Apple Blossom - Rainbow Pick 6 Payout Week

Truly the "story" of the week is that there really were NOT any stories.  Something that is quite unusual in my world.  Well, I guess that's not entirely accurate because the "leading stories" on the first two days of racing were about losses and on the "big day" of racing - Saturday - that I didn't fare so well (zigged when I should have zagged) which led to the final day which DID have a very interesting story.  Here's how it all played out....don't blink, you may miss the first three days of this week's chronicle!

Thursday April 16

After having consecutive weeks where I cashed a large payout on a Pick-3 I was excited to get back to the races - virtually of course - but I was very, very cognizant of not forcing a bet where one didn't exist.  I was excited for the week to kick off because both today and Friday had the first two juvenile races of the season.  At this time of the year when the two-year-olds run at Keeneland it's virtually as simple as finding the Wesley Ward trainee.  So I was curious to see if the Spring/Summer Meet here at Gulfstream - with no Keeneland racing due to the pandemic - was REALLY going to reflect the Keeneland spring meet.  Sure enough on both days there was a highly regarded Ward 2yo in the field who figured to take some serious beating.  Even before I began to actually handicap I KNEW that the "dilemma" would be EITHER you assume that his 2yo's will run like they do at Keeneland and you'd probably get a slightly better price here because you know many handicappers felt the way I did, or you looked for value and assumed that until Ward proved his 2yo could run here like they do at KEE that they'd be vulnerable.  I leaned toward the former.  And once I looked at the Form his starter just looked formidable.  Well, ok, so NONE of the runners (obviously) had been out, but the works were sizzling, the draw was good, and he'd enlisted hot-riding Tyler Gaffalione.  In the 2nd on Thursday was the first of the 2yo races.  Lime left the gate as a prohibitive 1/5 favorite.  Gunned right to the front and literally within five jumps was five lengths clear.  As they hit the turn and Tyler G was sitting chilly I was thinking, "I KNEW I was right" and smiled.  Then as they approached the top of the lane the second choice was still in the hunt.  Gaffalione asked for Lime to finish the job and she didn't spurt away.  Uh oh.  Run down in the final strides.  WOW.  I told Kim minutes later that "we'll find out tomorrow about the Ward runners - was this an exception or would his 2yo not be the same here?"  Ran third in the third race and that brought us to the fourth, a nw2L sprint.  As I wrote, it was hard to have confidence in any of these, but there was one and one ONLY runner who'd never been in a two-lifetime event, Probably Grace.  AND what appealed to me was this....She'd debuted with a win at Hawthorne in Chicago then shipped here and run a very close 2nd.  BOTH those races came under the care of trainer Larry Rivelli.  She was claimed out of that second start but ran poorly in both her next two.  And, she was claimed out of each.  But out of the last it was Rivelli who re-claimed here for $12.5K.  Dropped her into this $6.25K - I assumed because he figured she'd win and he'd recoup most of the claim money.  She went off at a lucrative 9/2 price but was a step slow out of the gate.  Hustled into third then cruised up to challenge the 22/1 leader and drew off.  Doubled the bet and cashed for nearly $60 which almost covered the six losing selections on the day.

Friday April 17
Missed in the opener and in the second, the two-year-olds were lining up and the Wes Ward favorite, Golden Pal looked even stronger than the filly did on Thursday.  Went off at a "better" price of 1-2 and again Gaffalione shot to the front.  COMPLETELY in control turning for home, and then again the second choice - from the same owners and trainer and jockey - blew by to beat him.  OK, so I was wrong.....be careful with the Ward 2yo, not nearly as good in the Florida sunshine than they are in the spring time at Keeneland in Lexington.  In the fourth I had a Saffie Joseph horse with Tyler G again.  The 8/5 favorite stalked to the turn then pulled up.  Then fifth at 7/5 and 2nd at 4/5 before closing the day in second - AGAIN - as the even money favorite.  Not a day I'll remember down the line.

Saturday April 18:  Apple Blossom Day

I was excited for the races today - not so much because of my picks, but the Grade 1 Apple Blossom has always been one of my favorite races of the year.  And we've been fortunate to be in Hot Springs not once but twice for the big event.  The day at Gulfstream saw me go 0-for again, but I had two Pick-3 races where I won both the first two legs with the "other" horse only to come up short in the final leg.  At Oaklawn I won the third, a Maiden Special with Too Pretty with a minimum bet.....

In the fifth I liked a 3yo in this maiden claiming sprint who figured hard to get by, but she scratched.  I looked at my analysis and I'd said that Skyvalue was a logical favorite and certainly the one to beat.  So even with the way the day was going I doubled the bet.  Wire to wire and I had my second winner of the afternoon in Hot Springs.

Scored with my "best of the day" at Oaklawn with Bob Baffert's Dessman who run in some big time events as a three-year-old last year out west.  If he was half-way ready he'd win.  He tracked the leaders in fourth to the far turn but wasn't "doing it on his own," and jockey Martin Garcia had to really get after him.  But once he swung into the clear on the outside he found another gear and it became just a matter of by how much when he'd get to the front.

The day ended with two losses in the two featured events where I SHOULD have had a nice score in the first of them.  In the Grade 3 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap Whitmore was going for his fourth win of this event.  He LOVES Hot Springs and ALWAYS runs big here.  He was a likely winner.  But this year with all the other tracks being closed, the race had drawn a stellar field.  And one of them was Bill Mott's Hidden Scroll.  In my opinion the jury was still out on him.  In his two wins he'd been sensational and as TVG analyst Scott Hazelton said prior to the race, he might just be in a class of his own going one turn, and we could be watching the launching of a superstar season.  When he went off at 7/2 I was glad I'd taken him on the "promise" of how good he might be.  Nope.  Faded while the obvious choice, Whitmore blew by to win going away AND paid 3/1 on the board.  WOW.  Would have made the day.  Then in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom it looked to be a hot pace to set up for a closer and I gave Street Band one more chance.  The pace was wicked and she was closing.  But only for third.  So ended the day.

