The Week I Hit THREE Pick-3's
Thursday May 7 - Sunday May 11
So, how you (and I) view the week largely is determined by how you view the three sequences of Pick-3 races I hit for the week. How so, you ask? Well for the week, it was a lean week in terms of picking winners. On Thursday and Friday I had one win each day; on Saturday I had two outright winners. And on Sunday I had two more. Considering that two weeks ago I went into the weekend with eight winners already in the folder. And last week after a slow start to the week I watched eight winners cross the line on Saturday, Arkansas Derby Day alone. But when the last race completed this week I'd had just six winners for the four day racing week. However, if you counted the Pick-3 wins, I had TWELVE wins on the week. And to take it a step further, I had another winner on Friday and two more on Saturday as part of Pick-3 sequences that where I didn't hit all three. So at the end of the weekend I'd had fifteen races where the horse I'd picked to win crossed the finish line first. This caused me to reevaluate how I keep my records considering that I'm playing more multi-race wagers. So one project I'll undertake will be to look back through the spring season and add those races in and see how it changes my winning numbers. But, here's how the week unfolded for me.
Thursday
Kim had left Wednesday morning for a Girls' Weekend in Daytona and was coupling that with an extended weekend in Orlando so I was looking at nearly a week home alone. The weather was wonderful and as I handicapped the races this morning awaiting the start of the race day I took a photo to document how wonderful my setting is here in Sunrise. In the opener my pick was the 3/5 favorite in a maiden claiming turf sprint. But the trip was five wide and he was no better than third. Passed the second which was a 2yo MSW event and in the third I liked Take Charge Again in a non-winners of two lifetime sprint. Last time out she'd dropped in for this cheap price and restricted company but "broke awkwardly and was last of ten. But she rallied strongly behind a runaway winner to get second. With a clean start she looked tough to beat. She did today, and rode the rail from her inside post position while stalking the leaders in fourth. At the top of the lane she swung off the rail into the clear four wide and powered home as much the best. The 8/5 price enabled me to cash a ticket worth nearly $30. Here we go I thought. Such was not to be the case. In the fourth going two turns on the turf my horse was moving strongly up the backstretch along the rail when checked sharply, then clipped heals losing all momentum and chance. In the sixth I had the 3/5 favorite and Victory Town cruised to the lead outside of the second choice who had led them into the turn. But as heads turned for home that one would not go away and he re-rallied to finish in front of me, relegating me to second. Had a 9/1 longshot in the 8th but was left at the gate; then when making a strong move, and I actually thought "I'm going to win in spite of the start," but was checked sharply on the turn. Got clear and finished very strongly for third. Oh what could have been. In the 9th I was 5/2 and on the move with no where to run, waited for room and got out too late, third. Finally in the tenth I was the 9/5 favorite and had every chance but was too far off the pace and ended up third.
Friday
Today was an excellent example of how the week went. From seven races I played, my horse won three of them. You can't argue with that. But only one of them was the WIN bet. In the opener I thought it was a wide open event but it looked to me like a 12/1 longshot had every right to go wire to wire. Left the gate at 14/1 and led into the lane....oh my, then stopped to finish ninth. In the second, a 2yo MSW event I passed. Also took a pass in the fourth. The remainder of the card I had good selections I thought, and so I decided to play multiple Pick 3 tickets. In the fifth we were sprinting five furlongs on the turf for a $16K price tag. R Boy Bode looked to me to be the speed of the race, and with the rail draw and Emsiael Jaramillo on board he looked long gone. I thought the only one who stood a chance to upset the favorite was parked on the outside, New York's Finest. I thought the draw would lead him to track my selection to the lane where I spurt free. But when the gates opened I was away slowly losing all chance. That break handed an easy lead to New York's Finest and he cruised right to the front at 2/1 odds and never looked back. Fortunately, I had used them both on the ticket.
