Week 2: April 9 - 12
The second week of the Spring/Summer racing season at Gulfstream was another really interesting, and profitable one. And like all racing days and weeks, full of great stories! Let's get right to it.
Thursday April 9
The opener for Week 2 required you to make some decisions....the most likely winner, I thought, had conflicting evidence as to supporting him or not AND he was nearly certain to be a short price. So did you back him any way, did you look elsewhere, or did you simply watch? Magical Mike was sent out by the red-hot Saffie Joseph barn, winning at 44% overall and was dropping from MSW into this $16K spot today. He was taking blinkers off, a 26% winning move and jockey Victor LeBron had won with five of ten mounts for the barn. All good. BUT, ironically the most powerful class move in racing (MSW to MC) had produced an 0-for-11 result for Joseph. What? Just an anomaly or a reason to look elsewhere. For me I thought it was the former and I went with him. The only one who appeared to be a legitimate threat had already dropped to this level and didn't improve. LeBron gave the colt a great ride, saving ground all the way through the far turn then tipping into the clear as heads turned for home and powering home.
The only surprise was that somehow his price floated up in the late stages of betting to better than 2/1 and it allowed my minimum play to return more than $15. A great way to start the week. Lost my next pick to scratch, then in the third I had the 7/5 favorite who came rallying late in another maiden claimer on the turf, too late, 2nd. In the third - another MC on the turf - I got the perfect trip at 7/1 when third into the lane but had no punch, fading to eighth behind a 25/1 winner. Passed the sixth. In the seventh the first thing that caught my eye was the entry of Dominate Themoment who had been a BIG winner for me at 8/1 last time out. That day the field was made up on runners who'd only won their maiden and all the others had broken theirs for $25 or less while he'd broken his for $50K but got DQ'd then came right back to beat $50K rivals again. He was much the best that day. I typically don't like to bet 3yo claiming events, and even less a sophomore who just won. But it was virtually the same field and the other likely winner was a Mike Maker horse he'd beaten soundly last time out. The two of them hooked up through the stretch and it was close, but I got the win again. Cashed for over $25.
In the 8th I went for the gusto with a price play on the lead but went to fast (:22 and :45 going a mile on the turf) and paid for it fading to seventh. Third at 2/1 in the 9th and was completely outrun in the finale at 2/1. So two wins, but a minimal loss and an entertaining day.
Friday April 10
It was a week ago today that I had my BIG day with the Pick 3. I tried to look for opportunities there weren't any. In retrospect I have mixed feelings about playing the early daily double. The reason I played the early multi-race bet - and to be fair it was a $1 play for a whopping $3 - was because I didn't have a pick in either race. Since I was going to be watching I thought it was a "reasonable play" to provide some interest and I had a more-than-fair chance to win. On the other side, easy to say in retrospect, I didn't have any one in either bet I felt confident in so why play a multi-race wager? Maybe if I'd had a bet in one of the two. I won the opening leg, not with the favorite, then had the odds-on choice in the second but he ran fourth. You win some, you lose some I guess. My pick in the third was on the turf but again I didn't like any of the main body runners so my choice was the Main Track Only. Stayed on the turf so I lost the play. The fourth then provided the first wagering opportunity of the day. This was a high end $50K maiden claimer and Bird Map had made two starts as a juvenile and earned identical Beyers in those Kentucky tries (at two different tracks) off for a short break she returned in her 3yo debut and was a rallying 4th in another MSW, here with the winner coming right back to win. Even a repeat of that effort made the logical favorite hard to beat and any improved forward movement - on the drop for a first time tag - with Luis Saez up for trainer Norm Casse, and she'd be a daylight winner. She was off slowly and spotted the field at least five lengths, but she proved best by wearing down the 2nd choice (at 7/2) through the stretch.
I thought the 8/5 price was more than generous and with my triple event I collected nearly $40 with my first win bet and score of the day. Ran 4th as the 9/5 choice in the next, with a minimum bet. Then I thought I had a price play when I agreed with the DRF's Marty McGee that there was a ton of speed in the sixth and Killa Dee looked to run them all down late - AND he was 10/1 in the program. Well, as is often the case the way the race looked on paper is not how it played out. First, 'Bee was pounded at the windows down to 3/1 and second, jockey Paco Lopez broke sharply and took it to the field. At first I just shook my head, but as they turned for home and was on a clear lead I was thinking I had made a "smart bet." But in the final 50 yards two rivals got their heads in front. Close, no cigar. Missed with a minimum play in the seventh before cashing my second bet of the day. The eighth was an entry level allowance for 3yo and it had the look of a "Keeneland race" where they all looked to have some talent. My top choice was Shug McGaughey's Finding Fame. It's widely known (in handicapping circles) that this Hall of Fame trainer rarely has them ready to roll first time out, much less WIN first time out. And in watching the replay of her decisive score you COULD make the case that she'd benefited from a quick pace flow with a multiple front runners knocking each other out of contention. But for me, the way she blew by, coupled with the fact it was a McGaughey firster told me that she might be something special. She was stretching out to a one-turn mile today but as a daughter of champion Honor Code the distance didn't look to be a problem for the $425K sales grad. She tracked the leaders between horses - difficult for a lightly raced runner to do - made a bid, but was repelled. Well, that's that I thought, but then she came on again and edged clear to score at a nice 2/1 price.