Sunday April 19:  Mandatory Rainbow Pick-6 Payout Day
When I handicapped the card on Saturday I wasn't aware and/or paying any attention to the fact that today was going to be a mandatory payout.  And honestly with the way the week had gone I was just hoping to win one race, maybe even two :)  But by Sunday morning the racing headlines were all about how the the pool would soar for more than five or six million.  So I sat down and went through my picks and compared them to what the four public handicappers had to say.  Then I thought I'd put together a ticket with out considering the cost.  What would my ticket look like if I really thought I had a chance to win?  Before I tell that story, I had two outright winners.  After running 4th in the second, third in the fourth and a dismal 8th in the fifth it was time for my "best" bet Bareeqa in a starter optional claimer on the turf going a mile.  The conditions called for runners who'd run for $16K and she'd beaten better than that of late.  She stalked the pace in fourth to the top of the lane, swung out into the clear and wore down the leader (my other pick in the Pick-6) and I finally had a winning pick at Gulfstream!

And in the ninth I was pretty confident I had "THE WINNER" in another starter event.  The conditions here read, "....for four year olds and up who have raced for $8K since April 1, 2019...." and my pick, Yes I See had only run for that tag once, winning on April 5th.  This race was written for her I was certain.  Fortunately she was NOT the favorite and she was my SINGLE in the Pick 6 so I felt a lot of pressure.  But the way she was moving on the turn I was confident.  Made her move and blew by to score and I cashed for nearly $40!

The story of the Rainbow Pick 6:  Gulfstream announced that they would have a mandatory payout and two things about that.  When that happens the jackpot becomes absolutely GI-NORMOUS; and because it's a mandatory payout the payout is always shared.  They do this every so often once the pot swells because the rules are you ONLY win the whole thing if you are the ONLY one with the single winning ticket.  If more than one person hits six of six then you split 70% of the pot and 30% carries over.  Heading into Sunday the carryover was $1.9 MILLION.  Every time they have a mandatory payout like this with that kind of carry-over the pool goes well over $5 million for the winners to share.  So I went back and forth about playing because two years ago at the Florida Derby I had five out of six and there have been a couple of times that IF I was willing to spend a little more money I would have it for a BIG prize.  So I put together a ticket.  Even with the bet being a twenty CENT wager, you don't have a reasonable chance to win unless you have several horses in several races.  But the trick is to "spread" with several races where the winner is less predictable and to find at least one race where you think you have a "single" so your ticket cost is not ungodly.  The sequence began in Race 6 where my "best" Bareeqa won and paid $4.20.  In Race 7 I thought there were two obvious win candidates with one who could upset the field.  Played all three.  Sure enough, the "upset" pick won and paid $9 so that would eliminate the small ticket players who played mostly favorites.  In the eighth race I thought it was a wide open affair and after going over and over it I "narrowed" it down to five runners, which also inflated the price of the ticket.  Was glad I did because it was one of the upsets in the sequence but I HAD the $15.40 winner.  I should tell you at this point in the story that by the time the Pick-6 started the pool closed at somewhere slightly over $8 million!  Race 9 was THE RACE.  I played only Yes I See and as I said above, she was NOT the favorite.  Paid $7.20 and I'm still ALIVE.  With the upset in the 8th and the single in the 9th I knew I'd be in a much more narrow group of possible winners.  In the next-to-last race it seemed like a WIDE open affair.  I thought there were three "likely" winners but I had put five on my ticket.  Good thing, one of those won and paid $15.40.  Even more people wiped out of their chance at a big pay day and now we were down to the final race.  Of ALL the six races I thought it was THE most difficult and even though it really ballooned the price of the ticket I included SEVEN of the ten runners.  In that group of seven I had the #2 and the #10.....and as they turned for home I was on the lead with the 2 and had the closing 10 coming down the middle of the turf course with a full head of steam.

I have to tell you at this point a very important part to the story....when I put this ticket together I KNEW it would be costly, but I also thought when I began constructing it that the payoff would more than justify it IF I hit it.  The cost of playing a sequence of 2x3x5x1x5x7 for twenty cents came out to $210.  ANd when I had finished I went over and over the ticket and then talked to Kim.  I would be willing to go in for $50, maybe even $75 with a more than fair chance to win.  But $200 was a bit more than I wanted to spend.  What to do?  Because you KNOW what would happen if I didn't play the ticket.  But one miss and I'm out $200.  Back and forth....finally I made my decision.  I'd cut the ticket down and take my chances for just $21.  On the actual ticket I bet I got knocked out in the second leg because I only played the two horses, not all three.  But as the afternoon went on and my "big ticket" continued to be alive I began to have real mixed feelings.  So NOW you can imagine what I felt like in mid-stretch when I was on the lead and had the closing horse on the outside with all the momentum.  I HAD the winning Pick-6 ticket that would pay THOUSANDS and I didn't play.  OH NO.....but the horse on the rail slipped by my front-running #2 and my closer #10 couldn't catch him.  I would NOT have won.....I "saved" the $200 by not betting (as I thought might happen) but oh I was sooooo close and I would have been sick.  Here's the ticket I created:

Despite several non-favorites winnign there were a considerable amount of people who split the pot.  If you got six out of six.....

Now $20,158.94 is nothing to sneeze at and IF I'd played for $210 that wold MORE than have made for a profitable play.  But the last time they had a mandatory payout it paid $200,000 to those who shared it.  Of course there were more longshots that most bettors didn't have.  The two outright winners I had made me a profit for the day - a whopping two dollars - but hey, considering the way the week had gone, I was delighted!

Oaklawn Mile Week

Week 2:  April 9 - 12

The second week of the Spring/Summer racing season at Gulfstream was another really interesting, and profitable one.  And like all racing days and weeks, full of great stories!  Let's get right to it.

Thursday April 9
The opener for Week 2 required you to make some decisions....the most likely winner, I thought, had conflicting evidence as to supporting him or not AND he was nearly certain to be a short price.  So did you back him any way, did you look elsewhere, or did you simply watch?  Magical Mike was sent out by the red-hot Saffie Joseph barn, winning at 44% overall and was dropping from MSW into this $16K spot today.  He was taking blinkers off, a 26% winning move and jockey Victor LeBron had won with five of ten mounts for the barn.  All good.  BUT, ironically the most powerful class move in racing (MSW to MC) had produced an 0-for-11 result for Joseph.  What?  Just an anomaly or a reason to look elsewhere.  For me I thought it was the former and I went with him.  The only one who appeared to be a legitimate threat had already dropped to this level and didn't improve.  LeBron gave the colt a great ride, saving ground all the way through the far turn then tipping into the clear as heads turned for home and powering home.

