April 30 - May 3
This SHOULD have been Kentucky Derby Weekend with the big Kentucky Oaks card on Friday and the even bigger Kentucky Derby Day card on Saturday. But with the continuing restrictions in place due to the pandemic the Derby weekend will not be held the first weekend in September. But good for Oaklawn Park for stepping up and moving their Arkansas Derby weekend to the first weekend in May with the Fantasy Stakes on Friday for the fillies, and supporting stakes underneath, and the Arkansas Derby on Saturday, again with supporting stakes on the undercard. You can judge the success of the move on many levels but on numbers alone.....the biggest previous handle for a single day at Oaklawn was $16 million on a Rebel Stakes Day a few years ago. The Saturday card - drew over $41 MILLION in wagering. Filled a huge void for true racing fans and the bettors came out and supported in with both hands. Here's how the week unfolded for me......
Thursday April 30
Got to love the racing game. Last Thursday, and Friday I had four wins on each day and headed into the big stakes weekend already having scored eight times. Not so much this week. I had several selections today and started off with a 2nd when the 8/5 favorite, Cardiac Kid took over turning for home and was caught by the third choice in mid-stretch. The 2nd was the third 2yo race of the season and it was a maiden claiming event. I planned to go against the Wesley Ward runner but in the end I didn't have a lot of confidence to make a straight-up win bet so I played a double ticket with four juveniles tied to my "best of the day" in the third. Last week BOTH Ward runners shot out of the gate but were caught late. Today Sunshine City came from well off the pace to be up in time as the favorite.
As I wrote in my in my analysis, it was hardly a "free bingo square" but it would be hard to imagine anyone beating Monmouth Dr in the third. Granted, it was a $6.25K non-winners of two lifetime claimer going a one-turn mile and anything CAN happen in a horse race but....the three runners in the program who were single digit odds were: a last out maiden winner who'd finally scored in his ninth try, a 1-for-12 runner who'd lost five in a row vs. cheap 2L rivals (twice at THIS level) and the second choice who "boasted" a lifetime record of 28/1-7-6. Ouch. The top pick had only been out seven times and hit the board in three of them. Scored in a maiden $30K at Belmont and it was easy to toss three of the four most recent tries. The two back try vs. $12.5K 2L runners was at this one-turn mile and he earned a 72 Beyer which would win by the length of the stretch today. He was a just-miss 2nd that afternoon. Top rider Irad Ortiz took the call. Shortly before the third the monsoons opened up and you could hardly tell if the field was away and who was who until they hit the far turn. Then my top choice, Monmouth Dr swooped to the front and quickly opened up. LONG GONE as the prohibitive favorite and I had both my first win of the week and a Daily Double score.
I was disappointed when I noted in my analysis for the fourth that I'd take a long look at my pick even if it came off the turf. Decided against and he won at $11.40. Missed in the fifth at 4/5 when wide. Did have a second later in the day at 3/2 odds but no more winners.
Friday May 1
The page turned to a new month today. But the results for the day were as uninspiring as yesterday only times two. That's because it was Fantasy Stakes Day at Oaklawn and that series of selections produced a 0-for day with three second place finishes on the day, including with the Best of the Day in the Gr 3 Fantasy where Venetian Harbor suffered her first loss when caught in the shadow of the wire by the winner of the Gr 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. As for the day at Gulfstream the rains from Thursday afternoon led to all but two late-afternoon races coming off the grass and leading to a loss of several of my selections. My lone win on the day came in the fifth where I originally had a strong play at Gulfstream with Louie's Kingdom....check my analysis:
Louie won? NO! He scratched and unlike most races where I would just go on to pass the event I re-read through the above analysis and went with Awesome Action. He set out on the lead and was pressured from the gate into the lane when he was able to get some separation. But that came as a price as the closers made their run. But he dug in gamely and scored
The one loss that haunted me today came in the lone turf bet of the day. Dalarna renewed her rivalry with High Noon Rider. Those two squared off at the beginning of the spring season and I thought the pace set up nicely for High Noon Rider. She came rolling at a nice $11+ payoff and triggered a big Pick 3 and Daily Double score. But today it looked like Dalarna - who was drawn on the rail - would be in complete control of the pace. I went with her. A longshot set out on a suicide mission and set a :45 half mile pace which would set up High Noon Rider if Dalarna moved too soon. She did. Sigh... And finally in the 9th Snap Hook was everyone's single and my BEST BET. Right out of the gate you could tell he just wasn't going to run today. Badly beaten fifth.
