A FABULOUS Night Of Handicapping
First Night At Presque Isle A BIG Success!
After last Wednesday evening's results I was determined to be "more selective" in my betting choices tonight, and I also wanted to begin filtering in some races from Presque Isle Downs in Erie because my next big target for a racing adventure is to go there for their graded stakes weekend in September - I just booked round trip flights for Kim and I this past weekend! And the results of my handicapping were not only excellent but proved in microcosm one "hidden gem" of my handicapping that I think often goes unnoticed (not that anyone pays a lot of attention, let's be real!). There were eight races on both programs and first post in Erie was at 5:25. I didn't have anything until the third, a starter allowance going 4 1/2 furlongs. But there I thought I had an excellent opportunity; in fact, Marquee Pal Gal was my "Bet of the Night!" As I said when I handicapped the race and wrote the analysis, it's a horse race and sometimes horses just don't run to form. But Marquee Gal Pal won a $40K claiming event as the second choice last time out and tonight was cleverly spotted in a starter allowance with conditions for runners who'd been in for a $16K tag! Every other runner had consistently run at that level giving Marquee Gal Pal a huge class advantage. It wasn't the smoothest of beginnings for her, and in a race going just 4 1/2 furlongs that was worrisome. As they went through the turn she was on the rail and was needing a seam while chasing a loose on the lead runner. But when heads turned for home she kicked into high gear and the hole opened......GONE.
I felt fortunate that she paid 1/5 because throughout the betting she was the prohibitive 1/9 favorite. One play at PID in 2016.....ONE WIN! A half an hour later was the opener under the lights in Toronto and I liked Patsy's Star in this 2-lifetime claiming sprint. As I told Kim afterwards, sometimes you just have to look at the numbers, because typically they do not lie when it pertains to human connections. Several years ago I made note from the Gulfstream Handicapper by Jim Mazur the gigantic number of losing entries sent out by the low percentage trainers and the disproportional number of winners sent out by the top five trainers. Good trainers when most races. Such was the case in the Woodbine opener where Deep Blue Sea was clear the class of the race - she was making her first start for a tag and first time in restricted company. The barn was a so-so 12% which was not an immediate "toss," but the rider had compiled a 99/5-15-8 record, that's a lowly 5% winners, at the meet. I just couldn't bet that. Conversely Patsy's Star was repeating the move that had earned her that first win. Last November she debuted in MSW company, where she set the pace and weakened to be third. The next start she jumped her speed figure fifteen points and went wire-to-wire. Tonight, she was coming off of a pace setting effort when she weakened to third - sound familiar? That was in her first start for this $40K 2-lifetime level. And to seal the deal, the winning rider last fall was top jockey Eurico DaSilva and he was getting on tonight. She broke sharply and pressed the front running long shot to the turn before taking over. Meanwhile, Deep Blue Sea, who had been hammered down to 4/5 favoritism was stalking the leaders in third on the rail. Then, as only a 5% rider can do, he got the horse in trouble, had to slam on the brakes and checked all the way back to next to last. Once free 'Sea came flying on the outside, but it was too late, even at tonight's 6 1/2 furlong distance, Patsy had skipped clear and held on!
The generous $8.80 payout meant I'd cash for over $22 on my second win of the night! I went back into the living room and watched "Big Brother" and "America's Got Talent" - out two most favorite summer-time reality shows - with Kim. Then about 10:30 pm I returned to watch the replays from my last three selections. In the 8th and finale at Presque Isle Pretty Surprise looked to be LONG GONE as the program favorite. She had been loose on the lead before - daylight clear at the pace call in her last four, but always stopped. But tonight not only was she dropping in class, but she was cutting back to 5 1/2 furlongs. If ever she would wire a field, it was tonight. She burst from the gate and was never challenged!
Three-for-three as I cashed for over $15 and closed out the PID card with a perfect 2-for-2 record in Erie :) The fifth at Woodbine was a two-turn (8 1/2 furlongs) Maiden Special event and I was doubling down on King of Kensington. If you went strictly by the numbers it was clear that he'd was the obvious choice. In his debut, sprinting, he broke outward, rushed up to the lead and dueled before weakening to third, BUT he finished in front of eight rivals that day. His Tomlinson figures indicated he would be fine at a distance of ground and the barn was an AMAZING 50% with stretch-outs with a big $3 ROI. The switch to top rider DaSilva just made the pick even more enticing. Apparently the distance switch was no issue with handicappers who made "the king" a short-priced 2/5 favorite. He stalked the leader while well in hand to the turn and then ran away as easily the best.
