Saturday June 11th
I had to wonder going into today's huge racing day, just how well could I reasonably expect to do? I was coming off an amazing 23 win day last Saturday; and had followed that up with two days at Belmont this week going 9-for-18, 50%. Seriously, the numbers have to "return to normal" at some point, and I noticed when I was finished handicapping that several of my picks - unlike last weekend - were NOT on the obvious favorite. I got tickets for Keith and I to sit in the Silks Simulcast Center and then Jim Anderson contacted me and I got him a seat next to us. Even getting the seats on Wednesday all of the individual seats with a personal monitor were gone. I got us "front row" right underneath the big, flat-screen HD screens. No problem! First post for the initial race on Belmont Day was an early 11:35 am and it was a stakes race. I had picked Cupid to win the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby off an impressive outing in the Rebel Stakes, but he gave way at the top of the stretch. He returned in the listed Easy Goer Stakes with valid excuses and was listed as the 3/5 program favorite. I bet the race online as Keith and I headed out at 11 am. We had no sooner picked up our tickets when the replay was being finished on the big screen in the paddock - fifth of five as the 4/5 favorite after pressing the pace he gave it up again. :( I passed on the next race but had the winner listed as my top selection. NOT the way I was thinking the day would go! Next up was the Grade 1 Acorn for three-year-old fillies. This was the gal's version of the Belmont Stakes for the colts. But, unlike the boys, this "third leg" of their "Triple Crown" was a turn-back to a one-turn mile. This seemed to be an OBVIOUS play into the wheel-house of Kentucky Oaks heroine Cathryn Sophia. She had absolutely dominated the 3yo filly stakes at Gulfstream this winter and both of those had been one turn events, the Grade 2 Davona Dale at this one-turn mile. I had planned to make her the bet of the day on Florida Derby Day but she passed to make her first two-turn start in the Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland. I made her the bet that day and she seemed to show she did not want any part of two turns. But on Oaks Day she surprised everyone but my son Jeff and won at over 4/1 odds. So today, the return to an established one-turn mile she would be tough to beat. Not so fast my friends! On Oaks Day, even with as impressive as Cathryn Sophia had been, I thought the most impressive performance had come in the Grade 3 Eight Belles by Bill Mott's Carina Mia. She had been on the AE list for the Oaks and Mott had publicly said he really liked her chances in the Oaks and wanted to run there. When she didn't get in she went to this seven furlong event. That day she looked to be the controlling speed but right out of the gate she was squeezed back to last. Not good. But on the far turn while settled into stride she kicked into high gear and blew the doors off the field in the most visually impressive outing of the day. This was something that even several NBC analysts remarked about on the broadcast. Today, at this one-turn mile, there looked to be little speed so I explained to Jim and Keith that I would not mind at all her going to the lead today. I thought it interesting that Mott remarked in the pre-race interviews that we had found out she could utilize a different running style to win. So how would she run today? What was the plan. I personally thought today she could wire the field. But right out of the gate jockey Julian Leparoux restrained her .... to the back of the short field. Not so sure this is a good idea. As they began to spin out of the turn post time favorite Cathryn Sophia accelerated to the lead! But then with the same burst of acceleration we'd seen on Oaks Day Carina Mia found a whole new gear and swooped up five wide and blew past the field winning as easily the best! As they came down the stretch I was snapping my fingers and whooping it up with a very loud (and obnoxious I'm sure) "Leeepppppppaarrrrrrrooooooooo!" WHOOOOO HOOOOOOO!