Saturday May 2: Arkansas Derby Day
First post at Oaklawn was at noon CST which meant 1 pm Eastern so the races alternated all day. Lost in the first two at GP before the second at Oaklawn which was a Maiden Special for 3yo fillies. It was a big field and anything could happen with these kind of lightly raced sophomores. But on paper it looked like Steve Asmussen's debuting Scolding was solid. She'd drawn a big $475K sales bid and had been working lights out at her Houston base before shipping here for one last work. She was hand ridden from the gate to the top of the lane while "dueling" with another front runner. Jockey Carlos Santana never moved and she opened up on her own. When asked at the furlong pole she blew open the race and won geared down in an ultra-impressive fashion. Look for her in stakes action down the road.
Missed at GP and in Arkansas before winning my second event in Hot Springs. It was another maiden special sprint, but this one was for 3 and up colts. The race looked to me to go strictly through Bank who ran well in a sprint debut last fall at Keeneland. You could toss the two-turn experiment at Churchill and that led you to his 3yo debut when he earned a field best Beyer figure of 78 making his first start on the barn change to Steve Asmussen. He sat mid-pack to the turn, began moving the smartly was held in the two-to-three path instead of going wide, then shot between horses and was J-U-S-T up on the wire. Exciting race.
Missed with three straight - two at GP - before winning, again, at Oaklawn. On March 7th when at Gulfstream I was also playing Santa Anita and had been struck by a maiden special event where a first time starter was listed at 3/5 in the program....yes, first time starter at 3/5. Gamine had been a $1.8 Million sales grad and was training lights out for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. She walked with the race and looked stakes bound for sure. But - and especially with the Oaks now in the Fall - Baffert took the conservative approach and sent her here in this allowance test. She figured to be odds on and only had one logical rival who'd have to run the race of her life. Speech had run Beyers that put her in the same ball park and could boast she was a best-of-the-rest 2nd to star filly Donna Veloce who is now a graded winner after losing the BC Juvenile Fillies in her second career start in a photo finish to a two-time graded stakes winner. Gamine broke right on top and was home free, apparently turning for home. But at the furlong pole Speech began to gain with every stride and with 100 yards to go seemed on even terms with all the momentum, but demonstrating the kind of special talent she is, Gamine said "NO" and dug in to edge clear by the narrowest of margins. THAT was a great race!
Finally picked up my first Gulfstream winner in the next bet. I thought that Saffie Joseph's Overdeliver looked very strong in the 8th, an entry level allowance going a one-turn mile. Filtering through his past performances you could see he was very effective in one-turn events and his last had seen him too far back early when closing to just miss. Irad Ortiz a 36% winner for Joseph and that conditioner is always strong with horses owed by Frank Calabrese. Until about five minutes to post time he was the short-priced favorite. But as we got closer to post time his odds started to float up a little. Today he tracked the pace through the far turn, slid outside into the clear and pushed past the favorite before drawing off as easily best. But the best part was his odds floated all the way up to 4/1, unbelievable. And I had tripled the bet so I was cashing for $60.
This in and of itself was exciting but I was very pumped with the price for another reason. I had played a Pick 3 with Overdeliver in the first leg and three horses in the upcoming Honey Rider Stakes and closed the sequence with my BEST BET of the Weekend. In the turf stakes which was the middle leg I had the favorite who was a single in the multi-race sequences for many she was exiting back-to-back graded stakes wins. My two other choices were the anticipated front runner who had earned a huge Beyer but on dirt and a longshot. That one was out of it but the pace setter was there turning for home. My top choice, Highland Glory had been checked in the first turn which cost her a spot or two but as a closer I wasn't out of it. She began weaving through traffic on the turn and had momentum but didn't have a clear path. Shifted paths and closed with a rush but couldn't catch the 17/1 winner who'd had smoothing sailing to the wire. So disappointed. Next up at Oaklawn Todd Pletcher's Fearless was going a mile and a sixteenth in an allowance test. He'd been ultra-impressive on Holy Bull Day at Gulfstream and was a troubled fourth in the Grade 2 New Orleans Handicap. For some reason today John Velazquez had him way, WAY back and his flying finish came up short. That led us to the BET of the Weekend. The 10th at Gulfstream was the Big Drama Stakes and it was really, REALLY difficult for me to look past Chad Brown's Network Effect. Here's the case I made for him.....Last time out he made his four-year-old debut off a three month layoff. He'd been a fast closing 2nd, just missing by half a length. His Beyer of 95 was a new career top and just a click above his two top 3yo numbers (93-94). All those numbers would require a career effort by his rivals to beat him. And you had to figure he'd improve today. But add this in....in that race comeback, he'd clipped heels at the start and was much farther back than he usually was. Uh oh, a clean trip and he's tons the best.
