Opening Weekend At Churchill Downs

May 14 - 17

I have to admit that it wasn't until the Tuesday following the extended weekend of racing that I realized I'd had an awfully good week of handicapping.  I just had the sense, after winning just three races total over the first two days, that it was an "ok" week of handicapping results.  But I was glad that on Saturday I had the option of playing more than just Gulfstream.  Churchill Downs opened on Saturday and Santa Anita opened on Friday.  And next weekend there will be multiple stakes races at both of those venues, so it will be a more "normal" weekend of selections.  Let's see how this week played out.

Thursday May 14

The week kicked off with a sunny day and I was most happy that my sister Laurie and niece Khloe opted to fly down for two weeks.  We certainly can use some "outside human contact."  I felt badly for them however because the weather forecasts called for a lot, A LOT of rain beginning tomorrow.  But for today we enjoyed the great weather and the fast & firm courses at Gulfstream.  I passed the opener and then, against my better judgement - again - I played a 2yo race only to see my pick run second at 3/1 odds.  In the third it was a turf sprint with a claiming tag for straight three-year-olds.  The race looked to come down to either Sea Lover or Bahamian Prince.  Sea Lover came from the Timothy Hamm barn who has wintered at Tampa but appears to be shifting to the east coast.  And Sea Lover was unbeaten in two starts.  After going wire to wire on the dirt to break his maiden he moved into an allowance turf sprint.  He set torrid fractions and then held on for his second win.  On either surface today he was the pick.  A nearly identical race to his first two resulted.....right to the front at 9/5 odds, on the turn the 7/5 Bahamian Price came to him and they dueled to the 16th pole before he edged clear.  

My selections in the next two races scratched out.  In the 6th I knew I was "hoping" that Todd Pletcher's debut runner would run well because he was debuting in a big field on the grass, but it was a worthy gamble to make some money.  Too far back, 7th at 9/2.  Rand second at a big 7/1 in the seventh race.  I was surprised in the 9th and featured that Bronx Beauty was a non-threatening fourth.  But to be fair he was checked on the backstretch.  In the finale it was another turf event and it looked to be all Cookie Cove.  As I noted in my analysis, it's either Cookie Cove or a "go figure" result.  Had to be concerned with the 0-for-8 resume, but I thought you could reasonably toss five of those.  His best efforts came when on or pressing the lead and with the rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz I thought he'd get that.  Right to the front and never looked back as the easiest of winners.

Friday May 15

Just as hottie weather girl Erika Delgado predicted, the rains came today.  Well, actually they started overnight and continued through most of the day today.  It was sloppy going so all the races came off the inner course but I still liked Gran Old Par who's made his career debut in an off-the-turf sprint at Tampa.  Looked to be the clear speed of the race....on the drop and with the "Minister of Speed," Emisael Jaramillo up.  Sure enough - he was the speed of the speed, but had to duel through the turn through wicked fractions before getting clear.  But that cost him late as he was run down to be fourth as the 1-2 favorite.  In the third we were going two turns, a mile and a sixteenth, on the main track.  With the short tun to the first turn, the inside draw for likely favorite Gauzy would mean, I thought a ground saving trip.  Liked that he'd never been on the grass, so the move to the main track made him even more attractive.  Add in Irad Ortiz and it's a "duh" selection.  Ortiz demonstrated again why he's the top rider in the country as he saved ground to the far turn, got his horse into the clear and let him run free to the wire as easily best.  I'd tripled the bet to make him the "best" of the day.  Unfortunately it was the lone win of the day.  Top pick scratched out of the fourth and passed the fifth.  In the sixth it was a one-turn mile maiden claimer.  I liked Speedy Hans at a fair price.  All but one of his races were sprints, and he showed a patient tracking trip when going two turns at Churchill Downs.  With Ortiz up I thought he'd get a good ride and have a big chance.  Left the gate at a strong 5/1 and pressed the pace in an ideal spot, though a bit wide.  But when asked to kick on to the wire he had nothing left and faded to seventh.  In the seventh "Main Track Only" Paola's Team looked like a standout and everyone agreed as she was the heavy favorite until late in the betting.  In the last three minutes or so the betting money came pouring in on the "other" top choice and those two went at it on the turn, but she was no match and was a well beaten second under the wire.  Passed the next two and then we got a rare stakes event, The Hollywood Wildcat going a mile and a sixteenth.  Obviously the most talented and accomplished 3yo filly in here was Tonalist Shape, but her one bad effort came at this two turn trip.  Granted the field was a lot less today, but I was willing to take a shot on a filly who'd been visually impressive in three straight outings, Up In Smoke.  Left the gate at 5/2 but was never really in it as the favorite, Tonalist Shape dominated.  And the day ended when my pick scratched out of the finale.  We topped off the day by ordering Chinese take-out and posed for a photo op on the pool deck.

