Charles Town Classic Weekend
April 22 - 23
Originally when I looked over the racing schedule for the month of April it looked to me like this would be a month that I'd look past. But my schedule was light and I ended up playing the Keeneland card all week and then added Woodbine for Friday. With very limited plays on Wednesday and Thursday I only had one winner, but it was a PRIME TIME "Bet of the Day" with a Wesley Ward 2yo first-time starter. Lady Aurlia had been my top choice in a spot like this last week but scratched out to let her stable mate win. She had sharp works and the obvious Ward 2yo angle. Right to the front and LONG GONE - set a track record to boot! But this was my only winner while I ran second on two other events. For Saturday I handicapped the Keeneland, Woodbine, and Charles Town cards. I played them all online and I enjoyed a good weekend of racing! Let's see how this played out.......
Friday April 22
Today was a G-O-O-D day! This was the first racing card for Woodbine on a weekday - by the end of next month they will be running on Wednesday nights, Thursday, Friday and the weekend, but to this point they have only been running on the weekend. Local handicapper Jim Mazur has a deal with Woodbine and he posts his "Woodbine Handicapper" book on their website and offers it for free - a significant savings and I like using his 40% Club angles as well as the Blue-Chip Trainer angles. I had success last summer with my Woodbine Handicapping project so I anticipate playing Woodbine frequently over the next several months. After looking over the card I found three races where I like runners enough to believe I had a betting edge, and the first two I thought were very strong plays. In the opener an entry level allowance group were going two turns - the first route race of the meet. On the outside in a short field of five was Niigon's Legacy and she looked to easily be the speed of the field. Front runners have been doing especially well through the first few weekends of racing, but sometimes the way the track plays for sprints differs from routes. But, one of the BEST bets in racing is the angle of "LONE Speed." I tripled the bet on Niigon's Legacy. Right to the front and was never in danger of losing. Whoooo hoooo I'm on the board immediately!
I thought that considering it was a field of five and it was obvious she was the lone speed in the race, that 4/5 was a more-than-fair price. I cashed for nearly $30!The second race was a five furlong spring for claiming sprinters in restricted company of non-winners of three lifetime. #4 Mel's Ring was a very, VERY obvious play to me. First, she was the clear speed of the race, which at this short distance was going to be a huge advantage; second, she was a perfect 2-for-2 at this distance here and both came with top jockey Eurico DaSilva on board, who was up today. And third, trainer Ralph Biamonte had a Woodbine Blue Chip angle when these circumstances align: a claiming race for less than a $40K tag, with the runner making a class move and turning back in distance. When that happens he shows a huge 55% win rate. Mel's Ring was dropping out of a $40K race to today's $20K level and cutting back from six furlongs to five furlongs. Typically a "turnback" would be moving from a route to a sprint, but considering all the other angles in here, it just added to the appeal. She broke a step slowly, but was hustled to the front before the opening quarter mile was covered. Clear by daylight into the far turn and no one challenged her to the wire!
Again, like the opener, considering the multiple angles that pointed her out and the short field, I thought 4/5 was a more than generous price. When I handicapped the races for today I tried to be very selective with my choices for the day. As a result I didn't have anything at Keeneland until their fifth - a nine furlong event for non-winners of two lifetime. Now, typically when I play a restricted event like this the handicapping is easy........is there a runner making their first start in conditioned company? If not, then I might consider a runner dropping from a higher priced nw2L if they have decent form. But I rarely play a runner who has multiple losses in conditioned company. This is why in racing you "never say never." Owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey point for the Keeneland spring and fall meetings and it means a great deal to them to be the leading trainers at these prestigious meets. You will often find they drop horses lower than they should to pick up a win and/or claim runners with the express purpose of running and winning here. Such was the case here with Inspire Courage. Scanning down this runner's past performances it couldn't be a coincidence that his best career effort was HERE at Keeneland, at this distance in 2-lifetime company. Michael Maker trains and top rider Javier Castellano was in the saddle. The crowd bet him down to even money as you know they saw the same things I did. He pressed the pace and looked well in hand as they turned for home. But he was all out to edge clear in the final 100 yards. Still, a win's a win! THREE in a ROW!
