Memorial Day Week

May 21 - 25

I've said for a long time since I first became "serious" about handicapping.....picking winners is only half the battle.  The other half is getting the prices and the payoffs.  I've come to understand and accept that it's not a money-making venture mainly because I cannot control how the crowd bets.  I can only control picking the winners and hoping to make more money than I bet by trying to manipulate the wagering amounts.  And this week was the perfect example.  With the extended five days of racing, and playing Churchill Downs along with Santa Anita I scored with over 40% of my selections and yet I lost money for the week.  Go figure.  But to be fair, I had one winner that paid $9 and the rest were all short prices.  And several picks, especially on Monday, failed to deliver with added money wagers.  Here's how the week played out......

Thursday May 21

What a great way to start the week!  The weather had made the turf course wet so we were off the turf for the first half of the card.  In the opener I liked the rail horse on or off the turf, Setting The Mood.  She had the breeding to handle the distance and either surface as a daughter of Lea.  She broke sharply and then was taken back off the pace.  Blew by on the turn and cleared off through the lane to score at even money.

In the second I went against my own advice and backed the Wesley Ward second time starter Lime, who'd disappointed in her debut at 1/5 odds but she'd been nearly nine clear of the show filly.  Certainly today, right.....nope.  Second at 2/5 when chasing the OTHER Ward filly all the way around the track.  The third was a non-winners of three lifetime event going two turns, a mile and a sixteenth with the first finish line.  Brasstown was the LONE speed of the race, on the drop down in class for Saffie Joseph.  Looked really hard to go past.  Boobled out of the gate and was shuffled back early.  Uh oh.  Then was between runners onto the backstretch before Irad Ortiz said "Enough of this" and made a blitzkrieg to the front and ran away as easily best.

In the third, originally carded as a five furlong turf sprint for maiden claimers it now appeared to go through Carolyn's Smile who was a much better fit on the dirt.  She'd shown high speed and had the best dirt speed figures.  She'd faded in five straight but her second, beaten a neck at six furlongs told me she'd be ok at today's abbreviated trip.  She was beaten to the lead, chased on the outside and looked hopelessly beaten at the sixteenth pole, but one final acceleration......

UP IN TIME!  And I had my third winner of the day through just four races.  I had handicapped the Churchill card and felt "iffy" about most selections.  I was surprised when my top choice of the day in their 2nd was NOT the post-time favorite and he was just second best to the actual favorite.  Crowd nearly always knows better.  Got right back on the winning track in Gulfstream's fifth, a non-winners of two lifetime sprint.  I didn't have a lot of confidence in Big Spender who looked loose on the lead and SHOULD be able to hold on while dropping to the basement.  And he did just that at 4/5 odds.

Next came the second pick from Churchill with Summer Revolution in their fourth - a claiming event going a one-turn mile.  He was first off the claim for Roberto Diodoro and had run well at this configuration and over this track.  Pulled away as the 3/2 favorite to win by as many as he pleased for my FIFTH winner of the day, wow.

I then made what turned out to be a very wise decision.  As I noted the winnings on Summer Revolution I looked at the remainder of the selections from Louisville.  I read through my comments and thought to myself, "I think I tried to make the bet fit me rather than letting the bet come to me as the best horse in the race."  Decided to pass the remainder of the card.  Well played Mr. Mark - would have run 6th, 2nd and 4th.  The final bet at Gulfstream was a late running second as the 3/2 favorite and the other races off the turf didn't provided anyone I liked.  The one dirt race where my top choice scratched I considered the second choice/selection but decided - like Churchill - that I'd put him second because I didn't think he'd win.  He didn't, third as the 7/5 favorite.  So for the day I had eight selections and won with five, second with the other two.  Not a bad day at all!

Friday May 22
I said to Kim at the end of the day how different some days and weeks are is interesting to me.  A couple of weeks ago I headed into the weekend with eight wins; then last weekend I had just three.  But today was very much like yesterday.  Considered playing Churchill again but the free past performances from Brisnet didn't have the program numbers or odds (even this morning) so I tossed that idea and stayed local.  Much like yesterday we were off the turf for the first half of the card but were able to stay on the grass for the second half.  In the opener I'd made Gloriously the second choice on turf but top pick on the main.  She was making her first start for a tag and the one-turn mile figured to suit her as a daughter of BC Classic champion Mucho Macho Man.  Quickly took over under Irad Ortiz and wire the field as much the best in spite of going :45 and change for the opening half mile.

