April 23 - 25: Jeff's Birthday Week
After last week's less than inspiring week of selections I was anxious to get going again. That made waiting through the Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday "Dark Days" much more difficult. But finally the racing week was upon us. And I have to say, that maybe it's because of the "Shelter In Place/Stay Home" guidelines we're all under with the pandemic, but with the racing not starting until Thursday I'm "off" all week. Friday feels like just another day; then Saturday feels like Friday..... Just a side note of interest, at least to me :)
Thursday April 23
By the time we were minutes away from the first race on Thursday I had handicapped the card for Friday earlier in the day and I mentioned to Kim that I felt like today, Thursday, was the better of the two cards and that I felt like I had a couple of legitimate Pick-3 opportunities that would provide a nice profit if I could any of them (or the Daily Doubles I had in mind). The race favorite, Lashka was my choice and she looked legitimate off of a very troubled last start. All she needed was a good set-up. In my analysis I mentioned she shouldn't be too far back because my second choice was a legitimate favorite and probably the one to catch. Prophetic - just that way and I didn't catch her. In the fourth race it was a 2-lifetime one-turn mile and there wasn't anyone who was running for a first time tag or first time in nw2L. Usually that results in a "PASS" for the race. But it was hard to look past the statistics for trainer Victor Barboza who had claimed Paynter Fest last time out. He is winning at an unbelievable 55% (from 38 starters) first off the claim. Paynther Fest's best-of-the-rest second two back behind a runaway winner (who'd be 1/5 here) was more than good enough to win in spite of the fact that the horse was moving UP in class. Right to the front and never looked back as a 9/5 people's choice.
Cashed for almost $30 and I was alive in both the Daily Double and the Pick-3. I had two horses in the fifth, including my WIN bet who was Ron Nicoletti's BEST of the day. Valdolobo pressed the pace to the stretch and then nothing. I left out the 5/2 second choice who won for fun. Dead in both the P3 and DD. Won the 6th with my BEST of the WEEK - even though I knew that Untitled would not pay anything, and I wasn't going to pad my bankroll, he still was worthy of that top wager. This was a first level allowance for Florida-breds going a one-turn mile. In Untitled's debut he earned a head-spinning 98 Beyer when winning by the length of the stretch. The public was all over him when he ran next in the Grade 3 Swale, but he bounced as most first-time out maiden winners do off a huge effort like that. Next time out he was in a Tampa allowance facing off with Todd Pletcher's highly regarded Gouverner Morris. He gave that one all he could handle (finishing a best-of-the-rest-second) and then 'Morris came back to be third in the Gr 1 Florida Derby. Untitled then shipped to New York to run in the one-turn mile Grade 3 Gotham. Made a big move but couldn't keep up with the favorite and again was a best-of-the-rest 2nd. Off two graded stakes and a race that easily COULD have been a graded event - all in OPEN company - he just looked like an easy-peasy-pie winner. And he was. TONS the best.
Was 2/5 at one point...1/5 at post time, but all the late money was on him and he only paid $2.20. Still, as I've often said, while I'll never turn down making money, it's all about being right and betting with the degree of confidence I have in the selection. Fourth at a solid 6/1 in the 7th I came right back to score in the eighth. Money Never Sleeps in a starter optional claiming event for 3yo going seven furlongs. You next to never see a runner claimed from a powerful stable - like Todd Pletcher in this case - and then MOVE UP in his subsequent races. But trainer Terri Pompay had done this with 'Money. First off the claim she nearly matched her career best when breaking her maiden and then improved her number again when a best-of-the-rest third behind two fillies that were daylight clear of everyone else in an allowance event. Down into this starter event she looked best. Sat patiently behind four rivals vying on the front end to the top of the stretch, then swung into the clear. Ran by everyone like they were tied to the rail and scored for fun as the 8/5 favorite.
