July 2 - 3

The BET of the Day ROLLS Home!

SIX 2nd Place Finishes Spoil Final Outcome

After going back and forth about driving out to Gulfstream for the day or not I finally decided to play the races online.  Having spent two full weeks on the go, a lunch date with my Cypress Bay gal-pal Shari Bush, and swollen ankles from the air trip all added up to help me decide it was in my better interests to just stay home and relax.  It seemed like I wasn't going to miss a beat from my excellent June handicapping numbers after winning twice yesterday and scoring with both of my first two selection.  In the opener at Gulfstream Park Tzi Our Destiny kicked off the Summit of Speed card with a easy win in a nw2L turf event as the even money favorite and a half an hour later La Peregrina kicked away to win the opener at Monmouth over their turf course in a Maiden Special turf event. 

Unfortunately both of those were minimum plays and when I doubled the investment in my next two plays I ran third at both Gulfstream and Monmouth....and at fair prices of 3/1 and 5/2.  The fourth at Gulfstream was my next play and it was the BET of the DAY!  The seven furlong Azalea for 3yo fillies looked to be all Dearest who had won three of four career starts with the lone loss a third place finish in a Grade 2 event where the winner, Cathryn Sophia had gone on to win the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks and the runner-up, Lewis Bay, had come back to win the Grade 2 Gazelle!  As I wrote in my analysis, a loss here by Dearest who's LAST THREE Beyer figures were better than any lifetime best of her rivals would have been headline-making.  She was perfectly positioned to the turn and then took off as much, MUCH the best. 

My original plan had been to play $30 to win - as I've said before I'm reluctant to go "all in" online - but as post time approached I truly thought she would be an emphatic winner.  I don't mind saying that I DID consider the fact that dating back over the last year I've made over 1,800 bets and only 46 of them have been "BET of the Day" level ($50 or higher).  Of those I have won 39 times for a net profit of over $850.  Knowing that makes me very careful about when and where I make those kinds of plays.  Make it FORTY big wins for Mr. Mark!  The second at Belmont was scheduled to go as a nw3L turf sprint and I liked the chances of Royal Saint who had never been in for a tag - but he had also never been on the turf either.  The Tomlinson ratings said he'd enjoy the inner course.  Heavy rains on Friday forced this one off the softened turf course so I considered backing off.  But with his class drop and prior dirt experience I stuck with the double investment.  It was a thrilling stretch duel and on the wire he got his nose down first and I had my fourth win of the day! 

Three losses followed when Souper Salary was a distant sixth at a big 5/1 with Paco Lopez at Monmouth, followed by Hammer's Terror disappointing at even money in the Miesque's Approval Stakes at Gulfstream on the turf and topped by Kabang finishing a solid 4th at 6/1 at Belmont.  The sixth at Monmouth was a claiming event and at first glance to the average handicapper, My Little Darlings would appear to be an obvious "play against."  She was a woeful 22/2-9-3 for her career and was plunging from $15K to today's $5K level - WARNING....WARNING Mr. Smith as they'd say on the old black-and-white TV series "Lost In Space."  But here were the key facts to someone who's very familiar with how things go on the Jersey Shore:  (a) she was being sent out by top trainer Jorge Navarro who's winning at a big 35% overall; (b) jockey Jonathan Gonzalez is the barn's "go-to" rider this summer as he's scoring at a big 45% clip for them; and (c) there was very little competition today for 'Darlings.  It helped my confidence level that all last winter at Gulfstream, where Navarro was the 2nd leading trainer - behind 12x training title winner Todd Pletcher - he won with these kind all the time .... cheap speed on the drop and away they'd go to emphatic scores.  When the crowd hammered My Little Darlings at the windows I added to my bet.  As anticipated she stalked the leaders and when Gonzalez said "GO!" she was gone. 

