looked at the pp's and thought, well, without the "other" top choice, North Broadway is the play. Got a great ride and proved much, MUCH too good for this field to win as the 3/2 favorite.
By now it's about 2:30 in the afternoon and I've only had eight picks, but won with three of them so I'm STILL thinking I'm going to have a really good day. Little did I know that I would only get to the winner's circle three more times over the next four hours of racing. Over the next eight races and hour and a half on the clock I had eight selections and finished second four times and third four times. And at odds from 6/1 to 2/5. My trip comments: "way too far back; led, caught; wide throughout; five wide in a five horse field; late bid; 3-to-5 wide into stretch; bid,, flat; edged to the front, caught on the wire." Frustrating to say the least. This brought me to the eighth at Gulfstream, another "logical single" as the analysts said in Venezuelan Hug going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. Sent off as the prohibitive 1/2 favorite he was far, FAR back through a dawdling pace and looked out of it as they turned for home. But once in the clear he was running two strides to one on the leader and they hit the wire together - PHOTO FINISH (see top banner pic, photo on the left). Again, I thought I'd won but it was way too close to have any confidence in. The numbers came up and I had my fourth winner today.
Missed on three more before scoring in a maiden event at Santa Anita. Brix had already been out nine times but this looked like the right spot with top rider Flavian Prat on board. Much like Venezeulan Hug, she looked beaten at the top of the lane but was FLYING late and it was again, too close to call - PHOTO finish. (See top banner, pic on the far right). Got the head bob again. Can't tell you the last time I had three photos go my way on the same day.
The last win of the day was one of the most authoritative. Fearless had won his debut at Gulfstream for Todd Pletcher this winter - no surprise. Came right back to win at a very generous 3/1 price on Holy Bull Day when I had him in an entry level allowance. His next start was in the Grade 2 New Orleans Handicap and while he might not have won he was interfered with in the stretch leading to the DQ of another runner. So when he came back last time out at Oaklawn in allowance company I thought he was the winner. But he was so very far back that day that his late close was to little, too late. Today at Churchill Downs if he was kept a little closer I thought he was clearly the best horse. The crowd thought so also making him the even money favorite. But again he lagged far back to the top of the lane. But he came flying and blew by to win by daylight.
I was disappointed when my top choice in two Grade 3 events in the final two selections of the day both failed as the favorite. But walked away with six more wins for the spring.
Sunday March 31
I thought to myself as the day began that either (a) the card was much like the rest of the GP cards this week, without many clear-cut winners or (b) the numbers should start to balance out for the week. But that's not the way it played out. In the opener I took a shot with a price play from the Saffie Joseph barn. Ran really well at 6/1 but was only third. Passed the next three (see the kind of card I'm talking about?). The fifth was a turf sprint and my top choice was an also-eligible. But despite a couple scratches he too scratched. Went with my top in-the-field pick who was 2/1 but was completely outrun to finish 9th. Wow. Was 2/1 with a Chad Brown firster on the rail in a dirt MSW sprint. Squeezed back to last at the break....sigh....and then in the 7th my pick, the co-2/1 favorite got a terrible ride. In a short field was way back despite a slow pace, then in a small field the rider came up the inside, in obvious traffic from the backstretch on. And surprise, surprise had no where to run. When finally free she closed willingly but too late, second. Is it another one of "those" days? In the eighth it looked on paper very wide open. But of the favorites I thought two of them were clear "play against" types. Frosted Grace had been my BEST of the day last time and had just not run well until the final 16th when she blew by everyone but the winner, and he was WAY back of that one. OK, maybe it was the off-going, but I didn't think so. And First Deal had been white-hot last summer winning three straight including two stakes for trainer Jorge Navarro. But since moved out of that one's barn he'd run two dull races. By contrast Royal Squeeze was the class of the field, but as I scanned through the pp's I dismissed him at first because two back he raced at this level and was a well beaten third. But after going all through the field I looked again. That third - in only his 2nd non-stakes start in a year - had come behind two runners who both would be odds-on here. Give him a pass and then toss in the 2nd best of 62 workers for this (ahhh, 62!) and he looks good to me now. Tracked the leaders four wide and appeared to have little interest to the furlong pole but then he kicked into a whole other gear and was JUST up to win.