Cashed for nearly $35 and I was very confident of getting a third win in the finale. R Man Joe had led to the final jump in a stakes race last time out - AS A MAIDEN - and now dropped back into the maiden ranks today. He was outrun to the front - probably due to his wide draw in post eleven. But I anticipated this and thought it would lead to a very comfortable trip. It did, he took over and looked clear until caught in the shadow of the wire. Had to be content with a profitable day to close out the week and heading into Saturday's races.
Saturday....what a day for payoffs! AND full of stories, get another drink and settle in for these tales that are ALL GOOD in the end :) The first sequence of stories are all about losses I suffered, but at the end of the day I could tell them with a smile on my face. And just to frame the day's events, flash back to last weekend. Coming off of a big Friday I cashed one and one only ticket from the combined Gulfstream & Oaklawn cards as a parade of longshots came in. So the opener at Gulfstream saw me taking what looked to be a longshot in Bolt who drew the rail in a turf sprint under Emisael Jaramillo and was listed at 12/1 in the program. Immediately bet to favoritism with the first flash of the board he left the gate as the 2/1 favorite. Well, "left the gate" isn't accurate as he was away slowly, never made the lead and was steadied not once but twice before finishing a well beaten 11th. But the winner was a 70/1 longshot, with the 2nd through 4th place finishers going off at odds of 22/1, 10/1 and 11/1. That triggered a $1 exacta worth $1300, a $0.50 trifecta worth over $9000, and a superfecta that paid $52,500 FOR A DIME. YOWZA. But we were far from done. In the second I had a Saffie Joseph drop down who was everyone's single and left the gate at 1/5 - the most predictable winner on the card. Nope, too far back and just missed with his late rally when 2nd. The winner - 34/1. The superfecta with a 1/5 in second (over 17/1 and 60/1) was $300 for a dime and the $2 Daily Double paid $1500. In the third I had the 9/5 favorite, who tracked the longshot leader, cruised up on the turn ready to roll by without being asked, but couldn't get by. The winner was 36/1 setting off another set of big balloon payments. Finally in the 4th I was able to cash. And as I told Kim, I KNEW I'd win the next two bets on the sheet. Why? Because I'd also lost the opener at Oaklawn to an $11 winner and ALL four of my bets had been added money bets. The next two plays were both minimum bets. Sure enough, Enzoexpress dueled inside, was headed turning for home but then re-rallied to draw off and win at a nice $7.40 price. Right after that at Oaklawn Miss Imperial stalked the leaders, blew by at the top of the stretch and widened through the lane to score as the 8/5 favorite.
Still, even though they were not big payouts and I only had the minimum I wasn't too far behind on the ledger and was suddenly 2-for-6...my typical 33%. In the fifth at Gulfstream I went with a Chad Brown first time starter on the turf who ran a disappointing 6th at 4/1. The winner was the 8/5 favorite, who I did not like at all. So, with the first five races in the books at Hallandale we'd had winners that paid $148.40, $70.00, $75.20, $7.40, and $5.40. If you had spent fifty cents on the Pick 5, and had it - which someone did - you cashed....for FIFTY CENTS mind you.....for $52,000! OH MY!
Next up was the third from Oaklawn, a Maiden Special sprint. Skol Factor figured to be the obvious favorite and would be REALLY hard to look past. In his debut he'd run second, beaten a mere neck behind a talented Steve Asmussen colt in a smoking quick time of 1:09 and change. The Beyer he earned of 83 was daylight clear of the par for the course and was the ONLY figure on the page that was better than the par number. Right to the front and drew off looking like the real deal in another wickedly fast final time of 1:09.3. Tripled the bet so I scored for nearly $30 as somehow he went off at almost even money, wow.