And best of all she'd been a generous 2/1 price so with my triple investment I was cashing for over $45! I missed in the opener at Pimlico when short-priced favorite Miss Wilby ran evenly through the lane to be 4th. In the opener at Monmouth, Tyrrhenian had earned back-to-back figures of 58 and 50 that are not stakes quality, but good enough to beat these maiden claimers. Led into the stretch, dueled and was JUST up in a photo finish at 6/5! In a five-horse field including a 2/5 entry - my choice - I ran 2nd and 3rd! Really? Only three horses to beat and NEITHER of my Woodbine picks can win. Just further ammunition for Keith's absurd claims that "no one ever cashes a ticket at Woodbine!" In the Grade 2 Brooklyn I liked the favorite Kid Cruz. I considered upping the bet when I read a couple of public handicappers said he was easily the best "single" for multi-race bets today. I wasn't so sure about that, so I kept to my original bet. He came with a middle rally then hung like day-old laundry - 7th! I was second best at even money at Churchill in a maiden sprint before getting back into the winner's circle with a turf sprint at Pimlico with even money favorite Cinder Block. Third at a nice 3/1 at Churchill then I got an easy-peasy-pie win at Monmouth. Twizzle was a Todd Pletcher runner initially but now was in the hands of top Jersey Shore trainer Jorge Navarro. Coming off a long layoff is a Monmouth 40% Club play for the barn and she ran to her 1/1 odds - right to the front and easily kissed the field goodbye for my fourth victory of the afternoon. Next up was the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps going a one-turn mile and a sixteenth at Belmont. As I'd handicapped the field, and then as Keith pointed out, this was a stellar field. No surprise if any of them won this. But I had "upset" on my mind. If you'd asked me a month ago when they'd run the prep for this, the one-turn mile Grade 2 Ruffian, what I thought of Cavorting I would have said she was not only a "TOSS" for that race but an obvious "play against" today in spite of her affinity for Belmont Park. Cavorting has consistently shown she's a star of racing when she's sprinting and allowed to settle for one run. But ANY TIME she went a mile she ALWAYS coughed it up. So I was against her in the Distaff. For the first time she showed a huge closing kick and walked with that race. Could she go even further? I thought there was a good chance that she'd suddenly discovered how to handle a route of ground and IF she could stretch out, then that late kick from last month would be devastating today. As they were mid-way on the turn she was at the back, but when her jockey - another Frenchman - Florent Geroux asked, she gave that same big response and was oh-so-impressive in drawing off to an ultra-impressive win!
And check out the price - a HUGE $10.60 meaning I was collecting well over $50 on my second Grade 1 win of the day at Belmont! I am playing Delaware today because of their feature race (more on that later) so I have a few picks there, the first of which was the 3rd a maiden claimer where Germaine's Rose was 1/2 at post time. Was making a big run when carried out about ten-wide into the lane, third. An interesting story on the next race and winner. I got up to make my next sequence of bets at about 1:40 and one of those was the opener at Arlington Park, set for 2:15 pm EST. I looked around and I couldn't find an Arlington big-screen picture. Odd. I went to the window and was half surprised that when I said "Arlington, Race 1, $5 to win on #1" that the ticket immediately came out. I've been here before where GP is not taking the signal from a track but you can play in in their online platform, Xpressbet. So when the bet went through "LIVE" I assumed there has to be a monitor with the live feed. No. All day I kept looking, even went to the other simulcast area and they too had no live Arlington races. Than goodness for the wonder of technology as I simply pulled out my smart phone, opened my Xpressbet app and watched the race on my phone. Two Minute Man was away slowly, but patiently allowed to find his stride up to the rail and he was in front before they hit the turn. Kept right on going to be LONG GONE as my sixth of the day. The rest of my third page of