Saturday May 16:  Opening Day At Churchill Downs
I was surprised that Gulfstream had THREE stakes today and I had multiple picks, so I was content playing just GP and Churchill.  But was very disappointed when the live stream came up from Louisville that it was raining and we were off the turf.  But today was an "interesting" day at the races, but one that provided some real highlights.  In the Gulfstream opener, taken off the turf going a mile and a sixteenth there were two runners that appeared the most likely winners.  I had a minimum play on the 5/1 third choice who was a non-threatening eighth, but I was alive in the Early Pick 3 with the other who wired the field at 2/1 odds. Descente.  In the third race, a starter allowance going a demanding seven furlongs I thought Saffie Joseph's Moonstone was the "right one."  She'd dueled into the turn, got clear and then was run down by the white-hot Flat Awesome Jenny.  Today I thought she'd be long gone.  My only concern is if there was a speed duel, so on the Pick-3 ticket I played her with the logical closer, Solitary Gem.  Sure enough, cooked on the front end, but the closer - who went off favored - blew by to win for fun.

So heading into the fourth today I was already 0-for-3 (having lost the first bet at Churchill) on straight win bets.  So the P3 came down to my single here, a maiden claiming event going six furlongs.  Panarea I thought was a stand out based on her first career start when third to Tonalist's Shape - who'd now won six of seven including a pair of graded stakes at the Championship Meet and yesterday's Hollywood Wildcat Stakes.  She was down in class today to a level where she was a just-miss second while five clear of the show.  She was third off the shelf with the best figures in the field.  Sent off as the prohibitive 3/5 favorite she pressed the leader to the turn, dueled into the lane and took over.  Challenged, she got about half a length in front when the 7/1 stalker would not take NO for an answer and they hit the wire nearly  simultaneously.  At first glance I thought I'd won, but watching the slow-motion replays it was really too hard to tell.  The photo examination took the longest time, and I was ready to be "ok" with a Dead Heat so I'd at least not lose, then the official announcement, it WAS Panarea by the narrowest of margins....

Suddenly I've had the winner in three of four races, cashed a Pick 3 and a triple investment WIN bet and I'm ahead for the day.  Gotta love racing.  Next up was the fourth at Churchill, a one-turn mile under allowance conditions.  Normally, just another race, but no....this marked the return to the track of champion 2018 three-year-old Monomoy Girl.  She'd not been seen since winning the 2018 Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Distaff as my prime time play in early November, here at Churchill Downs when Kim and I had been joined by Keith, Sue & Dan for the weekend.  She boasted a record of ten wins from twelve starts and one of those losses had come via DQ in the Grade 1 Cotillion in one of the most egregious disqualifications in the history of the sport.  Today you wouldn't fault her for not being primed for a big shot because you KNOW she's got bigger targets down the road, but I've also found with such superstars boasting such records the connections are not going to readily accept a blemish just to "get one under her belt," so I anticipated a big effort.  She was between horses and had no where to run heading into the turn.  But then a seam opened for jockey Florent Geroux to get her to the outside and make "the move."  She accelerated with ease to the front.  For the briefest of moments I wondered if she would accelerate away as she didn't immediately open up.  But then she switched leads and ran away as easily, EASILY the best.  Watch the highlight video at the bottom of the page - it was cool that someone filmed the stretch run live - with the massive grandstand completely empty - and you get the feeling that I was actually there to watch the race.  Monomoy Girl was the BET of the Weekend and lived up to the billing.

I thought that the 1-2 odds were very generous as I cashed out for $45.  Right back in the fifth at Gulfstream where the race was a 7f entry level allowance - originally scheduled to go 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf around two turns, this now played into the hands of Glass Ceiling, a "Main Track Only" runner.  Off since January and stepping up a notch in class I thought she was clearly the one to beat.  Right to the front and handled very confidently throughout as she breezed home much the best at even money odds.

Unfortunately that did it for the day at Gulfstream in terms of straight up WIN bets.  In the 6th, the Roar Stakes for sophomores going 6 1/2 furlongs Green Light Go was the 3/5 choice and he was making what looked to be a winning move between horses when the unofficial winner veered into his path and he had to check.  No INQUIRY sign so the rider objected and they looked at it....seen worse and less go both ways.  No change.  Sigh.  Scratched out in the seventh.  Then in the eighth I ran 3rd at 7/2 but in the Pick-3 I didn't have the 5/1 winner.  But in the next two legs I correctly selected the 11/1 upset winner of the off-the-turf Powder Break Stakes in Jakarta and the wire-to-wire 3/1 winner of the Musical Romance in Lady's Island.  Chalk up two more "wins" on the stat sheet, but I didn't cash the Pick-3.  The payout for the $0.50 investment I'd made was over $225, and you have to figure it would have been a touch less since my pick in the first leg was 7/2 and the winner was 5/1.  But it would have been a nice one.  Sigh.....