The sixth was a maiden claiming sprint which I thought provided the UPSET SPECIAL opportunity of the day. Todd Pletcher has been, to this point, "merely mortal" and several of his runners had failed to produce at short odds. So I thought his entry in here, Bardot was vulnerable. He'd dueled gate to deep stretch and was a best of the rest second for $25K. Now dropped to this $16K he was a legitimate favorite. But I liked Harmonic Thunder for Saffie Joseph who was 20/1 in the program. The race unfolded nearly as I'd seen it. Bardot at 3/5 near the front and took over heading for home. And he was weakening as he approached the wire. 'Thunder stalked the pace at 12/1 and was ready to roll but when asked, just finished evenly. Fortunately Bardot held on while my win bet dead-heated for fourth. I had a third horse on the ticket at 7/1 but he was dead last. I'm alive heading into the final leg and that would be my BET of the Day.
The seventh was the key to the day. This was an $8K claiming race going a one-turn mile on the main track. And as I commented in my analysis, unless you got a "well, that's horse racing" kind of result, this race went strictly through the favorite, Enlisting. He'd won three of his last four, and the lone loss came when trying the turf. Toss that and he'd won his last three dirt races. He was also a perfect three-for-three at the one-turn mile. Add it that today he went first off the claim for trainer Victor Barboza who wins with an astounding 56% of those and you can see why he was the BET of the Day. He was third early in the going but cruised up on the turn, took over turning for home and won by as many as he wanted. The prime time play netted a return of over $30 and sealed the first Pick 3 winning ticket of the week.
I also keyed him in a middle sequence and in a late sequence. But not only did none of my win bets win those (2nd in both) but the horses I had in the multi-race sequence also failed to deliver. I thought I had solid bets in the final two races as well and had a late Pick 3 but none of them hit. So I ended the day with one WIN bet winner but three picks crossing the line first. "Celebrated" with a glass of wine on the back deck and shared my "lonely view" on Facebook - got 40 hits via social media and several friends having a "virtual drink" with me :)
Saturday
With Oaklawn closing their doors last Saturday that left only Tampa and Gulfstream to carry the load for thoroughbred racing (sorry, just don't count Fonner Park in Nebraska or Will Rogers Downs in Oklahoma). I have found Tampa racing to be less predictable, especially in the spring but with no other options I thought I'd look any way. And surprisingly I found several horses that I thought looked legitimate. In fact the one horse on the day that looked like THE most likely winner was running at Tampa. But for the day in Oldsmar I only had one winner, and at 1/5 at that, to go with two seconds and two thirds. The "sure thing".....fifth behind a 17/1 winner. Dismal day on the west coast of Florida. And at Gulfstream I also had just one WIN bet come home. But as the day ended I felt much better about my handicapping because my day actually went like this: 1st - 9th, 2nd - 3rd, 3rd - 4th, 4th - 3rd, 6th - WIN, 7th - WIN, 8th - 2nd, 9th WIN, 10th - WIN, 11th - WIN. So as you see, as the day ended I finished with five winning selections in the last six races and was 2nd in the other. BUT....only one of those came on a straight win bet. No explaining how my 5/2 choice in the opener. In the second it was a 2yo race and I was irritated with myself for backing a Wesley Ward 2yo AGAIN but I was convinced when the DRF's Mike Welsch made him his BEST of the day to go in. Third at 9/5 while the Todd Pletcher horse who got all kinds of attention won at a fair price. Less than a quality ride on the turf in the third when taken to the back off a slow pace. Closed seven wide with a rush, too little, too late in fourth. Cruised up with the perfect trip in the fifth but no finish at 5/1, third. The sixth I liked Todd Pletcher's Riggins. He'd only been eighth in his debut, but that was in MSW company and he'd been fanned very wide turning for home. Today he dropped in for a high $65K price tag and got Irad Ortiz. Came charging down the lane after getting a seam at the top of the stretch and won as the best horse in the race.