The payoff resulted in nearly $30 into the account as I had my third winner on the day. The final bet of the day came in the featured ninth, a second level allowance going nine furlongs on the turf. As I said in my analysis, ".... this may sound obvious, but it's either Temple in here or it's not ...." Since claimed by Michael Maker he'd run five straight races in the mid-to-low 90s, all of which would probably win here. The problem was that while he was consistent, he'd not shown any improvement. As the field turned for home, SEVEN of them were bunched with jockey Luis Saez opting to try and wait for room along the rail. Looked like a bad idea until the furlong pole when there was J-U-S-T enough room to get through and Temple burst through to win going away. I'd only bet the minimum, but it was good enough to collect over $10 and give me four wins from just seven selections. I LIKE these kind of days at the races :)
Friday April 24
The day started out with ominous foreshadowing as I thought the first race was a wide-open maiden claiming event going two turns on the turf. I mentioned that if I were betting, and I was not, I'd like Mr. Tito on the rail. Yes, you guessed it. He won. And not at the 5/1 price he was in the Form but at 10/1 odds. Sigh..... I told myself I'd be doubly upset if I didn't play the early double because I had the 4/5 favorite in the second. But he was no threat when a runner-up to the 5/1 third choice. Passed the third and then I had a Daily Double going in the fourth and fifth. Both were turf sprints and even though both my top choices would probably be odds-on, it was like "giving away money" by hooking them together. The fourth was a maiden claiming event and I'm Prayingforthat was the most obvious choice, first because of all the reasons the others would NOT win. Only five numbers earned by the combined 47 starts of her eight rivals would compete with all three of her career numbers and NONE of those were likely to be earned today. And her WORST figure was the only number they would beat if they ran to their best. In her dirt debut she'd run well enough, but then she dropped in class a notch and sprinted on the turf today with a best-of-the-rest 2nd. Tried two turns last time out and was steadied in Maiden Special company. Back in for a tag and to sprinting she was the DRF BEST Bet. Right to the front and never, ever in doubt.
The final odds of 3/5 netted me nearly $20 for a double investment. In the second half of the double I had a triple investment WIN wager on winning machine Tiger Blood. At first glance I thought this might be a good spot to go against this guy who was 8-for-9 at the distance. Why? Because all his other scores had come in starter optional claiming and this was a second level allowance - much tougher competition. But when you scanned through the field NONE of these had had any success at this level. OK, that levels out that negative. Since last July he'd run only two races that gave the rest of the field any hope. One was last July at Kentucky Downs when he earned an 86 Beyer. And that was over their unique undulating course, and more importantly going 6 1/2 furlongs - Tiger Blood rules at FIVE furlongs. The only other figure, his worst on the page came when the connections experimented with a two-turn route in a starter stakes. Toss that. You could question if he would be able to get to the front and maybe if outsprinted early from his inside draw he'd have a difficult time getting the trip; if he DID get to the front he might have to go too fast. But in the end he was simply too good for these I thought. He burst out of the gate under regular rider Edgard Zayas and blistered the opening fractions in a torrid :21.1 and :43.3. Too fast? Maybe, but when the closers came he was all heart and held them off comfortably.
The triple investment returned nearly $25 for my second winner on the day. And with the big $5 Daily Double play I'd converted two prohibitive 3/5 favorites into a 2/1 WIN bet. Cashed for over $16 on that bet. NICE. In the eighth I employed THE most important rule in handicapping.....there ARE NO RULES! That applied here because the adage is, "never bet a horse - especially at a short price - to do something for the first time (or that they've never done before" and that was exactly what was going on with my top choice, Eve of War from the Todd Pletcher barn. She debuted in a six furlong dirt sprint and had wired the field in a sensational performance as the 1-2 favorite (yes, I had her that day). But she'd disappointed in the next when completely compromised at the start. Now she was going two turns on the turf. Add in that Pletcher was a cold 5-for-41 at the Spring/Summer meet to date. But she was bred up and down for two turns and the turf and I thought if she ran anything close to her debut she was the winner. Right to the front and in complete control to the top of the lane when the second choice made a bold bid and got nearly on even terms. They dueled for about a sixteenth of a mile, but in the final two hundred yards Eve of War drew clear. WHOOO HOOO I've got my third winner on the day.
Following this race I had two "PASS" events in a row so Kim and I had timed it out where we could go on our "date night" to pick up our steak dinner from Outback. We returned home and "dined" out on the pool deck with the waterfront view......
I've found it interesting that over the past month when ever I've posted something about Kim and I and how we are doing with the "Stay At Home" situation that we get SOOOO many social media hits. You'll note above that we had fifty-five "likes" and five comments. Trust me, for one of my Facebook posts, that's a lot. Missed with the 3/2 favorite who went too fast going two turns in the ninth before the finale. And in here it was my UPSET SPECIAL for the day. And as we finished dinner I was able to watch this race live. This was another five furlong turf sprint and it was a cheap maiden claiming event. Several weeks ago there was a similar dirt sprint like this where no one looked worth a wager but there was a first time starter from the Gilberto Zerpa barn and he wins at nearly 50% with these. He did that day and I had it at a $15+ payoff. So with no one standing out today I made Kobe Fifty Two at 12/1 in the program my top choice. As I turned on the live feed we were about five minutes from post time and he'd been bet down all the way to 3/1. I just had this feeling that I KNEW he'd win in wire fashion under the "Minister of Speed," jockey Emisael Jaramillo and with the betting action I was oh-so-tempted to up the bet. But my conservative side said, "Look, we've already got three wins, and a daily double....let's not press the issue." Woulda, coulda, shoulda. Right to the front and coasted EASILY. Paid $9.20 so I still collected nearly $25 on the minimum bet, but it could have been nearly $50 with simply doubling the bet. Oh well, have to be content with a 4-for-6 day at the races AND cashing a $5 COLD Daily Double play, right?