Was second at a big 6/1 in the third and then in the fourth, another off-the-turf event...this one at a mile and a sixteenth around two turns I went with Morning Stride who'd had three off-the-turf events (at least showing in the pp's).  I was against the predicted ML favorite and indeed the crowd saw it the way I did and made 'Stride the heavy 3/5 chalk.  Swooped by to the front on the far turn and won going away, in hand for my second winner.  Missed on the next three - 10th at 5/2, 2nd at 3/5 when right to the front in a turf sprint and couldn't hold on, and third at 3/1 when chasing a loose on the lead front running favorite (interesting when I HAVE the favorite loose on the lead I can't hang on but when I am chasing...."  The tenth was my final bet of the day and Dillon Rocks was Ron Nicoletti's BEST BET in a two-liffetime one mile turf claimer.  On the negative, he was 1-for-16 overall, ouch, and 1-for-10 on the turf.  Double ouch.  BUT, in his two back race he won his maiden event and last time against $20K 2L he ran a near identical figure.  His Beyers towered over all but one and that one chased him five lengths behind last time out.  On the drop, paired figures that beat everyone in the field AND Irad Ortiz....duh.  MUCH the best.

And so I closed out the second day of the week with a 6/3-2-1 record.

Saturday May 23:  Matt Winn Stakes Day at Churchill Downs
I briefly considered not playing Churchill Downs today but I'm so glad I did as I had a wonderful day in Louisville while adding a couple of winning picks from Gulfstream to the list.  The first win of the day came in the Churchill opener where Golden Notion was trying to break his maiden in his sixth try.  That's not good.  BUT all thirty-four speed figures, ALL of the numbers of his rivals couldn't beat ANY of his five numbers.  Still as they ran through the stretch he was dueling with a 60/1 runner and couldn't seem to put him away and when he did a double-digit closer was coming......held on.

Came right back and while it wasn't a big payoff it was the whole handicapping story that made the pick so very satisfying.  The second at Gulfstream was a maiden claiming event and the first thing to leap off the page was that NO ONE had run this one-turn mile distance previously except two runners who'd faced each other last time out.....

And here was the thing that caught my eye.  First, in that race Macho d'Oro had run by Voicesinthedarknez last time yet somehow the former was a longer priced horse.  And then I noted the pace code of the race.....it was a shaded "S" indicating the track had very much favored speed that day.  And check it out.....'Voices had been ON THE PACE with the bias, and in spite of that 'Macho had run him down - and he was the longer price?  DUH.  with a fair track he'd be an easy winner I thought.  Well, the running of the race is just another example of why racing is such a great game.  With all this in hand, and the money on the late running Macho d'Oro, the gates opened and it was Macho d'Oro who went to the front and Voicesinthedarknez who sat mid-pack then rallied late.  But too little, too late to catch my top pick.  Had to laugh out loud that I HAD the winner, but the logic had been ALL WRONG.  Quackity quack along the railroad track!!!

Missed on the next two before we went to the post for the fourth in Hallandale Beach.  Witch Hunter had just missed as the prohibitive 1/5 favorite last time out behind a 30/1 lone speed.  Today I figured that this wouldn't happen for a couple of reasons.  First new jockey Edgard Zayas would almost assuredly have her closer to the pace today and second, and the real standout angle, was that today she was first off the claim for trainer Victor Barboza who's got unworldly numbers with those....winning at an amazing 53% first off the claim.  YOWZA.  Stalked near the pace to the turn, took over and opened up in mid-stretch to win going away.

Missed on the next four before it was time for the BET of the Day.  Last year Chad Brown had several stars, but one was 3yo Dunbar Road.  She was so highly regarded that off a maiden win she was favored in the Gr 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks.  She'd finished a late running second that day but had scored two Gr 1 wins later in the summer.  This marked her 4yo debut but she looked strong in the $100K Shawnee Stakes at a mile and a sixteenth.  The question was some of the competition had strong resumes, most especially She's A Julie who was also a Gr 1 winner AND had won previously at Churchill Downs.  I figured Mr. Chad would have Dunbar Road ready for a big effort, and she did not disappoint.  Came from mid-pack on the turn and in spite of a moderate pace she ran down the leaders by mid-stretch and pulled away without really being asked for her very best.  WHOOOO HOOOOO.

