Opening Weekend At Churchill Downs

May 14 - 17

I have to admit that it wasn't until the Tuesday following the extended weekend of racing that I realized I'd had an awfully good week of handicapping.  I just had the sense, after winning just three races total over the first two days, that it was an "ok" week of handicapping results.  But I was glad that on Saturday I had the option of playing more than just Gulfstream.  Churchill Downs opened on Saturday and Santa Anita opened on Friday.  And next weekend there will be multiple stakes races at both of those venues, so it will be a more "normal" weekend of selections.  Let's see how this week played out.

Thursday May 14

The week kicked off with a sunny day and I was most happy that my sister Laurie and niece Khloe opted to fly down for two weeks.  We certainly can use some "outside human contact."  I felt badly for them however because the weather forecasts called for a lot, A LOT of rain beginning tomorrow.  But for today we enjoyed the great weather and the fast & firm courses at Gulfstream.  I passed the opener and then, against my better judgement - again - I played a 2yo race only to see my pick run second at 3/1 odds.  In the third it was a turf sprint with a claiming tag for straight three-year-olds.  The race looked to come down to either Sea Lover or Bahamian Prince.  Sea Lover came from the Timothy Hamm barn who has wintered at Tampa but appears to be shifting to the east coast.  And Sea Lover was unbeaten in two starts.  After going wire to wire on the dirt to break his maiden he moved into an allowance turf sprint.  He set torrid fractions and then held on for his second win.  On either surface today he was the pick.  A nearly identical race to his first two resulted.....right to the front at 9/5 odds, on the turn the 7/5 Bahamian Price came to him and they dueled to the 16th pole before he edged clear.  

My selections in the next two races scratched out.  In the 6th I knew I was "hoping" that Todd Pletcher's debut runner would run well because he was debuting in a big field on the grass, but it was a worthy gamble to make some money.  Too far back, 7th at 9/2.  Rand second at a big 7/1 in the seventh race.  I was surprised in the 9th and featured that Bronx Beauty was a non-threatening fourth.  But to be fair he was checked on the backstretch.  In the finale it was another turf event and it looked to be all Cookie Cove.  As I noted in my analysis, it's either Cookie Cove or a "go figure" result.  Had to be concerned with the 0-for-8 resume, but I thought you could reasonably toss five of those.  His best efforts came when on or pressing the lead and with the rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz I thought he'd get that.  Right to the front and never looked back as the easiest of winners.

Friday May 15

Just as hottie weather girl Erika Delgado predicted, the rains came today.  Well, actually they started overnight and continued through most of the day today.  It was sloppy going so all the races came off the inner course but I still liked Gran Old Par who's made his career debut in an off-the-turf sprint at Tampa.  Looked to be the clear speed of the race....on the drop and with the "Minister of Speed," Emisael Jaramillo up.  Sure enough - he was the speed of the speed, but had to duel through the turn through wicked fractions before getting clear.  But that cost him late as he was run down to be fourth as the 1-2 favorite.  In the third we were going two turns, a mile and a sixteenth, on the main track.  With the short tun to the first turn, the inside draw for likely favorite Gauzy would mean, I thought a ground saving trip.  Liked that he'd never been on the grass, so the move to the main track made him even more attractive.  Add in Irad Ortiz and it's a "duh" selection.  Ortiz demonstrated again why he's the top rider in the country as he saved ground to the far turn, got his horse into the clear and let him run free to the wire as easily best.  I'd tripled the bet to make him the "best" of the day.  Unfortunately it was the lone win of the day.  Top pick scratched out of the fourth and passed the fifth.  In the sixth it was a one-turn mile maiden claimer.  I liked Speedy Hans at a fair price.  All but one of his races were sprints, and he showed a patient tracking trip when going two turns at Churchill Downs.  With Ortiz up I thought he'd get a good ride and have a big chance.  Left the gate at a strong 5/1 and pressed the pace in an ideal spot, though a bit wide.  But when asked to kick on to the wire he had nothing left and faded to seventh.  In the seventh "Main Track Only" Paola's Team looked like a standout and everyone agreed as she was the heavy favorite until late in the betting.  In the last three minutes or so the betting money came pouring in on the "other" top choice and those two went at it on the turn, but she was no match and was a well beaten second under the wire.  Passed the next two and then we got a rare stakes event, The Hollywood Wildcat going a mile and a sixteenth.  Obviously the most talented and accomplished 3yo filly in here was Tonalist Shape, but her one bad effort came at this two turn trip.  Granted the field was a lot less today, but I was willing to take a shot on a filly who'd been visually impressive in three straight outings, Up In Smoke.  Left the gate at 5/2 but was never really in it as the favorite, Tonalist Shape dominated.  And the day ended when my pick scratched out of the finale.  We topped off the day by ordering Chinese take-out and posed for a photo op on the pool deck.

Saturday May 16:  Opening Day At Churchill Downs
I was surprised that Gulfstream had THREE stakes today and I had multiple picks, so I was content playing just GP and Churchill.  But was very disappointed when the live stream came up from Louisville that it was raining and we were off the turf.  But today was an "interesting" day at the races, but one that provided some real highlights.  In the Gulfstream opener, taken off the turf going a mile and a sixteenth there were two runners that appeared the most likely winners.  I had a minimum play on the 5/1 third choice who was a non-threatening eighth, but I was alive in the Early Pick 3 with the other who wired the field at 2/1 odds. Descente.  In the third race, a starter allowance going a demanding seven furlongs I thought Saffie Joseph's Moonstone was the "right one."  She'd dueled into the turn, got clear and then was run down by the white-hot Flat Awesome Jenny.  Today I thought she'd be long gone.  My only concern is if there was a speed duel, so on the Pick-3 ticket I played her with the logical closer, Solitary Gem.  Sure enough, cooked on the front end, but the closer - who went off favored - blew by to win for fun.

So heading into the fourth today I was already 0-for-3 (having lost the first bet at Churchill) on straight win bets.  So the P3 came down to my single here, a maiden claiming event going six furlongs.  Panarea I thought was a stand out based on her first career start when third to Tonalist's Shape - who'd now won six of seven including a pair of graded stakes at the Championship Meet and yesterday's Hollywood Wildcat Stakes.  She was down in class today to a level where she was a just-miss second while five clear of the show.  She was third off the shelf with the best figures in the field.  Sent off as the prohibitive 3/5 favorite she pressed the leader to the turn, dueled into the lane and took over.  Challenged, she got about half a length in front when the 7/1 stalker would not take NO for an answer and they hit the wire nearly  simultaneously.  At first glance I thought I'd won, but watching the slow-motion replays it was really too hard to tell.  The photo examination took the longest time, and I was ready to be "ok" with a Dead Heat so I'd at least not lose, then the official announcement, it WAS Panarea by the narrowest of margins....

