I had handicapped the Saturday Monmouth card and had gone online to get another track for the big day Saturday when I noticed that Monmouth had expanded their racing weekends to Friday. I had thought I'd checked this out and discovered they weren't moving to a three-day week until July. What a pleasant surprise. So I went through the card and analyzed the nine races. I found five races where I thought I had enough of an edge to invest, but none were strong plays. Another thing of note was that today had the first two juvenile races of the summer season, and ironically I found two of my bets there. In the opener, a MSW for 2yo I liked Truly A Moon Shot who was the lone runner with racing experience. He'd debuted over a muddy Belmont surface, pressed a swift pace and was third with daylight separation between the first and second, second and 'Moon Shot, and 'Moon Shot to the rest of the field. This kind of separation is often an indication of a strong race. He was sent off as the even money favorite and pressed the pace to the turn, then dropped back quickly, wow that wasn't much of an effort, but then re-rallied to close for 3rd. A very unusual run. I passed both the second and the third. The latter was a turf sprint and I mentioned how wide open it was but that if I had to pick I'd go with Blue Bahia who was making only her second turf start and Paco Lopez. As I watched the race I contemplated betting because the crowd hammered her to even money. But I stuck to my original plan......and watched her win for fun. In the 4th, the second juvenile race I went with Noona Mela, a Todd Pletcher 2yo. As I noted, he probably was saving his best juveniles for late in the Belmont meet, or even more likely at Saratoga. Still, Pletcher was winning at a big 26% on the Shore. Noona Mela was a fair 7/2, made a strong bid then was out-run by the top two, third again. The fourth was another pass; and the fifth was my lone double investment. I liked Pop Start who was a Monmouth 40% Club play for trainer Jason Servis for using jockey Nik Juarez. He was cold on the board early at 8/1, but was bet down to 5/2. Showed very little, sixth as my second choice - a stretch out sprinter under Lopez was an easy winner. The seventh was a turf sprint which looked wide open to me. But then I came to Creaky Cricket who had run primarily long on the turf. But in his most recent he'd closed to be third in a Tampa sprint. What really appealed to me was that the last time he'd run for a claiming tag, like today, he'd kicked away by six widening lengths. There looked to be enough speed to set up his late run. But in the pre-race analysis Monmouth handicapper Brad Thomas mentioned my pick, but he felt that there would NOT be a strong pace and Creaky Cricket would get a minor award. As they turned for home I was still mid-pack but making up some ground. Into the stretch the top two separated clear but then here came Creaky Cricket with a huge finish to be up in time. And best of all, he'd been a nice 4/1 paying $10.80!
I cashed for $27 on my minimum play and suddenly I was ahead for the day and at worst I'd lose $3 for my Friday action :) The eighth was my final bet of the day and while I thought that there was a chance that Bat Cave could win, I honest thought it was a very well-matched field where any of them could win. But, top jockey Paco Lopez was on board and as I wrote, it was a "hunch bet" because my youngest son is a huge Batman fan. As they left the gate I got a text from Brad so I filmed the stretch run live while Bat Cave was an easy winner!
Thanks Brad! See the odds? A huge 3/1 price on Paco Lopez - wow, you never know where you'll get a "gift" from your fellow handicappers. The $8 payoff generated a payday of $20 for me and suddenly, after going 0-for-3 to start the day, I'm a 40% winner and made over $15 on the day! You gotta love this racing game! Tomorrow I have fifty-four selections from nine different tracks with the BET of the Day being Beholder in the Grade 1 Vanity from Santa Anita!
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