May 21 - 25
I've said for a long time since I first became "serious" about handicapping.....picking winners is only half the battle. The other half is getting the prices and the payoffs. I've come to understand and accept that it's not a money-making venture mainly because I cannot control how the crowd bets. I can only control picking the winners and hoping to make more money than I bet by trying to manipulate the wagering amounts. And this week was the perfect example. With the extended five days of racing, and playing Churchill Downs along with Santa Anita I scored with over 40% of my selections and yet I lost money for the week. Go figure. But to be fair, I had one winner that paid $9 and the rest were all short prices. And several picks, especially on Monday, failed to deliver with added money wagers. Here's how the week played out......
Thursday May 21
What a great way to start the week! The weather had made the turf course wet so we were off the turf for the first half of the card. In the opener I liked the rail horse on or off the turf, Setting The Mood. She had the breeding to handle the distance and either surface as a daughter of Lea. She broke sharply and then was taken back off the pace. Blew by on the turn and cleared off through the lane to score at even money.
In the second I went against my own advice and backed the Wesley Ward second time starter Lime, who'd disappointed in her debut at 1/5 odds but she'd been nearly nine clear of the show filly. Certainly today, right.....nope. Second at 2/5 when chasing the OTHER Ward filly all the way around the track. The third was a non-winners of three lifetime event going two turns, a mile and a sixteenth with the first finish line. Brasstown was the LONE speed of the race, on the drop down in class for Saffie Joseph. Looked really hard to go past. Boobled out of the gate and was shuffled back early. Uh oh. Then was between runners onto the backstretch before Irad Ortiz said "Enough of this" and made a blitzkrieg to the front and ran away as easily best.
In the third, originally carded as a five furlong turf sprint for maiden claimers it now appeared to go through Carolyn's Smile who was a much better fit on the dirt. She'd shown high speed and had the best dirt speed figures. She'd faded in five straight but her second, beaten a neck at six furlongs told me she'd be ok at today's abbreviated trip. She was beaten to the lead, chased on the outside and looked hopelessly beaten at the sixteenth pole, but one final acceleration......
UP IN TIME! And I had my third winner of the day through just four races. I had handicapped the Churchill card and felt "iffy" about most selections. I was surprised when my top choice of the day in their 2nd was NOT the post-time favorite and he was just second best to the actual favorite. Crowd nearly always knows better. Got right back on the winning track in Gulfstream's fifth, a non-winners of two lifetime sprint. I didn't have a lot of confidence in Big Spender who looked loose on the lead and SHOULD be able to hold on while dropping to the basement. And he did just that at 4/5 odds.
Next came the second pick from Churchill with Summer Revolution in their fourth - a claiming event going a one-turn mile. He was first off the claim for Roberto Diodoro and had run well at this configuration and over this track. Pulled away as the 3/2 favorite to win by as many as he pleased for my FIFTH winner of the day, wow.
I then made what turned out to be a very wise decision. As I noted the winnings on Summer Revolution I looked at the remainder of the selections from Louisville. I read through my comments and thought to myself, "I think I tried to make the bet fit me rather than letting the bet come to me as the best horse in the race." Decided to pass the remainder of the card. Well played Mr. Mark - would have run 6th, 2nd and 4th. The final bet at Gulfstream was a late running second as the 3/2 favorite and the other races off the turf didn't provided anyone I liked. The one dirt race where my top choice scratched I considered the second choice/selection but decided - like Churchill - that I'd put him second because I didn't think he'd win. He didn't, third as the 7/5 favorite. So for the day I had eight selections and won with five, second with the other two. Not a bad day at all!