But wait....he'd won an open MSW at Saratoga to break his debut then ran second in two open, graded stakes. Today he dropped into this STATE-bred event out of open company. BIG TIME WOW..... As the race unfolded he was saving ground up close along the rail into the turn. But then three of them lined up and two others moved outside of him and he was pinned, blocked with no where to go at this critical juncture of the race. Too late to swing wide, or was it? And if he did, how much ground would he lose? Later when interviewed Irad Ortiz commented he knew he was sitting on a ton of horse and told himself to just be patient and wait for the opportunity. That came moments later as they spread across the track with heads turned for home. A slim opening appeared along the rail and Network Effect shot through. Now in the clear with nothing but clear race track in front of him he quickened noticeably and immediately distanced himself from the field.
Inside the final two hundred yards he was in hand and closed out the stakes win as much, MUCH the best, justifying my BIG BET of the Day! Cashed for $80 as he was triple the value I expected him to be in this restricted event. Looking for him in open and/or graded stakes next time out.
My pick was a "no show" in Gulfstream's English Channel bringing us to the first of the two divisions of the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. Kudos to Oaklawn for (a) splitting the race to allow all of the runners a shot at a big $500 purse in each division (was $750 for one field). And a big shout out to the Derby points committee for allowing BOTH divisions to earn full points towards the running of the 2020 Kentucky Derby. All of this was great news for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert because he'd been concerned about how to keep his two superstars apart as long as possible. You know either Charlatan or Nadal would have run in the Santa Anita Derby or perhaps the Bluegrass. But with no where else to run he was forced to run them both here. Would love to know how the "luck of the draw" led to the two of them being in different divisions. In the first division Charlatan had drawn the rail and that was the ONLY issue. He had only been out twice and both times cruised comfortably on the lead. Couldn't afford to break a step slowly or have his path cut off. But if clear, he looked to be LONG gone. His two starts had earned Beyers of 105 and 106, the two fastest figures by ANY three-year-old in 2020. What was also VERY interesting was the comparison of his career start to that of Triple Crown winner Justify. The latter debuted on February 18th in a MSW sprint and won with a 104 Beyer; Charlatan debuted on February 16th with a winning Beyer of 105. Justify made his second start in a one mile allowance around two turns on March 11th and won by daylight with a 101 Beyer; Charlatan went a two-turn mile on March 14th with a 106 Beyer as he drew off by 10 1/4 lengths. The third start for Justify was the winning Kentucky Derby. Here was Charlatan in the Gr 1 Arkansas Derby on the first Saturday in May. He broke sharply and I knew that was nearly the end of the race. But then the fractions came up....a wicked :22 and change for the opening quarter and :46 for the half, then 1:09 for six furlongs. That's WAY fast for a nine furlong test, but he looked oh-so-comfortable. On the turn the field began to make their move, but what leaped off the TV screen to me was how hard the other riders were working on their colts and how nearly motionless Martin Garcia was on Charlatan. Once he'd straightened into the stretch he shook the reins and the margin grew with each and every stride. Drew off as TONS the best. Sooooo talented. He may have won the Kentucky Derby had it been run today was my comment to my son Jeff.
Missed in the Gr 2 Oaklawn Handicap leading us to the second division of the Gr 1 Arkansas Derby. Baffert's Nadal had drawn into the "tougher" division, at least that was my opinion and one shared on the TVG broadcast as well. But having won the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes here a month ago in a truly courageous effort that showed he possesses a world of talent, he figured to be the favorite. But as the betting unfolded he was a lot shorter price than I thought (and the TVG analysts thought) he would be. About ten minutes out from post time there were two telling comments that were aired as part of the national broadcast. First, former trainer Simon Bray told the story that he'd seen Nadal work recently and thought it was interesting that that morning the exercise rider had kept Nadal well off the pace set by his workmate and then came flying by him late in the workout. He said Baffert often did that just in case a talented front runner found himself not on the lead. AND he shared how in 2015 another Baffert colt had come to the Arkansas Derby and found himself having to rate off the lead before running away.....that was American Pharoah (and we were there that day! Sure enough, into the first turn the winner of the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby shot to the front from his wide draw in post 11. Jockey Joel Rosario patiently let him go on with the lead and took Nadal in hand just to his outside. As they approached the far turn and the leader tried to take off under urging, Rosario barely moved his hands as Nadal cruised by confidently. Into the lane the field began to make up ground. The Gr 2 Tampa Bay Derby winner got within a length at the furlong pole but Nadal lengthened his stride and opened up to win as impressively if not more so than Charlatan. OK, so maybe HE would have won the Kentucky Derby today!