Moving on to the 6th story and despite the way the day turned out I'm still kicking myself. The sixth was a maiden special event for three-year-olds and those with experience did little for me. I liked, again, a Chad Brown first time starter. And as I remarked in my analysis, unlike the last race pick this one - Mister Winston - showed several bullet works and was listed at a nice 9/2 price. After I'd made my pick I looked at what the DRF's Mike Welsch and Gulfstream's Ron Nicoletti had said. Welsch put the Also Eligible runner, Ima Pharoah, a second time starter from Todd Pletcher's barn on top - even as an AE. And Nicoletti made his pick from the body of the race, but then he noted....in bold print, underlined and italicized that if Ima Pharoah got in he became the top pick. WOW, how good must this colt be. And so I added that if he got in I'd want to look at the payoffs. So in my initial thinking I was NOT making him an automatic move to the top of the betting chart play. Sure enough there were two scratches and he got in. I looked at the payoffs for doubles, pick 3 and pick 4 plays and Ima Pharoah was the overwhelming choice. I hesitated and then switched my bet. As they turned for home he was dueling between runners as four were across the track. He really fought gamely and kept his head in front all the way to the final jumps before a stalker circled the four of them and got up in the shadow of the wire.....yes it was. Yes, Mister Winston. And not at 9/2 but at a big 9/1 price. Oh I was sick. With the $10 bet I'd have cashed for over $100. Luckily I'd earmarked this sequence of events as my lone Pick 3 of the day. I went back to tell Kim that "I'd better hit the Pick 3 or I'm going to be REALLY upset!"
The seventh was a claiming event on the turf. In late February Derby Champagne ran in a mile and a sixteenth event against Soglio who was odds-on that day. And deservedly so. He'd run in six stakes in his previous seven starts, four of them graded and he would have been odds-on in here. But what caught my attention was that despite being 12/1 that day Derby Champagne was second to Soglio, beaten a mere neck. A run back to that effort or to four of his past five Beyers would require a career best to defeat him. That made him the single play in the Pick 3 but was only willing to double the investment because the last time he'd seen the winner's circle was 2018. He was tracking the leaders into the stretch, shifted into the clear and was rolling late. Tyler Gaffalione cut it close but was up in time and actually was confidently handling him through the final 100 yards.
Now, all we needed to do was get home the final leg and I had a very strong favorite in the eighth, a maiden special event going a one-turn mile. Chad Brown's Per Capita had run twice and earned identical Beyer figures of 81. That's significant on two fronts....first, that's a pole better than par for this level of racing (74) and second, both figures were better than a pole plus than any number earned by the rest of the field, all of which were below par. The ONLY concern was that he'd not been out for several months, but that was mitigated by Brown's 28% win number with layoff runners. Still, as I noted in my analysis, were this still the Championship Meet I'd feel more conflicted because Todd Pletcher was sending out a first time starter who had drawn over $1.2 Million at the sales auction and was working strongly. I made the Brown runner the pick but in the Pick-3 I backed myself up with the Pletcher runner. The Pletcher colt, Colonel Liam, went right to the front and led into the lane. Per Capta tracked him, swung outside to engage him and edged clear about the sixteenth pole. But Colonel Liam fought back and just as he was about to draw even along the rail Per Capita shifted inward and Luis Saez had to steady. Per Capita drew off to win, but you knew the INQUIRY sign was coming up. I quickly went to get Kim and had her watch the replay with me for a couple of very unique reasons. First, I've seen far worse let go by the stewards, but it seemed like he'd come down. But here's the thing....if Per Capita remained the winner and I had the WIN ticket and the Pick 3, I'd collect about half of what I'd get if he was DQ'd. They looked at it for a long time and finally, down he came. I graciously forfeited my winning ticket to DOUBLE my Pick 3 amount which was nearly $300! WHOOOO HOOOOO.
Only at the races....and how clever am I.....I ran second when I SWITCHED my bet and HAD the $21 winner; won; and then won but was DQ'd and STILL hit the Pick 3. GO ME! Had a short break to celebrate and drink my wine (see above). And then my next selection was in a MSW going a mile and a sixteenth at Oaklawn for three-year-olds. Earner had post a big 86 Beyer in his debut, sprinting at the Fair Grounds. And he was, get this, a DOZEN lengths clear of the show runner. He just needed to get the distance, but as a son of Gr 1 winner Carpe Diem I wasn't concerned. Swooped up on the far turn and drew off impressively for my sixth winning ticket of the afternoon.
Second at Gulfstream with a horse who I've seen multiple times. He lost twice for me as a maiden, then scored when I went against him. Went against him twice at the Championship Meet, he won both times. Took him today....of course he lost. Now it was time for the two featured races of the afternoon. First up was the non-conditioned allowance feature at Gulfstream going six furlongs. Like last week, yesterday when driving home from Coral Springs and listening to Sports Talk Radio they had the guy who's had a lot of success with longshots lately. He explained the loss last week, which I had bought into (had not bet him to win). He then gave out the pick for this week and it was in this race. As soon as I scanned the past performances I thought "he's on to something here." Princess Causeway was listed at 8/1 in the program. She was a dead closer with a lot of back class. There was a lot, A LOT of speed signed on which should set her up. She had jockey Chris Landeros who I wrote about alot as he went 107 races in a row without winning. And I'd just said something to Kim on Wednesday that he had started the meet 0-for-5. BUT he brought home a $55 winner on Thursday for his second win of the meet from ten mounts. This just looked ideal. AND it was the guy on the radio's pick. You have to watch the video replay in the highlights below because I cannot describe just how, HOW FAR back she was as they turned for home. I mean she doesn't even appear on the screen in the back, still on the turn when the field has straightened for home. But she was absolutely FLYING from the back and at the furlong pole it was just a matter of if she'd get there in time because they had gone way too fast early. At the sixteenth pole I still had my doubts but, well watch the video, she found a whole other gear and accelerated to the wire.