Suddenly I've had the winner in three of four races, cashed a Pick 3 and a triple investment WIN bet and I'm ahead for the day.  Gotta love racing.  Next up was the fourth at Churchill, a one-turn mile under allowance conditions.  Normally, just another race, but no....this marked the return to the track of champion 2018 three-year-old Monomoy Girl.  She'd not been seen since winning the 2018 Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Distaff as my prime time play in early November, here at Churchill Downs when Kim and I had been joined by Keith, Sue & Dan for the weekend.  She boasted a record of ten wins from twelve starts and one of those losses had come via DQ in the Grade 1 Cotillion in one of the most egregious disqualifications in the history of the sport.  Today you wouldn't fault her for not being primed for a big shot because you KNOW she's got bigger targets down the road, but I've also found with such superstars boasting such records the connections are not going to readily accept a blemish just to "get one under her belt," so I anticipated a big effort.  She was between horses and had no where to run heading into the turn.  But then a seam opened for jockey Florent Geroux to get her to the outside and make "the move."  She accelerated with ease to the front.  For the briefest of moments I wondered if she would accelerate away as she didn't immediately open up.  But then she switched leads and ran away as easily, EASILY the best.  Watch the highlight video at the bottom of the page - it was cool that someone filmed the stretch run live - with the massive grandstand completely empty - and you get the feeling that I was actually there to watch the race.  Monomoy Girl was the BET of the Weekend and lived up to the billing.

I thought that the 1-2 odds were very generous as I cashed out for $45.  Right back in the fifth at Gulfstream where the race was a 7f entry level allowance - originally scheduled to go 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf around two turns, this now played into the hands of Glass Ceiling, a "Main Track Only" runner.  Off since January and stepping up a notch in class I thought she was clearly the one to beat.  Right to the front and handled very confidently throughout as she breezed home much the best at even money odds.

Unfortunately that did it for the day at Gulfstream in terms of straight up WIN bets.  In the 6th, the Roar Stakes for sophomores going 6 1/2 furlongs Green Light Go was the 3/5 choice and he was making what looked to be a winning move between horses when the unofficial winner veered into his path and he had to check.  No INQUIRY sign so the rider objected and they looked at it....seen worse and less go both ways.  No change.  Sigh.  Scratched out in the seventh.  Then in the eighth I ran 3rd at 7/2 but in the Pick-3 I didn't have the 5/1 winner.  But in the next two legs I correctly selected the 11/1 upset winner of the off-the-turf Powder Break Stakes in Jakarta and the wire-to-wire 3/1 winner of the Musical Romance in Lady's Island.  Chalk up two more "wins" on the stat sheet, but I didn't cash the Pick-3.  The payout for the $0.50 investment I'd made was over $225, and you have to figure it would have been a touch less since my pick in the first leg was 7/2 and the winner was 5/1.  But it would have been a nice one.  Sigh.....

In the midst of that sequence the seventh at Churchill Downs was a Maiden Special going six furlongs.  Bill Mott is long known for NOT having his horses ready at first asking, so when they run big, you pay attention next time out.  Say Moi had run a big second to Chad Brown's ultra impressive winner at Gulfstream, earning an 80 Beyer.  Figured tough in here.  Pressed to the top of the lane and took over like she'd run away.  Opened up by four lengths but started to get tired in the final 16th.  Too late for anyone to catch her and I cashed for more than $25 on my last winner of the day.

Thought I had one more when John Velazquez took another Mott runner, Miss T Too right to the front and was clear at 5/1, only to be caught in the final fifty yards.  Closed out the day at Gulfstream when the favorite looked to be either the winner, or a "go figure."  Right to the front at even money, long gone, until not when caught in the final fifty yards as well.  Sigh.....

Sunday May 18
Today saw me ring up the winners, and I don't know how you'd have "fixed" the problem that arose that cost me some winnings, but at least I cashed.  The stories from today......I was a smart fellow when I passed the opener, a 5f turf sprint taken off as was the fourth today which was scheduled at a mile on the grass.  The later races, with the sunny early afternoon weather were on the green.  In the second I had the 6/5 favorite who took the lead into the lane but was caught late by a 24/1 upsetter.  Again, smart to NOT play the early double or use this race in a Pick 3.  I did play a P3 for races 3-thru-5 however.  In the third it was a $35K claiming sprint for sophomores and you could make a case for all of them on their "A" game.  So could you make a strong enough case that one of them was more likely to run that race than the others?  I thought so with R U Lucky who had won two back against stronger $50K claimers for trainer Saffie Joseph.  The problem with him was what to make of his last race when very dull?  Well, take your pick...the move to allowance company, the four wide trip, or the big effort in the previous race - or all three.  Off the shelf today with hot-riding Irad Ortiz AND a bullet work.  Pressed the pace to the top of the lane and edged clear for the win.  I'd singled him in the Pick 3 - I'm ALIVE!

The fourth was now off-the-turf, a maiden special going a mile and a sixteenth and my second choice on the turf had been Todd Pletcher's Unrighteous who had big numbers but had not ever been on the grass.  With the move to the main track he was a standout to me.  The only "problem" was he was drawn wide with the run to the first turn but I figured he'd get over relatively soon.  Nope.  Was four or five wide through the first turn and all the way down the backstretch until Ortiz made his move.  Closed in on the leaders entering the far turn and was "only" three wide.  Got to the front turning for home and for a couple of strides you wondered if the trip had taken it's toll but then he let it out a notch and ran away as easily best....and I was alive into the final leg of the Pick 3.

Back to a regularly scheduled main track event, a non-winners of two lifetime on the main going a one-turn mile.  I thought this race was very much like the previous - it was either going to be one of the top two favorites, Geonosis and Red Flag, or it was a "go figure" kind of race.  The problem was, both had "issues" to go with their positive angles.  Geonosis had the rail, looked fast and forwardly placed, and had the best figures.  BUT, all the best figures came in one-turn sprints and his lone try at this one-turn mile was a disaster.  Red Flag on the other hand had more turf races than dirt, but his last two numbers at this one-turn mile had earned figures within a couple lengths of the top one.  I played a small win bet on Geonosis and used both with the two singles in the Pick 3.  Right to the front with Geonosis and midway on the turn when Announcer Pete called, "and now the distance question will have to be answered," he ran away easily to win.  Cashed my third consecutive WIN ticket AND the Pick 3 ticket.

Next up was an entry level turf event that just had too many questions.  I had put on my analysis sheet that I'd play a Pick 3 but decided there were just too many variables and passed the race.  Good thing because the winner was an 11-1 upset.  In the seventh Todd Pletcher was sending out what looked like a prohibitive favorite in Sniper Shot.  After a debut win with a low figure he'd earn a big number for a second place try at Keeneland.  Off the shelf he was slated to face ultra-talented Hidden Scroll this winter but that one scratched at the gate and he ran big again.  Last time out he was a best of the rest second with a good number.  Today he was stretching from 7f to a mile and he just looked like CLEARLY the best runner.  He was the WIN play, and a triple investment.  For purposes of the Pick 3 I thought his stablemate, Legit was a fair gamble and another price play was tossed on a couple tickets, just in case.  He tracked a fast pace to the turn took over and opened up with a "YOWZA" kind of effort.  Ultra-impressive.

