April 27 - May 1

Opening Weekend at Churchill Downs

Wednesday April 27

Today kicked off Opening Weekend at Churchill Downs and the final days of the Spring Meet at Keeneland.  I had handicapped the Wednesday card at Keeneland where there was anticipation of some rain, but the turf races remained on the grass.  As the first went to post there were some sprinkles, but by the end of the day it was raining pretty heavily.  In the opener the top two program favorites seemed the most likely win candidates, but both were untrustworthy.  Still they faced a pretty weak field - I passed and they ran 1-2 at 8/5 and 3/2.  In the second I went with Wesley Ward's 2yo Spellker.  It's been my experience that Ward is ultra-effective with 2yo first time starters here, but when they come back they are not nearly as good a bet.  But in this case I backed her because she'd been the victim of unusual circumstances in her debut.  She was long gone in that race and the rider was ultra confident in mid-stretch in spite of a closer under Javier Castellano coming.  He misjudged that one and lost while the winner set a track record.  With a better ride and NOT facing such an impressive run she seemed a certain bounce-back winner.  I upped the bet when the most dangerous threat scratched.  Right to the front and in complete control until on the turn the second choice ran right by her!  She was a best-of-the-rest second, again the victim to a track-record setting run!  What are the odds?  In the third I thought that I had an upset candidate when I handicapped the race as it seemed to me that Miss Cobblestone would be the short-priced favorite.  I went instead with Donita's Ruler who was the LONE speed of the race.  But when I typed up my selection sheet she was the 7/5 second choice and left the gate at 4/5.  I am a frequent critic of Julian Leparoux, but he rides very well at Keeneland (and to be fair I DO give him credit for that).  This was a clever ride as he must have known he had the lone speed, but he also knew that his filly was stretching to seven furlongs so he needed something for the stretch.  As they came out of the gate he let her gradually move to the front and as they passed the opening quarter marker she was narrowly in front, but had not been asked for any speed.  She gradually eased clear of the field so that as they clicked off the opening half in :45 and change she was now clear by daylight and had yet to run.  When he let her go on the turn she drew off with authority!  Cashed for nearly $30 on my triple investment!  WHOOO HOOO!  

In the 4th Price Too High was a Ward first time starting two-year-old.  It also marked the first ride for Joel Rosario since he'd been injured late in the Gulfstream meet.  Everyone had this filly on top and she was 4/5 at post time.  Whether it was the filly or a rusty Rosario we'll never know but when the gates sprung open Price Too High was still in the gate and dead last.  A belated run earned a fourth place check but she was never a threat.  Passed the fifth.  In the sixth we were on the soft turf course and I liked two horses - Heath from the Bill Mott barn who was the likely favorite and Kitzy's Rocket who was 6/1 in the program.  I labeled that one the UPSET SPECIAL of the day.  She came into the race with a best-of-79 bullet work and that was a good tip for me.  But when I opened the Keeneland web page I was surprised to see that both Mike Battaglia and Katy Gensler had this one on top.  Sure enough as they turned for home it was the two of them dueling to wire.  The top one got the best of my horse in the final 100 yards and I was second best.  In my final selection of the day it was the featured nw3 allowance sprint and I liked No Hiding Place who again combined Rosario and Ward, but this time it was on an older runner.  I projected him to get a pressing trip from the outside and indeed he was three wide waiting to pounce around the turn when Rosario asked for him to sprint to the wire.  He did and drew off late to give me my second winner and end the day with a 40% average on the opening day of the extended weekend.

Thursday April 28th

Well, the early disappointment of the day "turned the frowns upside down" as they say, and it proved yet again that one of the great things about being a racing fan is that you simply never know when you are going to hit that winner that makes your day.  As the day opened I was a little concerned about what the weather would be like in Lexington and how it would affect my selections and the racing surfaces.  But the track was listed as "muddy" and the turf "soft" so we were OK.  Then as I was working on some paperwork I heard the scratches, ".....in the 5th race scratch Red Lodge...." - OH NO!  She was my BET of the Day, a Wes Ward 2yo filly who I was certain would romp today.  :(  I thought to myself, just play it out, there's racing tomorrow and through the weekend, today's just not meant to be "the day."  In the opener I went with Midnight Dance in a nine furlong maiden claiming event for 3yo and up.  Two factors pointed this one out - first, owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey point to the Keeneland spring and fall meets as their personal playgrounds and covet the top owner position.  So when they send out a runner here, you know they are serious.  They have made a real push over the last week of racing days and have now gained the top spot with only a couple of days left.  So the fact that Midnight Dance will run in the iconic red and white silks was a huge plus.  The other factor had two parts to it - first, the jockeys and trainers of the others in here were weak, low percentage performers; but Midnight Dance featured Javier Castellano riding for Michael Maker.  They are winning, at Keeneland, at an insane 52% rate!  Put all this together and you know this has to be the favorite.  But no....instead the crowd made my second choice Dynamo Ridge the 9/5 favorite.  If you only looked at the horse, you could buy that as he was coming off a career best finish when second going two turns over this track.  BUT.....the trainer was winless at the meet and the rider (a usually top notch James Graham) was a meager 1-for-57 here this spring.  You just cannot put those numbers up against the angles of Midnight Dance and make a case - in my opinion.  Castellano took Midnight Dance right to the front and was GONE!  And the best part, he was a juicy 5/2 on the board so I cashed for nearly $20 on a minimum play to start the day! 

I passed both the 2nd and third (and was right in my analysis that the likely winners seemed to have "issues" as they both lost as the favorite to horses that didn't figure to beat them).  In the 4th I thought I had a nice price play.  A MSW for 3yo runners going the marathon distance of a mile and a half on the turf.  I went with American Cowgirl who had been fourth in back-to-back efforts.  And the winner of the most recent had returned to win a $100K stakes race last weekend.  Julian Leparoux, who I don't particularly trust elsewhere, but have to admit he rides superbly here, was the new rider.  Left the gate at 5/1 and was sitting right off the leaders waiting to move as they turned for home.  Leparoux said "Let's Go!" and the colt stopped, completely stopped fading to 10th.  In the 6th it was another Ramsey runner, Sayler's Creek, who under most circumstances I would have passed on.  He was more effective on turf but today was dropping and running on the main track.  But with it being the Ramseys, and with Castellano riding for Maker I made him the bet.  Sent off at even money he didn't lift his hooves and was a distant 6th.  The feature race today was the eighth and it was a Maiden Special for two-year-olds.  Analyst Mike Battaglia had told the crowd in the pre-race show that one of the highlights every spring of the Keeneland meet are the two-year-olds and he listed several past juvenile winners who'd gone on to be multiple graded stakes winners, including Breeders' Cup champion Judy the Beauty, and that for this reason today's feature would spotlight the "babies."  Yes, there was a Wesley Ward runner, Lightning Dove.  But there were three others in here that looked to have real talent as well.  Still, just like at Gulfstream you are the smart handicapper to go with the Pletcher 3yo maidens, here your best bet is to stick with the Ward 2yo runners.  I doubled the bet on 'Dove.  Jockey Joel Rosario shot her right to the front and she won in hand!  Considering she was Ward-trained I thought the 4/5 price was more than fair and I cashed for nearly $20. 

In the finale we were going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf.  It was a second level allowance event and I thought the race looked wide open.  The favorite looked to be War Envoy who had earned the most money and had run two strong races, but in his most recent he was a distant third in a stakes race, in Barbados.  In Barbados?  That can't be a strong group of runners.  So I looked elsewhere for a price.  Found him in Prince Gagarin.  The Prince was listed at 12/1 making him appealing in this spot and then two angles cemented the play.  First, he was going to get Keeneland specialist Julian Leparoux, and second, if you looked down his pp's you noted that he'd run against Highland Reel and Curvy in his European races.  The former had won the Grade 1 Secretariat on Million Day (as my top choice!) last summer and the latter had won the Grade 1 E.P. Taylor at Woodbine last fall (as my BEST BET when we were on our "Fall Leaves Cruise!).  So he had back class, a top rider, and was a price.  Leparoux got him into a good stalking spot behind a double-digit longshot leader into the far turn then made his move.  He was grinding away and caught the leader inside the furlong pole and edged clear late for my third win!  And at a very healthy 5/1!  The $12.00 payoff meant I'd cash for an even $30 and sealed a 60% winning day with a profit that doubled my investment and then some on the day!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!

