Three big sets of stakes races across the country - Keeneland, Aqueduct, and Santa Anita - set the stage for a huge day of racing with the focus being the preps for the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby. And at the end of the day, what did we learn? Little, if anything! The first thing was a confirmation and came as no surprise - Songbird will be THE BET of the Weekend on the first weekend in May when she should roll in the Kentucky Oaks. She has yet to take a deep breath and it's clear from watching the "best" other fillies in the country it would take a major problem or major sudden spurt in ability for any of the top fillies to challenge her, much less beat her. On the Derby side of things, we learned nothing, except that it will be highly unlikely that I'll make a significant wager on the Derby. The Bluegrass at Keeneland was won by a colt who obviously relishes the surface in Lexington; the Wood in New York was won by a three-race "veteran" who nosed out an 80/1 maiden on the wire who shipped from California; and the Santa Anita Derby was won by daylight by a runner who was not even on the board in the prep for the race and before that was beaten convincingly by Nyquist - the Florida Derby winner who won't get the 1 1/4 miles of the Kentucky Derby. So, how did MY day play out?
I went back and forth about going or not going to the races live - it was Closing Night at the arena for our playoff-bound Florida Panthers. I knew the game would be a sell-out and I did not want to be making a last-minute run to the arena, so I knew I'd miss nearly all the big featured stakes races. By the end of the day Friday I felt pretty sure I would go, but Saturday I decided against it, so I played all day on my new Xpressbet account. I handicapped six race tracks for the day: Aqueduct, Keeneland, Oaklawn, Santa Anita, Tampa, and Woodbine. I had nearly thirty selections and while most were program favorites I was pretty sure I had some solid investments, and a few nice price plays as well. At Keeneland in their opener Sonoma Crush was the obvious choice and was even money at post time, but could do no better than fourth as my third choice won at 7/1 - should have seen this as an omen of what was to come. At Tampa, You Bought Her laid over the field and was a prohibitive 3/5 favorite. She came running late, but way too late, second. Two Weeks off was a dismal sixth in Keeneland's second and in the first graded stakes action of the day, Todd Pletcher's Madefromlucky engaged in a stretch duel with Kid Cruz, after he'd led all the way to the stretch, and was outfinished - second at 9/5. I finally cashed a ticket at Tampa in the first of their Florida Festival Stakes races, the Sophomore Filly Turf. Life Imitates Art had won the Grade 3 Dania Beach at Gulfstream two back and today was facing state-breds. An obvious pick. I was surprised she was a generous 8/5 at post time. She sat mid-pack to the turn then blew by as much the best.
My double investment returned nearly $30 and I was "back in the game." In Keeneland's third Llanita was the 8/5 favorite in a maiden turf event. She'd run well in STAKES company previously, so it was no surprise at the action she took. Fourth after hanging through the lane. At Woodbine Super Colerosa was one Woodbine handicapper's BET of the Day - I had tripled the bet on this filly who was even money at post time. She rallied, but had no where to run until deep stretch, third. Rains forced the first at Santa Anita off the grass, so I passed. I got my second win the same way I got my first one - on the turf in Tampa! Go Around was lightly raced and trained by Bill Mott. This stakes would be a step-up in class, but those with more experience were either showing a down turn in form and/or coming off lengthy layoffs. He tracked the pace, made a move to the front and looked to be in complete command until a Chad Brown stakes runner came to him....one head up and one head down - PHOTO FINISH!