Only had the minimum so the payoff of $20 was generous. The seventh began the first of overlapping Pick 3 bets for me. It was a turf sprint for three-year-olds and it looked to me like a speed duel would set up Compensate who was exiting a strong finishing 2nd in the Melody of Colors Stakes a month ago. I put him on the ticket with another finisher and the two speed horses just in case one of them got loose. Sure enough, Foolish Humor at 7/2 went to the front and the other front runner decided not to go with him. Wired the field, holding on desperately to that other front runner - so as they deliberated the photo result I knew (a) I'd lost on my win bet but (b) I was going to be alive in the Pick 3. The 7/2 price meant I would have a nice price if I could cash on the other two legs. The middle leg saw me on Louie's Kingdom who was a prohibitive favorite. He was a standout in the field and was even Caton Bradar's single in the $12 Million Rainbow Pick 6. And he was every handicapper's top choice. Right to the front but took some pressure from a 5/1 outsider. Put that one away into the lane and opened up. Only to be run down by an 11/1 outsider. I had two alternatives as savers on the P3 but he wasn't one of them. In retrospect how I left that guy off is a mystery. The race was a non-winners of two lifetime and I always look for horses running in that condition for the first time. Only two in the field were like that. A 30/1 outsider and another that was the 9/2 fourth choice in the program. EVERYONE overlooked that one and he's the 11/1 winner. I'd used Louie's Kingdom and the other two as the first leg in a second sequence of Pick 3 bets so I was now dead on both tickets. In the ninth, the Sunshine Forever Stakes - a one mile turf event - I went with a 10/1 graded stakes winner to upset the field, but also put in both Todd Pletcher horses and another of the top betting choices, as well as a 40/1 Euro invader. When a couple of scratches were announced I really should have re-handicapped for the win bet because the pace dynamic now left Pletcher's Halladay ALL ALONE on the front end. Sure enough, he wired the field as the 6/5 favorite.
So I had the first and third legs of the first Pick 3 and would have been alive in the second leg of the second set, but was also alive on the final and third ticket. Race ten I didn't have a strong enough opinion on any of the runners to make a win bet because I couldn't toss out Battle of Blenheim but I also didn't think he was throw out. Didn't help my confidence level that in the last five times I'd seen him run I'd bet him three times - lost them all - did not trust him in the others and he won. So I didn't bet him, but DID put him in the Pick 3. He was JUST up in time. I was alive through the second leg.
Note that this would have made two Pick 3 winning tickets in a row had I noted the R8 winner in the nw2L that I left out. They paid $78 and $44. Not life-changing, but would have paid for all the bets on the day. In race eleven I really liked Todd Pletcher's I'll Fight Dempsey. His debut run on Fountain of Youth Day had been sensational. He'd gone wire to wire in a dazzling performance which was validated when the runner-up, a Chad Brown horse came right back to win. When 'Dempsey reappeared in an allowance event going 7f on the first weekend of the spring he was the hot 1/2 favorite. Whether it was the extra furlong, the first time winners, or the sizzling fractions of :44.3 and 1:09.3 that did him in - or a combination - he faded to fourth. BUT....at the six furlong mark he'd actually run faster, on a faster pace than his debut. So today the return to six furlongs pointed him out. And even more important, he was going from open company to state-bred rivals. My only concern for the Pick 3 was that Pletcher had sent out SO many favorites that have gone down the drain. So I looked for alternatives. I put a Tampa invader on all four tickets; I used an impressive last out maiden winner on one ticket, and I used Tap It To Win on two tickets. He'd won impressively in his maiden at Saratoga - that's ALWAYS a good sign. Then he ran in two stakes events, way over his head. Today he was coming off a layoff, but if he ran back to the Saratoga race he was every bit as talented as I'll Fight Dempsey. The Pletcher colt was pressured from the get go but had a head in front going into the turn. But that was it at odds of 9/5, he faded badly. The last out maiden winner took over at 5/1 but in mid-stretch Tap It To Win came flying by to score at better than $12 and clinched the final Pick 3 ticket.
With two winning tickets I cashed out at better than $60. So, even though I only had one win bet score, I had correctly identified the winner in five of the last six races and felt pretty good about my day.
