And They're Off!
After finishing off a successful Gulfstream meet at Florida Derby Day, I was anxious to get back to the business of handicapping the races and move to a more national focus. This handicapping project will have two primary sections - from today until early June we'll be on the "Triple Crown Trail" as the three-year-olds move to the Kentucky Derby and then through the second two legs of the Preakness and the Belmont. Along the way I'll be playing the races nationally and looking for the best plays in all the major stakes races around the country while the home track takes a back seat with their spring-summer schedule. The natural break for the project will come in mid-June when Kim and I are off on our next big adventure, a two-week cruise-tour of Alaska and the Canadian Rockies. We'll be back the end of June and that will open up the Breeders' Cup Championship Season of racing with all the major preps along the way until the World Championships in late fall.
So with the beginning of a new racing season I also moved to a new online platform, Xpressbet. I have no complaints with my TwinSpires account and service, but one of the main reasons I first began using that program over Xpressbet was that the majority of the year races were run at Calder Race Course, owned by Churchill Downs and TwinSpires. Now ALL racing is run through Gulfstream which is an Xpressbet affiliation. So I could continue to use TwinSpires and watch & bet the races with no additional benefits, or I could switch to Xpressbet and let my points build up from both on-track and online wagers. This is particularly important because the new system introduced by Xpressbet allows your points to be converted at better than 1x1 the more you wager. When I tried to sign-up I discovered I had an account. Then yesterday I discovered I did not know my username or password. So today, after several phone calls I was very courteously helped to activate my account; made my first deposit; and in less than an hour I was betting at Keeneland! With the weekend's big slate of races I had considered waiting until Saturday to play, but today was Opening Day at Keeneland and I have always seemed to have pretty could handicapping selections here, so I worked through the races yesterday and found solid selections in seven of the ten races. The first race, while not a big money-maker, immediately justified playing today. At Gulfstream over the winter season any 3yo maiden race with a Todd Pletcher is an automatic - even more certain when they are first time starters in a MSW event. Well, at Keeneland in the spring it's time for the juveniles to begin running. And here any Wesley Ward 2yo, especially a first time starter is always LIVE. So in the opener there was not one but two - both fillies facing the boys. And while both looked strong, it was Big City Dreamin who looked particularly sharp with a series of very quick works. The crowd knew and bet her down to 2/5 favoritism. The gates opened and she was immediately in front. She was five clear in deep stretch and was ridden out to a clear victory! One for one at Keeneland and for my Summer/Fall Project AND on my Xpressbet account. Whoooo hoooo!
The second was a good illustration knowing your tracks and trainers. From opening day through the final weeks of the meet I saw Slan Abhile run four different times. From the first time I saw his pp's I was against him, just looked like the type who wanted to be close, but didn't want to win. And that's the way he ran, faltering on every occasion, and twice at a short price. But in two of his starts he ran into a very hot horse, so he had some excuses. The second factor was that I know owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey point their horses for both the Keeneland Spring and Fall meets. With Slan Abhile dropping in class today I was sure that the Ramseys were shooting for a win. Still, I couldn't get past the many times I'd seen Slan Abhile have every opportunity and not finish the job so I went in for only the minimum. The crowd sent him off as the 3/2 favorite. He pressed the leaders three wide into the turn and as they turned for home he was immediately confronted by a challenger. They dueled to the 16th pole and then the Ramsey color-bearer drew off - TWO for TWO!