Friday April 29th
The good news about the Friday racing was that I added two more wins to my week's totals and one of them was my "BEST of the Day" in Woodbine's eighth.  The bad news was that I had SIX selections run second or third resulting in a financial loss for the bottom line.  Little Cherie disappointed at 3/5 in Keeneland's opener followed by Miss Tatey Cat running third at 3/2 at Woodbine.  Missed at Belmont on their opening day card in the third with Shadow Rider - fourth, the only off-the-board-finish of any selections.  I scored at Keeneland in their 4th, a mile and a half on the turf for three-year-olds in MSW company with Ken & Sarah Ramsey's Billy's Kitten.  Originally part of a strong entry the other half scratched and Billy went off as the short-priced 1/2 favorite.  Tracked the leaders to the turn and then blew by in the lane to score with my double investment. 

I ran third in back-to-back races at Woodbine and Belmont before my BET of the DAY in Woodbine's 8th and feature.  This was an entry level allowance going a mile and a sixteenth, and to me Nipigon looked every bit the 6/5 program favorite.  DRF analyst Ron Gierkink remarked in his analysis that Nipigon, "....lays over this field...." with the only drawback being that he had only two races since he last ran here in November 2014.  But that best-of-75 bullet work convinced me he was rady to roll here and any of his last three Beyer figures - albeit they were from non-recent races - would win this for fun.  He was also Jim Bannon's BEST of the day.  Tracked the leaders to the turn, moved handily and collared the leader turning for home.  While you would say they "dueled" through the stretch, it was clear that Nipigon's rider wasn't asking for his absolute best and he edged clear in the final sixteenth as simply too good for this field.  He didn't pay a lot, but I collected nearly $30 on my final winner of the day. 

In Belmont's feature, the Affirmed Success, my pick Logi's Vengence lost all chance at 2/1 when blocked through most of the stretch - second under the wire.  And in Keeneland's closing day feature, the Grade 3 Bewitch going 1 1/2 miles on the turf Orlanda wired the field under Julian Leparoux while my upset pick, Songoficeandfire (8/1 in the program, but bet down to 5/2 at post time) moved boldly on the turn but flattened out to be third under the line.

Saturday April 30

As a racing fan you love days like today - the first race on my sheet had a post time of 12:35 pm and the last race went off at 11:10 pm!  I had arranged to meet my racing buddy Jim Anderson at the track today and while that has always made the day more enjoyable, he has recently become much more interested in handicapping and following the races.  Today he had his own selection sheet and last night he emailed me a comparison of where we had selections in the same race.  Many of those events saw us land on the same top pick, but there were several where we differed.  I responded that I was MOST looking forward to not only sharing the day's experiences with him but comparing thoughts about the races.  It was a great day with Jim as we spent nearly the entire day talking about racing and handicapping.  And at the end of the day we had cashed tickets on nearly thirty (yes, 30) races - granted he's a place & show player at this point, but still, we had a lot of smiles throughout the day.  Here's how it played out.........

Right off the bat I was in the win column with the opener at Tampa.  Dickets looked to be the short priced favorite.  He'd run in tough New York races before shipping down to Tampa to break his maiden and then come right back in 2-lifetime company for a $16K tag.  He ran back in a 3L $16K race and was beaten only a length.  Next was a turf experiment, again but this was for $25K 3L runners and he was a sharp second.  Today he was back on the main track and plunging to the $8K level for three-lifetime horses.  He collared the leader turning for home, dueled to inside the 16th pole and then edged clear to win at even money.  Our first bet locally was on the turf and Lay It Down looked to be the best in the field.  He stalked the pace to the stretch, dueled and just missed, 2nd - the first of MANY close but no cigar finishes on the day!  I had handicapped TEN different tracks for the races today, and while the bulk of my selections came from the "big" tracks I also had a few plays at the next level, one of which came in the 2nd at Parx.  Extrasexyexotkminx had been a best-of-the-rest 2nd in her last, a maiden special, where the winner had drawn off by over fourteen lengths.  She looked much the best here.  AND, the barn added blinkers, a 43% win angle!  She went right to the front and won by a pole without ever being asked!  Less than fifteen minutes later we were checking out the monitor broadcasting from Toronto and the second from Woodbine.  Occasional View was my top choice in this six furlong dash for trainer Mark Fournier.  He has SIX different angles in Jim Mazur's Woodbine 40% Club listing, the most important of which for today was that when top rider Eurico DaSilva is on board he wins at an astounding 71% clip.  DaSilva had Occasional View stalking the pace into the lane then let her run and she responded by drawing off for my third win in my first four selections.

And the best part about this one, she'd gone off at a juicy 5/2 price and I'd tripled the bet - I'd cash for over $50!  I had two selections from upstate New York at small Finger Lakes, but when I tried to make the bet, Gulfstream wasn't taking bets from there.  No worries, I opened my Xpressbet app on my phone and made both the bets - and they were streaming live on another horseracing app I have so I was able to watch.  The first, Rumplesteelskin was last at a huge 30/1.  At Parx I liked Californnia Wildcat who was the only runner who'd not tried 2-lifetime company previously, but he was well out of the money when 6th at 5/2 odds.  Next was a claiming sprint on the turf at Laurel.  I liked Came Back who was a multiple winner on the course and had traveled this six furlong distance previously.  It was unusual that many of his rivals in here had not run on the grass, and most that had were still looking for their first turf win.  He pressed the pace through the turn, swung out three wide and edged clear into the lane.  But the rail runner would not go away.  Looked like he'd be a narrow winner, but at the furlong marker the rail runner had come back and now had a head in front!  REALLY???!!!  But Came Back did just that and came back, fighting to the regain the lead.  Inside the 16th pole he was again on even terms and the two of them went at it.  It was one of the most exciting stretch runs of the day and as they flashed by the wire it was way, WAY too close to tell.  But as I said to Jim, I think we lost that one, but the angle of the camera was not the best.  Didn't help that the camera immediately flashed to the #2 (the other horse) as they jogged around the turn.  Then came the slow motion replay.  And at the wire, again, it seemed like we were not the winner.  Pretty certain we were second.  But then the camera switched to the #7 (Came Back)......hold on a tic, that's a good sign.  They showed the slow motion again and I was really hesitant to believe we'd won, then the official photo came up.........

WHOOOO HOOOOO!  Even though he was just 5/2 and it was a minimum bet, it was one of the most thrilling and rewarding victories on the afternoon!  Of course Jim had no hear-pounding reaction because he'd bet Came Back to show :)  Unlike a couple of weeks ago when I came out to Gulfstream and I only had two live selections I had nearly half a dozen today, but my choice in the 3rd scratched.  The fourth at Woodbine saw Kelly Bird press the lead to the stretch as the 6/5 favorite before weakening to finish third.  My longest skid of the day continued when Gemini One was second at Finger Lakes behind a 77/1 winner!  WOW.  Cheering For Al was 4th at 5/1 at Belmont; Strike Right Now was the 8/5 favorite at Woodbine, and after a wide trip moved to an open lead into the stretch before being outfinished - 2nd.  Know Your Customer was a fading 6th at Gulfstream and Wicked Freud was a disappointing 4th at 2/1 while going 4-wide over the Belmont turf.

