June 4 - Penn Mile Day

June 4 - WHAT A DAY!

Indeed, what a day for cashing tickets!  When I began handicapping for the weekend's races, I knew I'd have a lot of selections, but I never would have imagined that I'd have over FIFTY bets.  And to be honest, like happens so often (in spite of my knowing better), the thought crossed my mind, "what if I don't cash any tickets and run out of money?"  I mean with fifty bets, if I went on an extended streak, I'd be out of cash before even making it to THE BIG BET, which was historic in it's own right this afternoon.  I was able to start handicapping as early as Thursday and by the time I'd finished I'd gone through nine different cards and had selections from a little before 1 pm until 10 pm at night.  There were fifty-four original selections including twenty-four stakes races - five of which were graded - five "BEST BETS" and a "BET of the MONTH" on the sheet.  But the day started out with something that was very cool for me.  When I wake up in the morning I typically watch about 30 minutes of the local news, and my station of choice is the local CBS station with "my girls" Lauren, Vanessa, and Lissette.  However, one of my former WISE students, Erica Rakow, has pursued her project's topic of broadcast journalism and became a reporter, then an anchor in Jacksonville before recently moving back to South Florida.  Now she appears on the ABC station, so it's not uncommon for me to flip over there to try to catch her doing a story live on air.  She has begun to work her way into the anchor chair on some occasions which is always cool.  Well, on Saturday & Sunday mornings the CBS Morning news doesn't start until later so we always turn on the ABC News because they start at 5:30 am.  Today when I woke up at 6 I turned on the TV and there was Erica as the anchor.  What a treat to see her first thing.  So about half an hour later I sent her a message that I was so happy to "see her" this morning.  Then, and this is the coolest part, I immediately got a message back WHILE SHE WAS STILL ON THE AIR!  For the next 45 minutes we were texting back and forth and all I could think of was how cool this was, that this news anchor, who is ultra attractive, is on air in front of all of South Florida and when she's not reporting, she's talking to me.  Very cool indeed.  Made me feel quite appreciated as her former teacher/mentor.

When Keith and I sat down at our desks in the Silks Simulcast Center at Gulfstream I told him, "Well, either I'm going to have a good day, or a lot of people are going to have a bad day with me."  I said this because when I went through all the online selections nearly every one of my picks was in the top three choices of the "pro" for that track.  The first bet on the sheet came in the opener at Churchill Downs, and it was a Maiden Special for two-year-olds.  There was little question that my selection, Thirstforlife, would be the favorite because he was the only one with racing experience.  In fact, he'd debuted on the day before Oaks Day in a stakes, the Juvenile Sprint, and run third in spite of waiting in the gate before rallying to be a good third.  Still, the field he faced that day was full of either debut runners like him and/or last out maiden winners.  There was really no way to tell how much quality was in there at this point.  But as the horses approached the gate he was 2/5.  Pretty short odds....then he dropped to 1/5.  Now we're talking really short.  Then, just as they got into the gate someone dropped a bomb on him and his odds plummeted to 1/9.  So glad I only had $10 to win on a runner with ONE race under his belt facing a field of all first-timer starters that we knew nothing about.  But the money was spot on as he sat professionally off the dueling leaders and then blew by as TONS the best.  My bet netted a profit of a dollar, one.  But hey, better than tossing it on the ground!  Within minutes I was on the rail for the opener at Gulfstream where it was a claiming event on the turf.  Easement looked like the one to benefit from an anticipated hot pace.  He was pinned on the rail as they spun out of the turn, but was able to "ease" out (LOL) into the clear at the furlong pole and run by to score. 

Only had the minimum on him, but the return was close to $15.  I shot my video intro and first two race reviews and posed with my two-for-two tickets and posted it on my Facebook page :)  My next pick was in the first of SEVEN stakes races locally as today was "Summit of Speed Preview Day" at Gulfstream.  I liked Requite who was listed at 3/1 in the DRF line, but figured to be a short priced favorite.  He had debuted with a win at Saratoga so you know he has to have some ability.  Next up he ran a sharp fourth in the Grade 1 Hopeful.  Off for several months then won back-to-back starts here, the second in a listed stakes like this.  Then back to the Spa for a start in the Grade 2 Amsterdam where he was a best-of-the-rest second.  Easily the class - would he be ready off the layoff?  He'd done it before so I had no worries.  Right to the front and was TONS the best here. 