The only surprise was that somehow his price floated up in the late stages of betting to better than 2/1 and it allowed my minimum play to return more than $15.  A great way to start the week.  Lost my next pick to scratch, then in the third I had the 7/5 favorite who came rallying late in another maiden claimer on the turf, too late, 2nd.  In the third - another MC on the turf - I got the perfect trip at 7/1 when third into the lane but had no punch, fading to eighth behind a 25/1 winner.  Passed the sixth.  In the seventh the first thing that caught my eye was the entry of Dominate Themoment who had been a BIG winner for me at 8/1 last time out.  That day the field was made up on runners who'd only won their maiden and all the others had broken theirs for $25 or less while he'd broken his for $50K but got DQ'd then came right back to beat $50K rivals again.  He was much the best that day.  I typically don't like to bet 3yo claiming events, and even less a sophomore who just won.  But it was virtually the same field and the other likely winner was a Mike Maker horse he'd beaten soundly last time out.  The two of them hooked up through the stretch and it was close, but I got the win again.  Cashed for over $25.

In the 8th I went for the gusto with a price play on the lead but went to fast (:22 and :45 going a mile on the turf) and paid for it fading to seventh.  Third at 2/1 in the 9th and was completely outrun in the finale at 2/1.  So two wins, but a minimal loss and an entertaining day.

Friday April 10
It was a week ago today that I had my BIG day with the Pick 3.  I tried to look for opportunities there weren't any.  In retrospect I have mixed feelings about playing the early daily double.  The reason I played the early multi-race bet - and to be fair it was a $1 play for a whopping $3 - was because I didn't have a pick in either race.  Since I was going to be watching I thought it was a "reasonable play" to provide some interest and I had a more-than-fair chance to win.  On the other side, easy to say in retrospect, I didn't have any one in either bet I felt confident in so why play a multi-race wager?  Maybe if I'd had a bet in one of the two.  I won the opening leg, not with the favorite, then had the odds-on choice in the second but he ran fourth.  You win some, you lose some I guess.  My pick in the third was on the turf but again I didn't like any of the main body runners so my choice was the Main Track Only.  Stayed on the turf so I lost the play.  The fourth then provided the first wagering opportunity of the day.  This was a high end $50K maiden claimer and Bird Map had made two starts as a juvenile and earned identical Beyers in those Kentucky tries (at two different tracks) off for a short break she returned in her 3yo debut and was a rallying 4th in another MSW, here with the winner coming right back to win.  Even a repeat of that effort made the logical favorite hard to beat and any improved forward movement - on the drop for a first time tag - with Luis Saez up for trainer Norm Casse, and she'd be a daylight winner.  She was off slowly and spotted the field at least five lengths, but she proved best by wearing down the 2nd choice (at 7/2) through the stretch.

I thought the 8/5 price was more than generous and with my triple event I collected nearly $40 with my first win bet and score of the day.  Ran 4th as the 9/5 choice in the next, with a minimum bet.  Then I thought I had a price play when I agreed with the DRF's Marty McGee that there was a ton of speed in the sixth and Killa Dee looked to run them all down late - AND he was 10/1 in the program.  Well, as is often the case the way the race looked on paper is not how it played out.  First, 'Bee was pounded at the windows down to 3/1 and second, jockey Paco Lopez broke sharply and took it to the field.  At first I just shook my head, but as they turned for home and was on a clear lead I was thinking I had made a "smart bet."  But in the final 50 yards two rivals got their heads in front.  Close, no cigar.  Missed with a minimum play in the seventh before cashing my second bet of the day.  The eighth was an entry level allowance for 3yo and it had the look of a "Keeneland race" where they all looked to have some talent.  My top choice was Shug McGaughey's Finding Fame.  It's widely known (in handicapping circles) that this Hall of Fame trainer rarely has them ready to roll first time out, much less WIN first time out.  And in watching the replay of her decisive score you COULD make the case that she'd benefited from a quick pace flow with a multiple front runners knocking each other out of contention.  But for me, the way she blew by, coupled with the fact it was a McGaughey firster told me that she might be something special.  She was stretching out to a one-turn mile today but as a daughter of champion Honor Code the distance didn't look to be a problem for the $425K sales grad.  She tracked the leaders between horses - difficult for a lightly raced runner to do - made a bid, but was repelled.  Well, that's that I thought, but then she came on again and edged clear to score at a nice 2/1 price.

Cashed for nearly $35 and I was very confident of getting a third win in the finale.  R Man Joe had led to the final jump in a stakes race last time out - AS A MAIDEN - and now dropped back into the maiden ranks today.  He was outrun to the front - probably due to his wide draw in post eleven.  But I anticipated this and thought it would lead to a very comfortable trip.  It did, he took over and looked clear until caught in the shadow of the wire.  Had to be content with a profitable day to close out the week and heading into Saturday's races.

Saturday April 11:  Oaklawn Mile Day

Saturday....what a day for payoffs!  AND full of stories, get another drink and settle in for these tales that are ALL GOOD in the end :)  The first sequence of stories are all about losses I suffered, but at the end of the day I could tell them with a smile on my face.  And just to frame the day's events, flash back to last weekend.  Coming off of a big Friday I cashed one and one only ticket from the combined Gulfstream & Oaklawn cards as a parade of longshots came in.  So the opener at Gulfstream saw me taking what looked to be a longshot in Bolt who drew the rail in a turf sprint under Emisael Jaramillo and was listed at 12/1 in the program.  Immediately bet to favoritism with the first flash of the board he left the gate as the 2/1 favorite.  Well, "left the gate" isn't accurate as he was away slowly, never made the lead and was steadied not once but twice before finishing a well beaten 11th.  But the winner was a 70/1 longshot, with the 2nd through 4th place finishers going off at odds of 22/1, 10/1 and 11/1.  That triggered a $1 exacta worth $1300, a $0.50 trifecta worth over $9000, and a superfecta that paid $52,500 FOR A DIME.  YOWZA.  But we were far from done.  In the second I had a Saffie Joseph drop down who was everyone's single and left the gate at 1/5 - the most predictable winner on the card.  Nope, too far back and just missed with his late rally when 2nd.  The winner - 34/1.  The superfecta with a 1/5 in second (over 17/1 and 60/1) was $300 for a dime and the $2 Daily Double paid $1500.  In the third I had the 9/5 favorite, who tracked the longshot leader, cruised up on the turn ready to roll by without being asked, but couldn't get by.  The winner was 36/1 setting off another set of big balloon payments.  Finally in the 4th I was able to cash.  And as I told Kim, I KNEW I'd win the next two bets on the sheet.  Why?  Because I'd also lost the opener at Oaklawn to an $11 winner and ALL four of my bets had been added money bets.  The next two plays were both minimum bets.  Sure enough, Enzoexpress dueled inside, was headed turning for home but then re-rallied to draw off and win at a nice $7.40 price.  Right after that at Oaklawn Miss Imperial stalked the leaders, blew by at the top of the stretch and widened through the lane to score as the 8/5 favorite.

