Spring/Summer: Week 4

April 23 - 25:  Jeff's Birthday Week

After last week's less than inspiring week of selections I was anxious to get going again.  That made waiting through the Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday "Dark Days" much more difficult.  But finally the racing week was upon us.  And I have to say, that maybe it's because of the "Shelter In Place/Stay Home" guidelines we're all under with the pandemic, but with the racing not starting until Thursday I'm "off" all week.  Friday feels like just another day; then Saturday feels like Friday.....  Just a side note of interest, at least to me :)

Thursday April 23

By the time we were minutes away from the first race on Thursday I had handicapped the card for Friday earlier in the day and I mentioned to Kim that I felt like today, Thursday, was the better of the two cards and that I felt like I had a couple of legitimate Pick-3 opportunities that would provide a nice profit if I could any of them (or the Daily Doubles I had in mind).  The race favorite, Lashka was my choice and she looked legitimate off of a very troubled last start.  All she needed was a good set-up.  In my analysis I mentioned she shouldn't be too far back because my second choice was a legitimate favorite and probably the one to catch.  Prophetic - just that way and I didn't catch her.  In the fourth race it was a 2-lifetime one-turn mile and there wasn't anyone who was running for a first time tag or first time in nw2L.  Usually that results in a "PASS" for the race.  But it was hard to look past the statistics for trainer Victor Barboza who had claimed Paynter Fest last time out.  He is winning at an unbelievable 55% (from 38 starters) first off the claim.  Paynther Fest's best-of-the-rest second two back behind a runaway winner (who'd be 1/5 here) was more than good enough to win in spite of the fact that the horse was moving UP in class.  Right to the front and never looked back as a 9/5 people's choice.

Cashed for almost $30 and I was alive in both the Daily Double and the Pick-3.  I had two horses in the fifth, including my WIN bet who was Ron Nicoletti's BEST of the day.  Valdolobo pressed the pace to the stretch and then nothing.  I left out the 5/2 second choice who won for fun.  Dead in both the P3 and DD.  Won the 6th with my BEST of the WEEK - even though I knew that Untitled would not pay anything, and I wasn't going to pad my bankroll, he still was worthy of that top wager.  This was a first level allowance for Florida-breds going a one-turn mile.  In Untitled's debut he earned a head-spinning 98 Beyer when winning by the length of the stretch.  The public was all over him when he ran next in the Grade 3 Swale, but he bounced as most first-time out maiden winners do off a huge effort like that.  Next time out he was in a Tampa allowance facing off with Todd Pletcher's highly regarded Gouverner Morris.  He gave that one all he could handle (finishing a best-of-the-rest-second) and then 'Morris came back to be third in the Gr 1 Florida Derby.  Untitled then shipped to New York to run in the one-turn mile Grade 3 Gotham.  Made a big move but couldn't keep up with the favorite and again was a best-of-the-rest 2nd.  Off two graded stakes and a race that easily COULD have been a graded event - all in OPEN company - he just looked like an easy-peasy-pie winner.  And he was.  TONS the best.

Was 2/5 at one point...1/5 at post time, but all the late money was on him and he only paid $2.20.  Still, as I've often said, while I'll never turn down making money, it's all about being right and betting with the degree of confidence I have in the selection.  Fourth at a solid 6/1 in the 7th I came right back to score in the eighth.  Money Never Sleeps in a starter optional claiming event for 3yo going seven furlongs.  You next to never see a runner claimed from a powerful stable - like Todd Pletcher in this case - and then MOVE UP in his subsequent races.  But trainer Terri Pompay had done this with 'Money.  First off the claim she nearly matched her career best when breaking her maiden and then improved her number again when a best-of-the-rest third behind two fillies that were daylight clear of everyone else in an allowance event.  Down into this starter event she looked best.  Sat patiently behind four rivals vying on the front end to the top of the stretch, then swung into the clear.  Ran by everyone like they were tied to the rail and scored for fun as the 8/5 favorite.

The payoff resulted in nearly $30 into the account as I had my third winner on the day.  The final bet of the day came in the featured ninth, a second level allowance going nine furlongs on the turf.  As I said in my analysis, ".... this may sound obvious, but it's either Temple in here or it's not ...."  Since claimed by Michael Maker he'd run five straight races in the mid-to-low 90s, all of which would probably win here.  The problem was that while he was consistent, he'd not shown any improvement.  As the field turned for home, SEVEN of them were bunched with jockey Luis Saez opting to try and wait for room along the rail.  Looked like a bad idea until the furlong pole when there was J-U-S-T enough room to get through and Temple burst through to win going away.  I'd only bet the minimum, but it was good enough to collect over $10 and give me four wins from just seven selections.  I LIKE these kind of days at the races :)

Friday April 24
The day started out with ominous foreshadowing as I thought the first race was a wide-open maiden claiming event going two turns on the turf.  I mentioned that if I were betting, and I was not, I'd like Mr. Tito on the rail.  Yes, you guessed it.  He won.  And not at the 5/1 price he was in the Form but at 10/1 odds.  Sigh.....  I told myself I'd be doubly upset if I didn't play the early double because I had the 4/5 favorite in the second.  But he was no threat when a runner-up to the 5/1 third choice.  Passed the third and then I had a Daily Double going in the fourth and fifth.  Both were turf sprints and even though both my top choices would probably be odds-on, it was like "giving away money" by hooking them together.  The fourth was a maiden claiming event and I'm Prayingforthat was the most obvious choice, first because of all the reasons the others would NOT win.  Only five numbers earned by the combined 47 starts of her eight rivals would compete with all three of her career numbers and NONE of those were likely to be earned today.  And her WORST figure was the only number they would beat if they ran to their best.  In her dirt debut she'd run well enough, but then she dropped in class a notch and sprinted on the turf today with a best-of-the-rest 2nd.  Tried two turns last time out and was steadied in Maiden Special company.  Back in for a tag and to sprinting she was the DRF BEST Bet.  Right to the front and never, ever in doubt.

The final odds of 3/5 netted me nearly $20 for a double investment.  In the second half of the double I had a triple investment WIN wager on winning machine Tiger Blood.  At first glance I thought this might be a good spot to go against this guy who was 8-for-9 at the distance.  Why?  Because all his other scores had come in starter optional claiming and this was a second level allowance - much tougher competition.  But when you scanned through the field NONE of these had had any success at this level.  OK, that levels out that negative.  Since last July he'd run only two races that gave the rest of the field any hope.  One was last July at Kentucky Downs when he earned an 86 Beyer.  And that was over their unique undulating course, and more importantly going 6 1/2 furlongs - Tiger Blood rules at FIVE furlongs.  The only other figure, his worst on the page came when the connections experimented with a two-turn route in a starter stakes.  Toss that.  You could question if he would be able to get to the front and maybe if outsprinted early from his inside draw he'd have a difficult time getting the trip; if he DID get to the front he might have to go too fast.  But in the end he was simply too good for these I thought.  He burst out of the gate under regular rider Edgard Zayas and blistered the opening fractions in a torrid :21.1 and :43.3.  Too fast?  Maybe, but when the closers came he was all heart and held them off comfortably.