Right back in the sixth at Keeneland. We were on the turf for Maiden Specials, sophomore colts. Much like the fifth, this was a "break the rules" kind of selection. It is rare that I will play a maiden race with a runner who has on multiple occasions run second and third, especially if they have disappointed as the favorite. Such was the case with Sir Dudley Digges. He had run second or third in five of six starts, including back-to-back seconds as the favorite. But there were these mitigating circumstances.......he had been drawn wide in his previous two AND had earned field best speed figures in both. But, more importantly, like the fifth, he was running in the iconic colors of Ken & Sarah Ramsey. Jockey Julian Leparoux is not a rider I trust, but he is always at his best when he rides at Keeneland, and he was up today. I also thought we'd get a more than fair price. There was little speed in the field, so Leparoux went right to the front. He stole the race - gotta give him credit for slowing the pace to a glacial :50 for the opening half mile and an even more tepid 1:16 for three quarters of a mile. No one was catching him as he turned for home - ran away.
And the price was indeed generous as he paid $8.80 allowing me to cash for over $20 with my FOURTH consecutive win of the day! I finally missed when Bear's Pearl ran evenly at 5/2 in the 8th at Woodbine, sixth under the wire. Back to Keeneland in the 8th, an entry level allowance sprinting on the turf. These kinds of races are typically not my best races to handicap so I usually have to feel very good about a runner to take a shot. I found Late Spring who was listed at a big 6/1 in the program. I admit that this was one time the price played into my handicapping because I thought she had a real chance at a price. She had a solid 6/2-2-1 turf sprint resume; Corey Lanerie is having a really good meet and he was up today. But best of all there looked to be a lot of speed in the race and she was a strong finisher with an outside draw. As the field sprinted through the opening quarter they were going very quickly and there at least half a dozen bunched near the front while Lanerie was lingering near the back. As they hit the far turn he hit the accelerator and she began picking off horses. She was at least eight wide into the lane but had a full head of steam. In the final sixteenth she drew even and was JUST up in time. And check out the price.......
WHOOOO HOOOOO! I am guaranteed to have a winning day! I had tried to be conservative with my selections and bets today, so after the two triple investment scores to start the day I'd only been wagering the minimum, but in spite of this I was guaranteed to win at least $50 and change today, and my "BET of the Day" was up next, my final bet of the day. The Grade 3 Doubledogdare for older fillies and mares was the feature at Keeneland and the star attraction was I'm A Chatterbox who had run in five straight Grade 1 events to close out her sophomore season. She'd won two Grade 1 events, been DQ'd from another Grade 1 and had been a strong second in the Kentucky Oaks after sweeping the Fair Grounds' 3yo filly events. Still, today she was coming off a layoff and facing older for the first time. I thought she'd been training exceptionally well and the field was not loaded with standouts - in fact there was only one other graded winner in the field and her speed figures were double digits slower than I'm A Chatterbox with all but one exception. One of the best young riders in the game Florent Geroux gave 'Chatterbox an indecisive ride - trapped on the rail into the far turn you could tell he couldn't decide whether to get into the clear, but lose ground by moving wide, or risk getting blocked on the rail trying to save ground. As a result he lost his best opportunity to do both and when she finally got clear inside she was too late, second behind a $52 winner. That would have been a nice topping to the day, but still, who can complain about going 5-for-7 and making over $50 on a Friday afternoon at the races!