Finally, it was interesting that Churchill Downs and the Kentucky Derby ran a mythical Derby today which was featured on a three hour NBC telecast. The field of thirteen computer generated runners were all the winners of the Triple Crown. You could "bet" on the horses with your "bet" becoming a donation to fight the pandemic. As they came into the stretch it was a thrilling finish as called live by NBC horse racing announcer Larry Colmus and Secretariat - who I'd picked - won in a narrow decision.
Sunday May 3
So the results from Saturday were MUCH more like it. When I'd gone through the Sunday card I had found it difficult to find many runners who presented a good betting opportunity and in fact on the twelve race card I had six "PASS" races including four of the last five. The first two races did not present a great money-making opportunity, but it was a fairly solid bet that both favorites were going to win. In the opener I virtually guaranteed the favorite would be odds-on. The negatives were obvious for Etana.... she'd already lost seven times, the last four by a combined nearly SIXTY lengths. OH MY! Conversely, of the eighty combined starts by the rest of the field there was ONE figure that would beat her last five numbers. Oh. The 3yo Super Saver filly was dropping from MSW company all the way down to this $12.5K level for trainer Saffie Joseph with top rider Irad Ortiz on board. AND the blinkers were coming off, a 30% winning angle. As "Announcer Pete" called when the field was approaching the far turn, Etana IS a stretch runner, but she was completely and I mean COMPLETELY out of the TV picture. But as the field began to swing for home here she came. And she was gobbling up ground at a rate of two or three strides to one. By the 16th pole it wasn't a question of IF she'd when but simply by how much. Blew by and drew off handily at odds on.
In the second Candy Crushem looked to be a similar short price. Many of the same angles were in play.....class dropping, figure edge and Irad Ortiz on board. Trainer Monica McGooey was off to an 0-for-11 start this spring but that was somewhat offset by the sharp bullet work 'Candy had for today's start. Ortiz sat patiently off the speed to the turn, inhaled the top two and ran away as much the best to give me my second win in a row.
Missed in the third when my "Upset Special" went from 8/1 to 7/2 at post time and had no finish in a maiden claiming turf route. Passed the fourth and fifth before we got to the sixth. I thought Tournesol was deserving of a short price favoritism and she was being bet that way early on. She came off a very troubled outing, which the analysts talked a lot about and she was dropping in class. Fortunately for me both on-air analysts really liked the last-out maiden winner. For me, I kept thinking, "That's right, talk her up" because I'll take a class dropping runner who's run well vs. winners against a last out maiden nearly every time. As post time approached the odds began to climb for Tournesol. The race went nearly the way I'd envisioned it. The crucial moment came midway on the turn when both my filly and the favorite were behind runners and the riders had to decide where to go. Ortiz (who replaced Tyler Gaffalione early in the card when he called off his mounts for the rest of the day) opted to swing wide and forfeit the lengths while guaranteeing a clear run. The favorite opted to stay inside. Tournelsol had momentum and was getting to the leaders, about to run free when a seam opened and the favorite shot through. At the furlong pole they were on event terms and I was afraid the wide move would be be my downfall but I think the "class" of having experience against winners over a last out maiden was telling late and she edged clear. The final odds of 4/1 were a generous gift that guaranteed a winning day. Cashed for $50, whooo hooo.