Missed at Gulfstream and then came the $100K Tepin Stakes at Churchill.  I thought Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf champion Sharing was a very likely favorite as was the unbeaten Alms.  But the former had won the BC at nearly 15/1 odds so apparently BEFORE that big race she wasn't assumed to be a major star; and Alms had yet to beat strong company, I thought.  Meanwhile Abscond had won a Gr 1 at Woodbine last fall before being well back in the BC, but with an excuse.  She'd run twice here at Gulfstream this winter.  The first time she had major issues at the break and in the second, as my choice, she'd tried to catch a loose-on-the-lead front runner.  I thought today with a legitimate pace she had an upset chance at 8/1.  She was FLYING at a big 11/1 price and missed by less than half a length to Sharing.  Great bet, no cashed ticket.  Next up was the second of my "price plays," the Blame Stakes which was being used as a prep for the Grade 1 Stephen Foster.  Not really sure what the thinking there was because today's event was at a one-turn mile that the Foster is a two-turn nine furlong test, but what ever.  Several in the field looked like they COULD win.  But what struck me was how many of them appeared to want to be up close.  To me that said "hot pace and melt down, look for a closer."  I've always been a fan of Owendale and he IS a closer.  As the field hit the far turn the half mile split was :45 and change and I knew that the pace flow was exactly what I'd hoped for, but Owendale was still next to last more than half a dozen from the front, but he was beginning to pick off horses.  He swung wide into the lane and still with a furlong to go he had a lot of ground to make up.  But by this time you could tell, he was FLYING and if the long stretch in Louisville was long ENOUGH he had a real chance.  Inside the final fifty yards he was third, gaining with every stride.....UP IN TIME!  YESSSSS.

Owendale - sooooo close, but up in time

He paid a nice $9 for a $2 investment so I cashed for nearly $50.  Missed at GP and then it was time for the featured Grade 3 Matt Winn Stakes for 3yo at Churchill.  With the Derby now the first Saturday in September this event was being used as a Derby points prep.  And this works in favor of the highly regarded Maxfield.  Off a win in the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland he'd been the favorite for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall.  But the week of the race he had a minor issue and was taken out of the race and had been brought along slowly.  Most of the 2yo "stars" from last fall have all been disappointments and the current Derby points leaders are all horses who've arrived on the scene since January.  So that was a strike against him.  But, if as good as the press clippings, and if you believed the connections who were very high on his chances today, then you might get a fair price for one of the 3yo division leaders.  He, like Dunbar Road, sat mid-pack to the turn, had to go wide into the lane and caught the leaders a furlong out.  A three-way duel ensued but inside the final 100 yards he eased clear under a hand ride.

The final race of the day was a 3yo turf event and I went with a runner who was still 0-for on the turf but had come close here at Gulfstream.  Didn't run a lick, but for the day I finished with another good day with a record of 17/6-3-1.....I'll take it any day of the week!

Sunday May 24
Well, we just got the one day of reprieve from the rains as it was pouring again today for the start of racing.  Fortunately I'd looked ahead at the weather forecast and for all the scheduled turf events I had alternate, main track analysis ready to go.  The opener - scheduled for the turf had two main track only runners that both figured.  The preferred and logical favorite did NOT have a "name" rider and that was an issue for me.  I almost wavered when he was hammered at the windows but just couldn't do it.  When he was struggling at the top of the lane I smiled, but then he got up in time at 3/5 odds.  Not for me.  The second was a complete pass; in the third we were off the turf and I wrote in my analysis, "....there are only seven in here and I think if moved to the dirt we'd be looking at a three horse field which will help Renaisance Frolic go wire to wire...."  How prophetic am I....a three horse field and it was just oh-so-obvious that only Renaisance Frolic would want the lead.  Right to the front and even though I thought he went too fast, he was well within himself and he just walked with it.  Considering he was the ONLY speed in a three horse field, the fact he was a generous 4/5 was amazing.

I had tripled the bet and collected nearly $25.  Considered playing the 4th, a MSW sprint but just didn't feel confident in the first time starters being bet.  My third choice won at 6/1.  The fifth was another sprint, this a non-winners of three lifetime and right off the bat Man With A Plan caught my eye.  Why?  Because he was CLAIMED by Todd Pletcher!  In all my years of handicapping I can only MAYBE think of that happening once.  Was a concern that after being haltered for $35K he was now in for a mere $8K, and conditioned company.  But all eleven of his rivals had either lost multiple times in 3L or just exiting a 2L win.  Right to the front and was clear in the lane.  Drifted out and the closest pursuer looked to run up on his heels, then he drew off with authority.  The objection light went on and they looked at it multiple times.  Seen worse dismissed and less resulting in a DQ....no change :)  HORRAY!