Sunday
The weather forecast all week had been for a major storm system to move through late Saturday and produce rain nearly all day Sunday, some of it reportedly enough to produce local flooding. But as the week came to it's conclusion the forecasts changed to very late Saturday night for the storm to hit, letting the Saturday card play out as it was set up; and then the majority of the rain was more south of Fort Lauderdale. That meant for me, handicapping the races, big questions as to (a) what surface we'd be on and (b) who would stay in the races. So I basically handicapped fourteen races for the ten race card. An hour before post time when Jason Blewitt and hottie Acacia Courtney came on the air to analyze the card, we were still "Fast and Firm." But within ten minutes of the beginning of the show they were told ALL races were now off the turf. In the opener, originally scheduled for 8f on the turf I had thought if moved to the main track that #9 Bella Gianna could take these wire to wire. She went off at a big 10/1 price and led to the final strides before caught by the favorite. In the second I led to the turn and stopped at 9/5. In the third I liked #8 Tipsy gain on the front end. Much like the first, right to the front, all the way to a head bobbing photo.....second.
And so we headed into the middle part of the card. I was 5/1 and completely out of it in the 4th. But finally my fortune changed in the fifth. This nw2L claiming event going a one-turn mile seemed more like a who CANNOT win that several win contenders. And with that in mind Les Tres Jolie "stood out" to me. The two "most likely" win candidates were a 1-for-11 runner who'd given way multiple times on the lead and a Tampa turf winner. As the field approached the far turn - and you can't tell this in the highlight film below because I picked up the action near the top of the lane - Les Tres Jolie was STILL lagging far back. But on the turn she began to run and she caught both my eye and that of Announcer Pete. The top five separated turning for home like the parting of the Red Sea and she stormed through to win going away, at a big 5/1 price. Cashed for $50 and I was very happy.
I passed the sixth, a maiden special event on the dirt. I found it so difficult to find anyone to like that my entire analysis was two sentences...... "Not willing to go in enough to bet but 4-R U Royalty (12/1) has run figures as good as the program choices but unlike his rivals ALL of his came in OPEN MSW events. Goes turf to dirt which is an 0-for-18 angle, ouch." You can guess - won for fun and paid $27 - no bet. Sigh..... Because there's no racing on Monday I spent the morning laying out spread sheets of all the speed figures for the horses in races 7-through-10. After missing the "obvious" 11/1 winner yesterday it occurred to me that an old process I'd used where I looked at only the numbers before handicapping might lead me to some potential price plays in Pick-3 situations. And in this four race sequence I thought I had legitimate runners to lean on. If the 7th came off the turf it seemed very obvious that the one to beat would be #10 Trev. He'd won four straight in three of those his Beyer figures would win by a pole. But if he ran that "other" race he could prove vulnerable. But using the "A-B-C" method of ranking the runners he was clearly an "A" ticket. Three other runners were worthy of minor chances, so I laid out six tickets. Trev was on all six, so if he won I'd have the shorter priced Pick 3 ticket six times. The others I used on two tickets each. Trev dueled to the top of the lane and then pulled away to win by daylight. But the best part was he left the gate somehow at a very inflated 2/1 price AND paid more than $6 so my triple investment netted nearly $50.
I'm a flat-bet winner for the day on win bets now regardless of what happens in the final three races. But more importantly I'm alive in the Pick 3 on ALL six tickets. In race 8, if you tossed the last race for Yodel E.A. Who when stumbling at the gate, and his "awkward start" four back, then four of his six races earned Beyers that would win handily. And he was Ron Nicoletti's BEST Bet. I thought he was a "good bet," but noted he was 0-for-2 at the distance and his three wins had come vs. lesser. So I didn't want to make him a "lone ranger" on any tickets. I thought his main competition would come from #6 Fortune Cookie and #7 Champagneonme. The former was one of those that if you gave him excuses recently he had plenty of back races that would win here AND today he picked up the hot riding Irad Ortiz. The latter had only four dirt races going back to January 2019, and all four put him in the picture. He'd won last time out at 10/1 over Fortune Cookie who was the 3/2 favorite. I used Fortune Cookie on all six tickets and with Yodel E.A. Who, and put Champagneonme on five of the tickets. Played out nearly as I'd envisioned it.....Yodel E.A. Who took command, pressed by Fortune Cookie with Champagneoneme waiting to come late. It was 'Yodel who cracked first and 'Cookie took over. Here came 'Champagne but he couldn't get by. No matter to me as through the final furlong I had them both. Fortune Cookie was the second choice and I was now alive into the final leg of the sequence with SIX tickets.