It wasn't 8/1 but it paid $13.40 and I had doubled the bet to cash for nearly $70. WHAT a day. And we haven't even got to the BEST of the Day yet. Originally multiple graded stakes winner Tom's d'Etat was scheduled to run on April 11th at Keeneland in the Grade 3 Ben Ali going a mile and a sixteenth. But with Keeneland closed for the virus he was re-routed here to contest the Oaklawn Mile, on the same target date. He was the class of the field and had been targeting a return on this date. In the program there were 162 running lines with eleven triple digit figures. SEVEN of the eleven belonged to him and he'd run 100 or better in his last six starts. True, off the shelf today, but his pp's showed him winning off the shelf before. As the field approached the far turn announcer Vic Stauffer called out he was mid-pack and "needs to start running right now." It was like he heard him because immediately he began picking off runners. Swung six wide into the lane with all the momentum and blew by the Bob Baffert newly turned 4yo Improbable to win going away.
The "prime time" play got me close to $40 as I closed out the winning for the day. Ran second in the Oaklawn Stakes at 5/1 - a 9f test for three-year-olds - and I think I would have won as I was flying from the back, but at the furlong pole my colt made a sharp left hand turn and shifted about four paths inward instead of running straight. Oh well, who can argue about an 8-for-19 day? Better than 40% and a HUGE profit on the afternoon.
Sunday April 12
I was excited for today, not because of the big Saturday (if anything I was wary that perhaps the numbers would even out today), but because my BET of the Day was an 8/1 longshot and I really thought I was going to make some money today, even if I only had one other winner. Well that's the way it played out as I had one win through the first four bets. That came in the fifth, a claiming turf sprint with Blue Magic. Of the combined 121 figures on the page only two would be competitive with her last three numbers and she was a multiple winner at the distance. She sat mid-pack behind the speed then shifted out into the clear and made her run to nail the favorite late. What surprised me is that the favorite was my second choice, but I never would have bet him and he got pounded at the windows enabling Blue Magic to float up to $6.60 for the payoff - I cashed for over $30.
Missed on the next then a pass race. Now it was time for the BIG BET. Here's my analysis.....
As soon as the betting opened I was disappointed. He was the 2/1 favorite on the first flash. Really? Well maybe, I thought, that's just a big bet with the pools being small. So I checked the Will Pays for all the multi-race bets. Nope, he's the clear favorite in every pool. So my "good thing" wasn't such a secret. And while I can't say with ANY degree of certainty I WILL say that shortly after the race I saw I had a new follower on Twitter where I post the links to my picks.....
MAYBE, they pounded him down? Regardless, he ran exactly as I anticipated. Was away sharply, opened up and was in hand to the top of the stretch when Tyler G asked for run and he was a decisive winner. The 8/5 final odds and $5.20 payoff was nice as I cashed for over $50 but considering I was thinking we might get 6/1 or better and I'd be collecting for $150 or more, it was a let down.
Missed on the last three to close out the day. But for the week....
It was an excellent week, and now I have had TWO excellent weeks to start off the spring/summer meet.
Social Distancing
On a side-note, despite the current global pandemic which envelops the entire planet keeping everyone inside I was able to have quite a "social butterfly" week, virtually. It began on Tuesday when I awoke to a Facebook message on my phone. I've been a big fan and follower of CBS4 morning anchor Lauren Pastrana for several years. She began as a beat reporter and has worked her way up the ladder to the point that she is the lead anchor in the morning. One thing I've always liked about her is that she puts herself out there on social media and often asks questions or encourages interaction. If you follow my journals you know I've highlighted several exchanges we've had. But this one was different. There was a feature article online about her returning to work from maternity leave during the current crisis. I messaged her on FB and she responded to me shortly before they went on the air at 4:30 am:
I was touched and impressed that she personalized the message by using my first name rather just a general thanks for the comment. She's a great gal and I trust what ever she says, and enjoy watching her every morning. Later that day I heard back via text message from one of my most favorite students of all time, Kimmy Westmoreland whom I had met for dinner on my last visit to Gulfstream back in early March. I'd texted to see how she was doing and when she got back to me I was excited that she wanted to have a "virtual get together." Will look forward to that experience and see what's up with her and her job at Royal Caribbean.