Cashed for $30 and he was on all five of my P3 tickets.  The 8th on the turf was a difficult race to decipher so I had five runners on my ticket.  Of them I liked two more than the others and had them on all five tickets, then had the others on two tickets in various combinations.  But right after the running of the Sniper Shot race it was announced that the race was coming off the turf.  With one race in the books there was no altering the ticket now.  And then the scratches started to mount up.  I don't know how they could have handled the situation, and not being a regular P3 player I don't know how it "typically" is handled.  But by the time they went to the post it was a 10 furlong dirt race with four runners instead of a twelve furlong three-turn turf race with eight runners.  I had three of the runners on my Pick 3 ticket and would "cash" on the scratches but if I'd been able to, with only four runners and with three of my horses scratched I obviously would have played an "ALL" ticket.  I honestly was surprised that this wasn't what was "given" as a consolation.  Because even for me, on the one ticket where I only had the top two runners, it seemed grossly unfair that I was "stuck" with two "live" horses going 10f on the dirt when I'd bet them for 12f on the grass.  But, what are you going to do.  You can guess...yes, I had three of the four covered and the other one won wire to wire.

My only hope now is to get one of the three runners in the final leg home so I get to cash the "consolation" Pick 3 tickets.  Todd Pletcher was sending out Spinoff in this the Sunday Silence Stakes going nine furlongs on the main track.  The race was named after Breeders' Cup Champion Sunday Silence who won the Breeders' Cup Classic in 1989 right here at Gulfstream over champion Easy Goer in an "epic" match.  We were there for that day, the first Breeders' Cup we'd ever been to and it was really, REALLY something.

For the purposes of the Pick 3 I also thought that if Spinoff got caught up in a speed duel or went too fast early both Just Whistle and You're To Blame could run him down.  The former I had on three of the tickets.  The latter on just one ticket.  And I had the rail horse who left the gate at 5/2 and the apparent lone speed on three tickets.  Played out as I thought and turning for home Spinoff took over.  But as he turned for home he lost several lengths when floating wide into the lane.  Now maybe that was strategic knowing that Just Whistle was gearing up with a late bid, or maybe it wasn't.  But in mid-stretch he caught him.  But then Spinoff edged clear again and I thought I was home.  But in the final fifty yards Just Whistle accelerated JUST enough to outfinish him and I lost the WIN bet but won the Pick 3.

Lost money on the total play because of two of the tickets did not have scratched horses - not right - but I was thankful to cash the ticket non-the-less.  Passed the 10th when moved to the main track and the same with the finale.  But all afternoon I kept going back and forth about the featured Grade 3 Desert Stormer at Santa Anita.  I hadn't handicapped the race (or purchased the Daily Racing Form Past Performances) but I knew Bellafina SHOULD win.  She would have been an automatic bet except the few public handicappers I found picks from had mixed feelings and liked the upset candidates.  Finally right before the featured Sunday Silence I made the choice to play the race.  Bellafina had been out fourteen times with six wins and was a multiple Grade 1 winner.  BUT, she'd faltered many times as the favorite.  Three weeks ago she was a strong "play against" when running at Oaklawn in the Carousel Stakes.  Why?  Because at Santa Anita she had started six times with four wins and two seconds - and both of those seconds had come in Gr 1 events behind top horses.  ALL of her losses that were not 2nd place finishes had come out of town.  Now she was home, with a race under her belt - which, because of the pandemic suspending racing in So Cal, none of the others had.  So I made the bet.  We were playing cards when they went into the gate and I watched it live on TVG.  Stalked the pace to the turn and ran away.  Oh I'm so smart :)

Cashed for nearly $30 to close the day.  And as I started this journal entry, it wasn't until Monday that I actually went through the stats for the week.  And oh my, what a week it was:

May 14-17 Racing Highlights

Two last items.....a new "thing" on Facebook this weekend was creating your own "avatar," so of course I joined in with several of my FB pals :)

And finally, maybe just MAYBE this pandemic thing is winding down.  It was announced this week that beginning on Monday Broward County and Miami-Dade County could join the rest of the state and begin to "open up" under the guidelines given by the state of Florida.  One of those was that restaurants would open with occupancy capped at 50% and social distancing.  So we made dinner reservations for Monday evening and the four of us went to the Sawgrass Mills Mall to have dinner at the Rainforest Cafe....like REAL people :)

Spring / Summer Week 6

The Week I Hit THREE Pick-3's

Thursday May 7 - Sunday May 11

So, how you (and I) view the week largely is determined by how you view the three sequences of Pick-3 races I hit for the week.  How so, you ask?  Well for the week, it was a lean week in terms of picking winners.  On Thursday and Friday I had one win each day; on Saturday I had two outright winners.  And on Sunday I had two more.  Considering that two weeks ago I went into the weekend with eight winners already in the folder.  And last week after a slow start to the week I watched eight winners cross the line on Saturday, Arkansas Derby Day alone.  But when the last race completed this week I'd had just six winners for the four day racing week.  However, if you counted the Pick-3 wins, I had TWELVE wins on the week.  And to take it a step further,  I had another winner on Friday and two more on Saturday as part of Pick-3 sequences that where I didn't hit all three.  So at the end of the weekend I'd had fifteen races where the horse I'd picked to win crossed the finish line first.  This caused me to reevaluate how I keep my records considering that I'm playing more multi-race wagers.  So one project I'll undertake will be to look back through the spring season and add those races in and see how it changes my winning numbers.  But, here's how the week unfolded for me.

Thursday

Kim had left Wednesday morning for a Girls' Weekend in Daytona and was coupling that with an extended weekend in Orlando so I was looking at nearly a week home alone.  The weather was wonderful and as I handicapped the races this morning awaiting the start of the race day I took a photo to document how wonderful my setting is here in Sunrise.  In the opener my pick was the 3/5 favorite in a maiden claiming turf sprint.  But the trip was five wide and he was no better than third.  Passed the second which was a 2yo MSW event and in the third I liked Take Charge Again in a non-winners of two lifetime sprint.  Last time out she'd dropped in for this cheap price and restricted company but "broke awkwardly and was last of ten.  But she rallied strongly behind a runaway winner to get second.  With a clean start she looked tough to beat.  She did today, and rode the rail from her inside post position while stalking the leaders in fourth.  At the top of the lane she swung off the rail into the clear four wide and powered home as much the best.  The 8/5 price enabled me to cash a ticket worth nearly $30.  Here we go I thought.  Such was not to be the case.  In the fourth going two turns on the turf my horse was moving strongly up the backstretch along the rail when checked sharply, then clipped heals losing all momentum and chance.  In the sixth I had the 3/5 favorite and Victory Town cruised to the lead outside of the second choice who had led them into the turn.  But as heads turned for home that one would not go away and he re-rallied to finish in front of me, relegating me to second.  Had a 9/1 longshot in the 8th but was left at the gate; then when making a strong move, and I actually thought "I'm going to win in spite of the start," but was checked sharply on the turn.  Got clear and finished very strongly for third.  Oh what could have been.  In the 9th I was 5/2 and on the move with no where to run, waited for room and got out too late, third.  Finally in the tenth I was the 9/5 favorite and had every chance but was too far off the pace and ended up third.  