It turned out to be the best-priced winner on the day and I collected over $30. Last weekend on Florida Derby Day I was very disappointed that three-year-old filly star Cathryn Sophia had passed on the Gulfstream Park Oaks to run today in the Grade 1 Ashland. But I thought she looked very talented and "the word" was she was the one who would be second-choice on Oaks Day to champion Songbird. I made her a prime-time pick here. She rated off the pace, moved three wide, dueled the length of the stretch with Todd Pletcher's Rachel's Valentina to the 16th pole. Just as the daughter of champion Rachel Alexandra edged ever so slightly in front of Cathryn Sophia a 30/1 closer who'd prepped at Tampa blew by them both to win. Wow. The next day the connections of Cathryn Sophia announced they would not go on to the Oaks, but would instead focus on one-turn races, notably the Grade 3 Eight Belles at a one-turn mile on the Churchill undercard. At Woodbine Clearer View was the even money favorite and in complete control, loose on the lead in their 6th, but quit at the top of the lane - 7th. At Aqueduct Chad Brown's first time starter, Nevisian Sky, took a lot of money to be 3/1 at post time. Made an early bid into the turn, then stopped to be a well-beaten 10th. At Oaklawn Trick My Ride had led last time out at the one-mile call going further so he was the 3/2 favorite today as he dropped in price. Late rally, no threat to the winner, third. The early betting at Aqueduct on their Oaks prep, the Grade 2 Gazelle, went to Chad Brown's "other" runner and left my pick, Lewis Bay as the second choice. But by post time she was the slight 8/5 favorite. I could tell before they hit the turn I was a winner. While the other riders were asking for a full out sprint to the wire, my rider, Irad Ortiz (who was winning his fifth race of the day) was sitting chilly as Lewis Bay blew by under a hand ride then was ridden out to score.
I had tripled the bet so I cashed for over $40! Back to Tampa where Todd Pletcher's Uncle Vinny was a disappointing 7th at 2/1 odds. Right back to Aqueduct for the Grade 3 Bayshore, a seven furlong sprint for sophomore colts. I thought that trainer Jimmy Jerkens' promising colt, Unified looked best. For one of the rare moments this winter I agreed with what NYRA analyst Andy Serling said, that with only ONE RACE under his belt, Unified was not a good bet. But I thought he had a lot of ability. I liked in the pre-race analysis that former jockey Richard Migliore said he believed that Unified was a super-star in the making. He went right to the front and was much the best!
Wish I'd risked more, even though he paid $4.40 while winning a graded stakes in just his second start. It was now 5 pm and we were planning to leave for the arena a little after 6 pm. My "BET of the DAY" was the Santa Anita Oaks with a scheduled post time of 6 pm, so I wanted to watch this one last race before we left. But I could now see a problem developing. With only four wins on the day I'd really knocked down my Xpressbet balance and I was unable to add money. I contacted them and received a reply that this was because their policy was the initial deposit had to clear the bank. No problem, I knew I had some money in my Twinspires account. But when I switched over to make an early bet I found out that Jeff had been playing today and lost every race, dwindling the account to only $15. But at least here I could add some funds. So I did and I made the first part of the SA Oaks bet. Meanwhile I had hopes for cashing some tickets on the Xpressbet account before the Oaks. Not to be as Lady Valeur flattened out in the stretch of Santa Anita's Grade 3 La Providencia. Conquest See Ya was half of a 2/5 favored entry in Woodbine's 9th, a maiden race. But he broke behind the field and the other runner was good, but not good enough - third. At Keeneland I'd taken a chance on Dancing House at a big 7/1 price in the Grade 1 Madison - evenly to be fifth. Matt King Cole was my upset play in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial. He broke slowly but then rushed to the front. I knew I was going to have trouble when he was dueling through insane early fractions for a nine furlong race - :22 and change for the opening quarter, :45 and change for the first half. He was dueling with Todd Pletcher's Outwork, who had been my bet in the Tampa Bay Derby. The two went at it to the furlong mark and then the favorite began to make up ground. I didn't like him and he hung to be fourth - at least I was right about that. Matt King Cole held determinedly for third, but Outwork was even more of a fighter as he won by a diminishing nose to an 80/1 maiden shipper from Santa Anita who was FLYING up the rail. Time for the Santa Anita Oaks. The only question was the post position on the rail AND the mud. Otherwise Songbird was a standout. Her slowest race in her six race career was better than the BEST race any of today's rivals had ever run. She broke sharply and through the first turn a rank outsider tried to pressure her. No dice. She cleared in hand and coasted around the track as much, MUCH, MUCH the best. Good thing because I pounded her!
