June 6

Sunday's BEST WINS

The three days at Monmouth Park resulted in six wins from seventeen selections, a nice 35% winning average. Only one victory today however.  That's the bad news....the good news was I upped the play to a "prime time / best of the day" just before they went into the gate so I was able to make a little extra money.  When I analyzed the Sunday card of nine races I found five that I felt offered me an advantage.  When I logged onto Xpressbet this morning one had scratched....down to four plays for the day.  In the opener Divine Child was 7/5 in the program and 3/5 at post time.  Class plunger with Paco Lopez on board she towered over the field.....third after hanging through the stretch.  No bet until the 6th which was a little after 3 pm.  So I happened to be online about 3:30 and I logged in to watch the replay.  Money Game was a Monmouth 40% Club play and was a juicy 5/2 but was completely outrun by a last-out maiden winner who was 4/5 with....yes, PACO on board!  Grrrrr. With the 7th just a little over ten minutes away I opened up the live video feed.  My top pick was Upset City.  Despite being a Monmouth 40% Club angle for trainer John Mazza AND having Paco Lopez up, AND being 7/5 in the program she was 5/2 when the video first came on.  Interesting I thought.  As we got to the "two-minutes-to-post" call, I re-checked the odds and she had dropped all the way down to 4/5.  WAIT!  I went into the "Will Pays" and for both the Daily Double and Pick-3 payoffs she was MUCH the favorite.  Now the first two fillies were in the gate....yes, or no?  YES!  I clicked the "Wager" button and doubled my bet to make it a $20 WIN bet.  The gates opened and literally in two jumps she was four in front.  Never threatened as she won under a hand ride by nearly a pole.  Smart call Mr. Mark!  Too bad the price wasn't any better. 

In the last bet of the day, the featured Grade 3 Red Bank going a mile on the turf I knew I did NOT like Middleburg.  While Joe Bravo has been riding like the "old Joe Bravo" that used to rule Monmouth, especially on the turf, I had seen Middleburg at Gulfstream.  In the Grade 3 Miami Mile he was TONS the horse to beat there and went off as the short-priced favorite and my co-best of the day.  Second best behind a loose-on-the-lead longshot.  So I looked for alternatives.  Rose Brier had won three in a row, all on the front end and was the inside speed with top Maryland rider Trevor McCarthy up.  I thought he could steal it.  When the gates opened the outside longshot insisted on the lead so McCarthy was patient instead of dueling and the fractions were moderate.  Made his move on the turn to the lead, but Middleburg blew by to win.  Figures.  Ahhhhh, the track :)