Still, even though they were not big payouts and I only had the minimum I wasn't too far behind on the ledger and was suddenly 2-for-6...my typical 33%.  In the fifth at Gulfstream I went with a Chad Brown first time starter on the turf who ran a disappointing 6th at 4/1.  The winner was the 8/5 favorite, who I did not like at all.  So, with the first five races in the books at Hallandale we'd had winners that paid $148.40, $70.00, $75.20, $7.40, and $5.40.  If you had spent fifty cents on the Pick 5, and had it - which someone did - you cashed....for FIFTY CENTS mind you.....for $52,000!  OH MY!

Next up was the third from Oaklawn, a Maiden Special sprint.  Skol Factor figured to be the obvious favorite and would be REALLY hard to look past.  In his debut he'd run second, beaten a mere neck behind a talented Steve Asmussen colt in a smoking quick time of 1:09 and change.  The Beyer he earned of 83 was daylight clear of the par for the course and was the ONLY figure on the page that was better than the par number.  Right to the front and drew off looking like the real deal in another wickedly fast final time of 1:09.3.  Tripled the bet so I scored for nearly $30 as somehow he went off at almost even money, wow.

Moving on to the 6th story and despite the way the day turned out I'm still kicking myself.  The sixth was a maiden special event for three-year-olds and those with experience did little for me.  I liked, again, a Chad Brown first time starter.  And as I remarked in my analysis, unlike the last race pick this one - Mister Winston - showed several bullet works and was listed at a nice 9/2 price.  After I'd made my pick I looked at what the DRF's Mike Welsch and Gulfstream's Ron Nicoletti had said.  Welsch put the Also Eligible runner, Ima Pharoah, a second time starter from Todd Pletcher's barn on top - even as an AE.  And Nicoletti made his pick from the body of the race, but then he noted....in bold print, underlined and italicized that if Ima Pharoah got in he became the top pick.  WOW, how good must this colt be.  And so I added that if he got in I'd want to look at the payoffs.  So in my initial thinking I was NOT making him an automatic move to the top of the betting chart play.  Sure enough there were two scratches and he got in.  I looked at the payoffs for doubles, pick 3 and pick 4 plays and Ima Pharoah was the overwhelming choice.  I hesitated and then switched my bet.  As they turned for home he was dueling between runners as four were across the track.  He really fought gamely and kept his head in front all the way to the final jumps before a stalker circled the four of them and got up in the shadow of the wire.....yes it was.  Yes, Mister Winston.  And not at 9/2 but at a big 9/1 price.  Oh I was sick.  With the $10 bet I'd have cashed for over $100.  Luckily I'd earmarked this sequence of events as my lone Pick 3 of the day.  I went back to tell Kim that "I'd better hit the Pick 3 or I'm going to be REALLY upset!"

The seventh was a claiming event on the turf.  In late February Derby Champagne ran in a mile and a sixteenth event against Soglio who was odds-on that day.  And deservedly so.  He'd run in six stakes in his previous seven starts, four of them graded and he would have been odds-on in here.  But what caught my attention was that despite being 12/1 that day Derby Champagne was second to Soglio, beaten a mere neck.  A run back to that effort or to four of his past five Beyers would require a career best to defeat him.  That made him the single play in the Pick 3 but was only willing to double the investment because the last time he'd seen the winner's circle was 2018.  He was tracking the leaders into the stretch, shifted into the clear and was rolling late.  Tyler Gaffalione cut it close but was up in time and actually was confidently handling him through the final 100 yards.

Now, all we needed to do was get home the final leg and I had a very strong favorite in the eighth, a maiden special event going a one-turn mile.  Chad Brown's Per Capita had run twice and earned identical Beyer figures of 81.  That's significant on two fronts....first, that's a pole better than par for this level of racing (74) and second, both figures were better than a pole plus than any number earned by the rest of the field, all of which were below par.  The ONLY concern was that he'd not been out for several months, but that was mitigated by Brown's 28% win number with layoff runners.  Still, as I noted in my analysis, were this still the Championship Meet I'd feel more conflicted because Todd Pletcher was sending out a first time starter who had drawn over $1.2 Million at the sales auction and was working strongly.  I made the Brown runner the pick but in the Pick-3 I backed myself up with the Pletcher runner.  The Pletcher colt, Colonel Liam, went right to the front and led into the lane.  Per Capta tracked him, swung outside to engage him and edged clear about the sixteenth pole.  But Colonel Liam fought back and just as he was about to draw even along the rail Per Capita shifted inward and Luis Saez had to steady.  Per Capita drew off to win, but you knew the INQUIRY sign was coming up.  I quickly went to get Kim and had her watch the replay with me for a couple of very unique reasons.  First, I've seen far worse let go by the stewards, but it seemed like he'd come down.  But here's the thing....if Per Capita remained the winner and I had the WIN ticket and the Pick 3, I'd collect about half of what I'd get if he was DQ'd.  They looked at it for a long time and finally, down he came.  I graciously forfeited my winning ticket to DOUBLE my Pick 3 amount which was nearly $300!  WHOOOO HOOOOO.

Only at the races....and how clever am I.....I ran second when I SWITCHED my bet and HAD the $21 winner; won; and then won but was DQ'd and STILL hit the Pick 3.  GO ME!  Had a short break to celebrate and drink my wine (see above).  And then my next selection was in a MSW going a mile and a sixteenth at Oaklawn for three-year-olds.  Earner had post a big 86 Beyer in his debut, sprinting at the Fair Grounds.  And he was, get this, a DOZEN lengths clear of the show runner.  He just needed to get the distance, but as a son of Gr 1 winner Carpe Diem I wasn't concerned.  Swooped up on the far turn and drew off impressively for my sixth winning ticket of the afternoon.