Missed on the last two, but the story for Sunday was only half about winning three of six and scoring a profit. While listening to hottie Acacia Courtney and analyst Jason Blewitt go through the card it occurred to me that maybe I should play the Rainbow Pick 6. But the ticket I thought would likely win was a $900 investment - way too rich for my tastes. So I decided to look at a slightly toned down version of these same horses in a series of Pick-3 selections over Race 7-8-9, 8-9-10, 9-10-11, and 10-11-12. This would give me interest in watching all the races today. The numbers worked out to an investment of $131. That was not too high, but enough that I wondered how much it was worth it. I looked up the Pick-3 payoffs for Saturday for those sequences and I'd have made money by hitting just one or two of them, but there had been a 16/1 winner in the mix. Back and forth and finally I asked Kim. She suggested that since she was going to be spending money on a Girls' Getaway this weekend it would be a good way to spend some "play money." And she encouraged me to go for it. I said I wasn't sure yet - especially because a lot of the horses were NOT my own personal picks. I considered maybe I'd bet the first Pick 3 and see how it went. But as we got close to the sequences I decided not to play. Well, the winner of the first leg of the first race was a 20/1 winner and that would virtually guarantee I'd have made money. If only I'd gone with the "play the first one." I was almost hoping not to win the first set even though I had a pick (who didn't win). By the end of the day, I'd have cashed on ALL four of the tickets. My stunned reaction :(
I will say I regretted playing in general, especially the first one. But had I jumped in after that to play the last three I'd have invested $90 to win $50 profit. Nothing to sneeze at but that's not the return I'm looking for with a multi-race wager. Of course to have played them all I'd have come out nearly $350 ahead. And I will also add that when I made the final decision not to play I told myself I would look at this for next week if I'd have profited. So I'll look forward to this coming weekend with some degree of confidence. Oh....as for the Rainbow Pick 6 ticket....it paid $15,000. Event at that, not sure I'd have invested the $900 for that return, still. You can see the entire sequence of all the Pick 3 races on Sunday in the Gulfstream Highlight video below.
As I wrote in my in my analysis, it was hardly a "free bingo square" but it would be hard to imagine anyone beating Monmouth Dr in the third. Granted, it was a $6.25K non-winners of two lifetime claimer going a one-turn mile and anything CAN happen in a horse race but....the three runners in the program who were single digit odds were: a last out maiden winner who'd finally scored in his ninth try, a 1-for-12 runner who'd lost five in a row vs. cheap 2L rivals (twice at THIS level) and the second choice who "boasted" a lifetime record of 28/1-7-6. Ouch. The top pick had only been out seven times and hit the board in three of them. Scored in a maiden $30K at Belmont and it was easy to toss three of the four most recent tries. The two back try vs. $12.5K 2L runners was at this one-turn mile and he earned a 72 Beyer which would win by the length of the stretch today. He was a just-miss 2nd that afternoon. Top rider Irad Ortiz took the call. Shortly before the third the monsoons opened up and you could hardly tell if the field was away and who was who until they hit the far turn. Then my top choice, Monmouth Dr swooped to the front and quickly opened up. LONG GONE as the prohibitive favorite and I had both my first win of the week and a Daily Double score.
I was disappointed when I noted in my analysis for the fourth that I'd take a long look at my pick even if it came off the turf. Decided against and he won at $11.40. Missed in the fifth at 4/5 when wide. Did have a second later in the day at 3/2 odds but no more winners.
Friday May 1
The page turned to a new month today. But the results for the day were as uninspiring as yesterday only times two. That's because it was Fantasy Stakes Day at Oaklawn and that series of selections produced a 0-for day with three second place finishes on the day, including with the Best of the Day in the Gr 3 Fantasy where Venetian Harbor suffered her first loss when caught in the shadow of the wire by the winner of the Gr 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. As for the day at Gulfstream the rains from Thursday afternoon led to all but two late-afternoon races coming off the grass and leading to a loss of several of my selections. My lone win on the day came in the fifth where I originally had a strong play at Gulfstream with Louie's Kingdom....check my analysis:
Louie won? NO! He scratched and unlike most races where I would just go on to pass the event I re-read through the above analysis and went with Awesome Action. He set out on the lead and was pressured from the gate into the lane when he was able to get some separation. But that came as a price as the closers made their run. But he dug in gamely and scored
The one loss that haunted me today came in the lone turf bet of the day. Dalarna renewed her rivalry with High Noon Rider. Those two squared off at the beginning of the spring season and I thought the pace set up nicely for High Noon Rider. She came rolling at a nice $11+ payoff and triggered a big Pick 3 and Daily Double score. But today it looked like Dalarna - who was drawn on the rail - would be in complete control of the pace. I went with her. A longshot set out on a suicide mission and set a :45 half mile pace which would set up High Noon Rider if Dalarna moved too soon. She did. Sigh... And finally in the 9th Snap Hook was everyone's single and my BEST BET. Right out of the gate you could tell he just wasn't going to run today. Badly beaten fifth.