Friday May 22
I said to Kim at the end of the day how different some days and weeks are is interesting to me. A couple of weeks ago I headed into the weekend with eight wins; then last weekend I had just three. But today was very much like yesterday. Considered playing Churchill again but the free past performances from Brisnet didn't have the program numbers or odds (even this morning) so I tossed that idea and stayed local. Much like yesterday we were off the turf for the first half of the card but were able to stay on the grass for the second half. In the opener I'd made Gloriously the second choice on turf but top pick on the main. She was making her first start for a tag and the one-turn mile figured to suit her as a daughter of BC Classic champion Mucho Macho Man. Quickly took over under Irad Ortiz and wire the field as much the best in spite of going :45 and change for the opening half mile.
Was second at a big 6/1 in the third and then in the fourth, another off-the-turf event...this one at a mile and a sixteenth around two turns I went with Morning Stride who'd had three off-the-turf events (at least showing in the pp's). I was against the predicted ML favorite and indeed the crowd saw it the way I did and made 'Stride the heavy 3/5 chalk. Swooped by to the front on the far turn and won going away, in hand for my second winner. Missed on the next three - 10th at 5/2, 2nd at 3/5 when right to the front in a turf sprint and couldn't hold on, and third at 3/1 when chasing a loose on the lead front running favorite (interesting when I HAVE the favorite loose on the lead I can't hang on but when I am chasing...." The tenth was my final bet of the day and Dillon Rocks was Ron Nicoletti's BEST BET in a two-liffetime one mile turf claimer. On the negative, he was 1-for-16 overall, ouch, and 1-for-10 on the turf. Double ouch. BUT, in his two back race he won his maiden event and last time against $20K 2L he ran a near identical figure. His Beyers towered over all but one and that one chased him five lengths behind last time out. On the drop, paired figures that beat everyone in the field AND Irad Ortiz....duh. MUCH the best.
And so I closed out the second day of the week with a 6/3-2-1 record.
Saturday May 23: Matt Winn Stakes Day at Churchill Downs
I briefly considered not playing Churchill Downs today but I'm so glad I did as I had a wonderful day in Louisville while adding a couple of winning picks from Gulfstream to the list. The first win of the day came in the Churchill opener where Golden Notion was trying to break his maiden in his sixth try. That's not good. BUT all thirty-four speed figures, ALL of the numbers of his rivals couldn't beat ANY of his five numbers. Still as they ran through the stretch he was dueling with a 60/1 runner and couldn't seem to put him away and when he did a double-digit closer was coming......held on.
Came right back and while it wasn't a big payoff it was the whole handicapping story that made the pick so very satisfying. The second at Gulfstream was a maiden claiming event and the first thing to leap off the page was that NO ONE had run this one-turn mile distance previously except two runners who'd faced each other last time out.....
And here was the thing that caught my eye. First, in that race Macho d'Oro had run by Voicesinthedarknez last time yet somehow the former was a longer priced horse. And then I noted the pace code of the race.....it was a shaded "S" indicating the track had very much favored speed that day. And check it out.....'Voices had been ON THE PACE with the bias, and in spite of that 'Macho had run him down - and he was the longer price? DUH. with a fair track he'd be an easy winner I thought. Well, the running of the race is just another example of why racing is such a great game. With all this in hand, and the money on the late running Macho d'Oro, the gates opened and it was Macho d'Oro who went to the front and Voicesinthedarknez who sat mid-pack then rallied late. But too little, too late to catch my top pick. Had to laugh out loud that I HAD the winner, but the logic had been ALL WRONG. Quackity quack along the railroad track!!!
Missed on the next two before we went to the post for the fourth in Hallandale Beach. Witch Hunter had just missed as the prohibitive 1/5 favorite last time out behind a 30/1 lone speed. Today I figured that this wouldn't happen for a couple of reasons. First new jockey Edgard Zayas would almost assuredly have her closer to the pace today and second, and the real standout angle, was that today she was first off the claim for trainer Victor Barboza who's got unworldly numbers with those....winning at an amazing 53% first off the claim. YOWZA. Stalked near the pace to the turn, took over and opened up in mid-stretch to win going away.