AND The Daily Double

The triple investment returned nearly $25 for my second winner on the day.  And with the big $5 Daily Double play I'd converted two prohibitive 3/5 favorites into a 2/1 WIN bet.  Cashed for over $16 on that bet.  NICE.  In the eighth I employed THE most important rule in handicapping.....there ARE NO RULES!  That applied here because the adage is, "never bet a horse - especially at a short price - to do something for the first time (or that they've never done before" and that was exactly what was going on with my top choice, Eve of War from the Todd Pletcher barn.  She debuted in a six furlong dirt sprint and had wired the field in a sensational performance as the 1-2 favorite (yes, I had her that day).  But she'd disappointed in the next when completely compromised at the start.  Now she was going two turns on the turf.  Add in that Pletcher was a cold 5-for-41 at the Spring/Summer meet to date.  But she was bred up and down for two turns and the turf and I thought if she ran anything close to her debut she was the winner.  Right to the front and in complete control to the top of the lane when the second choice made a bold bid and got nearly on even terms.  They dueled for about a sixteenth of a mile, but in the final two hundred yards Eve of War drew clear.  WHOOO HOOO I've got my third winner on the day.

Following this race I had two "PASS" events in a row so Kim and I had timed it out where we could go on our "date night" to pick up our steak dinner from Outback.  We returned home and "dined" out on the pool deck with the waterfront view......

I've found it interesting that over the past month when ever I've posted something about Kim and I and how we are doing with the "Stay At Home" situation that we get SOOOO many social media hits.  You'll note above that we had fifty-five "likes" and five comments.  Trust me, for one of my Facebook posts, that's a lot.  Missed with the 3/2 favorite who went too fast going two turns in the ninth before the finale.  And in here it was my UPSET SPECIAL for the day.  And as we finished dinner I was able to watch this race live.  This was another five furlong turf sprint and it was a cheap maiden claiming event.  Several weeks ago there was a similar dirt sprint like this where no one looked worth a wager but there was a first time starter from the Gilberto Zerpa barn and he wins at nearly 50% with these.  He did that day and I had it at a $15+ payoff.  So with no one standing out today I made Kobe Fifty Two at 12/1 in the program my top choice.  As I turned on the live feed we were about five minutes from post time and he'd been bet down all the way to 3/1.  I just had this feeling that I KNEW he'd win in wire fashion under the "Minister of Speed," jockey Emisael Jaramillo and with the betting action I was oh-so-tempted to up the bet.  But my conservative side said, "Look, we've already got three wins, and a daily double....let's not press the issue."  Woulda, coulda, shoulda.  Right to the front and coasted EASILY.  Paid $9.20 so I still collected nearly $25 on the minimum bet, but it could have been nearly $50 with simply doubling the bet.  Oh well, have to be content with a 4-for-6 day at the races AND cashing a $5 COLD Daily Double play, right?

Saturday April 25 - Happy Birthday Jeff

Yes, the oldest son turns the page on another year and now I have a son who's nearly 40 years old.  How did THAT happen?  I still think I'm "growing up" and attractive to the 18-20 year-old hotties I see from time to time!  LOL.  So to be honest, overall Saturday wasn't a "bad" day, but it was far from coming close to the way the week had started out.  I did cash in on a Pick-3 and a Daily Double on the day, but my price horse didn't win in any of those events so I was happy to "get out" with a flat bet profit for the double, multi-race wagers.  I also played the Oaklawn card where there were three oh-so-obvious "winners."  But for the day I had only one cashed ticket - luckily it was the "BEST" of the day and at the "best" price of all the added investment wagers.  After passing both the first two at Gulfstream I liked Lanse Mitan enough in the third to not only make him the kick-off leg of the Pick 3 but to bet him to win straight up, albeit with the minimum.  He was the DRF Best, but I've learned that when Mike Welsch says that, it really doesn't add a lot of confidence to the selection.  He wins far, FAR less of his BEST than I do, just sayin'.  It looked to be him after he'd been second best at Tampa behind a runner who'd come right back to win, and that 2nd was in for a higher tag.  His main rival was just inside him at 9/2 on the board.  I used them both in the Pick-3 wager.  That one took the lead at 7/2 with my WIN wager tracking him.  Dueled into the lane and I opened up and edged clear while the other faded to third.  Collected a little over $10 on the favorite, but I am alive in the Pick-3.

In the second leg jockey Irad Ortiz was making his return to the saddle after taking more than a month off.  He was on the likely favorite, who I included in the Pick-3, but I preferred Peacock Kitten who was 3/1 at post time.  As the field spun out of the turn Peacock Kitten was looming dangerously right behind The Mighty Judge, Ortiz's horse.  That one came to the leader and I looked to split them.  But the inside horse veered out close to 'The Judge and I had to briefly steady.  Drifted back towards the rail and I was urged into the seam only to be cut off again.  Not saying I would have won but I certainly didn't get a fair chance to win.  But, I'll take staying alive in the Pick-3.  And he'd been one of two horses I played in a 2-by-3 Daily Double.  In the fifth I liked first time starter Chasing Anna who was 6/1 in the program.  Right to the front at 5/1 going 7f in MSW company but the splits (:22.1 and especially :44.4 for the opening half mile) were too quick.  Gave way late and all hope of a pricey return on the two multi-race bets went out the window.  In the final 16th of the race I was assured of cashing both as the two runners who'd separated themselves were both mine, on both tickets.  BUT they were the 8/5 favorite and 9/5 second favorite.  At least it was the latter.  While I'd like to have made $50 or more, still I'd been entertained, won three in a row and cashed three tickets to start the day in Hallandale.  Can't really complain about that, right?

In the sixth, and oh how I wish I'd used THIS horse as the key for the multi-race wagers, but I didn't.  My plan had been, with rain in the forecast to make the "Main Track Only" as a PRIME TIME win bet and a single in a Pick-3 sequence and Daily Double.  But the races stayed on the turf and so I had considered an alternative ticket using the top three turf picks but going 4-by-3-by-3 was going to run me almost $20 for a small Pick 3 or Daily Double and I just didn't think it was worth the investment.  Had I played the double in races 5-6 for a dollar it would have cost me $12 and I would have collected $14.80; if I'd played the $.50 Pick-3 it would have cost $24 and would have paid $28 with the double in those two races costing $9 to get $22....but as it turned out a straight up win bet was the best way to go.  The sixth was on the turf going five furlongs for entry level allowance horses.  Catharsis lured Irad Ortiz and was 6-for-16 at the distance and 5-for-12 locally.  That really appealed to me.  AND in this Allowance-Optional Claiming event she'd already won this condition THREE times.  She sat right off the leader to the stretch, asked for run and ran by to win by daylight.  She went off a lucrative 9/2 and paid $11.60.  With my double investment I collected nearly $60.  Much lower risk for a much better return on investment.  Well played Mr. Mark.