Two-for-two to start the day.  Missed with the 4/5 favorite in an off-the-turf 5f sprint in the 6th and was even money but 6th in a dull effort with a Pletcher acquisition from NY in the 7th.  The final play of the day came in the 9th, an entry level allowance going a mile and a sixteenth.  The only question was if the favorite, the red-hot Blue Buff could continue to produce.  He was on a three race roll where he'd aired in first a maiden event, then a claiming event, then a starter event....all the while going from sprint, to one-turn mile to this mile and a sixteenth trip.  My main concern wasn't that he wasn't good enough, but with an off-the-pace style could he run down the leaders over a wet and what I thought was a speed-favoring surface.  In the end I not only thought he could but upped the bet.  He came with a blitz approaching the far turn.  Swung five wide and swept to the front and continued on to the wire to win in what looked closer than it actually was.

No bet in the final two races and so for the day I finished a solid 3-for-5 with a third place finish.

Monday May 25:  Memorial Day
Heading into today I've had a REALLY good run.  And while I had more confidence than normal in the selections for today I couldn't help but wonder if the numbers weren't about to even out.  And that's basically what happened.  Two Todd Pletcher odds-on favorites failed to produce and most of the others at Gulfstream didn't run their race.  It was ironic that after missing in the first two I'd originally planned to pass the third, but for her Early Pick 5, hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney had her single in here.  And to be fair, the main threat to my top choice was an MTO who scratched.  So I doubled the bet on Notsosubtle and he ran away.  First win, on a bet I hadn't planned to make.  Go figure.

Got the final of two wins at Gulfstream in the7th when class dropper Ms Meshak was running for a tag.  That was the issue as she'd last won in a stakes.  But if she was even 85% right she'd win for fun.  She did run an "A" level race and was tons the best.

Would have been the end of the day but I had handicapped the Santa Anita card as they had three big stakes today.  In their third Bob Baffett's Message went too fast on the front end and was 2nd as the 9/5 choice.  In the fourth it just seemed like one of those "it's in the stars" picks.  Kelani Kim (my wife's name) was the lone class dropper in the field and the apparent lone speed.  And her trainer Mark (my name) Glatt was 6-for-9 with MSW to MC since January of 2019.  Duh, hello.  Right to the front and never had to take a deep breath.

Right after they crossed the wire we headed out to the Yardhouse Restaurant for a family dinner, so good to be out and about.....

Got back and watched my last four picks.  The first was the Grade 2 Monrovia going five and a half furlongs on the turf....used to be 6 1/2 down the hillside, oh I miss those races.  Jolie Olimpica had suffered her first loss last time out going long and I thought she'd be tough today.  Rated off the pace by Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith.  Made the winning move at the furlong pole and he timed it just right as she went by the leader in time to win but not too early to give the closers a chance.  I'd tripled the bet and cashed for nearly $30.

In the final three races I was 2nd at 3/5 with a Baffert firster; then was third at 2/1 in the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile when Chad Brown's Without Parole had all kinds of traffic problems.  The "other Brown" And in the final race, the Grade 1 Gamely my Chad Brown pick was too far back and really never involved.  So for the day I was 2-for-6 (with two seconds and a third) at Santa Anita....can't complain there.  But only 9/2-1-3 at GP.  Still, for the week:

Memorial Day Week Racing Highlights

The last thing I'll add....because it is MY journal and this is about MY life.....on Monday evening we had the local CBS news on and my favorite anchor Laura Pastrana was hosting.  She is nearly always the morning anchor.  I tweeted out to her and she answered later.  Then on Tuesday she was back in the anchor chair.  So I reached out to her again, asking if she preferred to have the later shift in the studio or was it more convenient to broadcast from home early in the morning.  Within two minutes, while still on the air she replied.  To me that is very cool :)

Opening Weekend At Churchill Downs

May 14 - 17

I have to admit that it wasn't until the Tuesday following the extended weekend of racing that I realized I'd had an awfully good week of handicapping.  I just had the sense, after winning just three races total over the first two days, that it was an "ok" week of handicapping results.  But I was glad that on Saturday I had the option of playing more than just Gulfstream.  Churchill Downs opened on Saturday and Santa Anita opened on Friday.  And next weekend there will be multiple stakes races at both of those venues, so it will be a more "normal" weekend of selections.  Let's see how this week played out.