Second at Gulfstream with a horse who I've seen multiple times.  He lost twice for me as a maiden, then scored when I went against him.  Went against him twice at the Championship Meet, he won both times.  Took him today....of course he lost.  Now it was time for the two featured races of the afternoon.  First up was the non-conditioned allowance feature at Gulfstream going six furlongs.  Like last week, yesterday when driving home from Coral Springs and listening to Sports Talk Radio they had the guy who's had a lot of success with longshots lately.  He explained the loss last week, which I had bought into (had not bet him to win).  He then gave out the pick for this week and it was in this race.  As soon as I scanned the past performances I thought "he's on to something here."  Princess Causeway was listed at 8/1 in the program.  She was a dead closer with a lot of back class.  There was a lot, A LOT of speed signed on which should set her up.  She had jockey Chris Landeros who I wrote about alot as he went 107 races in a row without winning.  And I'd just said something to Kim on Wednesday that he had started the meet 0-for-5.  BUT he brought home a $55 winner on Thursday for his second win of the meet from ten mounts.  This just looked ideal.  AND it was the guy on the radio's pick.  You have to watch the video replay in the highlights below because I cannot describe just how, HOW FAR back she was as they turned for home.  I mean she doesn't even appear on the screen in the back, still on the turn when the field has straightened for home.  But she was absolutely FLYING from the back and at the furlong pole it was just a matter of if she'd get there in time because they had gone way too fast early.  At the sixteenth pole I still had my doubts but, well watch the video, she found a whole other gear and accelerated to the wire.

It wasn't 8/1 but it paid $13.40 and I had doubled the bet to cash for nearly $70.  WHAT a day.  And we haven't even got to the BEST of the Day yet.  Originally multiple graded stakes winner Tom's d'Etat was scheduled to run on April 11th at Keeneland in the Grade 3 Ben Ali going a mile and a sixteenth.  But with Keeneland closed for the virus he was re-routed here to contest the Oaklawn Mile, on the same target date.  He was the class of the field and had been targeting a return on this date.  In the program there were 162 running lines with eleven triple digit figures.  SEVEN of the eleven belonged to him and he'd run 100 or better in his last six starts.  True, off the shelf today, but his pp's showed him winning off the shelf before.  As the field approached the far turn announcer Vic Stauffer called out he was mid-pack and "needs to start running right now."  It was like he heard him because immediately he began picking off runners.  Swung six wide into the lane with all the momentum and blew by the Bob Baffert newly turned 4yo Improbable to win going away.

The "prime time" play got me close to $40 as I closed out the winning for the day.  Ran second in the Oaklawn Stakes at 5/1 - a 9f test for three-year-olds - and I think I would have won as I was flying from the back, but at the furlong pole my colt made a sharp left hand turn and shifted about four paths inward instead of running straight.  Oh well, who can argue about an 8-for-19 day?  Better than 40% and a HUGE profit on the afternoon.

Sunday April 12
I was excited for today, not because of the big Saturday (if anything I was wary that perhaps the numbers would even out today), but because my BET of the Day was an 8/1 longshot and I really thought I was going to make some money today, even if I only had one other winner.  Well that's the way it played out as I had one win through the first four bets.  That came in the fifth, a claiming turf sprint with Blue Magic.  Of the combined 121 figures on the page only two would be competitive with her last three numbers and she was a multiple winner at the distance.  She sat mid-pack behind the speed then shifted out into the clear and made her run to nail the favorite late.  What surprised me is that the favorite was my second choice, but I never would have bet him and he got pounded at the windows enabling Blue Magic to float up to $6.60 for the payoff - I cashed for over $30.

Missed on the next then a pass race.  Now it was time for the BIG BET.  Here's my analysis.....

As soon as the betting opened I was disappointed.  He was the 2/1 favorite on the first flash.  Really?  Well maybe, I thought, that's just a big bet with the pools being small.  So I checked the Will Pays for all the multi-race bets.  Nope, he's the clear favorite in every pool.  So my "good thing" wasn't such a secret.  And while I can't say with ANY degree of certainty I WILL say that shortly after the race I saw I had a new follower on Twitter where I post the links to my picks.....

MAYBE, they pounded him down?  Regardless, he ran exactly as I anticipated.  Was away sharply, opened up and was in hand to the top of the stretch when Tyler G asked for run and he was a decisive winner.  The 8/5 final odds and $5.20 payoff was nice as I cashed for over $50 but considering I was thinking we might get 6/1 or better and I'd be collecting for $150 or more, it was a let down. 

Missed on the last three to close out the day.  But for the week....

It was an excellent week, and now I have had TWO excellent weeks to start off the spring/summer meet.

Social Distancing
On a side-note, despite the current global pandemic which envelops the entire planet keeping everyone inside I was able to have quite a "social butterfly" week, virtually.  It began on Tuesday when I awoke to a Facebook message on my phone.  I've been a big fan and follower of CBS4 morning anchor Lauren Pastrana for several years.  She began as a beat reporter and has worked her way up the ladder to the point that she is the lead anchor in the morning.  One thing I've always liked about her is that she puts herself out there on social media and often asks questions or encourages interaction.  If you follow my journals you know I've highlighted several exchanges we've had.  But this one was different.  There was a feature article online about her returning to work from maternity leave during the current crisis.  I messaged her on FB and she responded to me shortly before they went on the air at 4:30 am:

I was touched and impressed that she personalized the message by using my first name rather just a general thanks for the comment.  She's a great gal and I trust what ever she says, and enjoy watching her every morning.  Later that day I heard back via text message from one of my most favorite students of all time, Kimmy Westmoreland whom I had met for dinner on my last visit to Gulfstream back in early March.  I'd texted to see how she was doing and when she got back to me I was excited that she wanted to have a "virtual get together."  Will look forward to that experience and see what's up with her and her job at Royal Caribbean.

On Thursday I was watching the races and a video came on of Gulfstream analysis Acacia Courtney (who also was Miss Connecticut a year ago) and with the "Stay At Home" orders, she was providing her commentary and analysis from home.  I noticed on her sofa that her throw pillows were made from saddle cloths of race horses.  I googled them but couldn't find anything.  So I thought, "Hey, I'll just ask Acacia!"  So I sent her a twitter message and withing two minutes she answered me back.  I just think that is so cool that it's possible to interact with people via social media like that.