Cashed for another near $15 with my fourth win from four selections! The final play of the day was in the sixth at Woodbine - third at 4/5 when Occasional View ran evenly as a Woodbine 40% Club play. The story of the night which I alluded to is this......if one were to look through my records it's clear that I play a lot of short priced horses. If you look carefully, it's probably more accurate that I WIN with a lot of short priced horses, but who doesn't? In reviewing the month of June I had 134 selections and of those 94 went off at 2/1 or less; 60 (close to half) at even money or less! So one could argue that I do well because I bet a lot of favorites. However I would point out two things in general....first you can't play favorites and have an ROI of $2 or better like I do, so I DO get some price plays; and secondly I think the numbers would point out that I do remarkably well at deciphering a true and legitimate favorite from a false favorite. Such was the story last night. Of the sixteen races, and sixteen favorites on this evening's two cards, six of them won - a pretty standard 38%. I played four favorites and won with three of them - an MUCH better 75% win rate! So of the twelve races where I did NOT play the favorite, three won, a lowly 25% and a losing proposition. THAT is how you make money on short-priced favorites......you have to be able to tell which ones are likely winners. And perhaps even more importantly, it's a "winning play" when you recognize that the favorite is NOT a likely winner and do not play!
The generous $8.80 payout meant I'd cash for over $22 on my second win of the night! I went back into the living room and watched "Big Brother" and "America's Got Talent" - out two most favorite summer-time reality shows - with Kim. Then about 10:30 pm I returned to watch the replays from my last three selections. In the 8th and finale at Presque Isle Pretty Surprise looked to be LONG GONE as the program favorite. She had been loose on the lead before - daylight clear at the pace call in her last four, but always stopped. But tonight not only was she dropping in class, but she was cutting back to 5 1/2 furlongs. If ever she would wire a field, it was tonight. She burst from the gate and was never challenged!
Three-for-three as I cashed for over $15 and closed out the PID card with a perfect 2-for-2 record in Erie :) The fifth at Woodbine was a two-turn (8 1/2 furlongs) Maiden Special event and I was doubling down on King of Kensington. If you went strictly by the numbers it was clear that he'd was the obvious choice. In his debut, sprinting, he broke outward, rushed up to the lead and dueled before weakening to third, BUT he finished in front of eight rivals that day. His Tomlinson figures indicated he would be fine at a distance of ground and the barn was an AMAZING 50% with stretch-outs with a big $3 ROI. The switch to top rider DaSilva just made the pick even more enticing. Apparently the distance switch was no issue with handicappers who made "the king" a short-priced 2/5 favorite. He stalked the leader while well in hand to the turn and then ran away as easily the best.
Cashed for another near $15 with my fourth win from four selections! The final play of the day was in the sixth at Woodbine - third at 4/5 when Occasional View ran evenly as a Woodbine 40% Club play. The story of the night which I alluded to is this......if one were to look through my records it's clear that I play a lot of short priced horses. If you look carefully, it's probably more accurate that I WIN with a lot of short priced horses, but who doesn't? In reviewing the month of June I had 134 selections and of those 94 went off at 2/1 or less; 60 (close to half) at even money or less! So one could argue that I do well because I bet a lot of favorites. However I would point out two things in general....first you can't play favorites and have an ROI of $2 or better like I do, so I DO get some price plays; and secondly I think the numbers would point out that I do remarkably well at deciphering a true and legitimate favorite from a false favorite. Such was the story last night. Of the sixteen races, and sixteen favorites on this evening's two cards, six of them won - a pretty standard 38%. I played four favorites and won with three of them - an MUCH better 75% win rate! So of the twelve races where I did NOT play the favorite, three won, a lowly 25% and a losing proposition. THAT is how you make money on short-priced favorites......you have to be able to tell which ones are likely winners. And perhaps even more importantly, it's a "winning play" when you recognize that the favorite is NOT a likely winner and do not play!
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