Spring / Summer Week 6

The Week I Hit THREE Pick-3's

Thursday May 7 - Sunday May 11

So, how you (and I) view the week largely is determined by how you view the three sequences of Pick-3 races I hit for the week.  How so, you ask?  Well for the week, it was a lean week in terms of picking winners.  On Thursday and Friday I had one win each day; on Saturday I had two outright winners.  And on Sunday I had two more.  Considering that two weeks ago I went into the weekend with eight winners already in the folder.  And last week after a slow start to the week I watched eight winners cross the line on Saturday, Arkansas Derby Day alone.  But when the last race completed this week I'd had just six winners for the four day racing week.  However, if you counted the Pick-3 wins, I had TWELVE wins on the week.  And to take it a step further,  I had another winner on Friday and two more on Saturday as part of Pick-3 sequences that where I didn't hit all three.  So at the end of the weekend I'd had fifteen races where the horse I'd picked to win crossed the finish line first.  This caused me to reevaluate how I keep my records considering that I'm playing more multi-race wagers.  So one project I'll undertake will be to look back through the spring season and add those races in and see how it changes my winning numbers.  But, here's how the week unfolded for me.

Thursday

Kim had left Wednesday morning for a Girls' Weekend in Daytona and was coupling that with an extended weekend in Orlando so I was looking at nearly a week home alone.  The weather was wonderful and as I handicapped the races this morning awaiting the start of the race day I took a photo to document how wonderful my setting is here in Sunrise.  In the opener my pick was the 3/5 favorite in a maiden claiming turf sprint.  But the trip was five wide and he was no better than third.  Passed the second which was a 2yo MSW event and in the third I liked Take Charge Again in a non-winners of two lifetime sprint.  Last time out she'd dropped in for this cheap price and restricted company but "broke awkwardly and was last of ten.  But she rallied strongly behind a runaway winner to get second.  With a clean start she looked tough to beat.  She did today, and rode the rail from her inside post position while stalking the leaders in fourth.  At the top of the lane she swung off the rail into the clear four wide and powered home as much the best.  The 8/5 price enabled me to cash a ticket worth nearly $30.  Here we go I thought.  Such was not to be the case.  In the fourth going two turns on the turf my horse was moving strongly up the backstretch along the rail when checked sharply, then clipped heals losing all momentum and chance.  In the sixth I had the 3/5 favorite and Victory Town cruised to the lead outside of the second choice who had led them into the turn.  But as heads turned for home that one would not go away and he re-rallied to finish in front of me, relegating me to second.  Had a 9/1 longshot in the 8th but was left at the gate; then when making a strong move, and I actually thought "I'm going to win in spite of the start," but was checked sharply on the turn.  Got clear and finished very strongly for third.  Oh what could have been.  In the 9th I was 5/2 and on the move with no where to run, waited for room and got out too late, third.  Finally in the tenth I was the 9/5 favorite and had every chance but was too far off the pace and ended up third.  

Friday
Today was an excellent example of how the week went.  From seven races I played, my horse won three of them.  You can't argue with that.  But only one of them was the WIN bet.  In the opener I thought it was a wide open event but it looked to me like a 12/1 longshot had every right to go wire to wire.  Left the gate at 14/1 and led into the lane....oh my, then stopped to finish ninth.  In the second, a 2yo MSW event I passed.  Also took a pass in the fourth.  The remainder of the card I had good selections I thought, and so I decided to play multiple Pick 3 tickets.  In the fifth we were sprinting five furlongs on the turf for a $16K price tag.  R Boy Bode looked to me to be the speed of the race, and with the rail draw and Emsiael Jaramillo on board he looked long gone.  I thought the only one who stood a chance to upset the favorite was parked on the outside, New York's Finest.  I thought the draw would lead him to track my selection to the lane where I spurt free.  But when the gates opened I was away slowly losing all chance.  That break handed an easy lead to New York's Finest and he cruised right to the front at 2/1 odds and never looked back.  Fortunately, I had used them both on the ticket.

The sixth was a maiden claiming sprint which I thought provided the UPSET SPECIAL opportunity of the day.  Todd Pletcher has been, to this point, "merely mortal" and several of his runners had failed to produce at short odds.  So I thought his entry in here, Bardot was vulnerable.  He'd dueled gate to deep stretch and was a best of the rest second for $25K.  Now dropped to this $16K he was a legitimate favorite.  But I liked Harmonic Thunder for Saffie Joseph who was 20/1 in the program.  The race unfolded nearly as I'd seen it.  Bardot at 3/5 near the front and took over heading for home.  And he was weakening as he approached the wire.  'Thunder stalked the pace at 12/1 and was ready to roll but when asked, just finished evenly.  Fortunately Bardot held on while my win bet dead-heated for fourth.  I had a third horse on the ticket at 7/1 but he was dead last.  I'm alive heading into the final leg and that would be my BET of the Day.

The seventh was the key to the day.  This was an $8K claiming race going a one-turn mile on the main track.  And as I commented in my analysis, unless you got a "well, that's horse racing" kind of result, this race went strictly through the favorite, Enlisting.  He'd won three of his last four, and the lone loss came when trying the turf.  Toss that and he'd won his last three dirt races.  He was also a perfect three-for-three at the one-turn mile.  Add it that today he went first off the claim for trainer Victor Barboza who wins with an astounding 56% of those and you can see why he was the BET of the Day.  He was third early in the going but cruised up on the turn, took over turning for home and won by as many as he wanted.  The prime time play netted a return of over $30 and sealed the first Pick 3 winning ticket of the week.

I also keyed him in a middle sequence and in a late sequence.  But not only did none of my win bets win those (2nd in both) but the horses I had in the multi-race sequence also failed to deliver.  I thought I had solid bets in the final two races as well and had a late Pick 3 but none of them hit.  So I ended the day with one WIN bet winner but three picks crossing the line first.  "Celebrated" with a glass of wine on the back deck and shared my "lonely view" on Facebook - got 40 hits via social media and several friends having a "virtual drink" with me :)

Saturday
With Oaklawn closing their doors last Saturday that left only Tampa and Gulfstream to carry the load for thoroughbred racing (sorry, just don't count Fonner Park in Nebraska or Will Rogers Downs in Oklahoma).  I have found Tampa racing to be less predictable, especially in the spring but with no other options I thought I'd look any way.  And surprisingly I found several horses that I thought looked legitimate.  In fact the one horse on the day that looked like THE most likely winner was running at Tampa.  But for the day in Oldsmar I only had one winner, and at 1/5 at that, to go with two seconds and two thirds.  The "sure thing".....fifth behind a 17/1 winner.  Dismal day on the west coast of Florida.  And at Gulfstream I also had just one WIN bet come home.  But as the day ended I felt much better about my handicapping because my day actually went like this:  1st - 9th, 2nd - 3rd, 3rd - 4th, 4th - 3rd, 6th - WIN, 7th - WIN, 8th - 2nd, 9th WIN, 10th - WIN, 11th - WIN.  So as you see, as the day ended I finished with five winning selections in the last six races and was 2nd in the other.  BUT....only one of those came on a straight win bet.  No explaining how my 5/2 choice in the opener.  In the second it was a 2yo race and I was irritated with myself for backing a Wesley Ward 2yo AGAIN but I was convinced when the DRF's Mike Welsch made him his BEST of the day to go in.  Third at 9/5 while the Todd Pletcher horse who got all kinds of attention won at a fair price.  Less than a quality ride on the turf in the third when taken to the back off a slow pace.  Closed seven wide with a rush, too little, too late in fourth.  Cruised up with the perfect trip in the fifth but no finish at 5/1, third.  The sixth I liked Todd Pletcher's Riggins.  He'd only been eighth in his debut, but that was in MSW company and he'd been fanned very wide turning for home.  Today he dropped in for a high $65K price tag and got Irad Ortiz.  Came charging down the lane after getting a seam at the top of the stretch and won as the best horse in the race.