Thursday May 14

The week kicked off with a sunny day and I was most happy that my sister Laurie and niece Khloe opted to fly down for two weeks.  We certainly can use some "outside human contact."  I felt badly for them however because the weather forecasts called for a lot, A LOT of rain beginning tomorrow.  But for today we enjoyed the great weather and the fast & firm courses at Gulfstream.  I passed the opener and then, against my better judgement - again - I played a 2yo race only to see my pick run second at 3/1 odds.  In the third it was a turf sprint with a claiming tag for straight three-year-olds.  The race looked to come down to either Sea Lover or Bahamian Prince.  Sea Lover came from the Timothy Hamm barn who has wintered at Tampa but appears to be shifting to the east coast.  And Sea Lover was unbeaten in two starts.  After going wire to wire on the dirt to break his maiden he moved into an allowance turf sprint.  He set torrid fractions and then held on for his second win.  On either surface today he was the pick.  A nearly identical race to his first two resulted.....right to the front at 9/5 odds, on the turn the 7/5 Bahamian Price came to him and they dueled to the 16th pole before he edged clear.  

My selections in the next two races scratched out.  In the 6th I knew I was "hoping" that Todd Pletcher's debut runner would run well because he was debuting in a big field on the grass, but it was a worthy gamble to make some money.  Too far back, 7th at 9/2.  Rand second at a big 7/1 in the seventh race.  I was surprised in the 9th and featured that Bronx Beauty was a non-threatening fourth.  But to be fair he was checked on the backstretch.  In the finale it was another turf event and it looked to be all Cookie Cove.  As I noted in my analysis, it's either Cookie Cove or a "go figure" result.  Had to be concerned with the 0-for-8 resume, but I thought you could reasonably toss five of those.  His best efforts came when on or pressing the lead and with the rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz I thought he'd get that.  Right to the front and never looked back as the easiest of winners.

Friday May 15

Just as hottie weather girl Erika Delgado predicted, the rains came today.  Well, actually they started overnight and continued through most of the day today.  It was sloppy going so all the races came off the inner course but I still liked Gran Old Par who's made his career debut in an off-the-turf sprint at Tampa.  Looked to be the clear speed of the race....on the drop and with the "Minister of Speed," Emisael Jaramillo up.  Sure enough - he was the speed of the speed, but had to duel through the turn through wicked fractions before getting clear.  But that cost him late as he was run down to be fourth as the 1-2 favorite.  In the third we were going two turns, a mile and a sixteenth, on the main track.  With the short tun to the first turn, the inside draw for likely favorite Gauzy would mean, I thought a ground saving trip.  Liked that he'd never been on the grass, so the move to the main track made him even more attractive.  Add in Irad Ortiz and it's a "duh" selection.  Ortiz demonstrated again why he's the top rider in the country as he saved ground to the far turn, got his horse into the clear and let him run free to the wire as easily best.  I'd tripled the bet to make him the "best" of the day.  Unfortunately it was the lone win of the day.  Top pick scratched out of the fourth and passed the fifth.  In the sixth it was a one-turn mile maiden claimer.  I liked Speedy Hans at a fair price.  All but one of his races were sprints, and he showed a patient tracking trip when going two turns at Churchill Downs.  With Ortiz up I thought he'd get a good ride and have a big chance.  Left the gate at a strong 5/1 and pressed the pace in an ideal spot, though a bit wide.  But when asked to kick on to the wire he had nothing left and faded to seventh.  In the seventh "Main Track Only" Paola's Team looked like a standout and everyone agreed as she was the heavy favorite until late in the betting.  In the last three minutes or so the betting money came pouring in on the "other" top choice and those two went at it on the turn, but she was no match and was a well beaten second under the wire.  Passed the next two and then we got a rare stakes event, The Hollywood Wildcat going a mile and a sixteenth.  Obviously the most talented and accomplished 3yo filly in here was Tonalist Shape, but her one bad effort came at this two turn trip.  Granted the field was a lot less today, but I was willing to take a shot on a filly who'd been visually impressive in three straight outings, Up In Smoke.  Left the gate at 5/2 but was never really in it as the favorite, Tonalist Shape dominated.  And the day ended when my pick scratched out of the finale.  We topped off the day by ordering Chinese take-out and posed for a photo op on the pool deck.