And at a generous 2/1 and change. Suddenly I'm 1-for-4 and almost even on the day. In the next, a five furlong turf race, trainer Louie Roussell III had already won once with one of his ship-ins from New Orleans and he's quickly appearing to have some quality runners. If Overnight Success was ready to roll he would be easily best. The only time he'd dropped into a level like this 3-lifetime event on his form was in an optional $20K event at Hawthorne and he won for fun. He was confidently handled by Hall of Fame rider Edgar Prado while pressing the leader into the lane. When asked to run under mild urging he was tons and I mean TONS the best.
Two in a row and now it was time for the BET of the Day. Entry level allowance races are always difficult because they draw such an eclectic group of runners. The "best" bet is typically a lightly raced runner who's faced winners only once or twice and has run as good or better vs. them as they did in their maiden win. And so we come to Whiskey Sunrise. In his 2yo debut he was a just-miss 2nd. Off a year-long layoff he returned as a DOMINANT winner in a state-bred MSW. In an entry level sprint like this he dueled and put away a highly regarded Todd Pletcher colt, only to be caught late, second but six clear of the rest of the field with a Beyer figure TEN points higher than his maiden win. Any thing close to that and he's long gone. Made him a prime time bet. Chased a pricey front runner who ran way, way too fast while opening up six to the far turn. Without being asked Whiskey Sunrise inhaled him and drew off as much MUCH the best.
Finished the day a nice three-for-seven and on a nice little roll.
And so as we closed out the spring season I went through and added up my numbers. I was happy all things considered - playing every day at a "lower quality" Gulfstream meet - that they turned out like they did: 363 / 123 - 77-45 ..... that's a 34% win average and a 2-out-of-3 66.6% in the money number. And two final notes from the week. First, with the new Gulfstream schedule and with NYRA racing returning, hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney is leaving South Florida until this fall. So after she announced that on Sunday I tweeted her out a message and minutes later got a response, that was cool.
And I just had to share this. One of my buddies from Cypress Bay, assistant principal Jeff Nelson has a daughter that I've known since she came to Cypress Bay High as a freshman and we've been friends for years. As she graduated from college and became a young adult we are now Facebook friends. She's started a blog and she's shared many personal thoughts and I told her when she first announced she was doing this that I too blogged and not many people read it, but I promised I would read every entry. And when she wrote about how she had low self-esteem we exchanged several messages where I assured her she was a very cute girl and any male would agree with that. She's looked very good in many FB photos, but the one she posted this weekend was just too good not to post for me to look back on through the years. Here's the very adorable Chloe Nelson...
Thursday - Friday
Well, honestly there isn't much to discuss about these two days. And I should have known better with my selections/bets. As I handicapped the Thursday card I had two thoughts. One, I really didn't think we'd be on the turf which often makes the race a completely new dynamic of runners and two, by and large the card "felt" like a typical Gulfstream spring/summer card where there is really very little to hang your hat on. I've found during the Championship Season I'll have six to ten bets a day on a Gulfstream card and the rest of the year two or three tops. Well, both of my assumptions proved to be true. Off the turf so my first bet wasn't until Race 4 (6th at 3/1). And late in the day two odds-on, "everybody knows they'll win" picks did not win. Genghis was 2/5 and finished second after a horrific trip from start to finish in the 7th and in the 9th and finale (which was odd in and of itself that there were only nine races today) Shez Stuck Up, a MTO who laid over the field was wide throughout and no match for the inside front-running second choice - 2nd at 4/5 odds. And so we went to Friday's card still looking for the first win of the week. On Friday the first and third were off the turf and I had a pick in both. But after listening to the analysis and looking at the board for the opener I decided to forego the bet. Good thing....the horse I put on top ran fifth while my second choice scored. In the 2nd I was the 7/5 favorite in a 2yo maiden event....took the lead, but ran greenly and got collared late, second. In the third, off the turf led to MTO Combination who looked MUCH the best on paper. And despite being wide from his post from the start, through the turn, and into the lane he galloped out under mild urging as TONS the best to give me my first winner of the week.
In the 4th I was wide throughout and 7th at 3/1 on the grass. Led into the lane in a 5f turf sprint in the 7th at 7/2 but weakened to be third after going :21.1 for the opening quarter. I had what I thought was the inside speed in another turf sprint in the ninth but was out-quicked to the front and then was steadied on the turn. Sixth at 2/1. And in the finale I was the 6/5 favorite, "everyone's single" and was way, WAY too far back in a one-turn mile. Rallied for a non-threatening second place finish.
