Truly the "story" of the week is that there really were NOT any stories. Something that is quite unusual in my world. Well, I guess that's not entirely accurate because the "leading stories" on the first two days of racing were about losses and on the "big day" of racing - Saturday - that I didn't fare so well (zigged when I should have zagged) which led to the final day which DID have a very interesting story. Here's how it all played out....don't blink, you may miss the first three days of this week's chronicle!
Thursday April 16
After having consecutive weeks where I cashed a large payout on a Pick-3 I was excited to get back to the races - virtually of course - but I was very, very cognizant of not forcing a bet where one didn't exist. I was excited for the week to kick off because both today and Friday had the first two juvenile races of the season. At this time of the year when the two-year-olds run at Keeneland it's virtually as simple as finding the Wesley Ward trainee. So I was curious to see if the Spring/Summer Meet here at Gulfstream - with no Keeneland racing due to the pandemic - was REALLY going to reflect the Keeneland spring meet. Sure enough on both days there was a highly regarded Ward 2yo in the field who figured to take some serious beating. Even before I began to actually handicap I KNEW that the "dilemma" would be EITHER you assume that his 2yo's will run like they do at Keeneland and you'd probably get a slightly better price here because you know many handicappers felt the way I did, or you looked for value and assumed that until Ward proved his 2yo could run here like they do at KEE that they'd be vulnerable. I leaned toward the former. And once I looked at the Form his starter just looked formidable. Well, ok, so NONE of the runners (obviously) had been out, but the works were sizzling, the draw was good, and he'd enlisted hot-riding Tyler Gaffalione. In the 2nd on Thursday was the first of the 2yo races. Lime left the gate as a prohibitive 1/5 favorite. Gunned right to the front and literally within five jumps was five lengths clear. As they hit the turn and Tyler G was sitting chilly I was thinking, "I KNEW I was right" and smiled. Then as they approached the top of the lane the second choice was still in the hunt. Gaffalione asked for Lime to finish the job and she didn't spurt away. Uh oh. Run down in the final strides. WOW. I told Kim minutes later that "we'll find out tomorrow about the Ward runners - was this an exception or would his 2yo not be the same here?" Ran third in the third race and that brought us to the fourth, a nw2L sprint. As I wrote, it was hard to have confidence in any of these, but there was one and one ONLY runner who'd never been in a two-lifetime event, Probably Grace. AND what appealed to me was this....She'd debuted with a win at Hawthorne in Chicago then shipped here and run a very close 2nd. BOTH those races came under the care of trainer Larry Rivelli. She was claimed out of that second start but ran poorly in both her next two. And, she was claimed out of each. But out of the last it was Rivelli who re-claimed here for $12.5K. Dropped her into this $6.25K - I assumed because he figured she'd win and he'd recoup most of the claim money. She went off at a lucrative 9/2 price but was a step slow out of the gate. Hustled into third then cruised up to challenge the 22/1 leader and drew off. Doubled the bet and cashed for nearly $60 which almost covered the six losing selections on the day.
Friday April 17
Missed in the opener and in the second, the two-year-olds were lining up and the Wes Ward favorite, Golden Pal looked even stronger than the filly did on Thursday. Went off at a "better" price of 1-2 and again Gaffalione shot to the front. COMPLETELY in control turning for home, and then again the second choice - from the same owners and trainer and jockey - blew by to beat him. OK, so I was wrong.....be careful with the Ward 2yo, not nearly as good in the Florida sunshine than they are in the spring time at Keeneland in Lexington. In the fourth I had a Saffie Joseph horse with Tyler G again. The 8/5 favorite stalked to the turn then pulled up. Then fifth at 7/5 and 2nd at 4/5 before closing the day in second - AGAIN - as the even money favorite. Not a day I'll remember down the line.