I tripled the bet and was amazed he was 6/5 at post time (especially in light of the 1/9 2yo at CD!).  Cashed for nearly $35.  You never know when you are or are not going to get paid!  I was surprised when Bully Proof was 2nd best at Monmouth as the 1/2 favorite and then I lost again, this time at Woodbine where Klinghorn was 5th at 5/2.  But I bounced back at Churchill in the third, a claiming event going two turns.  It was a wide-open race and I thought several COULD win, but I was going with a class dropper, with a good trainer and top rider Corey Lanerie.  Stalked the pace to the stretch and took over, edging clear as easily best.  Missed in the third at Gulfstream when Arborville disappointed in The Bonita, a turf sprint.  But I was cashing again minutes later on the first of just two bets from Philadelphia at Parx.  Second Mat was third in a stakes (state-bred) at Tampa behind two Chad Brown runners and looked the best, especially with sharp works at Monmouth including a bullet move.  But he was chasing a loose-on-the-lead front runner through a pedestrian :51 half mile.  Still, no problem easing out at the top of the lane and dismissing that one as the 4/5 favorite.  Flipped channels right after the payoff to see First Charmer go right to the front in a seven furlong turf sprint.  He was caught turning for home, and actually fell a head back of the new leader, but he battled back.  Dueled to inside the final 100 yards and edged clear late.  As I turned the page following a 5th place run at Woodbine when the 6/5 favorite was outrun in a 2yo MSW event I was a very good 6-for-10 to start the day.  My phone "quacked" and it was Jeff saying, "man, you're hot today!"  Third at Monmouth at event money when Starship Thor dueled to the stretch and gave way and then I went on a SIX-RACE WINNING STREAK!  At Belmont, in the third it was an optional allowance going a mile and 3/8th on the turf.  My top pick was Achnaha.  Keith and I talked about how ironic it was to make this the top pick because she was 19/1-5-4 in her career!  BUT.....she exited the KEY Grade 3 Bewitch which had seen Al's Gal come back to romp in stakes company last Saturday, and her last three turf speed figures (87-89-86) would all win for fun.  But the 6/5 post time odds were a very short price.  Seemed too short when she trailed into the turn, but then jockey Javier Castellano hit the "GO" button and she blew by them all to win going away!  Next up was the Royal Palm Stakes at Gulfstream.  Dearest had won her first two starts, both sprints.  Then she tried the Grade 2 Davona Dale going a mile.  A decent third.  The winner - Cathryn Sophia came back to win the Grade 1, $1 Million Kentucky Oaks; the second place filly, Lewis Bay, came back to win the Grade 2 Gazelle at Belmont.  Better than a "decent" third.  Off the shelf today with three bullet works.....she made short work of them as my co-BEST BET of the Day at Gulfstream! 

