July 29

Two-for-Three At Monmouth!

The big Haskell weekend kicked off today and from the eight race card I only had three selections.  I had what looked like a solid play in a Monmouth 40% Club play for trainer Daniel Lopez.  When he sends out a runner off a 31-to-60 day layoff he has won at a 43% clip.  Paco Lopez was on Chub Scout today who left the gate as the 3/5 odds-on favorite.  But, he was slow from the gate and Lopez truly never asked him to even try.  A distant sixth.  Nothing until the 6th when I picked Shake D'Bone, who was 3/1 in the program, to score.  The question I posed here was, "....how strong is the Paco effect....."  The good news is that Shake D'Bone looked like a likely winner on paper, but he was being sent out by trainer Greg Sacco who is a miserable 2-for-62 at the meet and 1-for-28 with first time blinkers as D'Bone was donning today.  As they hit the far turn I was mentally shaking my head as he trailed the field.  But then he found a big kick and rallied - split horses in mid-stretch and was JUST up in time!  Whoooo hooooo! 

I had anticipated he'd be a very short price, but he was a healthy 3/1 and paid $8.60 allowing me to cash for over $20 on a minimum play!  In the 7th it was my "best" of the day.  Mo Green looked formidable on paper.  I even wrote that if we could get 4/5 it would be stealing.  She won here second career start when allowed to go two turns for the first time.  So emphatic a win in that maiden event that her connections brought her back in the Gr 2 Gulfstream Oaks.  A non-factor she went to the shelf and then was a well-beaten third off the layoff.  Last time out she was second best at this level.  Third off the shelf with a best-of-69 bullet work she looked razor sharp.  She was 2/1 according to the Xpressbet live odds board as she drew off EASILY in a confident ride.  But the entire video feed showed a blank odds box which was unusual.  Then when I clicked back to the program she was suddenly even money - AFTER the race.  Hey, what the.......The unofficial order was listed and still no numbers in the odds box.  The payoffs came up and she paid 4/5 odds.  Granted I thought that would be "stealing" but when she crossed the wire the live odds said 2/1.  Something kinda fishy here!  But I had tripled the bet so I cashed for nearly $30 on my second win from three picks!

July 27

Wednesday Night At Woodbine & Presque Isle

I tried to play more conservatively again this evening, and I didn't have that many options at Woodbine so I checked out Presque Isle.  As the evening started off I was glad I did!  The first race on my sheet was the 2nd from Erie and I liked the odds-on post time favorite, Sprawling.  He dueled into the lane, got some cushion then was all out to hold on!  WHEW!  I'll take it! 

In the 4th at PID I liked Alajwad Dancer who was stalking perfectly in third to the stretch, but ran evenly to the wire to finish third.  The opener at Woodbine went off minutes later and as they came through the final furlong my top choice #3 Regal Mark was dueling with my second choice, Salsa Bay  - head's up and head's down, PHOTO FINISH!  I thought in real time and in slo-mo I was the winner at 5/2 with a double investment, and I was!  WHOOO HOOOO!  Wait a tic, INQUIRY! 

You have to be kidding.  No they were not and while I've seen similar taken down I've seen more along this kind of "infraction" allowed to stay up.  DQ'd according to the Canadian stewards.  Booooo, eh?  But I bounced back strongly in the 2nd at Woodbine when Last Class to Go got a great ride and was clear through the stretch to win convincingly.  AND after he took a lot of early money I had upped the investment!  The solid $6.90 payoff resulted in a return of nearly $35! 

Four races and three of my picks finished first!  But that was the end of that.  In the PID finale Sam's Melody was the 1/2 favorite - dueled and faded to third late; in the Woodbine 5th Mel's Ring led to the 16th pole at 7/2 and I thought I had my score of the night.....weakened to be fourth under the wire.  And finally in the finale at Woodbine Scattered Style led to the 16th pole at a generous 3/1, and weakened late to finish 4th.

July 24

W-H-A-T  A  D-A-Y!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!

Six-for-Ten And Over $100 Profit!!!!

What a day today turned out to be!  Ironically as I sat down this morning the thought ran through my head that I just needed to be patient because since the big Saturday at Gulfstream my winners and especially my profits have been less than what I would hope for.  And I considered the fact that I know eventually I'll have one of "those days" where I have a big day - not only win percentage but a big profit.  And almost immediately after that thought ran through my mind another one popped in....hey, you never know; I've had big days with a small number of bets like today!  So, like both Friday and Saturday I only handicapped for Monmouth and Saratoga.  But today was a wee bit different in that Monmouth had a Grade 3 event and more importantly the feature at Saratoga was the long awaited appearance of unbeaten filly champion on the east coast.  And THAT had caused a lot of thinking on my part of how to bet the race.  So here's how it all played out........

In the Monmouth opener Pound Sterling looks tons the best at a short price despite he was a nine time maiden.  Today he dropped in class and shipped from NY to Monmouth with top rider Paco Lopez up.  Sure enough, he was pressed on the front but he edged clear at the top of the lane but there here came the one stalker with momentum.  Second at even money and the winner - came from a barn that was 1-for-37 at the summer meet.  WOW!  Is this the kind of day I'm going to have?  In the 2nd at Saratoga (passed the opener) I went with a Bill Mott first time starter......if you follow racing at all you should be shaking your head because Mott next to NEVER wins with debut runners.  But this one had "that look" and top national rider Florent Geroux was up.  Went off at a big 9/1 and was near the back the entire time, sixth.  Ironically the winner in the first paid $28.60 and the winner here paid $26.60 - the early double $409.50 for a $2 bet!  This does NOT bode well with Songbird a probable short-priced favorite at the "Graveyard of Favorites!"  The third at Monmouth featured another odds-on runner - this one, Moneyman was sent out by top trainer Jorge Navarro but the jockey was a mere 2-for-87 at the meet.  Hmmmmm.  Still, the other trainers were 1-for-36 this summer and Navarro is currently 32-for-79 (41%).  Just the minimum - Moneyman walked with it easily.  After I ran fourth at 7/2 at Saratoga in their third I came right back with my second winner at Monmouth.  I went back and forth about what to do with this turf claiming event because the majority of these have all run against each other multiple times.  And typically the only way I'll play a race with that kind of field is to find the "new shooter.  But Gucchi Gold had nearly always finished in front of "her friends" and more importantly she was sent out by trainer Kathleen DeMasi who is a Monmouth Park 40% Club member when Jose Ferrer is on board, like today.  I'd already cashed on her earlier in the meet.  As they turned for home she was rallying, oh this is going to be close.......JUST GOT THERE! 

The price was a nice 3/1 and so the minimum play got me back $20!  The next bet on the sheet was the sixth from Monmouth - a Maiden Special on the turf going 8 1/2 furlongs.  Three things jumped off the page as I scanned the past performances.  First, he was a MSW shipper from New York; second he was trained by Christophe Clement with long-time riding partner Jersey Joe Bravo in the irons; and third the most likely alternative in here was exiting a race where four of the eight returned today and they'd been separated by less than a length - often an indication of a weak race.  Bravo kept War Bond on the rail to the stretch, split horses and as announcer Frank Miramahdi said, "...was simply too good for these....."  I had doubled the bet and cashed for nearly $20 with my third winner from four selections on the Jersey Shore. 