Saturday April 18: Apple Blossom Day
I was excited for the races today - not so much because of my picks, but the Grade 1 Apple Blossom has always been one of my favorite races of the year. And we've been fortunate to be in Hot Springs not once but twice for the big event. The day at Gulfstream saw me go 0-for again, but I had two Pick-3 races where I won both the first two legs with the "other" horse only to come up short in the final leg. At Oaklawn I won the third, a Maiden Special with Too Pretty with a minimum bet.....
In the fifth I liked a 3yo in this maiden claiming sprint who figured hard to get by, but she scratched. I looked at my analysis and I'd said that Skyvalue was a logical favorite and certainly the one to beat. So even with the way the day was going I doubled the bet. Wire to wire and I had my second winner of the afternoon in Hot Springs.
Scored with my "best of the day" at Oaklawn with Bob Baffert's Dessman who run in some big time events as a three-year-old last year out west. If he was half-way ready he'd win. He tracked the leaders in fourth to the far turn but wasn't "doing it on his own," and jockey Martin Garcia had to really get after him. But once he swung into the clear on the outside he found another gear and it became just a matter of by how much when he'd get to the front.
The day ended with two losses in the two featured events where I SHOULD have had a nice score in the first of them. In the Grade 3 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap Whitmore was going for his fourth win of this event. He LOVES Hot Springs and ALWAYS runs big here. He was a likely winner. But this year with all the other tracks being closed, the race had drawn a stellar field. And one of them was Bill Mott's Hidden Scroll. In my opinion the jury was still out on him. In his two wins he'd been sensational and as TVG analyst Scott Hazelton said prior to the race, he might just be in a class of his own going one turn, and we could be watching the launching of a superstar season. When he went off at 7/2 I was glad I'd taken him on the "promise" of how good he might be. Nope. Faded while the obvious choice, Whitmore blew by to win going away AND paid 3/1 on the board. WOW. Would have made the day. Then in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom it looked to be a hot pace to set up for a closer and I gave Street Band one more chance. The pace was wicked and she was closing. But only for third. So ended the day.
Sunday April 19: Mandatory Rainbow Pick-6 Payout Day
When I handicapped the card on Saturday I wasn't aware and/or paying any attention to the fact that today was going to be a mandatory payout. And honestly with the way the week had gone I was just hoping to win one race, maybe even two :) But by Sunday morning the racing headlines were all about how the the pool would soar for more than five or six million. So I sat down and went through my picks and compared them to what the four public handicappers had to say. Then I thought I'd put together a ticket with out considering the cost. What would my ticket look like if I really thought I had a chance to win? Before I tell that story, I had two outright winners. After running 4th in the second, third in the fourth and a dismal 8th in the fifth it was time for my "best" bet Bareeqa in a starter optional claimer on the turf going a mile. The conditions called for runners who'd run for $16K and she'd beaten better than that of late. She stalked the pace in fourth to the top of the lane, swung out into the clear and wore down the leader (my other pick in the Pick-6) and I finally had a winning pick at Gulfstream!
And in the ninth I was pretty confident I had "THE WINNER" in another starter event. The conditions here read, "....for four year olds and up who have raced for $8K since April 1, 2019...." and my pick, Yes I See had only run for that tag once, winning on April 5th. This race was written for her I was certain. Fortunately she was NOT the favorite and she was my SINGLE in the Pick 6 so I felt a lot of pressure. But the way she was moving on the turn I was confident. Made her move and blew by to score and I cashed for nearly $40!