Only had the minimum so the payoff of $20 was generous.  The seventh began the first of overlapping Pick 3 bets for me.  It was a turf sprint for three-year-olds and it looked to me like a speed duel would set up Compensate who was exiting a strong finishing 2nd in the Melody of Colors Stakes a month ago.  I put him on the ticket with another finisher and the two speed horses just in case one of them got loose.  Sure enough, Foolish Humor at 7/2 went to the front and the other front runner decided not to go with him.  Wired the field, holding on desperately to that other front runner - so as they deliberated the photo result I knew (a) I'd lost on my win bet but (b) I was going to be alive in the Pick 3.  The 7/2 price meant I would have a nice price if I could cash on the other two legs.  The middle leg saw me on Louie's Kingdom who was a prohibitive favorite.  He was a standout in the field and was even Caton Bradar's single in the $12 Million Rainbow Pick 6.  And he was every handicapper's top choice.  Right to the front but took some pressure from a 5/1 outsider.  Put that one away into the lane and opened up.  Only to be run down by an 11/1 outsider.  I had two alternatives as savers on the P3 but he wasn't one of them.  In retrospect how I left that guy off is a mystery.  The race was a non-winners of two lifetime and I always look for horses running in that condition for the first time.  Only two in the field were like that.  A 30/1 outsider and another that was the 9/2 fourth choice in the program.  EVERYONE overlooked that one and he's the 11/1 winner.  I'd used Louie's Kingdom and the other two as the first leg in a second sequence of Pick 3 bets so I was now dead on both tickets.  In the ninth, the Sunshine Forever Stakes - a one mile turf event - I went with a 10/1 graded stakes winner to upset the field, but also put in both Todd Pletcher horses and another of the top betting choices, as well as a 40/1 Euro invader.  When a couple of scratches were announced I really should have re-handicapped for the win bet because the pace dynamic now left Pletcher's Halladay ALL ALONE on the front end.  Sure enough, he wired the field as the 6/5 favorite.

So I had the first and third legs of the first Pick 3 and would have been alive in the second leg of the second set, but was also alive on the final and third ticket.  Race ten I didn't have a strong enough opinion on any of the runners to make a win bet because I couldn't toss out Battle of Blenheim but I also didn't think he was throw out.  Didn't help my confidence level that in the last five times I'd seen him run I'd bet him three times - lost them all - did not trust him in the others and he won.  So I didn't bet him, but DID put him in the Pick 3.  He was JUST up in time.  I was alive through the second leg.

Note that this would have made two Pick 3 winning tickets in a row had I noted the R8 winner in the nw2L that I left out.  They paid $78 and $44.  Not life-changing, but would have paid for all the bets on the day.  In race eleven I really liked Todd Pletcher's I'll Fight Dempsey.  His debut run on Fountain of Youth Day had been sensational.  He'd gone wire to wire in a dazzling performance which was validated when the runner-up, a Chad Brown horse came right back to win.  When 'Dempsey reappeared in an allowance event going 7f on the first weekend of the spring he was the hot 1/2 favorite.  Whether it was the extra furlong, the first time winners, or the sizzling fractions of :44.3 and 1:09.3 that did him in - or a combination - he faded to fourth.  BUT....at the six furlong mark he'd actually run faster, on a faster pace than his debut.  So today the return to six furlongs pointed him out.  And even more important, he was going from open company to state-bred rivals.  My only concern for the Pick 3 was that Pletcher had sent out SO many favorites that have gone down the drain.  So I looked for alternatives.  I put a Tampa invader on all four tickets; I used an impressive last out maiden winner on one ticket, and I used Tap It To Win on two tickets.  He'd won impressively in his maiden at Saratoga - that's ALWAYS a good sign.  Then he ran in two stakes events, way over his head.  Today he was coming off a layoff, but if he ran back to the Saratoga race he was every bit as talented as I'll Fight Dempsey.  The Pletcher colt was pressured from the get go but had a head in front going into the turn.  But that was it at odds of 9/5, he faded badly.  The last out maiden winner took over at 5/1 but in mid-stretch Tap It To Win came flying by to score at better than $12 and clinched the final Pick 3 ticket.

With two winning tickets I cashed out at better than $60.  So, even though I only had one win bet score, I had correctly identified the winner in five of the last six races and felt pretty good about my day.

Sunday
The weather forecast all week had been for a major storm system to move through late Saturday and produce rain nearly all day Sunday, some of it reportedly enough to produce local flooding.  But as the week came to it's conclusion the forecasts changed to very late Saturday night for the storm to hit, letting the Saturday card play out as it was set up; and then the majority of the rain was more south of Fort Lauderdale.  That meant for me, handicapping the races, big questions as to (a) what surface we'd be on and (b) who would stay in the races.  So I basically handicapped fourteen races for the ten race card.  An hour before post time when Jason Blewitt and hottie Acacia Courtney came on the air to analyze the card, we were still "Fast and Firm."  But within ten minutes of the beginning of the show they were told ALL races were now off the turf.  In the opener, originally scheduled for 8f on the turf I had thought if moved to the main track that #9 Bella Gianna could take these wire to wire.  She went off at a big 10/1 price and led to the final strides before caught by the favorite.  In the second I led to the turn and stopped at 9/5.  In the third I liked #8 Tipsy gain on the front end.  Much like the first, right to the front, all the way to a head bobbing photo.....second.

Bella Gianna (inside) CAUGHT in the opener - the lovely Acacia - Tipsy (inside) CAUGHT in the third

And so we headed into the middle part of the card.  I was 5/1 and completely out of it in the 4th.  But finally my fortune changed in the fifth.  This nw2L claiming event going a one-turn mile seemed more like a who CANNOT win that several win contenders.  And with that in mind Les Tres Jolie "stood out" to me.  The two "most likely" win candidates were a 1-for-11 runner who'd given way multiple times on the lead and a Tampa turf winner.  As the field approached the far turn - and you can't tell this in the highlight film below because I picked up the action near the top of the lane - Les Tres Jolie was STILL lagging far back.  But on the turn she began to run and she caught both my eye and that of Announcer Pete.  The top five separated turning for home like the parting of the Red Sea and she stormed through to win going away, at a big 5/1 price.  Cashed for $50 and I was very happy.

I passed the sixth, a maiden special event on the dirt.  I found it so difficult to find anyone to like that my entire analysis was two sentences...... "Not willing to go in enough to bet but 4-R U Royalty (12/1) has run figures as good as the program choices but unlike his rivals ALL of his came in OPEN MSW events.  Goes turf to dirt which is an 0-for-18 angle, ouch."  You can guess - won for fun and paid $27 - no bet.  Sigh.....  Because there's no racing on Monday I spent the morning laying out spread sheets of all the speed figures for the horses in races 7-through-10.  After missing the "obvious" 11/1 winner yesterday it occurred to me that an old process I'd used where I looked at only the numbers before handicapping might lead me to some potential price plays in Pick-3 situations.  And in this four race sequence I thought I had legitimate runners to lean on.  If the 7th came off the turf it seemed very obvious that the one to beat would be #10 Trev.  He'd won four straight in three of those his Beyer figures would win by a pole.  But if he ran that "other" race he could prove vulnerable.  But using the "A-B-C" method of ranking the runners he was clearly an "A" ticket.  Three other runners were worthy of minor chances, so I laid out six tickets.  Trev was on all six, so if he won I'd have the shorter priced Pick 3 ticket six times.  The others I used on two tickets each.  Trev dueled to the top of the lane and then pulled away to win by daylight.  But the best part was he left the gate somehow at a very inflated 2/1 price AND paid more than $6 so my triple investment netted nearly $50.