Missed the seventh when the even money favorite was trapped behind horses and couldn't get out until too late and then a Pletcher 4/5 favorite was a show nothing 7th in the 8th for me.  I don't mind losing, it's part of the game, but I DO mind when my horse doesn't run and/or isn't ridden the way I think he should be.  Such was the case in the 9th, the featured Unbridled Stakes for 3yo.  Relentless Dancer had always run his best on the front end and he looked like the lone speed.  But jockey Chris Landeros tried to track the speed....the winner was the favorite, a Pletcher odds-on runner.  Sigh....so he DOES NOT win with the short priced fav when I'm on and DOES WIN when I'm not.  Thanks Todd.  Passed the 10th and then I was just amazed when graded stakes winner Global Campaign was allowed to go off at 5/2 odds in a conditioned allowance.  That was because (a) he was coming off a layoff and facing older for the first time, but also (b) because a Pletcher colt was made the short priced favorite.  I'd had Soldado in both his wins so far this year.  But prior to his last, which was a gutsy performance, the connections had said they thought he was a stakes kind of runner.  Instead of going in a stakes, here he was in an allowance AND stretching to seven furlongs.  I liked neither part of that move.  Sure enough he was a badly beaten sixth.  Meanwhile, Global Campaign looked to take his time before finding his running shoes, but when put into the clear some six wide in the stretch he ran down the cavalry charge of runners who'd fanned across the track.

My triple investment on the "best" of the day at Gulfstream led to a nearly $60 payoff and made my day, at Gulfstream at least, a winning one. Not so much at Oaklawn.  I was taken by a photo that I saw online of the empty stands at Oaklawn and so I pulled up a picture I'd taken on Arkansas Derby Day from nearly the same spot......

Sad, but at least there IS racing.  I had two seconds, a third and a 4th before the first of the stakes races.  In the Bachelor Stakes Bob Baffert sent out Gr 1 winning Eight Rings who just looked way, WAY too good for these.  But on the turn when making "the move" he just flattened out to be fifth.  In the featured Carousel Stakes, a six furlong sprint for older fillies and mares I KNEW I had the right one in Mia Mischief.  And in spite of her being a Grade 1 winner and a "Horse for the Course" at Oaklawn I thought I'd get at least a "fair" price.  The crowd would almost certainly favor So Cal shipper and multiple Gr 1 winner Bellafina.  But what I'd learned the hard way, when she'd lost TWICE for me is that she's an outstanding sprinter or even router in Southern California, especially Santa Anita.  But in every start outside of California not only didn't she win, but she didn't run well.  Add in that today she was on the rail and historically wasn't the sharpest of breakers.  Sure enough, she broke slowly and was immediately shuffled back.  Not so with Mia Mischief who broke from the outside and quickly was stalking the pace of the very quick Amy's Challenge.  Into the lane Mia Mischief collared her and then put on a real display of power and she ran away as tons the best.

The 3/2 post time odds allowed my prime time bet to collect $50 and turn the 0-for day at Oaklawn into a reasonable loss and made the day overall a very minimal loss while collecting four more wins.

Sunday April 26

In anticipation of the rains and with the small rain showers on Saturday the first two turf races were off on Sunday.  But that's ok because I'd handicapped for both scenarios.  And two great stories top the week off.  In between the first and last wagers of the day my runners simply didn't fire.  No complaint today on the rides, they did exactly what I expected and when asked to finish they didn't so it goes in racing.  But here were the two races that carried the day to a profitable end of the week.....  In the opener - before the rains hit - it was scheduled to be five furlongs on the grass.  I had made Go Gone Gone the pick if moved to the dirt because his past performances showed not one, not two, but three main track wins.  He was 8/1 in the program for turf, figured much lower on the dirt.  But when the betting was only ten minutes from post he was still 8/1.  What the?  So before making the bet I waited to see what hottie Acacia Courtney and sidekick Jason Blewitt would say about the opener.  As they came on air and their picks were under their video pictures I noted BOTH liked the #7 who was not in my analysis anywhere to be found AND he was the betting favorite.  I waited for Blewitt to finish his analysis (while he's a "good" handicapper and often makes valid points, in my opinion he's rarely got a real gem of an insight and pretty much says whats in the past performances with his opinion sprinkled in).  But it was Courtney that I wanted to hear - she typically likes the same horse I do, but what appeals to me (besides her strikingly good looks) is that she often reads between the lines and sees things I don't.  In this case she pointed out that the favorite "obviously" had the best dirt form in the race AND looked to be the lone speed.  Wait, that's why I liked Go Gone Gone.  So I opened up the past performances and sure enough, while I had four wins on dirt, the favorite had ELEVEN.  Maybe Acacia and the crowd are on to something.  Change the bet.  I considered it and looked at the probable payoffs in the early double - everyone liked the 7 in here also.  Then the decision came to me clearly....NO, I handicapped the race, I looked at it as if moved to the dirt and Go Gone Gone IS a likely winner.  Besides, I reasoned.  What IF my horse won, at a nice price and I'd HAD it and let him go.  Flashbacks to a couple weeks ago when I had a Chad Brown horse who went off at 9/1, he was the top pick with a double investment and I let the crowd and Acacia & Jason talk me off it - well, ok, I take responsibility for the decision - but still flashbacks big time.  I stuck with my pick.  Right out of the gate the #7 was on the lead.  But immediately I was on his hip.  On the turn I glided by without being asked and when the favorite tried to re-rally my horse would have none of it and I pulled clear.  I immediately said out loud, "I am SO SMART!" which drew the attention of my wife who I told the story to s the $11.60 mutual flashed on the screen and I cashed for almost $60.  YAY ME!