On Thursday I was watching the races and a video came on of Gulfstream analysis Acacia Courtney (who also was Miss Connecticut a year ago) and with the "Stay At Home" orders, she was providing her commentary and analysis from home. I noticed on her sofa that her throw pillows were made from saddle cloths of race horses. I googled them but couldn't find anything. So I thought, "Hey, I'll just ask Acacia!" So I sent her a twitter message and withing two minutes she answered me back. I just think that is so cool that it's possible to interact with people via social media like that.
Later that day I "chatted" with another of my favorite former students, Jennifer Schneider who I most remember her for when she graduated from HS she left home and enrolled at the University of Colorado without knowing anyone there. She was homesick her first semester so on the way out to visit my oldest son Jeff and his family that fall I had a layover in Denver and drove to have lunch with her. Her parents were very grateful and Jen not only stayed and graduated but lives out there. She returns to So Fla each year and we always hook up, as we did about two months ago. Good to "see" her as well online.
No one cuter than my own wife Kimberly who I enjoyed a "dinner out" and a wine weekend this weekend, but it's also a bit of an ego boost to know I have several attractive friends in the social media world :)
Thursday April 9
The opener for Week 2 required you to make some decisions....the most likely winner, I thought, had conflicting evidence as to supporting him or not AND he was nearly certain to be a short price. So did you back him any way, did you look elsewhere, or did you simply watch? Magical Mike was sent out by the red-hot Saffie Joseph barn, winning at 44% overall and was dropping from MSW into this $16K spot today. He was taking blinkers off, a 26% winning move and jockey Victor LeBron had won with five of ten mounts for the barn. All good. BUT, ironically the most powerful class move in racing (MSW to MC) had produced an 0-for-11 result for Joseph. What? Just an anomaly or a reason to look elsewhere. For me I thought it was the former and I went with him. The only one who appeared to be a legitimate threat had already dropped to this level and didn't improve. LeBron gave the colt a great ride, saving ground all the way through the far turn then tipping into the clear as heads turned for home and powering home.
The only surprise was that somehow his price floated up in the late stages of betting to better than 2/1 and it allowed my minimum play to return more than $15. A great way to start the week. Lost my next pick to scratch, then in the third I had the 7/5 favorite who came rallying late in another maiden claimer on the turf, too late, 2nd. In the third - another MC on the turf - I got the perfect trip at 7/1 when third into the lane but had no punch, fading to eighth behind a 25/1 winner. Passed the sixth. In the seventh the first thing that caught my eye was the entry of Dominate Themoment who had been a BIG winner for me at 8/1 last time out. That day the field was made up on runners who'd only won their maiden and all the others had broken theirs for $25 or less while he'd broken his for $50K but got DQ'd then came right back to beat $50K rivals again. He was much the best that day. I typically don't like to bet 3yo claiming events, and even less a sophomore who just won. But it was virtually the same field and the other likely winner was a Mike Maker horse he'd beaten soundly last time out. The two of them hooked up through the stretch and it was close, but I got the win again. Cashed for over $25.
In the 8th I went for the gusto with a price play on the lead but went to fast (:22 and :45 going a mile on the turf) and paid for it fading to seventh. Third at 2/1 in the 9th and was completely outrun in the finale at 2/1. So two wins, but a minimal loss and an entertaining day.
Friday April 10
It was a week ago today that I had my BIG day with the Pick 3. I tried to look for opportunities there weren't any. In retrospect I have mixed feelings about playing the early daily double. The reason I played the early multi-race bet - and to be fair it was a $1 play for a whopping $3 - was because I didn't have a pick in either race. Since I was going to be watching I thought it was a "reasonable play" to provide some interest and I had a more-than-fair chance to win. On the other side, easy to say in retrospect, I didn't have any one in either bet I felt confident in so why play a multi-race wager? Maybe if I'd had a bet in one of the two. I won the opening leg, not with the favorite, then had the odds-on choice in the second but he ran fourth. You win some, you lose some I guess. My pick in the third was on the turf but again I didn't like any of the main body runners so my choice was the Main Track Only. Stayed on the turf so I lost the play. The fourth then provided the first wagering opportunity of the day. This was a high end $50K maiden claimer and Bird Map had made two starts as a juvenile and earned identical Beyers in those Kentucky tries (at two different tracks) off for a short break she returned in her 3yo debut and was a rallying 4th in another MSW, here with the winner coming right back to win. Even a repeat of that effort made the logical favorite hard to beat and any improved forward movement - on the drop for a first time tag - with Luis Saez up for trainer Norm Casse, and she'd be a daylight winner. She was off slowly and spotted the field at least five lengths, but she proved best by wearing down the 2nd choice (at 7/2) through the stretch.