The Saratoga sixth was next - this was another "think outside the box" selection because often those are the types that win here (see the results of the early double!).  So Chad Brown sent out Llanita who had already failed to produce on multiple occasions while running second several times.  BUT, after running second in two Euro tries she was the favorite in BOTH the Grade 3 Miss Grillo and the Chelsey Flower Stakes AS A MAIDEN!  She was steadied when missing at 1/5 after those and then last time out hung when closing wide going shorter like a filly that "needed a race."  Second off the shelf and stretching out I was willing to go in at a fair price.  She was 7/2 and was boxed in into mid stretch before accelerating to the wire - too late, third.  Within ten minutes we were headed postward in Momouth's 7th race.  And I was doubting my initial decision.  Killin Them Softly looked to be one of the rare Paco Lopez horses who would pay a price.  She was a front runner in a race full of early speed and she'd drawn the wide post ten.  AND we were only going 5 1/2 furlongs.  But conversely she was 9-for-18 at the distance - obviously this is her game!  At the price, with the top rider I had planned to triple the bet.  And in the early betting she was a big 4/1.  Given how I have been winning at a slower pace and I've already won three here today maybe this is the time to back off.  All through the Saratoga race I considered this.  Then finally I thought - no, stick with what you'd planned to do when you were not in the "heat of battle" during the race day.  I tripled the bet and within minutes Killin Them Softly was down to 7/5.  OK, they see what I see.  But the late money came pouring in on the other two likely winners and her odds began to drift upward.  I really thought Lopez would let her settle just off the pace from the wide draw but when the gates burst open he shot to the front, was quickly clear of the field and coasted wire-to-wire!  WHOOOOOO HOOOOOO!

And her price had indeed floated up to better than 5/2 - indeed a Lopez price winner and I had tripled the investment!  I was cashing for over $50 on my fourth win from five picks on the shore.  The featured Grade 3 Boiling Springs at a mile and a sixteenth on the turf was next.  I liked Graham Motion's Tin Type Gal - so much so that I made her my "Monmouth BEST BET" and was going "prime time" on the bet.  Again I considered.....maybe I should scale back.  I've already won with four of five, I would hate to negate my profit with a single bet.  The opening odds came up and she was the 7/5 favorite.  Hmmmm.  She was a Grade 3 winner as a 2yo and when she made her sophomore debut last time out, off an eight month layoff she was six-wide turning for home. when beaten only two lengths.  AND the winner had come right back, two days ago, at the Spa to win the Opening Day featured Grade 2 Lake George.  I'm sticking with my bet!  Jockey Trevor McCarthy had her settled near the back, but less than five from the front into the turn.  But she had no where to go.  Instead of losing ground and going wide he patiently waded on the rail and when the field turned for home the rail opened and he burst through.  It was a stretch duel with what turned out to be the post-time favorite but on the wire I was first.....AGAIN!  My FIFTH win from six selections on the Shore.  I am having a VERY good day.

The generous 9/5 price meant I'd be cashing for almost $60.00!  WOW!  Ironically as the 9th at Saratoga completed and it was time for the featured tenth, the Grade 1 Coaching Club of America Oaks, it was also time for us to leave for dinner.  The one race of the entire weekend I really wanted to watch!  Sigh.....but I try really hard to not let racing interfere with my "normal life."  So off we went. It looked like I'd be able to watch it on my phone as we were waiting to be seated.  As the betting opened champion Songbird was a prohibitive 1/9 and second choice, Carina Mia (who was 6/5 in the program) was 12/1.  I thought I'd get at least 1/5 by post time.  We got to the Sawgrass Mills Mall and after finally finding a parking spot they were loading in the gate as we walked to the restaurant.  With the rail draw Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith shot the champ right to the lead.  But jockey Julian Leparoux was not about to let her get away and he got multiple graded stakes winner Carina Mia right on her hip.  She can't run with Songbird I thought.  And as they hit the turn Smith was ready to say "GO" when Leparoux sent Carina Mia after the champ.  OH MY, on the turn they were even and turned for home dueling......this is the first time EVER that Songbird has been challenged and asked to run!  You never know how a thoroughbred will respond when challenged for the first time.  For about a sixteenth of a mile they went head up and head down and if the truth were told I truly think Carina Mia was briefly in front......

But as they hit the furlong pole Songbird displayed why she's the best 3yo filly, maybe the best 3yo period, in the country.  She didn't edge away, she found another gear and drew off leaving Carina Mia in her dust.  Two thoughts immediately came to mind as my heart was pounding......next time out, Carina Mia is a BIG TIME bet as she's clearly a very talented filly to test Songbird like this; and secondly - oh my, how good IS THIS FILLY!  The win made me six-for-ten on the day; and with the "BET OF THE WEEKEND" $100 play I would cash for $130!  Whooooo hoooooo!  I was profiting over $100 on a fabulous Sunday at the races!

Weekend Stakes Racing Highlights

July 23

Finish With A RUSH For WINNING DAY

EPIC Stakes Races Provide Winning Punch

What a day - I've said this before, and I'll say it again today.  You just never know how the day is going to turn out until it's all over.  Here's the story on this fourth Saturday in July.  I had handicapped for Monmouth and for Saratoga.  But, with my Mom, sister and niece flying in around 3 pm I knew it would not be a "full day" of racing, and certainly not a "day at the track" which would normally include handicapping half a dozen tracks or more.  I tried to be a little more conservative as it has seemed like after the huge Saturday at Gulfstream two weeks ago I've "returned to normal" results and my winning percentage is trending back to a more routine 35% or so.  So, at Monmouth I found five races where I had an investment from their ten race program and on the first Saturday program at Saratoga I had seven races with investments.  In the opener on the Jersey Shore it was a six furlong maiden special and My Country looked tons the best on paper.  In her May debut she was a best-of-the-rest second and had fired a HUGE best-of-110 bullet work.  She was sent off at 6/5 and was immediately left standing in the gate when the bell sounded.  That she closed ground and got up for second was a major accomplishment.  Circle her for next time out - especially with a drop in class.  The second at Saratoga was a 2yo maiden special on the turf going a mile and a sixteenth.  I went with Our Stormin Norman who looked like the better of the uncoupled Mark Casse entry.  It truly looked to me like the rider was holding him back like he was waiting for the other half of the entry to get into position to win before he let him run - fifth at 7/2 while the other half of the entry did indeed win.  I'm not saying that's what actually happened, but I saw a sequence very similar with a Woodbine entry for Casse earlier this summer.  The third at Monmouth was nw3-lifetime turf event and trainer Jamie Ness was sending out Tapkee.  Layoff runners for Ness have won at a 43% clip when coming back off a 30+ day layoff making this one a Monmouth 40% Club play.  Others looked to have legitimate chances so I only went in for the minimum.  Tapkee came rallying from mid-pack to edge clear late a nice price - the first winner of the day! 

The $10.20 payoff meant I'd get back over $25 for the small play - wish I'd gone double the investment as is the usual on a "Club play."  The third at Saratoga was the Grade 3 Sanford for 2yo colts.  I liked two juveniles - Random Walk who ran away "in hand" and had come back to work quickly and Bitmumen who had dueled and drew off for Todd Pletcher.  The pace numbers gave a clear edge to the former.  He went off at 8/5 and dueled on the lead.  He got clear into the lane but then Bitumen came flying by as the 4/5 favorite.  That was at 2 pm and I didn't have another selection until after 4 pm.  And that worked out perfectly since the family was due to arrive early at 2:45 pm according to the Southwest web site/flight status check.  All went well at the airport and I got home in time to watch the 7th from Monmouth.  It was a WEAK maiden claiming turf route and Eddie Plesa was dropping Saratoga Prime out of MSW company in for this $40K tag.  He was winning at a 50% clip with MSW droppers.  He was 5/2 and the favorite as they started to load but he resisted to go into the gate and it was a good five or ten minute delay.  All the while his odds kept floating up until at post time he was 9/2.  He stalked and was in prime position through the turn, then faded to fifth.  The 7th at Saratoga was my "upset special" on Oathkeeper who was dropping out of the Grade 1 Manhattan to run in this 2nd level allowance.  He was 12/1 in the program and was 17/1 at post time.  He was squeezed at the start but he was never, ever in it - eighth.  The eighth at Monmouth was the co-featured Grade 3 Jersey Shore going six furlongs.  Cashel Rock was 7/2 and was tracking the pace to the lane, then faded to sixth - just a minimum play.  The eighth at Saratoga was a nw1x allowance on the turf and I liked the Chad Brown entry - they were the prohibitive 3/5 favorite but BOTH were steadied in mid-stretch and the "closest" finisher was 7th under the wire.  The ninth at Monmouth was the Lamplighter stakes and Noble Quality was bet down to 4/5 favoritism in a five horse field.  Jersey Joe Bravo fell asleep at the wheel in my opinion as he had the perfect trip but let the leader set a leisurely pace and never pressed the issue from his stalking position AND didn't start his rally until mid-stretch.  A closing second by half a length.  You could give the winning rider credit for slowing the pace, but it was all on Bravo for not recognizing it with the best horse under him.  Booooooo.  The ninth at Saratoga was an allowance and the heavy favorite - my top choice - was My Man Sam who had been my pick in the Grade 1 Bluegrass and he was FLYING some ten wide that day to be second.  An obvious pick in an entry level allowance.  Rallied wide and late again, second best, again.  WOW. 