The day ended with two great calls on my part.  First, the last race of the day was scheduled for the turf but the deluge of rain had washed it off.  Still my pick was in the race.  Play or not to play.  I considered it and then thought, nope....in this race I didn't like anyone if it wasn't on the turf and I wasn't going to let the "action" lure me in.  He was well beaten - another good call by me.  The ninth race was labeled my UPSET SPECIAL and I thought I was going to really make some money here.  The original field of twelve were scheduled to go a mile and a sixteenth on the turf and as I looked down the past performances it was a "like DUH" epiphany - no one, and I mean NO ONE wanted the lead in here, except my pick, Roddick who was a remarkable 20/1 in the program.  AND he had the "Minister of Speed" Emisael Jaramillo on board.  He wires this field for fun I thought.  So what if it comes off the turf?  STILL, no one wants the front AND we get the added benefit that a dirt race at this distance uses the first finish line, which means a front runner has a shorter distance to "hold on" to the wire.  I knew on the dirt there would be scratches and I wouldn't get 20/1, but most assuredly I'd get 10/1 or so.  Sure enough the field was whittled down to just a half dozen and as I looked at the odds and the multi-race payoffs I was surprised that the #12 was being so heavily bet.  So I opened up my Racing Form.  He'd run on the dirt AND nearly all his Beyer figures were better than Roddick's AND he had hot-riding Irad Ortiz on board.  Hmmmm.  Am I wrong?  I looked at the two of them, back and forth.  Finally the decision.....YES, the favorite had the better speed figures, BUT most recently his numbers were not quite as good as his best races and also, IF Roddick got loose on the lead he could very easily improve his speed figure.  Add in that the favorite would be closing and I thought run out of time with the short stretch and I was all in on my bet.  Roddick was on the board around 6/1 which was fair when the alluring Acacia came on air.  She picked....RODDICK.  Oh no Acacia!  I wasn't surprised she picked him but she then proceeded to tell everyone listening WHY he would win.  And Jason Blewitt had him second.  The odds went to 5/1, then 9/2 then 4/1, then 7/2 and as they walked into the gate he was the 5/2 second choice.  WOW. From 20/1 - which would mean a $200 payoff (ok, unrealistic, but still a fella can dream right?) to a probably $35 payoff.  Well, better than 4/5.  And the gates sprung open.  Right to the front, on cruise control until they were approaching the far turn.  Then Irad Ortiz demonstrated why he IS one of the best in the game.  He too had obviously studied the form so he began what should have been a stretch rally on the turn.  Midway on the turn he was on near even terms and the two of them began to duel.  The favorite had all the momentum as they turned into the lane and I thought it was over.  But Jaramillo held tight to the rail and cut the corner expertly.  So while the favorite floated a length wider he lost about 3/4 of a length.  OK, we have a chance!  Quickly Ortiz pushed for more and they were on even terms, shoulder to shoulder, one head up and one head down.  It would come down to who wanted it more and/or a head bob.  They hit the wire together....PHOTO finish.  I called Kim over to watch the slow motion replay and didn't tell her which was mine....she said, "I think the inside horse," YES - I replied that's what I think, that's me!  Sure enough, "Ladies and Gentlemen the result of the photograph shows #10 Roddick the winner of Race 9" called out Announcer Pete.  And the best part of the story......soon after they left the gate the late money was added into the win pool and somehow - because EVERYONE pounded the favorite - Roddick floated up from 5/2 to 4/1 odds.  Now THAT'S more like it.  The winning mutual of $10 resulted in a $50 payoff and I'm a winner for the day.

For the week I won nearly 40% and added almost $70 to my profitable bankroll while putting up a big ROI for the week on every $2 invested.  Gotta love the races!

Apple Blossom - Rainbow Pick 6 Payout Week

Truly the "story" of the week is that there really were NOT any stories.  Something that is quite unusual in my world.  Well, I guess that's not entirely accurate because the "leading stories" on the first two days of racing were about losses and on the "big day" of racing - Saturday - that I didn't fare so well (zigged when I should have zagged) which led to the final day which DID have a very interesting story.  Here's how it all played out....don't blink, you may miss the first three days of this week's chronicle!

Thursday April 16

After having consecutive weeks where I cashed a large payout on a Pick-3 I was excited to get back to the races - virtually of course - but I was very, very cognizant of not forcing a bet where one didn't exist.  I was excited for the week to kick off because both today and Friday had the first two juvenile races of the season.  At this time of the year when the two-year-olds run at Keeneland it's virtually as simple as finding the Wesley Ward trainee.  So I was curious to see if the Spring/Summer Meet here at Gulfstream - with no Keeneland racing due to the pandemic - was REALLY going to reflect the Keeneland spring meet.  Sure enough on both days there was a highly regarded Ward 2yo in the field who figured to take some serious beating.  Even before I began to actually handicap I KNEW that the "dilemma" would be EITHER you assume that his 2yo's will run like they do at Keeneland and you'd probably get a slightly better price here because you know many handicappers felt the way I did, or you looked for value and assumed that until Ward proved his 2yo could run here like they do at KEE that they'd be vulnerable.  I leaned toward the former.  And once I looked at the Form his starter just looked formidable.  Well, ok, so NONE of the runners (obviously) had been out, but the works were sizzling, the draw was good, and he'd enlisted hot-riding Tyler Gaffalione.  In the 2nd on Thursday was the first of the 2yo races.  Lime left the gate as a prohibitive 1/5 favorite.  Gunned right to the front and literally within five jumps was five lengths clear.  As they hit the turn and Tyler G was sitting chilly I was thinking, "I KNEW I was right" and smiled.  Then as they approached the top of the lane the second choice was still in the hunt.  Gaffalione asked for Lime to finish the job and she didn't spurt away.  Uh oh.  Run down in the final strides.  WOW.  I told Kim minutes later that "we'll find out tomorrow about the Ward runners - was this an exception or would his 2yo not be the same here?"  Ran third in the third race and that brought us to the fourth, a nw2L sprint.  As I wrote, it was hard to have confidence in any of these, but there was one and one ONLY runner who'd never been in a two-lifetime event, Probably Grace.  AND what appealed to me was this....She'd debuted with a win at Hawthorne in Chicago then shipped here and run a very close 2nd.  BOTH those races came under the care of trainer Larry Rivelli.  She was claimed out of that second start but ran poorly in both her next two.  And, she was claimed out of each.  But out of the last it was Rivelli who re-claimed here for $12.5K.  Dropped her into this $6.25K - I assumed because he figured she'd win and he'd recoup most of the claim money.  She went off at a lucrative 9/2 price but was a step slow out of the gate.  Hustled into third then cruised up to challenge the 22/1 leader and drew off.  Doubled the bet and cashed for nearly $60 which almost covered the six losing selections on the day.

Friday April 17
Missed in the opener and in the second, the two-year-olds were lining up and the Wes Ward favorite, Golden Pal looked even stronger than the filly did on Thursday.  Went off at a "better" price of 1-2 and again Gaffalione shot to the front.  COMPLETELY in control turning for home, and then again the second choice - from the same owners and trainer and jockey - blew by to beat him.  OK, so I was wrong.....be careful with the Ward 2yo, not nearly as good in the Florida sunshine than they are in the spring time at Keeneland in Lexington.  In the fourth I had a Saffie Joseph horse with Tyler G again.  The 8/5 favorite stalked to the turn then pulled up.  Then fifth at 7/5 and 2nd at 4/5 before closing the day in second - AGAIN - as the even money favorite.  Not a day I'll remember down the line.

Saturday April 18:  Apple Blossom Day

I was excited for the races today - not so much because of my picks, but the Grade 1 Apple Blossom has always been one of my favorite races of the year.  And we've been fortunate to be in Hot Springs not once but twice for the big event.  The day at Gulfstream saw me go 0-for again, but I had two Pick-3 races where I won both the first two legs with the "other" horse only to come up short in the final leg.  At Oaklawn I won the third, a Maiden Special with Too Pretty with a minimum bet.....

In the fifth I liked a 3yo in this maiden claiming sprint who figured hard to get by, but she scratched.  I looked at my analysis and I'd said that Skyvalue was a logical favorite and certainly the one to beat.  So even with the way the day was going I doubled the bet.  Wire to wire and I had my second winner of the afternoon in Hot Springs.