Later that day I "chatted" with another of my favorite former students, Jennifer Schneider who I most remember her for when she graduated from HS she left home and enrolled at the University of Colorado without knowing anyone there.  She was homesick her first semester so on the way out to visit my oldest son Jeff and his family that fall I had a layover in Denver and drove to have lunch with her.  Her parents were very grateful and Jen not only stayed and graduated but lives out there.  She returns to So Fla each year and we always hook up, as we did about two months ago.  Good to "see" her as well online.

No one cuter than my own wife Kimberly who I enjoyed a "dinner out" and a wine weekend this weekend, but it's also a bit of an ego boost to know I have several attractive friends in the social media world :)

Spring 2020: Week 1

April 2 - 5

The Spring/Summer Meet Begins

Welcome to the 2020 version of spring thoroughbred racing in a world of very strange times indeed.  I hope at some point when you - or I - read this in the future we'll be able to say, "Yeah, that was really something but we all came out of it ok."  This would, under normal circumstances been Opening Week of the Spring Keeneland Meet and Saturday would have been a HUGE day on the trail to the Kentucky Derby with major preps - and undercard stakes - at Santa Anita (the Santa Anita Derby and Oaks), at Aqueduct (the Wood Memorial and Gazelle Stakes), and at Keeneland (the Bluegrass and Ashland Stakes).  But instead there are only a handful of tracks running, none of those mentioned above included in them.  And at this point on the racing calendar nearly all the "big name" trainers, jockeys, and horses would have left So Florida.  But as we're one of the few venues still conducting live racing, the spring season has become a hybrid of Gulfstream Spring & Keeneland Spring.  As a racing fan in So Fla, that's a good thing for me.  Finally, normally during this point in the racing season, after having been a daily handicapper since the beginning of December I would play sporadically during the week and focus most of my attention on weekend racing until we got to the first weekend in May when Monmouth opens and I handicap their daily cards - but that's only a three or four day racing week at most.  But, with the covid-19 pandemic keeping us at home and knocking out all our travel plans and planning I decided I'd begin by handicapping daily at Gulfstream during their Thur - to - Sunday season.  And so here's how the first week played out.

Pre-Racing Days
As the Gulfstream Winter/Championship Meet ended Kim and I headed to Orlando to help watch our grandson Oliver for a few days.  One of the highlights was he wanted to watch the races with me and some of my videos.  He's just so adorable and the best part was during the live race we watched he leaned in and said, "Is that you Grandpa?"  Yes.  "Go Grandpa, go faster!" he cheered :)  While we were there and then on the Wednesday when we returned I went through all the various categories of my handicapping to try and see if my results revealed anything meaningful and/or useful for future handicapping....

The first thing I'll point out are the highlighted big figures.  Prior to compiling these statistics if you'd ask me for some general thoughts on what I do well and what is challenging for me with handicapping I would have offered these thoughts...... (1) Turf sprints are THE most difficult kind of race for me; (2) the most difficult class of racing to decipher is an entry level allowance.  (3) I probably do best with the better races - i.e. stakes & upper level allowance - and worse with maiden events, especially maiden claiming events.  And finally, I think I do much better with turf racing than with dirt.  Well, toss all those assumptions!  Although I will make these remarks about the numbers that "disprove" my theories.  The dirt vs. turf, can't explain that.  Will be anxious to run more numbers.  For turf sprints.  I would say that probably since I believe those are more difficult I bet them only when I have a CLEAR advantage in my mind.  Maiden claiming events, I would imagine if you went through and looked at an analysis of the winning maiden claiming picks, the vast majority of them were class dropping and probably a lot of those were MSW to MC for the first time.  And finally, as for the high rate of success with the entry level allowance, I'd say that much like the turf sprints I am especially wary of those so I bet only when I have a strong advantage.  Regardless of the reasons it was an interesting exercise :)  On to racing for the first week.....

Thursday April 2
Well, the spring could not have started off any better.  In the opener I again went to the "the rule in handicapping is there are NO rules" theory when supporting sixth time maiden Living Vicariously.  My reasoning was that only three of his starts had been on the turf, and you could toss the one in MSW company.  He'd twice run for this same $50K tag and he'd been a stalking third two back, then set a blistering pace of :21 flat and :43.4 before being run down by the 8/5 favorite AND holding on for second.  With the "Minister of Speed," Emisael Jaramillo in the irons and an inside draw I thought he'd be LONG gone on the front end.  Right to the front and though the fractions may seem very similar (:21.3 and :44..0) the difference in lengths was enormous - three lengths slower in the opening quarter and a full length slower at the half mile mark.  So it was no surprise he was the winner, to me at least.  What was a surprise was that he paid a big $7.60 and that basically paid for the fact that I didn't cash any more tickets in the other four races.

Friday April 3 - THE DAY of the Pick 3
I can't honestly remember when I've had as big of a day, certainly not in the last year or so.  As I said to Kim at the end of the racing day (and several times there after!), one of the many great things about this game is that you never know.  As I said in an example, when you go to Walt Disney World and get on the Haunted Mansion attraction you "know" you are going to have a good time and have a good idea of what is about to happen.  You begin a day at the races and you just don't know what stories are about to unfold.  When I handicapped the card on Thursday morning, as I went through the card I had the feeling that this was a very strong card, very "Keeneland like," and I felt pretty confident about my picks as I made them.  So much so that I decided to play some multi-race wagers, which is something I next to never do.  I passed the opener and then ran seventh at 5/1 in the second.  In the third race I liked Not Now Rand.  His two back race at six furlongs saw him set the pace and was in front after 5 1/2 furlongs - today's distance - only to be caught late and finish a best-of-the-rest second.  AND that was against $25K rivals.  Today he was in for half that price.  Toss the last when bobbled at the start.  The only reservation I had was that today was his eighth career start.  Still, to me he looked to have a real pace advantage and on the class drop, so I doubled the bet.  And after I'd looked at the next two races I thought he was a worthy single for a small Pick-3 bet.  Up until about three minutes to post time Not Now Rand was the short-priced favorite but the closer they got to going in the gate, the more the betting evened out and he left as a tepid 2/1 favorite.  Surprisingly to me jockey Luis Saez had him a stalking position in fourth and then made his move into the clear as they turned for home.  Opened up as much, MUCH the best.