Saturday April 23
I handicapped today's races with the same eye towards conservatism on selections and wagering, but when I printed out my selection sheet I had fourteen picks on the day and eleven of them were added money investments - though none were "prime time" or "bet of the day" status. And much like Friday (and unlike the first three days of the week) I got off to a quick start. In the opener at Woodbine Three Ring Circus looked to be an obvious choice. He was cutting his price tag in half and dropping into a 3-lifetime claiming sprint today. A quick bullet work over the Tapeta surface said he should be ready to run a big one. I anticipated with the five-hole draw that he'd press the inside speed, but he broke out of the gate like a shot and was quickly in front. He was in hand turning for home with a daylight advantage, but was pressed in deep stretch to run hard to hang on....but hang on he did and I was quickly 1-for-1 on the day.
At Keeneland Steel Cut looked like an even more obvious choice. As I wrote in my analysis, "....on class, form, and speet figures Steel Cut TOWERS over her rivals in the opener - DRF BEST Bet; won't make much money but it's a good way to start off the Keeeneland card with a win....." Sent off at a prohibitive 1/5 she led under a hand ride to the turn. A longshot circled up and I thought cut Steel Cut off as they turned for home, but she wasn't going to run with the winner, second best. Sigh......But in the second I had the winner in Successful Runner. Just like on Friday's card, the key was that this one was running for Ken & Sarah Ramsey. The bad news was that he'd had lots of chances in this 2-lifetime condition, but the good news was that if he ran to his figures - coming off a layoff - his numbers were a pole better than what any of today's rivals were likely to run. He circled up four wide under a hand ride and was much, MUCH the best! Win #2! The Charles Town undercard had several minor stakes to support their signature race and honestly it was the reason I decided in the end to play the card as there were no superstars in the Grade 2 feature later in the day. The first of those minor events came in the fourth, the It's Binn Too Long Stakes. RC's Daisy Duke had debuted with a win over this track then won a minor stakes at Delaware. In her most recent two races she was a best-of-the-rest second in stakes company behind the same filly who was NOT in today's field. She looked to be a short-priced favorite and she was at a minuscule 1/5 at post time. She seemed reluctant to want to run initially but the rider hustled her to the front. Once clear of the field she seemed to sense that she was a winner and easily wired the field under a hand ride!
At Woodbine Conquest Partygirl looked best despite drawing post twelve and having failed to get the job done as a favored first time starter last time out. But trainer Mark Casse is dangerous with ANY runner for the Conquest Stables and especially strong with second-time starting maiden runners. THe crowd bet the 'Partygirl to 6/5 favoritism and she looked every bit the part as she pressed the leader in hand through the far turn. But when asked the question at the top of the lane she had nothing and dropped back through the field like she had an anchor around her neck - 7th. Back to West Virginia and in the 6th it was The Coin Collector Stakes. The seven runners facing Bullet's Fever were either exiting a maiden win or moving up out of 2-lifetime or 3-lifetime company. Meanwhile my top choice was a perfect thre-for-three and had not only already won a state-bred stakes like this, but had won an open stakes! She was NOT the favorite and I was amazed at the way the betting went. But not everyone was fooled as she was still 4/5 at post time. This was a more than generous price considering, I thought. She went right to the front and was easily LONG GONE for my fourth win of the day in my first six selections!
I missed in The Caixia Electronica Stakes in the next at CT and then Goodoldhockeygame was second at 6/5 in Woodbine's feature, The New Providence, when in tight and steadied at the top of the stretch. Flying up the rail to just miss in spite of the trouble. The 10th at Charles Town was the Robert Hilton Memorial going seven furlongs, which is a two-turn event at this small oval. I liked Dig Deep who had just broken his maiden at Gulfstream. He was second in his debut in what has turned out to be a KEY race. The winner that day was a colt named Majesto who exited that MSW victory to be second to undefeated Kentucky Derby favorite Nyquist in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Javier Castellano had the mount today. He pressed the pace into the turn and then drew off as much, MUCH the best.
