April 16

Apple Blossom Weekend - April 15/16

The Grade 1 Apple Blossom highlighted the Friday action, but it was a day of close calls with only one winner for me.  The day started off with Union Jackson wiring a solid $100K AOC field at Keeneland but then it was one miss after another as Privy Council was third at 3/5, Apologynotaccepted was second at 1/2, I Will Score 2nd at 3/2 in the Bachelor Stakes at Oaklawn, Heart to Heart led to the final fifty yards but was nailed late, 2nd in the Grade 1 Maker's Mark Mile at Keeneland at a big 3/1 price and finally Untapable disappointed again when fading to fourth at 4/5 in the featured Grade 1 Apple Blossom.  But the day was highlighted by our Florida Panthers rebounding to win Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs in front of Kim and I at the arena. 

April 4-14 Highlights

Jenny Wiley Day / Arkansas Derby Day

I wanted to go to the races live but again went back and forth.  Finally deciding it would be a good day to go in spite of a selection sheet that wasn't "loaded" with picks.  You can certainly tell the Championship Meet at Gulfstream is over as after going through the local card I could only find two marginal selections.  Compare that to even a weekday card would find five or six selections.  But this made the decision of where to sit an easy one, in the Silks Simulcast Center.  I arrived at Gulfstream about 45 minutes before first post and unlike the winter where I would probably find one of the last parking spots, today I had my pick.....OF THE FRONT ROW!  What a difference the good horses make.  I picked up my ticket for my carrel and then made my way over to the Xpressbet desk where I needed to combine my new online account with my current rewards account at Gulfstream.  The lady was very helpful and pointed out I had over 60,000 points and when I reached 65,000 I'd be eligible for a $75 check, but if I waited to reach 80,000 points I'd receive a $100 reward.  That's my goal and with the online account I should get there sometime this summer.  As she was doing the work to create my new combined account I noticed on the banner next to her desk that it mentioned one of the perks was that you got free past performances.  With the Twinspires account these were Brisnet past performances which are good, but I prefer the DRF.  I had looked on the Xpressbet page but had not found this link so I asked.  She showed it to me and as she explained it lo and behold the new account includes DRF past performances.  That may not seem like a big deal, but for someone like me that plays all the time it will be a big savings.  The cards are much more affordable online than buying the print version, and when purchased in bulk packages, as I do, they are even less expensive.  Still, on the average every two to three months I am paying $79.95 for a new set of past performances.  Even if it's every three months, that's nearly $350 annually that will now be FREE!  I won't ever see that money, but knowing I'm saving it is a pleasant perk.  So I headed to my monitor and desk and looked up at the monitors.  I got settled and then headed outside to make a couple of intro videos and was back about ten minutes before post time for the opener at Keeneland.  The race was a nw1x entry level allowance going a mile and a sixteenth for three-year-old fillies and on paper it came down to two.  The lightly raced Inheritance figured to be the favorite, but I liked Dream Dance who was coming in here off a sharp second in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks.  As they hit the far turn the favorite was giving way on the lead, but I was near the back beginning to move, but with the short stretch to the first finish line, it looked like I would not have enough time.  As they turned for home Dream Dance had moved into third but still had a lot to do.  But then, and only watching the highlight video below will provide you with a true explanation, the filly found a new gear and just blew by to be up in time. 

The price was short considering she was the second choice, but it was fair in my opinion.  With my double investment I would collect $25 to start the day!  The first of the two Gulfstream selections was next, a five furlong sprint and Big Distinction was the lone speed and first off the claim for a barn that was winning with those at a 34% clip.  Right to the front, a daylight lead at the furlong pole.  As I filmed I even said, "...my first winner at Gulfstream..." only to watch him get nailed in the final strides as they ran past me on the rail.  THAT is the difference between the Championship Meet and the Spring/Summer Meet in a nutshell.  Sigh.....Back inside where Chevy's Pharoah was 7/2 at Oaklawn but faded to be 8th after pressing the pace into the far turn.  Last weekend I'd played a few races on the Opening Day card at Woodbine, but had been uncertain because I'd read they had changed the surface to a Tapeta synthetic track.  I had felt, after my handicapping project there last summer that I had a real "feel" for Woodbine.  I had in fact done very well there after compiling nearly 100 wins, a 33% win average and a big $2.12 ROI last summer/fall.  But I didn't do well last weekend with limited picks.  I read this past week that the new surface played to speed, and that made me even more confident about my choice in the second, Omar who was THE speed of the race.  It was also a plus that the race was a short five furlongs.  He burst out of the gate under hottie Emma Jayne Wilson and wired the field for my second win.  Cashed for nearly $20!  The third at Keeneland provides a good case study in what makes my handicapping different from what the "professional" and/or "value" handicappers do.  For those guys and gals, it's about finding the most likely winner at a fair price.  If that winner is not going to offer you value then you pass the race or you wager less on a better price.  The numbers "say" that in the long run you make more money that way.  To be fair, I played that way for a short period of time, but got tired of watching the horse I thought would win, actually WIN while I held a worthless "value" ticket with a better price.  So for me the question is simply, who is going to win?  If I believe they have a big enough edge to warrant a wager, that's the bet.  The more confident, and/or the price then determines how much to wager.  So in today's third race it was a sprint for three-year-old maiden fillies.  It was very, very obvious who should win, the program favorite Kareena who was listed at a prohibitive 3/5 in the program.  She'd been a best of the rest second behind a filly slated to run in tomorrow's Grade 3 feature while finishing in front of the show filly who not only had already come back to win but had been SIXTEEN in front of the rest of the field.  Oh.  As I wrote in my analysis, I wasn't going to make any money, but she was going to win.  As expected she was 1/5 at post time, but she was TONS the best.  Through the far turn she was under a strangle-hold from jockey Paco Lopez but still ran :21 and change.  Into the stretch he let her run and she drew off as she pleased for my second winner on the day! 