Cashed for $30 on my first winner of the day and had the first leg of the P-3 in the bank.  In the fourth, I used a combination of a tried and true handicapping angle to pick the winner and a negative angle to go against the most likely win candidate.  Two runners were taking BIG drops in class and you had to decide if the barns were wanting to get rid of them or were finding the right level for them.  In my mind Threshold was the latter for Mark Casse.  A long time ago I'd read a paperback handicapping book about betting speed.  And among the many angles it provided insight into was the "Early Speed, Class Drop" angle.  And they said, the further the runner got beat the better because the key was the speed through the pace call at a higher class level was often a sign of an impending big effort.  Such was the case with Threshold.  He'd been close to the pace through six furlongs - the pace call in a two-turn turf event like this - for a $50K tag and then faded.  Today he was in for half that price.  And the negative angle was in regards to Starship Bubba.  That one was first off the claim for Mike Maker and "everyone" just seems to think those are automatic winners.  But for several months now the numbers show it's a 15% win angle.  As they turned for home 'Bubba was the slight favorite and took the lead on the rail; Threshold tracked the leaders to the top of the lane, switched out about three wide, got his feet under him and hit another gear to catch the leader in the final 200 yards and then edge clear.  The best news, (a) I'd also singled him in the P3 and (b) he left the gate at 5/1.

"Only" cashed for $25 but was alive with two options in the final leg of my bet, the fifth race which was also on the turf.  I noted in my analysis that it's not uncommon for my top three picks to match those of the public handicappers but it is somewhat unusual that when I write up my analysis it's very nearly the same as one of them, in this case Mike Welsch of the DRF.  My top choice was High Noon Rider who was a generous 6/1 in the program.  He'd lost twice in a row to the red-hot Dalarna, who I'd had last time out, but I thought there were real reasons to think that today he'd turn the tables.  Backing up in time, 'Rider had come off a try in a Gr 3 on the synthetic at Woodbine to run in a starter allowance like this and closed down the race from off the pace in spite of the pace being moderate at good odds of 3/1.  Then two back, facing Dalarna in the Little Magician Stakes High Noon Rider had clipped heels on the back stretch and lost all chance.  Then last time out he'd closed belatedly into a very slow pace for third.  Today there looked to be much more speed and while Dalarna looked to be in the garden spot tracking them, he'd have to run much faster early and just might be vulnerable to the late kick of 'Rider.  I also thought that the fact that the likely favorite was coming back on short rest, twenty days, AND had declining Beyers made him vulnerable.  But just to be sure I played him along with my top choice in the Pick-3.  Could not have played out more like I'd forseen it!  As they spun out of the turn Dalarna made his move on the leaders who'd gone too fast to win and he took over.  Meanwhile hot-riding Tyler Gaffalione had used a rail skimming ride to rally High Noon Rider into striking position and he swung into the clear with a full head of momentum.  Even track announcer Pete Aiello was caught off guard as he called, "...High Noon Rider rallies to try and get into second, and oh, he's got his eye on getting the win!...."  He blew right on by to score.  I'd doubled the bet and his payoff of $11.20 triggered a $56 payoff on the straight win ticket and with a $1 Pick 3 I cashed for over $140.  Oh I'm having a GREAT DAY!

But I wasn't done!  Cleverly I'd not only hooked High Noon Rider (and Dalarna) into a Pick 3 as the anchor leg, but I also used them as a lead-in to the next Pick-3 sequence.  And I used them as the first half of a Daily Double with Candy Machine in the sixth race, a Maiden Special going a mile and a sixteenth using the first finish line.  There were two Todd Pletcher runners in here, and I'd had them both in their debut when they failed to score.  But my pick was Chad Brown's Candy Machine.  His debut had been a good effort against Pletcher's highly talented I'll Fight Dempsey.  And he'd earned a Beyer of 78 for his third place finish, which equaled the par for this class level.  None of the others had run that fast.  Brown is an excellent 35% with second time starters AND an even better 37% with stretch out runners like this.  AND he was the DRF Best Bet.  The others would have to not only handle the two turns BUT also improve by double digit lengths to beat the likely favorite.  Gaffalione was on board again and he was in command of the race through the turn when the third choice tried to race up inside him along the rail.  Watching it live Announcer Pete called, "...Joe Bravo tried to thread the needle but Tyler just said NOPE...." but Bravo looked like he checked and steadied the horse.  After Candy Machine crossed the wire there was an objection and INQUIRY.  First, the camera angle could not capture an exact head-on view - front or back - at the exact moment of the "incident" but in watching it over and over it seemed clear to me that Gaffalione was about three off the rail before and after the incident and that the other horse seemed to want to get out as they came out of the turn and that was where the contact occurred.  The stewards ruled no change to the order and I was through on the second leg of my second Pick 3 but more importantly had the double with the nice-priced High Noon Rider on top!

AND I had the triple investment win ticket on Candy Machine for nearly $30.  What a day.  But again, I was not done.  I also liked Interest in the next race and the following race was my personal BEST of the Day so I had linked Candy Machine into a Daily Double with the next and played another Pick 3.  I thought I had an excellent chance to win both races and cash both multi-race tickets.  But I did think, what are the chances I can cash ALL these tickets today?  This was a claiming event for sophomore fillies going a mile on the turf.  Claiming events for 3yo at this time of the year are tricky I think but in here you could make a real case for Saffie Joseph's filly Interest.  She'd won with a nice figure three back for $25K.  Today she was in a $12.5K claimer - which I've found is about right when a runner wins a maiden claiming event, their next win is for about half that price against winners.  In her first start for Joseph it got rained off and she was wide.  Then last time out she stumbled badly at the start and lost all chance.  Interest stalked the leaders, moved into the clear in the lane and was inching clear when a closer came with a rush.....PHOTO FINISH.  As I watched the replay it's always difficult from the camera angle at Gulfstream and the fact that the finish line pole for the main track is situated at nearly the exact point where you would see who had their nose first on the wire on the turf.  But from the pan angle that the race had been broadcast live I really thought I'd finished first.....and so it came up as Interest the winner.  Not only did I cash the triple investment win bet, but I also had the Pick 3 AND the Daily Double....again!