I thought that the even money price - again not the favorite - was more than generous on this colt who looks to have a bright future! That was my fifth win of the day, but it proved to my my last. I missed on the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic when Todd Pletcher's Stanford wired the field for Javier Castellano. Again, you shake your head and wonder how those two team up to win a major event and pay $9. For me personally I'd had Stanford in the Louisiana Derby a year ago and he was beaten on the wire at a big 7/1 then I'd missed with him in his most recent; but today I was off him and he wired the field in a clever ride. Finished the day a strong 5-for-14, but didn't have nearly the profit as last weekend since the "biggest" price on the day was the $4.20 I got on Dig Deep. Next weekend is Opening Weekend at Churchill Downs and begins the countdown to the Kentucky Derby! The featured graded stakes of the weekend will be locally in the Grade 3 Miami Mile so I'll be on track next Saturday!
And the price was indeed generous as he paid $8.80 allowing me to cash for over $20 with my FOURTH consecutive win of the day! I finally missed when Bear's Pearl ran evenly at 5/2 in the 8th at Woodbine, sixth under the wire. Back to Keeneland in the 8th, an entry level allowance sprinting on the turf. These kinds of races are typically not my best races to handicap so I usually have to feel very good about a runner to take a shot. I found Late Spring who was listed at a big 6/1 in the program. I admit that this was one time the price played into my handicapping because I thought she had a real chance at a price. She had a solid 6/2-2-1 turf sprint resume; Corey Lanerie is having a really good meet and he was up today. But best of all there looked to be a lot of speed in the race and she was a strong finisher with an outside draw. As the field sprinted through the opening quarter they were going very quickly and there at least half a dozen bunched near the front while Lanerie was lingering near the back. As they hit the far turn he hit the accelerator and she began picking off horses. She was at least eight wide into the lane but had a full head of steam. In the final sixteenth she drew even and was JUST up in time. And check out the price.......
WHOOOO HOOOOO! I am guaranteed to have a winning day! I had tried to be conservative with my selections and bets today, so after the two triple investment scores to start the day I'd only been wagering the minimum, but in spite of this I was guaranteed to win at least $50 and change today, and my "BET of the Day" was up next, my final bet of the day. The Grade 3 Doubledogdare for older fillies and mares was the feature at Keeneland and the star attraction was I'm A Chatterbox who had run in five straight Grade 1 events to close out her sophomore season. She'd won two Grade 1 events, been DQ'd from another Grade 1 and had been a strong second in the Kentucky Oaks after sweeping the Fair Grounds' 3yo filly events. Still, today she was coming off a layoff and facing older for the first time. I thought she'd been training exceptionally well and the field was not loaded with standouts - in fact there was only one other graded winner in the field and her speed figures were double digits slower than I'm A Chatterbox with all but one exception. One of the best young riders in the game Florent Geroux gave 'Chatterbox an indecisive ride - trapped on the rail into the far turn you could tell he couldn't decide whether to get into the clear, but lose ground by moving wide, or risk getting blocked on the rail trying to save ground. As a result he lost his best opportunity to do both and when she finally got clear inside she was too late, second behind a $52 winner. That would have been a nice topping to the day, but still, who can complain about going 5-for-7 and making over $50 on a Friday afternoon at the races!
Saturday April 23
I handicapped today's races with the same eye towards conservatism on selections and wagering, but when I printed out my selection sheet I had fourteen picks on the day and eleven of them were added money investments - though none were "prime time" or "bet of the day" status. And much like Friday (and unlike the first three days of the week) I got off to a quick start. In the opener at Woodbine Three Ring Circus looked to be an obvious choice. He was cutting his price tag in half and dropping into a 3-lifetime claiming sprint today. A quick bullet work over the Tapeta surface said he should be ready to run a big one. I anticipated with the five-hole draw that he'd press the inside speed, but he broke out of the gate like a shot and was quickly in front. He was in hand turning for home with a daylight advantage, but was pressed in deep stretch to run hard to hang on....but hang on he did and I was quickly 1-for-1 on the day.