I thought the 8/5 price was more than generous and with my triple event I collected nearly $40 with my first win bet and score of the day. Ran 4th as the 9/5 choice in the next, with a minimum bet. Then I thought I had a price play when I agreed with the DRF's Marty McGee that there was a ton of speed in the sixth and Killa Dee looked to run them all down late - AND he was 10/1 in the program. Well, as is often the case the way the race looked on paper is not how it played out. First, 'Bee was pounded at the windows down to 3/1 and second, jockey Paco Lopez broke sharply and took it to the field. At first I just shook my head, but as they turned for home and was on a clear lead I was thinking I had made a "smart bet." But in the final 50 yards two rivals got their heads in front. Close, no cigar. Missed with a minimum play in the seventh before cashing my second bet of the day. The eighth was an entry level allowance for 3yo and it had the look of a "Keeneland race" where they all looked to have some talent. My top choice was Shug McGaughey's Finding Fame. It's widely known (in handicapping circles) that this Hall of Fame trainer rarely has them ready to roll first time out, much less WIN first time out. And in watching the replay of her decisive score you COULD make the case that she'd benefited from a quick pace flow with a multiple front runners knocking each other out of contention. But for me, the way she blew by, coupled with the fact it was a McGaughey firster told me that she might be something special. She was stretching out to a one-turn mile today but as a daughter of champion Honor Code the distance didn't look to be a problem for the $425K sales grad. She tracked the leaders between horses - difficult for a lightly raced runner to do - made a bid, but was repelled. Well, that's that I thought, but then she came on again and edged clear to score at a nice 2/1 price.
Cashed for nearly $35 and I was very confident of getting a third win in the finale. R Man Joe had led to the final jump in a stakes race last time out - AS A MAIDEN - and now dropped back into the maiden ranks today. He was outrun to the front - probably due to his wide draw in post eleven. But I anticipated this and thought it would lead to a very comfortable trip. It did, he took over and looked clear until caught in the shadow of the wire. Had to be content with a profitable day to close out the week and heading into Saturday's races.
Saturday April 11: Oaklawn Mile Day
Saturday....what a day for payoffs! AND full of stories, get another drink and settle in for these tales that are ALL GOOD in the end :) The first sequence of stories are all about losses I suffered, but at the end of the day I could tell them with a smile on my face. And just to frame the day's events, flash back to last weekend. Coming off of a big Friday I cashed one and one only ticket from the combined Gulfstream & Oaklawn cards as a parade of longshots came in. So the opener at Gulfstream saw me taking what looked to be a longshot in Bolt who drew the rail in a turf sprint under Emisael Jaramillo and was listed at 12/1 in the program. Immediately bet to favoritism with the first flash of the board he left the gate as the 2/1 favorite. Well, "left the gate" isn't accurate as he was away slowly, never made the lead and was steadied not once but twice before finishing a well beaten 11th. But the winner was a 70/1 longshot, with the 2nd through 4th place finishers going off at odds of 22/1, 10/1 and 11/1. That triggered a $1 exacta worth $1300, a $0.50 trifecta worth over $9000, and a superfecta that paid $52,500 FOR A DIME. YOWZA. But we were far from done. In the second I had a Saffie Joseph drop down who was everyone's single and left the gate at 1/5 - the most predictable winner on the card. Nope, too far back and just missed with his late rally when 2nd. The winner - 34/1. The superfecta with a 1/5 in second (over 17/1 and 60/1) was $300 for a dime and the $2 Daily Double paid $1500. In the third I had the 9/5 favorite, who tracked the longshot leader, cruised up on the turn ready to roll by without being asked, but couldn't get by. The winner was 36/1 setting off another set of big balloon payments. Finally in the 4th I was able to cash. And as I told Kim, I KNEW I'd win the next two bets on the sheet. Why? Because I'd also lost the opener at Oaklawn to an $11 winner and ALL four of my bets had been added money bets. The next two plays were both minimum bets. Sure enough, Enzoexpress dueled inside, was headed turning for home but then re-rallied to draw off and win at a nice $7.40 price. Right after that at Oaklawn Miss Imperial stalked the leaders, blew by at the top of the stretch and widened through the lane to score as the 8/5 favorite.
Next up was the third from Oaklawn, a Maiden Special sprint. Skol Factor figured to be the obvious favorite and would be REALLY hard to look past. In his debut he'd run second, beaten a mere neck behind a talented Steve Asmussen colt in a smoking quick time of 1:09 and change. The Beyer he earned of 83 was daylight clear of the par for the course and was the ONLY figure on the page that was better than the par number. Right to the front and drew off looking like the real deal in another wickedly fast final time of 1:09.3. Tripled the bet so I scored for nearly $30 as somehow he went off at almost even money, wow.