Saturday May 16:  Opening Day At Churchill Downs
I was surprised that Gulfstream had THREE stakes today and I had multiple picks, so I was content playing just GP and Churchill.  But was very disappointed when the live stream came up from Louisville that it was raining and we were off the turf.  But today was an "interesting" day at the races, but one that provided some real highlights.  In the Gulfstream opener, taken off the turf going a mile and a sixteenth there were two runners that appeared the most likely winners.  I had a minimum play on the 5/1 third choice who was a non-threatening eighth, but I was alive in the Early Pick 3 with the other who wired the field at 2/1 odds. Descente.  In the third race, a starter allowance going a demanding seven furlongs I thought Saffie Joseph's Moonstone was the "right one."  She'd dueled into the turn, got clear and then was run down by the white-hot Flat Awesome Jenny.  Today I thought she'd be long gone.  My only concern is if there was a speed duel, so on the Pick-3 ticket I played her with the logical closer, Solitary Gem.  Sure enough, cooked on the front end, but the closer - who went off favored - blew by to win for fun.

So heading into the fourth today I was already 0-for-3 (having lost the first bet at Churchill) on straight win bets.  So the P3 came down to my single here, a maiden claiming event going six furlongs.  Panarea I thought was a stand out based on her first career start when third to Tonalist's Shape - who'd now won six of seven including a pair of graded stakes at the Championship Meet and yesterday's Hollywood Wildcat Stakes.  She was down in class today to a level where she was a just-miss second while five clear of the show.  She was third off the shelf with the best figures in the field.  Sent off as the prohibitive 3/5 favorite she pressed the leader to the turn, dueled into the lane and took over.  Challenged, she got about half a length in front when the 7/1 stalker would not take NO for an answer and they hit the wire nearly  simultaneously.  At first glance I thought I'd won, but watching the slow-motion replays it was really too hard to tell.  The photo examination took the longest time, and I was ready to be "ok" with a Dead Heat so I'd at least not lose, then the official announcement, it WAS Panarea by the narrowest of margins....

Suddenly I've had the winner in three of four races, cashed a Pick 3 and a triple investment WIN bet and I'm ahead for the day.  Gotta love racing.  Next up was the fourth at Churchill, a one-turn mile under allowance conditions.  Normally, just another race, but no....this marked the return to the track of champion 2018 three-year-old Monomoy Girl.  She'd not been seen since winning the 2018 Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Distaff as my prime time play in early November, here at Churchill Downs when Kim and I had been joined by Keith, Sue & Dan for the weekend.  She boasted a record of ten wins from twelve starts and one of those losses had come via DQ in the Grade 1 Cotillion in one of the most egregious disqualifications in the history of the sport.  Today you wouldn't fault her for not being primed for a big shot because you KNOW she's got bigger targets down the road, but I've also found with such superstars boasting such records the connections are not going to readily accept a blemish just to "get one under her belt," so I anticipated a big effort.  She was between horses and had no where to run heading into the turn.  But then a seam opened for jockey Florent Geroux to get her to the outside and make "the move."  She accelerated with ease to the front.  For the briefest of moments I wondered if she would accelerate away as she didn't immediately open up.  But then she switched leads and ran away as easily, EASILY the best.  Watch the highlight video at the bottom of the page - it was cool that someone filmed the stretch run live - with the massive grandstand completely empty - and you get the feeling that I was actually there to watch the race.  Monomoy Girl was the BET of the Weekend and lived up to the billing.

I thought that the 1-2 odds were very generous as I cashed out for $45.  Right back in the fifth at Gulfstream where the race was a 7f entry level allowance - originally scheduled to go 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf around two turns, this now played into the hands of Glass Ceiling, a "Main Track Only" runner.  Off since January and stepping up a notch in class I thought she was clearly the one to beat.  Right to the front and handled very confidently throughout as she breezed home much the best at even money odds.

Unfortunately that did it for the day at Gulfstream in terms of straight up WIN bets.  In the 6th, the Roar Stakes for sophomores going 6 1/2 furlongs Green Light Go was the 3/5 choice and he was making what looked to be a winning move between horses when the unofficial winner veered into his path and he had to check.  No INQUIRY sign so the rider objected and they looked at it....seen worse and less go both ways.  No change.  Sigh.  Scratched out in the seventh.  Then in the eighth I ran 3rd at 7/2 but in the Pick-3 I didn't have the 5/1 winner.  But in the next two legs I correctly selected the 11/1 upset winner of the off-the-turf Powder Break Stakes in Jakarta and the wire-to-wire 3/1 winner of the Musical Romance in Lady's Island.  Chalk up two more "wins" on the stat sheet, but I didn't cash the Pick-3.  The payout for the $0.50 investment I'd made was over $225, and you have to figure it would have been a touch less since my pick in the first leg was 7/2 and the winner was 5/1.  But it would have been a nice one.  Sigh.....

