Sunday June 12
After four consecutive racing days, the last three filled with stakes races and top runners throughout the Belmont Festival of Racing weekend, today I was back to my Monmouth Park handicapping project. I had handicapped this Sunday card on Friday while watching the races online. I made my plays early in the morning and then we drove up to Orlando to spend the day with Brad, Lauren, and Julie while enjoying Brad & Lauren's newly purchased first home. Really impressed with the neighborhood, their house, and how hard they've worked to turn it into a home so quickly. As I worked through the card, and perhaps it was that I was distracted with the races while I handicapped, but it seemed that this was a particularly weak card, even for a Sunday. Still, I was able to find five horses with enough of an advantage to make investments. I passed the first three races and in the fourth, on the turf in a claiming event, it was the one pick I had the most confidence in of the eleven race card. Exclusive Strike was a thirteen-time winner on the grass, dropping in class, an earner of almost half a million dollars and had top rider Paco Lopez riding for trainer Jason Servis. The two have won at an absurd 45% over the last two years. Four straight runner-up finishes was a concern but they were all against better. Go back one additional race.....it's at this level and is a WIN, HERE! Sent off at 4/5 he lacked clear running room through the turn, found a seam and shot up the rail only to be stopped dead in his tracks. Even the track announcer remarked about the "brutal trip" he had. Fourth at 4/5. Passed the fifth and then supported Tiger Bourbon in the 6th, another claiming event on the turf. This runner was a woeful 2-for-26 with TWELVE 2nd and 3rd place finishes, but he was going first off the claim for top trainer Jorge Navarro today. Claimed away from a barn with only five wins in 2016....the Navarro barn has racked up SIXTY-THREE - a major upgrade :) Multiple bullet works sealed the deal. Sent away at even money he pressed the pace to the turn then blew by to open up. But he was all out to hold on at the wire .... still, a win is a win! Doubled the bet so I collected $20. Passed again in the 7th. In the eighth it was a wild scramble with no one having any form, but Guchi Gold was a Monmouth 40% Club angle with Jose Ferrer riding for trainer Kathleed DiMasi. Guchi Gold had only been on the turf twice since January, but was a sharp second last out beaten 1/2 length and a good 3rd off a five month layoff at Tampa in January. Was well back to the turn, then began weaving in and out, between and around horses to reach third turning for home. Got to the front and just held on over my second choice, the post time favorite! Missed in the last two when both ran fourth. But for the day a steady 40% (2-for-5)....I'll take it as we head off to Alaska this week.
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