So at this point it was about 6 pm and so far the day had resulted in a single win from ten selections.  I'm NOT having a very good day as we sat down to dinner.  The feature at Saratoga was the Grade 1 Diana Stakes going nine furlongs on the turf.  For Father's Day Kim had got me a "Wall of Fame" photo of Tepin winning the Grade 2 Humana Distaff on Derby Day and this past Tuesday I picked it up and put her on the wall.  Well, in the field of the Diana was Dacita from the Chad Brown barn.  These two stories intersect in that the last loss suffered by the champion Tepin had happened HERE at Saratoga at the hands of.....that's right, Dacita!  She'd run well that day, her only start over the course and had worked well here since last winning the Grade 2 New Yorker.  I thought the works showed her affinity for the course and with the field being very even - in my opinion - I thought the "Tepin" angle and the HFC thoughts, she would be a good value play, especially at 5/1 on the morning line.  She immediately was at the back of the field as the rains began to fall.  And as they hit the far turn she was beginning to gain momentum, but still next to last.  I was watching this on the big screen television as it was being broadcast on NBC-SN.  Then she was fanned some seven or more wide into the lane.  Still, picking off horses!  Then she seemed to run evenly to the 16th pole and I had the thought run through my mind that I'd lost again.  But as if she downshifted into overdrive she found an acceleration that burst her to the wire JUST IN TIME!  Officially it was a photo finish, but I knew I'd won.  As they re-ran the stretch run in slowmotion all the announcers were guessing that it was Dacita on the outside and the slowmotion finish confirmed it.  WHOOOO HOOOOO! 

I'd doubled the bet so the $10.20 payoff got me a $51 return - I'm at least back in the ballpark with the bottom line in spite of only two winners on the day.  I had to wait until after nine pm for the last race of the day.  I had decided not to handicap the full Del Mar card, but I liked the featured Grade 2 San Diego Handicap which was a showdown between Bob Baffert's very talented Dortmund and the 2014 Horse of the Year and this year's $10 Million Group 1 Dubai Cup winner California Chrome.  If 'Chrome ran his race he was the best - he may be the best older handicap horse in the country.  But, (a) he was coming off the layoff since that March victory AND (b) it almost always takes a little something extra out of a horse to make the international trip from Dubai.  But the main rival, Dortmund - who was 8-for-10 in his lifetime - had not been out since November.  But he had the rail and was obviously the lone speed.  Chrome would track him and then we'd see who had the finishing kick off the vacation and if Dortmund had slowed down the pace enough.  The race unfolded exactly as expected....and then as I anticipated Chrome cruised up and glided by.  I was thinking I KNEW he was the better of the two and as they turned for home he was about a half length in front and seemed on his way to a decisive win.  But Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens and Dortmund were not done.  They came right back and the length of the stretch IT WAS ON.  It was horse racing at it's best with California Chrome just edging clear in the shadow of the wire.  I thought it was very cool that just after the race Stevens extended his had out to jockey Victor Espinoza and they exchanged fist bumps on the great race they'd just ridden in.  California Chrome was my BET of the Day and was going to make or break the day......he had been 1/9 in the early betting but by post time Dortmund was bet all the way down to 7/5 and California Chrome somehow in a five horse field floated up to 4/5 odds.  With my $50 win bet I cashed for $90.  And suddenly, I finished the day 3-for-12 (with four second place finishes) but with a profit of over $15 for the day!  YOU GOTTA LOVE RACING!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!

July 22

BEST BET On Opening Day At Saratoga Salvages The Day

It was Opening Day at historic Saratoga Race Track and I had plays at both Monmouth - as per usual - and selections in five of the races at Saratoga.  Today definitely was not a "highlight day" as far has handicapping goes, that's for sure.  In the 2nd at Monmouth I thought Mr. Logistics would be best in a maiden claiming route - sent off as the 8/5 favorite he was mid-pack to the turn, was asked to make a run and failed to make a strong enough bid to ever threaten, third.  In the 3rd I really liked Mystery Solved who was a Monmouth 40% Club play for Jason Servis with jockey Nik Juarez.  He led while under pressure into the stretch, opened up and was caught late by my second choice - a Paco Lopez runner at 2/1.  Finally in the fourth I got on the board.  Thatta Boy Girl was the 6/5 program favorite but not only was she fastest on speed figures, working on a two-race winning streak, a perfect fit for the conditions, going for a top barn, but was also a Monmouth 40% Club play for trainer Jorge Navarro.  She was cleverly spotted after beating nw3L for 3 and up at Parx last time out in this spot which was a "beaten" claimer with conditions calling for non-winners of TWO lifetime for older horses and open to 3yo like her.  Right to the front and all by herself all the way, drawing off by over fifteen lengths under the wire. 

While she was a paltry 1/5, I was happy to cash my triple investment and collect nearly $20.  In the final Monmouth play of the day I thought Discreetly Placed was TONS the best in the 6th.  She was sent off at 4/5 but was too far back, and her rally was far short of catching the wire-to-wire winner.  Turning the page to Saratoga.....in the third I went with Todd Pletcher's Chipit who was 8/5 at post time and couldn't quite catch my second choice, Roll Tide Roll.  That one broke his maiden for me at Oaklawn Park on Arkansas Derby Day in April 2015 and had not won since.....figures he holds on today right?  Then in the fourth it was my BEST of the Day at the Spa.  Santiero Italia was four-for-eight lifetime with TWO Grade 2 wins.  She had been off since last fall when she ran in back-to-back Grade 1 events, including a third behind BC Filly & Mare Turf champion Stephanie's Kitten.  This allowance turf route was obviously a prep for a stakes try later in the meet, but she still looks tons the best.  She was facing seven rivals where five of them had only three career wins!  Santiero Italia stalked the pace on the rail to the stretch, eased out for clear run and blew the doors off the field. 

Another short price on the board but I collected over $30!  That was it on a disappointing day at the Spa as TOdd Pletcher's Jumby Bay was 4th in a 2yo MSW as my prime-time play; then Made me Shiver was 4th in the opening day feature, the Grade 2 Schuylerville for 2yo fillies; and in the last play of the day Diamond Fields threatened at the top of the lane at 4/1, then faded to eighth.

July 20

Last Pick WINS - Nearly Draws Me Even

Wednesday night at Woodbine and I leave the racing with a good feeling after I won the last play of the night.  It was interesting in that Kim and I went for a walk about 6:30 and it occurred to me that I had races this evening (that I'd handicapped yesterday) and had forgot to bet them!  When we got back I watched the first race and I had picked Rocco Point because not only was he a Woodbine 40% Club play but was one of the few who did NOT want the lead.  The gates open and he shoots right to the front and duels with the 3/5 favorite.....weakens to be the best of the rest 2nd. Sigh......We watched "Big Brother" and "America's Got Talent," and then Kim went to bed.  I stayed up and watched "American Gothic" and as I was turning out the lights I recalled, duh, I had races!  So I returned to the computer and watched the replays.......led to the stretch as the 6/5 favorite in the 2nd with State Jewel before being run down late, 2nd again.  In the Deputy Minister Stakes Songs and Laughter had the perfect tracking trip to the turn as the 6/5 favorite, then faded to be a well-beaten 4th.  But finally in the 6th, I won!  Glasgow Kiss was one of several who seemed to be a "need to lead" and would set the table for a closer.  But as is so often the case I thought this one was the speed of the speed.  And, more importantly, I use Jim Mazur's "Woodbine Handicapper" to look for picks that the public would normally ignore, like this one.  Trainer Mark Fournier has several "club angles," the most powerful of which is when jockey Eurico DaSilva rides - over the past two Woodbine seasons he's won an amazing 71% of the races when the top jock is on board!  I doubled the bet.  Glasgow Kiss went right to the front and was clear in mid-stretch when he started tiring.  The wire was coming.....PHOTO FINISH!  I was nearly certain I'd won and the photo confirmed it!  The $6.40 payoff meant I'd collect to come within $3 of breaking even with just a single win. 

