April 27 - May 1

Opening Weekend at Churchill Downs

Wednesday April 27

Today kicked off Opening Weekend at Churchill Downs and the final days of the Spring Meet at Keeneland.  I had handicapped the Wednesday card at Keeneland where there was anticipation of some rain, but the turf races remained on the grass.  As the first went to post there were some sprinkles, but by the end of the day it was raining pretty heavily.  In the opener the top two program favorites seemed the most likely win candidates, but both were untrustworthy.  Still they faced a pretty weak field - I passed and they ran 1-2 at 8/5 and 3/2.  In the second I went with Wesley Ward's 2yo Spellker.  It's been my experience that Ward is ultra-effective with 2yo first time starters here, but when they come back they are not nearly as good a bet.  But in this case I backed her because she'd been the victim of unusual circumstances in her debut.  She was long gone in that race and the rider was ultra confident in mid-stretch in spite of a closer under Javier Castellano coming.  He misjudged that one and lost while the winner set a track record.  With a better ride and NOT facing such an impressive run she seemed a certain bounce-back winner.  I upped the bet when the most dangerous threat scratched.  Right to the front and in complete control until on the turn the second choice ran right by her!  She was a best-of-the-rest second, again the victim to a track-record setting run!  What are the odds?  In the third I thought that I had an upset candidate when I handicapped the race as it seemed to me that Miss Cobblestone would be the short-priced favorite.  I went instead with Donita's Ruler who was the LONE speed of the race.  But when I typed up my selection sheet she was the 7/5 second choice and left the gate at 4/5.  I am a frequent critic of Julian Leparoux, but he rides very well at Keeneland (and to be fair I DO give him credit for that).  This was a clever ride as he must have known he had the lone speed, but he also knew that his filly was stretching to seven furlongs so he needed something for the stretch.  As they came out of the gate he let her gradually move to the front and as they passed the opening quarter marker she was narrowly in front, but had not been asked for any speed.  She gradually eased clear of the field so that as they clicked off the opening half in :45 and change she was now clear by daylight and had yet to run.  When he let her go on the turn she drew off with authority!  Cashed for nearly $30 on my triple investment!  WHOOO HOOO!  

In the 4th Price Too High was a Ward first time starting two-year-old.  It also marked the first ride for Joel Rosario since he'd been injured late in the Gulfstream meet.  Everyone had this filly on top and she was 4/5 at post time.  Whether it was the filly or a rusty Rosario we'll never know but when the gates sprung open Price Too High was still in the gate and dead last.  A belated run earned a fourth place check but she was never a threat.  Passed the fifth.  In the sixth we were on the soft turf course and I liked two horses - Heath from the Bill Mott barn who was the likely favorite and Kitzy's Rocket who was 6/1 in the program.  I labeled that one the UPSET SPECIAL of the day.  She came into the race with a best-of-79 bullet work and that was a good tip for me.  But when I opened the Keeneland web page I was surprised to see that both Mike Battaglia and Katy Gensler had this one on top.  Sure enough as they turned for home it was the two of them dueling to wire.  The top one got the best of my horse in the final 100 yards and I was second best.  In my final selection of the day it was the featured nw3 allowance sprint and I liked No Hiding Place who again combined Rosario and Ward, but this time it was on an older runner.  I projected him to get a pressing trip from the outside and indeed he was three wide waiting to pounce around the turn when Rosario asked for him to sprint to the wire.  He did and drew off late to give me my second winner and end the day with a 40% average on the opening day of the extended weekend.