April 27-30 Highlights - Part 1

The sixth at Woodbine was a non-winners of 1 allowance going six and a half furlongs.  I'd noticed when Woodbine first opened that speed had dominated through the opening weeks over the new Tapeta surface.  But to be fair, nearly all the races were super-sprints in distance of five furlongs and five and a half furlongs.  Now that the races were stretching to longer distances and going two turns as well I'd noticed the track was playing much more fairly, and if anything was favoring pressing runners.  In this spot I liked Songs and Laughter who was the 9/5 program choice.  Two weeks ago I had won with Conquest Calvary who was coming off a layoff and had looked like either a MUCH the best runner on talent alone, or a money burner after running second in four races.  At the top of the stretch that day he'd been on even terms with Songs and Laughter, but Calvary WAS much the best as he drew off to score while Songs and Laughter was a best-of-the-rest runner-up.  Today it was a "hidden" drop in class because that race had been a non-conditioned allowance, where runners with more wins could get in.  Today you could not have won ANY allowance races to enter.  Eurico DaSilva should get a good trip right behind the early leaders I thought.  But Songs and Laughter broke sharply and was quickly in front.  DaSilva, I'm sure knowing he was on the best horse, just let her go.  She set moderate fractions of :23 and change and :47 and change.  When that half mile time flashed up I knew we were home free.  She drew off like a Breeders' Cup champ against her rivals today.  Another triple investment and another winner!

Cashed for nearly $30!  Right back at Belmont with a Todd Pletcher runner, Vandalize.  One thing I've become "better" at, I think" is in recognizing that the "best" bet on any given day is not necessarily in the feature race.  Such was the case here where Vandalize was my Belmont Best.  Vandalize was a $240K sales grad and obviously had talent.  He had run sharply in his debut without winning, but that was also the issue....that race had come in February, of 2015!  As I wrote in my analysis, anyone who wanted to take a stand against a short-priced favorite off such a layoff would get no argument from me, but I thought he looked much the best.  He'd been working sharply and the DRF stats showed Pletcher as a 35% winner with long layoff runners (which I'd known).  Then I read in the DRF analysis that over the last two years Pletcher had entered thirteen horses off a layoff of a year or longer and won with SIX of them!  Good enough to make him a prime-time play for me.  I expected him to break sharply from the rail under John Velazquez and wire the field but instead, after indeed breaking sharply he was outrun through the opening quarter.  Hmmmm, that's not the way I thought this would go, maybe I misjudged how good he was.  But Velazquez gave him a clever ride, allowing the two price horses to duel while he waited patiently to mid-turn.  He eased Vandalize out three wide for clear run and set sail for the wire.  MUCH THE BEST!  And I had my seventh on the day!

At Tampa I thought I'd be a "smart guy" and go against leading rider Antonio Gallardo who was on my second choice Distorted Type.  That one had the ten post and the best figures but I thought Koala Queen could surprise as she'd only been out twice on the turf and won them both and jockey Daniel Centeno had been on Distorted Type last time for trainer Jamie Ness - a trainer he rode for often - and today he'd switched to Koala Queen!  Well, 'Queen was bet down to 6/5 and Distorted Type floated up to 7/2.  Centeno gave my horse the worst ride in the history of mankind (ok, maybe a slight exaggeration!) while Gallardo was in the clear and sailed home as much the best.  My son Jeff texted that he'd just logged on to play the races and "....what were they thinking, Gallardo at 7/2!"  Yeah, tell me about it.  Sigh.......At Woodbine Field of Courage was 2/1 and stalked the leaders, cruised up easily and ready to run by.  But as they straightened for home she bobbled and lost her action for just about a stride or two.  Recovered, but now another had jumped to the front with a smooth run.  They battled to the wire, but second best in a very tight photo.  Oh the margin for error in racing is so slim sometimes!  Speaking of which, in the feature at Gulfstream, the Miami Mile, a Grade 3 event I thought Middleburg looked much the best.  He was a nice 2/1, but Jockey Joe Bravo had him too far back behind a loose-on-the-lead Ramsey colt AND got pinned inside with now where to run.  Finally got free and was absolutely F-L-Y-I-N-G.....PHOTO, again....

Yes, second, again.  Sigh.  The 7th at Belmont provided me with a good example of what Jim and I had talked about earlier in the day.  I had told him that he would discover, now that he was following the races more closely, that he would find winners in races where when he looked over the field he'd be able to say, "hey, I know that horse and his story."  In New York this looked like an innocuous entry level allowance.  But what perhaps many did not know, in spite of looking at the past performances, was the whole story on Todd Pletcher's Rally Cry, my choice.  Earlier in the winter in a weekday feature allowance Rally Cry had faced Shagaf, who came with a lot of hype.  Both were exiting impressive maiden wins.  That day Rally Cry had all kinds, and I mean ALL KINDS of trouble in a short five horse field while Shagaf cruised home with a clean trip on the outside.  It was such a troubled trip that when Rally Cry was next seen, facing Shagaf again, but this time in the Grade 3 Gotham I went with Rally Cry.  Again he did not have a smooth trip as he was wide over the off going while all the winners sailed along inside that day, like Shagaf who was just up in time to beat a longshot.  Well, Shagaf is off to the Kentucky Derby next Saturday and here's Rally Cry.  He was patiently handled, much as Vandalize had been, eased out at the top of the stretch and edged clear to score at a very generous $7.20 payoff leading me to cash for almost $40!

In the eighth at Woodbine, champion Lexie Lou was returning home and I thought she would run very well in spite of facing others with stakes-laden resumes.   She was a fair 9/5 but didn't fire, third in a five horse field.  But I was back in the winner's circle when Jump Jive an Wail rallied from well off the pace to catch the long time leader as the even money favorite at Laurel.  The race unfolded just as I had projected it and I had my ninth winner on the day.  At Belmont, their feature was the Elusive Quality on the turf going seven furlongs.  It was wide open I believed, so I went with Bill Mott's Mosler who'd earned a career best figure winning THIS RACE last year.  And I thought he had excuses in each try since.  Turning for home at a big 6/1 he was in front.  But I knew, after pressing sizzling fractions of :21 and change and then a wicked :43 and change half mile that the distance was too far.  Weakened late, but still a courageous third.  That would have been a "day-maker" win.  At Laurel Big Timer was third when closing, but not good enough at 5/2 and Miz Graycee was a HUGE disappointment at 3/5 in my first pick from Los Alamitos, third behind a $50 winner.  Next up was Gulfstream's co-feature, the Powder Break Stakes.  In my analysis I'd written that jockey Joe Bravo should be going for a sweep of the stakes races, but I was against him in the second stakes race, but thought that trainer Christophe Clement WOULD win both ends - the first with Middleburg and the second with Notte d'Oro.  As I told Jim prior to the race, I thought we had an outstanding shot to win because there were at least four who wanted the lead and we were a stalker with a good late kick.  About five minutes before post time as we walked to our seats I said to Jim, "....you now what worries me, it's just "track logic" here - when there is a race with multiple front runners, I've seen it happen so many times that all the jockeys take back but one and that one wires the field; AND one of the speedsters has Bravo up who I went against here!"  The gates opened, and you have to know how this plays out......yes, Bravo was allowed to "walk the dog" through slow fractions on the front end, our horse came running late, but couldn't catch the loose-on-the-lead front runner as Bravo won and paid nearly $8.  But I was able to recoup some lost winnings in the finale at Belmont.  Conquest See Ya had been my top choice in his debut a couple of weeks ago at Woodbine for trainer Mark Casse.  But he'd broken slowly as the favorite and run third in a short sprint.  Today he was here at Belmont, moving synthetic-to-turf, stretching out to six furlongs and adding blinkers.  Casse wins at nearly 30% with the "blinkers on" angle and has scored with four-of-ten runners going synthetic to turf over the last two years.  Conquest See Ya was also the DRF's Mike Beer's "BEST" of the day.  He pressed a sharp pace - much like Mosler had - into the stretch (:21 and change, :45 flat), but unlike that one he drew off impressively in a sharp final time of 1:07 and change!