The highlight of the day however was this afternoon when I met one of my former students, cutie Giovanna for lunch today.  So proud of yet another former WISE student who is following her project from high school as a career path. 

July 17

Win The Del Mar Feature

But That's About It

We spent our final full day in Orlando - and today was the highlighted baby shower for Lauren & Brad.  It was an 0-for day at Monmouth.  I ran second in the first with 3/5 favorite Hissy Fit who lead in deep stretch to start the day and 2nd in the last bet of the day in an allowance sprint where Credo was my BEST of the Day at 2/5 and also was clear in deep stretch.  Sigh.  But I won two races at Del Mar later in the day.  A nice price on Carlsbad Mountain at 9/2 and paid $11.40, and in the featured Grade 2 Eddie Read Midnight Storm was able to stretch his speed off a win the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile to hold on at nine furlongs as the 8/5 favorite.

July 16

Delaware Handicap Day

Today's big feature race on the national calendar is the Grade 1 Delaware Handicap for 3yo fillies going a mile and a quarter.  I had seriously looked into flying up to Delaware for the weekend, and had even looked at it seriously a second time for a summer weekend racing adventure for my good buddy Keith and I to meet here.  But in the end I opted to come to Orlando for the shower weekend.  While the ladies were at the pool most of the afternoon I was "at the races" virtually via my Xpressbet account.  I had selections today from Monmouth as per usual, Delaware because of their featured event and supporting stakes, and I had handicapped both the Del Mar card and Indiana Grand where they were running the companion Grade 2 races, the Indiana Oaks and Indiana Derby.  The day started slowly as I was third in back-to-back races on the Shore.  The first with a huge price of 14/1 on All Even and then as the even-money favorite in a maiden claiming turf mile race.  At Delaware I was a non-threatening fifth at 8/5 and then I had an hour and a half before the next race.  Brad and I watched a movie while the girls were at the pool and then I was back in action a little before 4 pm.  I was happy to get into the winner's circle with the 1/2 favorite Noble Ready in the sixth at Delaware.  It was of interest that this was a TWO-YEAR-OLD turf route - the first I'd seen this summer.  Trained by Christophe Clement, Noble Beauty had been a best-of-the-rest second in her six-furlong turf debut at Belmont.  With Clement having two in here, it would seem that Joel Rosario, who has ridden over 125 times for Clement, would have had his pick of the two and he was on the favorite.  Right to the front and GONE.  I missed in the 7th at Monmouth when Shea D Girl was an even fourth in a turf sprint for a tag at even money.  But in the 8th at Monmouth I decided to up the ante on Sue Stones.  I had noted in my analysis that she would certainly be overbet with Paco Lopez taking over and the class move.  I was concerned about her making her ninth start, but the money came pouring in and she was hammered to 3/5 favoritism.  I upped to bet to make her a "prime time" / "best of the day" on the Shore.  She dueled between horses and I was concerned that she'd give way yet again, but the top rider would have none of that and he got her home as much the best!  

Cashed for over $30 with my second winner on the day.  Moments later it was time for the 8th at Delaware and my top choice, Catcha Rising Star was being strongly bet - down from 7/2 in the program to 3/5 favoritism at post time.  This was particularly significant in this nw3x allowance spot because she'd only been on the turf twice WITHOUT winning, but to be fair with very strong Beyers.  And today she was facing multiple turf winners.  The "unwritten rule" is often, "turf winners win turf races" and so my plan had been to bet the minimum.  But with the strong support at the windows I doubled the play.  Wire to wire as much the best.  It was approaching five pm and we planned to head out to dinner at a nice Orlando restaurant, but I had asked the family if we could wait until the next after the next race as it was my BET of the DAY, and the featured Grade 1 Delaware Handicap.  I had won with multiple graded stakes winning I'm A Chatterbox in the prep for this, the Obeah Stakes and some people had expressed some concern about her slow come-home time considering today she would be stretching out to the classic mile & a quarter distance.  But, her regular rider, top national jock Florent Geroux (who had NOT been on board that day but had come to town for today) had been quoted by trainer Larry Jones to "not worry" because she tends to lose focus if all alone through the lane.  The only filly in here that I thought might provide some competition was Paid Up Subscriber who was coming off a 6/1 upset of the Grade 2 Fleur de Lis at Churchill Downs.  As the betting opened Chatterbox was a prohibitive 1/9.  But as we got within ten minutes of post time she'd floated up to a "fair" 1/5 price.  But then 'Subscriber started taking support from those "value" players who thought I'm A Chatterbox was not a good bet at this short price.  I have often written about my thoughts on this that I do subscribe to the theory of NOT betting the most likely winner because of the price.  I only bet when I think I have a decided edge and if it's the winner, it's the winner.  But there are many out there that do not do that and I am often thankful for their money :)  As the fillies approached the gate I was stunned to see 'Subscriber drop to 2/1 and 'Chatterbox go up another click to 2/5.  This is highway robbery!  Then as the final filly loaded the odds clicked one more time and now 'Subscriber was 9/5!  WHAT THE????? And I'm A Chatterbox was an overinflated 3/5.  The gates opened and immediately the favorite veered in towards the opening onto the main track from the 10 furlong chute.  To be fair she pushed the #3 runner inward and the #2 got squeezed as the #1, Paid Up Subscriber, came out and then took a pretty good shot to her hip.  But also, if you watch the head-on view it was not nearly as bad as it looked.  The #3 never had her stride broken and the #1 was hindered for perhaps a stride and as they straightened out she was in front of Chatterbox by a length or two as they moved through the stretch for the first time.  The only one who may have been compromised was the #2 who was 70/1 and never a factor.  They all had a fair chance to run their race and the two most impacted were already in front of the favorite.  I was watching with my son Brad who immediately said "hey that's not right" - and I knew that this could lead to an inquiry.  As they hit the far turn I'm A Chatterbox was full of run but Geroux was not letting her run yet as she pressed the leader.  When he let loose she exploded to a lead of nearly a half dozen lengths.  Paid Up Subscriber improved her position to be a best-of-the-rest 2nd but never a threat.  As Chatterbox returned to the winner's circle Geroux and all the connections were all smiles but NOW the rider of 'Subscriber lodged an official objection.  I took it as a good sign that there was never an INQUIRY posted, but took it as worrisome when the stewards continued looking at multiple views of the start over and over again.  Finally, "Ladies and Gentlemen.......the stewards have ruled.....there will be no change in the order and the result stands official.  

WHOOOOO HOOOOOO!  In what should have been a meager payoff/profit I was not collecting $80 and profiting a big $30.  On a multiple graded stakes winner for a 40% trainer in a short six horse field.  AMAZING - how about THAT for value?  :))))))  As the officials reviewed the video at Delaware the 2nd went off at Del Mar and my top choice, Passionate Emotion slipped up the rail and drew off as much the best!  I took a quick shower and we headed out to dinner.  Our daughter-in-law who is oh-so-pregnant met some girlfriends in town for the baby shower tomorrow so she did not come along as Kim and I took out our son Brad, daughter Julie, and our friend Karen Martin who came with us to go to the shower for Lauren.  