Missed on the next four before it was time for the BET of the Day. Last year Chad Brown had several stars, but one was 3yo Dunbar Road. She was so highly regarded that off a maiden win she was favored in the Gr 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. She'd finished a late running second that day but had scored two Gr 1 wins later in the summer. This marked her 4yo debut but she looked strong in the $100K Shawnee Stakes at a mile and a sixteenth. The question was some of the competition had strong resumes, most especially She's A Julie who was also a Gr 1 winner AND had won previously at Churchill Downs. I figured Mr. Chad would have Dunbar Road ready for a big effort, and she did not disappoint. Came from mid-pack on the turn and in spite of a moderate pace she ran down the leaders by mid-stretch and pulled away without really being asked for her very best. WHOOOO HOOOOO.
Missed at Gulfstream and then came the $100K Tepin Stakes at Churchill. I thought Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf champion Sharing was a very likely favorite as was the unbeaten Alms. But the former had won the BC at nearly 15/1 odds so apparently BEFORE that big race she wasn't assumed to be a major star; and Alms had yet to beat strong company, I thought. Meanwhile Abscond had won a Gr 1 at Woodbine last fall before being well back in the BC, but with an excuse. She'd run twice here at Gulfstream this winter. The first time she had major issues at the break and in the second, as my choice, she'd tried to catch a loose-on-the-lead front runner. I thought today with a legitimate pace she had an upset chance at 8/1. She was FLYING at a big 11/1 price and missed by less than half a length to Sharing. Great bet, no cashed ticket. Next up was the second of my "price plays," the Blame Stakes which was being used as a prep for the Grade 1 Stephen Foster. Not really sure what the thinking there was because today's event was at a one-turn mile that the Foster is a two-turn nine furlong test, but what ever. Several in the field looked like they COULD win. But what struck me was how many of them appeared to want to be up close. To me that said "hot pace and melt down, look for a closer." I've always been a fan of Owendale and he IS a closer. As the field hit the far turn the half mile split was :45 and change and I knew that the pace flow was exactly what I'd hoped for, but Owendale was still next to last more than half a dozen from the front, but he was beginning to pick off horses. He swung wide into the lane and still with a furlong to go he had a lot of ground to make up. But by this time you could tell, he was FLYING and if the long stretch in Louisville was long ENOUGH he had a real chance. Inside the final fifty yards he was third, gaining with every stride.....UP IN TIME! YESSSSS.
He paid a nice $9 for a $2 investment so I cashed for nearly $50. Missed at GP and then it was time for the featured Grade 3 Matt Winn Stakes for 3yo at Churchill. With the Derby now the first Saturday in September this event was being used as a Derby points prep. And this works in favor of the highly regarded Maxfield. Off a win in the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland he'd been the favorite for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall. But the week of the race he had a minor issue and was taken out of the race and had been brought along slowly. Most of the 2yo "stars" from last fall have all been disappointments and the current Derby points leaders are all horses who've arrived on the scene since January. So that was a strike against him. But, if as good as the press clippings, and if you believed the connections who were very high on his chances today, then you might get a fair price for one of the 3yo division leaders. He, like Dunbar Road, sat mid-pack to the turn, had to go wide into the lane and caught the leaders a furlong out. A three-way duel ensued but inside the final 100 yards he eased clear under a hand ride.
The final race of the day was a 3yo turf event and I went with a runner who was still 0-for on the turf but had come close here at Gulfstream. Didn't run a lick, but for the day I finished with another good day with a record of 17/6-3-1.....I'll take it any day of the week!