Moving on to the 6th story and despite the way the day turned out I'm still kicking myself. The sixth was a maiden special event for three-year-olds and those with experience did little for me. I liked, again, a Chad Brown first time starter. And as I remarked in my analysis, unlike the last race pick this one - Mister Winston - showed several bullet works and was listed at a nice 9/2 price. After I'd made my pick I looked at what the DRF's Mike Welsch and Gulfstream's Ron Nicoletti had said. Welsch put the Also Eligible runner, Ima Pharoah, a second time starter from Todd Pletcher's barn on top - even as an AE. And Nicoletti made his pick from the body of the race, but then he noted....in bold print, underlined and italicized that if Ima Pharoah got in he became the top pick. WOW, how good must this colt be. And so I added that if he got in I'd want to look at the payoffs. So in my initial thinking I was NOT making him an automatic move to the top of the betting chart play. Sure enough there were two scratches and he got in. I looked at the payoffs for doubles, pick 3 and pick 4 plays and Ima Pharoah was the overwhelming choice. I hesitated and then switched my bet. As they turned for home he was dueling between runners as four were across the track. He really fought gamely and kept his head in front all the way to the final jumps before a stalker circled the four of them and got up in the shadow of the wire.....yes it was. Yes, Mister Winston. And not at 9/2 but at a big 9/1 price. Oh I was sick. With the $10 bet I'd have cashed for over $100. Luckily I'd earmarked this sequence of events as my lone Pick 3 of the day. I went back to tell Kim that "I'd better hit the Pick 3 or I'm going to be REALLY upset!"
Now, all we needed to do was get home the final leg and I had a very strong favorite in the eighth, a maiden special event going a one-turn mile. Chad Brown's Per Capita had run twice and earned identical Beyer figures of 81. That's significant on two fronts....first, that's a pole better than par for this level of racing (74) and second, both figures were better than a pole plus than any number earned by the rest of the field, all of which were below par. The ONLY concern was that he'd not been out for several months, but that was mitigated by Brown's 28% win number with layoff runners. Still, as I noted in my analysis, were this still the Championship Meet I'd feel more conflicted because Todd Pletcher was sending out a first time starter who had drawn over $1.2 Million at the sales auction and was working strongly. I made the Brown runner the pick but in the Pick-3 I backed myself up with the Pletcher runner. The Pletcher colt, Colonel Liam, went right to the front and led into the lane. Per Capta tracked him, swung outside to engage him and edged clear about the sixteenth pole. But Colonel Liam fought back and just as he was about to draw even along the rail Per Capita shifted inward and Luis Saez had to steady. Per Capita drew off to win, but you knew the INQUIRY sign was coming up. I quickly went to get Kim and had her watch the replay with me for a couple of very unique reasons. First, I've seen far worse let go by the stewards, but it seemed like he'd come down. But here's the thing....if Per Capita remained the winner and I had the WIN ticket and the Pick 3, I'd collect about half of what I'd get if he was DQ'd. They looked at it for a long time and finally, down he came. I graciously forfeited my winning ticket to DOUBLE my Pick 3 amount which was nearly $300! WHOOOO HOOOOO.
Second at Gulfstream with a horse who I've seen multiple times. He lost twice for me as a maiden, then scored when I went against him. Went against him twice at the Championship Meet, he won both times. Took him today....of course he lost. Now it was time for the two featured races of the afternoon. First up was the non-conditioned allowance feature at Gulfstream going six furlongs. Like last week, yesterday when driving home from Coral Springs and listening to Sports Talk Radio they had the guy who's had a lot of success with longshots lately. He explained the loss last week, which I had bought into (had not bet him to win). He then gave out the pick for this week and it was in this race. As soon as I scanned the past performances I thought "he's on to something here." Princess Causeway was listed at 8/1 in the program. She was a dead closer with a lot of back class. There was a lot, A LOT of speed signed on which should set her up. She had jockey Chris Landeros who I wrote about alot as he went 107 races in a row without winning. And I'd just said something to Kim on Wednesday that he had started the meet 0-for-5. BUT he brought home a $55 winner on Thursday for his second win of the meet from ten mounts. This just looked ideal. AND it was the guy on the radio's pick. You have to watch the video replay in the highlights below because I cannot describe just how, HOW FAR back she was as they turned for home. I mean she doesn't even appear on the screen in the back, still on the turn when the field has straightened for home. But she was absolutely FLYING from the back and at the furlong pole it was just a matter of if she'd get there in time because they had gone way too fast early. At the sixteenth pole I still had my doubts but, well watch the video, she found a whole other gear and accelerated to the wire.
It wasn't 8/1 but it paid $13.40 and I had doubled the bet to cash for nearly $70. WHAT a day. And we haven't even got to the BEST of the Day yet. Originally multiple graded stakes winner Tom's d'Etat was scheduled to run on April 11th at Keeneland in the Grade 3 Ben Ali going a mile and a sixteenth. But with Keeneland closed for the virus he was re-routed here to contest the Oaklawn Mile, on the same target date. He was the class of the field and had been targeting a return on this date. In the program there were 162 running lines with eleven triple digit figures. SEVEN of the eleven belonged to him and he'd run 100 or better in his last six starts. True, off the shelf today, but his pp's showed him winning off the shelf before. As the field approached the far turn announcer Vic Stauffer called out he was mid-pack and "needs to start running right now." It was like he heard him because immediately he began picking off runners. Swung six wide into the lane with all the momentum and blew by the Bob Baffert newly turned 4yo Improbable to win going away.