Once we got back to the house we watched a movie and then I went with my daughter Julie to stay at her apartment for the evening.  Once we arrived I settled in and watched the remainder of my races.  The first race I had on my selection sheet was the co-featured Grade 3 Kent Stakes for 3yo colts at Delaware.  Top North American trainer Todd Pletcher was showing great confidence in sending the improving American Patriot into this graded stakes off a last-out win in entry-level allowance company - especially after showing next to nothing in the Grade 2 American Turf at CD back on the Derby undercard.  I liked his chances at 6/1 in the program.  As I opened up the replay I noted he was the 8/5 favorite of the crowd.  He was handled expertly as he stalked the pace while saving ground on the rail.  As heads turned for home he eased off the rail and outside the leader then cut loose with an explosive kick to win.  As soon as they crossed the wire the track announcer told everyone that American Patriot had just set a new stakes record!  

Would have loved to have even had half the program odds, but still I cashed for nearly $30 with my sixth win of the day.  But a series of disappointments followed.  At Del Mar She's A Big Winner at a nice 9/2 was a no-show 8th as Brad Free's Best Bet; in the Indiana Distaff prohibitive favorite Cash Control was 2nd at 4/5.  This in a race where TWO of the last 233 starts run by her rivals could match the last two Beyers she'd earned, one of them in a Grade 3 win!  Sigh.....Missed at Indiana two more times in the Warrior Veterans Stakes and again in the MH George when both were well beaten.  In the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon at Del Mar Nancy from Nairobi was a rallying third, too late from too far back.  I got my final score of the day in the Grade 2 Indiana Oaks when Family Tree rebounded to score as the 7/5 favorite.  Much like the Cash Control race, of the 48 races run by her rivals tonight, only one could challenge her LAST THREE BEYER figures.  She stalked into the lane and drew off as the decisive winner.  

In the final race of the day I went against the favorite, my second choice, Cupid who had disappointed in the listed Easy Goer on the Belmont undercard and went with improving The Player.  He was FLYING late and just missed at 4/1 - to Cupid!  For the day an outstanding 7-for-17, a whopping 41% winners.  But I just missed breaking even - the Cash Control race or the Indiana Derby, either one wins and I'm a winner for the day......such is the racing game, gotta love it.

July 15

Opening Day at Del Mar!

While I'm excited about the opening of Del Mar, I'm looking forward to Opening Day at Saratoga this coming Friday even more.  And I am enjoying thinking about the fact that a year from now when Del Mar opens, it will begin a "Del Mar Handicapping Project" that will carry through to the 2017 Breeders' Cup which will be at Del Mar outside of San Diego and we will be there!  For Friday racing I handicapped the Monmouth card, as per usual and then I handicapped the opening day races at Del Mar.  I only found three races on the Jersey Shore that provided enough of an edge to wager on.  I must say I was happy with my ability to only bet the races today that I truly felt I had an edge in.  In the third, a maiden claiming event on the turf it looked to me like Girine would be a solid choice.  While he didn't have great form, he was getting top rider Paco Lopez today and more importantly the other seven horses......six were a combined 0-for-98 and the other was 0-for-4 but beaten a combined 75 lengths in those starts being sent out by a barn that is 1-for-39 at the meet!  Right to the front as the 7/5 favorite, but nailed in deep stretch to be second.  Boooooo.  In the 6th Rusty Halo looked to me like the obvious choice and was 6/5 in the program.  The crowd bet another down to 4/5 favoritism, and I wondered if I'd missed something.  But he stalked the pace to the top of the lane, blew by, opened up and then held on to the wire.  

The big 2/1 price allowed me to collect $15 on the minimum play.  In the 7th, and my last bet of the day at Monmouth, my choice was Latigo Trail to take this claiming turf sprint.  The 5yo had not been out since October, but if he was ready he was going to kiss this field goodbye.  A prototype Paco Lopez kind of runner - class dropper off the NYRA circuit (allowance to today's $25K claiming event).  And as the rail runner he was the LONE SPEED.  Should have bet more as he burst to the front and was L-O-N-G gone.  

My double investment got me back $23 and I'm a big-time winner at the Shore with 2 wins from 3 selections and a solid profit.  I wish I could say the same for Del Mar.  I was 7th at 3/1 in the 3rd, with a pick that was Brad Free's BEST of the day and another handicapper had labeled as the "obvious" single in the Pick Six sequence.  I won the 5th when Grandma's Hands came from dead last to blow by the turf allowance field despite a five wide trip into the lane.  Went with an upset in the 7th when Victory Call was 9/1 - ran like it to be seventh.  Then in the featured Oceanside Stakes, my top choice Moonlight Drive was bet down from 7/2 to 2/1.  Pressed to the stretch, opened up a clear lead, then was outfinished to the wire, 2nd.  I was 9th at a short 2/1 price in the ninth race and in the finale Langham would have been a Del Mar "day-maker" as he was flying late at 9/2 with my double investment, but just fell short, second again.  For the day a good 3-for-9.....I'll take it!

July 13

A FABULOUS Night Of Handicapping

First Night At Presque Isle A BIG Success!

After last Wednesday evening's results I was determined to be "more selective" in my betting choices tonight, and I also wanted to begin filtering in some races from Presque Isle Downs in Erie because my next big target for a racing adventure is to go there for their graded stakes weekend in September - I just booked round trip flights for Kim and I this past weekend!  And the results of my handicapping were not only excellent but proved in microcosm one "hidden gem" of my handicapping that I think often goes unnoticed (not that anyone pays a lot of attention, let's be real!).  There were eight races on both programs and first post in Erie was at 5:25.  I didn't have anything until the third, a starter allowance going 4 1/2 furlongs.  But there I thought I had an excellent opportunity; in fact, Marquee Pal Gal was my "Bet of the Night!"  As I said when I handicapped the race and wrote the analysis, it's a horse race and sometimes horses just don't run to form.  But Marquee Gal Pal won a $40K claiming event as the second choice last time out and tonight was cleverly spotted in a starter allowance with conditions for runners who'd been in for a $16K tag!  Every other runner had consistently run at that level giving Marquee Gal Pal a huge class advantage.  It wasn't the smoothest of beginnings for her, and in a race going just 4 1/2 furlongs that was worrisome.  As they went through the turn she was on the rail and was needing a seam while chasing a loose on the lead runner.  But when heads turned for home she kicked into high gear and the hole opened......GONE. 

I felt fortunate that she paid 1/5 because throughout the betting she was the prohibitive 1/9 favorite.  One play at PID in 2016.....ONE WIN!  A half an hour later was the opener under the lights in Toronto and I liked Patsy's Star in this 2-lifetime claiming sprint.  As I told Kim afterwards, sometimes you just have to look at the numbers, because typically they do not lie when it pertains to human connections.  Several years ago I made note from the Gulfstream Handicapper by Jim Mazur the gigantic number of losing entries sent out by the low percentage trainers and the disproportional number of winners sent out by the top five trainers.  Good trainers when most races.  Such was the case in the Woodbine opener where Deep Blue Sea was clear the class of the race - she was making her first start for a tag and first time in restricted company.  The barn was a so-so 12% which was not an immediate "toss," but the rider had compiled a 99/5-15-8 record, that's a lowly 5% winners, at the meet.  I just couldn't bet that.  Conversely Patsy's Star was repeating the move that had earned her that first win.  Last November she debuted in MSW company, where she set the pace and weakened to be third.  The next start she jumped her speed figure fifteen points and went wire-to-wire.  Tonight, she was coming off of a pace setting effort when she weakened to third - sound familiar?  That was in her first start for this $40K 2-lifetime level.  And to seal the deal, the winning rider last fall was top jockey Eurico DaSilva and he was getting on tonight.  She broke sharply and pressed the front running long shot to the turn before taking over.  Meanwhile, Deep Blue Sea, who had been hammered down to 4/5 favoritism was stalking the leaders in third on the rail.  Then, as only a 5% rider can do, he got the horse in trouble, had to slam on the brakes and checked all the way back to next to last.  Once free 'Sea came flying on the outside, but it was too late, even at tonight's 6 1/2 furlong distance, Patsy had skipped clear and held on! 