And the best part was he had gone off at 3/1!  I was cashing for nearly $45 on my tenth winner!  At Laurel Nucifera was a big 5/1 and I really liked him, but he ran to his odds when 7th.  But I closed out the live racing with a sharp win at Woodbine in their finale.  This was a claiming event going five furlongs so you know it would probably be a front runner.  And top rider DaSilva was on a sharp front runner with the rail.  BUT.....trainer Justin Nixon was a Woodbine 40% Club member with runners making their start off a layoff.  Over the last two seasons horses doing that would have earned you a return of nearly $50 profit on $2 bets.  Tevez was from the Nixon barn and he looked to sit the perfect stalking trip behind DaSilva's horse who probably would have company.  But when they broke from the gate, just like in the Powder Break, there was DaSilva loose on the lead!  Sigh.....but as they turned for home Tevez was gathering up momentum on the outside and DaSilva was imploring his horse to get to the wire........soooooo close but in the end, WE WIN!

The better than 2/1 odds paid $6.80 and I would cash out for nearly $35 on my eleventh win!  Jim filmed my final live video clip of the day in the paddock and we headed to the parking lot.  But both of us had late bets, especially with a focus on Opening Night at Churchill Downs.

When I got home I checked out the first set of four late races on my sheet and watched all four lose - Judy Judy Judy second at 3/5 in the Churchill opener, Precious Time third at Golden Gate, Hazards of Love nothing at 8/5 in Churchill's second and Better Bet led all the way to deep stretch before fadin in the 6th at Los Alamitos.  I watched some TV with Kim and then returned to the computer to watch the last few races on my sheet.  There were three stakes races from the five races left and I had high hopes in all of them.  The first was the featured California Chrome from Los Alamitos.  I really liked Uncle Lino here.  He had raced in three straight graded stakes for 3yo at Santa Anita against the best in the west and run 2nd, 3rd, and 4th.  The drop into a listed stakes here made him the pick.  AND he was Brad Free's BEST Bet.  He went to the front and all the way down the long backstretch he was being hounded on the front end.  With the long Los Al stretch I knew this wasn't a good thing :(  As they turned for home here came not one but two stalkers to challenge.  But Uncle Vino dug in and held them off all the way to the wire!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOOO!

My triple investment would return nearly $35 to my Xpressbet account!  At Golden Gate the Grade 3 San Francisco Mile was wide open.  But I liked Hall of Fame Richard Mandella's Bal a Bali despite the wide draw (post twelve).  She was flying wide through the stretch in a 3-way photo, third at 9/5.  Next up was the feature from Churchill Downs, the six furlong William Walker.  It had poured down rain at Churchill spoiling their opening night affair, but there looked to be a big crowd who didn't seem to care :)  In this spot I made Toews on Ice my BET of the Night.  First of all, he'd been on the Triple Crown trail early on, and had been a best-of-the-rest second in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity in his 2yo finale behind one of my Kentucky Derby horses, Mor Spirit.  Second, he was unbeaten in one-turn sprints, like this.  And third, he was sent out by trainer Bob Baffert.  Two years ago when I'd done a Churchill Downs handicapping project and used Jim Mazur's 40% Club book, Baffert was in the club with a huge 67% win rate with sprinters at Churchill Downs.  His early speed also would help him take advantage of the way wet tracks typically play.  Sure enough, he pressed the leaders 3 wide down the backside and I could tell the rider had a ton of horse under him.  They turned for home and for just a minute I wondered if he was good enough, but then he found another gear and he was the easiest of winners!

Paid what I thought was a more-than-fair $4.20 so I'd cash for over $40 into my online account :)  The next race was rained off the turf so I passed, but Jim's horse won - pretty sure he had that one as he'd made all his bets ahead of the races.  I had to wait over an hour and a half from the William Walker win to my next-to-last bet of the night, a maiden special sprint where I liked High Heeled Girl.  I was watching the streaming video from Churchill and in the paddock their handicapper Joe Kristufek, mentioned the weather and how he'd gone winless so far - that's not a good way to start off the meet.  Then he said, "....hopefully I get get off the schneid with High Heeled Girl...."  Really, he likes my horse?  But she rallied up three wide and edged clear late to win!  My fourteenth score of the day.  I was nearly certain I'd get number fifteen in the finale where Full Scope was the LONE Speed on the rail and dropping in class.  But right away I smelled trouble when he was pressed by a longshot into the turn.  Probably would have won anyway had it been six furlongs instead of seven, but he weakened late to be third.  Still, on the day I'd won with nearly 40% of my picks, and it was a very good day.  I put together how Jim and I had done in our "head-to-head competition" to top off the day..........

April  27-30 Highlights - Part 2

Sunday May 1
A remarkable week of racing concluded with two more big wins.  When I'd begun handicapping the Saturday card and had gone to the Woodbine website I'd seen in their "News" that multiple stakes winning Caren was running in the Sunday feature.  I had won with her multiple times last year and knew she was unbeaten on the main track, so I made note to bet her.  Then on Friday when I was looking on Gabby Gaudet's Twitter account for a link to her picks for Saturday I noted a tweet where she mentioned that top jockey Trevor McCarthy could have a big weekend as he had several live mounts on Saturday and was riding the ageless Ben's Cat on Sunday.  I love that guy!  So, since I was going to bet both of those I went online to see if anyone was running at Belmont that was of interest and sure enough, in their Sunday feature one of my favorite fillies, and one of the best turf sprinters in the country, Lady Shipman was running!  OK, I'm going to play all three I thought.  As Sunday rolled around I began to wonder if I should maybe just watch after so much racing action on Saturday.  With the big winning percentage I'd barely been in the black for the day and I didn't want to come out behind for the weekend.  Not that anyone would know or care, except me, but still I knew it would bother me.  But in the end I decided that I would play as originally intended.  I went into my Xpressbet account to make the first wager on Ben's Cat when I remembered that over the last three years in his comeback race I'd bet on Ben's Cat and he was always second, then won his next start.  Maybe I'll bet win and place I thought.  I actually looked for the "Place Bet" tab in the wager window but then I thought, no, I'm a win bettor - play the way I play and let the chips fall where they may because if he DOES win and I split my investment I'd be so irritated!  About half way through the day I went online to watch and as they came out of the turn Ben's Cat was wide and about five off the leader, but he was rolling.....this is going to be close!  UP IN TIME and at a generous 2/1 price, I'd cash for $30!  NICE!!!!!!!!

Around 5 pm I logged on to watch the next two races and make the wagers.  As the analysts talked about Caren at Woodbine, and she was a prohibitive 3/5, I began to have that "nagging feeling" about her 2016 debut when I'd seen her run at Tampa.  Granted it was a turf race and she was better on the synthetic I thought.  But she'd not looked good at all.  Still, I stuck with the bet.  She pressed the pace, glided up to the lead and just where she would burst away last year, she was all out to hold the lead.  She fought courageously, but was nailed in the final strides (inside in the blue cap in photo below).

Now it came down to Lady Shipman who I'd made my "BET of the Day."  One reason I'd preferred her over Caren in the wagering decision was that two of the runners she'd face scratched, so she only had three others to beat.  This would mean she'd be a very short price and as I flipped screen to the live NYRA feed I knew that even if she won I didn't think I'd profit on the day.  Sigh.......  The first thing I noticed was Lady Shipman was a prohibitive 1/5.  No surprise.  But then I noticed how dark the screen was.  What's the deal?  Then I saw it when the camera zoomed in on her in her stable.  It was pouring down rain.  Uh oh.  Now we have multiple "issues."  I was willing to over look that today she was going six furlongs instead of her usual five or five and a half - despite the fact that this is a HUGE difference in turf sprints; and I'd been willing to overlook that she was making her first start after travelling half way around the world to run in Dubai - and it is not at all uncommon when American runners come back from competing in the Dubai World Cup that they need a race even if there is an extended break before racing again here.  But it had only been about six weeks.  Hmmmm, and now it's a soaked course?  Then the NYRA analysts come on and begin talking about her and they begin to discuss trainer Kiaran McLaughlin and announce that his barn has been ice cold without a winner in twenty days - wow, how may things can line up against me here!  I began to consider changing and/or canceling the bet.  And then, much like the Ben's Cat play I thought, if she wins, like I think she will - convincingly - I'll be so irritated.  So I left the bet.  They broke out of the gate and right away I knew, I JUST KNEW, I'm in.  Jockey Irad Ortiz is looking around at the other three fillies and his body language was screaming, "is anyone trying to run with me because I have a TON of horse under me!"  She opened up without ever being asked through the lane and ran away by nearly a pole.  And the most remarkable thing.......somehow in an ultra-short field of four fillies, this multiple stakes winner - who had been second against older males in the Grade 1 $1 million Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint had been sent off at a huge 1/2 price in a $100K listed stakes.  How can she pay over $3 against three listed stakes also-rans?  Who knows, but the racing gods were with me and suddenly I've added a 2-for-3 winning day and over $15 in profit!  WHAT A GREAT Week it was!