I'm a flat-bet winner for the day on win bets now regardless of what happens in the final three races.  But more importantly I'm alive in the Pick 3 on ALL six tickets.  In race 8, if you tossed the last race for Yodel E.A. Who when stumbling at the gate, and his "awkward start" four back, then four of his six races earned Beyers that would win handily.  And he was Ron Nicoletti's BEST Bet.  I thought he was a "good bet," but noted he was 0-for-2 at the distance and his three wins had come vs. lesser.  So I didn't want to make him a "lone ranger" on any tickets.  I thought his main competition would come from #6 Fortune Cookie and #7 Champagneonme.  The former was one of those that if you gave him excuses recently he had plenty of back races that would win here AND today he picked up the hot riding Irad Ortiz.  The latter had only four dirt races going back to January 2019, and all four put him in the picture.  He'd won last time out at 10/1 over Fortune Cookie who was the 3/2 favorite.  I used Fortune Cookie on all six tickets and with Yodel E.A. Who, and put Champagneonme on five of the tickets.  Played out nearly as I'd envisioned it.....Yodel E.A. Who took command, pressed by Fortune Cookie with Champagneoneme waiting to come late.  It was 'Yodel who cracked first and 'Cookie took over.  Here came 'Champagne but he couldn't get by.  No matter to me as through the final furlong I had them both.  Fortune Cookie was the second choice and I was now alive into the final leg of the sequence with SIX tickets.

The ninth was my BEST BET, Frosted Grace, the #2 horse.  His last two and three of his last four speed figures would win by a pole.  Last time out he'd been caught on the wire by a highly regarded Pletcher sprinter and finished in front of a next out winner.  Looked very solid to me.  BUT....in looking at just the numbers I gave two others a legitimate enough chance to win in an upset.  #4 Whyruawesome had not run numbers good enough to win since last fall when under the care of now suspended trainer Jorge Navarro, but if he ran back to those he was a danger.  I put him on two tickets.  And the #6 Where Paradise Lay was included strictly based on numbers.  I can honestly say that had I not done the spread sheets I'd never have considered him.  His numbers were as good as the lower level figures for Frosted Grace but two back he'd been 15/1 against Frosted Grace when he ran second - and he was 7/2 that day.  AND it was some five lengths between them.  Still, enough numbers to include him on two tickets.  Frosted Grace was 4/5 and right out of the gate looked like he didn't want any part of running.  Into the far turn he was near the back.  Meanwhile a 19/1 front runner was leading them into the lane with a 7/1 hounding him.  But then here came Where Paradise Lay with a full head of steam and blew right by.  At the furlong marker Frosted Grace woke up and FLEW home to be second, but no threat to the winner.  So my chance at having payout six times went down the drain but with a non-favorite winning all three legs I was going to make money.

I laid out $36 for the six tickets and cashed on two of them at about $33 each so I basically doubled my money while only cashing one win bet.  Lost the finale when off slowly, rushed and gave way.  So for the day I had bounced back to have picked the winner in six straight races, cashing on two win bets and a Pick 3.

Next week Charles Town is opening and supposedly so is Churchill Downs.  More options!

May 7-11 Gulfstream Highlights

Derby Week

April 30 - May 3

This SHOULD have been Kentucky Derby Weekend with the big Kentucky Oaks card on Friday and the even bigger Kentucky Derby Day card on Saturday.  But with the continuing restrictions in place due to the pandemic the Derby weekend will not be held the first weekend in September.  But good for Oaklawn Park for stepping up and moving their Arkansas Derby weekend to the first weekend in May with the Fantasy Stakes on Friday for the fillies, and supporting stakes underneath, and the Arkansas Derby on Saturday, again with supporting stakes on the undercard.  You can judge the success of the move on many levels but on numbers alone.....the biggest previous handle for a single day at Oaklawn was $16 million on a Rebel Stakes Day a few years ago.  The Saturday card - drew over $41 MILLION in wagering.  Filled a huge void for true racing fans and the bettors came out and supported in with both hands.  Here's how the week unfolded for me......

Thursday April 30

Got to love the racing game.  Last Thursday, and Friday I had four wins on each day and headed into the big stakes weekend already having scored eight times.  Not so much this week.  I had several selections today and started off with a 2nd when the 8/5 favorite, Cardiac Kid took over turning for home and was caught by the third choice in mid-stretch.  The 2nd was the third 2yo race of the season and it was a maiden claiming event.  I planned to go against the Wesley Ward runner but in the end I didn't have a lot of confidence to make a straight-up win bet so I played a double ticket with four juveniles tied to my "best of the day" in the third.  Last week BOTH Ward runners shot out of the gate but were caught late.  Today Sunshine City came from well off the pace to be up in time as the favorite.

As I wrote in my in my analysis, it was hardly a "free bingo square" but it would be hard to imagine anyone beating Monmouth Dr in the third.  Granted, it was a $6.25K non-winners of two lifetime claimer going a one-turn mile and anything CAN happen in a horse race but....the three runners in the program who were single digit odds were:  a last out maiden winner who'd finally scored in his ninth try, a 1-for-12 runner who'd lost five in a row vs. cheap 2L rivals (twice at THIS level) and the second choice who "boasted" a lifetime record of 28/1-7-6.  Ouch.  The top pick had only been out seven times and hit the board in three of them.  Scored in a maiden $30K at Belmont and it was easy to toss three of the four most recent tries.  The two back try vs. $12.5K 2L runners was at this one-turn mile and he earned a 72 Beyer which would win by the length of the stretch today.  He was a just-miss 2nd that afternoon.  Top rider Irad Ortiz took the call.  Shortly before the third the monsoons opened up and you could hardly tell if the field was away and who was who until they hit the far turn.  Then my top choice, Monmouth Dr swooped to the front and quickly opened up.  LONG GONE as the prohibitive favorite and I had both my first win of the week and a Daily Double score.

I was disappointed when I noted in my analysis for the fourth that I'd take a long look at my pick even if it came off the turf.  Decided against and he won at $11.40.  Missed in the fifth at 4/5 when wide.  Did have a second later in the day at 3/2 odds but no more winners.

Friday May 1
The page turned to a new month today.  But the results for the day were as uninspiring as yesterday only times two.  That's because it was Fantasy Stakes Day at Oaklawn and that series of selections produced a 0-for day with three second place finishes on the day, including with the Best of the Day in the Gr 3 Fantasy where Venetian Harbor suffered her first loss when caught in the shadow of the wire by the winner of the Gr 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks.  As for the day at Gulfstream the rains from Thursday afternoon led to all but two late-afternoon races coming off the grass and leading to a loss of several of my selections.  My lone win on the day came in the fifth where I originally had a strong play at Gulfstream with Louie's Kingdom....check my analysis:

Louie won?  NO!  He scratched and unlike most races where I would just go on to pass the event I re-read through the above analysis and went with Awesome Action.  He set out on the lead and was pressured from the gate into the lane when he was able to get some separation.  But that came as a price as the closers made their run.  But he dug in gamely and scored

The one loss that haunted me today came in the lone turf bet of the day.  Dalarna renewed her rivalry with High Noon Rider.  Those two squared off at the beginning of the spring season and I thought the pace set up nicely for High Noon Rider.  She came rolling at a nice $11+ payoff and triggered a big Pick 3 and Daily Double score.  But today it looked like Dalarna - who was drawn on the rail - would be in complete control of the pace.  I went with her.  A longshot set out on a suicide mission and set a :45 half mile pace which would set up High Noon Rider if Dalarna moved too soon.  She did.  Sigh...  And finally in the 9th Snap Hook was everyone's single and my BEST BET.  Right out of the gate you could tell he just wasn't going to run today.  Badly beaten fifth.