Right back moments later on the simulcast television at Churchill Downs for their fifth, a claiming sprint.  When I started the analysis I was about to write how Control Stake would never last on the front end and then I realized it was only 5 1/2 furlongs.  LONG GONE at that distance.  A price horse insisted on the lead so my rider was very smart, sat patiently to the turn, blew by and was gone to the wire, holding off the closers - tripled the bet on that 1/2 shot.  At Parx I scored in their Foxy JG Stakes when Disco Chick was a pole better than her rivals.  She exited a stakes win on the Black-Eyed Susan undercard in the Skipat to run in this softer spot AND brought Trevor McCarthy from Maryland to ride.  Easy-peasy-pie at 1/5.  At Monmouth the crowd let Paco Lopez get away at 6/5 first off the claim for Eddie Plesa - they win together at better than 35% - and I was cashing for nearly $25.  And in the Monmouth 6th Shaft of Light ran like so many Jorge Navarro claimers did here this past winter.  Looks like cheap speed, but takes lots of money at the windows, goes right to the front and runs away at a short price.  Yep, happened again for my 12th win of the day.  MAN I'm have a great day.  Galina Point showed nothing at Woodbine at 4/5 before I won at Arlington in their 3rd race, an entry-level open allowance.  Dom the Bom was a multiple stakes winner in state-bred company and had dueled on the lead before getting caught late last time in open company like this.  He faced no pace pressure that I could see today and looked like a wire winner.  He was as the 4/5 favorite for top front-end rider E.T. Baird!.  Back to Gulfstream where I had a nice price on My Point Exactly in the Raymond Earl, 4/1.  Moved to the lead at the top of the lane, but was outfinished, third.  At Churchill Downs my BEST of the Day was in a Maiden Special where Annathela was exiting races that had been ultra KEY and had led me to multiple winners.  But after fighting to the front between horses into the stretch she was outfinished on the sprint home to the co-favorite, second.  That 5/2 price would have made my day.  Fifth at Woodbine with a 40% Club play - juicy 7/1 was never in it.  Then Pearl of Silk was 4/5 at Arlington and pressing the lead as they hit "the forest" as it's called there - mid way down the backside the camera briefly loses the horses through the trees in the infield.  And when they emerged, where's Pearl of Silk?  Keith is telling me "there she is in the green silks."  "We finished fifth, watch the replay, in the green silks."  I'm telling him we did NOT have green silks heading "into the forest" and when we watched the replay from the start we saw her drop out, didn't finish the race :(  The string of misses continued when Paco Lopez was a HUGE 7/1 with a 40% Club play at Monmouth and was a good third.  I returned to the windows with a winning ticket finally after Running Cat was off slowly at Gulfstream in a claiming sprint, but recovered, went to the front and wired the field. 

Penn Mile Day - Part 1

Another 3/5 favorite, but I did triple the bet.  Massena was a good 4th as a 9/1 upset pick at Belmont, but Hogy disappointed in Churchill's Mighty Beau Stakes, a turf sprint, as the 7/5 favorite.  FLYING late, but wide all the way and just missed.  Monmouth provided another loss when No More Music was 8/5 and made a bid, then weakened to be fifth.  And in Gulfstream's Sea Lily, my pick Dogwood Trail took all the money to be the 8/5 favorite but was outrun through the lane after pressing the pace, 6th.  In the 8th at Belmont I wanted to try to beat Camelot Kitten who was a Ken & Sarah Ramsey colt coming off a double-digit price win in Churchill's Grade 2 American on the Derby undercard, but truly he simply looked best.  Jockey Irad Ortiz saved all the ground to midway on the turn, eased out for clear running and then there were four of them across the turf at the 16th pole.....JUST up on the wire! 

I doubled the bet so I cashed for nearly $30.  I liked the upset in the Grade 3 Aristides at Churchill and went with Barbados.  A big 8/1 price at post time he ran on belatedly for a non-threatening fourth place finish.  Missed AGAIN at Woodbine when Mozambique Gold was third at 2/1.  Keith began ranting loudly that no one ever cashes a ticket at Woodbine!  Everyone in the simulcast center was staring - well, ok, that may be an exaggeration.  Next on the sheet was the feature from Monmouth Park, the Crank It Up Stakes - a five furlong turf sprint.  I liked Brandy's Girl who was listed at 7/2 but was destined to be the favorite I thought.  She was coming off a sensational win five weeks ago here when she set a sizzling :21 flat opening quarter and then an unreal :42.4 for the half mile....and she kept on going to win!  Post eleven was no bargain but I trusted top jockey Paco Lopez.  Cleverly ridden as two inside fillies insisted on the lead so he rationed out the speed of Brandy.  Midway on the turn he cut her loose and it was, as track announcer Frank Mirahmadi said, "lights out" for the race. 