My fifth win of the day from just ten selections.  I'm having a wonderful day!  My second disappointing runner-up finish in a Gulfstream at odds-on in a stakes race came in the Grade 3 Carry Back where Awesome Banner was nailed on the wire as the 2/5 favorite.  He'd never lost in a sprint race, including a win HERE in the Grade 3 Swale Stakes.  He was clear in the stretch before being nailed by a runner who'd run well in stakes but NEVER won a sprint.  Sigh......Missed again when Taralena was my upset pick to steal a mile-and-a-quarter turf allowance at Belmont.  Led from the opening bell to deep stretch when caught by the even-money favorite.  Really?  Odds-on in front and I can't hold on....play against and the price play can't hold on.  Sigh......The string of disappointments went on for another two horus as I ran 2nd, third twice, and fourth twice - all with added money investments.  Finally, in one of the highlights of the day, I nailed the winner of the featured event at Belmont.  The Grade 1 Mother Goose was the lone top level event on the national calendar today and it was for three-year-old fillies.  I knew everyone would be all over the program favorite Rachel's Valentina.  I'd scored twice with her last summer and she'd been a good second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies behind unbeaten heroine Songbird.  But since then she just didn't seem to be as good as advertised.  Lewis Bay was in this field, but she appeared to me to be a much better filly against the winter competition at Aqueduct.  This set the race up for an upset play and I found that one in Off the Tracks.  First, she was the "other Pletcher" filly as he sent out Rachel's Valentina; but more importantly she'd been a surprising second in the Grade 1 Acorn on the Belmont undercard behind top 3yo filly Carina Mia.  I loved the bullet work for this and I made her the play.  Former jockey Richie Migliore commented on the live broadcast as they were warming up that she looked fantastic on the track and seemed to be sitting on a big effort.  Indeed she was as she went right to the front and when challenged turning for home she opened up to score decisively!  I would have liked a bigger price, but she had been listed at 3/1 in the program, so to have held that number was good enough for me! 

Cashed for over $40 on the final win of the afternoon! Disappointments ended the afternoon when Mr. Jordan was an non-threatening third in the Grade 3 Salvatore Mile at 4/5 and Birdatthewire was also third at 6/5 in the Grade 2 Princess Rooney.  VERY disappointed that Danzig Candy was caught late as the prohibitive 1/5 favorite in the Grade 3 Affirmed at Santa Anita making his first start for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert.  Those losses sealed the deal on the day's bottom line.  But I did get some "bounce-back" redemption as I had four selections at Evangeline Downs under the lights in their Louisiana Legends stakes card.  I went two-for-four with the picks.  In the La Legends Soiree Believe In Bertie went right to the front in the one-mile turf event and never looked back! 

The final 2nd place finish of the long day came in the La Legends Mademoiselle when Smitty's Cougar looked to be the obvious choice, but was nipped on the wire at 4/5 odds in a photo finish.....sigh.  I thought I had a real chance at a score in the La Legends Turf.  Eight-year-old String King has ruled the La-bred turf stakes for several years and was a FOURTEEN time winner on the turf including three of these kinds of stakes showing in his pp's.  Nine-for-eighteen overall on the turf and 1-for-1 locally....how could he be 4/1?  Could have been these facts or that he was dropping out of three straight graded/open events but the crowd made him the 8/5 favorite and he did not disappoint.  I guess in retrospect that price was "stealing," but regardless I had my seventh and final win of the day.

Sunday July 3 - Queen's Plate Day
I was excited to add the Woodbine selections to my Sunday Monmouth picks as they had multiple stakes on the card.  I took Kim to the airport as she was heading to Erie to visit her family, but before I could make it home she called to tell me her "save you some money" / budget flight on Allegiant Air had been cancelled.  That's right, not delayed, just cancelled and they only run one flight A WEEK to Akron (a two hour drive to Erie - doesn't sound like such a deal, eh?).  Add to the drama that I had noted I was low on gas but had plenty to get her to the airport and return home.  NOW the gas gauge showed less than 30 miles range as I pulled into the airport garage, and when we headed home it was flashing three horizontal lines - I guess this means I'm out?  I did NOT want to start the day stranded on the highway and was fortunate to get to a gas station in time where the car took 18.4 gallons of gas (in an 18 gallon tank!).  When I got home I watched the replay from my first pick, the opener at Woodbine and was elated to watch Puntarooskie score in a nw2x sprint. 

He'd been 6/1 in the program, but was bet down to 2/1 favoritism.  Still, I'll take the $30 to kick off the Sunday racing. Only one other score on the day however, which included an upset of turf sprint heroine Lady Shipman at 1/2 in the Grade 2 Highlander - and shut out at Monmouth.  The only other win came in the Charley Barley Stakes where Conquest Enforcer ran to his odds - and I had doubled my originally planned $10 bet.