Friday
Today was an excellent example of how the week went.  From seven races I played, my horse won three of them.  You can't argue with that.  But only one of them was the WIN bet.  In the opener I thought it was a wide open event but it looked to me like a 12/1 longshot had every right to go wire to wire.  Left the gate at 14/1 and led into the lane....oh my, then stopped to finish ninth.  In the second, a 2yo MSW event I passed.  Also took a pass in the fourth.  The remainder of the card I had good selections I thought, and so I decided to play multiple Pick 3 tickets.  In the fifth we were sprinting five furlongs on the turf for a $16K price tag.  R Boy Bode looked to me to be the speed of the race, and with the rail draw and Emsiael Jaramillo on board he looked long gone.  I thought the only one who stood a chance to upset the favorite was parked on the outside, New York's Finest.  I thought the draw would lead him to track my selection to the lane where I spurt free.  But when the gates opened I was away slowly losing all chance.  That break handed an easy lead to New York's Finest and he cruised right to the front at 2/1 odds and never looked back.  Fortunately, I had used them both on the ticket.

The sixth was a maiden claiming sprint which I thought provided the UPSET SPECIAL opportunity of the day.  Todd Pletcher has been, to this point, "merely mortal" and several of his runners had failed to produce at short odds.  So I thought his entry in here, Bardot was vulnerable.  He'd dueled gate to deep stretch and was a best of the rest second for $25K.  Now dropped to this $16K he was a legitimate favorite.  But I liked Harmonic Thunder for Saffie Joseph who was 20/1 in the program.  The race unfolded nearly as I'd seen it.  Bardot at 3/5 near the front and took over heading for home.  And he was weakening as he approached the wire.  'Thunder stalked the pace at 12/1 and was ready to roll but when asked, just finished evenly.  Fortunately Bardot held on while my win bet dead-heated for fourth.  I had a third horse on the ticket at 7/1 but he was dead last.  I'm alive heading into the final leg and that would be my BET of the Day.

The seventh was the key to the day.  This was an $8K claiming race going a one-turn mile on the main track.  And as I commented in my analysis, unless you got a "well, that's horse racing" kind of result, this race went strictly through the favorite, Enlisting.  He'd won three of his last four, and the lone loss came when trying the turf.  Toss that and he'd won his last three dirt races.  He was also a perfect three-for-three at the one-turn mile.  Add it that today he went first off the claim for trainer Victor Barboza who wins with an astounding 56% of those and you can see why he was the BET of the Day.  He was third early in the going but cruised up on the turn, took over turning for home and won by as many as he wanted.  The prime time play netted a return of over $30 and sealed the first Pick 3 winning ticket of the week.

I also keyed him in a middle sequence and in a late sequence.  But not only did none of my win bets win those (2nd in both) but the horses I had in the multi-race sequence also failed to deliver.  I thought I had solid bets in the final two races as well and had a late Pick 3 but none of them hit.  So I ended the day with one WIN bet winner but three picks crossing the line first.  "Celebrated" with a glass of wine on the back deck and shared my "lonely view" on Facebook - got 40 hits via social media and several friends having a "virtual drink" with me :)

Saturday
With Oaklawn closing their doors last Saturday that left only Tampa and Gulfstream to carry the load for thoroughbred racing (sorry, just don't count Fonner Park in Nebraska or Will Rogers Downs in Oklahoma).  I have found Tampa racing to be less predictable, especially in the spring but with no other options I thought I'd look any way.  And surprisingly I found several horses that I thought looked legitimate.  In fact the one horse on the day that looked like THE most likely winner was running at Tampa.  But for the day in Oldsmar I only had one winner, and at 1/5 at that, to go with two seconds and two thirds.  The "sure thing".....fifth behind a 17/1 winner.  Dismal day on the west coast of Florida.  And at Gulfstream I also had just one WIN bet come home.  But as the day ended I felt much better about my handicapping because my day actually went like this:  1st - 9th, 2nd - 3rd, 3rd - 4th, 4th - 3rd, 6th - WIN, 7th - WIN, 8th - 2nd, 9th WIN, 10th - WIN, 11th - WIN.  So as you see, as the day ended I finished with five winning selections in the last six races and was 2nd in the other.  BUT....only one of those came on a straight win bet.  No explaining how my 5/2 choice in the opener.  In the second it was a 2yo race and I was irritated with myself for backing a Wesley Ward 2yo AGAIN but I was convinced when the DRF's Mike Welsch made him his BEST of the day to go in.  Third at 9/5 while the Todd Pletcher horse who got all kinds of attention won at a fair price.  Less than a quality ride on the turf in the third when taken to the back off a slow pace.  Closed seven wide with a rush, too little, too late in fourth.  Cruised up with the perfect trip in the fifth but no finish at 5/1, third.  The sixth I liked Todd Pletcher's Riggins.  He'd only been eighth in his debut, but that was in MSW company and he'd been fanned very wide turning for home.  Today he dropped in for a high $65K price tag and got Irad Ortiz.  Came charging down the lane after getting a seam at the top of the stretch and won as the best horse in the race.

Only had the minimum so the payoff of $20 was generous.  The seventh began the first of overlapping Pick 3 bets for me.  It was a turf sprint for three-year-olds and it looked to me like a speed duel would set up Compensate who was exiting a strong finishing 2nd in the Melody of Colors Stakes a month ago.  I put him on the ticket with another finisher and the two speed horses just in case one of them got loose.  Sure enough, Foolish Humor at 7/2 went to the front and the other front runner decided not to go with him.  Wired the field, holding on desperately to that other front runner - so as they deliberated the photo result I knew (a) I'd lost on my win bet but (b) I was going to be alive in the Pick 3.  The 7/2 price meant I would have a nice price if I could cash on the other two legs.  The middle leg saw me on Louie's Kingdom who was a prohibitive favorite.  He was a standout in the field and was even Caton Bradar's single in the $12 Million Rainbow Pick 6.  And he was every handicapper's top choice.  Right to the front but took some pressure from a 5/1 outsider.  Put that one away into the lane and opened up.  Only to be run down by an 11/1 outsider.  I had two alternatives as savers on the P3 but he wasn't one of them.  In retrospect how I left that guy off is a mystery.  The race was a non-winners of two lifetime and I always look for horses running in that condition for the first time.  Only two in the field were like that.  A 30/1 outsider and another that was the 9/2 fourth choice in the program.  EVERYONE overlooked that one and he's the 11/1 winner.  I'd used Louie's Kingdom and the other two as the first leg in a second sequence of Pick 3 bets so I was now dead on both tickets.  In the ninth, the Sunshine Forever Stakes - a one mile turf event - I went with a 10/1 graded stakes winner to upset the field, but also put in both Todd Pletcher horses and another of the top betting choices, as well as a 40/1 Euro invader.  When a couple of scratches were announced I really should have re-handicapped for the win bet because the pace dynamic now left Pletcher's Halladay ALL ALONE on the front end.  Sure enough, he wired the field as the 6/5 favorite.