selections were disappointments - two thirds and a second. That one runner-up was an interesting story. Keith, who was being conservative with his betting, looked at the Form and my sheet and saw that in Monmouth's 4th race Hissy Fit was a HUGE standout. No surprise she was pounded down to 1/5 favoritism. As they turned into the stretch she was almost a pole in front. But the filly rallying was a 16/1 longshot, but she was Keith's play in a cold 7-6 exacta which was paying $45 and he had it five times. A cool $200 and change in the bank until in the final 16th Hissy Fit shortened stride and in the shadow of the wire the longshot went by. Did he box it? No. Can't even cash on a 1/5 favorite when you HAVE the 16/1 second half of the exacta. LOL. I got back into winning mode when Uno Emayo led at 3/2 at Pimlico then was life-and-death to hold on is a desperate photo. In the Grade 2 Woody Stephens going seven furlongs I thought it was a WIDE open race. I settled on Sharp Azteca who was locally based and had run huge to take the Grade 3 Pat Day Mile. But I noted that the "dangerous longshot play" was Tom's Ready who had broke his maiden in impressive fashion at this seven furlong distance, but had been on the Derby/Triple Crown trail and had run in the Kentucky Derby - but with little success. Maybe the turnback was all he needed. Sharp Azteca made his bid, got to the leaders turning for home then hung. In the shadow of the wire here comes this blur - it's Tom's Ready at 7/1 - oh my. Paid $17.60 and I am thinking I SHOULD have gone with the upset. No time for crying over spilled milk as I scored in back-to-back-to-back races. First in the sixth at Monmouth How You ran away at 3/5 in a 3-lifetime two-turn mile. Then No Distortion scored in a Delaware allowance as the 4/5 favorite, much the best. And at Arlington, their 4th was my BEST of the Day there. Rivzinthehouse had run three recent turf sprints in $25K, $50K, and $100K optional claiming events. He'd won the first two and lost the $100K only when dueling through insane :20.3 & :43.3 fractions - still she held 3rd at Tampa, a course that always favors closers. Today's $30K STARTER Optional Claiming event was a huge class drop. Looked to wire these with ease. Right to the front, kissed them GOOD-BYE and was gone at even money - a huge price considering the facts.
In Belmont's Grade 1 Just A Game on the turf Jeff called me and said he liked Celestine, what did I think? I told him she looked like many of the others, a speed type. And with it being wide-open I was going with an 8/1 closer, first time here from Europe. Celestine sat just off the pace and won at a nice 7/1 price. I texted, "did you have it?" No was the reply, I went with you - I felt badly. Lost at Woodbine - to Keith's continued cries that "nobody cashes a ticket....." when Conquest Boogaloo stopped badly. Losses at Monmouth, Arlington and Pimlico all followed, all added money plays (6th, 3rd, and 8th at 7/1, 3/1, and 9/5). Then it was time for the Grade 1 Met Mile at Belmont. The racing world might have a completely different opinion of Frosted for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin and Godolphin Stables had he not had the misfortune to be born the same year as champion American Pharoah. So he chased him all year long, but still was able to carve out an excellent 3yo season with a 9/2-3-1 record and earnings of $1.9 million. Now that Pharoah is retired he's looking to establish himself as a top older handicap runner. Big aspirations saw him sent to Dubai where he won a $250K prep race for the Dubai World Cup by five widening lengths as "easily best." No disgrace running fifth, beaten only 5 1/2 lengths in the Group 1 $10 Million World Cup last out. Today he returned to New York and if able to repeat - maybe even improve - on any of his triple digit figures from last season he could be a big time threat. I thought he was sitting on a HUGE effort and looked to get a perfect set-up from a pace flow. I made him a prime time play. He rode the rail through the turn crying to run, and when let loose on the outside, O-H M-Y.....I cannot describe in words what happened, you will have to watch the highlight video below. He was at least a furlong better than the field, under wraps while setting a new stakes record.