Scored with my "best of the day" at Oaklawn with Bob Baffert's Dessman who run in some big time events as a three-year-old last year out west.  If he was half-way ready he'd win.  He tracked the leaders in fourth to the far turn but wasn't "doing it on his own," and jockey Martin Garcia had to really get after him.  But once he swung into the clear on the outside he found another gear and it became just a matter of by how much when he'd get to the front.

The day ended with two losses in the two featured events where I SHOULD have had a nice score in the first of them.  In the Grade 3 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap Whitmore was going for his fourth win of this event.  He LOVES Hot Springs and ALWAYS runs big here.  He was a likely winner.  But this year with all the other tracks being closed, the race had drawn a stellar field.  And one of them was Bill Mott's Hidden Scroll.  In my opinion the jury was still out on him.  In his two wins he'd been sensational and as TVG analyst Scott Hazelton said prior to the race, he might just be in a class of his own going one turn, and we could be watching the launching of a superstar season.  When he went off at 7/2 I was glad I'd taken him on the "promise" of how good he might be.  Nope.  Faded while the obvious choice, Whitmore blew by to win going away AND paid 3/1 on the board.  WOW.  Would have made the day.  Then in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom it looked to be a hot pace to set up for a closer and I gave Street Band one more chance.  The pace was wicked and she was closing.  But only for third.  So ended the day.

Sunday April 19:  Mandatory Rainbow Pick-6 Payout Day
When I handicapped the card on Saturday I wasn't aware and/or paying any attention to the fact that today was going to be a mandatory payout.  And honestly with the way the week had gone I was just hoping to win one race, maybe even two :)  But by Sunday morning the racing headlines were all about how the the pool would soar for more than five or six million.  So I sat down and went through my picks and compared them to what the four public handicappers had to say.  Then I thought I'd put together a ticket with out considering the cost.  What would my ticket look like if I really thought I had a chance to win?  Before I tell that story, I had two outright winners.  After running 4th in the second, third in the fourth and a dismal 8th in the fifth it was time for my "best" bet Bareeqa in a starter optional claimer on the turf going a mile.  The conditions called for runners who'd run for $16K and she'd beaten better than that of late.  She stalked the pace in fourth to the top of the lane, swung out into the clear and wore down the leader (my other pick in the Pick-6) and I finally had a winning pick at Gulfstream!

And in the ninth I was pretty confident I had "THE WINNER" in another starter event.  The conditions here read, "....for four year olds and up who have raced for $8K since April 1, 2019...." and my pick, Yes I See had only run for that tag once, winning on April 5th.  This race was written for her I was certain.  Fortunately she was NOT the favorite and she was my SINGLE in the Pick 6 so I felt a lot of pressure.  But the way she was moving on the turn I was confident.  Made her move and blew by to score and I cashed for nearly $40!

The story of the Rainbow Pick 6:  Gulfstream announced that they would have a mandatory payout and two things about that.  When that happens the jackpot becomes absolutely GI-NORMOUS; and because it's a mandatory payout the payout is always shared.  They do this every so often once the pot swells because the rules are you ONLY win the whole thing if you are the ONLY one with the single winning ticket.  If more than one person hits six of six then you split 70% of the pot and 30% carries over.  Heading into Sunday the carryover was $1.9 MILLION.  Every time they have a mandatory payout like this with that kind of carry-over the pool goes well over $5 million for the winners to share.  So I went back and forth about playing because two years ago at the Florida Derby I had five out of six and there have been a couple of times that IF I was willing to spend a little more money I would have it for a BIG prize.  So I put together a ticket.  Even with the bet being a twenty CENT wager, you don't have a reasonable chance to win unless you have several horses in several races.  But the trick is to "spread" with several races where the winner is less predictable and to find at least one race where you think you have a "single" so your ticket cost is not ungodly.  The sequence began in Race 6 where my "best" Bareeqa won and paid $4.20.  In Race 7 I thought there were two obvious win candidates with one who could upset the field.  Played all three.  Sure enough, the "upset" pick won and paid $9 so that would eliminate the small ticket players who played mostly favorites.  In the eighth race I thought it was a wide open affair and after going over and over it I "narrowed" it down to five runners, which also inflated the price of the ticket.  Was glad I did because it was one of the upsets in the sequence but I HAD the $15.40 winner.  I should tell you at this point in the story that by the time the Pick-6 started the pool closed at somewhere slightly over $8 million!  Race 9 was THE RACE.  I played only Yes I See and as I said above, she was NOT the favorite.  Paid $7.20 and I'm still ALIVE.  With the upset in the 8th and the single in the 9th I knew I'd be in a much more narrow group of possible winners.  In the next-to-last race it seemed like a WIDE open affair.  I thought there were three "likely" winners but I had put five on my ticket.  Good thing, one of those won and paid $15.40.  Even more people wiped out of their chance at a big pay day and now we were down to the final race.  Of ALL the six races I thought it was THE most difficult and even though it really ballooned the price of the ticket I included SEVEN of the ten runners.  In that group of seven I had the #2 and the #10.....and as they turned for home I was on the lead with the 2 and had the closing 10 coming down the middle of the turf course with a full head of steam.

I have to tell you at this point a very important part to the story....when I put this ticket together I KNEW it would be costly, but I also thought when I began constructing it that the payoff would more than justify it IF I hit it.  The cost of playing a sequence of 2x3x5x1x5x7 for twenty cents came out to $210.  ANd when I had finished I went over and over the ticket and then talked to Kim.  I would be willing to go in for $50, maybe even $75 with a more than fair chance to win.  But $200 was a bit more than I wanted to spend.  What to do?  Because you KNOW what would happen if I didn't play the ticket.  But one miss and I'm out $200.  Back and forth....finally I made my decision.  I'd cut the ticket down and take my chances for just $21.  On the actual ticket I bet I got knocked out in the second leg because I only played the two horses, not all three.  But as the afternoon went on and my "big ticket" continued to be alive I began to have real mixed feelings.  So NOW you can imagine what I felt like in mid-stretch when I was on the lead and had the closing horse on the outside with all the momentum.  I HAD the winning Pick-6 ticket that would pay THOUSANDS and I didn't play.  OH NO.....but the horse on the rail slipped by my front-running #2 and my closer #10 couldn't catch him.  I would NOT have won.....I "saved" the $200 by not betting (as I thought might happen) but oh I was sooooo close and I would have been sick.  Here's the ticket I created:

Despite several non-favorites winnign there were a considerable amount of people who split the pot.  If you got six out of six.....

Now $20,158.94 is nothing to sneeze at and IF I'd played for $210 that wold MORE than have made for a profitable play.  But the last time they had a mandatory payout it paid $200,000 to those who shared it.  Of course there were more longshots that most bettors didn't have.  The two outright winners I had made me a profit for the day - a whopping two dollars - but hey, considering the way the week had gone, I was delighted!