In the midst of that sequence the seventh at Churchill Downs was a Maiden Special going six furlongs.  Bill Mott is long known for NOT having his horses ready at first asking, so when they run big, you pay attention next time out.  Say Moi had run a big second to Chad Brown's ultra impressive winner at Gulfstream, earning an 80 Beyer.  Figured tough in here.  Pressed to the top of the lane and took over like she'd run away.  Opened up by four lengths but started to get tired in the final 16th.  Too late for anyone to catch her and I cashed for more than $25 on my last winner of the day.

Thought I had one more when John Velazquez took another Mott runner, Miss T Too right to the front and was clear at 5/1, only to be caught in the final fifty yards.  Closed out the day at Gulfstream when the favorite looked to be either the winner, or a "go figure."  Right to the front at even money, long gone, until not when caught in the final fifty yards as well.  Sigh.....

Sunday May 18
Today saw me ring up the winners, and I don't know how you'd have "fixed" the problem that arose that cost me some winnings, but at least I cashed.  The stories from today......I was a smart fellow when I passed the opener, a 5f turf sprint taken off as was the fourth today which was scheduled at a mile on the grass.  The later races, with the sunny early afternoon weather were on the green.  In the second I had the 6/5 favorite who took the lead into the lane but was caught late by a 24/1 upsetter.  Again, smart to NOT play the early double or use this race in a Pick 3.  I did play a P3 for races 3-thru-5 however.  In the third it was a $35K claiming sprint for sophomores and you could make a case for all of them on their "A" game.  So could you make a strong enough case that one of them was more likely to run that race than the others?  I thought so with R U Lucky who had won two back against stronger $50K claimers for trainer Saffie Joseph.  The problem with him was what to make of his last race when very dull?  Well, take your pick...the move to allowance company, the four wide trip, or the big effort in the previous race - or all three.  Off the shelf today with hot-riding Irad Ortiz AND a bullet work.  Pressed the pace to the top of the lane and edged clear for the win.  I'd singled him in the Pick 3 - I'm ALIVE!

The fourth was now off-the-turf, a maiden special going a mile and a sixteenth and my second choice on the turf had been Todd Pletcher's Unrighteous who had big numbers but had not ever been on the grass.  With the move to the main track he was a standout to me.  The only "problem" was he was drawn wide with the run to the first turn but I figured he'd get over relatively soon.  Nope.  Was four or five wide through the first turn and all the way down the backstretch until Ortiz made his move.  Closed in on the leaders entering the far turn and was "only" three wide.  Got to the front turning for home and for a couple of strides you wondered if the trip had taken it's toll but then he let it out a notch and ran away as easily best....and I was alive into the final leg of the Pick 3.

Back to a regularly scheduled main track event, a non-winners of two lifetime on the main going a one-turn mile.  I thought this race was very much like the previous - it was either going to be one of the top two favorites, Geonosis and Red Flag, or it was a "go figure" kind of race.  The problem was, both had "issues" to go with their positive angles.  Geonosis had the rail, looked fast and forwardly placed, and had the best figures.  BUT, all the best figures came in one-turn sprints and his lone try at this one-turn mile was a disaster.  Red Flag on the other hand had more turf races than dirt, but his last two numbers at this one-turn mile had earned figures within a couple lengths of the top one.  I played a small win bet on Geonosis and used both with the two singles in the Pick 3.  Right to the front with Geonosis and midway on the turn when Announcer Pete called, "and now the distance question will have to be answered," he ran away easily to win.  Cashed my third consecutive WIN ticket AND the Pick 3 ticket.

Next up was an entry level turf event that just had too many questions.  I had put on my analysis sheet that I'd play a Pick 3 but decided there were just too many variables and passed the race.  Good thing because the winner was an 11-1 upset.  In the seventh Todd Pletcher was sending out what looked like a prohibitive favorite in Sniper Shot.  After a debut win with a low figure he'd earn a big number for a second place try at Keeneland.  Off the shelf he was slated to face ultra-talented Hidden Scroll this winter but that one scratched at the gate and he ran big again.  Last time out he was a best of the rest second with a good number.  Today he was stretching from 7f to a mile and he just looked like CLEARLY the best runner.  He was the WIN play, and a triple investment.  For purposes of the Pick 3 I thought his stablemate, Legit was a fair gamble and another price play was tossed on a couple tickets, just in case.  He tracked a fast pace to the turn took over and opened up with a "YOWZA" kind of effort.  Ultra-impressive.