Saturday May 2:  Arkansas Derby Day

First post at Oaklawn was at noon CST which meant 1 pm Eastern so the races alternated all day.  Lost in the first two at GP before the second at Oaklawn which was a Maiden Special for 3yo fillies.  It was a big field and anything could happen with these kind of lightly raced sophomores.  But on paper it looked like Steve Asmussen's debuting Scolding was solid.  She'd drawn a big $475K sales bid and had been working lights out at her Houston base before shipping here for one last work.  She was hand ridden from the gate to the top of the lane while "dueling" with another front runner.  Jockey Carlos Santana never moved and she opened up on her own.  When asked at the furlong pole she blew open the race and won geared down in an ultra-impressive fashion.  Look for her in stakes action down the road.

Missed at GP and in Arkansas before winning my second event in Hot Springs.  It was another maiden special sprint, but this one was for 3 and up colts.  The race looked to me to go strictly through Bank who ran well in a sprint debut last fall at Keeneland.  You could toss the two-turn experiment at Churchill and that led you to his 3yo debut when he earned a field best Beyer figure of 78 making his first start on the barn change to Steve Asmussen.  He sat mid-pack to the turn, began moving the smartly was held in the two-to-three path instead of going wide, then shot between horses and was J-U-S-T up on the wire.  Exciting race.

Missed with three straight - two at GP - before winning, again, at Oaklawn.  On March 7th when at Gulfstream I was also playing Santa Anita and had been struck by a maiden special event where a first time starter was listed at 3/5 in the program....yes, first time starter at 3/5.  Gamine had been a $1.8 Million sales grad and was training lights out for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert.  She walked with the race and looked stakes bound for sure.  But - and especially with the Oaks now in the Fall - Baffert took the conservative approach and sent her here in this allowance test.  She figured to be odds on and only had one logical rival who'd have to run the race of her life.  Speech had run Beyers that put her in the same ball park and could boast she was a best-of-the-rest 2nd to star filly Donna Veloce who is now a graded winner after losing the BC Juvenile Fillies in her second career start in a photo finish to a two-time graded stakes winner.  Gamine broke right on top and was home free, apparently turning for home.  But at the furlong pole Speech began to gain with every stride and with 100 yards to go seemed on even terms with all the momentum, but demonstrating the kind of special talent she is, Gamine said "NO" and dug in to edge clear by the narrowest of margins.  THAT was a great race!

Finally picked up my first Gulfstream winner in the next bet.  I thought that Saffie Joseph's Overdeliver looked very strong in the 8th, an entry level allowance going a one-turn mile.  Filtering through his past performances you could see he was very effective in one-turn events and his last had seen him too far back early when closing to just miss.  Irad Ortiz a 36% winner for Joseph and that conditioner is always strong with horses owed by Frank Calabrese.  Until about five minutes to post time he was the short-priced favorite.  But as we got closer to post time his odds started to float up a little.  Today he tracked the pace through the far turn, slid outside into the clear and pushed past the favorite before drawing off as easily best.  But the best part was his odds floated all the way up to 4/1, unbelievable.  And I had tripled the bet so I was cashing for $60.

This in and of itself was exciting but I was very pumped with the price for another reason.  I had played a Pick 3 with Overdeliver in the first leg and three horses in the upcoming Honey Rider Stakes and closed the sequence with my BEST BET of the Weekend.  In the turf stakes which was the middle leg I had the favorite who was a single in the multi-race sequences for many she was exiting back-to-back graded stakes wins.  My two other choices were the anticipated front runner who had earned a huge Beyer but on dirt and a longshot.  That one was out of it but the pace setter was there turning for home.  My top choice, Highland Glory had been checked in the first turn which cost her a spot or two but as a closer I wasn't out of it.  She began weaving through traffic on the turn and had momentum but didn't have a clear path.  Shifted paths and closed with a rush but couldn't catch the 17/1 winner who'd had smoothing sailing to the wire.  So disappointed.  Next up at Oaklawn Todd Pletcher's Fearless was going a mile and a sixteenth in an allowance test.  He'd been ultra-impressive on Holy Bull Day at Gulfstream and was a troubled fourth in the Grade 2 New Orleans Handicap.  For some reason today John Velazquez had him way, WAY back and his flying finish came up short.  That led us to the BET of the Weekend.  The 10th at Gulfstream was the Big Drama Stakes and it was really, REALLY difficult for me to look past Chad Brown's Network Effect.  Here's the case I made for him.....Last time out he made his four-year-old debut off a three month layoff.  He'd been a fast closing 2nd, just missing by half a length.  His Beyer of 95 was a new career top and just a click above his two top 3yo numbers (93-94).  All those numbers would require a career effort by his rivals to beat him.  And you had to figure he'd improve today.  But add this in....in that race comeback, he'd clipped heels at the start and was much farther back than he usually was.  Uh oh, a clean trip and he's tons the best.

But wait....he'd won an open MSW at Saratoga to break his debut then ran second in two open, graded stakes.  Today he dropped into this STATE-bred event out of open company.  BIG TIME WOW.....  As the race unfolded he was saving ground up close along the rail into the turn.  But then three of them lined up and two others moved outside of him and he was pinned, blocked with no where to go at this critical juncture of the race.  Too late to swing wide, or was it?  And if he did, how much ground would he lose?  Later when interviewed Irad Ortiz commented he knew he was sitting on a ton of horse and told himself to just be patient and wait for the opportunity.  That came moments later as they spread across the track with heads turned for home.  A slim opening appeared along the rail and Network Effect shot through.  Now in the clear with nothing but clear race track in front of him he quickened noticeably and immediately distanced himself from the field.

Inside the final two hundred yards he was in hand and closed out the stakes win as much, MUCH the best, justifying my BIG BET of the Day!  Cashed for $80 as he was triple the value I expected him to be in this restricted event.  Looking for him in open and/or graded stakes next time out.

My pick was a "no show" in Gulfstream's English Channel bringing us to the first of the two divisions of the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby.  Kudos to Oaklawn for (a) splitting the race to allow all of the runners a shot at a big $500 purse in each division (was $750 for one field).  And a big shout out to the Derby points committee for allowing BOTH divisions to earn full points towards the running of the 2020 Kentucky Derby.  All of this was great news for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert because he'd been concerned about how to keep his two superstars apart as long as possible.  You know either Charlatan or Nadal would have run in the Santa Anita Derby or perhaps the Bluegrass.  But with no where else to run he was forced to run them both here.  Would love to know how the "luck of the draw" led to the two of them being in different divisions.  In the first division Charlatan had drawn the rail and that was the ONLY issue.  He had only been out twice and both times cruised comfortably on the lead.  Couldn't afford to break a step slowly or have his path cut off.  But if clear, he looked to be LONG gone.  His two starts had earned Beyers of 105 and 106, the two fastest figures by ANY three-year-old in 2020.  What was also VERY interesting was the comparison of his career start to that of Triple Crown winner Justify.  The latter debuted on February 18th in a MSW sprint and won with a 104 Beyer; Charlatan debuted on February 16th with a winning Beyer of 105.  Justify made his second start in a one mile allowance around two turns on March 11th and won by daylight with a 101 Beyer; Charlatan went a two-turn mile on March 14th with a 106 Beyer as he drew off by 10 1/4 lengths.  The third start for Justify was the winning Kentucky Derby.  Here was Charlatan in the Gr 1 Arkansas Derby on the first Saturday in May.  He broke sharply and I knew that was nearly the end of the race.  But then the fractions came up....a wicked :22 and change for the opening quarter and :46 for the half, then 1:09 for six furlongs.  That's WAY fast for a nine furlong test, but he looked oh-so-comfortable.  On the turn the field began to make their move, but what leaped off the TV screen to me was how hard the other riders were working on their colts and how nearly motionless Martin Garcia was on Charlatan.  Once he'd straightened into the stretch he shook the reins and the margin grew with each and every stride.  Drew off as TONS the best.  Sooooo talented.  He may have won the Kentucky Derby had it been run today was my comment to my son Jeff.