Sunday May 1

April 22-23

Charles Town Classic Weekend

April 22 - 23

Originally when I looked over the racing schedule for the month of April it looked to me like this would be a month that I'd look past.  But my schedule was light and I ended up playing the Keeneland card all week and then added Woodbine for Friday.  With very limited plays on Wednesday and Thursday I only had one winner, but it was a PRIME TIME "Bet of the Day" with a Wesley Ward 2yo first-time starter.  Lady Aurlia had been my top choice in a spot like this last week but scratched out to let her stable mate win.  She had sharp works and the obvious Ward 2yo angle.  Right to the front and LONG GONE - set a track record to boot!  But this was my only winner while I ran second on two other events.   For Saturday I handicapped the Keeneland, Woodbine, and Charles Town cards.  I played them all online and I enjoyed a good weekend of racing!  Let's see how this played out.......

Friday April 22

Today was a G-O-O-D day!  This was the first racing card for Woodbine on a weekday - by the end of next month they will be running on Wednesday nights, Thursday, Friday and the weekend, but to this point they have only been running on the weekend.  Local handicapper Jim Mazur has a deal with Woodbine and he posts his "Woodbine Handicapper" book on their website and offers it for free - a significant savings and I like using his 40% Club angles as well as the Blue-Chip Trainer angles.  I had success last summer with my Woodbine Handicapping project so I anticipate playing Woodbine frequently over the next several months.  After looking over the card I found three races where I like runners enough to believe I had a betting edge, and the first two I thought were very strong plays.  In the opener an entry level allowance group were going two turns - the first route race of the meet.  On the outside in a short field of five was Niigon's Legacy and she looked to easily be the speed of the field.  Front runners have been doing especially well through the first few weekends of racing, but sometimes the way the track plays for sprints differs from routes.  But, one of the BEST bets in racing is the angle of "LONE Speed."  I tripled the bet on Niigon's Legacy.  Right to the front and was never in danger of losing.  Whoooo hoooo I'm on the board immediately! 

I thought that considering it was a field of five and it was obvious she was the lone speed in the race, that 4/5 was a more-than-fair price.  I cashed for nearly $30!The second race was a five furlong spring for claiming sprinters in restricted company of non-winners of three lifetime.  #4 Mel's Ring was a very, VERY obvious play to me.  First, she was the clear speed of the race, which at this short distance was going to be a huge advantage; second, she was a perfect 2-for-2 at this distance here and both came with top jockey Eurico DaSilva on board, who was up today.  And third, trainer Ralph Biamonte had a Woodbine Blue Chip angle when these circumstances align:  a claiming race for less than a $40K tag, with the runner making a class move and turning back in distance.  When that happens he shows a huge 55% win rate.  Mel's Ring was dropping out of a $40K race to today's $20K level and cutting back from six furlongs to five furlongs.  Typically a "turnback" would be moving from a route to a sprint, but considering all the other angles in here, it just added to the appeal.  She broke a step slowly, but was hustled to the front before the opening quarter mile was covered.  Clear by daylight into the far turn and no one challenged her to the wire! 

Again, like the opener, considering the multiple angles that pointed her out and the short field, I thought 4/5 was a more than generous price.  When I handicapped the races for today I tried to be very selective with my choices for the day.  As a result I didn't have anything at Keeneland until their fifth - a nine furlong event for non-winners of two lifetime.  Now, typically when I play a restricted event like this the handicapping is easy........is there a runner making their first start in conditioned company?  If not, then I might consider a runner dropping from a higher priced nw2L if they have decent form.  But I rarely play a runner who has multiple losses in conditioned company.  This is why in racing you "never say never."  Owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey point for the Keeneland spring and fall meetings and it means a great deal to them to be the leading trainers at these prestigious meets.  You will often find they drop horses lower than they should to pick up a win and/or claim runners with the express purpose of running and winning here.  Such was the case here with Inspire Courage.  Scanning down this runner's past performances it couldn't be a coincidence that his best career effort was HERE at Keeneland, at this distance in 2-lifetime company.  Michael Maker trains and top rider Javier Castellano was in the saddle.  The crowd bet him down to even money as you know they saw the same things I did.  He pressed the pace and looked well in hand as they turned for home.  But he was all out to edge clear in the final 100 yards.  Still, a win's a win!  THREE in a ROW! 

Right back in the sixth at Keeneland.  We were on the turf for Maiden Specials, sophomore colts.  Much like the fifth, this was a "break the rules" kind of selection.  It is rare that I will play a maiden race with a runner who has on multiple occasions run second and third, especially if they have disappointed as the favorite.  Such was the case with Sir Dudley Digges.  He had run second or third in five of six starts, including back-to-back seconds as the favorite.  But there were these mitigating circumstances.......he had been drawn wide in his previous two AND had earned field best speed figures in both.  But, more importantly, like the fifth, he was running in the iconic colors of Ken & Sarah Ramsey.  Jockey Julian Leparoux is not a rider I trust, but he is always at his best when he rides at Keeneland, and he was up today.  I also thought we'd get a more than fair price.  There was little speed in the field, so Leparoux went right to the front.  He stole the race - gotta give him credit for slowing the pace to a glacial :50 for the opening half mile and an even more tepid 1:16 for three quarters of a mile.  No one was catching him as he turned for home - ran away. 

And the price was indeed generous as he paid $8.80 allowing me to cash for over $20 with my FOURTH consecutive win of the day!  I finally missed when Bear's Pearl ran evenly at 5/2 in the 8th at Woodbine, sixth under the wire.  Back to Keeneland in the 8th, an entry level allowance sprinting on the turf.  These kinds of races are typically not my best races to handicap so I usually have to feel very good about a runner to take a shot.  I found Late Spring who was listed at a big 6/1 in the program.  I admit that this was one time the price played into my handicapping because I thought she had a real chance at a price.  She had a solid 6/2-2-1 turf sprint resume; Corey Lanerie is having a really good meet and he was up today.  But best of all there looked to be a lot of speed in the race and she was a strong finisher with an outside draw.  As the field sprinted through the opening quarter they were going very quickly and there at least half a dozen bunched near the front while Lanerie was lingering near the back.  As they hit the far turn he hit the accelerator and she began picking off horses.  She was at least eight wide into the lane but had a full head of steam.  In the final sixteenth she drew even and was JUST up in time.  And check out the price.......

WHOOOO HOOOOO!  I am guaranteed to have a winning day!  I had tried to be conservative with my selections and bets today, so after the two triple investment scores to start the day I'd only been wagering the minimum, but in spite of this I was guaranteed to win at least $50 and change today, and my "BET of the Day" was up next, my final bet of the day.  The Grade 3 Doubledogdare for older fillies and mares was the feature at Keeneland and the star attraction was I'm A Chatterbox who had run in five straight Grade 1 events to close out her sophomore season.  She'd won two Grade 1 events, been DQ'd from another Grade 1 and had been a strong second in the Kentucky Oaks after sweeping the Fair Grounds' 3yo filly events.  Still, today she was coming off a layoff and facing older for the first time.  I thought she'd been training exceptionally well and the field was not loaded with standouts - in fact there was only one other graded winner in the field and her speed figures were double digits slower than I'm A Chatterbox with all but one exception.  One of the best young riders in the game Florent Geroux gave 'Chatterbox an indecisive ride - trapped on the rail into the far turn you could tell he couldn't decide whether to get into the clear, but lose ground by moving wide, or risk getting blocked on the rail trying to save ground.  As a result he lost his best opportunity to do both and when she finally got clear inside she was too late, second behind a $52 winner.  That would have been a nice topping to the day, but still, who can complain about going 5-for-7 and making over $50 on a Friday afternoon at the races!