In the midst of that sequence the seventh at Churchill Downs was a Maiden Special going six furlongs.  Bill Mott is long known for NOT having his horses ready at first asking, so when they run big, you pay attention next time out.  Say Moi had run a big second to Chad Brown's ultra impressive winner at Gulfstream, earning an 80 Beyer.  Figured tough in here.  Pressed to the top of the lane and took over like she'd run away.  Opened up by four lengths but started to get tired in the final 16th.  Too late for anyone to catch her and I cashed for more than $25 on my last winner of the day.

Thought I had one more when John Velazquez took another Mott runner, Miss T Too right to the front and was clear at 5/1, only to be caught in the final fifty yards.  Closed out the day at Gulfstream when the favorite looked to be either the winner, or a "go figure."  Right to the front at even money, long gone, until not when caught in the final fifty yards as well.  Sigh.....

Sunday May 18
Today saw me ring up the winners, and I don't know how you'd have "fixed" the problem that arose that cost me some winnings, but at least I cashed.  The stories from today......I was a smart fellow when I passed the opener, a 5f turf sprint taken off as was the fourth today which was scheduled at a mile on the grass.  The later races, with the sunny early afternoon weather were on the green.  In the second I had the 6/5 favorite who took the lead into the lane but was caught late by a 24/1 upsetter.  Again, smart to NOT play the early double or use this race in a Pick 3.  I did play a P3 for races 3-thru-5 however.  In the third it was a $35K claiming sprint for sophomores and you could make a case for all of them on their "A" game.  So could you make a strong enough case that one of them was more likely to run that race than the others?  I thought so with R U Lucky who had won two back against stronger $50K claimers for trainer Saffie Joseph.  The problem with him was what to make of his last race when very dull?  Well, take your pick...the move to allowance company, the four wide trip, or the big effort in the previous race - or all three.  Off the shelf today with hot-riding Irad Ortiz AND a bullet work.  Pressed the pace to the top of the lane and edged clear for the win.  I'd singled him in the Pick 3 - I'm ALIVE!

The fourth was now off-the-turf, a maiden special going a mile and a sixteenth and my second choice on the turf had been Todd Pletcher's Unrighteous who had big numbers but had not ever been on the grass.  With the move to the main track he was a standout to me.  The only "problem" was he was drawn wide with the run to the first turn but I figured he'd get over relatively soon.  Nope.  Was four or five wide through the first turn and all the way down the backstretch until Ortiz made his move.  Closed in on the leaders entering the far turn and was "only" three wide.  Got to the front turning for home and for a couple of strides you wondered if the trip had taken it's toll but then he let it out a notch and ran away as easily best....and I was alive into the final leg of the Pick 3.

Back to a regularly scheduled main track event, a non-winners of two lifetime on the main going a one-turn mile.  I thought this race was very much like the previous - it was either going to be one of the top two favorites, Geonosis and Red Flag, or it was a "go figure" kind of race.  The problem was, both had "issues" to go with their positive angles.  Geonosis had the rail, looked fast and forwardly placed, and had the best figures.  BUT, all the best figures came in one-turn sprints and his lone try at this one-turn mile was a disaster.  Red Flag on the other hand had more turf races than dirt, but his last two numbers at this one-turn mile had earned figures within a couple lengths of the top one.  I played a small win bet on Geonosis and used both with the two singles in the Pick 3.  Right to the front with Geonosis and midway on the turn when Announcer Pete called, "and now the distance question will have to be answered," he ran away easily to win.  Cashed my third consecutive WIN ticket AND the Pick 3 ticket.

Next up was an entry level turf event that just had too many questions.  I had put on my analysis sheet that I'd play a Pick 3 but decided there were just too many variables and passed the race.  Good thing because the winner was an 11-1 upset.  In the seventh Todd Pletcher was sending out what looked like a prohibitive favorite in Sniper Shot.  After a debut win with a low figure he'd earn a big number for a second place try at Keeneland.  Off the shelf he was slated to face ultra-talented Hidden Scroll this winter but that one scratched at the gate and he ran big again.  Last time out he was a best of the rest second with a good number.  Today he was stretching from 7f to a mile and he just looked like CLEARLY the best runner.  He was the WIN play, and a triple investment.  For purposes of the Pick 3 I thought his stablemate, Legit was a fair gamble and another price play was tossed on a couple tickets, just in case.  He tracked a fast pace to the turn took over and opened up with a "YOWZA" kind of effort.  Ultra-impressive.