So I had the first and third legs of the first Pick 3 and would have been alive in the second leg of the second set, but was also alive on the final and third ticket.  Race ten I didn't have a strong enough opinion on any of the runners to make a win bet because I couldn't toss out Battle of Blenheim but I also didn't think he was throw out.  Didn't help my confidence level that in the last five times I'd seen him run I'd bet him three times - lost them all - did not trust him in the others and he won.  So I didn't bet him, but DID put him in the Pick 3.  He was JUST up in time.  I was alive through the second leg.

Note that this would have made two Pick 3 winning tickets in a row had I noted the R8 winner in the nw2L that I left out.  They paid $78 and $44.  Not life-changing, but would have paid for all the bets on the day.  In race eleven I really liked Todd Pletcher's I'll Fight Dempsey.  His debut run on Fountain of Youth Day had been sensational.  He'd gone wire to wire in a dazzling performance which was validated when the runner-up, a Chad Brown horse came right back to win.  When 'Dempsey reappeared in an allowance event going 7f on the first weekend of the spring he was the hot 1/2 favorite.  Whether it was the extra furlong, the first time winners, or the sizzling fractions of :44.3 and 1:09.3 that did him in - or a combination - he faded to fourth.  BUT....at the six furlong mark he'd actually run faster, on a faster pace than his debut.  So today the return to six furlongs pointed him out.  And even more important, he was going from open company to state-bred rivals.  My only concern for the Pick 3 was that Pletcher had sent out SO many favorites that have gone down the drain.  So I looked for alternatives.  I put a Tampa invader on all four tickets; I used an impressive last out maiden winner on one ticket, and I used Tap It To Win on two tickets.  He'd won impressively in his maiden at Saratoga - that's ALWAYS a good sign.  Then he ran in two stakes events, way over his head.  Today he was coming off a layoff, but if he ran back to the Saratoga race he was every bit as talented as I'll Fight Dempsey.  The Pletcher colt was pressured from the get go but had a head in front going into the turn.  But that was it at odds of 9/5, he faded badly.  The last out maiden winner took over at 5/1 but in mid-stretch Tap It To Win came flying by to score at better than $12 and clinched the final Pick 3 ticket.

With two winning tickets I cashed out at better than $60.  So, even though I only had one win bet score, I had correctly identified the winner in five of the last six races and felt pretty good about my day.

Sunday
The weather forecast all week had been for a major storm system to move through late Saturday and produce rain nearly all day Sunday, some of it reportedly enough to produce local flooding.  But as the week came to it's conclusion the forecasts changed to very late Saturday night for the storm to hit, letting the Saturday card play out as it was set up; and then the majority of the rain was more south of Fort Lauderdale.  That meant for me, handicapping the races, big questions as to (a) what surface we'd be on and (b) who would stay in the races.  So I basically handicapped fourteen races for the ten race card.  An hour before post time when Jason Blewitt and hottie Acacia Courtney came on the air to analyze the card, we were still "Fast and Firm."  But within ten minutes of the beginning of the show they were told ALL races were now off the turf.  In the opener, originally scheduled for 8f on the turf I had thought if moved to the main track that #9 Bella Gianna could take these wire to wire.  She went off at a big 10/1 price and led to the final strides before caught by the favorite.  In the second I led to the turn and stopped at 9/5.  In the third I liked #8 Tipsy gain on the front end.  Much like the first, right to the front, all the way to a head bobbing photo.....second.

Bella Gianna (inside) CAUGHT in the opener - the lovely Acacia - Tipsy (inside) CAUGHT in the third

And so we headed into the middle part of the card.  I was 5/1 and completely out of it in the 4th.  But finally my fortune changed in the fifth.  This nw2L claiming event going a one-turn mile seemed more like a who CANNOT win that several win contenders.  And with that in mind Les Tres Jolie "stood out" to me.  The two "most likely" win candidates were a 1-for-11 runner who'd given way multiple times on the lead and a Tampa turf winner.  As the field approached the far turn - and you can't tell this in the highlight film below because I picked up the action near the top of the lane - Les Tres Jolie was STILL lagging far back.  But on the turn she began to run and she caught both my eye and that of Announcer Pete.  The top five separated turning for home like the parting of the Red Sea and she stormed through to win going away, at a big 5/1 price.  Cashed for $50 and I was very happy.

I passed the sixth, a maiden special event on the dirt.  I found it so difficult to find anyone to like that my entire analysis was two sentences...... "Not willing to go in enough to bet but 4-R U Royalty (12/1) has run figures as good as the program choices but unlike his rivals ALL of his came in OPEN MSW events.  Goes turf to dirt which is an 0-for-18 angle, ouch."  You can guess - won for fun and paid $27 - no bet.  Sigh.....  Because there's no racing on Monday I spent the morning laying out spread sheets of all the speed figures for the horses in races 7-through-10.  After missing the "obvious" 11/1 winner yesterday it occurred to me that an old process I'd used where I looked at only the numbers before handicapping might lead me to some potential price plays in Pick-3 situations.  And in this four race sequence I thought I had legitimate runners to lean on.  If the 7th came off the turf it seemed very obvious that the one to beat would be #10 Trev.  He'd won four straight in three of those his Beyer figures would win by a pole.  But if he ran that "other" race he could prove vulnerable.  But using the "A-B-C" method of ranking the runners he was clearly an "A" ticket.  Three other runners were worthy of minor chances, so I laid out six tickets.  Trev was on all six, so if he won I'd have the shorter priced Pick 3 ticket six times.  The others I used on two tickets each.  Trev dueled to the top of the lane and then pulled away to win by daylight.  But the best part was he left the gate somehow at a very inflated 2/1 price AND paid more than $6 so my triple investment netted nearly $50.

I'm a flat-bet winner for the day on win bets now regardless of what happens in the final three races.  But more importantly I'm alive in the Pick 3 on ALL six tickets.  In race 8, if you tossed the last race for Yodel E.A. Who when stumbling at the gate, and his "awkward start" four back, then four of his six races earned Beyers that would win handily.  And he was Ron Nicoletti's BEST Bet.  I thought he was a "good bet," but noted he was 0-for-2 at the distance and his three wins had come vs. lesser.  So I didn't want to make him a "lone ranger" on any tickets.  I thought his main competition would come from #6 Fortune Cookie and #7 Champagneonme.  The former was one of those that if you gave him excuses recently he had plenty of back races that would win here AND today he picked up the hot riding Irad Ortiz.  The latter had only four dirt races going back to January 2019, and all four put him in the picture.  He'd won last time out at 10/1 over Fortune Cookie who was the 3/2 favorite.  I used Fortune Cookie on all six tickets and with Yodel E.A. Who, and put Champagneonme on five of the tickets.  Played out nearly as I'd envisioned it.....Yodel E.A. Who took command, pressed by Fortune Cookie with Champagneoneme waiting to come late.  It was 'Yodel who cracked first and 'Cookie took over.  Here came 'Champagne but he couldn't get by.  No matter to me as through the final furlong I had them both.  Fortune Cookie was the second choice and I was now alive into the final leg of the sequence with SIX tickets.