I had tripled the bet so I cashed for nearly $20 again.  Coin Broker was the tepid 9/5 favorite in the 2nd at Oaklawn but made a belated run without threatening the winner to be fourth.  Then Whateveryouwant was second at Aqueduct at 2/1.  He had looked like the lone speed but the rider decided to rate off the longshot front runner who wired the field while uncontested.  Wow.  The fourth at Aqueduct was one of the most satisfying wins of the day.  If you followed my Gulfstream adventures you know I wrote on several occasions that while I respect NY handicapper Andy Serling I do NOT agree with his handicapping, or attitude.  The third was a MSW turf route and the program favorite, Cloontia was an obvious play-against to me.  She was already an 0-for-4 maiden, strike one, and had faltered as the favorite here last time out, strike two.  But for me it was not only that she lost as the prohibitive 6/5 chalk, but top rider Javier Castellano had been on her and as they turned for home she had no response, not even close.  She doesn't want to win, that seemed obvious.  Was there an alternative?  YES!  Chad Brown excels with first time starters, ESPECIALLY on the turf.  And he had one here in Call Provision.  So as I'm watching the pre-race analysis from Aqueduct Serling is going on and on about how good Cloontia is and that you "can't tell how good the Brown first time starters are this time of year."  Say what?  Here's a guy that is almost always against the chalk simply because it's the chalk and he likes the 4/5 favorite who to me is an OBVIOUS loser?  I will so enjoy beating him.  They leave the gate and right away trouble........Cloontia goes right to the front, gets an uncontested lead and sets moderate fractions.  Meanwhile Call Provision breaks slowly, is quickly over half a dozen lengths behind and will have to rally into a slow pace.  This can't be good.  As they hit the far turn my filly has yet to make an impact while Cloontia is coasting along.  Into the stretch I've improved to be fourth but Cloontia is still sailing along.  I honestly had the thought run through my head "....you know you don't want to win...." and then Call Provision - just like in the Keeneland opener earlier - hit another gear and not only collared the short-priced favorite, but blew by to win by daylight!  Take that Mr. Serling! 

And at a generous 2/1 price I was cashing for well over $30!  NICE!  My second and last selection at Gulfstream was up next.  This was an entry level allowance going 8 1/2 furlongs on the turf and I liked Lucky Kitten who was stepping up in class after rattling off two in a row going wire to wire.  She looked to be the lone speed and already earlier today a winner had wired a turf route.  Right to the front, led to deep stretch and was caught late....second at 9/5.  Ironically my pick was the ONLY front runner NOT to hold on over the turf all day locally.  Sigh......At Woodbine I had a nice price play in Trip Over The Line in a 3-lifetime claiming spot.  I thought she would improve off of her last and she took the lead at the furlong pole, but having had to go eight wide into the stretch proved to be the difference as she was second on the wire by a very narrow margin at 9/2 odds.  At Keeneland I supported multiple graded stakes-placed Eskenformoney from the Todd Pletcher barn.  As I made the selection a little red flag went up in my head.  Why?  Last winter I'd backed her in her maiden win but had noted that day that the field was very weak.  And I'd been against Eskenformoney several times because I thought she was overrated.  Was that still true?  I dismissed this because Pletcher nearly always has his comeback runners primed for a big effort and she was dropping out of a fourth place finish in a Grade 1, $1 Million race to run in a second-level allowance.  Struggled all the way around the track at 6/5, finishing near the back in eighth.  Oaklawn's fifth was a second level AOC race going two turn.  It looked like a very evenly matched field, but Raagheb intrigued me.  Throughout her career he'd always run very sharply, earned good numbers and if not winning, he'd been close and in the money with the lone exception of a turf experiment a couple races back.  Then last time out, here in a similar spot he'd been the 5/2 favorite and had just stopped.  And stopped badly.  That race was SO out of character it was one of those that in my opinion you could "draw a line through it" and perhaps get a fair price as he returned to form.  He was 5/1 in the program but as they approached the gate he'd floated up to 8/1.  Oh my.  As they moved through the first turn and down the backside he was mid-pack and moving fine.  They hit the far turn and Raagheb still seemed to be waiting to run.  Saved ground into the stretch and not that far off the leaders.  Jockey Joe Rocco gave him the "GO" signal and he split horses at the sixteenth pole, collared the leader....dueled....WIN!  And check the price out - 10/1 were the final odds!  Paid $22.60 and I would be collecting over $50! 