Sunday May 24
Well, we just got the one day of reprieve from the rains as it was pouring again today for the start of racing. Fortunately I'd looked ahead at the weather forecast and for all the scheduled turf events I had alternate, main track analysis ready to go. The opener - scheduled for the turf had two main track only runners that both figured. The preferred and logical favorite did NOT have a "name" rider and that was an issue for me. I almost wavered when he was hammered at the windows but just couldn't do it. When he was struggling at the top of the lane I smiled, but then he got up in time at 3/5 odds. Not for me. The second was a complete pass; in the third we were off the turf and I wrote in my analysis, "....there are only seven in here and I think if moved to the dirt we'd be looking at a three horse field which will help Renaisance Frolic go wire to wire...." How prophetic am I....a three horse field and it was just oh-so-obvious that only Renaisance Frolic would want the lead. Right to the front and even though I thought he went too fast, he was well within himself and he just walked with it. Considering he was the ONLY speed in a three horse field, the fact he was a generous 4/5 was amazing.
In the second I went against my own advice and backed the Wesley Ward second time starter Lime, who'd disappointed in her debut at 1/5 odds but she'd been nearly nine clear of the show filly. Certainly today, right.....nope. Second at 2/5 when chasing the OTHER Ward filly all the way around the track. The third was a non-winners of three lifetime event going two turns, a mile and a sixteenth with the first finish line. Brasstown was the LONE speed of the race, on the drop down in class for Saffie Joseph. Looked really hard to go past. Boobled out of the gate and was shuffled back early. Uh oh. Then was between runners onto the backstretch before Irad Ortiz said "Enough of this" and made a blitzkrieg to the front and ran away as easily best.
In the third, originally carded as a five furlong turf sprint for maiden claimers it now appeared to go through Carolyn's Smile who was a much better fit on the dirt. She'd shown high speed and had the best dirt speed figures. She'd faded in five straight but her second, beaten a neck at six furlongs told me she'd be ok at today's abbreviated trip. She was beaten to the lead, chased on the outside and looked hopelessly beaten at the sixteenth pole, but one final acceleration......
UP IN TIME! And I had my third winner of the day through just four races. I had handicapped the Churchill card and felt "iffy" about most selections. I was surprised when my top choice of the day in their 2nd was NOT the post-time favorite and he was just second best to the actual favorite. Crowd nearly always knows better. Got right back on the winning track in Gulfstream's fifth, a non-winners of two lifetime sprint. I didn't have a lot of confidence in Big Spender who looked loose on the lead and SHOULD be able to hold on while dropping to the basement. And he did just that at 4/5 odds.
Next came the second pick from Churchill with Summer Revolution in their fourth - a claiming event going a one-turn mile. He was first off the claim for Roberto Diodoro and had run well at this configuration and over this track. Pulled away as the 3/2 favorite to win by as many as he pleased for my FIFTH winner of the day, wow.
I then made what turned out to be a very wise decision. As I noted the winnings on Summer Revolution I looked at the remainder of the selections from Louisville. I read through my comments and thought to myself, "I think I tried to make the bet fit me rather than letting the bet come to me as the best horse in the race." Decided to pass the remainder of the card. Well played Mr. Mark - would have run 6th, 2nd and 4th. The final bet at Gulfstream was a late running second as the 3/2 favorite and the other races off the turf didn't provided anyone I liked. The one dirt race where my top choice scratched I considered the second choice/selection but decided - like Churchill - that I'd put him second because I didn't think he'd win. He didn't, third as the 7/5 favorite. So for the day I had eight selections and won with five, second with the other two. Not a bad day at all!
Friday May 22
I said to Kim at the end of the day how different some days and weeks are is interesting to me. A couple of weeks ago I headed into the weekend with eight wins; then last weekend I had just three. But today was very much like yesterday. Considered playing Churchill again but the free past performances from Brisnet didn't have the program numbers or odds (even this morning) so I tossed that idea and stayed local. Much like yesterday we were off the turf for the first half of the card but were able to stay on the grass for the second half. In the opener I'd made Gloriously the second choice on turf but top pick on the main. She was making her first start for a tag and the one-turn mile figured to suit her as a daughter of BC Classic champion Mucho Macho Man. Quickly took over under Irad Ortiz and wire the field as much the best in spite of going :45 and change for the opening half mile.