Cashed for $30 and he was on all five of my P3 tickets.  The 8th on the turf was a difficult race to decipher so I had five runners on my ticket.  Of them I liked two more than the others and had them on all five tickets, then had the others on two tickets in various combinations.  But right after the running of the Sniper Shot race it was announced that the race was coming off the turf.  With one race in the books there was no altering the ticket now.  And then the scratches started to mount up.  I don't know how they could have handled the situation, and not being a regular P3 player I don't know how it "typically" is handled.  But by the time they went to the post it was a 10 furlong dirt race with four runners instead of a twelve furlong three-turn turf race with eight runners.  I had three of the runners on my Pick 3 ticket and would "cash" on the scratches but if I'd been able to, with only four runners and with three of my horses scratched I obviously would have played an "ALL" ticket.  I honestly was surprised that this wasn't what was "given" as a consolation.  Because even for me, on the one ticket where I only had the top two runners, it seemed grossly unfair that I was "stuck" with two "live" horses going 10f on the dirt when I'd bet them for 12f on the grass.  But, what are you going to do.  You can guess...yes, I had three of the four covered and the other one won wire to wire.

My only hope now is to get one of the three runners in the final leg home so I get to cash the "consolation" Pick 3 tickets.  Todd Pletcher was sending out Spinoff in this the Sunday Silence Stakes going nine furlongs on the main track.  The race was named after Breeders' Cup Champion Sunday Silence who won the Breeders' Cup Classic in 1989 right here at Gulfstream over champion Easy Goer in an "epic" match.  We were there for that day, the first Breeders' Cup we'd ever been to and it was really, REALLY something.

For the purposes of the Pick 3 I also thought that if Spinoff got caught up in a speed duel or went too fast early both Just Whistle and You're To Blame could run him down.  The former I had on three of the tickets.  The latter on just one ticket.  And I had the rail horse who left the gate at 5/2 and the apparent lone speed on three tickets.  Played out as I thought and turning for home Spinoff took over.  But as he turned for home he lost several lengths when floating wide into the lane.  Now maybe that was strategic knowing that Just Whistle was gearing up with a late bid, or maybe it wasn't.  But in mid-stretch he caught him.  But then Spinoff edged clear again and I thought I was home.  But in the final fifty yards Just Whistle accelerated JUST enough to outfinish him and I lost the WIN bet but won the Pick 3.

Lost money on the total play because of two of the tickets did not have scratched horses - not right - but I was thankful to cash the ticket non-the-less.  Passed the 10th when moved to the main track and the same with the finale.  But all afternoon I kept going back and forth about the featured Grade 3 Desert Stormer at Santa Anita.  I hadn't handicapped the race (or purchased the Daily Racing Form Past Performances) but I knew Bellafina SHOULD win.  She would have been an automatic bet except the few public handicappers I found picks from had mixed feelings and liked the upset candidates.  Finally right before the featured Sunday Silence I made the choice to play the race.  Bellafina had been out fourteen times with six wins and was a multiple Grade 1 winner.  BUT, she'd faltered many times as the favorite.  Three weeks ago she was a strong "play against" when running at Oaklawn in the Carousel Stakes.  Why?  Because at Santa Anita she had started six times with four wins and two seconds - and both of those seconds had come in Gr 1 events behind top horses.  ALL of her losses that were not 2nd place finishes had come out of town.  Now she was home, with a race under her belt - which, because of the pandemic suspending racing in So Cal, none of the others had.  So I made the bet.  We were playing cards when they went into the gate and I watched it live on TVG.  Stalked the pace to the turn and ran away.  Oh I'm so smart :)

Cashed for nearly $30 to close the day.  And as I started this journal entry, it wasn't until Monday that I actually went through the stats for the week.  And oh my, what a week it was:

May 14-17 Racing Highlights

Two last items.....a new "thing" on Facebook this weekend was creating your own "avatar," so of course I joined in with several of my FB pals :)

And finally, maybe just MAYBE this pandemic thing is winding down.  It was announced this week that beginning on Monday Broward County and Miami-Dade County could join the rest of the state and begin to "open up" under the guidelines given by the state of Florida.  One of those was that restaurants would open with occupancy capped at 50% and social distancing.  So we made dinner reservations for Monday evening and the four of us went to the Sawgrass Mills Mall to have dinner at the Rainforest Cafe....like REAL people :)