I cashed for a whopping $165, but that was only a $15 profit. Maybe we get 2/5 or 3/5 on Oaks Day? Before the left the gate for the Oaks my upset pick in the Bluegrass at Keeneland, My Man Sam came flying late at 4/1 to be 2nd behind Brody's Cause who had been favored in the Tampa Bay Derby but showed nothing. But he'd won the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity here last fall and showed how much he loved the surface with a win today. We headed out to the Panthers game and were delighted as our boys scored three goals in the first six minutes then coasted to a comfortable 5-2 win. Next up we host the first round of the playoffs! When we got home I went to the replays and watched my last six races. In the Grade 1 Carter at Aqueduct I liked So Cal invader Calculator. He rallied ten wide into the lane and was drifting outwards with the favorite Salutos Amito the length of the stretch - second, oh so close. Then in the feature at Oaklawn Terra Promessa ran to her odds as she was clearly the best into the stretch at 2/5. But in the final 16th her stable mate came running and it was a lot closer at the wire than the race had looked as it was run.
Still my prime time plus win bet was a winning one! Rebelle had a double Beyer advantage on all of his maiden rivals in the Keeneland finale so no surprise he was even money. It WAS a surprise that he was a non-threatening seventh. In the Santa Anita Derby I really thought Mor Spirit would bounce back. I was even more confident when he was Brad Free's "Best" of the day. He stalked the leader, made his move into the lane and then had nothing. He made up some ground late to edge into second, but the winner was much the best. Exaggerator had been no match for Nyquist in the Grade 2 San Vicente and had been well beaten in the Grade 3 San Felipe - the prep for the SA Derby. But he loved the So Cal mud today. In the 11th at Santa Anita it was a state-bred sprint. Pacific Heat had faced state-breds three times and had three wins! Two in stakes. I thought she was a generous price at 6/5 and she was clearly the best filly today.
I had gone prime time on her so I cashed for nearly $45. In the finale at Santa Anita I first liked Giant Expectations who was coming off of a big effort when second best. Then I saw a Bob Baffert first time starter. Hmmmm. I went back and forth and then I read Brad Free's comments, ".....the most probable winner on the card......" He doesn't make those kind of comments often! I doubled the bet. Third at 8/5 while the Baffert firster drew off as the 9/5 second choice. Sigh. So for the day I did have seven stakes wins. And for the weekend I was 10-for-36, a respectable 28%. But my winners paid such short prices that I lost money for the weekend. Next weekend is Arkansas Derby Day at Oaklawn!
I had tripled the bet so I cashed for over $40! Back to Tampa where Todd Pletcher's Uncle Vinny was a disappointing 7th at 2/1 odds. Right back to Aqueduct for the Grade 3 Bayshore, a seven furlong sprint for sophomore colts. I thought that trainer Jimmy Jerkens' promising colt, Unified looked best. For one of the rare moments this winter I agreed with what NYRA analyst Andy Serling said, that with only ONE RACE under his belt, Unified was not a good bet. But I thought he had a lot of ability. I liked in the pre-race analysis that former jockey Richard Migliore said he believed that Unified was a super-star in the making. He went right to the front and was much the best!