Saturday May 2: Arkansas Derby Day
First post at Oaklawn was at noon CST which meant 1 pm Eastern so the races alternated all day. Lost in the first two at GP before the second at Oaklawn which was a Maiden Special for 3yo fillies. It was a big field and anything could happen with these kind of lightly raced sophomores. But on paper it looked like Steve Asmussen's debuting Scolding was solid. She'd drawn a big $475K sales bid and had been working lights out at her Houston base before shipping here for one last work. She was hand ridden from the gate to the top of the lane while "dueling" with another front runner. Jockey Carlos Santana never moved and she opened up on her own. When asked at the furlong pole she blew open the race and won geared down in an ultra-impressive fashion. Look for her in stakes action down the road.
Missed at GP and in Arkansas before winning my second event in Hot Springs. It was another maiden special sprint, but this one was for 3 and up colts. The race looked to me to go strictly through Bank who ran well in a sprint debut last fall at Keeneland. You could toss the two-turn experiment at Churchill and that led you to his 3yo debut when he earned a field best Beyer figure of 78 making his first start on the barn change to Steve Asmussen. He sat mid-pack to the turn, began moving the smartly was held in the two-to-three path instead of going wide, then shot between horses and was J-U-S-T up on the wire. Exciting race.
Missed with three straight - two at GP - before winning, again, at Oaklawn. On March 7th when at Gulfstream I was also playing Santa Anita and had been struck by a maiden special event where a first time starter was listed at 3/5 in the program....yes, first time starter at 3/5. Gamine had been a $1.8 Million sales grad and was training lights out for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. She walked with the race and looked stakes bound for sure. But - and especially with the Oaks now in the Fall - Baffert took the conservative approach and sent her here in this allowance test. She figured to be odds on and only had one logical rival who'd have to run the race of her life. Speech had run Beyers that put her in the same ball park and could boast she was a best-of-the-rest 2nd to star filly Donna Veloce who is now a graded winner after losing the BC Juvenile Fillies in her second career start in a photo finish to a two-time graded stakes winner. Gamine broke right on top and was home free, apparently turning for home. But at the furlong pole Speech began to gain with every stride and with 100 yards to go seemed on even terms with all the momentum, but demonstrating the kind of special talent she is, Gamine said "NO" and dug in to edge clear by the narrowest of margins. THAT was a great race!
Finally picked up my first Gulfstream winner in the next bet. I thought that Saffie Joseph's Overdeliver looked very strong in the 8th, an entry level allowance going a one-turn mile. Filtering through his past performances you could see he was very effective in one-turn events and his last had seen him too far back early when closing to just miss. Irad Ortiz a 36% winner for Joseph and that conditioner is always strong with horses owed by Frank Calabrese. Until about five minutes to post time he was the short-priced favorite. But as we got closer to post time his odds started to float up a little. Today he tracked the pace through the far turn, slid outside into the clear and pushed past the favorite before drawing off as easily best. But the best part was his odds floated all the way up to 4/1, unbelievable. And I had tripled the bet so I was cashing for $60.
This in and of itself was exciting but I was very pumped with the price for another reason. I had played a Pick 3 with Overdeliver in the first leg and three horses in the upcoming Honey Rider Stakes and closed the sequence with my BEST BET of the Weekend. In the turf stakes which was the middle leg I had the favorite who was a single in the multi-race sequences for many she was exiting back-to-back graded stakes wins. My two other choices were the anticipated front runner who had earned a huge Beyer but on dirt and a longshot. That one was out of it but the pace setter was there turning for home. My top choice, Highland Glory had been checked in the first turn which cost her a spot or two but as a closer I wasn't out of it. She began weaving through traffic on the turn and had momentum but didn't have a clear path. Shifted paths and closed with a rush but couldn't catch the 17/1 winner who'd had smoothing sailing to the wire. So disappointed. Next up at Oaklawn Todd Pletcher's Fearless was going a mile and a sixteenth in an allowance test. He'd been ultra-impressive on Holy Bull Day at Gulfstream and was a troubled fourth in the Grade 2 New Orleans Handicap. For some reason today John Velazquez had him way, WAY back and his flying finish came up short. That led us to the BET of the Weekend. The 10th at Gulfstream was the Big Drama Stakes and it was really, REALLY difficult for me to look past Chad Brown's Network Effect. Here's the case I made for him.....Last time out he made his four-year-old debut off a three month layoff. He'd been a fast closing 2nd, just missing by half a length. His Beyer of 95 was a new career top and just a click above his two top 3yo numbers (93-94). All those numbers would require a career effort by his rivals to beat him. And you had to figure he'd improve today. But add this in....in that race comeback, he'd clipped heels at the start and was much farther back than he usually was. Uh oh, a clean trip and he's tons the best.