Saturday April 23
I handicapped today's races with the same eye towards conservatism on selections and wagering, but when I printed out my selection sheet I had fourteen picks on the day and eleven of them were added money investments - though none were "prime time" or "bet of the day" status.  And much like Friday (and unlike the first three days of the week) I got off to a quick start.  In the opener at Woodbine Three Ring Circus looked to be an obvious choice.  He was cutting his price tag in half and dropping into a 3-lifetime claiming sprint today.  A quick bullet work over the Tapeta surface said he should be ready to run a big one.  I anticipated with the five-hole draw that he'd press the inside speed, but he broke out of the gate like a shot and was quickly in front.  He was in hand turning for home with a daylight advantage, but was pressed in deep stretch to run hard to hang on....but hang on he did and I was quickly 1-for-1 on the day.

At Keeneland Steel Cut looked like an even more obvious choice.  As I wrote in my analysis, "....on class, form, and speet figures Steel Cut TOWERS over her rivals in the opener - DRF BEST Bet; won't make much money but it's a good way to start off the Keeeneland card with a win....."  Sent off at a prohibitive 1/5 she led under a hand ride to the turn.  A longshot circled up and I thought cut Steel Cut off as they turned for home, but she wasn't going to run with the winner, second best.  Sigh......But in the second I had the winner in Successful Runner.  Just like on Friday's card, the key was that this one was running for Ken & Sarah Ramsey.  The bad news was that he'd had lots of chances in this 2-lifetime condition, but the good news was that if he ran to his figures - coming off a layoff - his numbers were a pole better than what any of today's rivals were likely to run.  He circled up four wide under a hand ride and was much, MUCH the best!  Win #2!  The Charles Town undercard had several minor stakes to support their signature race and honestly it was the reason I decided in the end to play the card as there were no superstars in the Grade 2 feature later in the day.  The first of those minor events came in the fourth, the It's Binn Too Long Stakes.  RC's Daisy Duke had debuted with a win over this track then won a minor stakes at Delaware.  In her most recent two races she was a best-of-the-rest second in stakes company behind the same filly who was NOT in today's field.  She looked to be a short-priced favorite and she was at a minuscule 1/5 at post time.  She seemed reluctant to want to run initially but the rider hustled her to the front.  Once clear of the field she seemed to sense that she was a winner and easily wired the field under a hand ride!

At Woodbine Conquest Partygirl looked best despite drawing post twelve and having failed to get the job done as a favored first time starter last time out.  But trainer Mark Casse is dangerous with ANY runner for the Conquest Stables and especially strong with second-time starting maiden runners.  THe crowd bet the 'Partygirl to 6/5 favoritism and she looked every bit the part as she pressed the leader in hand through the far turn.  But when asked the question at the top of the lane she had nothing and dropped back through the field like she had an anchor around her neck - 7th.  Back to West Virginia and in the 6th it was The Coin Collector Stakes.  The seven runners facing Bullet's Fever were either exiting a maiden win or moving up out of 2-lifetime or 3-lifetime company.  Meanwhile my top choice was a perfect thre-for-three and had not only already won a state-bred stakes like this, but had won an open stakes!  She was NOT the favorite and I was amazed at the way the betting went.  But not everyone was fooled as she was still 4/5 at post time.  This was a more than generous price considering, I thought.  She went right to the front and was easily LONG GONE for my fourth win of the day in my first six selections!

I missed in The Caixia Electronica Stakes in the next at CT and then Goodoldhockeygame was second at 6/5 in Woodbine's feature, The New Providence, when in tight and steadied at the top of the stretch.  Flying up the rail to just miss in spite of the trouble.  The 10th at Charles Town was the Robert Hilton Memorial going seven furlongs, which is a two-turn event at this small oval.  I liked Dig Deep who had just broken his maiden at Gulfstream.  He was second in his debut in what has turned out to be a KEY race.  The winner that day was a colt named Majesto who exited that MSW victory to be second to undefeated Kentucky Derby favorite Nyquist in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.  Javier Castellano had the mount today.  He pressed the pace into the turn and then drew off as much, MUCH the best.

I thought that the even money price - again not the favorite - was more than generous on this colt who looks to have a bright future!  That was my fifth win of the day, but it proved to my my last.  I missed on the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic when Todd Pletcher's Stanford wired the field for Javier Castellano.  Again, you shake your head and wonder how those two team up to win a major event and pay $9.  For me personally I'd had Stanford in the Louisiana Derby a year ago and he was beaten on the wire at a big 7/1 then I'd missed with him in his most recent; but today I was off him and he wired the field in a clever ride.  Finished the day a strong 5-for-14, but didn't have nearly the profit as last weekend since the "biggest" price on the day was the $4.20 I got on Dig Deep.  Next weekend is Opening Weekend at Churchill Downs and begins the countdown to the Kentucky Derby!  The featured graded stakes of the weekend will be locally in the Grade 3 Miami Mile so I'll be on track next Saturday!

April 16

Apple Blossom Weekend - April 15/16

The Grade 1 Apple Blossom highlighted the Friday action, but it was a day of close calls with only one winner for me.  The day started off with Union Jackson wiring a solid $100K AOC field at Keeneland but then it was one miss after another as Privy Council was third at 3/5, Apologynotaccepted was second at 1/2, I Will Score 2nd at 3/2 in the Bachelor Stakes at Oaklawn, Heart to Heart led to the final fifty yards but was nailed late, 2nd in the Grade 1 Maker's Mark Mile at Keeneland at a big 3/1 price and finally Untapable disappointed again when fading to fourth at 4/5 in the featured Grade 1 Apple Blossom.  But the day was highlighted by our Florida Panthers rebounding to win Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs in front of Kim and I at the arena. 

April 4-14 Highlights

Jenny Wiley Day / Arkansas Derby Day

I wanted to go to the races live but again went back and forth.  Finally deciding it would be a good day to go in spite of a selection sheet that wasn't "loaded" with picks.  You can certainly tell the Championship Meet at Gulfstream is over as after going through the local card I could only find two marginal selections.  Compare that to even a weekday card would find five or six selections.  But this made the decision of where to sit an easy one, in the Silks Simulcast Center.  I arrived at Gulfstream about 45 minutes before first post and unlike the winter where I would probably find one of the last parking spots, today I had my pick.....OF THE FRONT ROW!  What a difference the good horses make.  I picked up my ticket for my carrel and then made my way over to the Xpressbet desk where I needed to combine my new online account with my current rewards account at Gulfstream.  The lady was very helpful and pointed out I had over 60,000 points and when I reached 65,000 I'd be eligible for a $75 check, but if I waited to reach 80,000 points I'd receive a $100 reward.  That's my goal and with the online account I should get there sometime this summer.  As she was doing the work to create my new combined account I noticed on the banner next to her desk that it mentioned one of the perks was that you got free past performances.  With the Twinspires account these were Brisnet past performances which are good, but I prefer the DRF.  I had looked on the Xpressbet page but had not found this link so I asked.  She showed it to me and as she explained it lo and behold the new account includes DRF past performances.  That may not seem like a big deal, but for someone like me that plays all the time it will be a big savings.  The cards are much more affordable online than buying the print version, and when purchased in bulk packages, as I do, they are even less expensive.  Still, on the average every two to three months I am paying $79.95 for a new set of past performances.  Even if it's every three months, that's nearly $350 annually that will now be FREE!  I won't ever see that money, but knowing I'm saving it is a pleasant perk.  So I headed to my monitor and desk and looked up at the monitors.  I got settled and then headed outside to make a couple of intro videos and was back about ten minutes before post time for the opener at Keeneland.  The race was a nw1x entry level allowance going a mile and a sixteenth for three-year-old fillies and on paper it came down to two.  The lightly raced Inheritance figured to be the favorite, but I liked Dream Dance who was coming in here off a sharp second in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks.  As they hit the far turn the favorite was giving way on the lead, but I was near the back beginning to move, but with the short stretch to the first finish line, it looked like I would not have enough time.  As they turned for home Dream Dance had moved into third but still had a lot to do.  But then, and only watching the highlight video below will provide you with a true explanation, the filly found a new gear and just blew by to be up in time. 