Best of all, he was a generous 2/1 and paid a whopping $6.70 allowing me to cash for nearly $70 on my THIRD Grade 1 win on the Belmont card - and NONE of the three were the favorite! Moments later they were off in the Obeah Stakes at Delaware Park. I'm A Chatterbox had been one of the top 3yo fillies in the country last year and had scored an impressive, runaway win in the $1 Million Grade 1 Cotillion. Her comeback race in the Grade 3 Doubledogdare had been a disappointment when she was unable to find clear running room. The drop from those kinds of races to this listed stakes was significant. She was a prohibitive 1/9 until post time when finally she was a fair 1/5. Easily the best as my BET of the Day at Delaware. Lost again at Woodbine, this time at even money, and then at Churchill at 3/1 when both ran sixth.....dismal showings. Picked up a victory at Monmouth when Delta Bluesman looked REALLY hard to go against. He wired a Gulfstream allowance two back and a listed stakes field here last time out. Today in a conditioned allowance with a best-of-30 bullet for the top trainer. The gates sprung open, he went to the front and was G-O-N-E. The $3.20 payoff was more than fair. Disappointed in the 7th at Arlington when Richie's Sweetheart looked to be the speed of the speed but couldn't get to the front and faded badly to 9th as my co-BEST in Chicago. We had discussed how long to stay at the races and it was at this point that we decided we'd hit the road for home and get there with plenty of time to watch the big race on the 65" flat screen in high definition. My only reluctance was that my BET of the Day would run while we were on the road - the Grade 1 Manhattan on the turf at a mile and a half from Belmont. The first item of note is that the DRF linemaker, who is nearly always way, WAY off posted Flintshire, my top choice, as the 2/5 morning line favorite. I sincerely doubted he'd be that short of a price considering all the facts, but he WAS the deserving favorite AND that was probably a realistic assessment of his value. He'd only run in the US twice, but both were sensational efforts and would win here for fun. The first was in 2014 he came for the Breeders' Cup Turf and was beaten a head by Main Sequence - who was in the midst of seven Grade 1 wins and an Eclipse Award. Then last summer he shipped to Saratoga for the Grade 1 Sword Dancer and was an overpowering winner while earning a huge 114 Beyer figure and winning by daylight. He'd run big when 2nd in arguably the biggest race in the world, best-of-the-rest in the Group 1 Arc de Triomphe in October and then best-of-the-rest second in the Group 1 Hong Kong Vase behind talented Highland Reel. The only, ONLY concern was the career mark of 19/5-10-1. Does he just like to be second a lot? I thought the answer was no, he has just been in against some of THE BEST runners in the WORLD. No such threats today. Didn't hurt that he got Javier Castellano today. And it was a big plus to me that he'd been in New York since April with a recent bullet work. He was away cleanly from the wide post and while sitting near the back he was not that far off the lead. On the turn he began picking off horses and I could tell as we watched the replay once we'd arrived home that Castellano was sitting on a ton of horse. He circled up as they turned for home and Castellano asked. The response was immediate and the outcome was immediately a foregone conclusion. EASY.
The 4/5 final odds were vastly better than the 2/5 DRF projected odds. I cashed for nearly $90 on my BET of the DAY without ever having an anxious moment. It was about twenty minutes to the Belmont so we fast-forwarded through the commercials and caught up just prior to post time. I thought that the last leg of the Triple Crown was a wide, wide open affair. I even remarked to Keith that if it were not the Belmont I'd probably pass. There were three things I felt confident about. The first was that Exaggerator - the Derby runner-up and Preakness winner would not only not win, but wouldn't hit the board. When I went to make my bet at GP my teller friend asked who I liked and when I made the bet I added this fact and she rolled her eyes. We'll see I thought. Secondly, I felt really confident that the winner would be a big price. And third, I thought that Destin, the Tampa Bay Derby winner would get the best trip. The field of thirteen had at least ten closers in the lineup and very little speed. He projected to sit just off the leader and get first run to the wire. With a soft pace he should be able to hold off the deep closers. As they went in the gate Destin was 10/1. The race was as though I'd sent in my vision and it was being played out EXACTLY as I thought. They turned for home and Destin made his move. Glided to the front and was quickly daylight in front with a furlong left. Oh my, I'm going to win! Now the closers were eating up ground, but I was pretty sure they would run out of room....closer, closer, WHERE'S THE WIRE! PHOTO finish as the Arkansas Derby winner came flying up. My initial reaction was "maybe" but if I had to bet I thought he caught me. The photo.....SOOOOO close. I texted Jeff and said, who did you end up going with. He sent me a text photo with his bet - se at the bottom of the picture......