Saturday April 25 - Happy Birthday Jeff
Yes, the oldest son turns the page on another year and now I have a son who's nearly 40 years old. How did THAT happen? I still think I'm "growing up" and attractive to the 18-20 year-old hotties I see from time to time! LOL. So to be honest, overall Saturday wasn't a "bad" day, but it was far from coming close to the way the week had started out. I did cash in on a Pick-3 and a Daily Double on the day, but my price horse didn't win in any of those events so I was happy to "get out" with a flat bet profit for the double, multi-race wagers. I also played the Oaklawn card where there were three oh-so-obvious "winners." But for the day I had only one cashed ticket - luckily it was the "BEST" of the day and at the "best" price of all the added investment wagers. After passing both the first two at Gulfstream I liked Lanse Mitan enough in the third to not only make him the kick-off leg of the Pick 3 but to bet him to win straight up, albeit with the minimum. He was the DRF Best, but I've learned that when Mike Welsch says that, it really doesn't add a lot of confidence to the selection. He wins far, FAR less of his BEST than I do, just sayin'. It looked to be him after he'd been second best at Tampa behind a runner who'd come right back to win, and that 2nd was in for a higher tag. His main rival was just inside him at 9/2 on the board. I used them both in the Pick-3 wager. That one took the lead at 7/2 with my WIN wager tracking him. Dueled into the lane and I opened up and edged clear while the other faded to third. Collected a little over $10 on the favorite, but I am alive in the Pick-3.
In the second leg jockey Irad Ortiz was making his return to the saddle after taking more than a month off. He was on the likely favorite, who I included in the Pick-3, but I preferred Peacock Kitten who was 3/1 at post time. As the field spun out of the turn Peacock Kitten was looming dangerously right behind The Mighty Judge, Ortiz's horse. That one came to the leader and I looked to split them. But the inside horse veered out close to 'The Judge and I had to briefly steady. Drifted back towards the rail and I was urged into the seam only to be cut off again. Not saying I would have won but I certainly didn't get a fair chance to win. But, I'll take staying alive in the Pick-3. And he'd been one of two horses I played in a 2-by-3 Daily Double. In the fifth I liked first time starter Chasing Anna who was 6/1 in the program. Right to the front at 5/1 going 7f in MSW company but the splits (:22.1 and especially :44.4 for the opening half mile) were too quick. Gave way late and all hope of a pricey return on the two multi-race bets went out the window. In the final 16th of the race I was assured of cashing both as the two runners who'd separated themselves were both mine, on both tickets. BUT they were the 8/5 favorite and 9/5 second favorite. At least it was the latter. While I'd like to have made $50 or more, still I'd been entertained, won three in a row and cashed three tickets to start the day in Hallandale. Can't really complain about that, right?
In the sixth, and oh how I wish I'd used THIS horse as the key for the multi-race wagers, but I didn't. My plan had been, with rain in the forecast to make the "Main Track Only" as a PRIME TIME win bet and a single in a Pick-3 sequence and Daily Double. But the races stayed on the turf and so I had considered an alternative ticket using the top three turf picks but going 4-by-3-by-3 was going to run me almost $20 for a small Pick 3 or Daily Double and I just didn't think it was worth the investment. Had I played the double in races 5-6 for a dollar it would have cost me $12 and I would have collected $14.80; if I'd played the $.50 Pick-3 it would have cost $24 and would have paid $28 with the double in those two races costing $9 to get $22....but as it turned out a straight up win bet was the best way to go. The sixth was on the turf going five furlongs for entry level allowance horses. Catharsis lured Irad Ortiz and was 6-for-16 at the distance and 5-for-12 locally. That really appealed to me. AND in this Allowance-Optional Claiming event she'd already won this condition THREE times. She sat right off the leader to the stretch, asked for run and ran by to win by daylight. She went off a lucrative 9/2 and paid $11.60. With my double investment I collected nearly $60. Much lower risk for a much better return on investment. Well played Mr. Mark.