Right back in Woodbine's 6th with Conquest Calvary.  One of two things would happen here - he would be an overbet favorite that lost again, or he was simply too good for these.  He'd burned a lot of money last year when running second several times, but after a win his most recent (in November) had been in a stakes race.  What swayed my opinion was that he was trained by Mark Casse and anytime Casse sends out a horse owned by Conquest Stables at Woodbine it's a 40% Club play.  Conquest Calvary dueled into the stretch and it looked like it should have set the race up for a strong finisher, but as they turned for home I had been right - he was simply too good for these.  Drew off with a flourish to score! 

Tripled the bet so I collected nearly $30 more on my SIXTH win of the day!  In Keeneland's Grade 3 Ben Ali I thought the lightly raced JS Bach might steal it at a price for Todd Pletcher and Javier Castellano.  10/1 in the program he was bet down to 4/1.  Pressed from the outside to the far turn, then faded to 8th.  In the next a Keeneland I liked Miss Ella in the Giant's Causeway, a turf sprint.  Her lone turf try had been a sharp second to the ultra-talented Lady Shipman.  She was fanned eight-wide into the lane and was fifth at 5/2.  The 7th at Aqueduct was their feature, the Plenty of Grace Stakes for older fillies & mares going a mile on the turf.  In the winter of 2014 I had bet Chad Brown's first-time starter Mrs McDougal and she'd been scintillating in victory.  I'd followed her ever since and she'd won the Grade 2 Lake Placid as a 3yo.  Today she returned off a layoff while dropping out of multiple graded stakes efforts to run in this listed spot.  She looked MUCH the best to me.  She coasted just behind the two longshot leaders to the turn, went by willingly and was a daylight winner, handily holding off the strong closing second choice on the board! 

I had tripled the bet so her even-money payout generated another $30 plus return!  The next three races were "smart plays" by me as I went with a runner I thought had a chance, at a price, with a minimum investment.  Jennifer Lynette was second in Woodbine's Star Shooter Stakes after leading all the way to the final fifty yards; She's A Bootsy Too was a good 4th at 5/1 in Oaklawn's Instant Racing Stakes; and Synchrony was a sharp 3/1 in the Grade 3 Lexington at Keeneland - one of the two last 3yo preps for the Kentucky Derby.  Now it was time for the BET of the DAY for me.  On February 13th I documented the story of how Tepin had been the winner of the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Mile, as a filly beating the boys, and I'd told Keith when he asked for horses to put on a trifecta ticket that she not only wouldn't win, but wouldn't hit the board.  But in February I thought she looked much the best and reluctantly - hoping my opinion on BC Day wasn't accurate - had made her the BEST of the Day.  She was sensational in winning the Grade 3 Endeavour.  Then on Tampa Bay Derby Day when I was in Tampa with my father-in-law Ed I again made her the BET of the Day in the Grade 2 Hillsborough.  She and jockey Julian Leparoux had run with ice water in their veins as Todd Pletcher's Isabella Sings blew out to an EIGHTEEN length lead down the backside, only to be inhaled confidently by Tepin in deep stretch.  So today she moved into Grade 1 company.  Would she regress today?  I'd seen both her first two efforts and I thought that like most thoroughbreds this third start off the layoff would probably be her best yet.  Still, there were two European runners who were "X" factors.....how to bet this?  I felt pretty confident I was going "all in" with a $100 WIN bet, but as I considered this I just couldn't get myself comfortable enough to make that wager.  So I resorted to what I've done in many similar instances.  When I bet the three previous races I also bet $50 to WIN on Tepin.  Now with post time approaching I was "ok" with going back to the windows to get a second $50 WIN ticket.  How is this any different you ask?  Well, I can only tell you that there have been occasions when I make that first bet and then something tells me "that's enough."  It's a very esoteric thing about playing the races that you only get with experience....at least that's what I tell myself :)  Tepin was 1/5 through most of the betting which was the "right" price for her chances, but at post time she floated up to a "generous" 2/5.  She tracked two longshots into the far turn and then without jockey Julian Leparoux asking she gently moved alongside the 60/1 leader into the lane.  He flicked his wrists and the response was instantaneous - Tepin burst to a two length, three, four, five, six length lead.  In the final sixteenth Leparoux was standing in the irons and she was galloping out under the wire.  I mention this because in spite of not running hard the entire way she set a stakes record.  WOW.....ultra-impressive yet again, and I was rewarded again. 