Saturday May 30th
My plan was to play Gulfstream, Santa Anita and Churchill Downs. But on Thursday it was announced that Laurel was opening and so I decided to play there. And then when I got the free Brisnet pp's for Churchill they came with the pp's for Tampa so I played there as well. Should have stuck with my original plan because I even said to Kim, today was "just a day" where it would be hard to find horses at any venue who had a true advantage. Sure I could find bets, but not like I normally would find on a Saturday. In the opener at Laurel where all day, every horse was coming off of extended layoffs, I ran 12th at 3/1 after stumbling to my nose out of the gate to lose all chance. Ran third as the 3/2 favorite in the opener at Churchill. At Tampa I was concerned when I'm A G Six was taken to the back in a six horse field going a mile-40, but top rider Antonio Gallardo (who was a 42% winner for this barn) handled him confidently and he blew by late to score.
I went against the favorite in Gulfstream's third, even though he was my first inclination to make my win bet on. Took Nothins Free as the "loose on the lead" type. Right call as he led into the lane and opened up going a one-turn mile. But the :45 half was too quick and he was reeled in late, finishing third. The "highlight" of the Saturday card came in the third at Churchill Downs. It was a maiden special going nine furlongs on the turf. I liked Elle M'a Souri who'd already gone down to defeat in six starts with three very close seconds and a third. Either she just didn't have the will to win or had been really unlucky. I thought the distance would help and I also believed she'd run well despite excuses. Today was the day (or it would be time to give up on her). As the field spun out of the far turn into the long Churchill stretch she found herself daylight behind the second choice in the betting with work to do. But she accelerated and was gaining ground with every stride. The two fillies hit the wire together (see the photo at the top of the page, the middle photo). I thought but was not sure that she'd won. The numbers came up and it was the #4, I'm a winner! Went off at a generous - I thought - 9/5 and with my triple investment yielded a return of over $40. With two wins from my first five picks I thought I was about to have a big day. Not so fast Webby.
Ran 4th at Tampa at 3/5 and third at 8/5 at Laurel before we came to the fourth at Gulfstream. I thought there two very legitimate and evenly matched runners in this MSW turf event going a mile. To me what separated Ocean Air from North Broadway was that jockey Irad Ortiz who often rides the best Chad Brown runners, had opted for Ocean Air over the Brown filly, North Broadway. But for what ever reason, that one scratched. So I re-read my analysis and looked at the pp's and thought, well, without the "other" top choice, North Broadway is the play. Got a great ride and proved much, MUCH too good for this field to win as the 3/2 favorite.
By now it's about 2:30 in the afternoon and I've only had eight picks, but won with three of them so I'm STILL thinking I'm going to have a really good day. Little did I know that I would only get to the winner's circle three more times over the next four hours of racing. Over the next eight races and hour and a half on the clock I had eight selections and finished second four times and third four times. And at odds from 6/1 to 2/5. My trip comments: "way too far back; led, caught; wide throughout; five wide in a five horse field; late bid; 3-to-5 wide into stretch; bid,, flat; edged to the front, caught on the wire." Frustrating to say the least. This brought me to the eighth at Gulfstream, another "logical single" as the analysts said in Venezuelan Hug going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. Sent off as the prohibitive 1/2 favorite he was far, FAR back through a dawdling pace and looked out of it as they turned for home. But once in the clear he was running two strides to one on the leader and they hit the wire together - PHOTO FINISH (see top banner pic, photo on the left). Again, I thought I'd won but it was way too close to have any confidence in. The numbers came up and I had my fourth winner today.
Missed on three more before scoring in a maiden event at Santa Anita. Brix had already been out nine times but this looked like the right spot with top rider Flavian Prat on board. Much like Venezeulan Hug, she looked beaten at the top of the lane but was FLYING late and it was again, too close to call - PHOTO finish. (See top banner, pic on the far right). Got the head bob again. Can't tell you the last time I had three photos go my way on the same day.
The last win of the day was one of the most authoritative. Fearless had won his debut at Gulfstream for Todd Pletcher this winter - no surprise. Came right back to win at a very generous 3/1 price on Holy Bull Day when I had him in an entry level allowance. His next start was in the Grade 2 New Orleans Handicap and while he might not have won he was interfered with in the stretch leading to the DQ of another runner. So when he came back last time out at Oaklawn in allowance company I thought he was the winner. But he was so very far back that day that his late close was to little, too late. Today at Churchill Downs if he was kept a little closer I thought he was clearly the best horse. The crowd thought so also making him the even money favorite. But again he lagged far back to the top of the lane. But he came flying and blew by to win by daylight.
I was disappointed when my top choice in two Grade 3 events in the final two selections of the day both failed as the favorite. But walked away with six more wins for the spring.