Missed in the Gr 2 Oaklawn Handicap leading us to the second division of the Gr 1 Arkansas Derby.  Baffert's Nadal had drawn into the "tougher" division, at least that was my opinion and one shared on the TVG broadcast as well.  But having won the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes here a month ago in a truly courageous effort that showed he possesses a world of talent, he figured to be the favorite.  But as the betting unfolded he was a lot shorter price than I thought (and the TVG analysts thought) he would be.  About ten minutes out from post time there were two telling comments that were aired as part of the national broadcast.  First, former trainer Simon Bray told the story that he'd seen Nadal work recently and thought it was interesting that that morning the exercise rider had kept Nadal well off the pace set by his workmate and then came flying by him late in the workout.  He said Baffert often did that just in case a talented front runner found himself not on the lead.  AND he shared how in 2015 another Baffert colt had come to the Arkansas Derby and found himself having to rate off the lead before running away.....that was American Pharoah (and we were there that day!  Sure enough, into the first turn the winner of the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby shot to the front from his wide draw in post 11.  Jockey Joel Rosario patiently let him go on with the lead and took Nadal in hand just to his outside.  As they approached the far turn and the leader tried to take off under urging, Rosario barely moved his hands as Nadal cruised by confidently.  Into the lane the field began to make up ground.  The Gr 2 Tampa Bay Derby winner got within a length at the furlong pole but Nadal lengthened his stride and opened up to win as impressively if not more so than Charlatan.  OK, so maybe HE would have won the Kentucky Derby today!

Finally, it was interesting that Churchill Downs and the Kentucky Derby ran a mythical Derby today which was featured on a three hour NBC telecast.  The field of thirteen computer generated runners were all the winners of the Triple Crown.  You could "bet" on the horses with your "bet" becoming a donation to fight the pandemic.  As they came into the stretch it was a thrilling finish as called live by NBC horse racing announcer Larry Colmus and Secretariat - who I'd picked - won in a narrow decision.

Arkansas Derby Day Highlights

Sunday May 3
So the results from Saturday were MUCH more like it.  When I'd gone through the Sunday card I had found it difficult to find many runners who presented a good betting opportunity and in fact on the twelve race card I had six "PASS" races including four of the last five.  The first two races did not present a great money-making opportunity, but it was a fairly solid bet that both favorites were going to win.  In the opener I virtually guaranteed the favorite would be odds-on.  The negatives were obvious for Etana.... she'd already lost seven times, the last four by a combined nearly SIXTY lengths.  OH MY!  Conversely, of the eighty combined starts by the rest of the field there was ONE figure that would beat her last five numbers.  Oh.  The 3yo Super Saver filly was dropping from MSW company all the way down to this $12.5K level for trainer Saffie Joseph with top rider Irad Ortiz on board.  AND the blinkers were coming off, a 30% winning angle.  As "Announcer Pete" called when the field was approaching the far turn, Etana IS a stretch runner, but she was completely and I mean COMPLETELY out of the TV picture.  But as the field began to swing for home here she came.  And she was gobbling up ground at a rate of two or three strides to one.  By the 16th pole it wasn't a question of IF she'd when but simply by how much.  Blew by and drew off handily at odds on.

In the second Candy Crushem looked to be a similar short price.  Many of the same angles were in play.....class dropping, figure edge and Irad Ortiz on board.  Trainer Monica McGooey was off to an 0-for-11 start this spring but that was somewhat offset by the sharp bullet work 'Candy had for today's start.  Ortiz sat patiently off the speed to the turn, inhaled the top two and ran away as much the best to give me my second win in a row.

Missed in the third when my "Upset Special" went from 8/1 to 7/2 at post time and had no finish in a maiden claiming turf route.  Passed the fourth and fifth before we got to the sixth.  I thought Tournesol was deserving of a short price favoritism and she was being bet that way early on.  She came off a very troubled outing, which the analysts talked a lot about and she was dropping in class.  Fortunately for me both on-air analysts really liked the last-out maiden winner.  For me, I kept thinking, "That's right, talk her up" because I'll take a class dropping runner who's run well vs. winners against a last out maiden nearly every time.  As post time approached the odds began to climb for Tournesol.  The race went nearly the way I'd envisioned it.  The crucial moment came midway on the turn when both my filly and the favorite were behind runners and the riders had to decide where to go.  Ortiz (who replaced Tyler Gaffalione early in the card when he called off his mounts for the rest of the day) opted to swing wide and forfeit the lengths while guaranteeing a clear run.  The favorite opted to stay inside.  Tournelsol had momentum and was getting to the leaders, about to run free when a seam opened and the favorite shot through.  At the furlong pole they were on event terms and I was afraid the wide move would be be my downfall but I think the "class" of having experience against winners over a last out maiden was telling late and she edged clear.  The final odds of 4/1 were a generous gift that guaranteed a winning day.  Cashed for $50, whooo hooo.

Missed on the last two, but the story for Sunday was only half about winning three of six and scoring a profit.  While listening to hottie Acacia Courtney and analyst Jason Blewitt go through the card it occurred to me that maybe I should play the Rainbow Pick 6.  But the ticket I thought would likely win was a $900 investment - way too rich for my tastes.  So I decided to look at a slightly toned down version of these same horses in a series of Pick-3 selections over Race 7-8-9, 8-9-10, 9-10-11, and 10-11-12.  This would give me interest in watching all the races today.  The numbers worked out to an investment of $131.  That was not too high, but enough that I wondered how much it was worth it.  I looked up the Pick-3 payoffs for Saturday for those sequences and I'd have made money by hitting just one or two of them, but there had been a 16/1 winner in the mix.  Back and forth and finally I asked Kim.  She suggested that since she was going to be spending money on a Girls' Getaway this weekend it would be a good way to spend some "play money."  And she encouraged me to go for it.  I said I wasn't sure yet - especially because a lot of the horses were NOT my own personal picks.  I considered maybe I'd bet the first Pick 3 and see how it went.  But as we got close to the sequences I decided not to play.  Well, the winner of the first leg of the first race was a 20/1 winner and that would virtually guarantee I'd have made money.  If only I'd gone with the "play the first one."  I was almost hoping not to win the first set even though I had a pick (who didn't win).  By the end of the day, I'd have cashed on ALL four of the tickets.  My stunned reaction :(

I will say I regretted playing in general, especially the first one.  But had I jumped in after that to play the last three I'd have invested $90 to win $50 profit.  Nothing to sneeze at but that's not the return I'm looking for with a multi-race wager.  Of course to have played them all I'd have come out nearly $350 ahead.  And I will also add that when I made the final decision not to play I told myself I would look at this for next week if I'd have profited.  So I'll look forward to this coming weekend with some degree of confidence.  Oh....as for the Rainbow Pick 6 ticket....it paid $15,000.  Event at that, not sure I'd have invested the $900 for that return, still.  You can see the entire sequence of all the Pick 3 races on Sunday in the Gulfstream Highlight video below.