Cashed for $30 and he was on all five of my P3 tickets.  The 8th on the turf was a difficult race to decipher so I had five runners on my ticket.  Of them I liked two more than the others and had them on all five tickets, then had the others on two tickets in various combinations.  But right after the running of the Sniper Shot race it was announced that the race was coming off the turf.  With one race in the books there was no altering the ticket now.  And then the scratches started to mount up.  I don't know how they could have handled the situation, and not being a regular P3 player I don't know how it "typically" is handled.  But by the time they went to the post it was a 10 furlong dirt race with four runners instead of a twelve furlong three-turn turf race with eight runners.  I had three of the runners on my Pick 3 ticket and would "cash" on the scratches but if I'd been able to, with only four runners and with three of my horses scratched I obviously would have played an "ALL" ticket.  I honestly was surprised that this wasn't what was "given" as a consolation.  Because even for me, on the one ticket where I only had the top two runners, it seemed grossly unfair that I was "stuck" with two "live" horses going 10f on the dirt when I'd bet them for 12f on the grass.  But, what are you going to do.  You can guess...yes, I had three of the four covered and the other one won wire to wire.

My only hope now is to get one of the three runners in the final leg home so I get to cash the "consolation" Pick 3 tickets.  Todd Pletcher was sending out Spinoff in this the Sunday Silence Stakes going nine furlongs on the main track.  The race was named after Breeders' Cup Champion Sunday Silence who won the Breeders' Cup Classic in 1989 right here at Gulfstream over champion Easy Goer in an "epic" match.  We were there for that day, the first Breeders' Cup we'd ever been to and it was really, REALLY something.

For the purposes of the Pick 3 I also thought that if Spinoff got caught up in a speed duel or went too fast early both Just Whistle and You're To Blame could run him down.  The former I had on three of the tickets.  The latter on just one ticket.  And I had the rail horse who left the gate at 5/2 and the apparent lone speed on three tickets.  Played out as I thought and turning for home Spinoff took over.  But as he turned for home he lost several lengths when floating wide into the lane.  Now maybe that was strategic knowing that Just Whistle was gearing up with a late bid, or maybe it wasn't.  But in mid-stretch he caught him.  But then Spinoff edged clear again and I thought I was home.  But in the final fifty yards Just Whistle accelerated JUST enough to outfinish him and I lost the WIN bet but won the Pick 3.

Lost money on the total play because of two of the tickets did not have scratched horses - not right - but I was thankful to cash the ticket non-the-less.  Passed the 10th when moved to the main track and the same with the finale.  But all afternoon I kept going back and forth about the featured Grade 3 Desert Stormer at Santa Anita.  I hadn't handicapped the race (or purchased the Daily Racing Form Past Performances) but I knew Bellafina SHOULD win.  She would have been an automatic bet except the few public handicappers I found picks from had mixed feelings and liked the upset candidates.  Finally right before the featured Sunday Silence I made the choice to play the race.  Bellafina had been out fourteen times with six wins and was a multiple Grade 1 winner.  BUT, she'd faltered many times as the favorite.  Three weeks ago she was a strong "play against" when running at Oaklawn in the Carousel Stakes.  Why?  Because at Santa Anita she had started six times with four wins and two seconds - and both of those seconds had come in Gr 1 events behind top horses.  ALL of her losses that were not 2nd place finishes had come out of town.  Now she was home, with a race under her belt - which, because of the pandemic suspending racing in So Cal, none of the others had.  So I made the bet.  We were playing cards when they went into the gate and I watched it live on TVG.  Stalked the pace to the turn and ran away.  Oh I'm so smart :)

Cashed for nearly $30 to close the day.  And as I started this journal entry, it wasn't until Monday that I actually went through the stats for the week.  And oh my, what a week it was:

May 14-17 Racing Highlights

Two last items.....a new "thing" on Facebook this weekend was creating your own "avatar," so of course I joined in with several of my FB pals :)

And finally, maybe just MAYBE this pandemic thing is winding down.  It was announced this week that beginning on Monday Broward County and Miami-Dade County could join the rest of the state and begin to "open up" under the guidelines given by the state of Florida.  One of those was that restaurants would open with occupancy capped at 50% and social distancing.  So we made dinner reservations for Monday evening and the four of us went to the Sawgrass Mills Mall to have dinner at the Rainforest Cafe....like REAL people :)