Sunday March 31
I thought to myself as the day began that either (a) the card was much like the rest of the GP cards this week, without many clear-cut winners or (b) the numbers should start to balance out for the week. But that's not the way it played out. In the opener I took a shot with a price play from the Saffie Joseph barn. Ran really well at 6/1 but was only third. Passed the next three (see the kind of card I'm talking about?). The fifth was a turf sprint and my top choice was an also-eligible. But despite a couple scratches he too scratched. Went with my top in-the-field pick who was 2/1 but was completely outrun to finish 9th. Wow. Was 2/1 with a Chad Brown firster on the rail in a dirt MSW sprint. Squeezed back to last at the break....sigh....and then in the 7th my pick, the co-2/1 favorite got a terrible ride. In a short field was way back despite a slow pace, then in a small field the rider came up the inside, in obvious traffic from the backstretch on. And surprise, surprise had no where to run. When finally free she closed willingly but too late, second. Is it another one of "those" days? In the eighth it looked on paper very wide open. But of the favorites I thought two of them were clear "play against" types. Frosted Grace had been my BEST of the day last time and had just not run well until the final 16th when she blew by everyone but the winner, and he was WAY back of that one. OK, maybe it was the off-going, but I didn't think so. And First Deal had been white-hot last summer winning three straight including two stakes for trainer Jorge Navarro. But since moved out of that one's barn he'd run two dull races. By contrast Royal Squeeze was the class of the field, but as I scanned through the pp's I dismissed him at first because two back he raced at this level and was a well beaten third. But after going all through the field I looked again. That third - in only his 2nd non-stakes start in a year - had come behind two runners who both would be odds-on here. Give him a pass and then toss in the 2nd best of 62 workers for this (ahhh, 62!) and he looks good to me now. Tracked the leaders four wide and appeared to have little interest to the furlong pole but then he kicked into a whole other gear and was JUST up to win.
And at a generous 2/1 and change. Suddenly I'm 1-for-4 and almost even on the day. In the next, a five furlong turf race, trainer Louie Roussell III had already won once with one of his ship-ins from New Orleans and he's quickly appearing to have some quality runners. If Overnight Success was ready to roll he would be easily best. The only time he'd dropped into a level like this 3-lifetime event on his form was in an optional $20K event at Hawthorne and he won for fun. He was confidently handled by Hall of Fame rider Edgar Prado while pressing the leader into the lane. When asked to run under mild urging he was tons and I mean TONS the best.
Two in a row and now it was time for the BET of the Day. Entry level allowance races are always difficult because they draw such an eclectic group of runners. The "best" bet is typically a lightly raced runner who's faced winners only once or twice and has run as good or better vs. them as they did in their maiden win. And so we come to Whiskey Sunrise. In his 2yo debut he was a just-miss 2nd. Off a year-long layoff he returned as a DOMINANT winner in a state-bred MSW. In an entry level sprint like this he dueled and put away a highly regarded Todd Pletcher colt, only to be caught late, second but six clear of the rest of the field with a Beyer figure TEN points higher than his maiden win. Any thing close to that and he's long gone. Made him a prime time bet. Chased a pricey front runner who ran way, way too fast while opening up six to the far turn. Without being asked Whiskey Sunrise inhaled him and drew off as much MUCH the best.
Finished the day a nice three-for-seven and on a nice little roll.
And so as we closed out the spring season I went through and added up my numbers. I was happy all things considered - playing every day at a "lower quality" Gulfstream meet - that they turned out like they did: 363 / 123 - 77-45 ..... that's a 34% win average and a 2-out-of-3 66.6% in the money number. And two final notes from the week. First, with the new Gulfstream schedule and with NYRA racing returning, hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney is leaving South Florida until this fall. So after she announced that on Sunday I tweeted her out a message and minutes later got a response, that was cool.
And I just had to share this. One of my buddies from Cypress Bay, assistant principal Jeff Nelson has a daughter that I've known since she came to Cypress Bay High as a freshman and we've been friends for years. As she graduated from college and became a young adult we are now Facebook friends. She's started a blog and she's shared many personal thoughts and I told her when she first announced she was doing this that I too blogged and not many people read it, but I promised I would read every entry. And when she wrote about how she had low self-esteem we exchanged several messages where I assured her she was a very cute girl and any male would agree with that. She's looked very good in many FB photos, but the one she posted this weekend was just too good not to post for me to look back on through the years. Here's the very adorable Chloe Nelson...
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