Was second at a big 6/1 in the third and then in the fourth, another off-the-turf event...this one at a mile and a sixteenth around two turns I went with Morning Stride who'd had three off-the-turf events (at least showing in the pp's). I was against the predicted ML favorite and indeed the crowd saw it the way I did and made 'Stride the heavy 3/5 chalk. Swooped by to the front on the far turn and won going away, in hand for my second winner. Missed on the next three - 10th at 5/2, 2nd at 3/5 when right to the front in a turf sprint and couldn't hold on, and third at 3/1 when chasing a loose on the lead front running favorite (interesting when I HAVE the favorite loose on the lead I can't hang on but when I am chasing...." The tenth was my final bet of the day and Dillon Rocks was Ron Nicoletti's BEST BET in a two-liffetime one mile turf claimer. On the negative, he was 1-for-16 overall, ouch, and 1-for-10 on the turf. Double ouch. BUT, in his two back race he won his maiden event and last time against $20K 2L he ran a near identical figure. His Beyers towered over all but one and that one chased him five lengths behind last time out. On the drop, paired figures that beat everyone in the field AND Irad Ortiz....duh. MUCH the best.
And so I closed out the second day of the week with a 6/3-2-1 record.
Saturday May 23: Matt Winn Stakes Day at Churchill Downs
I briefly considered not playing Churchill Downs today but I'm so glad I did as I had a wonderful day in Louisville while adding a couple of winning picks from Gulfstream to the list. The first win of the day came in the Churchill opener where Golden Notion was trying to break his maiden in his sixth try. That's not good. BUT all thirty-four speed figures, ALL of the numbers of his rivals couldn't beat ANY of his five numbers. Still as they ran through the stretch he was dueling with a 60/1 runner and couldn't seem to put him away and when he did a double-digit closer was coming......held on.
Came right back and while it wasn't a big payoff it was the whole handicapping story that made the pick so very satisfying. The second at Gulfstream was a maiden claiming event and the first thing to leap off the page was that NO ONE had run this one-turn mile distance previously except two runners who'd faced each other last time out.....
And here was the thing that caught my eye. First, in that race Macho d'Oro had run by Voicesinthedarknez last time yet somehow the former was a longer priced horse. And then I noted the pace code of the race.....it was a shaded "S" indicating the track had very much favored speed that day. And check it out.....'Voices had been ON THE PACE with the bias, and in spite of that 'Macho had run him down - and he was the longer price? DUH. with a fair track he'd be an easy winner I thought. Well, the running of the race is just another example of why racing is such a great game. With all this in hand, and the money on the late running Macho d'Oro, the gates opened and it was Macho d'Oro who went to the front and Voicesinthedarknez who sat mid-pack then rallied late. But too little, too late to catch my top pick. Had to laugh out loud that I HAD the winner, but the logic had been ALL WRONG. Quackity quack along the railroad track!!!
Missed on the next two before we went to the post for the fourth in Hallandale Beach. Witch Hunter had just missed as the prohibitive 1/5 favorite last time out behind a 30/1 lone speed. Today I figured that this wouldn't happen for a couple of reasons. First new jockey Edgard Zayas would almost assuredly have her closer to the pace today and second, and the real standout angle, was that today she was first off the claim for trainer Victor Barboza who's got unworldly numbers with those....winning at an amazing 53% first off the claim. YOWZA. Stalked near the pace to the turn, took over and opened up in mid-stretch to win going away.
Missed on the next four before it was time for the BET of the Day. Last year Chad Brown had several stars, but one was 3yo Dunbar Road. She was so highly regarded that off a maiden win she was favored in the Gr 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. She'd finished a late running second that day but had scored two Gr 1 wins later in the summer. This marked her 4yo debut but she looked strong in the $100K Shawnee Stakes at a mile and a sixteenth. The question was some of the competition had strong resumes, most especially She's A Julie who was also a Gr 1 winner AND had won previously at Churchill Downs. I figured Mr. Chad would have Dunbar Road ready for a big effort, and she did not disappoint. Came from mid-pack on the turn and in spite of a moderate pace she ran down the leaders by mid-stretch and pulled away without really being asked for her very best. WHOOOO HOOOOO.