Thursday April 28th

Well, the early disappointment of the day "turned the frowns upside down" as they say, and it proved yet again that one of the great things about being a racing fan is that you simply never know when you are going to hit that winner that makes your day.  As the day opened I was a little concerned about what the weather would be like in Lexington and how it would affect my selections and the racing surfaces.  But the track was listed as "muddy" and the turf "soft" so we were OK.  Then as I was working on some paperwork I heard the scratches, ".....in the 5th race scratch Red Lodge...." - OH NO!  She was my BET of the Day, a Wes Ward 2yo filly who I was certain would romp today.  :(  I thought to myself, just play it out, there's racing tomorrow and through the weekend, today's just not meant to be "the day."  In the opener I went with Midnight Dance in a nine furlong maiden claiming event for 3yo and up.  Two factors pointed this one out - first, owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey point to the Keeneland spring and fall meets as their personal playgrounds and covet the top owner position.  So when they send out a runner here, you know they are serious.  They have made a real push over the last week of racing days and have now gained the top spot with only a couple of days left.  So the fact that Midnight Dance will run in the iconic red and white silks was a huge plus.  The other factor had two parts to it - first, the jockeys and trainers of the others in here were weak, low percentage performers; but Midnight Dance featured Javier Castellano riding for Michael Maker.  They are winning, at Keeneland, at an insane 52% rate!  Put all this together and you know this has to be the favorite.  But no....instead the crowd made my second choice Dynamo Ridge the 9/5 favorite.  If you only looked at the horse, you could buy that as he was coming off a career best finish when second going two turns over this track.  BUT.....the trainer was winless at the meet and the rider (a usually top notch James Graham) was a meager 1-for-57 here this spring.  You just cannot put those numbers up against the angles of Midnight Dance and make a case - in my opinion.  Castellano took Midnight Dance right to the front and was GONE!  And the best part, he was a juicy 5/2 on the board so I cashed for nearly $20 on a minimum play to start the day! 

I passed both the 2nd and third (and was right in my analysis that the likely winners seemed to have "issues" as they both lost as the favorite to horses that didn't figure to beat them).  In the 4th I thought I had a nice price play.  A MSW for 3yo runners going the marathon distance of a mile and a half on the turf.  I went with American Cowgirl who had been fourth in back-to-back efforts.  And the winner of the most recent had returned to win a $100K stakes race last weekend.  Julian Leparoux, who I don't particularly trust elsewhere, but have to admit he rides superbly here, was the new rider.  Left the gate at 5/1 and was sitting right off the leaders waiting to move as they turned for home.  Leparoux said "Let's Go!" and the colt stopped, completely stopped fading to 10th.  In the 6th it was another Ramsey runner, Sayler's Creek, who under most circumstances I would have passed on.  He was more effective on turf but today was dropping and running on the main track.  But with it being the Ramseys, and with Castellano riding for Maker I made him the bet.  Sent off at even money he didn't lift his hooves and was a distant 6th.  The feature race today was the eighth and it was a Maiden Special for two-year-olds.  Analyst Mike Battaglia had told the crowd in the pre-race show that one of the highlights every spring of the Keeneland meet are the two-year-olds and he listed several past juvenile winners who'd gone on to be multiple graded stakes winners, including Breeders' Cup champion Judy the Beauty, and that for this reason today's feature would spotlight the "babies."  Yes, there was a Wesley Ward runner, Lightning Dove.  But there were three others in here that looked to have real talent as well.  Still, just like at Gulfstream you are the smart handicapper to go with the Pletcher 3yo maidens, here your best bet is to stick with the Ward 2yo runners.  I doubled the bet on 'Dove.  Jockey Joel Rosario shot her right to the front and she won in hand!  Considering she was Ward-trained I thought the 4/5 price was more than fair and I cashed for nearly $20. 

In the finale we were going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf.  It was a second level allowance event and I thought the race looked wide open.  The favorite looked to be War Envoy who had earned the most money and had run two strong races, but in his most recent he was a distant third in a stakes race, in Barbados.  In Barbados?  That can't be a strong group of runners.  So I looked elsewhere for a price.  Found him in Prince Gagarin.  The Prince was listed at 12/1 making him appealing in this spot and then two angles cemented the play.  First, he was going to get Keeneland specialist Julian Leparoux, and second, if you looked down his pp's you noted that he'd run against Highland Reel and Curvy in his European races.  The former had won the Grade 1 Secretariat on Million Day (as my top choice!) last summer and the latter had won the Grade 1 E.P. Taylor at Woodbine last fall (as my BEST BET when we were on our "Fall Leaves Cruise!).  So he had back class, a top rider, and was a price.  Leparoux got him into a good stalking spot behind a double-digit longshot leader into the far turn then made his move.  He was grinding away and caught the leader inside the furlong pole and edged clear late for my third win!  And at a very healthy 5/1!  The $12.00 payoff meant I'd cash for an even $30 and sealed a 60% winning day with a profit that doubled my investment and then some on the day!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!