The ninth was my BEST BET, Frosted Grace, the #2 horse. His last two and three of his last four speed figures would win by a pole. Last time out he'd been caught on the wire by a highly regarded Pletcher sprinter and finished in front of a next out winner. Looked very solid to me. BUT....in looking at just the numbers I gave two others a legitimate enough chance to win in an upset. #4 Whyruawesome had not run numbers good enough to win since last fall when under the care of now suspended trainer Jorge Navarro, but if he ran back to those he was a danger. I put him on two tickets. And the #6 Where Paradise Lay was included strictly based on numbers. I can honestly say that had I not done the spread sheets I'd never have considered him. His numbers were as good as the lower level figures for Frosted Grace but two back he'd been 15/1 against Frosted Grace when he ran second - and he was 7/2 that day. AND it was some five lengths between them. Still, enough numbers to include him on two tickets. Frosted Grace was 4/5 and right out of the gate looked like he didn't want any part of running. Into the far turn he was near the back. Meanwhile a 19/1 front runner was leading them into the lane with a 7/1 hounding him. But then here came Where Paradise Lay with a full head of steam and blew right by. At the furlong marker Frosted Grace woke up and FLEW home to be second, but no threat to the winner. So my chance at having payout six times went down the drain but with a non-favorite winning all three legs I was going to make money.
I laid out $36 for the six tickets and cashed on two of them at about $33 each so I basically doubled my money while only cashing one win bet. Lost the finale when off slowly, rushed and gave way. So for the day I had bounced back to have picked the winner in six straight races, cashing on two win bets and a Pick 3.
Next week Charles Town is opening and supposedly so is Churchill Downs. More options!
Today was an excellent example of how the week went. From seven races I played, my horse won three of them. You can't argue with that. But only one of them was the WIN bet. In the opener I thought it was a wide open event but it looked to me like a 12/1 longshot had every right to go wire to wire. Left the gate at 14/1 and led into the lane....oh my, then stopped to finish ninth. In the second, a 2yo MSW event I passed. Also took a pass in the fourth. The remainder of the card I had good selections I thought, and so I decided to play multiple Pick 3 tickets. In the fifth we were sprinting five furlongs on the turf for a $16K price tag. R Boy Bode looked to me to be the speed of the race, and with the rail draw and Emsiael Jaramillo on board he looked long gone. I thought the only one who stood a chance to upset the favorite was parked on the outside, New York's Finest. I thought the draw would lead him to track my selection to the lane where I spurt free. But when the gates opened I was away slowly losing all chance. That break handed an easy lead to New York's Finest and he cruised right to the front at 2/1 odds and never looked back. Fortunately, I had used them both on the ticket.
The sixth was a maiden claiming sprint which I thought provided the UPSET SPECIAL opportunity of the day. Todd Pletcher has been, to this point, "merely mortal" and several of his runners had failed to produce at short odds. So I thought his entry in here, Bardot was vulnerable. He'd dueled gate to deep stretch and was a best of the rest second for $25K. Now dropped to this $16K he was a legitimate favorite. But I liked Harmonic Thunder for Saffie Joseph who was 20/1 in the program. The race unfolded nearly as I'd seen it. Bardot at 3/5 near the front and took over heading for home. And he was weakening as he approached the wire. 'Thunder stalked the pace at 12/1 and was ready to roll but when asked, just finished evenly. Fortunately Bardot held on while my win bet dead-heated for fourth. I had a third horse on the ticket at 7/1 but he was dead last. I'm alive heading into the final leg and that would be my BET of the Day.
The seventh was the key to the day. This was an $8K claiming race going a one-turn mile on the main track. And as I commented in my analysis, unless you got a "well, that's horse racing" kind of result, this race went strictly through the favorite, Enlisting. He'd won three of his last four, and the lone loss came when trying the turf. Toss that and he'd won his last three dirt races. He was also a perfect three-for-three at the one-turn mile. Add it that today he went first off the claim for trainer Victor Barboza who wins with an astounding 56% of those and you can see why he was the BET of the Day. He was third early in the going but cruised up on the turn, took over turning for home and won by as many as he wanted. The prime time play netted a return of over $30 and sealed the first Pick 3 winning ticket of the week.