I had doubled the bet so I cashed for over $15.  Missed at Arlington when Silver Lode was never a threat, fifth.  Then in the first bet at Santa Anita Mr. Roary was a huge 3/1 when loose on the lead.  Caught in the final strides on the turf, second.  That would have been nice.  My best of the day on the Jersey Shore was in their finale, a maiden special with Shuffle Up.  Wayne Catalano is a 40% Club member with two angles here - first time starters like this one and any time Paco Lopez rides.  Sent off at even money she was checked sharply out of the gate and lost all chance.  WOW....that's not right.  The horse that cut her off was DQ'd but to not avail for us.  The eleventh at Gulfstream was my BEST of the Day.  I know, Dearest was the co-BEST earlier, but if I had to pick, this one would rate as the 1 vs. 1a for Dearest's race.  Awesome Banner had won both the Grade 3 Hutcheson sprinting here and the Grade 2 Swale, sprinting here.  Then his connections got Derby fever and tried the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth going two turns.  Stopped like he was shot on the far turn.  Enough of that, right?  No, on to the Tampa Bay Derby.  Again, stopped badly.  Laid off from that March two turn try to a return to sprinting in listed stakes.  Easily best I thought.  A near bullet, second best of 39 set him up for new trainer Mark Casse.  He pressed the pace under jockey Elvis Trujillo to the turn; was three-wide but in hand turning for home and drew off handily when asked.  WHOOO HOOOO! 

Cashed for over $30!  In the Penn Oaks, the opener at Penn National I thought Conquest Serenade could surprise.  Despite never going long or on the grass she was the 5/2 co-second choice.  Led into the lane, gave way and then was cut off, clipped heels and fell.  Appeared to be ok afterwards, but that was bad race riding by the offending horse who was DQ'd.  In the tenth at Belmont it was a one mile turf event for a claiming tag.  Aripeka was my choice.  In the winter of 2015 she'd been in graded company and was a photo finish away from winning that winter's Grade 3 Appleton.  Too much class and speed for these I thought.  Pounded down to 4/5 she was daylight in front in the stretch but was life and death to hold on - so close, but a winner none-the-less.  The finale at Gulfstream saw Vroomvroomvroom as the heavy 3/5 favorite based on a Double BSF advantage earned against $30K runners.   Dropping in to a $12.5K race today he looked easily best on the turf.  Mid-pack to the turn and then......nothing, sixth.  Finally we watched Ben's Cat come up just short as the 6/5 favorite when 3rd in the Pennsylvania's Governor's Cup at Penn.  Keith and I packed up after I made my last set of bets and made my last video of the day.  While driving home two more races had gone off and so I watched both stakes race replays.  In the third at Penn S'Marvelous was part of a four-horse-across-the-track stretch run, but he outfinished them as the 6/5 favorite to score!  In the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile at Santa Anita I initially had doubts about Heart to Heart being able to wire a quality Grade 1.  He NEEDS the lead.  But when I went through the field the only other pace horse was outside and Heart to Heart had the rail.  It was obvious that he cannot win from just off the pace.  He might win if dueling, but he HAS to be up front.  That seemed to be a foregone conclusion with the rail draw.  He went quickly to the lead, but when challenged jockey Julian Leparoux who seems to often confound my horses with "what are you doing" rides, let the other one go on with it.  Heart to Heart made a bid on the turn but was out run to the wire, a credible third.....who won?  The horse on the lead that SHOULD HAVE BEEN ME!  It was almost post time for the 4th at Penn, the featured Grade 3 Penn Mile.  My plan was to make Catch A Glimpse - the filly - my "BEST" of the day at Penn against the colts.  But two back when she won I thought, "she's a play against next time."  Then on that day, on Oaks Day, I thought she was best and made her the BET of the Day.  Again, she won to keep her turf record perfect, but I thought after the race, "she's a play against next time."  And now here she was, but again I was with her.  I watched the DRF handicappers and BOTH said the same as me, and both went with her stablemate who had been poorly ridden on the Derby undercard (yes, by Leparoux!).  So I began to wonder.  With a new rider maybe......so I stuck with the filly, but cut the bet in half.  Right to the front, never challenged and ran away as TONS the best to beat the boys, collect the $500K purse and keep her turf record unblemished. 