The ninth was my BEST BET, Frosted Grace, the #2 horse.  His last two and three of his last four speed figures would win by a pole.  Last time out he'd been caught on the wire by a highly regarded Pletcher sprinter and finished in front of a next out winner.  Looked very solid to me.  BUT....in looking at just the numbers I gave two others a legitimate enough chance to win in an upset.  #4 Whyruawesome had not run numbers good enough to win since last fall when under the care of now suspended trainer Jorge Navarro, but if he ran back to those he was a danger.  I put him on two tickets.  And the #6 Where Paradise Lay was included strictly based on numbers.  I can honestly say that had I not done the spread sheets I'd never have considered him.  His numbers were as good as the lower level figures for Frosted Grace but two back he'd been 15/1 against Frosted Grace when he ran second - and he was 7/2 that day.  AND it was some five lengths between them.  Still, enough numbers to include him on two tickets.  Frosted Grace was 4/5 and right out of the gate looked like he didn't want any part of running.  Into the far turn he was near the back.  Meanwhile a 19/1 front runner was leading them into the lane with a 7/1 hounding him.  But then here came Where Paradise Lay with a full head of steam and blew right by.  At the furlong marker Frosted Grace woke up and FLEW home to be second, but no threat to the winner.  So my chance at having payout six times went down the drain but with a non-favorite winning all three legs I was going to make money.

I laid out $36 for the six tickets and cashed on two of them at about $33 each so I basically doubled my money while only cashing one win bet.  Lost the finale when off slowly, rushed and gave way.  So for the day I had bounced back to have picked the winner in six straight races, cashing on two win bets and a Pick 3.

Next week Charles Town is opening and supposedly so is Churchill Downs.  More options!

May 7-11 Gulfstream Highlights

Derby Week

April 30 - May 3

This SHOULD have been Kentucky Derby Weekend with the big Kentucky Oaks card on Friday and the even bigger Kentucky Derby Day card on Saturday.  But with the continuing restrictions in place due to the pandemic the Derby weekend will not be held the first weekend in September.  But good for Oaklawn Park for stepping up and moving their Arkansas Derby weekend to the first weekend in May with the Fantasy Stakes on Friday for the fillies, and supporting stakes underneath, and the Arkansas Derby on Saturday, again with supporting stakes on the undercard.  You can judge the success of the move on many levels but on numbers alone.....the biggest previous handle for a single day at Oaklawn was $16 million on a Rebel Stakes Day a few years ago.  The Saturday card - drew over $41 MILLION in wagering.  Filled a huge void for true racing fans and the bettors came out and supported in with both hands.  Here's how the week unfolded for me......

Thursday April 30

Got to love the racing game.  Last Thursday, and Friday I had four wins on each day and headed into the big stakes weekend already having scored eight times.  Not so much this week.  I had several selections today and started off with a 2nd when the 8/5 favorite, Cardiac Kid took over turning for home and was caught by the third choice in mid-stretch.  The 2nd was the third 2yo race of the season and it was a maiden claiming event.  I planned to go against the Wesley Ward runner but in the end I didn't have a lot of confidence to make a straight-up win bet so I played a double ticket with four juveniles tied to my "best of the day" in the third.  Last week BOTH Ward runners shot out of the gate but were caught late.  Today Sunshine City came from well off the pace to be up in time as the favorite.

As I wrote in my in my analysis, it was hardly a "free bingo square" but it would be hard to imagine anyone beating Monmouth Dr in the third.  Granted, it was a $6.25K non-winners of two lifetime claimer going a one-turn mile and anything CAN happen in a horse race but....the three runners in the program who were single digit odds were:  a last out maiden winner who'd finally scored in his ninth try, a 1-for-12 runner who'd lost five in a row vs. cheap 2L rivals (twice at THIS level) and the second choice who "boasted" a lifetime record of 28/1-7-6.  Ouch.  The top pick had only been out seven times and hit the board in three of them.  Scored in a maiden $30K at Belmont and it was easy to toss three of the four most recent tries.  The two back try vs. $12.5K 2L runners was at this one-turn mile and he earned a 72 Beyer which would win by the length of the stretch today.  He was a just-miss 2nd that afternoon.  Top rider Irad Ortiz took the call.  Shortly before the third the monsoons opened up and you could hardly tell if the field was away and who was who until they hit the far turn.  Then my top choice, Monmouth Dr swooped to the front and quickly opened up.  LONG GONE as the prohibitive favorite and I had both my first win of the week and a Daily Double score.

I was disappointed when I noted in my analysis for the fourth that I'd take a long look at my pick even if it came off the turf.  Decided against and he won at $11.40.  Missed in the fifth at 4/5 when wide.  Did have a second later in the day at 3/2 odds but no more winners.

Friday May 1
The page turned to a new month today.  But the results for the day were as uninspiring as yesterday only times two.  That's because it was Fantasy Stakes Day at Oaklawn and that series of selections produced a 0-for day with three second place finishes on the day, including with the Best of the Day in the Gr 3 Fantasy where Venetian Harbor suffered her first loss when caught in the shadow of the wire by the winner of the Gr 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks.  As for the day at Gulfstream the rains from Thursday afternoon led to all but two late-afternoon races coming off the grass and leading to a loss of several of my selections.  My lone win on the day came in the fifth where I originally had a strong play at Gulfstream with Louie's Kingdom....check my analysis:

Louie won?  NO!  He scratched and unlike most races where I would just go on to pass the event I re-read through the above analysis and went with Awesome Action.  He set out on the lead and was pressured from the gate into the lane when he was able to get some separation.  But that came as a price as the closers made their run.  But he dug in gamely and scored

The one loss that haunted me today came in the lone turf bet of the day.  Dalarna renewed her rivalry with High Noon Rider.  Those two squared off at the beginning of the spring season and I thought the pace set up nicely for High Noon Rider.  She came rolling at a nice $11+ payoff and triggered a big Pick 3 and Daily Double score.  But today it looked like Dalarna - who was drawn on the rail - would be in complete control of the pace.  I went with her.  A longshot set out on a suicide mission and set a :45 half mile pace which would set up High Noon Rider if Dalarna moved too soon.  She did.  Sigh...  And finally in the 9th Snap Hook was everyone's single and my BEST BET.  Right out of the gate you could tell he just wasn't going to run today.  Badly beaten fifth.

Saturday May 2:  Arkansas Derby Day

First post at Oaklawn was at noon CST which meant 1 pm Eastern so the races alternated all day.  Lost in the first two at GP before the second at Oaklawn which was a Maiden Special for 3yo fillies.  It was a big field and anything could happen with these kind of lightly raced sophomores.  But on paper it looked like Steve Asmussen's debuting Scolding was solid.  She'd drawn a big $475K sales bid and had been working lights out at her Houston base before shipping here for one last work.  She was hand ridden from the gate to the top of the lane while "dueling" with another front runner.  Jockey Carlos Santana never moved and she opened up on her own.  When asked at the furlong pole she blew open the race and won geared down in an ultra-impressive fashion.  Look for her in stakes action down the road.