Saturday
With Oaklawn closing their doors last Saturday that left only Tampa and Gulfstream to carry the load for thoroughbred racing (sorry, just don't count Fonner Park in Nebraska or Will Rogers Downs in Oklahoma). I have found Tampa racing to be less predictable, especially in the spring but with no other options I thought I'd look any way. And surprisingly I found several horses that I thought looked legitimate. In fact the one horse on the day that looked like THE most likely winner was running at Tampa. But for the day in Oldsmar I only had one winner, and at 1/5 at that, to go with two seconds and two thirds. The "sure thing".....fifth behind a 17/1 winner. Dismal day on the west coast of Florida. And at Gulfstream I also had just one WIN bet come home. But as the day ended I felt much better about my handicapping because my day actually went like this: 1st - 9th, 2nd - 3rd, 3rd - 4th, 4th - 3rd, 6th - WIN, 7th - WIN, 8th - 2nd, 9th WIN, 10th - WIN, 11th - WIN. So as you see, as the day ended I finished with five winning selections in the last six races and was 2nd in the other. BUT....only one of those came on a straight win bet. No explaining how my 5/2 choice in the opener. In the second it was a 2yo race and I was irritated with myself for backing a Wesley Ward 2yo AGAIN but I was convinced when the DRF's Mike Welsch made him his BEST of the day to go in. Third at 9/5 while the Todd Pletcher horse who got all kinds of attention won at a fair price. Less than a quality ride on the turf in the third when taken to the back off a slow pace. Closed seven wide with a rush, too little, too late in fourth. Cruised up with the perfect trip in the fifth but no finish at 5/1, third. The sixth I liked Todd Pletcher's Riggins. He'd only been eighth in his debut, but that was in MSW company and he'd been fanned very wide turning for home. Today he dropped in for a high $65K price tag and got Irad Ortiz. Came charging down the lane after getting a seam at the top of the stretch and won as the best horse in the race.
Only had the minimum so the payoff of $20 was generous. The seventh began the first of overlapping Pick 3 bets for me. It was a turf sprint for three-year-olds and it looked to me like a speed duel would set up Compensate who was exiting a strong finishing 2nd in the Melody of Colors Stakes a month ago. I put him on the ticket with another finisher and the two speed horses just in case one of them got loose. Sure enough, Foolish Humor at 7/2 went to the front and the other front runner decided not to go with him. Wired the field, holding on desperately to that other front runner - so as they deliberated the photo result I knew (a) I'd lost on my win bet but (b) I was going to be alive in the Pick 3. The 7/2 price meant I would have a nice price if I could cash on the other two legs. The middle leg saw me on Louie's Kingdom who was a prohibitive favorite. He was a standout in the field and was even Caton Bradar's single in the $12 Million Rainbow Pick 6. And he was every handicapper's top choice. Right to the front but took some pressure from a 5/1 outsider. Put that one away into the lane and opened up. Only to be run down by an 11/1 outsider. I had two alternatives as savers on the P3 but he wasn't one of them. In retrospect how I left that guy off is a mystery. The race was a non-winners of two lifetime and I always look for horses running in that condition for the first time. Only two in the field were like that. A 30/1 outsider and another that was the 9/2 fourth choice in the program. EVERYONE overlooked that one and he's the 11/1 winner. I'd used Louie's Kingdom and the other two as the first leg in a second sequence of Pick 3 bets so I was now dead on both tickets. In the ninth, the Sunshine Forever Stakes - a one mile turf event - I went with a 10/1 graded stakes winner to upset the field, but also put in both Todd Pletcher horses and another of the top betting choices, as well as a 40/1 Euro invader. When a couple of scratches were announced I really should have re-handicapped for the win bet because the pace dynamic now left Pletcher's Halladay ALL ALONE on the front end. Sure enough, he wired the field as the 6/5 favorite.