Missed the seventh when the even money favorite was trapped behind horses and couldn't get out until too late and then a Pletcher 4/5 favorite was a show nothing 7th in the 8th for me. I don't mind losing, it's part of the game, but I DO mind when my horse doesn't run and/or isn't ridden the way I think he should be. Such was the case in the 9th, the featured Unbridled Stakes for 3yo. Relentless Dancer had always run his best on the front end and he looked like the lone speed. But jockey Chris Landeros tried to track the speed....the winner was the favorite, a Pletcher odds-on runner. Sigh....so he DOES NOT win with the short priced fav when I'm on and DOES WIN when I'm not. Thanks Todd. Passed the 10th and then I was just amazed when graded stakes winner Global Campaign was allowed to go off at 5/2 odds in a conditioned allowance. That was because (a) he was coming off a layoff and facing older for the first time, but also (b) because a Pletcher colt was made the short priced favorite. I'd had Soldado in both his wins so far this year. But prior to his last, which was a gutsy performance, the connections had said they thought he was a stakes kind of runner. Instead of going in a stakes, here he was in an allowance AND stretching to seven furlongs. I liked neither part of that move. Sure enough he was a badly beaten sixth. Meanwhile, Global Campaign looked to take his time before finding his running shoes, but when put into the clear some six wide in the stretch he ran down the cavalry charge of runners who'd fanned across the track.
My triple investment on the "best" of the day at Gulfstream led to a nearly $60 payoff and made my day, at Gulfstream at least, a winning one. Not so much at Oaklawn. I was taken by a photo that I saw online of the empty stands at Oaklawn and so I pulled up a picture I'd taken on Arkansas Derby Day from nearly the same spot......
Sad, but at least there IS racing. I had two seconds, a third and a 4th before the first of the stakes races. In the Bachelor Stakes Bob Baffert sent out Gr 1 winning Eight Rings who just looked way, WAY too good for these. But on the turn when making "the move" he just flattened out to be fifth. In the featured Carousel Stakes, a six furlong sprint for older fillies and mares I KNEW I had the right one in Mia Mischief. And in spite of her being a Grade 1 winner and a "Horse for the Course" at Oaklawn I thought I'd get at least a "fair" price. The crowd would almost certainly favor So Cal shipper and multiple Gr 1 winner Bellafina. But what I'd learned the hard way, when she'd lost TWICE for me is that she's an outstanding sprinter or even router in Southern California, especially Santa Anita. But in every start outside of California not only didn't she win, but she didn't run well. Add in that today she was on the rail and historically wasn't the sharpest of breakers. Sure enough, she broke slowly and was immediately shuffled back. Not so with Mia Mischief who broke from the outside and quickly was stalking the pace of the very quick Amy's Challenge. Into the lane Mia Mischief collared her and then put on a real display of power and she ran away as tons the best.
The 3/2 post time odds allowed my prime time bet to collect $50 and turn the 0-for day at Oaklawn into a reasonable loss and made the day overall a very minimal loss while collecting four more wins.
Sunday April 26
In anticipation of the rains and with the small rain showers on Saturday the first two turf races were off on Sunday. But that's ok because I'd handicapped for both scenarios. And two great stories top the week off. In between the first and last wagers of the day my runners simply didn't fire. No complaint today on the rides, they did exactly what I expected and when asked to finish they didn't so it goes in racing. But here were the two races that carried the day to a profitable end of the week..... In the opener - before the rains hit - it was scheduled to be five furlongs on the grass. I had made Go Gone Gone the pick if moved to the dirt because his past performances showed not one, not two, but three main track wins. He was 8/1 in the program for turf, figured much lower on the dirt. But when the betting was only ten minutes from post he was still 8/1. What the? So before making the bet I waited to see what hottie Acacia Courtney and sidekick Jason Blewitt would say about the opener. As they came on air and their picks were under their video pictures I noted BOTH liked the #7 who was not in my analysis anywhere to be found AND he was the betting favorite. I waited for Blewitt to finish his analysis (while he's a "good" handicapper and often makes valid points, in my opinion he's rarely got a real gem of an insight and pretty much says whats in the past performances with his opinion sprinkled in). But it was Courtney that I wanted to hear - she typically likes the same horse I do, but what appeals to me (besides her strikingly good looks) is that she often reads between the lines and sees things I don't. In this case she pointed out that the favorite "obviously" had the best dirt form in the race AND looked to be the lone speed. Wait, that's why I liked Go Gone Gone. So I opened up the past performances and sure enough, while I had four wins on dirt, the favorite had ELEVEN. Maybe Acacia and the crowd are on to something. Change the bet. I considered it and looked at the probable payoffs in the early double - everyone liked the 7 in here also. Then the decision came to me clearly....NO, I handicapped the race, I looked at it as if moved to the dirt and Go Gone Gone IS a likely winner. Besides, I reasoned. What IF my horse won, at a nice price and I'd HAD it and let him go. Flashbacks to a couple weeks ago when I had a Chad Brown horse who went off at 9/1, he was the top pick with a double investment and I let the crowd and Acacia & Jason talk me off it - well, ok, I take responsibility for the decision - but still flashbacks big time. I stuck with my pick. Right out of the gate the #7 was on the lead. But immediately I was on his hip. On the turn I glided by without being asked and when the favorite tried to re-rally my horse would have none of it and I pulled clear. I immediately said out loud, "I am SO SMART!" which drew the attention of my wife who I told the story to s the $11.60 mutual flashed on the screen and I cashed for almost $60. YAY ME!