Oaklawn Mile Week

Week 2:  April 9 - 12

The second week of the Spring/Summer racing season at Gulfstream was another really interesting, and profitable one.  And like all racing days and weeks, full of great stories!  Let's get right to it.

Thursday April 9
The opener for Week 2 required you to make some decisions....the most likely winner, I thought, had conflicting evidence as to supporting him or not AND he was nearly certain to be a short price.  So did you back him any way, did you look elsewhere, or did you simply watch?  Magical Mike was sent out by the red-hot Saffie Joseph barn, winning at 44% overall and was dropping from MSW into this $16K spot today.  He was taking blinkers off, a 26% winning move and jockey Victor LeBron had won with five of ten mounts for the barn.  All good.  BUT, ironically the most powerful class move in racing (MSW to MC) had produced an 0-for-11 result for Joseph.  What?  Just an anomaly or a reason to look elsewhere.  For me I thought it was the former and I went with him.  The only one who appeared to be a legitimate threat had already dropped to this level and didn't improve.  LeBron gave the colt a great ride, saving ground all the way through the far turn then tipping into the clear as heads turned for home and powering home.

The only surprise was that somehow his price floated up in the late stages of betting to better than 2/1 and it allowed my minimum play to return more than $15.  A great way to start the week.  Lost my next pick to scratch, then in the third I had the 7/5 favorite who came rallying late in another maiden claimer on the turf, too late, 2nd.  In the third - another MC on the turf - I got the perfect trip at 7/1 when third into the lane but had no punch, fading to eighth behind a 25/1 winner.  Passed the sixth.  In the seventh the first thing that caught my eye was the entry of Dominate Themoment who had been a BIG winner for me at 8/1 last time out.  That day the field was made up on runners who'd only won their maiden and all the others had broken theirs for $25 or less while he'd broken his for $50K but got DQ'd then came right back to beat $50K rivals again.  He was much the best that day.  I typically don't like to bet 3yo claiming events, and even less a sophomore who just won.  But it was virtually the same field and the other likely winner was a Mike Maker horse he'd beaten soundly last time out.  The two of them hooked up through the stretch and it was close, but I got the win again.  Cashed for over $25.

In the 8th I went for the gusto with a price play on the lead but went to fast (:22 and :45 going a mile on the turf) and paid for it fading to seventh.  Third at 2/1 in the 9th and was completely outrun in the finale at 2/1.  So two wins, but a minimal loss and an entertaining day.

Friday April 10
It was a week ago today that I had my BIG day with the Pick 3.  I tried to look for opportunities there weren't any.  In retrospect I have mixed feelings about playing the early daily double.  The reason I played the early multi-race bet - and to be fair it was a $1 play for a whopping $3 - was because I didn't have a pick in either race.  Since I was going to be watching I thought it was a "reasonable play" to provide some interest and I had a more-than-fair chance to win.  On the other side, easy to say in retrospect, I didn't have any one in either bet I felt confident in so why play a multi-race wager?  Maybe if I'd had a bet in one of the two.  I won the opening leg, not with the favorite, then had the odds-on choice in the second but he ran fourth.  You win some, you lose some I guess.  My pick in the third was on the turf but again I didn't like any of the main body runners so my choice was the Main Track Only.  Stayed on the turf so I lost the play.  The fourth then provided the first wagering opportunity of the day.  This was a high end $50K maiden claimer and Bird Map had made two starts as a juvenile and earned identical Beyers in those Kentucky tries (at two different tracks) off for a short break she returned in her 3yo debut and was a rallying 4th in another MSW, here with the winner coming right back to win.  Even a repeat of that effort made the logical favorite hard to beat and any improved forward movement - on the drop for a first time tag - with Luis Saez up for trainer Norm Casse, and she'd be a daylight winner.  She was off slowly and spotted the field at least five lengths, but she proved best by wearing down the 2nd choice (at 7/2) through the stretch.

I thought the 8/5 price was more than generous and with my triple event I collected nearly $40 with my first win bet and score of the day.  Ran 4th as the 9/5 choice in the next, with a minimum bet.  Then I thought I had a price play when I agreed with the DRF's Marty McGee that there was a ton of speed in the sixth and Killa Dee looked to run them all down late - AND he was 10/1 in the program.  Well, as is often the case the way the race looked on paper is not how it played out.  First, 'Bee was pounded at the windows down to 3/1 and second, jockey Paco Lopez broke sharply and took it to the field.  At first I just shook my head, but as they turned for home and was on a clear lead I was thinking I had made a "smart bet."  But in the final 50 yards two rivals got their heads in front.  Close, no cigar.  Missed with a minimum play in the seventh before cashing my second bet of the day.  The eighth was an entry level allowance for 3yo and it had the look of a "Keeneland race" where they all looked to have some talent.  My top choice was Shug McGaughey's Finding Fame.  It's widely known (in handicapping circles) that this Hall of Fame trainer rarely has them ready to roll first time out, much less WIN first time out.  And in watching the replay of her decisive score you COULD make the case that she'd benefited from a quick pace flow with a multiple front runners knocking each other out of contention.  But for me, the way she blew by, coupled with the fact it was a McGaughey firster told me that she might be something special.  She was stretching out to a one-turn mile today but as a daughter of champion Honor Code the distance didn't look to be a problem for the $425K sales grad.  She tracked the leaders between horses - difficult for a lightly raced runner to do - made a bid, but was repelled.  Well, that's that I thought, but then she came on again and edged clear to score at a nice 2/1 price.

Cashed for nearly $35 and I was very confident of getting a third win in the finale.  R Man Joe had led to the final jump in a stakes race last time out - AS A MAIDEN - and now dropped back into the maiden ranks today.  He was outrun to the front - probably due to his wide draw in post eleven.  But I anticipated this and thought it would lead to a very comfortable trip.  It did, he took over and looked clear until caught in the shadow of the wire.  Had to be content with a profitable day to close out the week and heading into Saturday's races.