I passed the third. In the fourth I was right there in 4th thru the turn at a big 12/1 before stopping. And in the fifth I thought I had the winner. Speed had been playing well all afternoon and my pick was Paid Up Subscriber who was on the front end and looked to have plenty left when they turned for home. But inside the final furlong the long layoff she was coming off of caught up to her and she weakened to be third. In October 2014 I had tabbed a Pletcher first timer on the turf, Circus Performer and he'd won from way off the pace paying over $11. He'd been off for over a year before returning this winter. I thought he look set for a big effort today over a course he'd already won on. Castellano gave him the "GO" signal on the turn and he blew by horses while wide. But for some reason he continued out in the middle of the track some TEN wide and gave back all the ground he'd made up as they straightened for the wire - evenly in 7th under the line. The 7th was going to prove to be the deciding race on the card. My BET of the DAY was in this Maiden Special for 3yo fillies and it was Conquest Serenade trained by Mark Casse. First of all, this Woodbine-based trainer had had a spectacular fall meet here and had done well at Gulfstream. But most especially it was the debut race by Conquest Serenade that pointed her out. She had pressed the pace from the get-go, dueled through the stretch and ended up second, beaten a respectable four lengths, but was daylight clear of the rest of the field. That alone would make her the pick. But then I caught it....the winner, Go Maggie Go had come back last weekend and won the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks! Uh oh! I went prime time on her! The gates opened and she was quickly up on the early pace despite the wide draw. But after the opening quarter mile and into the turn the 30/1 longshot was at least half a dozen lengths in front. Then jockey Jose Lezcano made his move and she glided up to challenge and put that one away. But immediately a 12/1 stalker made her move. She drew even with Conquest Serenade and as they passed the furlong marker she put her head in front. I didn't think she was done and sure enough, inside the final 16th she surged and got back in front in the shadow of the wire! As they had gone into the gate (and she tossed Lezcano as they tried to load her!) she had been hovering at 9/5 and 8/5 odds. But the late money came in and knocked her down to the solid chalk. Still, when the payoff of $5.00 flashed on the board I was collecting $50 and guaranteed to have a winning day on the first day of the new racing season!
I passed the 8th and waited for the featured Grade 3 Transylvania on the turf for 3yo fillies. I thought it was wide open, but still I opted to support Chad Brown & Javier Castellano on Converge. She was the lone graded stakes winner in the field and had won two of three. She was a deep closer and trailed early, then tried to come up the rail, but was checked in mid-stretch. Not sure if she'd have won, but that certainly didn't help. The winner was ridden by Emma Jayne Wilson and that had caught my eye, but not enough to seriously consider the filly. Big payoff as she wired the field and paid nearly $15. Passed on the finale so for the day I was 3-for-7, which is a big 40%+ and I had a profit on the day! Tomorrow there are a dozen graded stakes with three big cards with Derby and Oaks prep races!
So with the beginning of a new racing season I also moved to a new online platform, Xpressbet. I have no complaints with my TwinSpires account and service, but one of the main reasons I first began using that program over Xpressbet was that the majority of the year races were run at Calder Race Course, owned by Churchill Downs and TwinSpires. Now ALL racing is run through Gulfstream which is an Xpressbet affiliation. So I could continue to use TwinSpires and watch & bet the races with no additional benefits, or I could switch to Xpressbet and let my points build up from both on-track and online wagers. This is particularly important because the new system introduced by Xpressbet allows your points to be converted at better than 1x1 the more you wager. When I tried to sign-up I discovered I had an account. Then yesterday I discovered I did not know my username or password. So today, after several phone calls I was very courteously helped to activate my account; made my first deposit; and in less than an hour I was betting at Keeneland! With the weekend's big slate of races I had considered waiting until Saturday to play, but today was Opening Day at Keeneland and I have always seemed to have pretty could handicapping selections here, so I worked through the races yesterday and found solid selections in seven of the ten races. The first race, while not a big money-maker, immediately justified playing today. At Gulfstream over the winter season any 3yo maiden race with a Todd Pletcher is an automatic - even more certain when they are first time starters in a MSW event. Well, at Keeneland in the spring it's time for the juveniles to begin running. And here any Wesley Ward 2yo, especially a first time starter is always LIVE. So in the opener there was not one but two - both fillies facing the boys. And while both looked strong, it was Big City Dreamin who looked particularly sharp with a series of very quick works. The crowd knew and bet her down to 2/5 favoritism. The gates opened and she was immediately in front. She was five clear in deep stretch and was ridden out to a clear victory! One for one at Keeneland and for my Summer/Fall Project AND on my Xpressbet account. Whoooo hoooo!