But wait....he'd won an open MSW at Saratoga to break his debut then ran second in two open, graded stakes. Today he dropped into this STATE-bred event out of open company. BIG TIME WOW..... As the race unfolded he was saving ground up close along the rail into the turn. But then three of them lined up and two others moved outside of him and he was pinned, blocked with no where to go at this critical juncture of the race. Too late to swing wide, or was it? And if he did, how much ground would he lose? Later when interviewed Irad Ortiz commented he knew he was sitting on a ton of horse and told himself to just be patient and wait for the opportunity. That came moments later as they spread across the track with heads turned for home. A slim opening appeared along the rail and Network Effect shot through. Now in the clear with nothing but clear race track in front of him he quickened noticeably and immediately distanced himself from the field.
Inside the final two hundred yards he was in hand and closed out the stakes win as much, MUCH the best, justifying my BIG BET of the Day! Cashed for $80 as he was triple the value I expected him to be in this restricted event. Looking for him in open and/or graded stakes next time out.
My pick was a "no show" in Gulfstream's English Channel bringing us to the first of the two divisions of the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. Kudos to Oaklawn for (a) splitting the race to allow all of the runners a shot at a big $500 purse in each division (was $750 for one field). And a big shout out to the Derby points committee for allowing BOTH divisions to earn full points towards the running of the 2020 Kentucky Derby. All of this was great news for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert because he'd been concerned about how to keep his two superstars apart as long as possible. You know either Charlatan or Nadal would have run in the Santa Anita Derby or perhaps the Bluegrass. But with no where else to run he was forced to run them both here. Would love to know how the "luck of the draw" led to the two of them being in different divisions. In the first division Charlatan had drawn the rail and that was the ONLY issue. He had only been out twice and both times cruised comfortably on the lead. Couldn't afford to break a step slowly or have his path cut off. But if clear, he looked to be LONG gone. His two starts had earned Beyers of 105 and 106, the two fastest figures by ANY three-year-old in 2020. What was also VERY interesting was the comparison of his career start to that of Triple Crown winner Justify. The latter debuted on February 18th in a MSW sprint and won with a 104 Beyer; Charlatan debuted on February 16th with a winning Beyer of 105. Justify made his second start in a one mile allowance around two turns on March 11th and won by daylight with a 101 Beyer; Charlatan went a two-turn mile on March 14th with a 106 Beyer as he drew off by 10 1/4 lengths. The third start for Justify was the winning Kentucky Derby. Here was Charlatan in the Gr 1 Arkansas Derby on the first Saturday in May. He broke sharply and I knew that was nearly the end of the race. But then the fractions came up....a wicked :22 and change for the opening quarter and :46 for the half, then 1:09 for six furlongs. That's WAY fast for a nine furlong test, but he looked oh-so-comfortable. On the turn the field began to make their move, but what leaped off the TV screen to me was how hard the other riders were working on their colts and how nearly motionless Martin Garcia was on Charlatan. Once he'd straightened into the stretch he shook the reins and the margin grew with each and every stride. Drew off as TONS the best. Sooooo talented. He may have won the Kentucky Derby had it been run today was my comment to my son Jeff.
Finally, it was interesting that Churchill Downs and the Kentucky Derby ran a mythical Derby today which was featured on a three hour NBC telecast. The field of thirteen computer generated runners were all the winners of the Triple Crown. You could "bet" on the horses with your "bet" becoming a donation to fight the pandemic. As they came into the stretch it was a thrilling finish as called live by NBC horse racing announcer Larry Colmus and Secretariat - who I'd picked - won in a narrow decision.