Gulfstream Highlights April 30 - May 3

Spring/Summer: Week 4

April 23 - 25:  Jeff's Birthday Week

After last week's less than inspiring week of selections I was anxious to get going again.  That made waiting through the Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday "Dark Days" much more difficult.  But finally the racing week was upon us.  And I have to say, that maybe it's because of the "Shelter In Place/Stay Home" guidelines we're all under with the pandemic, but with the racing not starting until Thursday I'm "off" all week.  Friday feels like just another day; then Saturday feels like Friday.....  Just a side note of interest, at least to me :)

Thursday April 23

By the time we were minutes away from the first race on Thursday I had handicapped the card for Friday earlier in the day and I mentioned to Kim that I felt like today, Thursday, was the better of the two cards and that I felt like I had a couple of legitimate Pick-3 opportunities that would provide a nice profit if I could any of them (or the Daily Doubles I had in mind).  The race favorite, Lashka was my choice and she looked legitimate off of a very troubled last start.  All she needed was a good set-up.  In my analysis I mentioned she shouldn't be too far back because my second choice was a legitimate favorite and probably the one to catch.  Prophetic - just that way and I didn't catch her.  In the fourth race it was a 2-lifetime one-turn mile and there wasn't anyone who was running for a first time tag or first time in nw2L.  Usually that results in a "PASS" for the race.  But it was hard to look past the statistics for trainer Victor Barboza who had claimed Paynter Fest last time out.  He is winning at an unbelievable 55% (from 38 starters) first off the claim.  Paynther Fest's best-of-the-rest second two back behind a runaway winner (who'd be 1/5 here) was more than good enough to win in spite of the fact that the horse was moving UP in class.  Right to the front and never looked back as a 9/5 people's choice.

Cashed for almost $30 and I was alive in both the Daily Double and the Pick-3.  I had two horses in the fifth, including my WIN bet who was Ron Nicoletti's BEST of the day.  Valdolobo pressed the pace to the stretch and then nothing.  I left out the 5/2 second choice who won for fun.  Dead in both the P3 and DD.  Won the 6th with my BEST of the WEEK - even though I knew that Untitled would not pay anything, and I wasn't going to pad my bankroll, he still was worthy of that top wager.  This was a first level allowance for Florida-breds going a one-turn mile.  In Untitled's debut he earned a head-spinning 98 Beyer when winning by the length of the stretch.  The public was all over him when he ran next in the Grade 3 Swale, but he bounced as most first-time out maiden winners do off a huge effort like that.  Next time out he was in a Tampa allowance facing off with Todd Pletcher's highly regarded Gouverner Morris.  He gave that one all he could handle (finishing a best-of-the-rest-second) and then 'Morris came back to be third in the Gr 1 Florida Derby.  Untitled then shipped to New York to run in the one-turn mile Grade 3 Gotham.  Made a big move but couldn't keep up with the favorite and again was a best-of-the-rest 2nd.  Off two graded stakes and a race that easily COULD have been a graded event - all in OPEN company - he just looked like an easy-peasy-pie winner.  And he was.  TONS the best.

Was 2/5 at one point...1/5 at post time, but all the late money was on him and he only paid $2.20.  Still, as I've often said, while I'll never turn down making money, it's all about being right and betting with the degree of confidence I have in the selection.  Fourth at a solid 6/1 in the 7th I came right back to score in the eighth.  Money Never Sleeps in a starter optional claiming event for 3yo going seven furlongs.  You next to never see a runner claimed from a powerful stable - like Todd Pletcher in this case - and then MOVE UP in his subsequent races.  But trainer Terri Pompay had done this with 'Money.  First off the claim she nearly matched her career best when breaking her maiden and then improved her number again when a best-of-the-rest third behind two fillies that were daylight clear of everyone else in an allowance event.  Down into this starter event she looked best.  Sat patiently behind four rivals vying on the front end to the top of the stretch, then swung into the clear.  Ran by everyone like they were tied to the rail and scored for fun as the 8/5 favorite.

The payoff resulted in nearly $30 into the account as I had my third winner on the day.  The final bet of the day came in the featured ninth, a second level allowance going nine furlongs on the turf.  As I said in my analysis, ".... this may sound obvious, but it's either Temple in here or it's not ...."  Since claimed by Michael Maker he'd run five straight races in the mid-to-low 90s, all of which would probably win here.  The problem was that while he was consistent, he'd not shown any improvement.  As the field turned for home, SEVEN of them were bunched with jockey Luis Saez opting to try and wait for room along the rail.  Looked like a bad idea until the furlong pole when there was J-U-S-T enough room to get through and Temple burst through to win going away.  I'd only bet the minimum, but it was good enough to collect over $10 and give me four wins from just seven selections.  I LIKE these kind of days at the races :)

Friday April 24
The day started out with ominous foreshadowing as I thought the first race was a wide-open maiden claiming event going two turns on the turf.  I mentioned that if I were betting, and I was not, I'd like Mr. Tito on the rail.  Yes, you guessed it.  He won.  And not at the 5/1 price he was in the Form but at 10/1 odds.  Sigh.....  I told myself I'd be doubly upset if I didn't play the early double because I had the 4/5 favorite in the second.  But he was no threat when a runner-up to the 5/1 third choice.  Passed the third and then I had a Daily Double going in the fourth and fifth.  Both were turf sprints and even though both my top choices would probably be odds-on, it was like "giving away money" by hooking them together.  The fourth was a maiden claiming event and I'm Prayingforthat was the most obvious choice, first because of all the reasons the others would NOT win.  Only five numbers earned by the combined 47 starts of her eight rivals would compete with all three of her career numbers and NONE of those were likely to be earned today.  And her WORST figure was the only number they would beat if they ran to their best.  In her dirt debut she'd run well enough, but then she dropped in class a notch and sprinted on the turf today with a best-of-the-rest 2nd.  Tried two turns last time out and was steadied in Maiden Special company.  Back in for a tag and to sprinting she was the DRF BEST Bet.  Right to the front and never, ever in doubt.

The final odds of 3/5 netted me nearly $20 for a double investment.  In the second half of the double I had a triple investment WIN wager on winning machine Tiger Blood.  At first glance I thought this might be a good spot to go against this guy who was 8-for-9 at the distance.  Why?  Because all his other scores had come in starter optional claiming and this was a second level allowance - much tougher competition.  But when you scanned through the field NONE of these had had any success at this level.  OK, that levels out that negative.  Since last July he'd run only two races that gave the rest of the field any hope.  One was last July at Kentucky Downs when he earned an 86 Beyer.  And that was over their unique undulating course, and more importantly going 6 1/2 furlongs - Tiger Blood rules at FIVE furlongs.  The only other figure, his worst on the page came when the connections experimented with a two-turn route in a starter stakes.  Toss that.  You could question if he would be able to get to the front and maybe if outsprinted early from his inside draw he'd have a difficult time getting the trip; if he DID get to the front he might have to go too fast.  But in the end he was simply too good for these I thought.  He burst out of the gate under regular rider Edgard Zayas and blistered the opening fractions in a torrid :21.1 and :43.3.  Too fast?  Maybe, but when the closers came he was all heart and held them off comfortably.

AND The Daily Double

The triple investment returned nearly $25 for my second winner on the day.  And with the big $5 Daily Double play I'd converted two prohibitive 3/5 favorites into a 2/1 WIN bet.  Cashed for over $16 on that bet.  NICE.  In the eighth I employed THE most important rule in handicapping.....there ARE NO RULES!  That applied here because the adage is, "never bet a horse - especially at a short price - to do something for the first time (or that they've never done before" and that was exactly what was going on with my top choice, Eve of War from the Todd Pletcher barn.  She debuted in a six furlong dirt sprint and had wired the field in a sensational performance as the 1-2 favorite (yes, I had her that day).  But she'd disappointed in the next when completely compromised at the start.  Now she was going two turns on the turf.  Add in that Pletcher was a cold 5-for-41 at the Spring/Summer meet to date.  But she was bred up and down for two turns and the turf and I thought if she ran anything close to her debut she was the winner.  Right to the front and in complete control to the top of the lane when the second choice made a bold bid and got nearly on even terms.  They dueled for about a sixteenth of a mile, but in the final two hundred yards Eve of War drew clear.  WHOOO HOOO I've got my third winner on the day.