Friday April 29th
The good news about the Friday racing was that I added two more wins to my week's totals and one of them was my "BEST of the Day" in Woodbine's eighth.  The bad news was that I had SIX selections run second or third resulting in a financial loss for the bottom line.  Little Cherie disappointed at 3/5 in Keeneland's opener followed by Miss Tatey Cat running third at 3/2 at Woodbine.  Missed at Belmont on their opening day card in the third with Shadow Rider - fourth, the only off-the-board-finish of any selections.  I scored at Keeneland in their 4th, a mile and a half on the turf for three-year-olds in MSW company with Ken & Sarah Ramsey's Billy's Kitten.  Originally part of a strong entry the other half scratched and Billy went off as the short-priced 1/2 favorite.  Tracked the leaders to the turn and then blew by in the lane to score with my double investment. 

I ran third in back-to-back races at Woodbine and Belmont before my BET of the DAY in Woodbine's 8th and feature.  This was an entry level allowance going a mile and a sixteenth, and to me Nipigon looked every bit the 6/5 program favorite.  DRF analyst Ron Gierkink remarked in his analysis that Nipigon, "....lays over this field...." with the only drawback being that he had only two races since he last ran here in November 2014.  But that best-of-75 bullet work convinced me he was rady to roll here and any of his last three Beyer figures - albeit they were from non-recent races - would win this for fun.  He was also Jim Bannon's BEST of the day.  Tracked the leaders to the turn, moved handily and collared the leader turning for home.  While you would say they "dueled" through the stretch, it was clear that Nipigon's rider wasn't asking for his absolute best and he edged clear in the final sixteenth as simply too good for this field.  He didn't pay a lot, but I collected nearly $30 on my final winner of the day. 

In Belmont's feature, the Affirmed Success, my pick Logi's Vengence lost all chance at 2/1 when blocked through most of the stretch - second under the wire.  And in Keeneland's closing day feature, the Grade 3 Bewitch going 1 1/2 miles on the turf Orlanda wired the field under Julian Leparoux while my upset pick, Songoficeandfire (8/1 in the program, but bet down to 5/2 at post time) moved boldly on the turn but flattened out to be third under the line.

Saturday April 30

As a racing fan you love days like today - the first race on my sheet had a post time of 12:35 pm and the last race went off at 11:10 pm!  I had arranged to meet my racing buddy Jim Anderson at the track today and while that has always made the day more enjoyable, he has recently become much more interested in handicapping and following the races.  Today he had his own selection sheet and last night he emailed me a comparison of where we had selections in the same race.  Many of those events saw us land on the same top pick, but there were several where we differed.  I responded that I was MOST looking forward to not only sharing the day's experiences with him but comparing thoughts about the races.  It was a great day with Jim as we spent nearly the entire day talking about racing and handicapping.  And at the end of the day we had cashed tickets on nearly thirty (yes, 30) races - granted he's a place & show player at this point, but still, we had a lot of smiles throughout the day.  Here's how it played out.........

Right off the bat I was in the win column with the opener at Tampa.  Dickets looked to be the short priced favorite.  He'd run in tough New York races before shipping down to Tampa to break his maiden and then come right back in 2-lifetime company for a $16K tag.  He ran back in a 3L $16K race and was beaten only a length.  Next was a turf experiment, again but this was for $25K 3L runners and he was a sharp second.  Today he was back on the main track and plunging to the $8K level for three-lifetime horses.  He collared the leader turning for home, dueled to inside the 16th pole and then edged clear to win at even money.  Our first bet locally was on the turf and Lay It Down looked to be the best in the field.  He stalked the pace to the stretch, dueled and just missed, 2nd - the first of MANY close but no cigar finishes on the day!  I had handicapped TEN different tracks for the races today, and while the bulk of my selections came from the "big" tracks I also had a few plays at the next level, one of which came in the 2nd at Parx.  Extrasexyexotkminx had been a best-of-the-rest 2nd in her last, a maiden special, where the winner had drawn off by over fourteen lengths.  She looked much the best here.  AND, the barn added blinkers, a 43% win angle!  She went right to the front and won by a pole without ever being asked!  Less than fifteen minutes later we were checking out the monitor broadcasting from Toronto and the second from Woodbine.  Occasional View was my top choice in this six furlong dash for trainer Mark Fournier.  He has SIX different angles in Jim Mazur's Woodbine 40% Club listing, the most important of which for today was that when top rider Eurico DaSilva is on board he wins at an astounding 71% clip.  DaSilva had Occasional View stalking the pace into the lane then let her run and she responded by drawing off for my third win in my first four selections.