Arkansas Derby Day Highlights
Sunday May 3
So the results from Saturday were MUCH more like it. When I'd gone through the Sunday card I had found it difficult to find many runners who presented a good betting opportunity and in fact on the twelve race card I had six "PASS" races including four of the last five. The first two races did not present a great money-making opportunity, but it was a fairly solid bet that both favorites were going to win. In the opener I virtually guaranteed the favorite would be odds-on. The negatives were obvious for Etana.... she'd already lost seven times, the last four by a combined nearly SIXTY lengths. OH MY! Conversely, of the eighty combined starts by the rest of the field there was ONE figure that would beat her last five numbers. Oh. The 3yo Super Saver filly was dropping from MSW company all the way down to this $12.5K level for trainer Saffie Joseph with top rider Irad Ortiz on board. AND the blinkers were coming off, a 30% winning angle. As "Announcer Pete" called when the field was approaching the far turn, Etana IS a stretch runner, but she was completely and I mean COMPLETELY out of the TV picture. But as the field began to swing for home here she came. And she was gobbling up ground at a rate of two or three strides to one. By the 16th pole it wasn't a question of IF she'd when but simply by how much. Blew by and drew off handily at odds on.
In the second Candy Crushem looked to be a similar short price. Many of the same angles were in play.....class dropping, figure edge and Irad Ortiz on board. Trainer Monica McGooey was off to an 0-for-11 start this spring but that was somewhat offset by the sharp bullet work 'Candy had for today's start. Ortiz sat patiently off the speed to the turn, inhaled the top two and ran away as much the best to give me my second win in a row.
Missed in the third when my "Upset Special" went from 8/1 to 7/2 at post time and had no finish in a maiden claiming turf route. Passed the fourth and fifth before we got to the sixth. I thought Tournesol was deserving of a short price favoritism and she was being bet that way early on. She came off a very troubled outing, which the analysts talked a lot about and she was dropping in class. Fortunately for me both on-air analysts really liked the last-out maiden winner. For me, I kept thinking, "That's right, talk her up" because I'll take a class dropping runner who's run well vs. winners against a last out maiden nearly every time. As post time approached the odds began to climb for Tournesol. The race went nearly the way I'd envisioned it. The crucial moment came midway on the turn when both my filly and the favorite were behind runners and the riders had to decide where to go. Ortiz (who replaced Tyler Gaffalione early in the card when he called off his mounts for the rest of the day) opted to swing wide and forfeit the lengths while guaranteeing a clear run. The favorite opted to stay inside. Tournelsol had momentum and was getting to the leaders, about to run free when a seam opened and the favorite shot through. At the furlong pole they were on event terms and I was afraid the wide move would be be my downfall but I think the "class" of having experience against winners over a last out maiden was telling late and she edged clear. The final odds of 4/1 were a generous gift that guaranteed a winning day. Cashed for $50, whooo hooo.
Missed on the last two, but the story for Sunday was only half about winning three of six and scoring a profit. While listening to hottie Acacia Courtney and analyst Jason Blewitt go through the card it occurred to me that maybe I should play the Rainbow Pick 6. But the ticket I thought would likely win was a $900 investment - way too rich for my tastes. So I decided to look at a slightly toned down version of these same horses in a series of Pick-3 selections over Race 7-8-9, 8-9-10, 9-10-11, and 10-11-12. This would give me interest in watching all the races today. The numbers worked out to an investment of $131. That was not too high, but enough that I wondered how much it was worth it. I looked up the Pick-3 payoffs for Saturday for those sequences and I'd have made money by hitting just one or two of them, but there had been a 16/1 winner in the mix. Back and forth and finally I asked Kim. She suggested that since she was going to be spending money on a Girls' Getaway this weekend it would be a good way to spend some "play money." And she encouraged me to go for it. I said I wasn't sure yet - especially because a lot of the horses were NOT my own personal picks. I considered maybe I'd bet the first Pick 3 and see how it went. But as we got close to the sequences I decided not to play. Well, the winner of the first leg of the first race was a 20/1 winner and that would virtually guarantee I'd have made money. If only I'd gone with the "play the first one." I was almost hoping not to win the first set even though I had a pick (who didn't win). By the end of the day, I'd have cashed on ALL four of the tickets. My stunned reaction :(
I will say I regretted playing in general, especially the first one. But had I jumped in after that to play the last three I'd have invested $90 to win $50 profit. Nothing to sneeze at but that's not the return I'm looking for with a multi-race wager. Of course to have played them all I'd have come out nearly $350 ahead. And I will also add that when I made the final decision not to play I told myself I would look at this for next week if I'd have profited. So I'll look forward to this coming weekend with some degree of confidence. Oh....as for the Rainbow Pick 6 ticket....it paid $15,000. Event at that, not sure I'd have invested the $900 for that return, still. You can see the entire sequence of all the Pick 3 races on Sunday in the Gulfstream Highlight video below.
Gulfstream Highlights April 30 - May 3
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