Following this race I had two "PASS" events in a row so Kim and I had timed it out where we could go on our "date night" to pick up our steak dinner from Outback.  We returned home and "dined" out on the pool deck with the waterfront view......

I've found it interesting that over the past month when ever I've posted something about Kim and I and how we are doing with the "Stay At Home" situation that we get SOOOO many social media hits.  You'll note above that we had fifty-five "likes" and five comments.  Trust me, for one of my Facebook posts, that's a lot.  Missed with the 3/2 favorite who went too fast going two turns in the ninth before the finale.  And in here it was my UPSET SPECIAL for the day.  And as we finished dinner I was able to watch this race live.  This was another five furlong turf sprint and it was a cheap maiden claiming event.  Several weeks ago there was a similar dirt sprint like this where no one looked worth a wager but there was a first time starter from the Gilberto Zerpa barn and he wins at nearly 50% with these.  He did that day and I had it at a $15+ payoff.  So with no one standing out today I made Kobe Fifty Two at 12/1 in the program my top choice.  As I turned on the live feed we were about five minutes from post time and he'd been bet down all the way to 3/1.  I just had this feeling that I KNEW he'd win in wire fashion under the "Minister of Speed," jockey Emisael Jaramillo and with the betting action I was oh-so-tempted to up the bet.  But my conservative side said, "Look, we've already got three wins, and a daily double....let's not press the issue."  Woulda, coulda, shoulda.  Right to the front and coasted EASILY.  Paid $9.20 so I still collected nearly $25 on the minimum bet, but it could have been nearly $50 with simply doubling the bet.  Oh well, have to be content with a 4-for-6 day at the races AND cashing a $5 COLD Daily Double play, right?

Saturday April 25 - Happy Birthday Jeff

Yes, the oldest son turns the page on another year and now I have a son who's nearly 40 years old.  How did THAT happen?  I still think I'm "growing up" and attractive to the 18-20 year-old hotties I see from time to time!  LOL.  So to be honest, overall Saturday wasn't a "bad" day, but it was far from coming close to the way the week had started out.  I did cash in on a Pick-3 and a Daily Double on the day, but my price horse didn't win in any of those events so I was happy to "get out" with a flat bet profit for the double, multi-race wagers.  I also played the Oaklawn card where there were three oh-so-obvious "winners."  But for the day I had only one cashed ticket - luckily it was the "BEST" of the day and at the "best" price of all the added investment wagers.  After passing both the first two at Gulfstream I liked Lanse Mitan enough in the third to not only make him the kick-off leg of the Pick 3 but to bet him to win straight up, albeit with the minimum.  He was the DRF Best, but I've learned that when Mike Welsch says that, it really doesn't add a lot of confidence to the selection.  He wins far, FAR less of his BEST than I do, just sayin'.  It looked to be him after he'd been second best at Tampa behind a runner who'd come right back to win, and that 2nd was in for a higher tag.  His main rival was just inside him at 9/2 on the board.  I used them both in the Pick-3 wager.  That one took the lead at 7/2 with my WIN wager tracking him.  Dueled into the lane and I opened up and edged clear while the other faded to third.  Collected a little over $10 on the favorite, but I am alive in the Pick-3.

In the second leg jockey Irad Ortiz was making his return to the saddle after taking more than a month off.  He was on the likely favorite, who I included in the Pick-3, but I preferred Peacock Kitten who was 3/1 at post time.  As the field spun out of the turn Peacock Kitten was looming dangerously right behind The Mighty Judge, Ortiz's horse.  That one came to the leader and I looked to split them.  But the inside horse veered out close to 'The Judge and I had to briefly steady.  Drifted back towards the rail and I was urged into the seam only to be cut off again.  Not saying I would have won but I certainly didn't get a fair chance to win.  But, I'll take staying alive in the Pick-3.  And he'd been one of two horses I played in a 2-by-3 Daily Double.  In the fifth I liked first time starter Chasing Anna who was 6/1 in the program.  Right to the front at 5/1 going 7f in MSW company but the splits (:22.1 and especially :44.4 for the opening half mile) were too quick.  Gave way late and all hope of a pricey return on the two multi-race bets went out the window.  In the final 16th of the race I was assured of cashing both as the two runners who'd separated themselves were both mine, on both tickets.  BUT they were the 8/5 favorite and 9/5 second favorite.  At least it was the latter.  While I'd like to have made $50 or more, still I'd been entertained, won three in a row and cashed three tickets to start the day in Hallandale.  Can't really complain about that, right?

In the sixth, and oh how I wish I'd used THIS horse as the key for the multi-race wagers, but I didn't.  My plan had been, with rain in the forecast to make the "Main Track Only" as a PRIME TIME win bet and a single in a Pick-3 sequence and Daily Double.  But the races stayed on the turf and so I had considered an alternative ticket using the top three turf picks but going 4-by-3-by-3 was going to run me almost $20 for a small Pick 3 or Daily Double and I just didn't think it was worth the investment.  Had I played the double in races 5-6 for a dollar it would have cost me $12 and I would have collected $14.80; if I'd played the $.50 Pick-3 it would have cost $24 and would have paid $28 with the double in those two races costing $9 to get $22....but as it turned out a straight up win bet was the best way to go.  The sixth was on the turf going five furlongs for entry level allowance horses.  Catharsis lured Irad Ortiz and was 6-for-16 at the distance and 5-for-12 locally.  That really appealed to me.  AND in this Allowance-Optional Claiming event she'd already won this condition THREE times.  She sat right off the leader to the stretch, asked for run and ran by to win by daylight.  She went off a lucrative 9/2 and paid $11.60.  With my double investment I collected nearly $60.  Much lower risk for a much better return on investment.  Well played Mr. Mark.

Missed the seventh when the even money favorite was trapped behind horses and couldn't get out until too late and then a Pletcher 4/5 favorite was a show nothing 7th in the 8th for me.  I don't mind losing, it's part of the game, but I DO mind when my horse doesn't run and/or isn't ridden the way I think he should be.  Such was the case in the 9th, the featured Unbridled Stakes for 3yo.  Relentless Dancer had always run his best on the front end and he looked like the lone speed.  But jockey Chris Landeros tried to track the speed....the winner was the favorite, a Pletcher odds-on runner.  Sigh....so he DOES NOT win with the short priced fav when I'm on and DOES WIN when I'm not.  Thanks Todd.  Passed the 10th and then I was just amazed when graded stakes winner Global Campaign was allowed to go off at 5/2 odds in a conditioned allowance.  That was because (a) he was coming off a layoff and facing older for the first time, but also (b) because a Pletcher colt was made the short priced favorite.  I'd had Soldado in both his wins so far this year.  But prior to his last, which was a gutsy performance, the connections had said they thought he was a stakes kind of runner.  Instead of going in a stakes, here he was in an allowance AND stretching to seven furlongs.  I liked neither part of that move.  Sure enough he was a badly beaten sixth.  Meanwhile, Global Campaign looked to take his time before finding his running shoes, but when put into the clear some six wide in the stretch he ran down the cavalry charge of runners who'd fanned across the track.

My triple investment on the "best" of the day at Gulfstream led to a nearly $60 payoff and made my day, at Gulfstream at least, a winning one. Not so much at Oaklawn.  I was taken by a photo that I saw online of the empty stands at Oaklawn and so I pulled up a picture I'd taken on Arkansas Derby Day from nearly the same spot......