At Keeneland Steel Cut looked like an even more obvious choice. As I wrote in my analysis, "....on class, form, and speet figures Steel Cut TOWERS over her rivals in the opener - DRF BEST Bet; won't make much money but it's a good way to start off the Keeeneland card with a win....." Sent off at a prohibitive 1/5 she led under a hand ride to the turn. A longshot circled up and I thought cut Steel Cut off as they turned for home, but she wasn't going to run with the winner, second best. Sigh......But in the second I had the winner in Successful Runner. Just like on Friday's card, the key was that this one was running for Ken & Sarah Ramsey. The bad news was that he'd had lots of chances in this 2-lifetime condition, but the good news was that if he ran to his figures - coming off a layoff - his numbers were a pole better than what any of today's rivals were likely to run. He circled up four wide under a hand ride and was much, MUCH the best! Win #2! The Charles Town undercard had several minor stakes to support their signature race and honestly it was the reason I decided in the end to play the card as there were no superstars in the Grade 2 feature later in the day. The first of those minor events came in the fourth, the It's Binn Too Long Stakes. RC's Daisy Duke had debuted with a win over this track then won a minor stakes at Delaware. In her most recent two races she was a best-of-the-rest second in stakes company behind the same filly who was NOT in today's field. She looked to be a short-priced favorite and she was at a minuscule 1/5 at post time. She seemed reluctant to want to run initially but the rider hustled her to the front. Once clear of the field she seemed to sense that she was a winner and easily wired the field under a hand ride!
At Woodbine Conquest Partygirl looked best despite drawing post twelve and having failed to get the job done as a favored first time starter last time out. But trainer Mark Casse is dangerous with ANY runner for the Conquest Stables and especially strong with second-time starting maiden runners. THe crowd bet the 'Partygirl to 6/5 favoritism and she looked every bit the part as she pressed the leader in hand through the far turn. But when asked the question at the top of the lane she had nothing and dropped back through the field like she had an anchor around her neck - 7th. Back to West Virginia and in the 6th it was The Coin Collector Stakes. The seven runners facing Bullet's Fever were either exiting a maiden win or moving up out of 2-lifetime or 3-lifetime company. Meanwhile my top choice was a perfect thre-for-three and had not only already won a state-bred stakes like this, but had won an open stakes! She was NOT the favorite and I was amazed at the way the betting went. But not everyone was fooled as she was still 4/5 at post time. This was a more than generous price considering, I thought. She went right to the front and was easily LONG GONE for my fourth win of the day in my first six selections!
I missed in The Caixia Electronica Stakes in the next at CT and then Goodoldhockeygame was second at 6/5 in Woodbine's feature, The New Providence, when in tight and steadied at the top of the stretch. Flying up the rail to just miss in spite of the trouble. The 10th at Charles Town was the Robert Hilton Memorial going seven furlongs, which is a two-turn event at this small oval. I liked Dig Deep who had just broken his maiden at Gulfstream. He was second in his debut in what has turned out to be a KEY race. The winner that day was a colt named Majesto who exited that MSW victory to be second to undefeated Kentucky Derby favorite Nyquist in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Javier Castellano had the mount today. He pressed the pace into the turn and then drew off as much, MUCH the best.
I thought that the even money price - again not the favorite - was more than generous on this colt who looks to have a bright future! That was my fifth win of the day, but it proved to my my last. I missed on the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic when Todd Pletcher's Stanford wired the field for Javier Castellano. Again, you shake your head and wonder how those two team up to win a major event and pay $9. For me personally I'd had Stanford in the Louisiana Derby a year ago and he was beaten on the wire at a big 7/1 then I'd missed with him in his most recent; but today I was off him and he wired the field in a clever ride. Finished the day a strong 5-for-14, but didn't have nearly the profit as last weekend since the "biggest" price on the day was the $4.20 I got on Dig Deep. Next weekend is Opening Weekend at Churchill Downs and begins the countdown to the Kentucky Derby! The featured graded stakes of the weekend will be locally in the Grade 3 Miami Mile so I'll be on track next Saturday!
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