The price was short considering she was the second choice, but it was fair in my opinion.  With my double investment I would collect $25 to start the day!  The first of the two Gulfstream selections was next, a five furlong sprint and Big Distinction was the lone speed and first off the claim for a barn that was winning with those at a 34% clip.  Right to the front, a daylight lead at the furlong pole.  As I filmed I even said, "...my first winner at Gulfstream..." only to watch him get nailed in the final strides as they ran past me on the rail.  THAT is the difference between the Championship Meet and the Spring/Summer Meet in a nutshell.  Sigh.....Back inside where Chevy's Pharoah was 7/2 at Oaklawn but faded to be 8th after pressing the pace into the far turn.  Last weekend I'd played a few races on the Opening Day card at Woodbine, but had been uncertain because I'd read they had changed the surface to a Tapeta synthetic track.  I had felt, after my handicapping project there last summer that I had a real "feel" for Woodbine.  I had in fact done very well there after compiling nearly 100 wins, a 33% win average and a big $2.12 ROI last summer/fall.  But I didn't do well last weekend with limited picks.  I read this past week that the new surface played to speed, and that made me even more confident about my choice in the second, Omar who was THE speed of the race.  It was also a plus that the race was a short five furlongs.  He burst out of the gate under hottie Emma Jayne Wilson and wired the field for my second win.  Cashed for nearly $20!  The third at Keeneland provides a good case study in what makes my handicapping different from what the "professional" and/or "value" handicappers do.  For those guys and gals, it's about finding the most likely winner at a fair price.  If that winner is not going to offer you value then you pass the race or you wager less on a better price.  The numbers "say" that in the long run you make more money that way.  To be fair, I played that way for a short period of time, but got tired of watching the horse I thought would win, actually WIN while I held a worthless "value" ticket with a better price.  So for me the question is simply, who is going to win?  If I believe they have a big enough edge to warrant a wager, that's the bet.  The more confident, and/or the price then determines how much to wager.  So in today's third race it was a sprint for three-year-old maiden fillies.  It was very, very obvious who should win, the program favorite Kareena who was listed at a prohibitive 3/5 in the program.  She'd been a best of the rest second behind a filly slated to run in tomorrow's Grade 3 feature while finishing in front of the show filly who not only had already come back to win but had been SIXTEEN in front of the rest of the field.  Oh.  As I wrote in my analysis, I wasn't going to make any money, but she was going to win.  As expected she was 1/5 at post time, but she was TONS the best.  Through the far turn she was under a strangle-hold from jockey Paco Lopez but still ran :21 and change.  Into the stretch he let her run and she drew off as she pleased for my second winner on the day! 

I had tripled the bet so I cashed for nearly $20 again.  Coin Broker was the tepid 9/5 favorite in the 2nd at Oaklawn but made a belated run without threatening the winner to be fourth.  Then Whateveryouwant was second at Aqueduct at 2/1.  He had looked like the lone speed but the rider decided to rate off the longshot front runner who wired the field while uncontested.  Wow.  The fourth at Aqueduct was one of the most satisfying wins of the day.  If you followed my Gulfstream adventures you know I wrote on several occasions that while I respect NY handicapper Andy Serling I do NOT agree with his handicapping, or attitude.  The third was a MSW turf route and the program favorite, Cloontia was an obvious play-against to me.  She was already an 0-for-4 maiden, strike one, and had faltered as the favorite here last time out, strike two.  But for me it was not only that she lost as the prohibitive 6/5 chalk, but top rider Javier Castellano had been on her and as they turned for home she had no response, not even close.  She doesn't want to win, that seemed obvious.  Was there an alternative?  YES!  Chad Brown excels with first time starters, ESPECIALLY on the turf.  And he had one here in Call Provision.  So as I'm watching the pre-race analysis from Aqueduct Serling is going on and on about how good Cloontia is and that you "can't tell how good the Brown first time starters are this time of year."  Say what?  Here's a guy that is almost always against the chalk simply because it's the chalk and he likes the 4/5 favorite who to me is an OBVIOUS loser?  I will so enjoy beating him.  They leave the gate and right away trouble........Cloontia goes right to the front, gets an uncontested lead and sets moderate fractions.  Meanwhile Call Provision breaks slowly, is quickly over half a dozen lengths behind and will have to rally into a slow pace.  This can't be good.  As they hit the far turn my filly has yet to make an impact while Cloontia is coasting along.  Into the stretch I've improved to be fourth but Cloontia is still sailing along.  I honestly had the thought run through my head "....you know you don't want to win...." and then Call Provision - just like in the Keeneland opener earlier - hit another gear and not only collared the short-priced favorite, but blew by to win by daylight!  Take that Mr. Serling! 

And at a generous 2/1 price I was cashing for well over $30!  NICE!  My second and last selection at Gulfstream was up next.  This was an entry level allowance going 8 1/2 furlongs on the turf and I liked Lucky Kitten who was stepping up in class after rattling off two in a row going wire to wire.  She looked to be the lone speed and already earlier today a winner had wired a turf route.  Right to the front, led to deep stretch and was caught late....second at 9/5.  Ironically my pick was the ONLY front runner NOT to hold on over the turf all day locally.  Sigh......At Woodbine I had a nice price play in Trip Over The Line in a 3-lifetime claiming spot.  I thought she would improve off of her last and she took the lead at the furlong pole, but having had to go eight wide into the stretch proved to be the difference as she was second on the wire by a very narrow margin at 9/2 odds.  At Keeneland I supported multiple graded stakes-placed Eskenformoney from the Todd Pletcher barn.  As I made the selection a little red flag went up in my head.  Why?  Last winter I'd backed her in her maiden win but had noted that day that the field was very weak.  And I'd been against Eskenformoney several times because I thought she was overrated.  Was that still true?  I dismissed this because Pletcher nearly always has his comeback runners primed for a big effort and she was dropping out of a fourth place finish in a Grade 1, $1 Million race to run in a second-level allowance.  Struggled all the way around the track at 6/5, finishing near the back in eighth.  Oaklawn's fifth was a second level AOC race going two turn.  It looked like a very evenly matched field, but Raagheb intrigued me.  Throughout her career he'd always run very sharply, earned good numbers and if not winning, he'd been close and in the money with the lone exception of a turf experiment a couple races back.  Then last time out, here in a similar spot he'd been the 5/2 favorite and had just stopped.  And stopped badly.  That race was SO out of character it was one of those that in my opinion you could "draw a line through it" and perhaps get a fair price as he returned to form.  He was 5/1 in the program but as they approached the gate he'd floated up to 8/1.  Oh my.  As they moved through the first turn and down the backside he was mid-pack and moving fine.  They hit the far turn and Raagheb still seemed to be waiting to run.  Saved ground into the stretch and not that far off the leaders.  Jockey Joe Rocco gave him the "GO" signal and he split horses at the sixteenth pole, collared the leader....dueled....WIN!  And check the price out - 10/1 were the final odds!  Paid $22.60 and I would be collecting over $50! 

