July 10

Close An Excellent Weekend By Winning Jersey Shore Feature

Still riding high on the BIG DAY Saturday and the sweep of the three Grade 1 races at Belmont.  What a day!  So I only had one winner on the day, but it allowed me to nearly break even for the day.  It was, as seems to nearly always be the case, a great story!  The feature at Monmouth today was the Wolf Hill Stakes scheduled to go 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf.  But with torrential rain on Saturday the turf races were all moved to the main track.  I had handicapped the race for turf but made mention of one runner that looked like a standout to me if moved to the main track.  Look at two of the five remaining runners that went to post and you tell me who the favorite was.....

Well, duh, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that CLEARLY Rainbow Heir prefers the dirt right?  Here's a guy that is 7-for-14 on the main track and has ONE turf start which wasn't bad, but he's obviously a dirt sprinter.  And if just his dirt preference isn't enough to lure you today, scan down through his past performances and you see he's a multiple Monmouth stakes winner.  By contrast Saratoga Dreamer is OBVIOUSLY a turf sprinter - while he does show a win on an off track (vs. a short field of four where he was the lone speed in a SLOWLY run race) his best figures are clearly on the turf.  OK, to be fair perhaps you don't like that Rainbow Heir is coming off a barn change and a layoff.  Consider these DRF stats that were on display.....trainer Jason Servis is 32% with a $2.26 ROI with runners making their first start out of his barn; he's 21% with a $2.43 ROI with runners off a long layoff like this; and with jockey Antonio Gallardo he's winning at a 50% clip with an ROI of $4.30.  Yet somehow, in some alternative universe, handicappers sent Saratoga Dreamer off as the prohibitive 4/5 favorite and let Rainbow Heir leave the gate at a huge 2/1 price.....in a five horse field.  Well the outcome was settled within the first 16th of a mile when Rainbow Heir used his obvious early speed to open up by daylight - and just as handicapper Brad Thomas had said ON AIR prior to the race - speed on the rail was playing great today - he never looked back.  The double investment led to a return of $30 to close the weekend down. 

Oh and another great decision.....DRF handicapper made Super Duker his BEST of the day in the finale as the lone speed in his opinion.  I had initially thought this race was a complete washout with nothing but cheap speed with bad trainers and jockeys.  After the Rainbow Heir win I briefly considered going with him, but then when I looked at the pps again I could see I was right and Mr. Peck was wrong.  Super Duker quit like he does every time at 9/5 and as I anticipated it was a rogue outsider at 17/1 that won!  A great bet to make that race a "NO BET!"  To top off a great day, my lovely wife returned from a week in Pennsylvania this evening! 

Del Mar Opens Friday as the highlight of next week's action!