And the best part about this one, she'd gone off at a juicy 5/2 price and I'd tripled the bet - I'd cash for over $50!  I had two selections from upstate New York at small Finger Lakes, but when I tried to make the bet, Gulfstream wasn't taking bets from there.  No worries, I opened my Xpressbet app on my phone and made both the bets - and they were streaming live on another horseracing app I have so I was able to watch.  The first, Rumplesteelskin was last at a huge 30/1.  At Parx I liked Californnia Wildcat who was the only runner who'd not tried 2-lifetime company previously, but he was well out of the money when 6th at 5/2 odds.  Next was a claiming sprint on the turf at Laurel.  I liked Came Back who was a multiple winner on the course and had traveled this six furlong distance previously.  It was unusual that many of his rivals in here had not run on the grass, and most that had were still looking for their first turf win.  He pressed the pace through the turn, swung out three wide and edged clear into the lane.  But the rail runner would not go away.  Looked like he'd be a narrow winner, but at the furlong marker the rail runner had come back and now had a head in front!  REALLY???!!!  But Came Back did just that and came back, fighting to the regain the lead.  Inside the 16th pole he was again on even terms and the two of them went at it.  It was one of the most exciting stretch runs of the day and as they flashed by the wire it was way, WAY too close to tell.  But as I said to Jim, I think we lost that one, but the angle of the camera was not the best.  Didn't help that the camera immediately flashed to the #2 (the other horse) as they jogged around the turn.  Then came the slow motion replay.  And at the wire, again, it seemed like we were not the winner.  Pretty certain we were second.  But then the camera switched to the #7 (Came Back)......hold on a tic, that's a good sign.  They showed the slow motion again and I was really hesitant to believe we'd won, then the official photo came up.........

WHOOOO HOOOOO!  Even though he was just 5/2 and it was a minimum bet, it was one of the most thrilling and rewarding victories on the afternoon!  Of course Jim had no hear-pounding reaction because he'd bet Came Back to show :)  Unlike a couple of weeks ago when I came out to Gulfstream and I only had two live selections I had nearly half a dozen today, but my choice in the 3rd scratched.  The fourth at Woodbine saw Kelly Bird press the lead to the stretch as the 6/5 favorite before weakening to finish third.  My longest skid of the day continued when Gemini One was second at Finger Lakes behind a 77/1 winner!  WOW.  Cheering For Al was 4th at 5/1 at Belmont; Strike Right Now was the 8/5 favorite at Woodbine, and after a wide trip moved to an open lead into the stretch before being outfinished - 2nd.  Know Your Customer was a fading 6th at Gulfstream and Wicked Freud was a disappointing 4th at 2/1 while going 4-wide over the Belmont turf.

April 27-30 Highlights - Part 1

The sixth at Woodbine was a non-winners of 1 allowance going six and a half furlongs.  I'd noticed when Woodbine first opened that speed had dominated through the opening weeks over the new Tapeta surface.  But to be fair, nearly all the races were super-sprints in distance of five furlongs and five and a half furlongs.  Now that the races were stretching to longer distances and going two turns as well I'd noticed the track was playing much more fairly, and if anything was favoring pressing runners.  In this spot I liked Songs and Laughter who was the 9/5 program choice.  Two weeks ago I had won with Conquest Calvary who was coming off a layoff and had looked like either a MUCH the best runner on talent alone, or a money burner after running second in four races.  At the top of the stretch that day he'd been on even terms with Songs and Laughter, but Calvary WAS much the best as he drew off to score while Songs and Laughter was a best-of-the-rest runner-up.  Today it was a "hidden" drop in class because that race had been a non-conditioned allowance, where runners with more wins could get in.  Today you could not have won ANY allowance races to enter.  Eurico DaSilva should get a good trip right behind the early leaders I thought.  But Songs and Laughter broke sharply and was quickly in front.  DaSilva, I'm sure knowing he was on the best horse, just let her go.  She set moderate fractions of :23 and change and :47 and change.  When that half mile time flashed up I knew we were home free.  She drew off like a Breeders' Cup champ against her rivals today.  Another triple investment and another winner!