Sad, but at least there IS racing.  I had two seconds, a third and a 4th before the first of the stakes races.  In the Bachelor Stakes Bob Baffert sent out Gr 1 winning Eight Rings who just looked way, WAY too good for these.  But on the turn when making "the move" he just flattened out to be fifth.  In the featured Carousel Stakes, a six furlong sprint for older fillies and mares I KNEW I had the right one in Mia Mischief.  And in spite of her being a Grade 1 winner and a "Horse for the Course" at Oaklawn I thought I'd get at least a "fair" price.  The crowd would almost certainly favor So Cal shipper and multiple Gr 1 winner Bellafina.  But what I'd learned the hard way, when she'd lost TWICE for me is that she's an outstanding sprinter or even router in Southern California, especially Santa Anita.  But in every start outside of California not only didn't she win, but she didn't run well.  Add in that today she was on the rail and historically wasn't the sharpest of breakers.  Sure enough, she broke slowly and was immediately shuffled back.  Not so with Mia Mischief who broke from the outside and quickly was stalking the pace of the very quick Amy's Challenge.  Into the lane Mia Mischief collared her and then put on a real display of power and she ran away as tons the best.

The 3/2 post time odds allowed my prime time bet to collect $50 and turn the 0-for day at Oaklawn into a reasonable loss and made the day overall a very minimal loss while collecting four more wins.

Sunday April 26

In anticipation of the rains and with the small rain showers on Saturday the first two turf races were off on Sunday.  But that's ok because I'd handicapped for both scenarios.  And two great stories top the week off.  In between the first and last wagers of the day my runners simply didn't fire.  No complaint today on the rides, they did exactly what I expected and when asked to finish they didn't so it goes in racing.  But here were the two races that carried the day to a profitable end of the week.....  In the opener - before the rains hit - it was scheduled to be five furlongs on the grass.  I had made Go Gone Gone the pick if moved to the dirt because his past performances showed not one, not two, but three main track wins.  He was 8/1 in the program for turf, figured much lower on the dirt.  But when the betting was only ten minutes from post he was still 8/1.  What the?  So before making the bet I waited to see what hottie Acacia Courtney and sidekick Jason Blewitt would say about the opener.  As they came on air and their picks were under their video pictures I noted BOTH liked the #7 who was not in my analysis anywhere to be found AND he was the betting favorite.  I waited for Blewitt to finish his analysis (while he's a "good" handicapper and often makes valid points, in my opinion he's rarely got a real gem of an insight and pretty much says whats in the past performances with his opinion sprinkled in).  But it was Courtney that I wanted to hear - she typically likes the same horse I do, but what appeals to me (besides her strikingly good looks) is that she often reads between the lines and sees things I don't.  In this case she pointed out that the favorite "obviously" had the best dirt form in the race AND looked to be the lone speed.  Wait, that's why I liked Go Gone Gone.  So I opened up the past performances and sure enough, while I had four wins on dirt, the favorite had ELEVEN.  Maybe Acacia and the crowd are on to something.  Change the bet.  I considered it and looked at the probable payoffs in the early double - everyone liked the 7 in here also.  Then the decision came to me clearly....NO, I handicapped the race, I looked at it as if moved to the dirt and Go Gone Gone IS a likely winner.  Besides, I reasoned.  What IF my horse won, at a nice price and I'd HAD it and let him go.  Flashbacks to a couple weeks ago when I had a Chad Brown horse who went off at 9/1, he was the top pick with a double investment and I let the crowd and Acacia & Jason talk me off it - well, ok, I take responsibility for the decision - but still flashbacks big time.  I stuck with my pick.  Right out of the gate the #7 was on the lead.  But immediately I was on his hip.  On the turn I glided by without being asked and when the favorite tried to re-rally my horse would have none of it and I pulled clear.  I immediately said out loud, "I am SO SMART!" which drew the attention of my wife who I told the story to s the $11.60 mutual flashed on the screen and I cashed for almost $60.  YAY ME!

The day ended with two great calls on my part.  First, the last race of the day was scheduled for the turf but the deluge of rain had washed it off.  Still my pick was in the race.  Play or not to play.  I considered it and then thought, nope....in this race I didn't like anyone if it wasn't on the turf and I wasn't going to let the "action" lure me in.  He was well beaten - another good call by me.  The ninth race was labeled my UPSET SPECIAL and I thought I was going to really make some money here.  The original field of twelve were scheduled to go a mile and a sixteenth on the turf and as I looked down the past performances it was a "like DUH" epiphany - no one, and I mean NO ONE wanted the lead in here, except my pick, Roddick who was a remarkable 20/1 in the program.  AND he had the "Minister of Speed" Emisael Jaramillo on board.  He wires this field for fun I thought.  So what if it comes off the turf?  STILL, no one wants the front AND we get the added benefit that a dirt race at this distance uses the first finish line, which means a front runner has a shorter distance to "hold on" to the wire.  I knew on the dirt there would be scratches and I wouldn't get 20/1, but most assuredly I'd get 10/1 or so.  Sure enough the field was whittled down to just a half dozen and as I looked at the odds and the multi-race payoffs I was surprised that the #12 was being so heavily bet.  So I opened up my Racing Form.  He'd run on the dirt AND nearly all his Beyer figures were better than Roddick's AND he had hot-riding Irad Ortiz on board.  Hmmmm.  Am I wrong?  I looked at the two of them, back and forth.  Finally the decision.....YES, the favorite had the better speed figures, BUT most recently his numbers were not quite as good as his best races and also, IF Roddick got loose on the lead he could very easily improve his speed figure.  Add in that the favorite would be closing and I thought run out of time with the short stretch and I was all in on my bet.  Roddick was on the board around 6/1 which was fair when the alluring Acacia came on air.  She picked....RODDICK.  Oh no Acacia!  I wasn't surprised she picked him but she then proceeded to tell everyone listening WHY he would win.  And Jason Blewitt had him second.  The odds went to 5/1, then 9/2 then 4/1, then 7/2 and as they walked into the gate he was the 5/2 second choice.  WOW. From 20/1 - which would mean a $200 payoff (ok, unrealistic, but still a fella can dream right?) to a probably $35 payoff.  Well, better than 4/5.  And the gates sprung open.  Right to the front, on cruise control until they were approaching the far turn.  Then Irad Ortiz demonstrated why he IS one of the best in the game.  He too had obviously studied the form so he began what should have been a stretch rally on the turn.  Midway on the turn he was on near even terms and the two of them began to duel.  The favorite had all the momentum as they turned into the lane and I thought it was over.  But Jaramillo held tight to the rail and cut the corner expertly.  So while the favorite floated a length wider he lost about 3/4 of a length.  OK, we have a chance!  Quickly Ortiz pushed for more and they were on even terms, shoulder to shoulder, one head up and one head down.  It would come down to who wanted it more and/or a head bob.  They hit the wire together....PHOTO finish.  I called Kim over to watch the slow motion replay and didn't tell her which was mine....she said, "I think the inside horse," YES - I replied that's what I think, that's me!  Sure enough, "Ladies and Gentlemen the result of the photograph shows #10 Roddick the winner of Race 9" called out Announcer Pete.  And the best part of the story......soon after they left the gate the late money was added into the win pool and somehow - because EVERYONE pounded the favorite - Roddick floated up from 5/2 to 4/1 odds.  Now THAT'S more like it.  The winning mutual of $10 resulted in a $50 payoff and I'm a winner for the day.

For the week I won nearly 40% and added almost $70 to my profitable bankroll while putting up a big ROI for the week on every $2 invested.  Gotta love the races!