The day ended with two great calls on my part. First, the last race of the day was scheduled for the turf but the deluge of rain had washed it off. Still my pick was in the race. Play or not to play. I considered it and then thought, nope....in this race I didn't like anyone if it wasn't on the turf and I wasn't going to let the "action" lure me in. He was well beaten - another good call by me. The ninth race was labeled my UPSET SPECIAL and I thought I was going to really make some money here. The original field of twelve were scheduled to go a mile and a sixteenth on the turf and as I looked down the past performances it was a "like DUH" epiphany - no one, and I mean NO ONE wanted the lead in here, except my pick, Roddick who was a remarkable 20/1 in the program. AND he had the "Minister of Speed" Emisael Jaramillo on board. He wires this field for fun I thought. So what if it comes off the turf? STILL, no one wants the front AND we get the added benefit that a dirt race at this distance uses the first finish line, which means a front runner has a shorter distance to "hold on" to the wire. I knew on the dirt there would be scratches and I wouldn't get 20/1, but most assuredly I'd get 10/1 or so. Sure enough the field was whittled down to just a half dozen and as I looked at the odds and the multi-race payoffs I was surprised that the #12 was being so heavily bet. So I opened up my Racing Form. He'd run on the dirt AND nearly all his Beyer figures were better than Roddick's AND he had hot-riding Irad Ortiz on board. Hmmmm. Am I wrong? I looked at the two of them, back and forth. Finally the decision.....YES, the favorite had the better speed figures, BUT most recently his numbers were not quite as good as his best races and also, IF Roddick got loose on the lead he could very easily improve his speed figure. Add in that the favorite would be closing and I thought run out of time with the short stretch and I was all in on my bet. Roddick was on the board around 6/1 which was fair when the alluring Acacia came on air. She picked....RODDICK. Oh no Acacia! I wasn't surprised she picked him but she then proceeded to tell everyone listening WHY he would win. And Jason Blewitt had him second. The odds went to 5/1, then 9/2 then 4/1, then 7/2 and as they walked into the gate he was the 5/2 second choice. WOW. From 20/1 - which would mean a $200 payoff (ok, unrealistic, but still a fella can dream right?) to a probably $35 payoff. Well, better than 4/5. And the gates sprung open. Right to the front, on cruise control until they were approaching the far turn. Then Irad Ortiz demonstrated why he IS one of the best in the game. He too had obviously studied the form so he began what should have been a stretch rally on the turn. Midway on the turn he was on near even terms and the two of them began to duel. The favorite had all the momentum as they turned into the lane and I thought it was over. But Jaramillo held tight to the rail and cut the corner expertly. So while the favorite floated a length wider he lost about 3/4 of a length. OK, we have a chance! Quickly Ortiz pushed for more and they were on even terms, shoulder to shoulder, one head up and one head down. It would come down to who wanted it more and/or a head bob. They hit the wire together....PHOTO finish. I called Kim over to watch the slow motion replay and didn't tell her which was mine....she said, "I think the inside horse," YES - I replied that's what I think, that's me! Sure enough, "Ladies and Gentlemen the result of the photograph shows #10 Roddick the winner of Race 9" called out Announcer Pete. And the best part of the story......soon after they left the gate the late money was added into the win pool and somehow - because EVERYONE pounded the favorite - Roddick floated up from 5/2 to 4/1 odds. Now THAT'S more like it. The winning mutual of $10 resulted in a $50 payoff and I'm a winner for the day.
For the week I won nearly 40% and added almost $70 to my profitable bankroll while putting up a big ROI for the week on every $2 invested. Gotta love the races!
The payoff resulted in nearly $30 into the account as I had my third winner on the day. The final bet of the day came in the featured ninth, a second level allowance going nine furlongs on the turf. As I said in my analysis, ".... this may sound obvious, but it's either Temple in here or it's not ...." Since claimed by Michael Maker he'd run five straight races in the mid-to-low 90s, all of which would probably win here. The problem was that while he was consistent, he'd not shown any improvement. As the field turned for home, SEVEN of them were bunched with jockey Luis Saez opting to try and wait for room along the rail. Looked like a bad idea until the furlong pole when there was J-U-S-T enough room to get through and Temple burst through to win going away. I'd only bet the minimum, but it was good enough to collect over $10 and give me four wins from just seven selections. I LIKE these kind of days at the races :)
Friday April 24
The day started out with ominous foreshadowing as I thought the first race was a wide-open maiden claiming event going two turns on the turf. I mentioned that if I were betting, and I was not, I'd like Mr. Tito on the rail. Yes, you guessed it. He won. And not at the 5/1 price he was in the Form but at 10/1 odds. Sigh..... I told myself I'd be doubly upset if I didn't play the early double because I had the 4/5 favorite in the second. But he was no threat when a runner-up to the 5/1 third choice. Passed the third and then I had a Daily Double going in the fourth and fifth. Both were turf sprints and even though both my top choices would probably be odds-on, it was like "giving away money" by hooking them together. The fourth was a maiden claiming event and I'm Prayingforthat was the most obvious choice, first because of all the reasons the others would NOT win. Only five numbers earned by the combined 47 starts of her eight rivals would compete with all three of her career numbers and NONE of those were likely to be earned today. And her WORST figure was the only number they would beat if they ran to their best. In her dirt debut she'd run well enough, but then she dropped in class a notch and sprinted on the turf today with a best-of-the-rest 2nd. Tried two turns last time out and was steadied in Maiden Special company. Back in for a tag and to sprinting she was the DRF BEST Bet. Right to the front and never, ever in doubt.