The story of the Rainbow Pick 6: Gulfstream announced that they would have a mandatory payout and two things about that. When that happens the jackpot becomes absolutely GI-NORMOUS; and because it's a mandatory payout the payout is always shared. They do this every so often once the pot swells because the rules are you ONLY win the whole thing if you are the ONLY one with the single winning ticket. If more than one person hits six of six then you split 70% of the pot and 30% carries over. Heading into Sunday the carryover was $1.9 MILLION. Every time they have a mandatory payout like this with that kind of carry-over the pool goes well over $5 million for the winners to share. So I went back and forth about playing because two years ago at the Florida Derby I had five out of six and there have been a couple of times that IF I was willing to spend a little more money I would have it for a BIG prize. So I put together a ticket. Even with the bet being a twenty CENT wager, you don't have a reasonable chance to win unless you have several horses in several races. But the trick is to "spread" with several races where the winner is less predictable and to find at least one race where you think you have a "single" so your ticket cost is not ungodly. The sequence began in Race 6 where my "best" Bareeqa won and paid $4.20. In Race 7 I thought there were two obvious win candidates with one who could upset the field. Played all three. Sure enough, the "upset" pick won and paid $9 so that would eliminate the small ticket players who played mostly favorites. In the eighth race I thought it was a wide open affair and after going over and over it I "narrowed" it down to five runners, which also inflated the price of the ticket. Was glad I did because it was one of the upsets in the sequence but I HAD the $15.40 winner. I should tell you at this point in the story that by the time the Pick-6 started the pool closed at somewhere slightly over $8 million! Race 9 was THE RACE. I played only Yes I See and as I said above, she was NOT the favorite. Paid $7.20 and I'm still ALIVE. With the upset in the 8th and the single in the 9th I knew I'd be in a much more narrow group of possible winners. In the next-to-last race it seemed like a WIDE open affair. I thought there were three "likely" winners but I had put five on my ticket. Good thing, one of those won and paid $15.40. Even more people wiped out of their chance at a big pay day and now we were down to the final race. Of ALL the six races I thought it was THE most difficult and even though it really ballooned the price of the ticket I included SEVEN of the ten runners. In that group of seven I had the #2 and the #10.....and as they turned for home I was on the lead with the 2 and had the closing 10 coming down the middle of the turf course with a full head of steam.
I have to tell you at this point a very important part to the story....when I put this ticket together I KNEW it would be costly, but I also thought when I began constructing it that the payoff would more than justify it IF I hit it. The cost of playing a sequence of 2x3x5x1x5x7 for twenty cents came out to $210. ANd when I had finished I went over and over the ticket and then talked to Kim. I would be willing to go in for $50, maybe even $75 with a more than fair chance to win. But $200 was a bit more than I wanted to spend. What to do? Because you KNOW what would happen if I didn't play the ticket. But one miss and I'm out $200. Back and forth....finally I made my decision. I'd cut the ticket down and take my chances for just $21. On the actual ticket I bet I got knocked out in the second leg because I only played the two horses, not all three. But as the afternoon went on and my "big ticket" continued to be alive I began to have real mixed feelings. So NOW you can imagine what I felt like in mid-stretch when I was on the lead and had the closing horse on the outside with all the momentum. I HAD the winning Pick-6 ticket that would pay THOUSANDS and I didn't play. OH NO.....but the horse on the rail slipped by my front-running #2 and my closer #10 couldn't catch him. I would NOT have won.....I "saved" the $200 by not betting (as I thought might happen) but oh I was sooooo close and I would have been sick. Here's the ticket I created:
Despite several non-favorites winnign there were a considerable amount of people who split the pot. If you got six out of six.....
Now $20,158.94 is nothing to sneeze at and IF I'd played for $210 that wold MORE than have made for a profitable play. But the last time they had a mandatory payout it paid $200,000 to those who shared it. Of course there were more longshots that most bettors didn't have. The two outright winners I had made me a profit for the day - a whopping two dollars - but hey, considering the way the week had gone, I was delighted!
Missed in the opener and in the second, the two-year-olds were lining up and the Wes Ward favorite, Golden Pal looked even stronger than the filly did on Thursday. Went off at a "better" price of 1-2 and again Gaffalione shot to the front. COMPLETELY in control turning for home, and then again the second choice - from the same owners and trainer and jockey - blew by to beat him. OK, so I was wrong.....be careful with the Ward 2yo, not nearly as good in the Florida sunshine than they are in the spring time at Keeneland in Lexington. In the fourth I had a Saffie Joseph horse with Tyler G again. The 8/5 favorite stalked to the turn then pulled up. Then fifth at 7/5 and 2nd at 4/5 before closing the day in second - AGAIN - as the even money favorite. Not a day I'll remember down the line.