Saturday April 11:  Oaklawn Mile Day

Saturday....what a day for payoffs!  AND full of stories, get another drink and settle in for these tales that are ALL GOOD in the end :)  The first sequence of stories are all about losses I suffered, but at the end of the day I could tell them with a smile on my face.  And just to frame the day's events, flash back to last weekend.  Coming off of a big Friday I cashed one and one only ticket from the combined Gulfstream & Oaklawn cards as a parade of longshots came in.  So the opener at Gulfstream saw me taking what looked to be a longshot in Bolt who drew the rail in a turf sprint under Emisael Jaramillo and was listed at 12/1 in the program.  Immediately bet to favoritism with the first flash of the board he left the gate as the 2/1 favorite.  Well, "left the gate" isn't accurate as he was away slowly, never made the lead and was steadied not once but twice before finishing a well beaten 11th.  But the winner was a 70/1 longshot, with the 2nd through 4th place finishers going off at odds of 22/1, 10/1 and 11/1.  That triggered a $1 exacta worth $1300, a $0.50 trifecta worth over $9000, and a superfecta that paid $52,500 FOR A DIME.  YOWZA.  But we were far from done.  In the second I had a Saffie Joseph drop down who was everyone's single and left the gate at 1/5 - the most predictable winner on the card.  Nope, too far back and just missed with his late rally when 2nd.  The winner - 34/1.  The superfecta with a 1/5 in second (over 17/1 and 60/1) was $300 for a dime and the $2 Daily Double paid $1500.  In the third I had the 9/5 favorite, who tracked the longshot leader, cruised up on the turn ready to roll by without being asked, but couldn't get by.  The winner was 36/1 setting off another set of big balloon payments.  Finally in the 4th I was able to cash.  And as I told Kim, I KNEW I'd win the next two bets on the sheet.  Why?  Because I'd also lost the opener at Oaklawn to an $11 winner and ALL four of my bets had been added money bets.  The next two plays were both minimum bets.  Sure enough, Enzoexpress dueled inside, was headed turning for home but then re-rallied to draw off and win at a nice $7.40 price.  Right after that at Oaklawn Miss Imperial stalked the leaders, blew by at the top of the stretch and widened through the lane to score as the 8/5 favorite.

Still, even though they were not big payouts and I only had the minimum I wasn't too far behind on the ledger and was suddenly 2-for-6...my typical 33%.  In the fifth at Gulfstream I went with a Chad Brown first time starter on the turf who ran a disappointing 6th at 4/1.  The winner was the 8/5 favorite, who I did not like at all.  So, with the first five races in the books at Hallandale we'd had winners that paid $148.40, $70.00, $75.20, $7.40, and $5.40.  If you had spent fifty cents on the Pick 5, and had it - which someone did - you cashed....for FIFTY CENTS mind you.....for $52,000!  OH MY!

Next up was the third from Oaklawn, a Maiden Special sprint.  Skol Factor figured to be the obvious favorite and would be REALLY hard to look past.  In his debut he'd run second, beaten a mere neck behind a talented Steve Asmussen colt in a smoking quick time of 1:09 and change.  The Beyer he earned of 83 was daylight clear of the par for the course and was the ONLY figure on the page that was better than the par number.  Right to the front and drew off looking like the real deal in another wickedly fast final time of 1:09.3.  Tripled the bet so I scored for nearly $30 as somehow he went off at almost even money, wow.

Moving on to the 6th story and despite the way the day turned out I'm still kicking myself.  The sixth was a maiden special event for three-year-olds and those with experience did little for me.  I liked, again, a Chad Brown first time starter.  And as I remarked in my analysis, unlike the last race pick this one - Mister Winston - showed several bullet works and was listed at a nice 9/2 price.  After I'd made my pick I looked at what the DRF's Mike Welsch and Gulfstream's Ron Nicoletti had said.  Welsch put the Also Eligible runner, Ima Pharoah, a second time starter from Todd Pletcher's barn on top - even as an AE.  And Nicoletti made his pick from the body of the race, but then he noted....in bold print, underlined and italicized that if Ima Pharoah got in he became the top pick.  WOW, how good must this colt be.  And so I added that if he got in I'd want to look at the payoffs.  So in my initial thinking I was NOT making him an automatic move to the top of the betting chart play.  Sure enough there were two scratches and he got in.  I looked at the payoffs for doubles, pick 3 and pick 4 plays and Ima Pharoah was the overwhelming choice.  I hesitated and then switched my bet.  As they turned for home he was dueling between runners as four were across the track.  He really fought gamely and kept his head in front all the way to the final jumps before a stalker circled the four of them and got up in the shadow of the wire.....yes it was.  Yes, Mister Winston.  And not at 9/2 but at a big 9/1 price.  Oh I was sick.  With the $10 bet I'd have cashed for over $100.  Luckily I'd earmarked this sequence of events as my lone Pick 3 of the day.  I went back to tell Kim that "I'd better hit the Pick 3 or I'm going to be REALLY upset!"

The seventh was a claiming event on the turf.  In late February Derby Champagne ran in a mile and a sixteenth event against Soglio who was odds-on that day.  And deservedly so.  He'd run in six stakes in his previous seven starts, four of them graded and he would have been odds-on in here.  But what caught my attention was that despite being 12/1 that day Derby Champagne was second to Soglio, beaten a mere neck.  A run back to that effort or to four of his past five Beyers would require a career best to defeat him.  That made him the single play in the Pick 3 but was only willing to double the investment because the last time he'd seen the winner's circle was 2018.  He was tracking the leaders into the stretch, shifted into the clear and was rolling late.  Tyler Gaffalione cut it close but was up in time and actually was confidently handling him through the final 100 yards.

Now, all we needed to do was get home the final leg and I had a very strong favorite in the eighth, a maiden special event going a one-turn mile.  Chad Brown's Per Capita had run twice and earned identical Beyer figures of 81.  That's significant on two fronts....first, that's a pole better than par for this level of racing (74) and second, both figures were better than a pole plus than any number earned by the rest of the field, all of which were below par.  The ONLY concern was that he'd not been out for several months, but that was mitigated by Brown's 28% win number with layoff runners.  Still, as I noted in my analysis, were this still the Championship Meet I'd feel more conflicted because Todd Pletcher was sending out a first time starter who had drawn over $1.2 Million at the sales auction and was working strongly.  I made the Brown runner the pick but in the Pick-3 I backed myself up with the Pletcher runner.  The Pletcher colt, Colonel Liam, went right to the front and led into the lane.  Per Capta tracked him, swung outside to engage him and edged clear about the sixteenth pole.  But Colonel Liam fought back and just as he was about to draw even along the rail Per Capita shifted inward and Luis Saez had to steady.  Per Capita drew off to win, but you knew the INQUIRY sign was coming up.  I quickly went to get Kim and had her watch the replay with me for a couple of very unique reasons.  First, I've seen far worse let go by the stewards, but it seemed like he'd come down.  But here's the thing....if Per Capita remained the winner and I had the WIN ticket and the Pick 3, I'd collect about half of what I'd get if he was DQ'd.  They looked at it for a long time and finally, down he came.  I graciously forfeited my winning ticket to DOUBLE my Pick 3 amount which was nearly $300!  WHOOOO HOOOOO.

Only at the races....and how clever am I.....I ran second when I SWITCHED my bet and HAD the $21 winner; won; and then won but was DQ'd and STILL hit the Pick 3.  GO ME!  Had a short break to celebrate and drink my wine (see above).  And then my next selection was in a MSW going a mile and a sixteenth at Oaklawn for three-year-olds.  Earner had post a big 86 Beyer in his debut, sprinting at the Fair Grounds.  And he was, get this, a DOZEN lengths clear of the show runner.  He just needed to get the distance, but as a son of Gr 1 winner Carpe Diem I wasn't concerned.  Swooped up on the far turn and drew off impressively for my sixth winning ticket of the afternoon.