Missed at GP and in Arkansas before winning my second event in Hot Springs.  It was another maiden special sprint, but this one was for 3 and up colts.  The race looked to me to go strictly through Bank who ran well in a sprint debut last fall at Keeneland.  You could toss the two-turn experiment at Churchill and that led you to his 3yo debut when he earned a field best Beyer figure of 78 making his first start on the barn change to Steve Asmussen.  He sat mid-pack to the turn, began moving the smartly was held in the two-to-three path instead of going wide, then shot between horses and was J-U-S-T up on the wire.  Exciting race.

Missed with three straight - two at GP - before winning, again, at Oaklawn.  On March 7th when at Gulfstream I was also playing Santa Anita and had been struck by a maiden special event where a first time starter was listed at 3/5 in the program....yes, first time starter at 3/5.  Gamine had been a $1.8 Million sales grad and was training lights out for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert.  She walked with the race and looked stakes bound for sure.  But - and especially with the Oaks now in the Fall - Baffert took the conservative approach and sent her here in this allowance test.  She figured to be odds on and only had one logical rival who'd have to run the race of her life.  Speech had run Beyers that put her in the same ball park and could boast she was a best-of-the-rest 2nd to star filly Donna Veloce who is now a graded winner after losing the BC Juvenile Fillies in her second career start in a photo finish to a two-time graded stakes winner.  Gamine broke right on top and was home free, apparently turning for home.  But at the furlong pole Speech began to gain with every stride and with 100 yards to go seemed on even terms with all the momentum, but demonstrating the kind of special talent she is, Gamine said "NO" and dug in to edge clear by the narrowest of margins.  THAT was a great race!

Finally picked up my first Gulfstream winner in the next bet.  I thought that Saffie Joseph's Overdeliver looked very strong in the 8th, an entry level allowance going a one-turn mile.  Filtering through his past performances you could see he was very effective in one-turn events and his last had seen him too far back early when closing to just miss.  Irad Ortiz a 36% winner for Joseph and that conditioner is always strong with horses owed by Frank Calabrese.  Until about five minutes to post time he was the short-priced favorite.  But as we got closer to post time his odds started to float up a little.  Today he tracked the pace through the far turn, slid outside into the clear and pushed past the favorite before drawing off as easily best.  But the best part was his odds floated all the way up to 4/1, unbelievable.  And I had tripled the bet so I was cashing for $60.

This in and of itself was exciting but I was very pumped with the price for another reason.  I had played a Pick 3 with Overdeliver in the first leg and three horses in the upcoming Honey Rider Stakes and closed the sequence with my BEST BET of the Weekend.  In the turf stakes which was the middle leg I had the favorite who was a single in the multi-race sequences for many she was exiting back-to-back graded stakes wins.  My two other choices were the anticipated front runner who had earned a huge Beyer but on dirt and a longshot.  That one was out of it but the pace setter was there turning for home.  My top choice, Highland Glory had been checked in the first turn which cost her a spot or two but as a closer I wasn't out of it.  She began weaving through traffic on the turn and had momentum but didn't have a clear path.  Shifted paths and closed with a rush but couldn't catch the 17/1 winner who'd had smoothing sailing to the wire.  So disappointed.  Next up at Oaklawn Todd Pletcher's Fearless was going a mile and a sixteenth in an allowance test.  He'd been ultra-impressive on Holy Bull Day at Gulfstream and was a troubled fourth in the Grade 2 New Orleans Handicap.  For some reason today John Velazquez had him way, WAY back and his flying finish came up short.  That led us to the BET of the Weekend.  The 10th at Gulfstream was the Big Drama Stakes and it was really, REALLY difficult for me to look past Chad Brown's Network Effect.  Here's the case I made for him.....Last time out he made his four-year-old debut off a three month layoff.  He'd been a fast closing 2nd, just missing by half a length.  His Beyer of 95 was a new career top and just a click above his two top 3yo numbers (93-94).  All those numbers would require a career effort by his rivals to beat him.  And you had to figure he'd improve today.  But add this in....in that race comeback, he'd clipped heels at the start and was much farther back than he usually was.  Uh oh, a clean trip and he's tons the best.

But wait....he'd won an open MSW at Saratoga to break his debut then ran second in two open, graded stakes.  Today he dropped into this STATE-bred event out of open company.  BIG TIME WOW.....  As the race unfolded he was saving ground up close along the rail into the turn.  But then three of them lined up and two others moved outside of him and he was pinned, blocked with no where to go at this critical juncture of the race.  Too late to swing wide, or was it?  And if he did, how much ground would he lose?  Later when interviewed Irad Ortiz commented he knew he was sitting on a ton of horse and told himself to just be patient and wait for the opportunity.  That came moments later as they spread across the track with heads turned for home.  A slim opening appeared along the rail and Network Effect shot through.  Now in the clear with nothing but clear race track in front of him he quickened noticeably and immediately distanced himself from the field.

Inside the final two hundred yards he was in hand and closed out the stakes win as much, MUCH the best, justifying my BIG BET of the Day!  Cashed for $80 as he was triple the value I expected him to be in this restricted event.  Looking for him in open and/or graded stakes next time out.

My pick was a "no show" in Gulfstream's English Channel bringing us to the first of the two divisions of the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby.  Kudos to Oaklawn for (a) splitting the race to allow all of the runners a shot at a big $500 purse in each division (was $750 for one field).  And a big shout out to the Derby points committee for allowing BOTH divisions to earn full points towards the running of the 2020 Kentucky Derby.  All of this was great news for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert because he'd been concerned about how to keep his two superstars apart as long as possible.  You know either Charlatan or Nadal would have run in the Santa Anita Derby or perhaps the Bluegrass.  But with no where else to run he was forced to run them both here.  Would love to know how the "luck of the draw" led to the two of them being in different divisions.  In the first division Charlatan had drawn the rail and that was the ONLY issue.  He had only been out twice and both times cruised comfortably on the lead.  Couldn't afford to break a step slowly or have his path cut off.  But if clear, he looked to be LONG gone.  His two starts had earned Beyers of 105 and 106, the two fastest figures by ANY three-year-old in 2020.  What was also VERY interesting was the comparison of his career start to that of Triple Crown winner Justify.  The latter debuted on February 18th in a MSW sprint and won with a 104 Beyer; Charlatan debuted on February 16th with a winning Beyer of 105.  Justify made his second start in a one mile allowance around two turns on March 11th and won by daylight with a 101 Beyer; Charlatan went a two-turn mile on March 14th with a 106 Beyer as he drew off by 10 1/4 lengths.  The third start for Justify was the winning Kentucky Derby.  Here was Charlatan in the Gr 1 Arkansas Derby on the first Saturday in May.  He broke sharply and I knew that was nearly the end of the race.  But then the fractions came up....a wicked :22 and change for the opening quarter and :46 for the half, then 1:09 for six furlongs.  That's WAY fast for a nine furlong test, but he looked oh-so-comfortable.  On the turn the field began to make their move, but what leaped off the TV screen to me was how hard the other riders were working on their colts and how nearly motionless Martin Garcia was on Charlatan.  Once he'd straightened into the stretch he shook the reins and the margin grew with each and every stride.  Drew off as TONS the best.  Sooooo talented.  He may have won the Kentucky Derby had it been run today was my comment to my son Jeff.