The final odds of 3/5 netted me nearly $20 for a double investment. In the second half of the double I had a triple investment WIN wager on winning machine Tiger Blood. At first glance I thought this might be a good spot to go against this guy who was 8-for-9 at the distance. Why? Because all his other scores had come in starter optional claiming and this was a second level allowance - much tougher competition. But when you scanned through the field NONE of these had had any success at this level. OK, that levels out that negative. Since last July he'd run only two races that gave the rest of the field any hope. One was last July at Kentucky Downs when he earned an 86 Beyer. And that was over their unique undulating course, and more importantly going 6 1/2 furlongs - Tiger Blood rules at FIVE furlongs. The only other figure, his worst on the page came when the connections experimented with a two-turn route in a starter stakes. Toss that. You could question if he would be able to get to the front and maybe if outsprinted early from his inside draw he'd have a difficult time getting the trip; if he DID get to the front he might have to go too fast. But in the end he was simply too good for these I thought. He burst out of the gate under regular rider Edgard Zayas and blistered the opening fractions in a torrid :21.1 and :43.3. Too fast? Maybe, but when the closers came he was all heart and held them off comfortably.
AND The Daily Double
Following this race I had two "PASS" events in a row so Kim and I had timed it out where we could go on our "date night" to pick up our steak dinner from Outback. We returned home and "dined" out on the pool deck with the waterfront view......
I've found it interesting that over the past month when ever I've posted something about Kim and I and how we are doing with the "Stay At Home" situation that we get SOOOO many social media hits. You'll note above that we had fifty-five "likes" and five comments. Trust me, for one of my Facebook posts, that's a lot. Missed with the 3/2 favorite who went too fast going two turns in the ninth before the finale. And in here it was my UPSET SPECIAL for the day. And as we finished dinner I was able to watch this race live. This was another five furlong turf sprint and it was a cheap maiden claiming event. Several weeks ago there was a similar dirt sprint like this where no one looked worth a wager but there was a first time starter from the Gilberto Zerpa barn and he wins at nearly 50% with these. He did that day and I had it at a $15+ payoff. So with no one standing out today I made Kobe Fifty Two at 12/1 in the program my top choice. As I turned on the live feed we were about five minutes from post time and he'd been bet down all the way to 3/1. I just had this feeling that I KNEW he'd win in wire fashion under the "Minister of Speed," jockey Emisael Jaramillo and with the betting action I was oh-so-tempted to up the bet. But my conservative side said, "Look, we've already got three wins, and a daily double....let's not press the issue." Woulda, coulda, shoulda. Right to the front and coasted EASILY. Paid $9.20 so I still collected nearly $25 on the minimum bet, but it could have been nearly $50 with simply doubling the bet. Oh well, have to be content with a 4-for-6 day at the races AND cashing a $5 COLD Daily Double play, right?
Saturday April 25 - Happy Birthday Jeff
Yes, the oldest son turns the page on another year and now I have a son who's nearly 40 years old. How did THAT happen? I still think I'm "growing up" and attractive to the 18-20 year-old hotties I see from time to time! LOL. So to be honest, overall Saturday wasn't a "bad" day, but it was far from coming close to the way the week had started out. I did cash in on a Pick-3 and a Daily Double on the day, but my price horse didn't win in any of those events so I was happy to "get out" with a flat bet profit for the double, multi-race wagers. I also played the Oaklawn card where there were three oh-so-obvious "winners." But for the day I had only one cashed ticket - luckily it was the "BEST" of the day and at the "best" price of all the added investment wagers. After passing both the first two at Gulfstream I liked Lanse Mitan enough in the third to not only make him the kick-off leg of the Pick 3 but to bet him to win straight up, albeit with the minimum. He was the DRF Best, but I've learned that when Mike Welsch says that, it really doesn't add a lot of confidence to the selection. He wins far, FAR less of his BEST than I do, just sayin'. It looked to be him after he'd been second best at Tampa behind a runner who'd come right back to win, and that 2nd was in for a higher tag. His main rival was just inside him at 9/2 on the board. I used them both in the Pick-3 wager. That one took the lead at 7/2 with my WIN wager tracking him. Dueled into the lane and I opened up and edged clear while the other faded to third. Collected a little over $10 on the favorite, but I am alive in the Pick-3.