Cashed for nearly $30!  Right back at Belmont with a Todd Pletcher runner, Vandalize.  One thing I've become "better" at, I think" is in recognizing that the "best" bet on any given day is not necessarily in the feature race.  Such was the case here where Vandalize was my Belmont Best.  Vandalize was a $240K sales grad and obviously had talent.  He had run sharply in his debut without winning, but that was also the issue....that race had come in February, of 2015!  As I wrote in my analysis, anyone who wanted to take a stand against a short-priced favorite off such a layoff would get no argument from me, but I thought he looked much the best.  He'd been working sharply and the DRF stats showed Pletcher as a 35% winner with long layoff runners (which I'd known).  Then I read in the DRF analysis that over the last two years Pletcher had entered thirteen horses off a layoff of a year or longer and won with SIX of them!  Good enough to make him a prime-time play for me.  I expected him to break sharply from the rail under John Velazquez and wire the field but instead, after indeed breaking sharply he was outrun through the opening quarter.  Hmmmm, that's not the way I thought this would go, maybe I misjudged how good he was.  But Velazquez gave him a clever ride, allowing the two price horses to duel while he waited patiently to mid-turn.  He eased Vandalize out three wide for clear run and set sail for the wire.  MUCH THE BEST!  And I had my seventh on the day!

At Tampa I thought I'd be a "smart guy" and go against leading rider Antonio Gallardo who was on my second choice Distorted Type.  That one had the ten post and the best figures but I thought Koala Queen could surprise as she'd only been out twice on the turf and won them both and jockey Daniel Centeno had been on Distorted Type last time for trainer Jamie Ness - a trainer he rode for often - and today he'd switched to Koala Queen!  Well, 'Queen was bet down to 6/5 and Distorted Type floated up to 7/2.  Centeno gave my horse the worst ride in the history of mankind (ok, maybe a slight exaggeration!) while Gallardo was in the clear and sailed home as much the best.  My son Jeff texted that he'd just logged on to play the races and "....what were they thinking, Gallardo at 7/2!"  Yeah, tell me about it.  Sigh.......At Woodbine Field of Courage was 2/1 and stalked the leaders, cruised up easily and ready to run by.  But as they straightened for home she bobbled and lost her action for just about a stride or two.  Recovered, but now another had jumped to the front with a smooth run.  They battled to the wire, but second best in a very tight photo.  Oh the margin for error in racing is so slim sometimes!  Speaking of which, in the feature at Gulfstream, the Miami Mile, a Grade 3 event I thought Middleburg looked much the best.  He was a nice 2/1, but Jockey Joe Bravo had him too far back behind a loose-on-the-lead Ramsey colt AND got pinned inside with now where to run.  Finally got free and was absolutely F-L-Y-I-N-G.....PHOTO, again....

Yes, second, again.  Sigh.  The 7th at Belmont provided me with a good example of what Jim and I had talked about earlier in the day.  I had told him that he would discover, now that he was following the races more closely, that he would find winners in races where when he looked over the field he'd be able to say, "hey, I know that horse and his story."  In New York this looked like an innocuous entry level allowance.  But what perhaps many did not know, in spite of looking at the past performances, was the whole story on Todd Pletcher's Rally Cry, my choice.  Earlier in the winter in a weekday feature allowance Rally Cry had faced Shagaf, who came with a lot of hype.  Both were exiting impressive maiden wins.  That day Rally Cry had all kinds, and I mean ALL KINDS of trouble in a short five horse field while Shagaf cruised home with a clean trip on the outside.  It was such a troubled trip that when Rally Cry was next seen, facing Shagaf again, but this time in the Grade 3 Gotham I went with Rally Cry.  Again he did not have a smooth trip as he was wide over the off going while all the winners sailed along inside that day, like Shagaf who was just up in time to beat a longshot.  Well, Shagaf is off to the Kentucky Derby next Saturday and here's Rally Cry.  He was patiently handled, much as Vandalize had been, eased out at the top of the stretch and edged clear to score at a very generous $7.20 payoff leading me to cash for almost $40!