So I had the first and third legs of the first Pick 3 and would have been alive in the second leg of the second set, but was also alive on the final and third ticket. Race ten I didn't have a strong enough opinion on any of the runners to make a win bet because I couldn't toss out Battle of Blenheim but I also didn't think he was throw out. Didn't help my confidence level that in the last five times I'd seen him run I'd bet him three times - lost them all - did not trust him in the others and he won. So I didn't bet him, but DID put him in the Pick 3. He was JUST up in time. I was alive through the second leg.
Note that this would have made two Pick 3 winning tickets in a row had I noted the R8 winner in the nw2L that I left out. They paid $78 and $44. Not life-changing, but would have paid for all the bets on the day. In race eleven I really liked Todd Pletcher's I'll Fight Dempsey. His debut run on Fountain of Youth Day had been sensational. He'd gone wire to wire in a dazzling performance which was validated when the runner-up, a Chad Brown horse came right back to win. When 'Dempsey reappeared in an allowance event going 7f on the first weekend of the spring he was the hot 1/2 favorite. Whether it was the extra furlong, the first time winners, or the sizzling fractions of :44.3 and 1:09.3 that did him in - or a combination - he faded to fourth. BUT....at the six furlong mark he'd actually run faster, on a faster pace than his debut. So today the return to six furlongs pointed him out. And even more important, he was going from open company to state-bred rivals. My only concern for the Pick 3 was that Pletcher had sent out SO many favorites that have gone down the drain. So I looked for alternatives. I put a Tampa invader on all four tickets; I used an impressive last out maiden winner on one ticket, and I used Tap It To Win on two tickets. He'd won impressively in his maiden at Saratoga - that's ALWAYS a good sign. Then he ran in two stakes events, way over his head. Today he was coming off a layoff, but if he ran back to the Saratoga race he was every bit as talented as I'll Fight Dempsey. The Pletcher colt was pressured from the get go but had a head in front going into the turn. But that was it at odds of 9/5, he faded badly. The last out maiden winner took over at 5/1 but in mid-stretch Tap It To Win came flying by to score at better than $12 and clinched the final Pick 3 ticket.
The weather forecast all week had been for a major storm system to move through late Saturday and produce rain nearly all day Sunday, some of it reportedly enough to produce local flooding. But as the week came to it's conclusion the forecasts changed to very late Saturday night for the storm to hit, letting the Saturday card play out as it was set up; and then the majority of the rain was more south of Fort Lauderdale. That meant for me, handicapping the races, big questions as to (a) what surface we'd be on and (b) who would stay in the races. So I basically handicapped fourteen races for the ten race card. An hour before post time when Jason Blewitt and hottie Acacia Courtney came on the air to analyze the card, we were still "Fast and Firm." But within ten minutes of the beginning of the show they were told ALL races were now off the turf. In the opener, originally scheduled for 8f on the turf I had thought if moved to the main track that #9 Bella Gianna could take these wire to wire. She went off at a big 10/1 price and led to the final strides before caught by the favorite. In the second I led to the turn and stopped at 9/5. In the third I liked #8 Tipsy gain on the front end. Much like the first, right to the front, all the way to a head bobbing photo.....second.
Bella Gianna (inside) CAUGHT in the opener - the lovely Acacia - Tipsy (inside) CAUGHT in the third
And so we headed into the middle part of the card. I was 5/1 and completely out of it in the 4th. But finally my fortune changed in the fifth. This nw2L claiming event going a one-turn mile seemed more like a who CANNOT win that several win contenders. And with that in mind Les Tres Jolie "stood out" to me. The two "most likely" win candidates were a 1-for-11 runner who'd given way multiple times on the lead and a Tampa turf winner. As the field approached the far turn - and you can't tell this in the highlight film below because I picked up the action near the top of the lane - Les Tres Jolie was STILL lagging far back. But on the turn she began to run and she caught both my eye and that of Announcer Pete. The top five separated turning for home like the parting of the Red Sea and she stormed through to win going away, at a big 5/1 price. Cashed for $50 and I was very happy.