Second at Gulfstream with a horse who I've seen multiple times.  He lost twice for me as a maiden, then scored when I went against him.  Went against him twice at the Championship Meet, he won both times.  Took him today....of course he lost.  Now it was time for the two featured races of the afternoon.  First up was the non-conditioned allowance feature at Gulfstream going six furlongs.  Like last week, yesterday when driving home from Coral Springs and listening to Sports Talk Radio they had the guy who's had a lot of success with longshots lately.  He explained the loss last week, which I had bought into (had not bet him to win).  He then gave out the pick for this week and it was in this race.  As soon as I scanned the past performances I thought "he's on to something here."  Princess Causeway was listed at 8/1 in the program.  She was a dead closer with a lot of back class.  There was a lot, A LOT of speed signed on which should set her up.  She had jockey Chris Landeros who I wrote about alot as he went 107 races in a row without winning.  And I'd just said something to Kim on Wednesday that he had started the meet 0-for-5.  BUT he brought home a $55 winner on Thursday for his second win of the meet from ten mounts.  This just looked ideal.  AND it was the guy on the radio's pick.  You have to watch the video replay in the highlights below because I cannot describe just how, HOW FAR back she was as they turned for home.  I mean she doesn't even appear on the screen in the back, still on the turn when the field has straightened for home.  But she was absolutely FLYING from the back and at the furlong pole it was just a matter of if she'd get there in time because they had gone way too fast early.  At the sixteenth pole I still had my doubts but, well watch the video, she found a whole other gear and accelerated to the wire.

It wasn't 8/1 but it paid $13.40 and I had doubled the bet to cash for nearly $70.  WHAT a day.  And we haven't even got to the BEST of the Day yet.  Originally multiple graded stakes winner Tom's d'Etat was scheduled to run on April 11th at Keeneland in the Grade 3 Ben Ali going a mile and a sixteenth.  But with Keeneland closed for the virus he was re-routed here to contest the Oaklawn Mile, on the same target date.  He was the class of the field and had been targeting a return on this date.  In the program there were 162 running lines with eleven triple digit figures.  SEVEN of the eleven belonged to him and he'd run 100 or better in his last six starts.  True, off the shelf today, but his pp's showed him winning off the shelf before.  As the field approached the far turn announcer Vic Stauffer called out he was mid-pack and "needs to start running right now."  It was like he heard him because immediately he began picking off runners.  Swung six wide into the lane with all the momentum and blew by the Bob Baffert newly turned 4yo Improbable to win going away.

The "prime time" play got me close to $40 as I closed out the winning for the day.  Ran second in the Oaklawn Stakes at 5/1 - a 9f test for three-year-olds - and I think I would have won as I was flying from the back, but at the furlong pole my colt made a sharp left hand turn and shifted about four paths inward instead of running straight.  Oh well, who can argue about an 8-for-19 day?  Better than 40% and a HUGE profit on the afternoon.

Sunday April 12
I was excited for today, not because of the big Saturday (if anything I was wary that perhaps the numbers would even out today), but because my BET of the Day was an 8/1 longshot and I really thought I was going to make some money today, even if I only had one other winner.  Well that's the way it played out as I had one win through the first four bets.  That came in the fifth, a claiming turf sprint with Blue Magic.  Of the combined 121 figures on the page only two would be competitive with her last three numbers and she was a multiple winner at the distance.  She sat mid-pack behind the speed then shifted out into the clear and made her run to nail the favorite late.  What surprised me is that the favorite was my second choice, but I never would have bet him and he got pounded at the windows enabling Blue Magic to float up to $6.60 for the payoff - I cashed for over $30.

Missed on the next then a pass race.  Now it was time for the BIG BET.  Here's my analysis.....

As soon as the betting opened I was disappointed.  He was the 2/1 favorite on the first flash.  Really?  Well maybe, I thought, that's just a big bet with the pools being small.  So I checked the Will Pays for all the multi-race bets.  Nope, he's the clear favorite in every pool.  So my "good thing" wasn't such a secret.  And while I can't say with ANY degree of certainty I WILL say that shortly after the race I saw I had a new follower on Twitter where I post the links to my picks.....

MAYBE, they pounded him down?  Regardless, he ran exactly as I anticipated.  Was away sharply, opened up and was in hand to the top of the stretch when Tyler G asked for run and he was a decisive winner.  The 8/5 final odds and $5.20 payoff was nice as I cashed for over $50 but considering I was thinking we might get 6/1 or better and I'd be collecting for $150 or more, it was a let down. 

Missed on the last three to close out the day.  But for the week....

It was an excellent week, and now I have had TWO excellent weeks to start off the spring/summer meet.

Social Distancing
On a side-note, despite the current global pandemic which envelops the entire planet keeping everyone inside I was able to have quite a "social butterfly" week, virtually.  It began on Tuesday when I awoke to a Facebook message on my phone.  I've been a big fan and follower of CBS4 morning anchor Lauren Pastrana for several years.  She began as a beat reporter and has worked her way up the ladder to the point that she is the lead anchor in the morning.  One thing I've always liked about her is that she puts herself out there on social media and often asks questions or encourages interaction.  If you follow my journals you know I've highlighted several exchanges we've had.  But this one was different.  There was a feature article online about her returning to work from maternity leave during the current crisis.  I messaged her on FB and she responded to me shortly before they went on the air at 4:30 am:

I was touched and impressed that she personalized the message by using my first name rather just a general thanks for the comment.  She's a great gal and I trust what ever she says, and enjoy watching her every morning.  Later that day I heard back via text message from one of my most favorite students of all time, Kimmy Westmoreland whom I had met for dinner on my last visit to Gulfstream back in early March.  I'd texted to see how she was doing and when she got back to me I was excited that she wanted to have a "virtual get together."  Will look forward to that experience and see what's up with her and her job at Royal Caribbean.

On Thursday I was watching the races and a video came on of Gulfstream analysis Acacia Courtney (who also was Miss Connecticut a year ago) and with the "Stay At Home" orders, she was providing her commentary and analysis from home.  I noticed on her sofa that her throw pillows were made from saddle cloths of race horses.  I googled them but couldn't find anything.  So I thought, "Hey, I'll just ask Acacia!"  So I sent her a twitter message and withing two minutes she answered me back.  I just think that is so cool that it's possible to interact with people via social media like that.

Later that day I "chatted" with another of my favorite former students, Jennifer Schneider who I most remember her for when she graduated from HS she left home and enrolled at the University of Colorado without knowing anyone there.  She was homesick her first semester so on the way out to visit my oldest son Jeff and his family that fall I had a layover in Denver and drove to have lunch with her.  Her parents were very grateful and Jen not only stayed and graduated but lives out there.  She returns to So Fla each year and we always hook up, as we did about two months ago.  Good to "see" her as well online.

No one cuter than my own wife Kimberly who I enjoyed a "dinner out" and a wine weekend this weekend, but it's also a bit of an ego boost to know I have several attractive friends in the social media world :)