Right back in Woodbine's 6th with Conquest Calvary.  One of two things would happen here - he would be an overbet favorite that lost again, or he was simply too good for these.  He'd burned a lot of money last year when running second several times, but after a win his most recent (in November) had been in a stakes race.  What swayed my opinion was that he was trained by Mark Casse and anytime Casse sends out a horse owned by Conquest Stables at Woodbine it's a 40% Club play.  Conquest Calvary dueled into the stretch and it looked like it should have set the race up for a strong finisher, but as they turned for home I had been right - he was simply too good for these.  Drew off with a flourish to score! 

Tripled the bet so I collected nearly $30 more on my SIXTH win of the day!  In Keeneland's Grade 3 Ben Ali I thought the lightly raced JS Bach might steal it at a price for Todd Pletcher and Javier Castellano.  10/1 in the program he was bet down to 4/1.  Pressed from the outside to the far turn, then faded to 8th.  In the next a Keeneland I liked Miss Ella in the Giant's Causeway, a turf sprint.  Her lone turf try had been a sharp second to the ultra-talented Lady Shipman.  She was fanned eight-wide into the lane and was fifth at 5/2.  The 7th at Aqueduct was their feature, the Plenty of Grace Stakes for older fillies & mares going a mile on the turf.  In the winter of 2014 I had bet Chad Brown's first-time starter Mrs McDougal and she'd been scintillating in victory.  I'd followed her ever since and she'd won the Grade 2 Lake Placid as a 3yo.  Today she returned off a layoff while dropping out of multiple graded stakes efforts to run in this listed spot.  She looked MUCH the best to me.  She coasted just behind the two longshot leaders to the turn, went by willingly and was a daylight winner, handily holding off the strong closing second choice on the board! 

I had tripled the bet so her even-money payout generated another $30 plus return!  The next three races were "smart plays" by me as I went with a runner I thought had a chance, at a price, with a minimum investment.  Jennifer Lynette was second in Woodbine's Star Shooter Stakes after leading all the way to the final fifty yards; She's A Bootsy Too was a good 4th at 5/1 in Oaklawn's Instant Racing Stakes; and Synchrony was a sharp 3/1 in the Grade 3 Lexington at Keeneland - one of the two last 3yo preps for the Kentucky Derby.  Now it was time for the BET of the DAY for me.  On February 13th I documented the story of how Tepin had been the winner of the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Mile, as a filly beating the boys, and I'd told Keith when he asked for horses to put on a trifecta ticket that she not only wouldn't win, but wouldn't hit the board.  But in February I thought she looked much the best and reluctantly - hoping my opinion on BC Day wasn't accurate - had made her the BEST of the Day.  She was sensational in winning the Grade 3 Endeavour.  Then on Tampa Bay Derby Day when I was in Tampa with my father-in-law Ed I again made her the BET of the Day in the Grade 2 Hillsborough.  She and jockey Julian Leparoux had run with ice water in their veins as Todd Pletcher's Isabella Sings blew out to an EIGHTEEN length lead down the backside, only to be inhaled confidently by Tepin in deep stretch.  So today she moved into Grade 1 company.  Would she regress today?  I'd seen both her first two efforts and I thought that like most thoroughbreds this third start off the layoff would probably be her best yet.  Still, there were two European runners who were "X" factors.....how to bet this?  I felt pretty confident I was going "all in" with a $100 WIN bet, but as I considered this I just couldn't get myself comfortable enough to make that wager.  So I resorted to what I've done in many similar instances.  When I bet the three previous races I also bet $50 to WIN on Tepin.  Now with post time approaching I was "ok" with going back to the windows to get a second $50 WIN ticket.  How is this any different you ask?  Well, I can only tell you that there have been occasions when I make that first bet and then something tells me "that's enough."  It's a very esoteric thing about playing the races that you only get with experience....at least that's what I tell myself :)  Tepin was 1/5 through most of the betting which was the "right" price for her chances, but at post time she floated up to a "generous" 2/5.  She tracked two longshots into the far turn and then without jockey Julian Leparoux asking she gently moved alongside the 60/1 leader into the lane.  He flicked his wrists and the response was instantaneous - Tepin burst to a two length, three, four, five, six length lead.  In the final sixteenth Leparoux was standing in the irons and she was galloping out under the wire.  I mention this because in spite of not running hard the entire way she set a stakes record.  WOW.....ultra-impressive yet again, and I was rewarded again. 

I collected $140 - that's a NICE profit on a filly that was way, WAY, WAY the best.  By the way the post times fell I thought this would be the last race I'd see live before heading home.  I'd watch the last three stakes selections from Oaklawn once I got back to the house.  But on the desk just next to mine I had the live feed from Oaklawn going and as Tepin crossed the wire they were about to go into the gate for the Northern Spur Stakes, a mile and a sixteenth for three-year-olds.  The field looked to be full of promising young colts, but I was very interested in one of them.  On Tampa Bay Derby Day one of my wins had come with a Todd Pletcher maiden who was coming off a layoff.  Decorated Soldier had debuted at Saratoga - any 2yo who debuts here must be highly regarded by their connections and that's often an indication of some talent.  On that day he'd been fractious before entering the gate then stumbled out of the gate.  In spite of these facts he was a sharp fourth.  So, at Tampa I tripled the bet and he ran away from the field in a very impressive showing.  I thought at the time that he was destined to be a "good one."  The fact that off a maiden win, at Tampa, Pletcher had shipped him to Oaklawn to try winners for the first time in a stakes race indicated to me that he too must have seen something very promising.  I thought this was the time to make a value play and go for a big win!  Decorated Soldier took some money but still was a big 3/1 price as they left the gate.  He stalked the leaders to the far turn then Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez made his move three wide.  He forged to the lead and had a narrow advantage.  But the rail runner had saved valuable lengths through the turn and wasn't done yet.  They battled to the wire, but I knew.  Decorated Soldier had been in front from the furlong marker and he wasn't letting anyone by.....WIN! 

The big $8.60 payoff coupled with my triple investment meant I'd cash for well over $60!  S-C-O-R-E!!!!!  I filmed a short clip on the apron for both these wins, with my new Xpressbet hat on and headed to the car with nine wins on the day and still two strong plays left to go. 

On the way home Jeff texted and called to ask about how much I really liked Cupid in the Arkansas Derby.  I told him I liked him enough to make him a strong bet and hoped he'd be "the one" for the Kentucky Derby.  He asked if I'd seen the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap and I said no, I was just pulling up at home and was going to watch.  I opened up the video replays and clicked on the Oaklawn link to the 9th race.  On Breeders' Cup Saturday when I'd watched American Pharoah win the $4 Million Breeders' Cup Classic, here, as my BET of the Weekend, I'd been surprised at the 33/1 runner-up, Effinex.  But he was ridden by Hall of Fame So Cal-based Mike Smith.  Effinex returned off that effort to win the Grade 1 Clark at Churchill Downs in late November.  He'd run last time out as the favorite in the "Big Cap" at Santa Anita but was second behind a runner named Melatonin who had been a big price that day.  The two analysts on DRF.com had both agreed that his race prior to the Big 'Cap coupled with that win might indicate he WAS that good.  I didn't buy it.  I thought Effinex was compromised by a speed favoring So Cal surface and coming off a layoff.  Back to a "more fair" track here and second off the shelf would give him a chance to rebound.  But most telling to me was that Mike Smith was willing to fly to Arkansas to ride.  Uh oh.  I went "prime time" on him.  He tracked his rival to the far turn and I could tell, I KNEW.....Smith was riding with supreme confidence and had a ton of horse.  As Melatonin's rider asked him to sprint for the wire Smith was sitting chilly and glided by.  They ran together into the stretch but I was certain this was all over but the shouting.  Smith gave a little encouragement and off Effinex went.  He blew home under a hand ride and I had my tenth win of the day. 

A more than fair $5.40 payoff led to collecting over $50 to add to my multiple winnings on the day.  Cupid disappointed in the Arkansas Derby and so I'm still without a Derby horse.  But for the day, a glorious day at the races, my numbers looked like this:

23 Selections / 10 WINS - 43%

Profit $125

April 16th Video Highlights