WOW - and with the BEST BET coming up I felt pretty good I'd cash all of my tickets.  My only concern was that already this week two Todd Pletcher runners who looked SO much better than their rivals had failed to score.  And so it was with Off Topic in the eighth race, finishing an off-the-board fourth at 4/5.  But what a day....hit nine of twelve bets including not one but two Daily Doubles and two Pick 3 plays.  Kim fixed me a frozen mud slide to celebrate the day.  Check out the video recap of this big day......

Friday April 3:  Pick 3 Day Recap

Saturday April 4
Well, hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney said it best in a tweet late Saturday afternoon....

I played both Gulfstream and Oaklawn today and while I knew I couldn't possibly replicate the amazing results of Friday I was surprised that I was shut out at Gulfstream and the only win I had at Oaklawn was when my pick scratched leaving me with the odds-on favorite who won for fun.  I will say that I ran second and if half of those had won I'd have had an OK day.  But so it goes.

Sunday April 5
I decided I'd had enough success with the multi-race wagers on Friday to risk a few more.  I had more originally listed to play but decided I was stretching it.  Paid for that when I would have had one late P3 but decided to save a couple dollars and narrowed my two-horse play in the third leg to just one, and of course the other won.  But still, it was an excellent day of handicapping as I had FIVE winners on the day.  After missing in the opener with a Saffie Joseph runner that looked CLEARLY best, ran seventh at even money, I had the winner in the second.  Swirling Candy was facing nw2L turf sprinters after wiring a $25K maiden field two back and then dueling on the lead against winners last time out before dead-heating for third.  With the outside draw I thought the hot-riding Tyler Gaffalione might stalk the pace to win here, but she broke sharply and went right to the front and scored wire-to-wire.

In the third, an open claiming sprint going 6 1/2 furlongs I thought we'd know before the opening quarter mile was over if Kiffle would be winning or not because she'd won four times in wire-to-wire fashion in sprints.  Then coming off a November to late February break she was sent out in a two-turn mile turf event.  Showed speed into the lane then weakened to fifth, but only beaten two lengths.  It just seemed to me that this was the perfect foundation to take this group, on the big drop down to $10K, wire to wire if no one else showed speed.  She did get pressure in the opening quarter mile but as they approached the far turn Tyler G hadn't moved a muscle and the others close to the front were vigorously asking their horses for run.  Shook the reins turning for home and kissed the field a pleasant good bye by a widening seven plus lengths.

I was alive with a Pick 3 and a Daily Double heading into the 4th, an entry level allowance going five furlongs on the turf and Cryogenics looked formidable.  Of the 139 combined speed figures of the rivals facing him only three would be competitive with his "paired" last two figures.  One had been earned by a horse that was 0-for-16 at Gulfstream and had earned the number in 2017, and the other was earned by a horse that 1-for-17 and hadn't earned a number like that in two years.  While neither the Double or the P3 would pay alot, still I'd have them.  If only they didn't actually RUN the races I'd have had it.  Cryogenics was steadied at the start and again at the 3/8th pole and finished strongly to be third.  The winner had set the pace last time out against Cryogenics who ran by him to win by a widening two plus lengths.  In the sixth I really thought Gotta Go Moe had an excellent chance to wire this MSW turf sprint in her sixth start.  In her last three she'd draw out wide and had to battle on the lead while giving up ground.  Today she had the rail and if she ran back to her previous she'd be LONG gone under Luis Saez.  Indeed she was sharp out of the gate and was easily clear, opened up by daylight in the lane then wasn't asked for everything as she held off the field to score as the 4/5 favorite.

In the seventh it was a nw3L event going six furlongs.  Typically in a 3-lifetime event I like a runner who's never been in such a conditioned event, but there weren't any of those.  But I thought Sky Chaser looked solid in here.  She'd been in stakes company and was a best-of-the-rest 2nd for $35K 3L behind Flat Awesome Jenny who had won three in a row until she hopped at the break and lost all chance in her most recent.  Today Sky Chaser was dropping down to $20K.  She was wide all the way under one of the low-percentage riders, but as they turned for home her better ability and class carried her to the front as she ground out the win and edged clear by a little more than a length.

We were heading into one of my most confident selections and Ron Nicoletti's BEST BET of the Day in the 8th.  And I was alive in a P3 with Gotta Go Mo/Sky Chaser and in a Daily Double with the latter.  Even though it wouldn't pay much with both of those horses going off at even money, it was two winning tickets I thought I "had."  Voodoo Zip was the only one in the field who'd run better than the par figure for the race, ever, and she'd done it in her last.  Trainer Danny Gargan won at a big 39% clip at the tough Championship Meet, and he had hot-riding Tyler Gaffalione in the irons - he'd won TEN races through the first three days of the spring and had two already today.  Gaffalione had her sitting in third behind the front runner who while pressured somewhat was going easily up front.  It's always easy to second guess but I thought he moved too late on Voodoo and she fell a neck shy of getting me the win, double, and P3 ticket.  Sigh.....  In the ninth I liked Proven Strategies from the Chad Brown barn but decided in her first try against winners I'd watch.  Wire to wire at even money.  Wow.  The next race wasn't the "bet of the day" but in my mind was the "race of the day."  On March fifth Up In Smoke was exiting a very impressive win in state-bred maiden special company to try state-bred entry level allowance foes with John Velazquez in the saddle.  She pressed the pace through the opening quarter but didn't seem comfortable with the kick back of dirt and gradually began dropping back until she disappeared off the screen prompting Announcer Pete to say, "....the favorite is literally up in smoke...."  But as the field swung into the lane there was a blur of a horse from the back who was swinging wide.  Then at the 1/8th pole she was fifth and on the move.  What the????  Blew by to win emphatically.  The most unusual and impressive race I've seen in a long time.  So how would she run today.  Adding to the intrigue she was moving from state-bred to OPEN allowance foes here.  She broke cleanly but dropped back quickly to trail almost ten off the leaders.  But Luis Saez got her moving on the turn and was within a couple lengths and flying as they came into the stretch.  Blew by just like last time and I had my fifth winner on the day.

One word about the investments for the week.  Held my winning percentage that I'm usually at, but because of the multi-race wagers I turned what would have been a pretty good loss for the week into a nearly $100 profit for the first week of the meet.  If I can win at my usual pace and payoffs I'll recoup a lot of the money I lost from that big Friday and that should carry me through several weeks.  We'll be back at it on Thursday!