Missed at Gulfstream and then came the $100K Tepin Stakes at Churchill. I thought Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf champion Sharing was a very likely favorite as was the unbeaten Alms. But the former had won the BC at nearly 15/1 odds so apparently BEFORE that big race she wasn't assumed to be a major star; and Alms had yet to beat strong company, I thought. Meanwhile Abscond had won a Gr 1 at Woodbine last fall before being well back in the BC, but with an excuse. She'd run twice here at Gulfstream this winter. The first time she had major issues at the break and in the second, as my choice, she'd tried to catch a loose-on-the-lead front runner. I thought today with a legitimate pace she had an upset chance at 8/1. She was FLYING at a big 11/1 price and missed by less than half a length to Sharing. Great bet, no cashed ticket. Next up was the second of my "price plays," the Blame Stakes which was being used as a prep for the Grade 1 Stephen Foster. Not really sure what the thinking there was because today's event was at a one-turn mile that the Foster is a two-turn nine furlong test, but what ever. Several in the field looked like they COULD win. But what struck me was how many of them appeared to want to be up close. To me that said "hot pace and melt down, look for a closer." I've always been a fan of Owendale and he IS a closer. As the field hit the far turn the half mile split was :45 and change and I knew that the pace flow was exactly what I'd hoped for, but Owendale was still next to last more than half a dozen from the front, but he was beginning to pick off horses. He swung wide into the lane and still with a furlong to go he had a lot of ground to make up. But by this time you could tell, he was FLYING and if the long stretch in Louisville was long ENOUGH he had a real chance. Inside the final fifty yards he was third, gaining with every stride.....UP IN TIME! YESSSSS.
Owendale - sooooo close, but up in time
He paid a nice $9 for a $2 investment so I cashed for nearly $50. Missed at GP and then it was time for the featured Grade 3 Matt Winn Stakes for 3yo at Churchill. With the Derby now the first Saturday in September this event was being used as a Derby points prep. And this works in favor of the highly regarded Maxfield. Off a win in the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland he'd been the favorite for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall. But the week of the race he had a minor issue and was taken out of the race and had been brought along slowly. Most of the 2yo "stars" from last fall have all been disappointments and the current Derby points leaders are all horses who've arrived on the scene since January. So that was a strike against him. But, if as good as the press clippings, and if you believed the connections who were very high on his chances today, then you might get a fair price for one of the 3yo division leaders. He, like Dunbar Road, sat mid-pack to the turn, had to go wide into the lane and caught the leaders a furlong out. A three-way duel ensued but inside the final 100 yards he eased clear under a hand ride.
The final race of the day was a 3yo turf event and I went with a runner who was still 0-for on the turf but had come close here at Gulfstream. Didn't run a lick, but for the day I finished with another good day with a record of 17/6-3-1.....I'll take it any day of the week!
Sunday May 24
Well, we just got the one day of reprieve from the rains as it was pouring again today for the start of racing. Fortunately I'd looked ahead at the weather forecast and for all the scheduled turf events I had alternate, main track analysis ready to go. The opener - scheduled for the turf had two main track only runners that both figured. The preferred and logical favorite did NOT have a "name" rider and that was an issue for me. I almost wavered when he was hammered at the windows but just couldn't do it. When he was struggling at the top of the lane I smiled, but then he got up in time at 3/5 odds. Not for me. The second was a complete pass; in the third we were off the turf and I wrote in my analysis, "....there are only seven in here and I think if moved to the dirt we'd be looking at a three horse field which will help Renaisance Frolic go wire to wire...." How prophetic am I....a three horse field and it was just oh-so-obvious that only Renaisance Frolic would want the lead. Right to the front and even though I thought he went too fast, he was well within himself and he just walked with it. Considering he was the ONLY speed in a three horse field, the fact he was a generous 4/5 was amazing.