The generous $8.80 payout meant I'd cash for over $22 on my second win of the night!  I went back into the living room and watched "Big Brother" and "America's Got Talent" - out two most favorite summer-time reality shows - with Kim.  Then about 10:30 pm I returned to watch the replays from my last three selections.  In the 8th and finale at Presque Isle Pretty Surprise looked to be LONG GONE as the program favorite.  She had been loose on the lead before - daylight clear at the pace call in her last four, but always stopped.  But tonight not only was she dropping in class, but she was cutting back to 5 1/2 furlongs.  If ever she would wire a field, it was tonight.  She burst from the gate and was never challenged! 

Three-for-three as I cashed for over $15 and closed out the PID card with a perfect 2-for-2 record in Erie :)  The fifth at Woodbine was a two-turn (8 1/2 furlongs) Maiden Special event and I was doubling down on King of Kensington.  If you went strictly by the numbers it was clear that he'd was the obvious choice.  In his debut, sprinting, he broke outward, rushed up to the lead and dueled before weakening to third, BUT he finished in front of eight rivals that day.  His Tomlinson figures indicated he would be fine at a distance of ground and the barn was an AMAZING 50% with stretch-outs with a big $3 ROI.  The switch to top rider DaSilva just made the pick even more enticing.  Apparently the distance switch was no issue with handicappers who made "the king" a short-priced 2/5 favorite.  He stalked the leader while well in hand to the turn and then ran away as easily the best. 

Cashed for another near $15 with my fourth win from four selections!  The final play of the day was in the sixth at Woodbine - third at 4/5 when Occasional View ran evenly as a Woodbine 40% Club play.  The story of the night which I alluded to is this......if one were to look through my records it's clear that I play a lot of short priced horses.  If you look carefully, it's probably more accurate that I WIN with a lot of short priced horses, but who doesn't?  In reviewing the month of June I had 134 selections and of those 94 went off at 2/1 or less; 60 (close to half) at even money or less!  So one could argue that I do well because I bet a lot of favorites.  However I would point out two things in general....first you can't play favorites and have an ROI of $2 or better like I do, so I DO get some price plays; and secondly I think the numbers would point out that I do remarkably well at deciphering a true and legitimate favorite from a false favorite.  Such was the story last night.  Of the sixteen races, and sixteen favorites on this evening's two cards, six of them won - a pretty standard 38%.  I played four favorites and won with three of them - an MUCH better 75% win rate!  So of the twelve races where I did NOT play the favorite, three won, a lowly 25% and a losing proposition.  THAT is how you make money on short-priced favorites......you have to be able to tell which ones are likely winners.  And perhaps even more importantly, it's a "winning play" when you recognize that the favorite is NOT a likely winner and do not play!

July 10

Close An Excellent Weekend By Winning Jersey Shore Feature

Still riding high on the BIG DAY Saturday and the sweep of the three Grade 1 races at Belmont.  What a day!  So I only had one winner on the day, but it allowed me to nearly break even for the day.  It was, as seems to nearly always be the case, a great story!  The feature at Monmouth today was the Wolf Hill Stakes scheduled to go 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf.  But with torrential rain on Saturday the turf races were all moved to the main track.  I had handicapped the race for turf but made mention of one runner that looked like a standout to me if moved to the main track.  Look at two of the five remaining runners that went to post and you tell me who the favorite was.....

Well, duh, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that CLEARLY Rainbow Heir prefers the dirt right?  Here's a guy that is 7-for-14 on the main track and has ONE turf start which wasn't bad, but he's obviously a dirt sprinter.  And if just his dirt preference isn't enough to lure you today, scan down through his past performances and you see he's a multiple Monmouth stakes winner.  By contrast Saratoga Dreamer is OBVIOUSLY a turf sprinter - while he does show a win on an off track (vs. a short field of four where he was the lone speed in a SLOWLY run race) his best figures are clearly on the turf.  OK, to be fair perhaps you don't like that Rainbow Heir is coming off a barn change and a layoff.  Consider these DRF stats that were on display.....trainer Jason Servis is 32% with a $2.26 ROI with runners making their first start out of his barn; he's 21% with a $2.43 ROI with runners off a long layoff like this; and with jockey Antonio Gallardo he's winning at a 50% clip with an ROI of $4.30.  Yet somehow, in some alternative universe, handicappers sent Saratoga Dreamer off as the prohibitive 4/5 favorite and let Rainbow Heir leave the gate at a huge 2/1 price.....in a five horse field.  Well the outcome was settled within the first 16th of a mile when Rainbow Heir used his obvious early speed to open up by daylight - and just as handicapper Brad Thomas had said ON AIR prior to the race - speed on the rail was playing great today - he never looked back.  The double investment led to a return of $30 to close the weekend down. 

Oh and another great decision.....DRF handicapper made Super Duker his BEST of the day in the finale as the lone speed in his opinion.  I had initially thought this race was a complete washout with nothing but cheap speed with bad trainers and jockeys.  After the Rainbow Heir win I briefly considered going with him, but then when I looked at the pps again I could see I was right and Mr. Peck was wrong.  Super Duker quit like he does every time at 9/5 and as I anticipated it was a rogue outsider at 17/1 that won!  A great bet to make that race a "NO BET!"  To top off a great day, my lovely wife returned from a week in Pennsylvania this evening! 

Del Mar Opens Friday as the highlight of next week's action!

July 9

July 9th - Belmont Stars & Stripes Day

A B-I-G Day At The Races!

For a brief moment I considered NOT going to Gulfstream to play the races today because I knew of my more than thirty selections I only had very few live races and I would be sitting in front of a TV monitor no better (in fact the quality is worse) than sitting at home in front of my computer.  But it was the "getting out of the house" / "going to the track" and playing with real money that won me over in the end.  So I left the house about 11:30 am and by the time I pulled into the garage a little after 7 pm it had been one of "those days" that is a red-letter winning day!  I got started with a winning selection immediately in the opener at Belmont.  This was a six furlong Maiden Special for two-year-olds (you can tell we must be getting close to Saratoga when the juveniles stretch out to the common 3/4 of a mile distance!).  While several of these looked to have the potential to be good runners, it was Chad Brown's Bobby On Fleek that caught my eye.  First, Brown had been on the Saratoga 40% Club list a few years ago with all MSW starters and so I always am on the lookout for his 2yo maidens; but mostly it was the sizzling bullet work Bobby had put in when stopping the clock in a smokin' :59.3.  He was confidently handled 3-wide by jockey Irad Ortiz and when he let him go he ran away from the field in a dazzling performance.  He was the 6/5 post time favorite and I only had the minimum on him, but it was a win to kick off the day.  I missed at Monmouth when Guiness Spice was a clear 2nd over the muddy going behind a loose-on-the-lead winner in maiden claiming company.  But the opener at Gulfstream - one of only three live plays locally - provided my next winner.  Blue Harbor showed a string of Beyer figures that demonstrated his "typical" race would require a lifetime best effort from any of his rivals today.  He went right to the front and when challenged at the top of the lane he responded and held the field safe.  Another 6/5 winner with a minimum play, but I'm 2-for-3!  I handicapped Delaware today because they had several stakes races and I got my third winner less than five minutes after the Gulfstream score when Racetrack Romance wired the field.  He was a no-brainer with a Double BSF advantage, working on a 3-race win streak.  He was pounded late at the windows down to 2/5 favoritism....at least I doubled the bet!  I was 2nd at 5/2 in Belmont's third when Adulator dueled through the stretch and lost the photo by the narrowest of margins.  The winner cut off the third place finisher in mid-stretch and there was an objection and an Inquiry......maybe.....no.  I got my first big score at Monmouth in their third with Bay Numbers.  This was a maiden special for two-year-olds and you knew Bay Numbers would be a short price with top rider Paco Lopez riding for Eddie Plesa.  Maidens from this barn were scoring at a big 33% with a $3.38 ROI in their second start like this.  AND Bay Numbers was the only one in here with racing experience; AND he came with an excuse when he refused to load in that first start.  Listed at 6/5 in the program I doubled the bet.  Somehow the crowd let him go off at 5/2 while they bet a first-time starter down to favoritism for a barn that is 1-for-45 at the meet.  Go figure!  My son Jeff and I had just been talking about how Lopez scores at a price day after day here.  Bay Numbers was MUCH the best, handily holding off the 2/5 favorite and paid $7.60 - I got back nearly $40!  Second at Parx when Jorge Navarro's Brothersofthetime got cooked in a speed duel to set up the late run of the 8/5 favorite and then second at Woodbine in a suspicious finish.  Conquest Streetkid was the 1/2 favorite and was coasting on the lead - literally not even being asked as they turned for home.  And when the real running started it sure looked to me like the rider was waiting for his uncoupled stablemate to come flying up.  When that one collared him at the 16th pole THEN the jock asked and he finished with interest to be second.  Didn't look good I have to say.  But I quickly got over it when I won my second race at Delaware.  Last Resort was the prototype of an entry-level allowance winner:  lightly raced, on the improve and in good form.  He took the lead as they hit the backstretch and was never threatened.  So as I turned the first page of four pages of selections I had won FIVE races already and run second in the other four! 