I passed the sixth, a maiden special event on the dirt. I found it so difficult to find anyone to like that my entire analysis was two sentences...... "Not willing to go in enough to bet but 4-R U Royalty (12/1) has run figures as good as the program choices but unlike his rivals ALL of his came in OPEN MSW events. Goes turf to dirt which is an 0-for-18 angle, ouch." You can guess - won for fun and paid $27 - no bet. Sigh..... Because there's no racing on Monday I spent the morning laying out spread sheets of all the speed figures for the horses in races 7-through-10. After missing the "obvious" 11/1 winner yesterday it occurred to me that an old process I'd used where I looked at only the numbers before handicapping might lead me to some potential price plays in Pick-3 situations. And in this four race sequence I thought I had legitimate runners to lean on. If the 7th came off the turf it seemed very obvious that the one to beat would be #10 Trev. He'd won four straight in three of those his Beyer figures would win by a pole. But if he ran that "other" race he could prove vulnerable. But using the "A-B-C" method of ranking the runners he was clearly an "A" ticket. Three other runners were worthy of minor chances, so I laid out six tickets. Trev was on all six, so if he won I'd have the shorter priced Pick 3 ticket six times. The others I used on two tickets each. Trev dueled to the top of the lane and then pulled away to win by daylight. But the best part was he left the gate somehow at a very inflated 2/1 price AND paid more than $6 so my triple investment netted nearly $50.
I'm a flat-bet winner for the day on win bets now regardless of what happens in the final three races. But more importantly I'm alive in the Pick 3 on ALL six tickets. In race 8, if you tossed the last race for Yodel E.A. Who when stumbling at the gate, and his "awkward start" four back, then four of his six races earned Beyers that would win handily. And he was Ron Nicoletti's BEST Bet. I thought he was a "good bet," but noted he was 0-for-2 at the distance and his three wins had come vs. lesser. So I didn't want to make him a "lone ranger" on any tickets. I thought his main competition would come from #6 Fortune Cookie and #7 Champagneonme. The former was one of those that if you gave him excuses recently he had plenty of back races that would win here AND today he picked up the hot riding Irad Ortiz. The latter had only four dirt races going back to January 2019, and all four put him in the picture. He'd won last time out at 10/1 over Fortune Cookie who was the 3/2 favorite. I used Fortune Cookie on all six tickets and with Yodel E.A. Who, and put Champagneonme on five of the tickets. Played out nearly as I'd envisioned it.....Yodel E.A. Who took command, pressed by Fortune Cookie with Champagneoneme waiting to come late. It was 'Yodel who cracked first and 'Cookie took over. Here came 'Champagne but he couldn't get by. No matter to me as through the final furlong I had them both. Fortune Cookie was the second choice and I was now alive into the final leg of the sequence with SIX tickets.
The ninth was my BEST BET, Frosted Grace, the #2 horse. His last two and three of his last four speed figures would win by a pole. Last time out he'd been caught on the wire by a highly regarded Pletcher sprinter and finished in front of a next out winner. Looked very solid to me. BUT....in looking at just the numbers I gave two others a legitimate enough chance to win in an upset. #4 Whyruawesome had not run numbers good enough to win since last fall when under the care of now suspended trainer Jorge Navarro, but if he ran back to those he was a danger. I put him on two tickets. And the #6 Where Paradise Lay was included strictly based on numbers. I can honestly say that had I not done the spread sheets I'd never have considered him. His numbers were as good as the lower level figures for Frosted Grace but two back he'd been 15/1 against Frosted Grace when he ran second - and he was 7/2 that day. AND it was some five lengths between them. Still, enough numbers to include him on two tickets. Frosted Grace was 4/5 and right out of the gate looked like he didn't want any part of running. Into the far turn he was near the back. Meanwhile a 19/1 front runner was leading them into the lane with a 7/1 hounding him. But then here came Where Paradise Lay with a full head of steam and blew right by. At the furlong marker Frosted Grace woke up and FLEW home to be second, but no threat to the winner. So my chance at having payout six times went down the drain but with a non-favorite winning all three legs I was going to make money.
Next week Charles Town is opening and supposedly so is Churchill Downs. More options!
May 7-11 Gulfstream Highlights
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