I collected $140 - that's a NICE profit on a filly that was way, WAY, WAY the best.  By the way the post times fell I thought this would be the last race I'd see live before heading home.  I'd watch the last three stakes selections from Oaklawn once I got back to the house.  But on the desk just next to mine I had the live feed from Oaklawn going and as Tepin crossed the wire they were about to go into the gate for the Northern Spur Stakes, a mile and a sixteenth for three-year-olds.  The field looked to be full of promising young colts, but I was very interested in one of them.  On Tampa Bay Derby Day one of my wins had come with a Todd Pletcher maiden who was coming off a layoff.  Decorated Soldier had debuted at Saratoga - any 2yo who debuts here must be highly regarded by their connections and that's often an indication of some talent.  On that day he'd been fractious before entering the gate then stumbled out of the gate.  In spite of these facts he was a sharp fourth.  So, at Tampa I tripled the bet and he ran away from the field in a very impressive showing.  I thought at the time that he was destined to be a "good one."  The fact that off a maiden win, at Tampa, Pletcher had shipped him to Oaklawn to try winners for the first time in a stakes race indicated to me that he too must have seen something very promising.  I thought this was the time to make a value play and go for a big win!  Decorated Soldier took some money but still was a big 3/1 price as they left the gate.  He stalked the leaders to the far turn then Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez made his move three wide.  He forged to the lead and had a narrow advantage.  But the rail runner had saved valuable lengths through the turn and wasn't done yet.  They battled to the wire, but I knew.  Decorated Soldier had been in front from the furlong marker and he wasn't letting anyone by.....WIN! 

The big $8.60 payoff coupled with my triple investment meant I'd cash for well over $60!  S-C-O-R-E!!!!!  I filmed a short clip on the apron for both these wins, with my new Xpressbet hat on and headed to the car with nine wins on the day and still two strong plays left to go. 

On the way home Jeff texted and called to ask about how much I really liked Cupid in the Arkansas Derby.  I told him I liked him enough to make him a strong bet and hoped he'd be "the one" for the Kentucky Derby.  He asked if I'd seen the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap and I said no, I was just pulling up at home and was going to watch.  I opened up the video replays and clicked on the Oaklawn link to the 9th race.  On Breeders' Cup Saturday when I'd watched American Pharoah win the $4 Million Breeders' Cup Classic, here, as my BET of the Weekend, I'd been surprised at the 33/1 runner-up, Effinex.  But he was ridden by Hall of Fame So Cal-based Mike Smith.  Effinex returned off that effort to win the Grade 1 Clark at Churchill Downs in late November.  He'd run last time out as the favorite in the "Big Cap" at Santa Anita but was second behind a runner named Melatonin who had been a big price that day.  The two analysts on DRF.com had both agreed that his race prior to the Big 'Cap coupled with that win might indicate he WAS that good.  I didn't buy it.  I thought Effinex was compromised by a speed favoring So Cal surface and coming off a layoff.  Back to a "more fair" track here and second off the shelf would give him a chance to rebound.  But most telling to me was that Mike Smith was willing to fly to Arkansas to ride.  Uh oh.  I went "prime time" on him.  He tracked his rival to the far turn and I could tell, I KNEW.....Smith was riding with supreme confidence and had a ton of horse.  As Melatonin's rider asked him to sprint for the wire Smith was sitting chilly and glided by.  They ran together into the stretch but I was certain this was all over but the shouting.  Smith gave a little encouragement and off Effinex went.  He blew home under a hand ride and I had my tenth win of the day. 

A more than fair $5.40 payoff led to collecting over $50 to add to my multiple winnings on the day.  Cupid disappointed in the Arkansas Derby and so I'm still without a Derby horse.  But for the day, a glorious day at the races, my numbers looked like this:

23 Selections / 10 WINS - 43%

Profit $125

April 16th Video Highlights