June 1

A New Month - A Big Win - A Great Start!

It's Wednesday, so that means it's Woodbine Night Time Racing!  I truly enjoy playing the Woodbine races that don't begin until 6:45 pm.  If we had such a program in So Fla I'd be on track nearly every week for this unique atmosphere.  But when I handicapped the card yesterday I was really disappointed with the lack of quality selections.  Conversely, I have to say that I was proud of myself for not trying to force a bet in a spot where there was not one.  The opener was on the turf where nearly every one of the runners seemed to prefer the front end.  My second choice who was a meager 1-for-14 on the grass had leading rider Eurico DaSilva - came from off the pace to win and paid nearly $10.  I passed again in the second, a 2-lifetime event where the top choices were 1-for-13.  The winner was a 4/5 favorite that I didn't even put in my top three!  The third was my first selection of the evening.  It was a 6 1/2 furlong turf sprint and my top choice was Mobile App, check out his past performances......

See what I see?  Of course you don't because there ISN'T a clue to why to pick this guy.  The ONLY two times in his career that he's run on the grass he was beaten a combined 53 1/4 lengths!  Granted he'd been a good third at this level and distance last time out, but that was on the main track.  The barn's DRF stats were nothing to write home about, especially the 0-for-18 stat for runners off a short layoff.  So what gives, how did he end up on top?  Local handicapper and author Jim Mazur has a partnership with Woodbine where he offers his "Woodbine Handicapper" free online for downloading, and with it comes my favorite tool, the Woodbine 40% Club where I continually find top selections, often at fair prices.  Here's my analysis...... 

As I noted, I would not have made Mobile App a selection, much less a top selection where it not for this statistic.  But a 57% win rate is hard to ignore!  As the field approached the far turn Mobile App was mid-pack and while not out of contention, you certainly would not have been encouraged at his position, nor in his chances.  But once they turned for home I could tell he was gathering momentum and if he could find a way through I thought he'd have a chance.  At the 16th pole a narrow seam between horses appeared and jockey Luis Contreras pushed Mobile App through and they hit the front JUST as they reached the wire!  And check out the price - $11.90! 

After being the morning line favorite, that was a huge overlay.  And thanks to my practice of nearly always at least doubling the bet on any "Club play" I was cashing for nearly $60!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!  In the fourth race I was at first tempted to pass; then tempted to play the debut runner over the favorite Kate's Whistle who was my original second choice.  But when I checked Woodbine handicapper Jim Bannon's picks for the night, Kate was his "BEST BET."  I was reminded of two weeks ago when I passed on his top choice in a similar spot and missed out on a $6+ winner, so I went with him.  Late running, but non-threatening third at 6/5.  The next three races saw my top choices run out of the money - further evidenced of how it's just as important to know when you DO NOT have an edge as to when you do!  My final bet of the night was in the finale where I thought top rider DaSilva might have a chance with 4/1 Good To The Core.  He'd pressed a wicked pace in his MSW debut before stopping badly in a race where the winner came right back to score impressively.  He was 3/1 with ten minutes to post but plummeted to 9/5 at post time.  Right to the front and clear by daylight into the turn.  Then stopped badly to finish a well-beaten 12th and last.  But for the evening a sharp 1-for-3, 33%, and doubled my money!  It's a great night in Toronto, and a great way to start of the week as well as the month of June!