In the second leg jockey Irad Ortiz was making his return to the saddle after taking more than a month off. He was on the likely favorite, who I included in the Pick-3, but I preferred Peacock Kitten who was 3/1 at post time. As the field spun out of the turn Peacock Kitten was looming dangerously right behind The Mighty Judge, Ortiz's horse. That one came to the leader and I looked to split them. But the inside horse veered out close to 'The Judge and I had to briefly steady. Drifted back towards the rail and I was urged into the seam only to be cut off again. Not saying I would have won but I certainly didn't get a fair chance to win. But, I'll take staying alive in the Pick-3. And he'd been one of two horses I played in a 2-by-3 Daily Double. In the fifth I liked first time starter Chasing Anna who was 6/1 in the program. Right to the front at 5/1 going 7f in MSW company but the splits (:22.1 and especially :44.4 for the opening half mile) were too quick. Gave way late and all hope of a pricey return on the two multi-race bets went out the window. In the final 16th of the race I was assured of cashing both as the two runners who'd separated themselves were both mine, on both tickets. BUT they were the 8/5 favorite and 9/5 second favorite. At least it was the latter. While I'd like to have made $50 or more, still I'd been entertained, won three in a row and cashed three tickets to start the day in Hallandale. Can't really complain about that, right?
In the sixth, and oh how I wish I'd used THIS horse as the key for the multi-race wagers, but I didn't. My plan had been, with rain in the forecast to make the "Main Track Only" as a PRIME TIME win bet and a single in a Pick-3 sequence and Daily Double. But the races stayed on the turf and so I had considered an alternative ticket using the top three turf picks but going 4-by-3-by-3 was going to run me almost $20 for a small Pick 3 or Daily Double and I just didn't think it was worth the investment. Had I played the double in races 5-6 for a dollar it would have cost me $12 and I would have collected $14.80; if I'd played the $.50 Pick-3 it would have cost $24 and would have paid $28 with the double in those two races costing $9 to get $22....but as it turned out a straight up win bet was the best way to go. The sixth was on the turf going five furlongs for entry level allowance horses. Catharsis lured Irad Ortiz and was 6-for-16 at the distance and 5-for-12 locally. That really appealed to me. AND in this Allowance-Optional Claiming event she'd already won this condition THREE times. She sat right off the leader to the stretch, asked for run and ran by to win by daylight. She went off a lucrative 9/2 and paid $11.60. With my double investment I collected nearly $60. Much lower risk for a much better return on investment. Well played Mr. Mark.
Missed the seventh when the even money favorite was trapped behind horses and couldn't get out until too late and then a Pletcher 4/5 favorite was a show nothing 7th in the 8th for me. I don't mind losing, it's part of the game, but I DO mind when my horse doesn't run and/or isn't ridden the way I think he should be. Such was the case in the 9th, the featured Unbridled Stakes for 3yo. Relentless Dancer had always run his best on the front end and he looked like the lone speed. But jockey Chris Landeros tried to track the speed....the winner was the favorite, a Pletcher odds-on runner. Sigh....so he DOES NOT win with the short priced fav when I'm on and DOES WIN when I'm not. Thanks Todd. Passed the 10th and then I was just amazed when graded stakes winner Global Campaign was allowed to go off at 5/2 odds in a conditioned allowance. That was because (a) he was coming off a layoff and facing older for the first time, but also (b) because a Pletcher colt was made the short priced favorite. I'd had Soldado in both his wins so far this year. But prior to his last, which was a gutsy performance, the connections had said they thought he was a stakes kind of runner. Instead of going in a stakes, here he was in an allowance AND stretching to seven furlongs. I liked neither part of that move. Sure enough he was a badly beaten sixth. Meanwhile, Global Campaign looked to take his time before finding his running shoes, but when put into the clear some six wide in the stretch he ran down the cavalry charge of runners who'd fanned across the track.
My triple investment on the "best" of the day at Gulfstream led to a nearly $60 payoff and made my day, at Gulfstream at least, a winning one. Not so much at Oaklawn. I was taken by a photo that I saw online of the empty stands at Oaklawn and so I pulled up a picture I'd taken on Arkansas Derby Day from nearly the same spot......
