Wednesday April 13

THREE STRAIGHT!

Plans - who needs them?  :)  As the Gulfstream meet ended my plan for the spring/summer was to focus on weekend racing and the big stakes events.  But as I awoke today I knew that Keeneland has a stakes race a day (or so I thought).  Why not I wondered, so I downloaded the card for today and handicapped the eight races in Lexington.  Well, there wasn't a stakes race today - the one I THOUGHT was today is tomorrow - but I found five races I liked a runner and so I decided to play.  After handicapping I went for my morning walk and then settled in to watch the races as I handicapped the Thursday cards from Keeneland and Oaklawn.  I passed on the opener, and a good thing because the most likely winner did NOT win.  In the second it was a "baby race" - a maiden special for two-year-olds.  As I commented on Friday, the two-year-old races at Keeneland in the spring are like the 3yo races in the winter at Gulfstream.  There you look for any Pletcher runner, especially a debut sophomore.  And at Keeneland you look for a Wesley Ward debuting juvenile.  On Friday I faced the dilemma of two in the same race, an uncoupled entry, and it appeared the shorter price was well deserving....and she won for me.  Today in the second it was a similar scenario where they were an uncoupled entry.  But for me I thought Con Te Partiro at 4/1 was the stronger of the two despite Agelos' Ashes being the morning line favorite.  Right to the front and dueling as they approached the far turn, but then another head-strong filly blew right by Con Te Partiro and led by open lengths as they turned for home.  But she'd shot her wad getting to the front and now the Ward filly let loose a devastating kick and blew by to win going away!  WHOOO HOOO! 

Considering "everyone" knows that Ward 2yo first time starters are the real deal, I thought the $5.20 payoff was more than fair and I cashed for nearly $30 to start the day!  Note that the runner-up was the "other" Ward filly!  Right back in the third and again I did not like the program favorite.  That was Seeyouatthedisco who had won two straight since claimed by Joe Sharp.  But those races had come against $5K runners on the turf and $7.5k "beaten" claimers.  Today it was for that same price tag of $7,500 but it was OPEN company.  I liked Al's Rosie who had drawn off impressively HERE against OPEN $7.5K runners last fall and had run well against $10K and $12K at Gulfstream.  Unlike most tracks, you have to always consider a runner who's run well at Keeneland before.  Al's Rosie was last early, but then made a strong middle move to get to third as they hit the turn.  Evenly while three wide through the turn, and then while the favorite was blocked behind horses into the lane, Al's Rosie set sail for the first finish line and was easily best over the favorite! 

Another more-than-fair price of $6.20 led to collecting over $15 and I'm 2-for-2!  I passed the 4th and again my top selection did not win - pretty good today at knowing when to bet and when not!  In the fifth it was a marathon mile-and-a-half event on the turf.  There appeared to be no speed in the race so I was a bit reluctant to wager on Personal Diary, but she'd won a Grade 1 as a 3yo and had consistently earned faster numbers than any of her rivals.  It looked to me like the price play might be Pramedya who had some speed and was drawn inside.  I was right on the money as jockey Florent Geroux took Pramedya right to the front and coasted into the far turn.  Meanwhile Javier Castellano let Personal Diary settle in next-to-last until midway down the backstretch.  He hit the "GO" button and immediately she inhaled all but the top three coming out of the turn.  The top two quickly separated from the pacesetter and a stretch duel was on.  One head up and one head down as I was hoping for the best bob on the wire.  Inside the final fifty yards it appeared that with each stride Personal Diary had a nostril in front up and down on the bobs.  Officially a photo finish, but I was pretty certain I was the winner. 

Sure enough and at a very nice $9.20 price!  I cashed for nearly $25 and I was guaranteed to have a winning day from percentages and profit.  In the 7th Camelot Kitten looked good for the Ramseys and Castellano and was the 3/2 favorite, but was EIGHT-wide into the stretch and was outfinished when second.  And in the finale everyone, including me, liked Full Scope.  But he weakened in the stretch to be third.  Still, on the day a strong 3-for-5 and a profit of almost $25 on a day I'd never intended to "go to the races!"