The second was a good illustration knowing your tracks and trainers. From opening day through the final weeks of the meet I saw Slan Abhile run four different times. From the first time I saw his pp's I was against him, just looked like the type who wanted to be close, but didn't want to win. And that's the way he ran, faltering on every occasion, and twice at a short price. But in two of his starts he ran into a very hot horse, so he had some excuses. The second factor was that I know owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey point their horses for both the Keeneland Spring and Fall meets. With Slan Abhile dropping in class today I was sure that the Ramseys were shooting for a win. Still, I couldn't get past the many times I'd seen Slan Abhile have every opportunity and not finish the job so I went in for only the minimum. The crowd sent him off as the 3/2 favorite. He pressed the leaders three wide into the turn and as they turned for home he was immediately confronted by a challenger. They dueled to the 16th pole and then the Ramsey color-bearer drew off - TWO for TWO!
I passed the third. In the fourth I was right there in 4th thru the turn at a big 12/1 before stopping. And in the fifth I thought I had the winner. Speed had been playing well all afternoon and my pick was Paid Up Subscriber who was on the front end and looked to have plenty left when they turned for home. But inside the final furlong the long layoff she was coming off of caught up to her and she weakened to be third. In October 2014 I had tabbed a Pletcher first timer on the turf, Circus Performer and he'd won from way off the pace paying over $11. He'd been off for over a year before returning this winter. I thought he look set for a big effort today over a course he'd already won on. Castellano gave him the "GO" signal on the turn and he blew by horses while wide. But for some reason he continued out in the middle of the track some TEN wide and gave back all the ground he'd made up as they straightened for the wire - evenly in 7th under the line. The 7th was going to prove to be the deciding race on the card. My BET of the DAY was in this Maiden Special for 3yo fillies and it was Conquest Serenade trained by Mark Casse. First of all, this Woodbine-based trainer had had a spectacular fall meet here and had done well at Gulfstream. But most especially it was the debut race by Conquest Serenade that pointed her out. She had pressed the pace from the get-go, dueled through the stretch and ended up second, beaten a respectable four lengths, but was daylight clear of the rest of the field. That alone would make her the pick. But then I caught it....the winner, Go Maggie Go had come back last weekend and won the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks! Uh oh! I went prime time on her! The gates opened and she was quickly up on the early pace despite the wide draw. But after the opening quarter mile and into the turn the 30/1 longshot was at least half a dozen lengths in front. Then jockey Jose Lezcano made his move and she glided up to challenge and put that one away. But immediately a 12/1 stalker made her move. She drew even with Conquest Serenade and as they passed the furlong marker she put her head in front. I didn't think she was done and sure enough, inside the final 16th she surged and got back in front in the shadow of the wire! As they had gone into the gate (and she tossed Lezcano as they tried to load her!) she had been hovering at 9/5 and 8/5 odds. But the late money came in and knocked her down to the solid chalk. Still, when the payoff of $5.00 flashed on the board I was collecting $50 and guaranteed to have a winning day on the first day of the new racing season!
I passed the 8th and waited for the featured Grade 3 Transylvania on the turf for 3yo fillies. I thought it was wide open, but still I opted to support Chad Brown & Javier Castellano on Converge. She was the lone graded stakes winner in the field and had won two of three. She was a deep closer and trailed early, then tried to come up the rail, but was checked in mid-stretch. Not sure if she'd have won, but that certainly didn't help. The winner was ridden by Emma Jayne Wilson and that had caught my eye, but not enough to seriously consider the filly. Big payoff as she wired the field and paid nearly $15. Passed on the finale so for the day I was 3-for-7, which is a big 40%+ and I had a profit on the day! Tomorrow there are a dozen graded stakes with three big cards with Derby and Oaks prep races!
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