Well, if I had to lose, then I was glad it was to Jeff's horse on a huge and gutsy play. I still had a few races to watch from earlier. Lost the Monmouth feature - my "Monmouth Best" when Joya Real didn't fire at 4/5 odds, but I had a nice score in the feature at Churchill in the Grade 3 Mint Julep when Cash Control looked the best off of three consecutive 90+ figures. I was surprised he was NOT the favorite, and when he opened up through a rail-skimming move into the stretch I was smiling. But then here came the 9/5 favorite....put his head in front, I fought back, PHOTO FINISH! This time I was pretty sure I DID win, and it was confirmed with a big $6.80 payoff so I'd collect almost $35.
Two final races at Belmont. The 12th was a 2nd level allowance going nine furlongs on the turf. I thought Chad Brown's Inordinate with Javier Castellano was a sneaky good pick at 4/1. He had been 4/5 in his NA debut and closed willingly but off the layoff, the continental change, and into a slow pace he couldn't get there. But the winner came right back to score over the projected favorite, Fundamental. Castellano had him perfectly placed, but as they turned for home he was walled in. At the furlong pole a small seam opened, he went for it and brushed a non-threatening runner. He closed with a rush.....PHOTO FINISH!
Check the price out - whoooo hoooo - at 6/1 I'm cashing for $70 on my double bet! The camera shows Castellano shaking hands with Chad Brown and then, "Ladies and Gentlemen, hold all tickets there is a steward's inquiry and rider's objection......" Really? They showed all the angles and there wasn't anything even remotely worth a DQ. Jeff texted and said, "they won't take him down." But the longer it went the worse I felt. Then the result, took him down - this was the "obvious" infraction. BOOOOOOO.
Lost the finale - so for the day I was a sharp 15-for-38, that's 39% and a profit of $55 on the day. Excellent results. But oh what could have been - a nose in the Belmont and a non-DQ in the next race and I'm 17-for-38 and profit of close to $200. You gotta love the races! Off for the next two weeks while we are in Alaska - at least one spot play next Saturday when Songbird returns in the Summertime Oaks though.
Belmont Fashion
In Belmont's Grade 1 Just A Game on the turf Jeff called me and said he liked Celestine, what did I think? I told him she looked like many of the others, a speed type. And with it being wide-open I was going with an 8/1 closer, first time here from Europe. Celestine sat just off the pace and won at a nice 7/1 price. I texted, "did you have it?" No was the reply, I went with you - I felt badly. Lost at Woodbine - to Keith's continued cries that "nobody cashes a ticket....." when Conquest Boogaloo stopped badly. Losses at Monmouth, Arlington and Pimlico all followed, all added money plays (6th, 3rd, and 8th at 7/1, 3/1, and 9/5). Then it was time for the Grade 1 Met Mile at Belmont. The racing world might have a completely different opinion of Frosted for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin and Godolphin Stables had he not had the misfortune to be born the same year as champion American Pharoah. So he chased him all year long, but still was able to carve out an excellent 3yo season with a 9/2-3-1 record and earnings of $1.9 million. Now that Pharoah is retired he's looking to establish himself as a top older handicap runner. Big aspirations saw him sent to Dubai where he won a $250K prep race for the Dubai World Cup by five widening lengths as "easily best." No disgrace running fifth, beaten only 5 1/2 lengths in the Group 1 $10 Million World Cup last out. Today he returned to New York and if able to repeat - maybe even improve - on any of his triple digit figures from last season he could be a big time threat. I thought he was sitting on a HUGE effort and looked to get a perfect set-up from a pace flow. I made him a prime time play. He rode the rail through the turn crying to run, and when let loose on the outside, O-H M-Y.....I cannot describe in words what happened, you will have to watch the highlight video below. He was at least a furlong better than the field, under wraps while setting a new stakes record.