In the eighth at Woodbine, champion Lexie Lou was returning home and I thought she would run very well in spite of facing others with stakes-laden resumes.   She was a fair 9/5 but didn't fire, third in a five horse field.  But I was back in the winner's circle when Jump Jive an Wail rallied from well off the pace to catch the long time leader as the even money favorite at Laurel.  The race unfolded just as I had projected it and I had my ninth winner on the day.  At Belmont, their feature was the Elusive Quality on the turf going seven furlongs.  It was wide open I believed, so I went with Bill Mott's Mosler who'd earned a career best figure winning THIS RACE last year.  And I thought he had excuses in each try since.  Turning for home at a big 6/1 he was in front.  But I knew, after pressing sizzling fractions of :21 and change and then a wicked :43 and change half mile that the distance was too far.  Weakened late, but still a courageous third.  That would have been a "day-maker" win.  At Laurel Big Timer was third when closing, but not good enough at 5/2 and Miz Graycee was a HUGE disappointment at 3/5 in my first pick from Los Alamitos, third behind a $50 winner.  Next up was Gulfstream's co-feature, the Powder Break Stakes.  In my analysis I'd written that jockey Joe Bravo should be going for a sweep of the stakes races, but I was against him in the second stakes race, but thought that trainer Christophe Clement WOULD win both ends - the first with Middleburg and the second with Notte d'Oro.  As I told Jim prior to the race, I thought we had an outstanding shot to win because there were at least four who wanted the lead and we were a stalker with a good late kick.  About five minutes before post time as we walked to our seats I said to Jim, "....you now what worries me, it's just "track logic" here - when there is a race with multiple front runners, I've seen it happen so many times that all the jockeys take back but one and that one wires the field; AND one of the speedsters has Bravo up who I went against here!"  The gates opened, and you have to know how this plays out......yes, Bravo was allowed to "walk the dog" through slow fractions on the front end, our horse came running late, but couldn't catch the loose-on-the-lead front runner as Bravo won and paid nearly $8.  But I was able to recoup some lost winnings in the finale at Belmont.  Conquest See Ya had been my top choice in his debut a couple of weeks ago at Woodbine for trainer Mark Casse.  But he'd broken slowly as the favorite and run third in a short sprint.  Today he was here at Belmont, moving synthetic-to-turf, stretching out to six furlongs and adding blinkers.  Casse wins at nearly 30% with the "blinkers on" angle and has scored with four-of-ten runners going synthetic to turf over the last two years.  Conquest See Ya was also the DRF's Mike Beer's "BEST" of the day.  He pressed a sharp pace - much like Mosler had - into the stretch (:21 and change, :45 flat), but unlike that one he drew off impressively in a sharp final time of 1:07 and change!

And the best part was he had gone off at 3/1!  I was cashing for nearly $45 on my tenth winner!  At Laurel Nucifera was a big 5/1 and I really liked him, but he ran to his odds when 7th.  But I closed out the live racing with a sharp win at Woodbine in their finale.  This was a claiming event going five furlongs so you know it would probably be a front runner.  And top rider DaSilva was on a sharp front runner with the rail.  BUT.....trainer Justin Nixon was a Woodbine 40% Club member with runners making their start off a layoff.  Over the last two seasons horses doing that would have earned you a return of nearly $50 profit on $2 bets.  Tevez was from the Nixon barn and he looked to sit the perfect stalking trip behind DaSilva's horse who probably would have company.  But when they broke from the gate, just like in the Powder Break, there was DaSilva loose on the lead!  Sigh.....but as they turned for home Tevez was gathering up momentum on the outside and DaSilva was imploring his horse to get to the wire........soooooo close but in the end, WE WIN!