Missed in the Gr 2 Oaklawn Handicap leading us to the second division of the Gr 1 Arkansas Derby.  Baffert's Nadal had drawn into the "tougher" division, at least that was my opinion and one shared on the TVG broadcast as well.  But having won the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes here a month ago in a truly courageous effort that showed he possesses a world of talent, he figured to be the favorite.  But as the betting unfolded he was a lot shorter price than I thought (and the TVG analysts thought) he would be.  About ten minutes out from post time there were two telling comments that were aired as part of the national broadcast.  First, former trainer Simon Bray told the story that he'd seen Nadal work recently and thought it was interesting that that morning the exercise rider had kept Nadal well off the pace set by his workmate and then came flying by him late in the workout.  He said Baffert often did that just in case a talented front runner found himself not on the lead.  AND he shared how in 2015 another Baffert colt had come to the Arkansas Derby and found himself having to rate off the lead before running away.....that was American Pharoah (and we were there that day!  Sure enough, into the first turn the winner of the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby shot to the front from his wide draw in post 11.  Jockey Joel Rosario patiently let him go on with the lead and took Nadal in hand just to his outside.  As they approached the far turn and the leader tried to take off under urging, Rosario barely moved his hands as Nadal cruised by confidently.  Into the lane the field began to make up ground.  The Gr 2 Tampa Bay Derby winner got within a length at the furlong pole but Nadal lengthened his stride and opened up to win as impressively if not more so than Charlatan.  OK, so maybe HE would have won the Kentucky Derby today!

Finally, it was interesting that Churchill Downs and the Kentucky Derby ran a mythical Derby today which was featured on a three hour NBC telecast.  The field of thirteen computer generated runners were all the winners of the Triple Crown.  You could "bet" on the horses with your "bet" becoming a donation to fight the pandemic.  As they came into the stretch it was a thrilling finish as called live by NBC horse racing announcer Larry Colmus and Secretariat - who I'd picked - won in a narrow decision.

Arkansas Derby Day Highlights

Sunday May 3
So the results from Saturday were MUCH more like it.  When I'd gone through the Sunday card I had found it difficult to find many runners who presented a good betting opportunity and in fact on the twelve race card I had six "PASS" races including four of the last five.  The first two races did not present a great money-making opportunity, but it was a fairly solid bet that both favorites were going to win.  In the opener I virtually guaranteed the favorite would be odds-on.  The negatives were obvious for Etana.... she'd already lost seven times, the last four by a combined nearly SIXTY lengths.  OH MY!  Conversely, of the eighty combined starts by the rest of the field there was ONE figure that would beat her last five numbers.  Oh.  The 3yo Super Saver filly was dropping from MSW company all the way down to this $12.5K level for trainer Saffie Joseph with top rider Irad Ortiz on board.  AND the blinkers were coming off, a 30% winning angle.  As "Announcer Pete" called when the field was approaching the far turn, Etana IS a stretch runner, but she was completely and I mean COMPLETELY out of the TV picture.  But as the field began to swing for home here she came.  And she was gobbling up ground at a rate of two or three strides to one.  By the 16th pole it wasn't a question of IF she'd when but simply by how much.  Blew by and drew off handily at odds on.

In the second Candy Crushem looked to be a similar short price.  Many of the same angles were in play.....class dropping, figure edge and Irad Ortiz on board.  Trainer Monica McGooey was off to an 0-for-11 start this spring but that was somewhat offset by the sharp bullet work 'Candy had for today's start.  Ortiz sat patiently off the speed to the turn, inhaled the top two and ran away as much the best to give me my second win in a row.

Missed in the third when my "Upset Special" went from 8/1 to 7/2 at post time and had no finish in a maiden claiming turf route.  Passed the fourth and fifth before we got to the sixth.  I thought Tournesol was deserving of a short price favoritism and she was being bet that way early on.  She came off a very troubled outing, which the analysts talked a lot about and she was dropping in class.  Fortunately for me both on-air analysts really liked the last-out maiden winner.  For me, I kept thinking, "That's right, talk her up" because I'll take a class dropping runner who's run well vs. winners against a last out maiden nearly every time.  As post time approached the odds began to climb for Tournesol.  The race went nearly the way I'd envisioned it.  The crucial moment came midway on the turn when both my filly and the favorite were behind runners and the riders had to decide where to go.  Ortiz (who replaced Tyler Gaffalione early in the card when he called off his mounts for the rest of the day) opted to swing wide and forfeit the lengths while guaranteeing a clear run.  The favorite opted to stay inside.  Tournelsol had momentum and was getting to the leaders, about to run free when a seam opened and the favorite shot through.  At the furlong pole they were on event terms and I was afraid the wide move would be be my downfall but I think the "class" of having experience against winners over a last out maiden was telling late and she edged clear.  The final odds of 4/1 were a generous gift that guaranteed a winning day.  Cashed for $50, whooo hooo.

Missed on the last two, but the story for Sunday was only half about winning three of six and scoring a profit.  While listening to hottie Acacia Courtney and analyst Jason Blewitt go through the card it occurred to me that maybe I should play the Rainbow Pick 6.  But the ticket I thought would likely win was a $900 investment - way too rich for my tastes.  So I decided to look at a slightly toned down version of these same horses in a series of Pick-3 selections over Race 7-8-9, 8-9-10, 9-10-11, and 10-11-12.  This would give me interest in watching all the races today.  The numbers worked out to an investment of $131.  That was not too high, but enough that I wondered how much it was worth it.  I looked up the Pick-3 payoffs for Saturday for those sequences and I'd have made money by hitting just one or two of them, but there had been a 16/1 winner in the mix.  Back and forth and finally I asked Kim.  She suggested that since she was going to be spending money on a Girls' Getaway this weekend it would be a good way to spend some "play money."  And she encouraged me to go for it.  I said I wasn't sure yet - especially because a lot of the horses were NOT my own personal picks.  I considered maybe I'd bet the first Pick 3 and see how it went.  But as we got close to the sequences I decided not to play.  Well, the winner of the first leg of the first race was a 20/1 winner and that would virtually guarantee I'd have made money.  If only I'd gone with the "play the first one."  I was almost hoping not to win the first set even though I had a pick (who didn't win).  By the end of the day, I'd have cashed on ALL four of the tickets.  My stunned reaction :(

I will say I regretted playing in general, especially the first one.  But had I jumped in after that to play the last three I'd have invested $90 to win $50 profit.  Nothing to sneeze at but that's not the return I'm looking for with a multi-race wager.  Of course to have played them all I'd have come out nearly $350 ahead.  And I will also add that when I made the final decision not to play I told myself I would look at this for next week if I'd have profited.  So I'll look forward to this coming weekend with some degree of confidence.  Oh....as for the Rainbow Pick 6 ticket....it paid $15,000.  Event at that, not sure I'd have invested the $900 for that return, still.  You can see the entire sequence of all the Pick 3 races on Sunday in the Gulfstream Highlight video below.

Gulfstream Highlights April 30 - May 3