The 4/5 final odds were vastly better than the 2/5 DRF projected odds. I cashed for nearly $90 on my BET of the DAY without ever having an anxious moment. It was about twenty minutes to the Belmont so we fast-forwarded through the commercials and caught up just prior to post time. I thought that the last leg of the Triple Crown was a wide, wide open affair. I even remarked to Keith that if it were not the Belmont I'd probably pass. There were three things I felt confident about. The first was that Exaggerator - the Derby runner-up and Preakness winner would not only not win, but wouldn't hit the board. When I went to make my bet at GP my teller friend asked who I liked and when I made the bet I added this fact and she rolled her eyes. We'll see I thought. Secondly, I felt really confident that the winner would be a big price. And third, I thought that Destin, the Tampa Bay Derby winner would get the best trip. The field of thirteen had at least ten closers in the lineup and very little speed. He projected to sit just off the leader and get first run to the wire. With a soft pace he should be able to hold off the deep closers. As they went in the gate Destin was 10/1. The race was as though I'd sent in my vision and it was being played out EXACTLY as I thought. They turned for home and Destin made his move. Glided to the front and was quickly daylight in front with a furlong left. Oh my, I'm going to win! Now the closers were eating up ground, but I was pretty sure they would run out of room....closer, closer, WHERE'S THE WIRE! PHOTO finish as the Arkansas Derby winner came flying up. My initial reaction was "maybe" but if I had to bet I thought he caught me. The photo.....SOOOOO close. I texted Jeff and said, who did you end up going with. He sent me a text photo with his bet - se at the bottom of the picture......
Well, if I had to lose, then I was glad it was to Jeff's horse on a huge and gutsy play. I still had a few races to watch from earlier. Lost the Monmouth feature - my "Monmouth Best" when Joya Real didn't fire at 4/5 odds, but I had a nice score in the feature at Churchill in the Grade 3 Mint Julep when Cash Control looked the best off of three consecutive 90+ figures. I was surprised he was NOT the favorite, and when he opened up through a rail-skimming move into the stretch I was smiling. But then here came the 9/5 favorite....put his head in front, I fought back, PHOTO FINISH! This time I was pretty sure I DID win, and it was confirmed with a big $6.80 payoff so I'd collect almost $35.
Two final races at Belmont. The 12th was a 2nd level allowance going nine furlongs on the turf. I thought Chad Brown's Inordinate with Javier Castellano was a sneaky good pick at 4/1. He had been 4/5 in his NA debut and closed willingly but off the layoff, the continental change, and into a slow pace he couldn't get there. But the winner came right back to score over the projected favorite, Fundamental. Castellano had him perfectly placed, but as they turned for home he was walled in. At the furlong pole a small seam opened, he went for it and brushed a non-threatening runner. He closed with a rush.....PHOTO FINISH!
Check the price out - whoooo hoooo - at 6/1 I'm cashing for $70 on my double bet! The camera shows Castellano shaking hands with Chad Brown and then, "Ladies and Gentlemen, hold all tickets there is a steward's inquiry and rider's objection......" Really? They showed all the angles and there wasn't anything even remotely worth a DQ. Jeff texted and said, "they won't take him down." But the longer it went the worse I felt. Then the result, took him down - this was the "obvious" infraction. BOOOOOOO.
Lost the finale - so for the day I was a sharp 15-for-38, that's 39% and a profit of $55 on the day. Excellent results. But oh what could have been - a nose in the Belmont and a non-DQ in the next race and I'm 17-for-38 and profit of close to $200. You gotta love the races! Off for the next two weeks while we are in Alaska - at least one spot play next Saturday when Songbird returns in the Summertime Oaks though.
Belmont Day Highlights
Belmont Fashion
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