At least I had a winning ticket and cashed for almost $30.  It was about twenty minutes to the BET of the MONTH as I called it - Beholder in the Grade 1 Vanity Mile at Santa Anita.  Even her trainer had said this would be the toughest test she'd had in a while, though they were confident.  Because of this I was hoping for maybe 3/5 odds.  I had been thinking about this race for two weeks - not who to bet, but how to much on Beholder.  I wanted to make this a really strong play.  But a strong test, second off the shelf at a short price.  One side of me said to just be happy with a winning ticket.  But when I actually handicapped the race two stats jumped out at me.....Beholder looked ULTRA imposing.  Going back to 2013 any of the ten speed figures she'd earned, except her most recent, would win for daylight.  That last race 89 had been earned when she literally jogged around the track.  She was a winner of 16-of-21 career starts - fourteen of them stakes, thirteen graded, and nine in Grade 1 events.  Her main competition came from last year's 3yo champion, Stellar Wind.  But (a) her wins had been against far lesser; (b) her second in the BC Distaff was credible but Beholder would have been 1/9 in that field; (c) she had not raced since that November race and (d) trainer John Sadler was 0-for-his-last-26 with layoff runners like that.  So in the last few days I had a number in mind, but the only time I'd ever made a bet like this was when I bet on Untapable in the 2014 Kentucky Oaks.  Even that day, despite supreme confidence I'd made four separate bets to have four tickets.  Similarly in two recent races - one on Songbird and one on Tepin - I'd done the same, made three separate bets to reach $150.  But here, I knew, I KNEW she'd win.  Before we left I went to the windows and made a "first time ever" bet - "Santa Anita, Race 7, TWO HUNDRED TO WIN on number 2!"  One ticket, BOOM!  As I watched the wagering she was a paltry 1/9....certainly SOMEONE will be a "value" bettor and play the others.  Finally with about five minutes to post 1/5, then back to 1/9.  Oh......but then at post time Stellar Wind was bet down to 3/1 and Beholder floated to 1/5.  Considering everything I knew, in a five horse field, that was literally stealing.  She sat patiently off the longshot leader as the approached the far turn.  Glided handily to the front opened up with asking and sprinted home under mild urging as TONS the best.  WHOOOOOO HOOOOOO!  I had been hoping, before we left Gulfstream, that I was not jinxing my chances.  And I know, you can say that's silly, you're being overly superstitious, but I don't like filming a "winning comment" like I did on Beholder where I brazenly showed off the $200 ticket and then I took it a step farther and took the above photo.  I had it ready "just in cases" as the character says in "Love Actually" to post on Facebook after the anticipated win.  But I was indeed that confident.  So when she won I was happy to have THAT video and immediately called up the photo and posted it!

The $2.40 payoff meant I'd cash for $240.00 and collect a profit of $40 on a near certain winner.  But it was the thrill of watching a special champion run with an all-time-big bet that was the rush for me!  Spent the remainder of the evening watching television with Kim and Keith before both went to bed.  Then I came back to the computer to watch the final six races of the day.  I won with two of them.  Extra Credit won The Lafayette at Evangeline Downs under the lights and Edzactly wired an allowance field at Penn National.  That was interesting in that he not only set a track record but it was a good example of the power of Beyer figures.  Edzactly had been running against low-level claimers at Santa Anita.  But three of his last four Beyer figures, 84-84-84, would win for fun here.  But in allowance company?  As I wrote, "how do you compare a major league claiming event from Santa Anita with an allowance event at a smaller track like Penn?"  You use the Beyers.  He was much, MUCH the best as my twenty-third victory of the night from fifty selections (four scratches).  From the texting with Erica this morning to the late night wins, highlighted by the biggest single bet I've ever made, it was an amazing day!

Penn Mile Day - Part 2