I had tripled the bet and collected nearly $25. Considered playing the 4th, a MSW sprint but just didn't feel confident in the first time starters being bet. My third choice won at 6/1. The fifth was another sprint, this a non-winners of three lifetime and right off the bat Man With A Plan caught my eye. Why? Because he was CLAIMED by Todd Pletcher! In all my years of handicapping I can only MAYBE think of that happening once. Was a concern that after being haltered for $35K he was now in for a mere $8K, and conditioned company. But all eleven of his rivals had either lost multiple times in 3L or just exiting a 2L win. Right to the front and was clear in the lane. Drifted out and the closest pursuer looked to run up on his heels, then he drew off with authority. The objection light went on and they looked at it multiple times. Seen worse dismissed and less resulting in a DQ....no change :) HORRAY!
Two-for-two to start the day. Missed with the 4/5 favorite in an off-the-turf 5f sprint in the 6th and was even money but 6th in a dull effort with a Pletcher acquisition from NY in the 7th. The final play of the day came in the 9th, an entry level allowance going a mile and a sixteenth. The only question was if the favorite, the red-hot Blue Buff could continue to produce. He was on a three race roll where he'd aired in first a maiden event, then a claiming event, then a starter event....all the while going from sprint, to one-turn mile to this mile and a sixteenth trip. My main concern wasn't that he wasn't good enough, but with an off-the-pace style could he run down the leaders over a wet and what I thought was a speed-favoring surface. In the end I not only thought he could but upped the bet. He came with a blitz approaching the far turn. Swung five wide and swept to the front and continued on to the wire to win in what looked closer than it actually was.
No bet in the final two races and so for the day I finished a solid 3-for-5 with a third place finish.
Monday May 25: Memorial Day
Heading into today I've had a REALLY good run. And while I had more confidence than normal in the selections for today I couldn't help but wonder if the numbers weren't about to even out. And that's basically what happened. Two Todd Pletcher odds-on favorites failed to produce and most of the others at Gulfstream didn't run their race. It was ironic that after missing in the first two I'd originally planned to pass the third, but for her Early Pick 5, hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney had her single in here. And to be fair, the main threat to my top choice was an MTO who scratched. So I doubled the bet on Notsosubtle and he ran away. First win, on a bet I hadn't planned to make. Go figure.
Got the final of two wins at Gulfstream in the7th when class dropper Ms Meshak was running for a tag. That was the issue as she'd last won in a stakes. But if she was even 85% right she'd win for fun. She did run an "A" level race and was tons the best.
Would have been the end of the day but I had handicapped the Santa Anita card as they had three big stakes today. In their third Bob Baffett's Message went too fast on the front end and was 2nd as the 9/5 choice. In the fourth it just seemed like one of those "it's in the stars" picks. Kelani Kim (my wife's name) was the lone class dropper in the field and the apparent lone speed. And her trainer Mark (my name) Glatt was 6-for-9 with MSW to MC since January of 2019. Duh, hello. Right to the front and never had to take a deep breath.
Right after they crossed the wire we headed out to the Yardhouse Restaurant for a family dinner, so good to be out and about.....
Got back and watched my last four picks. The first was the Grade 2 Monrovia going five and a half furlongs on the turf....used to be 6 1/2 down the hillside, oh I miss those races. Jolie Olimpica had suffered her first loss last time out going long and I thought she'd be tough today. Rated off the pace by Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith. Made the winning move at the furlong pole and he timed it just right as she went by the leader in time to win but not too early to give the closers a chance. I'd tripled the bet and cashed for nearly $30.