Saturday April 18: Apple Blossom Day
I was excited for the races today - not so much because of my picks, but the Grade 1 Apple Blossom has always been one of my favorite races of the year. And we've been fortunate to be in Hot Springs not once but twice for the big event. The day at Gulfstream saw me go 0-for again, but I had two Pick-3 races where I won both the first two legs with the "other" horse only to come up short in the final leg. At Oaklawn I won the third, a Maiden Special with Too Pretty with a minimum bet.....
In the fifth I liked a 3yo in this maiden claiming sprint who figured hard to get by, but she scratched. I looked at my analysis and I'd said that Skyvalue was a logical favorite and certainly the one to beat. So even with the way the day was going I doubled the bet. Wire to wire and I had my second winner of the afternoon in Hot Springs.
Scored with my "best of the day" at Oaklawn with Bob Baffert's Dessman who run in some big time events as a three-year-old last year out west. If he was half-way ready he'd win. He tracked the leaders in fourth to the far turn but wasn't "doing it on his own," and jockey Martin Garcia had to really get after him. But once he swung into the clear on the outside he found another gear and it became just a matter of by how much when he'd get to the front.
The day ended with two losses in the two featured events where I SHOULD have had a nice score in the first of them. In the Grade 3 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap Whitmore was going for his fourth win of this event. He LOVES Hot Springs and ALWAYS runs big here. He was a likely winner. But this year with all the other tracks being closed, the race had drawn a stellar field. And one of them was Bill Mott's Hidden Scroll. In my opinion the jury was still out on him. In his two wins he'd been sensational and as TVG analyst Scott Hazelton said prior to the race, he might just be in a class of his own going one turn, and we could be watching the launching of a superstar season. When he went off at 7/2 I was glad I'd taken him on the "promise" of how good he might be. Nope. Faded while the obvious choice, Whitmore blew by to win going away AND paid 3/1 on the board. WOW. Would have made the day. Then in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom it looked to be a hot pace to set up for a closer and I gave Street Band one more chance. The pace was wicked and she was closing. But only for third. So ended the day.
Sunday April 19: Mandatory Rainbow Pick-6 Payout Day
When I handicapped the card on Saturday I wasn't aware and/or paying any attention to the fact that today was going to be a mandatory payout. And honestly with the way the week had gone I was just hoping to win one race, maybe even two :) But by Sunday morning the racing headlines were all about how the the pool would soar for more than five or six million. So I sat down and went through my picks and compared them to what the four public handicappers had to say. Then I thought I'd put together a ticket with out considering the cost. What would my ticket look like if I really thought I had a chance to win? Before I tell that story, I had two outright winners. After running 4th in the second, third in the fourth and a dismal 8th in the fifth it was time for my "best" bet Bareeqa in a starter optional claimer on the turf going a mile. The conditions called for runners who'd run for $16K and she'd beaten better than that of late. She stalked the pace in fourth to the top of the lane, swung out into the clear and wore down the leader (my other pick in the Pick-6) and I finally had a winning pick at Gulfstream!
And in the ninth I was pretty confident I had "THE WINNER" in another starter event. The conditions here read, "....for four year olds and up who have raced for $8K since April 1, 2019...." and my pick, Yes I See had only run for that tag once, winning on April 5th. This race was written for her I was certain. Fortunately she was NOT the favorite and she was my SINGLE in the Pick 6 so I felt a lot of pressure. But the way she was moving on the turn I was confident. Made her move and blew by to score and I cashed for nearly $40!