The better than 2/1 odds paid $6.80 and I would cash out for nearly $35 on my eleventh win!  Jim filmed my final live video clip of the day in the paddock and we headed to the parking lot.  But both of us had late bets, especially with a focus on Opening Night at Churchill Downs.

When I got home I checked out the first set of four late races on my sheet and watched all four lose - Judy Judy Judy second at 3/5 in the Churchill opener, Precious Time third at Golden Gate, Hazards of Love nothing at 8/5 in Churchill's second and Better Bet led all the way to deep stretch before fadin in the 6th at Los Alamitos.  I watched some TV with Kim and then returned to the computer to watch the last few races on my sheet.  There were three stakes races from the five races left and I had high hopes in all of them.  The first was the featured California Chrome from Los Alamitos.  I really liked Uncle Lino here.  He had raced in three straight graded stakes for 3yo at Santa Anita against the best in the west and run 2nd, 3rd, and 4th.  The drop into a listed stakes here made him the pick.  AND he was Brad Free's BEST Bet.  He went to the front and all the way down the long backstretch he was being hounded on the front end.  With the long Los Al stretch I knew this wasn't a good thing :(  As they turned for home here came not one but two stalkers to challenge.  But Uncle Vino dug in and held them off all the way to the wire!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOOO!

My triple investment would return nearly $35 to my Xpressbet account!  At Golden Gate the Grade 3 San Francisco Mile was wide open.  But I liked Hall of Fame Richard Mandella's Bal a Bali despite the wide draw (post twelve).  She was flying wide through the stretch in a 3-way photo, third at 9/5.  Next up was the feature from Churchill Downs, the six furlong William Walker.  It had poured down rain at Churchill spoiling their opening night affair, but there looked to be a big crowd who didn't seem to care :)  In this spot I made Toews on Ice my BET of the Night.  First of all, he'd been on the Triple Crown trail early on, and had been a best-of-the-rest second in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity in his 2yo finale behind one of my Kentucky Derby horses, Mor Spirit.  Second, he was unbeaten in one-turn sprints, like this.  And third, he was sent out by trainer Bob Baffert.  Two years ago when I'd done a Churchill Downs handicapping project and used Jim Mazur's 40% Club book, Baffert was in the club with a huge 67% win rate with sprinters at Churchill Downs.  His early speed also would help him take advantage of the way wet tracks typically play.  Sure enough, he pressed the leaders 3 wide down the backside and I could tell the rider had a ton of horse under him.  They turned for home and for just a minute I wondered if he was good enough, but then he found another gear and he was the easiest of winners!

Paid what I thought was a more-than-fair $4.20 so I'd cash for over $40 into my online account :)  The next race was rained off the turf so I passed, but Jim's horse won - pretty sure he had that one as he'd made all his bets ahead of the races.  I had to wait over an hour and a half from the William Walker win to my next-to-last bet of the night, a maiden special sprint where I liked High Heeled Girl.  I was watching the streaming video from Churchill and in the paddock their handicapper Joe Kristufek, mentioned the weather and how he'd gone winless so far - that's not a good way to start off the meet.  Then he said, "....hopefully I get get off the schneid with High Heeled Girl...."  Really, he likes my horse?  But she rallied up three wide and edged clear late to win!  My fourteenth score of the day.  I was nearly certain I'd get number fifteen in the finale where Full Scope was the LONE Speed on the rail and dropping in class.  But right away I smelled trouble when he was pressed by a longshot into the turn.  Probably would have won anyway had it been six furlongs instead of seven, but he weakened late to be third.  Still, on the day I'd won with nearly 40% of my picks, and it was a very good day.  I put together how Jim and I had done in our "head-to-head competition" to top off the day..........