In the final three races I was 2nd at 3/5 with a Baffert firster; then was third at 2/1 in the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile when Chad Brown's Without Parole had all kinds of traffic problems. The "other Brown" And in the final race, the Grade 1 Gamely my Chad Brown pick was too far back and really never involved. So for the day I was 2-for-6 (with two seconds and a third) at Santa Anita....can't complain there. But only 9/2-1-3 at GP. Still, for the week:
The last thing I'll add....because it is MY journal and this is about MY life.....on Monday evening we had the local CBS news on and my favorite anchor Laura Pastrana was hosting. She is nearly always the morning anchor. I tweeted out to her and she answered later. Then on Tuesday she was back in the anchor chair. So I reached out to her again, asking if she preferred to have the later shift in the studio or was it more convenient to broadcast from home early in the morning. Within two minutes, while still on the air she replied. To me that is very cool :)
Two-for-two to start the day. Missed with the 4/5 favorite in an off-the-turf 5f sprint in the 6th and was even money but 6th in a dull effort with a Pletcher acquisition from NY in the 7th. The final play of the day came in the 9th, an entry level allowance going a mile and a sixteenth. The only question was if the favorite, the red-hot Blue Buff could continue to produce. He was on a three race roll where he'd aired in first a maiden event, then a claiming event, then a starter event....all the while going from sprint, to one-turn mile to this mile and a sixteenth trip. My main concern wasn't that he wasn't good enough, but with an off-the-pace style could he run down the leaders over a wet and what I thought was a speed-favoring surface. In the end I not only thought he could but upped the bet. He came with a blitz approaching the far turn. Swung five wide and swept to the front and continued on to the wire to win in what looked closer than it actually was.
No bet in the final two races and so for the day I finished a solid 3-for-5 with a third place finish.
Monday May 25: Memorial Day
Heading into today I've had a REALLY good run. And while I had more confidence than normal in the selections for today I couldn't help but wonder if the numbers weren't about to even out. And that's basically what happened. Two Todd Pletcher odds-on favorites failed to produce and most of the others at Gulfstream didn't run their race. It was ironic that after missing in the first two I'd originally planned to pass the third, but for her Early Pick 5, hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney had her single in here. And to be fair, the main threat to my top choice was an MTO who scratched. So I doubled the bet on Notsosubtle and he ran away. First win, on a bet I hadn't planned to make. Go figure.
Got the final of two wins at Gulfstream in the7th when class dropper Ms Meshak was running for a tag. That was the issue as she'd last won in a stakes. But if she was even 85% right she'd win for fun. She did run an "A" level race and was tons the best.
Would have been the end of the day but I had handicapped the Santa Anita card as they had three big stakes today. In their third Bob Baffett's Message went too fast on the front end and was 2nd as the 9/5 choice. In the fourth it just seemed like one of those "it's in the stars" picks. Kelani Kim (my wife's name) was the lone class dropper in the field and the apparent lone speed. And her trainer Mark (my name) Glatt was 6-for-9 with MSW to MC since January of 2019. Duh, hello. Right to the front and never had to take a deep breath.
Right after they crossed the wire we headed out to the Yardhouse Restaurant for a family dinner, so good to be out and about.....
Got back and watched my last four picks. The first was the Grade 2 Monrovia going five and a half furlongs on the turf....used to be 6 1/2 down the hillside, oh I miss those races. Jolie Olimpica had suffered her first loss last time out going long and I thought she'd be tough today. Rated off the pace by Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith. Made the winning move at the furlong pole and he timed it just right as she went by the leader in time to win but not too early to give the closers a chance. I'd tripled the bet and cashed for nearly $30.
In the final three races I was 2nd at 3/5 with a Baffert firster; then was third at 2/1 in the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile when Chad Brown's Without Parole had all kinds of traffic problems. The "other Brown" And in the final race, the Grade 1 Gamely my Chad Brown pick was too far back and really never involved. So for the day I was 2-for-6 (with two seconds and a third) at Santa Anita....can't complain there. But only 9/2-1-3 at GP. Still, for the week:
Memorial Day Week Racing Highlights
No comments:
Post a Comment