The story of the Rainbow Pick 6: Gulfstream announced that they would have a mandatory payout and two things about that. When that happens the jackpot becomes absolutely GI-NORMOUS; and because it's a mandatory payout the payout is always shared. They do this every so often once the pot swells because the rules are you ONLY win the whole thing if you are the ONLY one with the single winning ticket. If more than one person hits six of six then you split 70% of the pot and 30% carries over. Heading into Sunday the carryover was $1.9 MILLION. Every time they have a mandatory payout like this with that kind of carry-over the pool goes well over $5 million for the winners to share. So I went back and forth about playing because two years ago at the Florida Derby I had five out of six and there have been a couple of times that IF I was willing to spend a little more money I would have it for a BIG prize. So I put together a ticket. Even with the bet being a twenty CENT wager, you don't have a reasonable chance to win unless you have several horses in several races. But the trick is to "spread" with several races where the winner is less predictable and to find at least one race where you think you have a "single" so your ticket cost is not ungodly. The sequence began in Race 6 where my "best" Bareeqa won and paid $4.20. In Race 7 I thought there were two obvious win candidates with one who could upset the field. Played all three. Sure enough, the "upset" pick won and paid $9 so that would eliminate the small ticket players who played mostly favorites. In the eighth race I thought it was a wide open affair and after going over and over it I "narrowed" it down to five runners, which also inflated the price of the ticket. Was glad I did because it was one of the upsets in the sequence but I HAD the $15.40 winner. I should tell you at this point in the story that by the time the Pick-6 started the pool closed at somewhere slightly over $8 million! Race 9 was THE RACE. I played only Yes I See and as I said above, she was NOT the favorite. Paid $7.20 and I'm still ALIVE. With the upset in the 8th and the single in the 9th I knew I'd be in a much more narrow group of possible winners. In the next-to-last race it seemed like a WIDE open affair. I thought there were three "likely" winners but I had put five on my ticket. Good thing, one of those won and paid $15.40. Even more people wiped out of their chance at a big pay day and now we were down to the final race. Of ALL the six races I thought it was THE most difficult and even though it really ballooned the price of the ticket I included SEVEN of the ten runners. In that group of seven I had the #2 and the #10.....and as they turned for home I was on the lead with the 2 and had the closing 10 coming down the middle of the turf course with a full head of steam.
I have to tell you at this point a very important part to the story....when I put this ticket together I KNEW it would be costly, but I also thought when I began constructing it that the payoff would more than justify it IF I hit it. The cost of playing a sequence of 2x3x5x1x5x7 for twenty cents came out to $210. ANd when I had finished I went over and over the ticket and then talked to Kim. I would be willing to go in for $50, maybe even $75 with a more than fair chance to win. But $200 was a bit more than I wanted to spend. What to do? Because you KNOW what would happen if I didn't play the ticket. But one miss and I'm out $200. Back and forth....finally I made my decision. I'd cut the ticket down and take my chances for just $21. On the actual ticket I bet I got knocked out in the second leg because I only played the two horses, not all three. But as the afternoon went on and my "big ticket" continued to be alive I began to have real mixed feelings. So NOW you can imagine what I felt like in mid-stretch when I was on the lead and had the closing horse on the outside with all the momentum. I HAD the winning Pick-6 ticket that would pay THOUSANDS and I didn't play. OH NO.....but the horse on the rail slipped by my front-running #2 and my closer #10 couldn't catch him. I would NOT have won.....I "saved" the $200 by not betting (as I thought might happen) but oh I was sooooo close and I would have been sick. Here's the ticket I created:
Despite several non-favorites winnign there were a considerable amount of people who split the pot. If you got six out of six.....
Now $20,158.94 is nothing to sneeze at and IF I'd played for $210 that wold MORE than have made for a profitable play. But the last time they had a mandatory payout it paid $200,000 to those who shared it. Of course there were more longshots that most bettors didn't have. The two outright winners I had made me a profit for the day - a whopping two dollars - but hey, considering the way the week had gone, I was delighted!
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