The "prime time" play got me close to $40 as I closed out the winning for the day. Ran second in the Oaklawn Stakes at 5/1 - a 9f test for three-year-olds - and I think I would have won as I was flying from the back, but at the furlong pole my colt made a sharp left hand turn and shifted about four paths inward instead of running straight. Oh well, who can argue about an 8-for-19 day? Better than 40% and a HUGE profit on the afternoon.
Sunday April 12
I was excited for today, not because of the big Saturday (if anything I was wary that perhaps the numbers would even out today), but because my BET of the Day was an 8/1 longshot and I really thought I was going to make some money today, even if I only had one other winner. Well that's the way it played out as I had one win through the first four bets. That came in the fifth, a claiming turf sprint with Blue Magic. Of the combined 121 figures on the page only two would be competitive with her last three numbers and she was a multiple winner at the distance. She sat mid-pack behind the speed then shifted out into the clear and made her run to nail the favorite late. What surprised me is that the favorite was my second choice, but I never would have bet him and he got pounded at the windows enabling Blue Magic to float up to $6.60 for the payoff - I cashed for over $30.
Missed on the next then a pass race. Now it was time for the BIG BET. Here's my analysis.....
As soon as the betting opened I was disappointed. He was the 2/1 favorite on the first flash. Really? Well maybe, I thought, that's just a big bet with the pools being small. So I checked the Will Pays for all the multi-race bets. Nope, he's the clear favorite in every pool. So my "good thing" wasn't such a secret. And while I can't say with ANY degree of certainty I WILL say that shortly after the race I saw I had a new follower on Twitter where I post the links to my picks.....
MAYBE, they pounded him down? Regardless, he ran exactly as I anticipated. Was away sharply, opened up and was in hand to the top of the stretch when Tyler G asked for run and he was a decisive winner. The 8/5 final odds and $5.20 payoff was nice as I cashed for over $50 but considering I was thinking we might get 6/1 or better and I'd be collecting for $150 or more, it was a let down.
Missed on the last three to close out the day. But for the week....
It was an excellent week, and now I have had TWO excellent weeks to start off the spring/summer meet.
Social Distancing
On a side-note, despite the current global pandemic which envelops the entire planet keeping everyone inside I was able to have quite a "social butterfly" week, virtually. It began on Tuesday when I awoke to a Facebook message on my phone. I've been a big fan and follower of CBS4 morning anchor Lauren Pastrana for several years. She began as a beat reporter and has worked her way up the ladder to the point that she is the lead anchor in the morning. One thing I've always liked about her is that she puts herself out there on social media and often asks questions or encourages interaction. If you follow my journals you know I've highlighted several exchanges we've had. But this one was different. There was a feature article online about her returning to work from maternity leave during the current crisis. I messaged her on FB and she responded to me shortly before they went on the air at 4:30 am:
I was touched and impressed that she personalized the message by using my first name rather just a general thanks for the comment. She's a great gal and I trust what ever she says, and enjoy watching her every morning. Later that day I heard back via text message from one of my most favorite students of all time, Kimmy Westmoreland whom I had met for dinner on my last visit to Gulfstream back in early March. I'd texted to see how she was doing and when she got back to me I was excited that she wanted to have a "virtual get together." Will look forward to that experience and see what's up with her and her job at Royal Caribbean.
On Thursday I was watching the races and a video came on of Gulfstream analysis Acacia Courtney (who also was Miss Connecticut a year ago) and with the "Stay At Home" orders, she was providing her commentary and analysis from home. I noticed on her sofa that her throw pillows were made from saddle cloths of race horses. I googled them but couldn't find anything. So I thought, "Hey, I'll just ask Acacia!" So I sent her a twitter message and withing two minutes she answered me back. I just think that is so cool that it's possible to interact with people via social media like that.
Later that day I "chatted" with another of my favorite former students, Jennifer Schneider who I most remember her for when she graduated from HS she left home and enrolled at the University of Colorado without knowing anyone there. She was homesick her first semester so on the way out to visit my oldest son Jeff and his family that fall I had a layover in Denver and drove to have lunch with her. Her parents were very grateful and Jen not only stayed and graduated but lives out there. She returns to So Fla each year and we always hook up, as we did about two months ago. Good to "see" her as well online.
No one cuter than my own wife Kimberly who I enjoyed a "dinner out" and a wine weekend this weekend, but it's also a bit of an ego boost to know I have several attractive friends in the social media world :)
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