Sad, but at least there IS racing. I had two seconds, a third and a 4th before the first of the stakes races. In the Bachelor Stakes Bob Baffert sent out Gr 1 winning Eight Rings who just looked way, WAY too good for these. But on the turn when making "the move" he just flattened out to be fifth. In the featured Carousel Stakes, a six furlong sprint for older fillies and mares I KNEW I had the right one in Mia Mischief. And in spite of her being a Grade 1 winner and a "Horse for the Course" at Oaklawn I thought I'd get at least a "fair" price. The crowd would almost certainly favor So Cal shipper and multiple Gr 1 winner Bellafina. But what I'd learned the hard way, when she'd lost TWICE for me is that she's an outstanding sprinter or even router in Southern California, especially Santa Anita. But in every start outside of California not only didn't she win, but she didn't run well. Add in that today she was on the rail and historically wasn't the sharpest of breakers. Sure enough, she broke slowly and was immediately shuffled back. Not so with Mia Mischief who broke from the outside and quickly was stalking the pace of the very quick Amy's Challenge. Into the lane Mia Mischief collared her and then put on a real display of power and she ran away as tons the best.
The 3/2 post time odds allowed my prime time bet to collect $50 and turn the 0-for day at Oaklawn into a reasonable loss and made the day overall a very minimal loss while collecting four more wins.
Sunday April 26
The day ended with two great calls on my part. First, the last race of the day was scheduled for the turf but the deluge of rain had washed it off. Still my pick was in the race. Play or not to play. I considered it and then thought, nope....in this race I didn't like anyone if it wasn't on the turf and I wasn't going to let the "action" lure me in. He was well beaten - another good call by me. The ninth race was labeled my UPSET SPECIAL and I thought I was going to really make some money here. The original field of twelve were scheduled to go a mile and a sixteenth on the turf and as I looked down the past performances it was a "like DUH" epiphany - no one, and I mean NO ONE wanted the lead in here, except my pick, Roddick who was a remarkable 20/1 in the program. AND he had the "Minister of Speed" Emisael Jaramillo on board. He wires this field for fun I thought. So what if it comes off the turf? STILL, no one wants the front AND we get the added benefit that a dirt race at this distance uses the first finish line, which means a front runner has a shorter distance to "hold on" to the wire. I knew on the dirt there would be scratches and I wouldn't get 20/1, but most assuredly I'd get 10/1 or so. Sure enough the field was whittled down to just a half dozen and as I looked at the odds and the multi-race payoffs I was surprised that the #12 was being so heavily bet. So I opened up my Racing Form. He'd run on the dirt AND nearly all his Beyer figures were better than Roddick's AND he had hot-riding Irad Ortiz on board. Hmmmm. Am I wrong? I looked at the two of them, back and forth. Finally the decision.....YES, the favorite had the better speed figures, BUT most recently his numbers were not quite as good as his best races and also, IF Roddick got loose on the lead he could very easily improve his speed figure. Add in that the favorite would be closing and I thought run out of time with the short stretch and I was all in on my bet. Roddick was on the board around 6/1 which was fair when the alluring Acacia came on air. She picked....RODDICK. Oh no Acacia! I wasn't surprised she picked him but she then proceeded to tell everyone listening WHY he would win. And Jason Blewitt had him second. The odds went to 5/1, then 9/2 then 4/1, then 7/2 and as they walked into the gate he was the 5/2 second choice. WOW. From 20/1 - which would mean a $200 payoff (ok, unrealistic, but still a fella can dream right?) to a probably $35 payoff. Well, better than 4/5. And the gates sprung open. Right to the front, on cruise control until they were approaching the far turn. Then Irad Ortiz demonstrated why he IS one of the best in the game. He too had obviously studied the form so he began what should have been a stretch rally on the turn. Midway on the turn he was on near even terms and the two of them began to duel. The favorite had all the momentum as they turned into the lane and I thought it was over. But Jaramillo held tight to the rail and cut the corner expertly. So while the favorite floated a length wider he lost about 3/4 of a length. OK, we have a chance! Quickly Ortiz pushed for more and they were on even terms, shoulder to shoulder, one head up and one head down. It would come down to who wanted it more and/or a head bob. They hit the wire together....PHOTO finish. I called Kim over to watch the slow motion replay and didn't tell her which was mine....she said, "I think the inside horse," YES - I replied that's what I think, that's me! Sure enough, "Ladies and Gentlemen the result of the photograph shows #10 Roddick the winner of Race 9" called out Announcer Pete. And the best part of the story......soon after they left the gate the late money was added into the win pool and somehow - because EVERYONE pounded the favorite - Roddick floated up from 5/2 to 4/1 odds. Now THAT'S more like it. The winning mutual of $10 resulted in a $50 payoff and I'm a winner for the day.
For the week I won nearly 40% and added almost $70 to my profitable bankroll while putting up a big ROI for the week on every $2 invested. Gotta love the races!
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