Just like the start of the day, the start of the second page was an immediate success!  I was playing Arlington today (and sporting an Arlington polo!) because today was Arlington Million Preview Day and there were four graded stakes serving as final preps for the big races on Million Day next month.  The opener was a five furlong sprint for two-year-olds and in Chicago the king of the two-year-olds is trainer Larry Rivelli.  He's having a sparkling summer with an overall win rate that matches his high 2yo win percentage (27%).  The typical Rivelli first timer bursts from the gate and leads them on a merry chase, and no one is better than that than ET Baird who is winning at an amazing 37% for the barn.  Through the early betting and as the horses approached the gate Well Abled was the short priced favorite.  But in the final two minutes his price floated up to better than 2/1 causing me to grin as I knew if I was right I was going to make more money than I should!  The gates opened and Well Abled was slow from the gate and immediately near the back.  ET didn't hesitate he hit the "GO" button and before the field had gone ten jumps he had cleared the field and was daylight lengths clear.  The only concern I had was if the slow start would leave him wanting in the stretch, but not a single runner ever threatened him! 

And the $6.20 payoff meant I'd cash for more than $30 on my sixth win already.  The fourth at Gulfstream was a maiden claiming event, and this race proved yet again that when handicapping horse racing it's all about THIS race and how THESE specific horses match up.  Pomme d'Or had earned Beyers of 58-59-60 in his last three and while those won't win you any stakes races, they were far and away the best numbers in the field.  Throw in the fact that top local rider Tyler Gafflione was riding and she just looked really strong.  She was also Ron Nicoletti's "BEST" of the day.  I made her my best bet locally.  She stalked the pace into the stretch and when asked she exploded as I watched from the rail and scored EASILY! 

My prime time play earned me over $30 as I doubled my original planned bet for the score.  I posted the above photo of me on Facebook and remarked that it was just barely 2 pm and I had already won SEVEN races on the day. 

I know that this has nothing to do with my winning and losing but it seemed ironic that following my beaming pose I went on a six-race losing streak that lasted just over two hours :(  Disco Partner faltered to 4th in a nw2x turf sprint at Belmont and Lost Raven was a non-threatening 4th in Belmont's Grade 3 Victory Ride - my second choice, the Santa Anita invader Coppa won.  I KNEW he was well meant because that trainer rarely ships across the country.  The one bet I wish I had back.  At Monmouth Posse Dreamin was the 7/5 favorite as the new shooter in a group of "old friends" - I thought he'd gun to the front and wire the field, but instead he was taken off the pace and ran evenly to be fifth.  In the first of the graded events at Arlington I liked the two Europeans Faufiler and Marypop.  I thought they were nearly equal in their chances to win and felt that the former would be the favorite so I went with 3/1 Marypop.  Faufiler won, Marypop was an even fifth.  The Grade 3 Dwyer at Belmont in their 7th race was my best bet of the day as I really liked Economic Model.  On the race analysis the NY handicappers both agreed he was coming off two big efforts but had faced much lesser competition and had dream trips.  They were right, third at 6/5 while never close enough to threaten.  I finally broke through with a win thanks to Jim Mazur's "Monmouth Handicapper" and the Monmouth 40% Club.  The inclimate weather had led to all races coming off the turf and my choice, Stevie Q had three of four career starts on the grass with strong figures.  BUT more importantly he was trained by Chad Brown.  Over the last two years Brown has won at better than 40% with ALL his horses, so to be a club play they just have to be entered by Brown!  That's the angle!  So in spite of the surface change I stuck with the "Club play."  Sent off at 4/5 he pressed the leader to the stretch then took off as tons the best!  In spite of the long streak of non winners I turned to page three with a 3-for-9 record on the second sheet of selections.  In the opener at Santa Anita Miss Bliss was the even-money favorite and I thought had a big class edge over her 3-lifetime rivals.  She stalked the lead to the stretch, edged to the front but was outfinished to be second.  The eighth at Belmont was the Grade 1 Belmont Derby for three-year-old colts going a mile and a quarter on the turf.  I thought that this was a wildly competitive race and there was no clear favorite - which to me meant if I liked someone I stood a fairly good chance to make a little money.  A solid handicapping angle in graded turf events is to look at the European invaders.  The better they are and/or the better the connections, the more likely they are to handle the American competition.  Aidan O'Brien is one of the best trainers in the world and he does not ship "across the pond" unless he has a legitimate runner, so when I saw two of his colts in here my attention was piqued.  Of the two I liked Deauville the best.  Since a decisive maiden score he'd seen nothing but Group races and had WON a Group 3 with two second place finishes in Group 2 company.  The only problem I could forsee is the far outside post 13 in a big field like this.  But the program odds of 4/1 seemed a fair price considering his talent and the post.  They were off and immediately Euro rider Jamie Spencer asked Deauville to show a little speed.  By the time they hit the first turn he was sitting just off the leader and I KNEW I had a big chance.  Through the far turn none of the betting favorites were close and now the sprint for home was on!  Spencer had a daylight lead and had enough horse to hold off a fast closing finisher.  And best of all, check out the price......

OH MY!  The big payoff netted me nearly $75 and I had to capture this moment on film......

This win clearly will cover the six race losing streak I was thinking.  How ironic because I had plays in all the Belmont big stakes and in NONE of them did I think my pick would be the short-priced favorite - most unusual in graded stakes company!  The initial feeling that this is going to be a good day, which had melted away during the losing skein, was coming back.  Regardless, I had a "highlight moment" for the day and I would walk away happy.  The 8th at Woodbine was Jim Bannon's best but I liked 17/1 Pulled the Goalie.  Turning for home I was third with a real chance....no.  Faded to ninth.  In the sixth at Arlington The Pizza Man was the prohibitive 1/2 favorite.  He has won 10-of-13 here on his home course including last year's Arlington Million.  But when he returned to action this year in the Grade 1 Gulfstream Handicap he disappointed - and that was with Javier Castellano who rarely loses a big race on a big horse; then in his most recent he was again less than his best in the Grade 2 Wise Dan.  I wrote that this race would define his present talent - is he a step slow now or will the return to Chicago light him back up?  He rallied at 1/2 and to be fair it was a four-horse photo finish, but I never really thought he was the winner - third.  The second of the three Grade 1 events at Belmont was next, the Grade 1 Suburban.  Effinex had won this race last year then run a strong 2nd to American Pharoah in the Breeders' Cup Classic at a huge price.  Off of that effort he won the Grade 1 Clark at Churchill Downs.  When he came off the bench to run 3rd in the Santa Anita Handicap I chalked that up to the long layoff.  I had him when he got his revenge over Big Cap winner Melatonin in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap.  But the issue for handicappers today was his most recent.  On June 18th - we were at sea in Alaska, sigh..... he'd been the favorite in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster.  BUT he was going without regular rider Mike Smith who stayed in California to ride superstar sensation 3yo filly Songbird (to a big win by the way with my $100 win bet from the ship!).  Gary Stevens is a Hall of Fame rider and you can't blame him, but Effinex broke sluggishly, was wide throughout and too far back off the pace.  When asked to run he had nothing.  Today Smith was back on board.  Which Effinex would we get?  I felt certain we'd get the "real" Effinex today.  With the talented Mubtaahij in the field - second behind California Chrome in the $10 Million Group 1 Dubai World Cup - I thought we might get a fair price.  Never imagined that we'd get 2/1 which he was at post time.  He was the lone stalker behind outsider Samraat - a NY bred who had not won since taking the 2014 Gr 3 Gotham as a 3yo.  But the pace was pedestrian and when the two of them turned for home Samraat had something left.  Stretch duel........ 