Wish I'd risked more, even though he paid $4.40 while winning a graded stakes in just his second start. It was now 5 pm and we were planning to leave for the arena a little after 6 pm. My "BET of the DAY" was the Santa Anita Oaks with a scheduled post time of 6 pm, so I wanted to watch this one last race before we left. But I could now see a problem developing. With only four wins on the day I'd really knocked down my Xpressbet balance and I was unable to add money. I contacted them and received a reply that this was because their policy was the initial deposit had to clear the bank. No problem, I knew I had some money in my Twinspires account. But when I switched over to make an early bet I found out that Jeff had been playing today and lost every race, dwindling the account to only $15. But at least here I could add some funds. So I did and I made the first part of the SA Oaks bet. Meanwhile I had hopes for cashing some tickets on the Xpressbet account before the Oaks. Not to be as Lady Valeur flattened out in the stretch of Santa Anita's Grade 3 La Providencia. Conquest See Ya was half of a 2/5 favored entry in Woodbine's 9th, a maiden race. But he broke behind the field and the other runner was good, but not good enough - third. At Keeneland I'd taken a chance on Dancing House at a big 7/1 price in the Grade 1 Madison - evenly to be fifth. Matt King Cole was my upset play in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial. He broke slowly but then rushed to the front. I knew I was going to have trouble when he was dueling through insane early fractions for a nine furlong race - :22 and change for the opening quarter, :45 and change for the first half. He was dueling with Todd Pletcher's Outwork, who had been my bet in the Tampa Bay Derby. The two went at it to the furlong mark and then the favorite began to make up ground. I didn't like him and he hung to be fourth - at least I was right about that. Matt King Cole held determinedly for third, but Outwork was even more of a fighter as he won by a diminishing nose to an 80/1 maiden shipper from Santa Anita who was FLYING up the rail. Time for the Santa Anita Oaks. The only question was the post position on the rail AND the mud. Otherwise Songbird was a standout. Her slowest race in her six race career was better than the BEST race any of today's rivals had ever run. She broke sharply and through the first turn a rank outsider tried to pressure her. No dice. She cleared in hand and coasted around the track as much, MUCH, MUCH the best. Good thing because I pounded her!
I cashed for a whopping $165, but that was only a $15 profit. Maybe we get 2/5 or 3/5 on Oaks Day? Before the left the gate for the Oaks my upset pick in the Bluegrass at Keeneland, My Man Sam came flying late at 4/1 to be 2nd behind Brody's Cause who had been favored in the Tampa Bay Derby but showed nothing. But he'd won the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity here last fall and showed how much he loved the surface with a win today. We headed out to the Panthers game and were delighted as our boys scored three goals in the first six minutes then coasted to a comfortable 5-2 win. Next up we host the first round of the playoffs! When we got home I went to the replays and watched my last six races. In the Grade 1 Carter at Aqueduct I liked So Cal invader Calculator. He rallied ten wide into the lane and was drifting outwards with the favorite Salutos Amito the length of the stretch - second, oh so close. Then in the feature at Oaklawn Terra Promessa ran to her odds as she was clearly the best into the stretch at 2/5. But in the final 16th her stable mate came running and it was a lot closer at the wire than the race had looked as it was run.
Still my prime time plus win bet was a winning one! Rebelle had a double Beyer advantage on all of his maiden rivals in the Keeneland finale so no surprise he was even money. It WAS a surprise that he was a non-threatening seventh. In the Santa Anita Derby I really thought Mor Spirit would bounce back. I was even more confident when he was Brad Free's "Best" of the day. He stalked the leader, made his move into the lane and then had nothing. He made up some ground late to edge into second, but the winner was much the best. Exaggerator had been no match for Nyquist in the Grade 2 San Vicente and had been well beaten in the Grade 3 San Felipe - the prep for the SA Derby. But he loved the So Cal mud today. In the 11th at Santa Anita it was a state-bred sprint. Pacific Heat had faced state-breds three times and had three wins! Two in stakes. I thought she was a generous price at 6/5 and she was clearly the best filly today.
I had gone prime time on her so I cashed for nearly $45. In the finale at Santa Anita I first liked Giant Expectations who was coming off of a big effort when second best. Then I saw a Bob Baffert first time starter. Hmmmm. I went back and forth and then I read Brad Free's comments, ".....the most probable winner on the card......" He doesn't make those kind of comments often! I doubled the bet. Third at 8/5 while the Baffert firster drew off as the 9/5 second choice. Sigh. So for the day I did have seven stakes wins. And for the weekend I was 10-for-36, a respectable 28%. But my winners paid such short prices that I lost money for the weekend. Next weekend is Arkansas Derby Day at Oaklawn!
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