April  27-30 Highlights - Part 2

Sunday May 1
A remarkable week of racing concluded with two more big wins.  When I'd begun handicapping the Saturday card and had gone to the Woodbine website I'd seen in their "News" that multiple stakes winning Caren was running in the Sunday feature.  I had won with her multiple times last year and knew she was unbeaten on the main track, so I made note to bet her.  Then on Friday when I was looking on Gabby Gaudet's Twitter account for a link to her picks for Saturday I noted a tweet where she mentioned that top jockey Trevor McCarthy could have a big weekend as he had several live mounts on Saturday and was riding the ageless Ben's Cat on Sunday.  I love that guy!  So, since I was going to bet both of those I went online to see if anyone was running at Belmont that was of interest and sure enough, in their Sunday feature one of my favorite fillies, and one of the best turf sprinters in the country, Lady Shipman was running!  OK, I'm going to play all three I thought.  As Sunday rolled around I began to wonder if I should maybe just watch after so much racing action on Saturday.  With the big winning percentage I'd barely been in the black for the day and I didn't want to come out behind for the weekend.  Not that anyone would know or care, except me, but still I knew it would bother me.  But in the end I decided that I would play as originally intended.  I went into my Xpressbet account to make the first wager on Ben's Cat when I remembered that over the last three years in his comeback race I'd bet on Ben's Cat and he was always second, then won his next start.  Maybe I'll bet win and place I thought.  I actually looked for the "Place Bet" tab in the wager window but then I thought, no, I'm a win bettor - play the way I play and let the chips fall where they may because if he DOES win and I split my investment I'd be so irritated!  About half way through the day I went online to watch and as they came out of the turn Ben's Cat was wide and about five off the leader, but he was rolling.....this is going to be close!  UP IN TIME and at a generous 2/1 price, I'd cash for $30!  NICE!!!!!!!!

Around 5 pm I logged on to watch the next two races and make the wagers.  As the analysts talked about Caren at Woodbine, and she was a prohibitive 3/5, I began to have that "nagging feeling" about her 2016 debut when I'd seen her run at Tampa.  Granted it was a turf race and she was better on the synthetic I thought.  But she'd not looked good at all.  Still, I stuck with the bet.  She pressed the pace, glided up to the lead and just where she would burst away last year, she was all out to hold the lead.  She fought courageously, but was nailed in the final strides (inside in the blue cap in photo below).

Now it came down to Lady Shipman who I'd made my "BET of the Day."  One reason I'd preferred her over Caren in the wagering decision was that two of the runners she'd face scratched, so she only had three others to beat.  This would mean she'd be a very short price and as I flipped screen to the live NYRA feed I knew that even if she won I didn't think I'd profit on the day.  Sigh.......  The first thing I noticed was Lady Shipman was a prohibitive 1/5.  No surprise.  But then I noticed how dark the screen was.  What's the deal?  Then I saw it when the camera zoomed in on her in her stable.  It was pouring down rain.  Uh oh.  Now we have multiple "issues."  I was willing to over look that today she was going six furlongs instead of her usual five or five and a half - despite the fact that this is a HUGE difference in turf sprints; and I'd been willing to overlook that she was making her first start after travelling half way around the world to run in Dubai - and it is not at all uncommon when American runners come back from competing in the Dubai World Cup that they need a race even if there is an extended break before racing again here.  But it had only been about six weeks.  Hmmmm, and now it's a soaked course?  Then the NYRA analysts come on and begin talking about her and they begin to discuss trainer Kiaran McLaughlin and announce that his barn has been ice cold without a winner in twenty days - wow, how may things can line up against me here!  I began to consider changing and/or canceling the bet.  And then, much like the Ben's Cat play I thought, if she wins, like I think she will - convincingly - I'll be so irritated.  So I left the bet.  They broke out of the gate and right away I knew, I JUST KNEW, I'm in.  Jockey Irad Ortiz is looking around at the other three fillies and his body language was screaming, "is anyone trying to run with me because I have a TON of horse under me!"  She opened up without ever being asked through the lane and ran away by nearly a pole.  And the most remarkable thing.......somehow in an ultra-short field of four fillies, this multiple stakes winner - who had been second against older males in the Grade 1 $1 million Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint had been sent off at a huge 1/2 price in a $100K listed stakes.  How can she pay over $3 against three listed stakes also-rans?  Who knows, but the racing gods were with me and suddenly I've added a 2-for-3 winning day and over $15 in profit!  WHAT A GREAT Week it was!

Sunday May 1