In the final 16th the classy Effinex was just too good.  The big $6.30 payoff coupled with my triple investment meant I'd cash for nearly $50 on my second Grade 1 win of the day here!  The tenth at Monmouth was scheduled to be a five furlong turf sprint, and I liked Jorge Navarro's Tiscano.  Making his third start for the top barn he figured to be at his best and he was dropping out of a $25K spot for this $16K spot.  He was taking a lot of money and it was a scratched filled race - I stuck with the pick and upped the bet.  Right to the front and kissed this field goodbye!  In the 7th at Arlington Messi looked as good as any in what I wrote was a "wide open 81st running" of the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap.  He was a solid 3/1 and was in prime position turning for home, but he had no response what so ever - third.  The third at Santa Anita was not a big priced winner, nor a big stakes win, but it had to be one of the most INTERESTING wins of the day and a great lesson in handicapping.  Long ago as I learned this great game one of the prime fundamentals is to always start by reading the conditions of the race.  Probably nine times out of ten the conditions simply say in text what the listed condition of the race is....for example the race may be titled "Claiming $25K nw3L" and then the conditions read, "For 3yo and up who have never won three races lifetime."  But every once in a while you get something unusual.  For two winters in a row at Gulfstream I've had a nice score in an allowance race where the conditions were for "non-winners of a race since...." and a specific date is listed, and there is a perfect match for that date.  But this two-turn dirt race had THE most unusual conditions I've ever seen - check out my analysis......

While it's true that some of the others had a mixed bag of turf/synthetic with their dirt races, Enduring Erin was CLEARLY a perfect fit for this unique condition!  As the field hit the far turn she was still close up but did not look like a threat....then the rider shook the reins and she coasted up three wide without taking a deep breath and sprinted home as MUCH the best! 

The generous 5/2 post time odds allowed me to cash for nearly $40!  The race wasn't even official when I hurried outside to watch my third an final live bet of the afternoon.  The 10th was a Maiden Special event going a mile on the turf.  Street Gun was the 3/2 favorite but looked to be pinned on the rail in trouble through the turn.  As I watched from the rail he found a seam and burst to the front as TONS the best!  WHOOOO HOOOO - I am having a good day! 

I had bet the feature at Delaware, the Grade 3 Delaware Oaks for 3yo fillies but when I made the bet I said simply, $10 to win on #2.  As I walked away from the window I saw on the screen that the NINTH was loading into the gate at Delaware!  Uh Oh!  Luckily for me a horse got loose delaying the start of the race and I switched the bet to RACE 10.  But as I "watched" the 9th from Delaware it was pouring so badly you could not see any of the horses.  This can't be a good thing - so I went up and canceled the bet all together - which worked out well because my filly went off as the favorite and didn't fire over the sloppy surface.  Good decision Mr. Mark!  The next story is probably the favorite story of the day!  One of my favorite fillies, Catch A Glimpse was running in Belmont's Grade 1 Belmont Oaks.  I told this part of the story when she won the Grade 3 Penn Mile a month ago against the colts.......When Catch A Glimpse won the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf she capped a perfect year on the turf and was 2yo Filly of the Year and Canadian Horse of the Year.  Her first start back came in the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride at Gulfstream and she was a decisive winner as TONS the best as my top choice.  I made her a BET of the DAY selection in the Grade 3 Appalachian at Keeneland in her next start.  While she did win and justified my confident bet, there were two fillies that appeared to be getting to her as they neared the wire and I thought at the time that Catch A Glimpse would probably be a "play against" in her next start.  Well, that came on Kentucky Oaks Day when she ran in the Grade 3 Edgewood.  I initially tried to find someone to beat her but she looked to good.  ANOTHER Bet of the Day investment and again she won.  But AGAIN she looked to be running out of steam late - NOW she's a "play against" next time.  So when she was sent to the Grade 3 Penn Mile against the colts I thought today might be the day.  I watched the DRF video and BOTH Mike Beer and Dan Illman remarked that they had thought she looked vulnerable in her last two starts - as I had thought - and yet she was still unbeaten on the turf.  So today, trying the colts they took a stand against her.  I backed off my bet but still had her prime time that day and she won again.  So here we are today and so the first issue is that it's now been three straight races where late in the race she "holds on" but looks like she might be vulnerable next time out.  Add in today she was going beyond 8 1/2 furlongs for the first time - a full, classic distance of a mile and a quarter. AND she drew the far outside post.  TODAY is the day to go against, and sure enough both Beer and Illman remarked that she keeps winning in spite of everything and she's now 7-for-7 on the turf.  What had captured my attention however was two things.  First, I'd read that her trainer said publicly that she's known around the barn as "Little Tepin" as Mark Casse trains both of these fillies and to be compared to Tepin who's probably the best filly/mare on turf in the WORLD exiting a win at Royal Ascot is high praise indeed.  And then the second thing that I thought significant was that Catch A Glimpse looked to be the LONE SPEED of the race.  If she gets to the front, all alone, the distance won't matter, I thought, especially with her perfect turf record and the fact that she obviously loves winning (and therefore probably would hate losing!).  Today is the day to make some money!  So, I wasn't going to make her a "BET of the DAY" kind of investment, but being a typical $5-$10 bettor, a "prime time" play of $20 is a high vote of confidence in my books.  She was the 2/1 favorite through most of the betting and that's much better value than the four previous starts where she went off at 3/5, 3/5, 3/2 and 8/5.  As they approached the gate she floated up to 5/2 - oh my!  The gates opened and quick as you please she was over to the rail and in control.  A long shot pressed her on the outside, but (a) I wasn't worried about that filly, and (b) I could tell that jockey Florent Geroux was sitting chilly.  On the turn Catch A Glimpse but that pace rival away and spurted to a three length lead.  I knew I was home free.  Even though the late runners were making it close, this seems to be her M.O., almost as though she's teasing her rivals to let them think they can catch here, but they can't! 

I was beaming from ear-to-ear and thinking about Beer and Illman shaking their head again while I got great value - nearly $90 on my winning ticket on an unbeaten Breeders' Cup turf winner.  What was the crowd thinking?  :)))))  In the final of the four stakes races at Arlington my pick, Ken & Sarah Ramsey's Oscar Nominated was a very close second at 5/2.  Then I flipped screens just in time to see the finish of the finale at Woodbine.  I looked at where #2 finished and he was off the board - doggone it; I started to write down the odds and result and then I noticed that on my sheet my pick was NOT #2, it was #9......well, who won?!!!! They were showing the slow motion of the final 16th and who's that flying down the outside in the turquoise saddle cloth.....#9, my pick Conquest Dynasty!  WHOOOO HOOOO! 

My fifteenth winner on the day!  The last two races were disappointments as multiple graded stakes placed Firing Line didn't fire in a Santa Anita allowance and Private Zone failed to defend his title in the Grade 3 Belmont Sprint at 6/5 when 4th after leading into the stretch.  But, for the day I was a super 15-for-33, an excellent 44% winning average and I had profited over $125!  A great day indeed!